JTWC Report PDF - Weather Underground

FRONTCOVER: Typhoon Odtiha (above tight) a v.iwed.tImougk the mgo bay o~ tfte MSA Space Mu.ttLe. Thec.touiiimm a2 the Lowm tigti A tihotiedw.i.tltTyphoon Pat. OdUAa and Pa-t, utong with Skip, Rubyand Tcm, became pazt 06 the Ah@e moA-tactivez%opicu.t cytione day dining the the 1985 notihWe4t-Wn Pati@ AeaAon, When & fjiveAy&@n4 ex.dted dthe AUme tie. +ttpictuhetime, 282220Z AugtiX 1985,the Shua3t&? wti ptih.ing eixtumd CWOAA the po.d.t.ion24. lhf ZaaZude 143.4E Longitude (ffASAA1.ide#35-078phovicki by CVRD.A. Mautcm, (2ICNAVPOLAROCEANCE1.1 Vattudmevvt, Johz40n Space Cen.ttm,Tem ) .

U,S, NAVAL0CEAN0GRAPH%COMMANDCENTERJOINTTYPHOONWARNINGCENTERCOMNAVMARIANASBOX 17FPO SAN FRANCISCO96630CHARLESG. STEINBRUCKCaptain, United States NavyCOMMANDING*DAV[D w, MCLAWtiORNLieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force,VERNON G. PATTERSONLieutenant Colonel, United States Air ForceDIRECTOR,JOINTTYPHOONWARNINGCENTERCOMMANDER,DETACHMENT1, 1ST WEATHERWING*TRANSFERRED DURING 1985

STAFF*LCDR Scott A. Sandgather USN*MAJ Mark E. Older III, USAFLCDR George M. Dunnavan, USN*LCDR Brett T. Shermanr USNCAPT Boyce R. Columbus, USAFCAPT Anita F. Dye, USAFLT John L. Shoemake, USNCAPT Michael T. Gilford, USAFLT Brian J. Williams, USNLT Mark J. Gunzelman, USNLT Harry S. Gatanis, USNTSGT Marguritta H. Smith, USAFAG2*AG2AG2SGT*SGTAG3*SGT*AG3A(33*SRASRASRASRAKevin L. Cobb, USNTeddy R. George, USNKristopher W. Buttermore, USNDonna M. Curtis, USAFMargaret E. Gray, USAFShirley A. Murdock, USNThomas L, Parra, USAFRandall J. McKillip, USNErika L. Sauer, USNJames Kelly III, USAFRgnald W. Jones, USAFDonald L. Novak, Jr, USAFAngelia Gavin, USAFAGAN J&nes P. Gallagher, Jr, USNAGAN Steven M. Deola, USNEDXTORS: LT William P. Wirfel, USNMS Frank H. Wells, CIVCONTRIBUTE: Detachment l,lww - USAF(SatelZite Operations)CAPT Frederick J. Svetz, USAFCAPT Donna 1?. McNamara, USAFTSGT Williqn H, Taylor, USAFSSGT Fabrice F. Clark, USAF*SSGT Char-es B. Siniff, Jr, USAF*SSGT Patti A. Ashbyr USAFSSGT Paul F. Schirle, USAFSSGT Jerome P. Koch, Jr, USAF*Transferred during 1985II

FOREWORD‘iheAnnualTrcpicalCyclme Report is preparedby the staff of the Joint TyphoonWarningCenter(J’lW2),a ccnbinedUSAMXN organizaticmcperatingl.lrder the Camnandof the Cmmsnding Officer,U.S.NavalOceanographyCcnmandCenter/JointTyphoonWarningCenter,Guam. J’IW was establishedinApril 1959 when USCIKPAC directedUSCIK!PACETXtoprovidea singletropicalcyclonewarningcenterfortie wea&rn North Pacificregicm The cperaticnaof J’IVZare guidedby CIlF2PACIKiT3140.1 (series).‘l’he missicmof the Joint‘&@cmis nulti-facetadad inclties:WarningCenter1. Continuousmonitoringof all tiopicalwather activityin the Ncrthernand Southernlimispheres,fran180 degreeslongitude=stward tothe east coastof Africa,and the prcmpt issuanceof apprqxiate advisoriesand alertswhen tropicalcyclonedwelcgrnantia anticipaixxl.2. Isau.in9WWO.@S ~ all S.@ificanttrcpicalcyclcaesin the abovearea of responsibility.3. Oaterndnaticmof reconnaissancerequirementsfor trcpicalcyclonesurveillamxand ssaignmantof appropriatepriorities.4. Post-stormanalysisof all significanttrcpicalcyclcnesoccurringwithin the wssternNofiPacificand North IndianOceans,whid incltdeaanin-depthanalysisof tropicalcyclcnesof rmte andall typhcma. Alm fcx the firsttime a summry ofthe South Pacificand Scuth IIMianOcean significanttrcpicalcyclonesfcr the period 1 July 1984 thmxgh30 June 1985 are included.5. CocperatiaIwiti tie Naval EnvironmentalPredictionResearchFacility,Monterey,California,m the opemtional evaluationof trqicalcyclcnemcdelaand forecastaids, ~ the dwelcgmentofnew techniquesto suppo* operationalforecastscenarios.Satelliteimageryused thrcmghmt this repmtrepresentadab cbtain65by the trcpicalcyclonesatellitesurveillancenetmrk. The paramnel ofDetacl’ment1, lWW, collocatedwith J’lW at Nimitz=11, Guam, coordinatethe satellitexquisiticnaand trcpicalcyclonesurveillant with the follcwing unita:Oat 4, 20WS,HickamAFS, HawaiiDet 5, 20PE3,Clark ASr mDet 8, 20WS, I&Sam AB, JapanDet 15, 30WS, Oaan A8, XoreaAir Force GlcXalWeatherCentral,OffuttAEB, NebraskaIn ddition, the NavalOceanqraphy CcmnardDetzchm?nt,Diego Garcia,and lXSP quipped U.S. Navy aircraftcarriersheve beem instrumentalin providiqvital satellitepoeiticnfixes of trcpicalcyclonesin the IndianOcean.ShculdJ’IW2beccmeincapacitated,the AlternateJoint TyphoonWarningCenter (A31W) locatedat theU.S. NavalWesternOceamgraphy Center,PearlHarbor,Hawaii,assume warningreapcmaibilities.Assistancein de~~ S@=lfite reconnaissancerequirements,and in cbtainingthe resultantdata, is providedbyDet 4, 20FZ3Hick AFS, Hawsii.Aspacial thanksiaeMMxIedto themmardwanen &: 27th InformationSystem Squadron,Opera-~tion C, for theirccminuing supportbyprwiding high qualityreal-timesatellite~e~the PacificFleetAudio-VisualCenter,Guam, fortheirassistancein the reprcductim & Sa*llitead graphicsdata fcu this repcxt;to the NavyPublicationsand PrintingServiceSranchOffice,Guam, for theireffortato meet deadlinea;ard toAG3 S. A. Murdockfor typingthe msny draftaandassistancewith the final manuscriptof this report.Ttmnkaia alao exted.sdti Lt. G. H. CarpenterandLt. R. A. Whnmer for submittingTropicalQclonewrit+upa cm ~ mess and ~ccn Xit raspactively.A specialthanksto TSGT W. H. Taylorforgridd.hqthe numeroussatelliteimagesfor thisrzrt and to M=.. I-h M. Fcax= of the xeroxCorporation,Guam for her assistancewith tiepreparatim of the script fontportiom cf thisdccumant.Note:Appel’miix Iv containsinformational hcw to obtainpast issuesof the AnnualTropical CycloneRmo*(titledAnnualT@mon Reuort prier to 1980).Ill

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CHAFTERIVCHAmERvSUMM4RYOF S0K71’H PACIFICAND SOUIH INDIANWEAN TFOPICALCYCLCNES1. General---------- ------------- -1382. ScuthPacificard Scuth IndianOcean l’rcpicalC!@ones -139Sut?M?@YOF FORIZ.AS’l’ VERIFICATION1. l+nnualForecastVerification- - - - - - - - - - - - - -1482. Cmpariscm of ObjsctiveTechniques- - - - - - - - - --155CHAPIERVI APPLIEDTRDPICYZCYCIJXERESEARX S~ FR(l’1NAmwpmxzmAC ------- --------------161ANNEXATROPICALCYCmNE TRACKAND FIX DATA1. westernt?orthPacificDah -- -------------1632. North IndianCcean Da@ --------------- -2303. South Pacificand South IndianWean Data - - -- - --235APP.FNDICZS I.Definitions -------------- --------270II.III.Iv.DISTRIE3UJXON - - -Names afTropical Cyclones- --------------271References--------- --------------272Past AnnualTrcpicalCyclcneReports- - - - - - - -- -273---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -274v

CONTRACTIONSACCRYAccuracyELElongatedACFTAircraftELEVElevationADPAutomatedDataProcessingEXPExposedAFGWCAir ForceGlobal WeatherCentralFIForecast Intensity (Dvorak)AIREPANTAircraft Weather Report(s)(Commercial and Military)AntennaFLTFNOCFlightFleet Numerical OceanographyCenterAORAreaof ResponsibilityFTFeetAPRNTApparentGMTGreenwich Mean TimeAPTARwoATTAVGAWNAutomatic Picture TransmissionAircraft ReconnaissanceWeather OfficerAttenuatedAverageAutomated Weather NetworkGOESHATRACKHGTHPACGeostationaryEnvironmentalOperationalSatelliteHurricane and Typhoon Tracking(Steering) ProgramHeightMean of XTRP and CLIM Techniques(Half Persistence and Climatology)BPACBlended Persistence and ClimatologyHR(s)Hour (s)BRGBearingHvYHeavyCDOCICentral Dense OvercastCirriform Cloud or Cirrus alsoCurrent Intensity (Dvorak)ICAOINITInternational Civil AviationOrganizationInitialCINCPACCommander-in-Chief PacificAF- Air Force, FLT - Fleet (Navy)INJAHWorth Indian Ocean Componentof TYANCLDCloudINSTInstructionCLIMClimatologyIRInfraredCLSDClosedKMKilometer(s)CMCentimeterKTKnot(s)CNTRCenterLLCCLow-Level Circulation CenterCPAClosest Point to ApproachLVLLevelCscCloud System CenterMMeter(s)CYCLOPSDEGDIAMDIRDMSPTropical Cyclone Steering Program(HATTRACK and MOHATT)DegreeDiameterDirectionDefenseProgramMeteorological SatelliteM/sMAxMEMETMT.NMOHATTMeter(s) per SecondMaximumMillibar(s)MeteorologicalMinimumModifiedHATTRACKDSTDistanceMOVGMovingVI

