2013 Wind Project Performance White Paper ... - DNV Kema

2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperHow is the industry doing?Robert Z. PooreMay 7, 2013

Background• Industry has a reputation for projects that underperformrelative to pre-construction energy production estimates• DNV KEMA has been documenting the magnitude of thisunderperformance since 2006 using a database of energyestimates from many consultants and actual project energyproduction• Energy estimates from DNV KEMA have historically beenmore accurate than other consultants• Significant changes in other consultants energy estimatingmethodology have been made since ~2008• Have these changes been big enough?2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 20132

Database Characteristics• 150 Projects• Preconstruction energy estimates from multiple organizations (at least 5)700Number of Project Years600500400300200198454Project years of Data:2001-2009: 6522012-2012: 112Added in 20132012 Data set100090222001 - 2009 2010 - 2012First Full Year of Commercial Operation2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 2013

Database CharacteristicsBy RegionProject SizeWestCentralEastTXCanada>100 MW

Database CharacteristicsTurbine SizeFirst year of operation301.5 MWNumber of Projects25201510502001200220032004200520062007200820092010First Full Year of Project Operation20112012Turbine sizes and installation dates are generally representative ofthe market.2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 20135

Project Average Results for 2001-200916%14%12%Industry-wide Shortfall – 9%DNV KEMA Shortfall – 3%Other Consultants Shortfall – 12%% of Total Projects10%8%6%SignificantCurtailmentOther ConsultantsDNV KEMAExpected Distribution4%2%0%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%Project Average Actual Energy / P50 Estimate 2001-2009120%125%130%135%140%145%2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 20136

Project Average Results for 2010-201235%30%25%Industry-wide Shortfall – 3%DNV KEMA Shortfall – 0%Other Consultants Shortfall – 4%% of Total Projects20%15%10%SuspectedCurtailmentOther ConsultantsDNV KEMAExpected Distribution5%0%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%Project Average Actual Energy / P50 Estimate 2010-2012120%125%130%135%140%145%2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 20137

Project Year Results for 2001-200911%10%9%Industry-wide Shortfall – 10%DNV KEMA Shortfall – 3%Other Consultants Shortfall – 12%8%% of Total Project Years7%6%5%4%3%2%1%SignificantCurtailmentOther ConsultantsDNV KEMAExpected Distribution0%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%125%130%135%140%145%150%Actual Energy / P50 Estimate 2001-20092013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 2013

Project Year Results for 2010-201220%18%16%Industry-wide Shortfall – 2%DNV KEMA Shortfall – 0%Other Consultants Shortfall – 3%14%% of Total Project Years12%10%8%6%4%SuspectedCurtailmentOther ConsultantsDNV KEMAExpected Distribution2%0%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%125%130%135%140%145%150%Actual Energy / P50 Estimate 2010-20122013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 2013

Project Performance by First Full Year of Commercial OperationAverage Annual Production vs. P50 PreconstructionEstimate1.41.31.21.110.90.80.70.6 Significant0.5Curtailment2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012First Full Year of Commerical OperationIndividual ProjectMedianSuspectedCurtailment2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 2013

Conclusions & Observations• Bias in 2010-2012 reduced compared to 2001-2009 with industry average bias of3% (1% if curtailed projects ignored)• When projects with curtailment are ignored, 2010 to 2012 results show DNVKEMA and other consultants are in close agreement on average• Recent experience tells us there are sometimes still significant differencesbetween consults when estimating wakes, topographic effects and “performancelosses”. There is work to be done in these areas.• More attention to curtailment risks would improve P50 results• Uncertainty distributions used by industry seem to capture the uncertaintiesappropriately.• We need more data! Consider providing us with data to build a more robustdatabase to documents the industry’s ability to estimate wind projectperformance• If you would like a copy of the white paper, please give me your card.2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 201311

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