Applied Bayesian Modelling - Free

260 ANALYSIS OF PANEL DATATable 6.12 Dental development data, alternative structures for data anderrors, model parameters and predictions of missing data points1. Unstructured errorsCorrelations for times(t 1, t)Mean St. devn. 2.5% 97.5%(2, 1) 0.61 0.12 0.33 0.81(3, 1) 0.71 0.10 0.47 0.87(3, 2) 0.83 0.06 0.68 0.92(4, 1) 0.49 0.15 0.16 0.74(4, 2) 0.71 0.10 0.47 0.87(4, 3) 0.84 0.07 0.67 0.93Interceptsb 11 22.69 0.53 21.65 23.75b 12 25.31 0.51 24.31 26.31Growth Ratesb 21 0.47 0.10 0.27 0.67b 22 0.78 0.10 0.60 0.97PredictionsPredicted y 11, 4 27.97 1.26 25.51 30.48Predicted y 12, 4 29.71 1.23 27.24 32.13MAD 1.24 0.65 0.23 2.702. Structured & unstructured errorsIntercepts Mean St. devn. 2.5% 97.5%b 11 22.67 0.58 21.44 23.76b 12 25.27 0.51 24.32 26.39Growth Ratesb 21 0.46 0.12 0.19 0.68b 22 0.77 0.11 0.57 0.97PredictionsPredicted y 11, 4 27.77 1.43 24.78 30.44Predicted y 12, 4 29.91 1.41 27.09 32.69MAD 1.29 0.69 0.29 2.97Autocorrelation, g 0.77 0.07 0.63 0.913. Autoregression in observations (gender specific)Intercepts Mean St. devn. 2.5% 97.5%b 1 2.96 1.65 0.93 7.18b 2 6.55 2.20 2.57 11.25b* 1 21.20 0.72 19.77 22.64b* 2 22.87 0.61 21.69 24.10(continues)