MSLPMinimum Sea-Level PressureSTNRYStationaryMSNHiss ionSSTSea SurfaceTemperatureNAVNavigationalSTSubtropicalNEDNNavalEnvironmentalData NetworkSTRSubtropicalRidgeNEDSNavalEnvironmentalDisplayStationSTYSuperTyphoonNEPIWNaval EnvironmentalResearch FacilityPredictionTAPTTyphoon AccelerationPrediction TechniqueNESDXSNETNational Environment-al Satellite,Data, and Information ServiceNear Equatorial TroughTCTCARCTropicalCycloneTropical Cyclone AircraftReconnaissance CoordinatorNMNauticalMile(s)TCFATropical Cyclone Formation AlertN/oNot ObservedTCMTropical Cyclone ModelNOAANOCCNOGAPSNTCMNational Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministrationNaval Oceanography Command CenterNavy Operational Global AtmosphericPrediction SystemNested Tropical Cyclone ModelTDTDOTIROSTPACTropicalTyphoonDepressionDuty OfficerTelevision Infrared ObservationalSatelliteExtrapolationBlendand ClimatologyNwocNaval Western Oceanography CenterTSTropicalStormNRNumberTYTyphoonNRLNaval Research LaboratoryTYANTyphoon Analog ProgramOBSOTCMPACOMPCNPSBLPTLYQUADRECONRNGRTSATSFCSLPSRPObservationsOne WayCyclonePacificPositionPossiblePartlyQuadrantRadar(Interactive) TropicalModelCommandCode NomberObservationsReconnaissanceRangeRightSatelliteSurfaceSea-LevelPressureSelective Reconnaissance ProgramTYFNTUTTULACULccVELVISVMNTWESTPACWMoWNDWRNG(S)WRsXTRPzWestern North Pacific Component(Revised) of TYANTropicalTroughUpper-LevelUpper-TroposphericAntiCycloneUpper-Level Circulation CenterVelocityVisualVector Movement (ddff)Western(North) PacificWorld Meteorology OrganizationWindWarning(s)Weather Reconnaissance SquadronExtrapolationZulu Time(Greenwich MeanTime)Vll

CHAPTER 1 - OPERATIONALPROCEDURES1. GENERALThe Joint TyphccmWarningCenter (JTWC)providesa varietyof routineservicesto the organizationswithinits area of responsibility,including:a. SignificantTrcpicalWeatherAdvisories:issueddaily,theseprcxluctsdescribeall tropicaldisturbancesand asseestheirpotentialfor furtherdevelcpnentduring the aiviaoryperid;b. TrcpicalCycloneFormationAlerts:issusdwhen synoptic,satelliteand/oraircraftreconnaissancedataindicatedevelcprentof a significanttropicalcyclcnein a specifiedarea is likely;c. Tropical@clone Warnings:issuedperiodicallytbroughcuteachday for significanttropicalcyclones,giving forecastiof positicnand intensi~of the system;add. PrognosticReasoningMessages:issuedtiicedaily for tropicalstormsand typhconsin the westernNorth Pacific;thesemssages discussthe rationalebehirdthe nmst recentJ’IW warnings.The recipientsof the services& JIWC essentiallydetermimthe mntent of ~‘s productiaccordingto theirever changingrequirements.Therefore,the spectrumof routineservicesiasubjectto changefran year to year. Such changesare usually the resultof deliberationsheld at theAnnualTrcpicalCyclcneC&ference.- mximm surfaceand flightlevelwind- minimumsea-levelpressure- horizontalsurfaceand flight levelwirxldistribution- eyd=nter temperatureand dewpointIn addition,wind and pressure-heightdala atthe 500 and/or400 W levels,providd by the aircraftwhileenrouteto, or frcm fix missicms,orduringdedicatedsyn~ti~scale flighti,provideavaluablesupplementto the all tco sparsedata fieldsof J’IWC’sarea of responsibility.A rore &taileddiscussionof aircraftweatherreconnaissanceis presentd in ChapterII.d. SATELLITElWXNNAIssAhCE:Wteorological satellite&3ta obtainedfran theDefenseMeteorologicalSatellitePrcgram (DMSP)atiNatiord Cceanicad AtmosphericAdministratia(NQAA)spacecraftpl.aysda major role in the earlydetecticnand trackingof tropicalcyclcnesin 1985.A discussionof the role of theseprogramsis pr~sentedin ChapterII.e. RADAR RKCNNAISSANCE:During 1985,as in previcusyears, landbasedradar coveragewas utilizedextensivelyhen available.Once a tropicalcyclcnemoved within therange of landbased radar sitea,their reportawere essentialfor determinationof small scalemovement. Use of radar reportsduring 1985 isdiscussedin ChapterII.3. COMMUNICATIONS2. DATA SOURCESa. COMWFER PFODUCI’S:A standardarray of syncptic-scalecanputeranalysesand prognosticchartsare availablefran theFleet Numerical&?eancgraphyCenter (~)at P!onterey,California. These prcductsare providedto J’IWCvia & NavalEnvironmentalData Netwcrk(Nfl)N) .b. ~ICNAL DA’JR:This dab set is canprisedof land-baseiadshipboardsurfaceand ~per-air obsem?ationstikenat, or near, synoptictimes,clcud-mcticnwindsderivedtwicedaily frcm satellitedata, and emoutemeteorologicalcbservatiom frcancommercialandmilitaryaircraft (AIREPS)within six hours ofsynoptictimes.Conventionaldata chartsare pr~eddaily at 00002ati 12002using hand- andcanputer-plottedata for tk surfadgradient and200mb (upper-tropospheric) levels. In tdditicmtotheseanalyses,chartsat the 850, 700, and 500 *levelsare ccnputer-plottedfrcm rawinaOnd&pibalcbservaticmsat the 12-hctmsyncptictimes.C. AIICRAETREmNtaIssANcE:Mrcraf t weatherreconnaissancedata are invaluablefor locatingthe positionof the centerof developingsystemsafiessentialfor the accuratideterminationof:a. .l’lWcurrentlyhas access to tireeprimarycamnunicationscircuits.(1) The AutcmatedDigitalNetsmrk (AUIt3DIN) isUSfd for dissemineti(nOf warnings,alerts@ otherrelatedbulletinsto Departmentof Defenseinstallations.These messagesare relayedfm furthertransmissionoverU.S. Navy Fleet Broadcasts,and U.S.Ccast Guard CW (continuouswsve Morse Cede) and voicebroadcasts.“Inboundmessage trafficfor J’IW isreceivedvia AUIWIN addressedto NA~ ~,W GQ, or D171’1 lww NIMITZHILL GQ.(2)The Air Force AutcmatedWeatherNetxmk(AWN)providesweatherdata to J’lW througha dedicatedcircuitfran the AutanatedDigitalWatherSwitch (ADWS)at HickamAFB, Hawaii. The AD?/sselectsati routes the largevolumermteorologicalreportsnecessaryto satisfyJIWC requirementsforthe rightdata at the right time. Weatherbulletinapreparadby J’1’Ware insertedinto the AWN circuitvia the Naval EnvironmsmtalDisplayStitia (=)throughthe NimitzHill Naval T@leccmnunicatimsCenter (N’TCC)of the Naval CcnmnmicationsAr03 MasterSbtion WesternPacific.(3)The Naval Envirorsnen tal llataNe&ork (NE2)N)is the Ccmruni=tions link with the Ccmpute= at~. J’IWCis able b receiveenvironmentaldatafrcfn~and provi~ dabdirectlyto the ccaputersW executen~ricaltecbniqyes.b. ~ is the backbon of the ~ cammmicationssystem. It is the terminalthat providesadirect interfacewith the FKN and AWN circuits,andis capableof preparingmssages fm indirectAUIUDINtransmission.1

