Growing a Better Future - Oxfam International

An equitable transitionGlobal agreements matter. They can establish anambitious shared global commitment to clear goals,and set the rules of the game. But the transition to aglobal economy that respects planetary limits will comeprimarily as a result of national and regional action.There is a great deal already happening to tackleemissions, develop technology, and transition to alow-carbon economy. But far, far more is needed.For wealthy countries, this requires a rapid shift towardsa new low-carbon energy and transport infrastructure,as well as new financial mechanisms that can bothincentivise this shift and finance low-carbondevelopment in poor countries. With the right policyframeworks this shift can be an engine for equitablegrowth. 155For emerging economies, the opportunity is one ofleap-frogging the resource intensive patterns ofproduction that have been so socially andenvironmentally damaging, and to secure globaleconomic advantage. There are huge opportunitiesfor those that get there first.For the poorest countries, the imperative will continueto be employment and wealth creation to benefit thepoorest without damaging the environment on whichtheir future prosperity depends. Fortunately there aremany strategies to pursue pro-poor sustainable growth.As we have already seen, the sustainable intensificationof agriculture offers big opportunities to increaseincomes and food security, build resilience and conservenatural resources. And reducing dependency on fossilfuels is a hugely attractive proposition, as some poorcountries spend up to six times as much on importing oilas they do on essential services such as health. 156Vertiginous oil price forecasts mean the poorest oilimporting countries are staring into an economic abyss:recent research estimates that they could lose 4 per centof GDP due to future price rises. 157 Hard economicrealities such as these, coupled with the fact that they arealso the countries on the front lines of climate change, hasprompted Ethiopia and the Maldives to completelydecarbonise their economies within the next 10–15 years.59