2013 Wind Project Performance White Paper ... - DNV Kema

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Project Performance by First Full Year of Commercial OperationAverage Annual Production vs. P50 PreconstructionEstimate1.41.31.21.110.90.80.70.6 Significant0.5Curtailment2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012First Full Year of Commerical OperationIndividual ProjectMedianSuspectedCurtailment2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 2013
Conclusions & Observations• Bias in 2010-2012 reduced compared to 2001-2009 with industry average bias of3% (1% if curtailed projects ignored)• When projects with curtailment are ignored, 2010 to 2012 results show DNVKEMA and other consultants are in close agreement on average• Recent experience tells us there are sometimes still significant differencesbetween consults when estimating wakes, topographic effects and “performancelosses”. There is work to be done in these areas.• More attention to curtailment risks would improve P50 results• Uncertainty distributions used by industry seem to capture the uncertaintiesappropriately.• We need more data! Consider providing us with data to build a more robustdatabase to documents the industry’s ability to estimate wind projectperformance• If you would like a copy of the white paper, please give me your card.2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 201311
Page 1 and 2: 2013 Wind Project Performance White
Page 3 and 4: Database Characteristics• 150 Pro
Page 5 and 6: Database CharacteristicsTurbine Siz
Page 7 and 8: Project Average Results for 2010-20
Page 9: Project Year Results for 2010-20122

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