4. ANALYSESA ccmpositesurfadgradient level (3000ft(915m)) manual analysisof tbe J’lW area of responsibilityisaccomplishedcm the 00002and 12002conventionaldata. Analysisof the witi fieldusing streamlinesis stressedfor tropicaland subtropicalregicns.Analysisof the pressurefieldcutaidethe tropicsis accomplishedroutinelyty theNaval &eancgraphy CcmmandCenter.(MXC) Dperatiomswatch team and is used by J’IwCin conjunctionwiththeir analysisof the tropicalwind fields.A ccnpositeupper-~apheric manual streamlineanalysisis acccmpliahe daily utilizingrawinsomiedatafrun 300 mb through100 *, witis cbtainedfran satellite+erivedcloudmotim analysis,andAIREPS (takenplus or minus six hours & chartvalidtime) at or above 29,000feet (8,839m). Wind ardheightdata are used to generatea mpreaentativeanalysisof tropicalcycloneoutflowpatterns,mid-latitudesteeringcurrents,and featuresthatmayinfluenm trcpicalcycloneintensity. All chartsarehand-plottedin the trcpicsto provideall availabledata aa som as pcssibletn the ‘IcC).These chartsare augmentedby Canputer-plotkdchartsfor thefinalanalysis.Ccm@uter-plottedchartsfor the 850, 700, and500 * levelsare availablefor streamli= ar&orheight-changeanalysisfran the 00002 arxl12002datibase. Additionalsectionalchar* at intermedia~syncptictires and auxilarychartssuch as staticntimeplotdiagramsand pressure-changechartsarealso analyzedduringpericiisof significanttropicalcyclom activity.5. FORECAST AIDSThe followingcbjectivetechniqueswme enplcyedin tropicalcycloneforecastingduring1985 (adescriptionofthese &chniques is presentedin Chapterv):a. MNEMENT(1) 12-HCUR~ICN(2) CLIMA!R3U(3) TPAC (Extra@ation and ClimatologyBlend)(4) TYAN78 (halcg)(5) OXMX (ModelOutputStatistics)(6) UKM (xc Mcdel)(7) NIU4 (lfestedGrid DYTIamiCModel)(8) TAPI’ (~irical)b. IWI!ENSITY(1) ‘llG#IA E@@rical)(2) DVORAW (Empirical)(3) CLINA’TOLCGY(4) WI!W)RADIUS (Analytical)6. FORECAST PROCEDURESa. INITIALPOSITICX?INGThe warningpositionia tie best eatinsteof Mcenterof the suxface circul.atiaat synoptictime.It is estimatedfran an analysisof all fix informationraceivd up to one and one-halfhours afterayncptictime. This analysisia based cm a semicbjectiveweightingoffix informationbased cn thehistoricalaccuracyof tie fix platformand themAeorology featuresused for the fix. The interpnlabxlwarningpaaiticmreducestheweightingof anysinglefix and resultsin a more consistentmovementand a warnirqpositicmthat is more representativeofthe Iaxger-scalecirculation. If the fix dab arermt availabledue b nsconmisaanceplatformmalfunctionor canmunicaticnprcblems,syncpticdataor extra-polationfranprevima fixesare used.b. TRACK KXIWASTIffiA prelimbary fmacast trackis develcpedbasedon an evaluationof the rationalebehiti the previouswarningand the guidancegiven by the moat recentset of & jectivetechniquesand numrical prcgncses.This preliminarytrack is then subjectivelynmiifiedbased m the follcxving~ideraticns:(1) The prospectsfor recurvatureor erraticmovementare evaluated. ‘Ihiaevaluatim is basedPrkily on the presentand forecastpositima andauplittieaof the middle-tr~spheric, mid-latitu~troughsand ridgeaaa depictedcn tie latestqpe.rairanalysisarxlnumericalforecasta.(2) Determinationcf the best steeringlevelis partlyinfluencedby the maturity* verticalextentof the tropicalcyclcme. For mature tropicalcycloneslocatedsouth of the subtropicalridge,forecastchangesin speedof nmvementare clcselycorrelatedwith anticipatedchangesin the intensityor relativepositionof the ridge. When steeringcurrentsare relativelyweak, the tendercyfortrcpicalcyclcnesto move rxxthwarddue to internalforcesis an inportantcmsideration.(3) Over the 12- to 72-hcmr (12-to 48-hourin the So&hern Hemisphere)forecastpericd,speed ofnmvementduring the early forecastpericd is usuallybiased tiards persistence,while the subsequentforecastpericrkare biased towardscbjectivetechniques. when a tropicalcyclonemoves poleward,and towardthe mid-latitudesteeringcxxrenta,speedof movementbeccm=esincreasinglymore biased tmmrd aselectivegroup of cbjectivekhniques capableofestirmtingsignificantiwreases in speed of mwement.(4) The proximityof the trcpicalcyclcneto other trcpicalcyclonesis closelyevaluatd todetermineif there is a pcxsibilityof interaction.A final check is made againstclimatologyto2

CHAPTER II - RECONNAISSANCE AND FIXES1. GENERALThe Joint TyphconWarningCenterdependsmreconnaissanceto providenecessazy,accurate,andtimelymeteorologicalinformticm in supportof eachwarning. J’IWCreliesprimarilyon threereconnaissanceplatform:aircraft,satellite,and radar.In data rich areas syncpticdata are also used tosupplementthe akmve. Optixrnnn utilizationof allavailablereconnaissanceresourcesis cbtainedthroughthe SelectiveReccrmaissanceProgram (SRP);variousfactorsare consideredin selectinga specificrecamaissanceplatformincltiingcapabilitiesand limitations,and the tropicalcyclone’sthreatto life and propertyboth afloatand ashore. A sum-ITBrYof reconnaissancefixes receivedduring1985is includedin Section6 of this chapter.2. RECONNAISSANCE AVAILABILITYa. AircraftAircraftweatherreconnaissancefor the JlW2 isperfonwd by the 54th WeatherReccrmaissanceSquadrcm(54thWRS) locatedat AndersenAir ForceBase, Guam.The 54th wRS is presentlyequippedwith six WJ-130aircraftand, fran July throughOctober,is nmnallyaugmentedby two additionalaircraftfran the 53rdWRS, KeeslerAir Force Base, Mississippi,bringiggthe totalnunberof availableaircraftto eight. TheJTVT2reconnaissancerequirementsare provideddailyto the TrcpicalCyclcneAircraftllaammissanceCcordimtor (’KARC),who marriestie taski~ frm tieJ’IW2with the availableairframesfran the 54th wRS.As in previcusyears,aircraftreconnaissanceprovidesdirectmeasurementsof standardpressurelevelheight,temperature,flight-levelwinds,sealevelpressure,estimatedsurfacewinds (whenobservable),and numerousadditionalparameters. Themeteorologicaldab are gatheredby the AerialReconnaissanceWeatherOfficer (ARWJ)and drcpscndecperatorsof Detachment3, 1st WeatherWing who flywith the 54th WRS. These data providethe TyphconDuty Officer (TCO)with indicationsof trcpicalcyclme ~sition and intensity. Anotherimportantaspect is the availabilityof the data for techniquedevelcpnentand tropicalcyclcmereseaxch.b. SatelliteSatellitefixes fran USAF/USNgroundsitesandUSN shipsprovideday and night coveragein the JIWarea of responsibility.Interpretationof this satelliteimageryprovidestrcpicalcyclonepcaitioneand estimatesof currentand forecastintensitiesthroughthe Dvorak technique.C. Radarland radarprovidespxitioning data cn welldevelopedtropicalcyclones.when in the Proxtity(usuallywithin 175 nm (324km)) of the radar sitesin the Philippines,Taiwan,Hong Kong,Japan,SouthKorea,Kwajalein,and Guam.d. SyncpticJTW also determinedtropicalcyclonepositionabased cn the analysisof the surfad gradientlevelsynopticdata. These positionswere helpfulin situationswherethe verticalstructure of the trcpicalcyclae was weak or accuratesurfacepositims franaircraftof satellitewere not available.3. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCESUMMARYEuring 1985,JTW leviedrequir-nta for 192vortexfixes and 59 investigativend.ssiorsof which12 were flcwn into disturbames thatdid mt dwelq.In additicnto the leviedfixes, 167 intermdia~fixesware also obtained. Eighteensynopticmissionswere requeste5and flcwn to prmide mid-levelslxseringinformation. The averagevectorerror fir allaircraftfixes receivedat the J’IW during1985 was11 ml (20km).Aircraftreconnaissanceffectiveneasia summarizedinTable 2-1 using the criteriaset form fiCIICPACI!WT3140.1 (series).4. SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCESUMMARYThe Air Force providessatellitereccnnaisaancesupportto J’IW using tigery frcm a varietyofspacecraft. The trcpicalcyclonesatellitesurveillancenetworkconsistsofboth tacticaland centralizedfacilities. TacticalDMSP sites are locatedatNimitzHill, Guam; Clark AB, Republicof thePhilippines;KadenaAB, Japan;Oaan ?@, Korea;adHickamAl?%,Hawaii. lhese siteaprovidea ~iticoveragethat inclu3esnmst of the JTW2 area ofrespnaibilityin the westernNorth Pacificfran nearTAELE 2-1. AIRCRAFTRECONNAISSANCEFFECTIVENESSNUMBEROFEFFECTIVENESS LEVIEDFIXES PERCENTCO!.lPLETED ON TINE 174 90.6EARLY 4 2.1LATE 4 2.1MISSED 10 5.2TOTAL 192 100.0LEVIED VS. MISSED FIXESLEVIED MISSED PERCENTAVSRAGE1965-1970 507 10 2.01971 802 61 2.01972 624 126 20.21973 227 13 5.71974 358 30 8.41975 217 7 3.21976 317 11 3.51977 203 3 1.51978 290 0.71979 289 1: 4.81980 213 4 1.91981 201 1.51982 276 1: 6.21983 157 3 1.91984 210 2 1.01985 192 10 5.25

the datelinewstward Im the Malay Peninsula. Jl”Wreliesm the Air Force Gl&al WeatherCentral(-) -toprwide coverageover the reminder of itaarea of responsibilityusing storedsatellitedata.The Naval Oceanogra@y CcnmandDatachmmt, DiegoGarcia,prwides F?3AA@ar- orbitirqcoveragein thecentralIndianocean as a supplementto this s~@rt.U.S. NSVy shipsequippedfor direct readcutalsoprwi_& stpplsmentarySqp3rt.AFGW, locatedat OffuttAFB, Nebraska,is thecentralizedmmber of tk trcpicalcyclonesatellitesurveillancenetwork. In s~rt of J’IWC,AEWWPr==a= stored imsgeryfrcm ~P ami N3AA spacecraft.Imageryprcceaaedat AEGVC is recodedodward the spacecraftas it pessesover the earth.Iater, thesedsta are dcwnlinkedto AEGW2 via anetwarkof camnardreadoutsites and cunmunicaticmseb4.lites. This enablesAEt%C to obtain thecoveragenecessaryto fix all tropicalsystemsofin-t to JIW. AFGWJ has the primaryresp3.eibilityto provi& trcpicalc@one surveill.anmover the entire Im3ian@@n, soutlwastPacific,ad the ar~ near the dateline. Additionally,AEGWcan be taskedto providetiopicalcyclcnepcs.itionsin the entire-tern North Pacificas backup tocoverageroutinelyavailablein that region.‘Ma hub of the networkis Det 1, lWW, colkcatedwith JIW on NimitsHill, Guam. Based cm availableS.stelli*~aue. Det 1 coordinatessetellibsniiqiirssrents with J’IW end taskstherecomaissancaIGURE 2-1.individualnetworksites for the necessarytrcpicalcyclae fixes. When a gmsitionfrcm a polar-orbitingsatelliteis requiredas the basis fcr a warning,itis calleda “leviedfix”. To satisfythe “leviedfix”, two sites are taskd to fix the trcpicalcyclcnefrcrnthe same satellitepass. This prcvidesthe n-sary redundancyto virtuallyguaranteeJ1’W2a successfulsatellitefix on the tropicalcyclcne.Using this “dual-site”concept,the .setelli&reconnaissancenetmrkis capableof meeti!qall of JTW2’sleviedsatellitefix requirements.The networkprovidesJ’IWCwith severalproductsad services. The main serviceis one of sumeillance.l?achsite reviewsits daily satellitecoveragefor indicatim of trcpicalcyclonedevelcpnent.If an area exhibitsthe potentialfor develcgment,J’lW is notified. Once J’IW issueseithera formationalert w warning,the networkis taskedto prcvidethreeprcducts:tropicalcyclonepcsiticns,intensityestimates,ad 24-hourintensityforecasts.Satelli* tropicalcyclone~itions are assignedPositionCede Ntmbers (PCN)to indicatethe acmacyof the fix pcsition. ‘??hisis depamientupcn theavailabilityof visiblelam3marksin the imageforprecisegridding,and tti degree of organizatim ofthe trcpicalcyclcne’sc1c05 system (Table2-2).During1985, the networkprovidedJ’lW witi a totalof 2505 satellitefixesrm trcpicalsystem in thewesternNorth Pacific. This is a recordnumberoffixes for & year. 7umtber195 fixeswere mede fortrcpicalsyst&s in the North IndianOcean. APOLAR ORBITERS 1985NOAA6 (0651LST) DNOAA7 (1633LST) ANOAA8 (0737 LST)DNOAA9 (1431 LST) A17540 (F;) (06 12 LST) A18541 (F+) (1010 LST) A~ - Operational==-= - partially Operational or Standby Status* - DMSp SpacecraftLST - Local Sun Time++*- Deactiv~ed 0031Z. olJan86

