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EDITORIALThere has been lost an opportunity?!Even though, as it has been proved, Romania wasextremely vulnerable in front of the international crisis, itwas still having the great advantage that on its financialmarket there were not developing speculative operations ofthe kind of those that gave rise to the crisis in the USA andin other western countries. Therefore the crisis could beconsidered both a “catastrophe” and an “opportunity”. Inthis type of situations the direction towards which you“navigate” is very important. It is a known fact foreverybody that before the crisis there were many things outof control that had the role of creating the favorable premisesfor the crisis. So that, in the context of the exhilarationconcerning the emergent countries, we went off the trackthrough all kinds of extremely harmful weirdness: excessiveloans related with the deposits; an inconceivable growth ofthe consuming on the basis of the credit, much morepronounced than the production growth, and, implicitly,serious dislocation of the economy; the artificial appreciationof the national currency etc. All these have proven that “theliving was a lot over one’s own blanket”. Otherwise, wecould not explain the fact that 25% of those who got a loanare in the situation of not being able to pay their debts andwe are talking here about 25% out of four millions, and thatis one million people.What does this mean? “The non-payment” of the creditmeans for the bank a non-performing credit which leads tothe bank’s forced acquisition of a fixed mean whichrepresented the guarantee and the impossibility of attractingnew liquid assets for further loan of other clients. By thenon-existence of the loan, the investments do not exist, theeconomy cannot develop and the leu is depreciating. “Thenon-payment of the leasing” leads to creating car parks that,not so long ago, were queuing to enter the country.In this situation it was a known fact that a “coldshower” was needed. In this way, it is not wrong to say thatthis “cold shower” could have been represented by theinternational financial crisis which would have brought usdown on the earth. Cleaning the banking system by gettingrid of the banks that do not properly do their job, it means3
that it starts its activity from “healthier positions”. Cleaningthe economy by getting rid of the “frivolous” companies willlead to a harder economy.Anyway, it seems that the opportunity Romania had, inthe context of the international financial crisis that of beingagain down on the earth without any severe cost was lost.So that, because of the political situation and the foolishbehavior of the political parties on the horizon of theelections (it is also true the fact that we had “the badfortune” of having all kinds of elections during this period ofcrisis) it has been reached to “navigate” mostly against theflow and to see how other countries, maybe more seriouslyaffected than us, get clear of this period.Even though, according to a study ordered by ERSTEand realized by IMAS Vienna, it seems that “Romanians arethe most optimistic from the region concerning the impact ofthe crisis on business”.A sure thing is the fact that we will be down on the earthagain. It depends when!!!Assoc. Prof. Dorel BERCEANU, Ph.D4
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