Growing a Better Future - Oxfam International

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Figure 1: Real food price changes predicted over the next 20 years2030 baseline1802030 climate changeIncrease in world market export prices relative to 2010 (%)160140120100806040200Other processedfoodProcessed meatproductsProcessed rice Livestock Wheat Other crops Paddy rice MaizeSource: D. Willenbockel (2011) ‘Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030’, Oxfam and IDS2.1A failing foodsystemThe food system is buckling under intense pressure fromclimate change, ecological degradation, populationgrowth, rising energy prices, rising demand for meat anddairy products, and competition for land from biofuels,industry, and urbanization.The warning signs are clear. Surging and unstableinternational food prices, growing conflicts over water,the increased exposure of vulnerable populations todrought and floods are all symptoms of a crisis that maysoon become permanent: food prices are forecast toincrease by something in the range of 70 to 90 per centby 2030 before the effects of climate change, which willroughly the double price rises again (see Figure 1).12
Figure 2: The challenge of increasing equity within ecological limits2010 2050Population:7bnPopulation:9bnPlanetary boundaries Ecological impact of global resource use Resource share of the worst-off 20% of peopleWe face the unprecedented challenge of pursuinghuman development and ensuring food for all, in waysthat will both keep the planet within essential ecologicalboundaries and end extreme poverty and inequalities.Figure 2 illustrates the task at hand.Even as global population significantly expands,we must:• Reduce the impacts of consumption to withinsustainable limits, and• Redistribute consumption towards the poorest.Achieving the vision for 2050 requires a redistributionof power from the few to the many – from a handful ofcompanies and political elites to the billions of peoplewho actually produce and consume the world’s food.A share of consumption must shift towards those living inpoverty, so everyone has access to adequate, nourishingfood. A share of production must shift from pollutingindustrial farms to smaller, more sustainable farms,along with the subsidies that prop up the former andundermine the latter. The vice-like hold overgovernments of companies that profit fromenvironmental degradation – the peddlers and pushersof oil and coal – must be broken.There are three major challenges that must be met:• The sustainable production challenge: we mustproduce enough nourishing food for nine billion peopleby 2050 while remaining within planetary boundaries;• The equity challenge: we must empower womenand men living in poverty to grow or to buy enoughfood to eat;• The resilience challenge: we must manage volatility infood prices and reduce vulnerability to climate change.Running through each are fault lines along whichstruggles for power and resources will play out. Thischapter sets out each in detail.Growing a Better FutureChapter 2: The age of crisis:a skewed and failing system13
Page 1 and 2: Growing aBetter FutureFood justice
Page 3 and 4: Growing aBetter FutureFood justice
Page 5: List of figures12 Figure 1: Real fo
Page 8 and 9: Niger is the epicentre of hunger. H
Page 10 and 11: A new prosperityThis future is not
Page 13: 2The age ofcrisis:a skewed andfaili
Page 17 and 18: At present, higher incomes and incr
Page 19 and 20: Figure 4: The share of land devoted
Page 21 and 22: Box 1: A new breed of land investor
Page 23 and 24: Figure 6: The proportion of househo
Page 25 and 26: Figure 8a: Comparative growth rates
Page 28 and 29: Figure 11: The predictedimpact of c
Page 31 and 32: Meeting the sustainable productionc
Page 33 and 34: Figure 15b: The food system is ridd
Page 35 and 36: Box 4: Guatemala tries and fails: t
Page 37 and 38: Access to technologyCorporations ex
Page 39 and 40: Box 5: Profits from volatility and
Page 41 and 42: Government failuresFaced with this
Page 43: Box 7: A tale of two BRICSThey may
Page 46 and 47: 3.1Growing abetter futureWe know fr
Page 48: 3.2A newgovernancefor foodcrisesAs
Page 51 and 52: 2. Expand social protectionAt the h
Page 53 and 54: Figure 21b: Who are the food superp
Page 55 and 56: Large-scale agriculture also has a
Page 57 and 58: Figure 22: Investment in agricultur
Page 59 and 60: Figure 23b: Who is investing in agr
Page 61 and 62: An equitable transitionGlobal agree
Page 63 and 64: To help guide this transition, we n
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--Advocating for donors and financi
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Our global food system works only f
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Notes1 http://data.worldbank.org2 I
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79 Based on 2007 sales figures in g
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146 UNEP (2010) Africa Water Atlas:
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The global food system works only f
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