=m=ison of those fixes of ntired trcpicalcyclones in the westernNorth Pacificwith theircorrespondingJTW best trackpoaiticmsis shcxminTable 2-3a (Crmqariscmof fixeswith the c@respxddingbest track for the ScathPacificand IndianOaeansis presentedin Table 2-3b). Estimatesof thetrcpicalcyclcne’scurrentintensityand 24-hourintensi~ forecastare made every12 hours by applyingthe Ovorak technique(tOAATechnicalReportNESDIS11) to visual and enhaned infraredimgery.Figure2-1 shcws the statusof operational@arorbitingspacecraft. Six were availableat varioustimesin 1985. NOAA 6 sufferedlow pcwer prcbleux+fran the 8th of Januaryto the 18th. It continuedtocperatewith degradedimageryuntilJuly,when it wsplaced m stadby and replacedby the repairedN3AA8. NOAA 8 sufferedfran continuing@cillator Drcblemsuntil finallydeactivatedcm ~ January198~,‘ABLE 2-2.POSITION CODE NUNBERSpassedwithin range of land-basedradarwith sufficientcloudpatternorganizaticmtobe f@d. \ Thelandradar fixes thatwere cbtainedand transmittedto J’IW totaled1360. Three radar fixes werecb~byreeonna” lssanceaircraft.The W radar cde definesthreecategoriesofaccurav gccd (within10 km (513211)), fair (within10-30km (5-16nm)), and par (within30-50 km(16-27nm). of the 1091 radar fixes ceded in thismanner;299 were gccdr 413 were fair,and 379 werepcor. Canparedto the JT??Jbest track,the meanvectordeviationfor lard radar siteswas 13 run(24km). Excellent supportthroughtimelyard accurateradar fix psit.ioningallowedJIW to track andforecasttrcp.icalcycloneumveinenthrougheven thesmst difficulterratictracks.AS in previousyears,no radarreportswerereceivedcm North IndianOcei% trcpicalcyclcmes.‘CN — NETHOD OF CENTER DETERMINATION/GRIDDINC1 EYE/GEOGRAPIIY2 EYE/EPHENERIS3 WELL DEFINED CC/GEOGRAPHY4 WELL DEFINED CC/EPHEMERIS5 POORLY DEFINED CC/GEOGRAPHY6 POORLY DEFINED CC/EPIIENERIS,vingN3AA 6, once again,as the primarymorningspacecraft. kK?AA7 was placedcm stamilbyMarch 3rdaftercperatingwith impairedhigh reaoluticnpicturetransmissions(lD?ET)since8 January. It was replacedby 142AA9, (launched12 December1984) whichbecame fullyoperational9 May. At the ~ of the~*il& 9 was the Cdy fUllyoperationalFKIAA. 6.TABLE 2-23. MEsN D2V1ATION [NM) OF ALL SAT.2LL1T2DEFUV2D TSOPICAL CYCLONE POS1TIONS INTHE SOUTR PACIFIC ANC SOU’271INDIANIXEAN3NU?MER OF CASES IN {P—2Es I.m1234561985(ALL SITES)15.8 (20)15.5 (168126.1 142)29.2 [190)46.9 (241)39.8 (1140)1C2 15.5 (188)364 20.7 [232)5&6 41.1 (1381)m’2’AL—OF CASES{1s01)TROPICAL CYCLONE FIX DATA5. RADAR RECONNAISSANCE ~ total of 4268 fixesm 27 wSSte333 NorthPacifictrcpicalcyclcnesand 195 fixes on 6 hlorthSUMMARYImhn CE.Santrcpicalcyclcneswere receivedatJ’IW. Table 2-4a,Fix PlatformStnmry, delineatesSeventeenof the 27 significanttrcpical the nmber of fixesper platformfor -ch individualcyclonesin the westernNorthPacificduring1985 trqi=l cyclone. Seascntotalsard percentagesareTABLE 2-3a. MEAN DEVIATION (NM) OF ALL SATELLITE DERIVED TROPICALCYCLONE POSITIONS P’ROK4THE JTWC BEST TWCK POSITIONSIN THE WESTERN NORTH i:PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEANS.NUNBER OF mES (IN PARENTHESES) .WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH INDIAN OCEAN1975-1984 AVERAGE 1985 1980-1984 AVERAGE 1985PCN (ALL SITES) (ALL SITES) (ALL SITES) (ALL SITES)1 13.3 (1505) 17.7 (127) 16.7 (40)---- (0)217.4) (1617) 13.2 (175) 18.9 (7) ---- (0)3 20.6 (2176) 24.8 (191) 21.4 (13) 11.5 (8)423.9 (1000) 19.5 (300)64.6 33.1 (2)5 37.4 (4070) 37.0 (311) 34.8 (1+?]28.9 (49)6 42.4 (2278) 32.8 (972) 41.1 (106) 33.6 (97)l&2 15.2 (3122) 15.1 (302) 17.2 (47) ---- (0)3&4 21.6 (3176) 21.6 (491) 41.3 (21) 15.8 (lo)5&6 39.2 (6348) 33.8 (1283) 36.1 (277) 32.1 (146)TOTAL NUMBEROF CASES (12646) (2076) (345) (156)7

T3N2 2-4a. FIX Pu.TPoFnSmwr.3wFUR 1985.FIx PI.?.TFOSJ1 SUMMARYWEST3SN NORTS PACIFIC ~ SATELLITE ~~~5X ELSIE IOlw) 3 23 1 21TS FA31M (02wI 8TY rAY (03H) 1: 1;; 1;;m (04wl iTY HAL (Osw) 1; 1:: 79 4 2;:TY Xw (06W) 22 110 83 215TY .TErF (07wl 23 180 12 314TY KIT (08w] 29 165 2:; 4 4871% L2E (09W) M 61 28 95m 61A!11E [ION) ;T’fNEL30N (llW) 2: 1;: 14: 1 2;:IT 0D82S3 {12W) 31 135 M4 310T3 PAT (13wI ?.6 101; 206‘l’sP?SY {1420 ::112m SKIP (02C) 2: lti138TY TESS [15W) 12 86 5: 152Ts VAT. (16w) 3 64 67TS WINONA [;#] 47 1; ; 69T’YANDY 60 14 2TY B3EHDA [1%$) 2; 95 57 4 1::‘N CECIL (20W)STY D(YT (21W) 2: 1;: 5? 2:;TS ELLIS [22W) 14 iTY PAY (23w) 31 1:: 13; 3::1%TS IRVING (26wI 3 62Ts G03DcNTY HOPE(z*w](25w) 1: :..--------—------------- _—----------------—---_----------------.-—-.mm.1. 349 2505 1360 54 4268a OFTOTALSROFFIX= 8.2 58.? 31.9 1.2 100,0NORTH INDIAN O=AN SM?21.I.11’E am OIB 36 36X 02A 25 25% 03B 26 26TC 04B 20 20T-C05B 30 30Tc 06B 58 58-----------------------------------------------------------ma 195 195* OF TvmrlSs OF F1X3S 100.0 100,0FIX PLATFORM SN6U4ARYl%E SOUTH PACIFIC ANDSOUTH INDIAN CCE3NS .SYNOPTIC=‘K 01s ----‘K 02S 30BM% 03s FJR.IATC 04P ---TC 05S F3ANKTC 06P ----TC 07P 140NKATC 08P -—-TC 09P DRENATC 10S CELESTINATC 11P ERICTC 12S ----TC 13P NIGELTC 14P 0DDElT2TC 15S DITRP.TC 16P PKG3DATC 17s G8RT1E‘lC18P ---TC 19S ES1TE3ATC 20S HUBERTTC 21S PELIKSATC 22S lSOBELTC 23s GER132ENATC 24s ----TC 25s JACOBTC 26P PIERP.3TC 27P GAVINTC 28S K13WTYTC 29s L1ND3AYTC 30P tllNATC 31P SANDYTC 32P TANYATC 33S 21EL1SA0N1NATC 34S GRET3LTc 35s 2mRG0T41, -634s5164 i2543472056612975653626176636833292S61:;465s98301::S65153 8S711213;1;416349:;27434720::2975653626176639873392061;:465s98301?:S75162S78

