UAV Roadmap - Unmanned Aircraft & Drones

UAV Roadmap 2000 - Section 6.0Roadmapfaster processors in the future, this time could be reduced to near real time (20 min) using1.5 GHz processing, or to real time (1 sec) with 1800 GHz processing speeds. Moore’sLaw, as shown in Figure 4.4-1, predicts such levels of processing speed should becomeavailable in 2002 and 2016, respectively, but the latter date is within the period duringwhich the limits of silicon-based processing will reach its limits, so real time mapping ofsea mines may have to depend on alternative forms of computing. The same limit isencountered to reduce IFSAR data to DTED level 5 maps of a 150 x 150 nm area in nearreal time (2009) and real time (2022). Both examples illustrate an important caveat of thetrends developed in section 4 and applied to operational tasks here, that of recognizingthe limits to a given technology’s growth.The upper half of Figure 6.2-1 plots the predicted appearance of these 19 metricsover the next 25 years, with the date of each centered within a 5-year window ofestimated initial availability for fielding.6.2 UAV Roadmap for 2000-2025By bringing together a plot of the predicted appearance of the listed metrics with atimeline of current/planned DoD UAV programs (Fig. 2.4-1), a roadmap of opportunitiesfor applying emerging capabilities to forthcoming UAVs is created. This roadmap (Fig.6.2-1) displays 19 such opportunities over the next 25 years.6.3 Comparative Costs of Manned vs. Unmanned AircraftAny full and fair comparison of manned and unmanned aircraft costs mustconsider the three phases of any weapon system’s life cycle cost: development,procurement, and operations & support (O&S). Any such comparison should also ensureequivalency in scenarios and missions are used, but without making one conform to theother’s tactics or mode of operation. It is not necessary that a single UAV replicate itsmanned counterpart’s performance; what matters is whether the UAV can functionallyachieve the same mission objectives more cost effectively.6.3.1 Development CostsUAVs have been developed for DoD use through (1) contractor initiatives (e.g.,Shadow 200), (2) defense acquisition (milestone) programs (e.g., the Aquila UAV), and(3) Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations, or ACTDs (ex: Predator). Theshorter ACTD timelines (3-5 years vice a decade or more) and lessened oversightrequirements have provided an alternative means for several recent UAV programs torapidly reach Milestone II. The comparisons below (Table 6.3.1-1) show the adjustedcosts to reach first flight, whether for manned or unmanned aircraft, by traditional orACTD approach, has historically been essentially the same. This is reasonable given thatthe engineering required to get a new design airborne is driven more by aerodynamicsand propulsion than by human factors and avionics.51