2013 Wind Project Performance White Paper ... - DNV Kema

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Background• Industry has a reputation for projects that underperformrelative to pre-construction energy production estimates• DNV KEMA has been documenting the magnitude of thisunderperformance since 2006 using a database of energyestimates from many consultants and actual project energyproduction• Energy estimates from DNV KEMA have historically beenmore accurate than other consultants• Significant changes in other consultants energy estimatingmethodology have been made since ~2008• Have these changes been big enough?2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 20132
Database Characteristics• 150 Projects• Preconstruction energy estimates from multiple organizations (at least 5)700Number of Project Years600500400300200198454Project years of Data:2001-2009: 6522012-2012: 112Added in 20132012 Data set100090222001 - 2009 2010 - 2012First Full Year of Commercial Operation2013 Wind Project Performance White PaperMay 7, 2013
Page 1: 2013 Wind Project Performance White
Page 5 and 6: Database CharacteristicsTurbine Siz
Page 7 and 8: Project Average Results for 2010-20
Page 9 and 10: Project Year Results for 2010-20122
Page 11 and 12: Conclusions & Observations• Bias

2013 Wind Project Performance White Paper ... - DNV Kema

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