Small Arms and Light Weapons - Harry Frank Guggenheim ...

The importation of weaponry to regions of conflict perpetuatesviolence, impedes peacekeeping and development efforts,and undercuts the ability of the parental generation to socializeyouth.pushed the small arms problem onto the globalstage in the mid-1990s. Laurance, surveying theevidence, concluded that “while it is true that peoplebent on killing each other will do so regardlessof the weapons they possess, it is also true that acritical mass of weapons can be the impetus forstarting a major conflict.” 3Two case studies that received much attentionshaped the early response to this question.Researchers from Human Rights Watch arguedthat all four phases of the Rwanda conflict of the1990s—the invasion of Rwanda by Tutsi exiles, thediffusion of weapons to Hutus within Rwanda, thegenocide itself, and the raids by Hutu militia afterbeing expelled—were possible only because of thesupply of small arms and light weapons. 4 The secondcase pointing to the direct effect of armsbuildups on the outbreak of armed violence isKosovo. In 1997 the government of Albania collapsedand, in the subsequent instability, its significantarsenal of small arms and light weapons waspillaged. More than half of these weapons left thecountry, and many wereacquired by the KosovoLiberation Army (KLA).A very tense situation inKosovo, a province ofSerbia in which 1.7 millionethnic Albanians,though a majority, livedunder the domination of200,000 Serbs, very soonexploded into armed violence.The massive acquisitionof arms did notcreate the KLA's willingnessto use violence, butit did give them the meansto do so on a broad scale. 5The most comprehensivestudy of the impactof small arms and lightweapons on the outbreak and escalation of conflict,Arms and Ethnic Conflict, concludes that “armsaccumulation by ethnic groups or in conflict zonesseems a relatively good predictor of impending violence.”6 The authors regard their findings as preliminary,however, and call for research to clarifythe impact of weapons on governments' and ethniccommunities’ opportunity and willingness toemploy violence in pursuit of their goals:• Under what circumstances do arms produce orcontribute to the initiation of conflict? What arethe early warning indicators involving SALWthat could be used to better predict the outbreakof violence? 7• In what ways might arms fuel ongoing violence?• Do arms flows facilitate or hinder efforts toresolve ethnopolitical violence and conflict?• What is the effect of arms infusions on the likeli-14