444 By Susan Ariel Aaronson and David Deese With a reaction by ...

international recourse; the essay would have been strengthened by added discussionabout how EITI observance can be improved over time. It is worth recalling that theSullivan Principles themselves went through many iterations and improvements beforethey were broadly embraced by multinational corporations operating in South Africa overthe objections of the then apartheid government.Same Fate as the Dinosaurs?This is perhaps the most provocative notion advanced by the authors and one thatdeserves more thorough exploration. It is true that governments have allowed IOCs todevelop into the behemoths referred to in this essay through major acquisitions (e.g., ofArco and Amoco by BP, of Mobil by Exxon, of Texaco and Unocal by Chevron, ofPhillips by Conoco). Has this been to the benefit of competition and market efficiency?The presumption was that growing to an even larger scale would allow IOCs to bearmore risks in exploring and developing difficult fields in frontier areas—such as indeeper waters and more remote regions. Yet IOCs’ exploration success since the megamergershas been minimal, and their performance in developments such as the supergiantKashagan field in Kazakhstan (in which ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, ENI,ConocoPhillips are all partners) has been a major disappointment. Recent industryadvances, such as developing non-conventional gas in the U.S., have been led by smallindependent producers.So does the future lie with smaller but still large companies, such as Marathon orOccidental, which can bear significant risks but are more nimble in the marketplace? Oris it with non-vertically integrated companies (like Valero which is the largest U.S.refiner), which can better concentrate on competing in their segment of the market. It is474