Cover storyNuclear Dangers: The Race between Cooperation and Catastropheby Sam NunnAt the dawn of the nuclear age – afterthe devastation of Hiroshima andNagasaki – General Omar Bradley said:“The world has achieved brilliance withoutwisdom...We know more about war thanwe know about peace, more about killingthan we know about living.”It might surprise General Bradley, if hewere alive today, to know that we have made it60 years without a nuclear attack. We were good,we were diligent, but we were also very lucky.Making it through 60 years without anuclear attack should not make us complacent.If we’re to continue to avoid a catastrophe,all nuclear powers will have to be highlycapable, careful, competent, rational – and ifthings go wrong, lucky – every single time.The world is heading in avery dangerous directionWe do have important efforts underway andsome important successes, but the risk of anuclear weapon being used today is growing,not receding. The storm clouds are gathering:▪ Terrorists are seeking nuclear weapons,and there can be little doubt that if theyacquire a weapon that they will use it.▪ There are nuclear weapons materials inmore than 40 countries, some secured bynothing more than a chain link fence.▪ A number of countries are consideringdeveloping the capacity to enrich uraniumto use as fuel for nuclear energy, butthis would also give them the capacityto move quickly to a nuclear weaponsprogram if they chose to do so.▪ Meanwhile, the United States andRussia continue to deploy thousands ofnuclear weapons on ballistic missilesthat can hit their targets in less than30 minutes, encouraging both sides tocontinue a prompt launch capabilitythat carries with it an increasinglyunacceptable risk of an accidental,mistaken or unauthorized launch.The bottom line: The world isheading in a very dangerous direction.New vision for our globalnuclear policyWith these growing dangers in mind, formerU.S. Secretaries of State George Shultz andHenry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary ofDefense Bill Perry and I published an op-edin January 2007, and a follow-up piece in2008, in The Wall Street Journal that calledfor a different direction for our globalnuclear policy with both vision and steps.The four of us, and the many othersecurity leaders who have joined us, arekeenly aware that the quest for a nuclearweapon-freeworld is fraught with practicaland political challenges. We have takenaim at the practical problems by linkingthe vision of a nuclear-weapon-free worldwith a series of steps for reducing nucleardangers and carving a path towards aworld free of the nuclear threat.Without the bold vision, the actionswill not be perceived as fair or urgent.Without the actions, the vision will notbe perceived as realistic or possible.We don’t believe our example is likelyto inspire Iran, North Korea or al Qaeda todrop their weapons ambitions, but we believeit would become more likely that many morenations will join us in a firm approach tostop the proliferation of nuclear weapons andmaterials and prevent catastrophic terrorism.I believe that we cannot defend ourselvesagainst the nuclear threats facing the worldtoday without taking these steps. We cannottake these steps without the cooperation ofother nations. We cannot get the cooperationof other nations without the vision andhope of a world that will some day endthese weapons as a threat to mankind.Strategic cooperationagainst nuclear weaponsThis will be a challenging process that mustbe accomplished in stages. The United Statesmust keep nuclear weapons as long as otherUS senior statesmen George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger andSam Nunn renewed their call for a nuclear-weapon-free world by supporting,among other measures, the adoption of a process for bringing the CTBTinto effect, “which would strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT) and aid international monitoring of nuclear activities. This calls for abipartisan review, first, to examine improvements over the past decade of theinternational monitoring system to identify and locate explosive undergroundnuclear tests in violation of the CTBT; and, second, to assess the technicalprogress made over the past decade in maintaining high confidence in thereliability, safety and effectiveness of the nation’s nuclear arsenal under atest ban. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization is putting in placenew monitoring stations to detect nuclear tests – an effort the U.S shouldurgently support even prior to ratification.”Opinion Editorial, Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2008pa g e C T B T O S p e c t r u m 9 | w w w. c t b t o . o r g
“But we will be safer, and the worldwill be safer, if we are workingtoward the goal of deemphasizingnuclear weapons and keepingthem out of dangerous hands – andultimately ridding our world of them.”If we are to be successful in dealingwith the hydra-headed threats of emergingnew nuclear weapon States, proliferationof enrichment, poorly secured nuclearmaterial and catastrophic terrorism – manynations must cooperate. We must recognize,however, that these tasks are virtuallyimpossible without the cooperation ofRussia. It is abundantly clear that Russiaitself faces these same threats and that itsown security is dependent on cooperationwith NATO and the United States.nations do. But we will be safer, and theworld will be safer, if we are working towardthe goal of deemphasizing nuclear weaponsand keeping them out of dangerous hands– and ultimately ridding our world of them.Strategic cooperation must become thecornerstone of our national defense againstnuclear weapons. Even a quick glance atthe steps we are proposing in our two WallStreet Journal essays reveals that noneof the steps can be accomplished by theUnited States and our close allies alone:▪ Changing nuclear force posturesin the United States and Russia togreatly increase warning time.▪ Reducing substantially nuclear forcesin all States that possess them.▪ Moving toward developing cooperativemultilateral ballistic-missile defenseand early warning systems.▪ Eliminating short-range“tactical” nuclear weapons.▪ Working to bring the ComprehensiveTest Ban Treaty into force – in theUnited States and in other key States.▪ Securing nuclear weapons and materialsaround the world to the highest standards.▪ Developing a multinational approach tocivil nuclear fuel production, phasingout the use of highly enriched uraniumin civil commerce, and halting theproduction of fissile material for weapons.▪ Enhancing verification andenforcement capabilities – andour political will to do both.▪ Building an international consensusbehind ways to deter and, whennecessary, respond stronglyand effectively to countries thatbreach their commitments.The most difficult and challengingstep is the need for redoubling our efforts toresolve regional confrontations and conflictsthat give rise to new nuclear powers.Establishing a durable securityrelationship with RussiaThere can be no coherent, effective securitystrategy to reduce nuclear dangers that doesnot take into account Russia – its strengths,weaknesses, aims and ambitions. So, itis remarkable – and dangerous – that theUnited States, Russia and the North AtlanticTreaty Organization (NATO), have notdeveloped an answer to one of the mostfundamental security questions we face:What is the long-term role for Russia inthe Euro-Atlantic security arc? Whethercaused by the absence of vision, a lack ofpolitical will, or nostalgia for the Cold War,the failure of both sides to forge a mutuallybeneficial and durable security relationshipmarks a collective failure of leadership inWashington, European capitals and Moscow.Global security dependson regional securityAs NATO prepares for its 60th anniversary,we must address a fundamental question.In the years ahead, does NATO wantRussia to be inside or outside theEuro-Atlantic security arc? The sameBiographical notecontinues on page 27Former SenatorSam Nunn is cochairmanand ChiefExecutive Officerof the NuclearThreat Initiative(NTI), a charitableorganizationworking to reducethe global threatsfrom nuclear,biological and chemical weapons. Heserved as a United States Senator fromGeorgia for 24 years from 1972 to 1996.During his tenure in the U.S. Senate,he was chairman of the Senate ArmedServices Committee and the PermanentSubcommittee on Investigations. ■C T B T O S p e c t r u m 9 | w w w. c t b t o . o r gPa g e