Dr Salmah Zakaria FASc., Chair of ASM Climate Change and Water ...

National Conference on Extreme Weather and Climate Change:Understanding Science and R & D Capacity Needs8-9 th October 2012, Auditorium Malaysian Meteorological DepartmentSalmah ZakariaFellow, ASMESWRS/EDD ESCAPUNITED NATIONSESCAPEconomic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

Table of Contents• Messages• Water Resources Challenges• The “Wicked Problem”

Messages• Climate Change Impact is happening• 93% of the impacts are water related• Current water related challenges will be exacerbated byclimate change impacts• ASM Task Force on CC Adaptation• Completed a status report on CC Impact• Some information are already available but more will beneeded, including new R&D findings• R&D required beyond climate change projection• Massive information to be managed coherently andeffectively• Must look for possible alternatives/pathways to handle thesemassive information

ESCAP develop AP Hot spots – base on 10Challenges from existing publications, 2009-10• Increasing Water Scarcity threat• High water utilization• Deteriorating water quality• Poor Water quality and low endowment• Flood Prone countries• Cyclone prone countries• Drought prone countries• Elevated ecosystem/climate change risks• Poor access to drinking water• Poor access to sanitation

Water Hot-spots(Source: UNESCAP, 2011)

AP Regional Challenges, 2011ESCAP preparation for 2APWS , 2013?• Population growth• Urbanization• Groundwater Depletion, Impact onAgriculture• Pollution of Water sources• Inadequate sanitation• Poor water quality – public healthconcerns• Water related disasters• Water-Food-Energy nexus• Water disputes

Chao Phraya RiversThailand = 513,120 km2Chao Phraya River Basin = 157,924 km 2Average Annual Rainfall = 1700mm•Whole of Chao Phrayaflood waters, passedthrough Bangkok•2011 Flood – lost anddamage = USD45 Billion

Thai Flood 2011 - Damages and LossesSub SectorTotal (in Mn THB)Damage Losses TotalInfrastructureWater Resources Management (0.63%) 8,715 - 8,715Transport 22,878 6,263 29,141Telecommunication 1,290 2,020 3,309Electricity 3,191 5,321 8,512Water Supply and Sanitation (0.25%) 3,538 2,104 5,642Cultural Heritage 2,562 3,061 5,622ProductiveAgriculture, Livestock and Fishery (3.6%) 37,992 30,328 68,320Manufacturing (67% of total) 513,881 417,025 930,906Tourism (6.8%) 5,134 89,673 94,807Finance & Banking (8.3%) - 115,276 115,276SocialHealth 1,684 2,128 3,812Education 13,051 1,798 14,849Housing 45,908 52,807 98,715Cross CuttingEnvironment 375 176 551TOTAL 660,199 727,980 1,388,179

The River Basin

Singapore River BasinsArea of Singapore main island - 694 km 2Marina Basin – 1/5 of Singapore about 139 km 2Av Rainfall 2000mm/yrPopulation – 5.1 million (2012)Source: www.nea.gov.sg/cms/pcd/Management

Developing …..…to....now …. in the Marina Bay..from ..thenThe KallangRiver Basin

PUTRAJAYA WETLAND PARK• Introducing nature into the urban fabric• Man made wetlands to act as a naturalfilter for lake water quality• Diverse habitats and plantsFrom: Perbadanan Putrajaya

PutrajayaMalaysia’s New Administrative Centre49 km sqPutrajaya Catchment, SgChuau Catchment, is atributary of Langat RiverSystemFrom: Perbadanan Putrajaya

From: Perbadanan Putrajaya

APWF Framework Document on Water andClimate Change AdaptationFor Leaders and Policy-makers in the Asia-Pacific Region,2012• Focus on 5 principles• Principle 1 - Usable knowledge• Principle 2 – No regret Investments• Principle 3 - Resilience• Principle 4 – Mitigation and Adaptation• Principle 5 – Financing• Now looking at meta-guidelines for each principle

Findings in Capacity Gaps by ASMStudy on the Status of Climate Change Impact on Water Related Issues- For ASM Task Force on Water and Climate Change, 2011• Challenges• Governance and Institutional Capacity• Climate Change Projections and R&D Capacity• Information Management Capacity• Stakeholders Awareness and Participation• Technical Management CapacityFrom: Lee Jin and Lavanya Iyer , 2011, Academy Science s of Malaysia