also indicated.(Table2-4bprovidesthe sameinformaticmfor the South Pacificand South Indianoceans.)lmnex A includesindividualfix data for eachtropicalcyclonein the westernNorth PacificadNorth IndianCceans. (Additionally,it inclcdesindividualfix data for each tropicalcyclonein theSouthPacificand South IndianOceans.) Fix data aredividedinto fcur categories: satellite,aircraft,radar,and synoptic. Those fixes labeledwith anasterisk (*)were determine5to be unrepresentativeof the surfacecenterand were not used in determiningthe best tracks. Withineach category,the firstthreecolumnsare as follcws:FIX NO. - Sequentialfix nunberTIME (Z)- GMT time in day, hours,and minutesFIX FOSITION- Latitudeand longitudeto thenearesttenthof a degreeDependingm the category,the rsmaimkr of theformatvariesas follcws:a. Satellite(1) ACCRY - PositionCode Number is used toindicatsthe accuracyof the fix position. A “l” or“2” in5icatesrelativelyhigh accuracyand a “5” or“6” relatively1~ accuracy(referenceTable 2-2,PcstionCede Nunbers).(2) DVORAXCODE - Intensityevaluaticszandtrend (Figure2-2,Table 2-5). (Forspecifics,referto N3AA TechnicalRepcrtNESDIS11.)(3) CXMMNTS - For an expl.anaticn of thecontractions,see pages vi and vii.(4) SITE - ICAO call sign of the specificsatellitetrackingstation.b. Aircraft(1) FIT LVL - The constantpressuresurfacelevel,in millibars, sx altitu3e,in feet,maintainedduring the penetration. The usual flightlevel flu..min developingtrcpicalcyclonesis 700 mb, due toturbulenceconsiderations.I.cw-levelmissionsarenormallyflcwnat 1500 ft (457m).(2) 700 MB HGI’- Minim.mheightof tie700 mb pressuresurfacewithinthe vortexrecordedin meters.(3) OBS mLP - If the surfacecentercanbe visuallydetected (e.g.,in the eye), the minimumsea-levelpressureis cbtainedby a drcpscridereleaseabove the surfacevortexcenter. If the fix is madeat tie 1500-fcot level,the sea-levelpressureisextrapolatedfran that level.(4) mX-SFCWND - The maximumsurfacewind(knots)is an estimatemade by the ARW3 based cn seastate. This cbservaticmis limitedto the regionofthe flightpath and may not be representativeof theentiretropicalcyclcme. Availabilityof data 1Salso depetientupm the absenceof undercastconditionsandthe presenceof adequateillmi.nation.‘ItIepositionsof the maximumflightlevelwind and themaximumc@servedsurfacewind do not necessarilycoincide.(5) MAX-FLT-LVL-WND- wind spee3 (knots)atfight level is measuredby the AIVAPN 147 dcpplerradar systemaboard the w2-130 ai.rcraf t. Thismeasurementmay not representthe maxinnmflightlevelwimi aseociati with the trcpicalcyclcneO~-e.UMenZand dommux i~en&i.tydenlved-@omAatel.Pi,tc daall. In the example.thtCUJLILenX T-rumba.iA3.5 but tk CW#lt?d .intt?nA.i@ti.tinmte .iA 4.5(@mLta’Lt -to77 k-t).The cloud Aqbt?m haA iiiiikenedby 1.5 T-numbti b.i.nee tht pmmiouA evaQmtion coRduti-24 houAA tw&ie& The p&A (:)AymboL.ino!imttian cxpmted ~evetAa.2o{ the weakeningtiendok vw lit.tte{u.m%ezweakw.ingod the tiopicde.yelonedutingthe newt 24-houhpaiod.?ASLE 2-5.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (XT)AS A FUNCTIONOF DVOPAR CI & FI(CURICSNT6 FORECAST INTENSITY)NVMSER AND MINIMUM SEA-LEVELPRESSURE(MSLP)TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND MSLP[NTENSITY NUM8ER SPEED (NW PAC2FIC)0.0

c. Fadar(1) RADAR - Specifictype of platform(land,aircraft,or ship) utilizedfor fix.(2) Acx!Y- Accuracyof fix poaiticm(~,fair, or poor) as given in the W19)grouriiradarweatherobservationcde (F’M20-V).(3) EYEsHAFE - Gscmetricalrepreaentaticmof the aye given in plain language(circular,ellirtical,etc.).(4) EYE DIA - Diameterof aye given inkilanatars.(5) RADoBaxE - ‘rakendirectlyfrcan??43grand hwdhr rd= dxervaticm de El@o-V. Thefirstgrcup specifiesthe vmtex Parame-s, tiletheaeccd mdescrib=the mwemant of the vortexCerlter.(6) RADAR ?XH?I’ION- ~titude and lqitudeof trackingstationgiven in tenthaof a degxee.(7) SITE - WM3 station number of thespecifictrackingstation.d.Synoptic(1) INTENSITYE3’1’IHATE - An estims~ of *trcpicalcyclonets maximumsustainedsurfacewind inknots is based cm the trcpicalcyclcneforester’sanalysisof lcw-lavelsynopticdata.(2) NEARESTDA~ - The accuracyof asyncpticfix is baaed cn ttE distancein nauticalmiles fran the estimated fix @ticm to * neareatsyncptic report or to the average distance of reportsin data sparae areas.(3) C@MN1’S - For an explanaticmof theccmtracticmssee pages vi ad vii.10

CHAPTER 111- SUMMARY OF WESTERN NORTH PACIFICAND NORTH [NDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES1. GENERALDuring 1985,JTW issuedwarningson 27 westernNorth Pacifictropicalcyclcnes (1 trcpicaldepression,9 tropicalstorms,16 typhconsard one supertyphoa-1).Thiswas a3.mostan averageyear whenccWared to the cl.in=tolqicalman of 27 fm thefrequencyof tropicalstormsand typkmns. Six northIndianOcean trcpicalcyclones,all of trcpicalstormintensi~, develqed as canparadto the cMmatologicalaverageof four. In sumnary,JTW2 issuedwarningsm 33 northernhemispheretropicalcyclmes.In 1985 for the =stern North Pacifictherewere 127 warningdays - a warningday is definedas aday duringwhich JTW2 issueswarningscn at leastonetrcpicalcyclcne. For 38 of these 127 days, warningswere king issueda two trcpicalcyclones. lhereware also 2 three-cyclcnedays, 2 four-cyclcnedays,and one day in which JTW issud warningsm fivedifferentWESTPACtrcpicalcyclcmesat the same time.Wherethe north IndianOcean trcpicalcyclcnesareincluded,therewere 141 mrning days, 41 bmcyclonedays,3 threecyclonedays, 3 four-cyclonedays ard 1 five-cycloneday.Six hundrsdad fifteenwarni~s were issuedonthe 27 westernNorth Pacifictropicalcyclmes and 54were issuedcn the six north IndianO@an tropicalCyclales. There were 39 initialTrcpicalCyclcmeFormationAlerts (’I’@A)for WESTPACand 8 for thenorth IndianOcean. In WES1’PAC,=As were issuedfor all exceptone of the significanttropicalcyclcnesthat develcpedduring1985. The falsealarmrate of 33% for WESTPACseems fairlyhigh,hcxvever,it did enableJ’IW to providethe custcmerwith anman led time of 27.5 hours cn significanttropicalcyclcmedevelqxnant. For the North IndianOceanTCFAs were issuedfor all but one of the significanttropicalcyclmes. The false alarm rate forTCFAS was 38% with a mean led time of 20.2 hours.2. WESTERN NORTH PACIFICTROPICALCYCLONESThere are severaltiterestingaspectsof the1985 trcpicalcycloneactivity. In general,it canbe neatlydividd into @m pericds:the earlypart,Januaryto August and the late,Septenberto Eecsnber(seeccnpositetropicalcyclcmebest trackscn pages15 ad 16). The early 1985 ccaqmsitebest tracksshcw that the overwhelmingmajorityof the tropicalcyclonesduring that pericd recurw d, that is: 11recurversversus3 was.t-ncrthwestraightrunrersand one lcw-latitudetropicalstorm (Fabian)whichtehaved=ratically. l%is is aunawhatatypicalsince, normally,them jority of the recurvers cccurduring the later ~t of the year when breaks in tiesubtropical high pressure ridge develcp as theinfluence of the mid-latitude trcughs extends furthersouth with t~ approach of fall. me PhilippiwIslandsw.?reaperedduring the first part of theye=, exept fcu a glancingblew frcm TyphconHS1 inJune. Hmaver, during that pericd,no less than 8tropicalcyclonesaffected,or FCSed a direct threatto, Okinawa,Korea and Japan. In acme ca~ the sametrcpicalc@ore affecteilall three. Noticetbepint 200 m (370km)South-satheastof Okinawa—four,ard nearlyfive,clifferent trqical cycloretracksintersectedat that location. The majorgenemticn areasduring the firstpart of the yearwsre: a two-to-threedegreeswath oenteredcn sixdegreesnorti I.atitde,fran the southeasterncoastof the PhilippineIsLamlsto near Ponspe;anotherarea north of Guam; and a thirdares scuth ofOkinawa.A majcr &ift in trcpicalcycla?eactivityoccurredduringthe secondpart of the year (see~ite best wacks cn page 16). Notice that~lY2 trcpicalcyclcmesrecurvad. Whereas,Japan arrlKoreareceivedthe brunt of the trcpicalcyclcneactivitythe firsthalf of the year, it was tkPhilippinesand Vietnamwhich suffarednmst duringthe Secoti. ‘ibreetyphoonsand ona supertyptitransitedLuson. In tiditicn,one ty@ccn crcsaadthe southernPhilippineIslands. Three typhoonsaffectednorthernVietnamand a total of 4 ty@ccnaand 4 trcpicalstormsstruckthe Asian minlard fransouthernVietnamto the vicinityof Horg Kong. Themajor generatia areaawere: one west of Pal.swanIslandin the South China Sea, ard the other rnuthan5 southeastof Guam. ~is contrastswith the firstpart of the year, when generation locaticns were moreevenly distributed over WTPAC.In the westernNorth Pacific,tropicalcyclcmesreachingtropicalstorm intensity,or greater,areassignednames in alphabeticalorder frcm a list ofalternatingmaid femalenames (referto AppendixII).Table 3-1 provid~ a surmnaryof key statisticsforall westernNorth Pacifictrcpicalcyclones. Eachtrcpicalcyclcne’smaximnnsurfacewind and minimumsea-levelpressure (inmillibars) were &tained franbest estimatesbased cn all availabledsta. Thedistan~ traveld was calculatedfrcm the JT$Y2officialbeat tracks (seeAnnex A).11

