Using BUFKIT to forecast precip type/heavy snow
Using BUFKIT to forecast precip type/heavy snow
Using BUFKIT to forecast precip type/heavy snow
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<strong>Using</strong> Bufkit <strong>to</strong> VisualizePrecipitation Amount and TypeWDTB Winter Weather WorkshopJuly 23, 2003Ed Mahoney, WDTBJeff Waldstreicher, ER/SSDTom Niziol, WSFO BUF
Eta Sfc MSL Pressure Init. 11/20/00z
Temperature Time-Height
Dendritic GrowthTemperature12 o C18 o C
Identify Dendritic Growth Zone
Scan Zone for Moisture
Dendritic GrowthMoisture
Identify Favored Growth Zone
Display Model Omega
Overlay All Variables3”- 4”/hr
The Need For Moderate Lift• “Moderate Lift” defined as function of theModel Resolution– 20 km eta stronger than -10 ub s -1– 12 km eta stronger than -15 ub s -1• Configuration should be present in 2 of 3successive model runs (Run <strong>to</strong> Runconsistency)
Moderate Lift May Fall OutsideDendritic Growth Zone-14ub -1
Waldstreicher Study• 1998-2001• Northeast US• 20 km eta
Assessing ElevatedPrecipitation Type• Based Upon the Bourgouin Energy AreaTechnique (2000)
Bourgouin Technique Review• Divide theTemperatureProfile in<strong>to</strong> 1<strong>to</strong> 4 layers• Compute the +and - energy(J/kg) in eachlayer
Two-layer – Rain vs Snow
Three Layer – ZR vs IP
Damage Influenced by Elevation
January 1998 Ice S<strong>to</strong>rms
The Freezing Rain Profile
Snow vs Rain Profile
A Mini Lab• January 1998– New England and Canada– Tug Hill, New York• January 2002– Southeast US– NE Alabama
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