Challenges in Technical Management CapacityCase study – ASM Malaysia• Water Bodies Management Capacities• Rivers• Lakes• Aquifers• Coastal Areas• Water Use Management Capacities• Potable Water Supply• Agriculture & Irrigation Water Supply• Hydropower• Navigation• Fisheries• Water Ecosystems• Competing uses• Water Management Capacity• Floods• Water Pollution• Water Scarcity/Droughts• Human Health

ASM Case Study recommendations• Organize two levels of events• National Conference –• to create awareness among all the stakeholders on the key issues involved in water andclimate change - completed• 7 thematic workshops• Governance and Institutional Capacity• Climate Projections and R&D Capacity• Information Management Capacity - completed• Stakeholder Awareness and Participation - completed• Water Bodies Management Capacity ?• Water Use Management Capacity ?• Water Management Capacity ?• Objectives of each thematic workshops• To agree on the key issues to be addressed in each theme to adapt to the impacts of climatechange on water,• To clarify, prioritise and define the strategic action plans and develop their list of activitiesto address each of the agreed issues.• To estimate the indicative costs, where possible, of each of the strategic action plan basedon their list of activities.

Information overload?• Too much information?• Multiple and competing users?• Too complex?• Opaque? – politics, private, communities• etc

H.G. Wells, The Brain: Organizationof the Modern World , 1940• "An immense and ever-increasing wealth ofknowledge is scattered about the world today;• knowledge that would probably suffice to solve allthe mighty difficulties of our age, but it is dispersedand unorganised.• We need a sort of mental clearing house: a depotwhere knowledge and ideas are received, sorted,summarized, digested, clarified and compared."

Water in Climate changed – a Wicked problem? Wicked problem - is ill-defined and connected to other intractableproblems. Common characteristics are problems that are dynamic(changing), systemic (interconnected) and generative (emergentissues and new dimensions). Therefore, there can be no final, optimal one-off solution to it andsolutions are not truly good or bad but “best that can be done”on a continuing basis as new dimensions and inter-relationshipsemerge. Because of inherent differences in governance, cultural,motivation and attitudes among stakeholders surrounding theproblem, resolution will require a new approach21

Wicked problems (Cont’d)• The persistent challenges caused by current practices andapproaches thus constitute a complex problem with economicsocial-environmentalissues that had been termed “wickedproblems” (Rittel and Webber 1973 ).• Scientific solutions alone are unlikely to succeed in solvingsuch “wicked problems” because of the nature of the problemas much as the economic, societal and policy complexity inwhich it has to be resolved.• Scientific solutions can be developed for “tame” well definedproblems that can be solved in isolation, can be broken downinto parts which can be solved independently by differentgroups of people. Solutions to different parts of a largerproblem can then be integrated into an overall solution. Thesame does not hold true for “wicked” policy problems.22

Issues-Based Information System (IBIS)IssueMap(Evaluation)InformationRepository(ManagedInformation)• Identification of core issues, current efforts and risks• Generate ideas, options and solutions from synthesizedanalysis• Use the argumentation process to evaluate these ideasand solutions• Cluster and combine issues that are usually viewed inisolation• Accessible, usable and exploitable informationresources.• Information preprocessed into smaller unit ofinformation to match information architecture• Combine, collate, and compare existing studiesand analyze from multiple perspectivesOpen Information MarketInternet, DatabasesReports, Papers,Books(Unmanaged Information)3-Tier Information Management Structure• Covers information available in differentmedia and format• Includes policies, strategies, initiatives andstudies on energy securityFrom: KK Aw

The Multicentric Information Framework and Mct-IBIS• LinkedIn and Facebook are dedicated relationshipmanagement system for professional and socialrelationships.• The “Multicentric Information Framework” is ageneric information relationship management systemthat can be used to developed dedicated relationshipbased applications, in this case – Mct-IBIS• Mct-IBIS – an implementation of the IBIS methodologyusing the Multicentric Information Framework developedby Multicentric Technology.• Website - http://www.multicentric.com/wapi/mctweb.dll/getobject?objid=1&mid=MCTWebsite

If all you have is a hammer, then everything looks like a nail!Stakeholders have different perspectives of thebest solution to the problem & will continue toadhere strongly to them,

SL3 – Climate Change Projections andR&D capacity• All areas of R & D, with focus on “Technical ManagementCapacity”• What are the priorities?• Which line agencies should lead in each specific areas?• How can we create buy-ins from all stakeholders, so that wecan get support from policy/decision makers to enableallocations for human and financial resources?• What are the funds required?