The Economist December 1st 2007 - Online Public Access Catalog

election commission reformed. Maulana Fazal ur Rehman, the leader of the biggest religious party, wantsmuch the same. He hopes to form governments in the North-West Frontier province and Baluchistan.Only Mr Sharif favours a boycott. But he fears he would be sidelined if he goes it alone. So he is hedginghis bets. He has filed his nomination papers but is also hoping for an all-parties conference to agree on aboycott. If, as seems likely, Mr Musharraf meets some opposition demands, the elections will go ahead.But they may not provide stability to Mr Musharraf's position—let alone Pakistan's. The country is bitterlydivided across religious, regional, ethnic and class lines. Coalition governments in Islamabad and in theprovinces are inevitable. As in the past, Mr Musharraf's party will be inclined to make alliances with thereligious parties. But that will be looked at askance in America, which frets that such expedient politicalalliances help explain why Mr Musharraf's prosecution of the war against Islamist terrorists is ineffectual.However, if Mr Musharraf wants a deal with Miss Bhutto, he will have to share power with her, perhaps asprime minister, a prospect neither he nor his party relishes. If he spurns her, she will join hands with MrSharif and the mullahs to dethrone him. When Parliament meets in February, he will need a two-thirdsmajority to legitimise his “deviation” on November 3rd. Failing that, he would risk impeachment and haveto turn for help to his new army chief, General Kayani. Pakistan would revert to rule by the “troika” ofarmy chief, president and prime minister, an arrangement that has scarred politics since the restoration ofdemocracy in 1988. One elected government after another has been sacked by the president (thrice) orthe army chief (once, in 1999).Copyright © 2007 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.