Tsbles3-2 through3-5 providefurtherinformationcm the monthlyend yearlydistributicmof tropicsl cyclones,warningsend TrcpicalCycloneFormationAlerts.TAELE 3-1.WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC1985 SIGNIFIwT TROPICAL CYCLONES‘TROPICALCYCLONEOIW02WTS ELSIETS FAEIAN03W TY GAY04W TD 04W05W TY HAL06W07WTY IRMATY JEFF08w TY KIT09W TS LEE10W TY MAMIEllW TY NELSON12W TY ODESSA13W TY PAT14W TS RUBY02C TY SKIP15W TY TESS16w TS VAL17W TS WINONA18W TY ANDY19W20WTY BRENDATY CECIL21W STY DOT22W TS ELLIS23w TY FAYE24w TS GORDON25W TY HOPE26w TS IRVINGCALENDARDAYS OFPERIOD OF WARNING WARNING07 JAN - 09 JAN 309 JAN - 13 JAN 521 MAY - 26 MAY 618 JUN - 20 JUN 319 JUN - 25 JUN 625 JUN - 01 JUL 722 JUL - 02 AUG 1203 AUG - 11 AUG 911 AUG - 14 AUG 416 AUG - 20 AUG 517 AUG - 24 AUG 823 AUG - 01 SEP 1027 AUG - 01 SEP 628 AUG - 01 SEP30 AUG - 08 SEP 1:01 SEP - 06 SEP 715 SEP - 18 SEP 419 SEP - 22 SEP 428 SEP - 02 OCT 529 SEP - 05 OCT 712 OCT - 16 OCT 513 OCT - 22 OCT 1016 OCT - 20 OCT 523 OCT - 01 NOV 1020 NOV - 26 NOV 717 DEC - 24 DEC18 DEC - 21 DEC84NUMSER OFWARNINGSISSUED91622102227433315172739;:3422141116251634193923::1985 TOTALS: 127* 715* OVERLAPPING DAYS INCLUDED ONLY ONCE IN SUM.MAXIMUMSURFACEWINDS-KT (M/S)40 (21)55 (28)100 (51)30 (15)100 (51)90 (46)75 (39)85 (44)60 (31)70 (36)95 (49)90 (46)95 (49)55 (28)80 (41)75 (39)50 (26)50 (26)70 (36)90 (46)100 (51)150 (77)50 (26)100 (51)45 (23)100 (51)60 (31)ESTIMATEDMSLP. MB995989951992942957967959985975961957961982974967992990970964944897995960997948994BEST TRACKDISTANCETRAVSLED-NM (KM)976 (1808)507 (939)1464 (2711)441 (817)1305 (2417j2413 (4469)2668 (4941)1953 (3617)1326 (2456)1335 (2472)1651 (3058)2328 (4311)1337 (2476)1310 (2426)1822 (3374)1470 (2722)1630 (3019)518 (959)705 (1306)1551 (2872)1034 (1915)3074 (5693)1046 (1937)1849 (3424)797 (1476)1444 (2674)806 (1493)TARLE 3-2.1985 SIGNIFICANTTROPICALCYCLONESWESTERNNORTH PACIFIC (1959-1985)JAN FES WAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEp OCT NOv ~ = ~ -TROPICALDEPRSSS1ONS 000001 000000 1 3.7 99TROP1CALSTOIN4S 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 9 9.9 268TYPHOONS 000012 153401 17 17.3 468ALL TsOPICALCYCLONES 200013 175512 27 30.9 8351959 - 196>AVERAGE .6 .3 .7 .8 1.3 2.0 4.7 6.3 5.7 4.6 2.6 1.4 30.9CASES 15 8 18 22 34 54 128 170 153 124 71 38 835FORMATIONALERTS: 26 of 39 Formation Alerts developed into significant tropical cyclones.TropicalcycloneFormationAlertswere issuedfor all exceptone of thesignificanttropicalcyclonesthat developedin 1985.WARWINGS: Numberof calendarwarningdays: 127Numberof calendarwarningdays withtwo tropicalcyclonesin region: 32Numberof calendarwarningdays withthree or more tropicalcyclonesin region: 612

TABLE 3-3.FREQUENCY OF TYPHOONS BY MONTH AND YSARYEAR JAN FEB MAR APR y?& JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV OEC TO!2AL—(1945-1958)AVESAGE .4 .1 .3 .4 .7 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.0 .9 16.31959 000100 153322 17196019610031020110213280411353111920196219630001205000112724303334024191964 0000226 3534 : 263.965 1001224 35210 211966 0001 1364201201967 0011 :134433 0 201968 0001111 435 01969 100100 2323 :0 :;1970197101000100 3126350423101012241972197310000000:011444224003:2222121974 000012 123420 151975 100000 134 20 141976 1002.22 214 :10 1519771978000000000100302324 : ;1 11151979 101100 22321 ; 14198019010000200100325210;2241215161982 002011 253 :1 191983 000000 321 :20 121904 000000 421531 161985 000012 153401 17(1959- 1985]AVSIL4GE .2 .04 -2 .6 .S .9 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.1 1.6 .6 17.3CASES 6 1 6 15 21 25 74 90 85 85 43 17 468TABLE 3-4.F3GW3BNCY OF TROPICAL STORNS AND TYPHOONS BY MONTH AND YEARYEAR JAN FEB NAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL—— —. . . . . . . —- —(1945-1958)AVERAGE .4 .1 .4 .5 .8 1.3 3.0 3.9 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.1 21.61959 011100 366422 261960 0001133 10341 271961 1111325 4651 : 311962 010120 673532 301963 00 01134 35503 251964 0 0 0022 797661 401965 2211235 67221 341966 000121 58 321 301967 1021116 8 ;431 351968 0001113 3640 271969 1011003 :3321 191970 010002 26454 0 241971 1013428 46420 351972 1000136 54523 301973 0 0000075 2430 211974 1011144 55442 321975 10000 245530 201976 11022 :445112 251977 0010014 15421 191978 1001034 7 4 30 281979 1011104 2 ;322 241980 0001414 2 411 241981 0012 02 57 :232 281982 0030134 55311 261983 0000013 52552 231984 0000025 54731 271985 20 0012175 512 26(1959-1985)AV8RAGE .5 .3 .5 .8 1.1 1.6 4.3 5.4 4.9 4.1 2.4 1.2 27.3CASES 14 7 14 21 30 44 117 147 131 112 66 33 73613

TABLE 3-5.FORMATION ALERT SUMMARYW3STERN NORTH PACIFICYEARNUMBEROF ALERTSYSTEMSALERT SYSTEMS TOTALNHICH BECAME NUMBEREDNUMBEREDTROPICALTROPICAL CYCLONES CYCLONESDEVELOP14ENTUTE19753425 2574%19763425 2574%19772620 2177%19783227 3284%19792723 2885%19803728 2876%19812928 2997%19823626 2872%19833125 2581%19843730 3081%19853926 2767%(1975-1985)AVBRAGE32.925.7 27.178%CASES362283 29814

.r.r .G, r,, ~: Ti:, :T, , ,.,—... .. t+(m-s m) Wzm wf19Kw.sl~ ..,~; . ...=. ,.:: .:. ..:. :::.. .;: ::::1 1:1:1.01 ! n 1, 1, 11, M-,$, k>{, I I I I I1:1’:1c 1 1 1 I I4; / I 1 C8 Y 1\/... L/,1.~++k1:”:I1::: I’m--d1’”: I’.kil1“L:”’ I/--w!1 ,. ,-. -... ,1 [ I I 8 44,., +’+

4!’:’’!’”1-}: !:s“ 4“”’K’>1,:.,, / :,31.- t \ 1.. . ,- ‘ %!H:l1, 1.,111:..,’I&l A+ ’/’l/”lPIz 1

J“-v”- ‘“”* - ‘ -- -“ ‘ -A - ~~~,.. .... , ,_ ,,, , --,. . ,, --,. ~iy,,‘ ..8 ,,,,- ‘,’,- , ‘,,- -,,,, :;- - ““”--,, ,,- .,, ,,- _., .- -., .,- . . . . ,.. -.,,--. .,. --., ,, ..,, , --., ,. ,,, , ‘3a TROPICAL.,. --,STORM. ..- -., . H:. .,.. -, ..- -., ..- -,, .ELSIE.-. ..,. .,, .BEST TRACK TC - 01W--,, , ,.-., .--,, .,.-.. . ,,. --,. 07 JAN-09 JAN 85. . . . --, “.&:HA.-.,,. . . -. .,,. . :=$:}/ .-,, ,.. -,, . .-,, ,. -, MAX SFC WIND 40 KT,11 , , , # ,@ r , ,, I } MINIMUM SLP 995 MBS. IWO JIMAMARCUS ‘“”” ““+ -!- -r -r +LEGENDT:’rw’O”l - 5“:::T0::’f 50:’1 (:”“*, 1 , .-w-4 I , ~G ++ 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSIT1 , r,+ “ A SPEED OF MOVEMENT.. r..- -....- -. ,’.- -., , . ... ,,- .,. ,B INTENSITY,, ,,, C POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ*o. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE,.. .,. .● ●O TROPICAL DEPRESSION~.- -., . .-- TROPICAL STORM, , 1,— TYPHOONI ,‘ 17 SA/PA + SUPER TYPHOON START‘b - ‘“”””- ““”- -“”- ““”+:. -. ..,- ... ,,- -,, : 0 SUPER TYPHOON END4+4 EXTRATROPICAL‘- -’ — - -,.- ... , .- -,, ..,, -.,, ,.. .,, ,,! ?...;;: :“, :>. .-: :.. . ..- -., *4 Dlss[pATING STAGE* FIRST WARNING ISSUED,., . . . . .- .,. . . ,NEW:,A * LAST WARNING ISSUED.* -~08 --0,- -.. .- .,, ..- ., - -. ’.. -. :.- -----,,- .“;’ “w’ -“”. KWFJ?,LHN .“”, ,,, , ,7/(soz ‘“’, ”,.. - . . . . . ~ ~NFpE : :.- -- i4Aj&0[,..i,..i,..3,..,,.,,,. .,..,.,“‘- ““’”” ‘“’”’- -;”1 -TCFA “’” ‘“” ‘“’”“E#w - - ; :“’f”, - .: ;:;. -;;!:.- -- -.. . -.. ~35/, .-. ..,-. . . . . .-,. . ... ,,. .,.-- - -- -- - ~oBx -;~- - -. . ..- - OARA? !t1 r , I ,,.-:0!., I 1, ,,, ,ta.%- ---- ~~~‘9 “’”” ““’ ‘“”’ -.u .’.- -. ..,-- ---- .. ’- -,: :: ::.. ;:’”. -.::. ::”:. -$ ,L J’ 4* , , I‘-1“ ‘ ““’.-”““”’”- “tt” ““’-” ‘“”’- “’”””- ““”..” . ,., ..- .>.’ , ;%.>.. ~~~~ ““.. :: . . . ::::; -..-. . . . . .. ,..:: :.’ :::: ,~ & , ,.,,.,,i.’”’.,.. .1 jJ+-+++-4“.. . :.,, . -., !, . . . . ..- -. .,. . . . ..a-%,,. ... , . -.. ,t“’v: -- :. ..- -. . ..- -, ..,- -.“.””-,., -,.,,, .I

