Haiti – Dominican Republic - Disasters and Conflicts - UNEP

a marked out-migration of the Dominicanpopulation from rural areas and a major reductionin artisanal farming of marginal land byDominican Republic citizens. This out-migrationhas opened up vacant agriculture land on theDominican Republic side of the border zonethat attracts in-migration of Haitian farmers.Multiple factors have combined to cause significantinfiltration/worker migration of Haitiancitizens into the Dominican Republic side ofthe border zone. These include a large andgrowing mobile Haitian unskilled labor force,relatively lax border controls, reduced anddamaged natural resources on the Haitianside, significant remaining natural resourceson the Dominican side, and out-migration ofDominican citizens from the Dominican sideof the border.9.4 ShocksNational or regional growth or decline is not alwaysa smooth process. It is also tightly linked to theresilience of the state, its population and relatedlivelihoods to be able to respond to vulnerabilities,such as absorb economic, social and politicaldisturbances, as well as anticipate and recoverfrom natural hazards, climate variability and environmentaldegradation. Decline in particular canbe abrupt, as it was in Haiti after the 2008 floods,the 2010 earthquake and during the choleraepidemic. Several of the border zone issues havethe potential to be affected negatively by suchshocks and acute stresses.Collectively incidents including both disasters, conflicts,epidemics and economic and social unrestare labeled shocks. Given that this assessment hasestablished that there is a large scale, slow declinein progress and the environment is and continuesto be degraded, then the potential for tippingpoints within that context needs to be established.Tipping points are incidents and events that resultin a material worsening of pre-existing problemsand trends, resulting passing critical thresholdsbeyond which the system is governed by newprocesses and structures. For example, a forest firein an already partly deforested mountainous areais a shock, and will result in a rapid drop in forestcover and extensive bare soil, resulting in turn in atipping point for accelerated and irreversible soilerosion in specific areas.Table 4 lists and describes the key identifiedpotential shocks, that may potentially affect theHaiti-Dominican Republic border zoneIn respect to the first incident listed in Table 4“Hurricane and river flooding”, climate change islikely to further worsen the situation in the long run.A model predicting the effect of anthropogenicwarming on the frequency of Atlantic hurricanesfound that the incidence of Category 4 and 5Table 4. Key potential shocks identifiedShock Likelihood – frequency Principal impacts ScaleHurricane and river flooding High – every 5 years or less Economic and environmentaldestructionEarthquake Low – every 50-200 years Economic destruction + broadimpactsDepartmental-binationalDepartmental-binationalCholera outbreakHigh – cholera is now endemicin Haiti.Social and economic & political inc.border closuresDepartmental-binationalHaiti internal political instability– riotsHigh – Annual frequency orhigher since 1990Social, economic & political inc.border closuresNationalViolent conflict between Haitianand Dominican Republic citizensHigh – small scale incidentsoccur annually at leastSocial with potential for politicalescalationBinational – localizedLarge scale forest fires Moderate – every 2-20 years Social, economic and environmental LocalDrought High – every 5 years or less Social, economic and environmental Binational102 Haiti – Dominican Republic: Environmental challenges in the border zone