MSCP - EMC

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$/MWh180160140120100806040200USEPChart 5: Regulation Prices & USEPApr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07$/MWh8007006005004003002001000Regulation PriceUSEPRegulation PricesUS$/barrel60HSFO555045403530Chart 6: Regulation Prices & Fuel Oil PricesApr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07$/MWh8007006005004003002001000Regulation PriceFuel Oil PricesRegulation Pricese. Offer Prices45. The increasing regulation offer prices between the $100.01/MWh and$2000/MWh price range since October 2006 was mainly responsible for thehigher average prices during the review period.f. Market Reaction to Regulator Announcement on 9 February46. Around the time when the EMA informed market players on 9 February 2007 thatit was investigating the high regulation prices, the <strong>MSCP</strong> observed a significantdrop in the regulation prices as shown in Chart 7, Table 4 and Table 5.Page 12 of 14
47. The following price trends were observed:a. Area A (1 to 8 February 2007) – In February, prior to the EMA’sannouncement, almost 98 percent of the regulation price still cleared atbetween $100.01/MWh and $1000/MWh as the percentage of offersbetween $100.01/MWh and $2000/MWh remained high at 30.9 percent;b. Area B (9 to 16 February 2007) – This period coincided with the EMA’sannouncement of an investigation into the high regulation prices.Although occasional price spikes were still observed, most regulationprices cleared at less than $100/MWh. This was accompanied bychanges in offer prices as the percentage of offers between $100.1/MWhand $2000/MWh dropped to 23.7 percent;c. Area C (17 to 28 February 2007) – The return of a CCGT unit previouslyon planned maintenance helped reduce volatility as the averageregulation price dropped to $79.6/MWh with the percentage of pricescleared below $100/MWh strengthening to 80 percent;d. Area D (1 to 10 March 2007) – The total capacity of regulation offereddropped to an average of 174MW (see Table 5) as up to three CCGT swere on planned maintenance during this period. This led to higher pricevolatility. However, the average regulation price was lower as thepercentage of offers at less than $100/MWh continued to strengthen.$/MWh1400Chart 7: Regulation Prices between 1 Feb 07 to 10 Mar 071200Regulation Prices1000800600400ABD200C001-Feb 05-Feb 09-Feb 13-Feb 17-Feb 21-Feb 25-Feb 01-Mar 05-Mar 09-MarRegulation Spot PricesPage 13 of 14
Page 1 and 2: FINDINGS OF THE MARKET SURVEILLANCE
Page 4 and 5: Regulation Price3000250020001500100
Page 6 and 7: Chart 3a to 3d: Volatility of Regul
Page 8 and 9: Table 3: Regulation Offers in MW,Ap
Page 10 and 11: . This had led to more regulation p
Page 14: Table 4: Regulation Price Pattern b

MSCP - EMC

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