TR3PICAL.SIOF@l ELSIE (OIW)TropicalStormElsie, the first trcpicalcycloneof the 1985 seascn,was also the first tropicalstormto dwelop duringJanuaryin six years. Warningswere issuedfor mly two days and it never intensifiedbeyond40 kt (21#s).Duringthe firstweek of Januarythe near-equatorialtroughwas@& active,and extendedfran thesouthernPhilippinessoutheasttm the vicinityof theEquatorand 160E. IMedded in this troughwere two%ak circulations,one southwst of Guam which wouldlaterdevelopinto TropicalStorm Fabianand anothersoutheastof GUSM which would eventuallydevelcpinto Elsie. Enhancedconvectiveactivityprsistadthroughoutthe region.The clcud systemthat was to becameElsie firstappearedon 4 Januaryaa an area of weak convectionsouthwestof Pohnpei (~nape w 91348). The convectionpersistedthroughthe4th, and m the 5th beganto increasein strengthand organizatim. At 00002on the 6th, analysisof satelliteimagerygave thefirstindicationsthat a lwlevel circulationcenterwas developing. Sparsesyncpticdata up to thist.im had only indiceti that a vary broad 10 to 15 kt(5 to 8 #s) cycloniccirculationwas present. Thepersistenceand improvedorganizationof the convectiaresultedin the disturbancebeingnnzmtionedinthe 0606002SignificantTrcpicalWeatherAdvisory(A13mPGIw). The disturbancewas assessedas havinga “fair”potentialfor furtherdevelopment(meaningthat it was consideredlikelythat a !I@A would bsissuedduringthe next 24 hours). Indeed,thiswasthe case.Analysisof satelliteimageryduringthe nextten hours sho+d continueddevelcgmnt, with Dvorakintensityanalysisof the 0616002imageryestimating-surfacewimisof 25 kt (13I#s). This wasconfirmedby a late 0612002ship reportmar thePbrtlcckIslands(SatawanAtollWMI 92338)whichobservedmxthwast w- of 30 kt (15tie.).Aa aresult,a ‘lCFAwas issuedat 0617002.Just prior to 070000Z,the firstaircraftreconnaissancemiasicmwasconductedMm ttedisturbance.It locateda 25 kt (13n#s) circulationenter at062238zapproximately60 nm (111km) northeastof theMxtlmk Islandsrear 5.8N 154.4E. As tie W-130exitedto the southwesta short time later,a smallarea of 30 kt (15tis) surface winda was cbserved.This prcmptedthe firstwarningon Elsie, as a 30 kt(15K#s) trcpicaldepression,valid at 070000z.Elsie was upgradedto a 35 kt (18m’s) trcpicalstormat 0706002based m ayncpticdata receivedfrctnthe MnrtlockIslands. The tropicalcyclonebrieflyattainedan intensityof 40 kt at 0712002.Fran the tim Elsie was detecteduntilthe timeJ’lWCwent to warningstatue,the disturbance hadmoved to the northwestat about 7 kts (13kdhr) .After 0700002,however,Elsie accelerate to thenorthwestas it moved aroundthe westernperipheryof the subtropicalridge,passingeast of Truk(~ 91334)at about O71OOOZ. As Elsie mcved f~ernorth (Figure3-01-1)it encounteredstrongsoutherlywitis aloft freinan upper-levelanticyclonasouth ofWake Island (WM391245). These winds ehearedoff thecentralconvection. Aa a result,Elsie quicklylostall organizaticmand rapidlyWakened. Its low-levelcirculationcculd not be lccatedtn satelliteimageryor W aircraftreconnaissanceafter O821OOZ. ‘l’hefinalwarningwas issuedat 0900002.Aa Elsie passedeast of Guam it did enhancetietradewinds,with gusts to 31 kt (16II#s)~emed atthe U. S. Naval OceanographyCcxnmardCenter/JointTyphoonWarningCenterbuildingon Nhitz Hill.After Elsie dissipated,a secondarycirculatiaformedin its wake near Guam and persistedfor twodays until it also moved to the !mrtkast and dissipated.Figwvz3-01-1. Tfiop&a.tStem E&iQ wetdwdngAoutkt?dt Od Guam. La.tQA,&tiong uppeI-.&@&windnoz.thad E&ke ~kemed mug .tkecen-t@lconvection.ltapidwtikeni.ngand di.6@mtion quickly 6oU.owed.(The dibtiance $kat woutd ~oon devctopintoTtop.iu.tStOm FabianiA Locatedto the notikm6t o~E.Lbie) [Oi10047ZJanuazgIX(.SP wL6uali.maget.g).19

1“1-fsi$’IiJ-I ., ,.i,,. -.. .,., ,.-., MAX SFC WIND 55“, &~MA . . .. . . . . . . . . . ii! : . - , MINIMUM Slp 989—125++’ + + BEST TRACK TC-02W +I,;,1,,, ,@, - “,+‘kKT ..-MBSIwoJIMA4. & & J50LEGEND130°.+. ... +.. .,-L ,..l(j5”-t2,,.h)oi-””>U.IJj ~ “- .+* LAST WARNING ISSUED,,, ,.q /. ‘. ,2( .ti,3,0z, . . . . . . .–m\.—.‘t:ENEWETAKte- ‘, I 1 I1 !10°;). .O ..,. -, .,.. .,.c --0- -- -aQ- .: .:: :: ...: ::,.. .., ,. .., - -E’: ... ::.. - :“”’ : : -:.:’. FQNAPE .: . . ..:t , 1 , , v ,.):- -- -- - - -’”- - ‘ ‘OsRA: --. 45. . /7 . . . .. . . . . . . . - .-....,_,0“1b,.. .-..,.=& .,,- . . ...’. . ..~.’- -. .,- ..- -.t. . . . --.. . .- ~.. ., ..&‘%,, , .!. .C ?. ...

TFKIPICALSlX3RMFABIAW (02W)Figuze3-02-1. The developmento~ Tfiop.ica.t Sto?uuFabianmo,tked-the&LILAttime .& &tet@ geam -thattwotiop.icdbiOJOtLA ~omned in (UESTPACdwz.imgJaw.uuy.Fabiandeveloped & the weh.te.zn end o{ theneat-equa.tozi.dtiough, and ah a fiehu.tthad majoahI.&AActi.mLAw.+ the notiheiu~motioon. NOZ~tipti.ixglij, the ~tiongti~w.iti wae coti.i6Zen@obAe-wed in the tiopic.dcyclone’b weh.tehn A em.icimte,whtie the gn.ad.ient beiween the .&w centz.atpwubtie o{ Fabianand the highs pAeAAu4eAo~ theSibcti.anaticyclone waA the gfiea.ttit.Tht [aboue]Aa.tetl%ei.magcmy Ah& Fabian,ah a weakeningTfiopiti%onm, with a wtU-de@vul .tmo-fkuetdmdution. Fabian’A huo-leud &tcu.&.tion WUAexpo~ed dot much 04 .i..tA Lid&time due .toA.tlonguPP~-@ti W&dA @om the Aou.thwhich Ah~ed theconve~on fo Ihe notih. The Thopicut MOW pahbedVW ~oAe ~0 yap (wMO91413)and cau.hedcotiidetabtecRop damageon home o{ -theouzeI .4i?.andA(10063OZ Janu@y NOAA vima.timagezy).21

-.. -.,, BEST. . . . .-..TRACK TC-03 W., .,.- . . ...” ..- -. - L- -- -,1 I I , I , t d++,...,. ““ .’.’ ““’‘“ Fb-,-, ,t t r~ 9u,.l“’i! ’1” I. , t o ,1,,, ,.- ..,. .,,.\J2. ‘!. ~:. . . .. . . . ,.mY -‘“1“ ~~ I,~o.).’ .,t A4 +4+...+ ..+ ..+ .1. . . . .-. . .-.. >*-. I I ..- I I I I1.. +..+. +-,_:-’ j- ‘k” t,.~- 2MJ~~ --’- -- -.@ ..- -’. . --- -“JIMA - -. . ..- --- -.I , I t,.. . .~. - -:5” 110”’’ ”:,,..,. ,.*K.-r ,..160°, 1 5“1 1.-: ...-%.f=;;:~it#“”” ““/,:’ .“- ““”- ‘“”””- -“’ 7““~ –’”+I I 1,, .LEGEND:!L-i-L-IeWETAK+10 -tPy 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSITSPEED OF MOVEMENTn INTENSITY. . . . . . .i(SAiPAU. . . ~ POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ. . . TROPICAL DISTURBANCE>.- . .‘GUM” ● ● * TROPICAL DEPRESSION$. ,.. -- TROPICAL STORMTYPiiOON* SUPER TYPHOON STARTo SUPER TYPHOON END+44 EXTRATROPICAL● W* DISSIPATING STAGE# FIRST WARNING ISSUEDLAST WARNING ISSUEDw)--t—+–+–’–l– –+-t ,. t’””’ t-, I t I , I I1 , [ , I I , ; ‘KO$Ai “~-~,,. . .“t,.. .-.. .$j - -- -“” “::, ,,, ,,, ,,, ,,,I ~ ,,,1, ~GAPoRE.,. .. L... . ..”. ~ pg. - -I I-wv. --- -“ -’”- -“”’”’:””,,.- e9&----lI[

