Educational planning and human resource ... - unesdoc - Unesco

Systems analysis approach
damental importance of an analysis of population distribution and
trends. It is particularly important to have some conception of the an-
nual rate of population growth (and whether this rate is increasing or
remaining constant), the age distribution of the population (with par-
ticular reference to those under 14 years of age), and the approximate
size of the active population. Some calculation of the probable size
and composition of the labour force is also essential, although with
rare exceptions reliable labour force statistics are non-existent in most
developing countries. Here it is important to distinguish between the
labour force in the modern or monetized sector of the economy and
that in the traditional sector.
In nearly all of the developing countries, one can assume that popu-
lation is growing at rates in excess of 2 per cent per year, and in most it
is climbing toward 3 per cent or more. This suggests that in most cases,
at least two-fifths of the population is likely to be less than 14 years of
age and hence not considered to be in the labour force. It also means that
a high proportion of the population is of school age-a matter of great
consequence for education planners.
The manpower analyst, of course, is particularly interested in the pre-
sent and future size of the labour force, its growth rates in both the
traditional and modern sectors, and the factors which determine labour
force participation of various groups. Of necessity he must also be con-
cerned with the consequences of policies to limit population growth. For
example, a reduction in birth rates wil not immediately lead to a re-
duction in the labour force, but at the same time it will probably increase
a country’s propensity to save and to invest in productive activities.
Population control, therefore, in addition to its other obvious benefits,
may contribute directly to greater labour pr0ductivity.l In the author’s
judgement, the human resource development strategist must now give
closer attention to population problems and assume greater responsibil-
ity for proposing population control measures.
Mounting unemployment in urban areas is probably the most serious
and intractable problem facing today’s newly developing countries. Un-
employment rates as high as 15 per cent of the labour force in the modern
sectors are not uncommon, and even in rapidly industrializing countries,
unemployment rates seem to be rising rather than falling. The reasons
are fairly clear. Relatively high wages in the modern sectors act like a
1. For further elaboration of this point, see Ansley J. Coale, ‘Population and Eco-
nomic Development’ in American Assembly, The Popularion Dilemma, Engle-
wood Cliffs, N. J., Prentice Hall, Inc., 1964, pp. 46-69.
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