Discrete & Continuous Random Variables - Statistics

Application of the Geometric DistributionBy 2000, airlines had reported an annoying number of incidents where the shaft ofa 777 engine component would break during engine check tests before take-off.Before engaging in a shaft diameter redesign it was necessary to get some ideaof how likely the shaft would break with the current design.Based on the supposition that this event occurred about once in ten take-offsit was decided to simulate such checks until a shaft break occurred.50 such simulated checks after repeated engine shutdowns produced no failure.The probability of this to happen when p = 1 10 isP(Y ≥ 50) = (1 − p) 50 = 1 − P(Y ≤ 49) = 1 − pgeom(49,.1)= 0.005154What next? Back to the drawing board.5