Housing and Property Markets in Germany 2011 - Bundesinstitut fÃ¼r ...

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10 Housing and Property Markets in Germany 2011 | Specific current and future housing market trendsFigure 4Residential units completed300 000Current construction activity since 1992 and forecast demand for new construction up to 2025250 000200 000150 000100 00050 00001992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024YearConstruction activityNote: residential units completed in newly constructedDetached and semi-detached houses, former West-German statesForecast residential buildings, excluding rooming houses,statisticsincluding extensive late registrations in the city ofMunich in 2004 and 2006Multiple dwellings, former West-German statesData source: BBSR Housing Market Monitoring System;German Federal Statistical Office: Special series 5,Detached and semi-detached houses, former East-German statesSeries 1 Construction activity; BBSR Housing MarketMultiple dwellings, former East-German statesForecast 2025 (lower variant)BBSR-Analysen KOMPAKT 02/2012Map 5Vacancies in multiple dwellings 2009 – A problem in the East and WestDKActive-market vacancy rate inmultiple dwellings 2009 in %Kielto less than 2.5BremenHamburg SchwerinPL2.5 to less than 5.05.0 to less than 7.57.5 to less than 10.0HannoverNL PotsdamBerlin10.0 and moreNumbers statistically uncertainMagdeburgDüsseldorfErfurtDresdenData sources: BBSR Housing Market Monitoring System,empirica vacancy indexGeometric basis: BKG, administrative districts, 31.12.2009BEWiesbaden CZLUMainzSaarbrückenFR Stuttgart116 185 74 25 12 25Frequency100 kmMünchenATNote:For the purposes of the active-market vacancy rate, unrentedrental units are defined as being vacant. The empirica vacancyindex is constituted from day-to-day information on the rentalsituation of the residential stock under review. The index usesinformation for 11% of the entire stock of multi-storey buildings inCH Germany. As the index does not include economically abandonedand substandard units (coal heating), these vacancy© BBSR Bonn 2011 rates are below those of other surveys (e.g., micro census).
Housing and Property Markets in Germany 2011 | Specific current and future housing market trends 11BBSR-Analysen KOMPAKT 02/2012The extent to whichhousing units remainvacant is defined, inparticular, by marketconstellationsVacant property can be foundprimarily in East Germany, but also inrural areas in the West (see Map 5).The vacancies are the result ofdiverse market processes. Growingregions have a high level of demandfor residential units, and propertyowners feel more secure aboutrefinancing investments. In regionswith lower demand, people lookingfor homes have a wider choice,while suppliers of housing unitstend to be grappling with vacancies.The relationship between rent,furnishings and location dictate howeasily a property can be rented. Inthe future, high vacancy rates canbe expected in eastern Germany, inold-industrialised regions of WestGermany as well as parts of northernand eastern Bavaria along withLower Saxony.The housing markets inEurope are displayingvery different trendsThe residential property markets inEurope are extremely diverse. Thefinancial market crisis in 2008/2009hit European countries in verydifferent initial situations, whichmeant the intensity of the impactdiffered greatly. Some countries witha high volume of new constructionand the formation of property pricebubbles up to 2008 have undergonesubstantial price corrections, whichin turn caused construction demandto be dampened (see Figure 5). Thisis particularly true of Ireland, Cyprus,Spain, Greece and most of the Centraland East-European countries. SomeFigure 5Completed residentialunits per 1,000 inhabitants6.4markets, such as Norway, Swedenand Finland, experienced strong priceincreases of more than 5 % on theirresidential property markets after asharp decline in 2009. By contrast,Austria, Germany, and Switzerlandeffectively did not experience anycrisis-related price declines.The residential property ownershiprates vary greatly within theindividual countries in Europe; from90 % among the leaders Spain,Hungary and Slovakia to 36 % inSwitzerland. Germany with anownership rate of 43 % is actually atthe lower end for Europe as a whole.Multiple constellations for completed housing construction in Europe –Level 2011 and dynamics 2008 to 2012FranceFinlandSwitzerland3.2SpainPortugalItalyBelgiumAustriaNetherlandsCzech RepublicNorwaySweden SlovakiaPolandIrelandDenmarkUKHungaryGermany0.0-100LevelCompleted residential units2011 in 1,000s1005025-50 -10 0 10Change between 2012 and 2008 in %DynamicsDramatic declineSubstantial decline50Slight decline and/orslight recoveryModerate increaseData source: Euroconstruct 2011
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