TYPH03NQLY (03W)TyphconGay was the first tropial cyclonetoreach typhmn intensityin 1985. It was also theseason’sfirst to enter the mid-latitufk? westerliesand recurve. The formationof Gay foil- nme banfour monthsof inactivityin WESTPACand markedthestartof the 1985 summr tropicalcyclme seascn.‘lTetropicaldisturbancethat eventuallyintensifiedintoTyphoonGay was firstdetectedby syncptic dab on 16 May as a mak surfacecirculaticm380 nm (704km) wast-sathest of Koror (WM391408).The convectionin this ares ap~arsd to be Kandcin.Anotherarea of disorganizedconvectionwasdevelopingfurthereast along 139E urder an area ofupper-leveldiffluenceassociatedwith a westmrdmoving upper-levelanticyclone.To the north, atropicalupper-trcpos@erictrough (TWIT)extendedfran the Volcano Islandssouthwestto justeast ofthe Philippines. Figure3-03-1shows the movementsand lccationsof the upper-levelanticyclcnicardlow-levelcyclcmiccirculationsover a fivedayperial as @y went throughits formativestages.Althoughtie upper-leveland lc+level circulationsbecame nearlyverticallyalignd on 19 May, thedisturbancestill struggledfor Wo more days befcxereachingtrcpica1 storm intensity..Theumst probablecause for this 51W intenaificationwas the clcseproximityof the TU1’Tto the north,whichrestrictedthe uppr-level outflcw to the !mrthwest(Figure3-03-2).Between00002 and 06002on the 19th @o differenttacticalD14SPsites,based upon Dvorak intensityanalyses of satellite imagery, estimated that tiedisturbance had 30 kt (15tis) surfacewinds. Theseincreasedintensityestima=s were foundd cn themore organizedintenseconvectionassociatedwiti theuppsr-levelcirculationcenter,which was thendisplacdapproximately5Q nm (93Iun)southeastof thesurfaceoenter. These satellitereconnaissanceinputsprarptd a ‘ICFAto be issuedat 1908002.At tie tima of the ‘ICFA,sparsesynqtic data nearthe disturban= centercculdnot confirmthe satellitederivedintensities.Hcwever,syncpticdata onthe priphery of the disturbanceimpliedthat atleasta 15 kt (8tie.)circulationwas present. Untilthis tire,the only reportedstrongerwind was thegradient-levelwind at Koror (WM391408)whichincreasedfran 9 kt (5 tis) at 171200Zto 27 kt(14tis) at 1800002as the disturbancepassedwestof the islandlate cn the 17th. For the remaimierof the 19th and into the 20th,with the ‘II?I?T continuingtoexert influencecn the disturbame, therewas m significant~rovement in the tropicalcyclone’sorganization.As a result,the lCFA wasreissuedat 2007002.++KIN+~1D‘in● —10w- LSVE1CIRCULATION*— UP?[R-UVELANTtC?KLONE+Figtie3-03-2. The ZJLopkcd titia.nce, wtich wou-fd.hZW devtiop into TyphoonGay, i.Ahz.tazatig withthe uppem-LeueL tzough XO the nox.thueh.t.The outd.tcwh hehtzitied on the noL#noeh2bide o~ the .ULOp.icalcyc%lone(20051~Z Mug NOAA vima,t.imag~).F.igtie3-03-1. The.hep-!otiAhw the pObi..I%W andmovementh o{ the uppe.z-4.eueL an.ticgtiotic and R.OW-LeueL cytioticticul.atiotitig Gag’A tjofuna.tivepez.iod.The juxxixpohi-tion o~ -theAeUPPVL-and &w-Level ticu.t.dionhon 79 May UALLUL!Y.Lndica-tutheZAOPLULZ cycloneA fieachingmoXuz&y. Hrxueva,thepae.hence06 the TUTT .tothe noti and noh.tkiueht .iAthought Zo have hpeded devtiopmeti -thoughthe ‘Z1At.The firstwarningon Gay was issuedat 21OOOOZafter visualsatelliteimgery showedthe comaetion was developingover the low-levelcirculationand Dvorak intensityanalysisestimatedthat 35 kt(18#s) surfacewinds were present. The presenceofthe upper-leveltroughand its restrictiveinfluenceon outflcwaloft stronglyinfluencedthe intensityforecastscm the first nine J’lWJwarnings. @y wasexL==tedf= stremthen cmlY SIWIY, then msintdin23

Figure 3-03-5shcws the effectof the strongverticalwim3 shear cn the remainingconvectionfran thestorm’scirculation. Gay ccmpletcrlextratrcpicaltransitionat 2606002when the finalwarningwesissued.After ccqleting extratropical transition, thenearly convecticm free lcw-level circulatim driftedeastwardand eventuallydissi@ed. There were nore~b uf lives lost w damage to shippingfranTyphccmGay.F.iguze3-03-5. h Gug cornpkkttiU.ttoxtophttz%atii.tion, the uppti-&ZvtiWUW&iti a-teAaz4i.ngthe conuwt.hn swag to tha notihwt o{ Zhe &xo-Levat c.i.zcuh.timn cetia (2604132 L@ NOAA vtio.atinlagVyl.25

h---~-ili~.?~lll”l””+”””’+”’+’””’TROPICAL.-., .17’,. . . . . .- -.. . . .-.. . . .-.. . .- -.. ... . . ,- -.. .- -., .- . . . . .--,, ,,.. . ...--., ,....,,.,-. . .-..,,....-.. -,.. ,- . .- -.,..--,. .-.. .,--.,. .- , ,.. .16*I, , r1 , , r ,,k*4. . . . . . . .- . . . . . .- .,, . . J.1,-:’~jSHANC,HA!O ,,.- -., . . - -., . . - . . . . . - -..!. - ., .,,T , 1 I I I ,..+ /. - ., . ..- -. . ..- -., ..- -. . ..- . . . . .{.-I,,. - -,,..- -,,..“25B “ --“”’.”””(,,!1 , ,I 1 I, ,th ,T 1P/- -- ‘i: ‘ :“”” ““” ““’” ““”” “’”- f

--., , .- -,..,.d. .- -.. . -.. .,~:,..-.. . . ,..t‘tNPHOON‘“’”}+ HAL,., .6tBEST TRACK TC-05w-;’”; ?+:!’?-“-v” ‘“’””* “’””- ‘“”4.- -- --1--“ :“’” :’:’‘- - ~ ~‘HAN’ ~A’o”:00: -- --- --19 JUN -25 JUN 85MAX SFC WIND 100KT4 -’ MINIMUM SLP 942 MBS-!1 130? : ?.;. -. . ..- -., ,.. --., . . . ... . .- -,. .:? 0’ ,8:: ,.,,4! !_ ..- -,, ,- -., ..- .l“””” ‘“”,,,#g,.. . . . . . ., 0.. i:::l::fI I I I. .- JIMA J-,, . . . . . . . .L., .LI 1 t I ,. , t , , , $ 13 ! 1 Ih ,a?--$ -r --,. ..,- -., . -,. I W,O JIMA .----- -QMARCU~I .1./zl. ------I! lNTENSiTY,,, ~ POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ. . . TROPICAL DISTURBANCEz%,,: .#d2B* : : : . . . TROPICAL DEPRESSIONi . -- TROPICAL STORM ‘::1— TYPHOON* SUPER TYPHOON STARTo SUPER TYPHOON ENDw+ EXTRATROPICA L, +, DISSIPATING STAGE& FIR!..t“,.? :,. -., .2 -. . . . ,,,, .,., .,.,.,, , ,,, , ,r(rr I 0’1 1 , z $ 0* ..n %!!.! ?~ . -4

the north semicirclewith scatteredcumulusclads.The intenseconvectionwas locatedin the southsemicirclewherethe upper-levelflowwas divergenttowardthe southwest. By 1800zm the 19th,satelliteimageryindicatedthat the upper-levelshear frc?nthe north hti decreasedand that atropicalcyclcnescale lcw-levelcirculationhadformed. The systemhad been the subjectof a TCFAfor 40-hourswhen the firstwarning was issuedat1918002. Once convecticmstartd to app2ar in thenorth semicircleand the systernshcwedsignsofcirrusoutflowtowardthe north,intensificaticnprcceecklquickly. ~ 2006002,only 1.2-hoursafterthe firstwarning,the cyclo~ hsd reachd typhccnintensity. Figure 3-05-2shws a plot of the aircraftreconnaissancemissicnflcwnat that time.Noticethe locationof the maximumsurfacewinds.In this case, the maximumsurfacewinds are locatedaPProxi~telY91Jnm (167km) from the centerof thecyclone. This large separationis a characteristicof many cyclcnesthat evolvefran strongmmsoontroughs. TyphconHal continuedintensifyingduringthe next 24-bars and develcpeda large,raggedeyeas shcwn in Figure 3-05-3. This featwe is also acharacteristicof this type of cyclcne. The satellitepicturealsoshw a ~ cell lcxatedeast of18N1716I A’. ,,. I x..;W IMwo,3wwl---~L4---L4~15141312112F.igume3-05-2. P.to.t0{ tiwuafjt hewnnai.b4ancednta{hOm 200500Zah 201000ZJune~howing the maximumAWLdaCCwind Located appfiox,imti@f 90 nm {167 km]daom Ihc cgclonecentti.fttiFwtt acphu eti the mo.x.immobbwcved &&ght Leve-?w.inh and “w” zeptebeti themtium huh~ace w.inchobbwwed.30

Hal that enhancedthe upper-leveloutflcw patterninthat direction. Figure3-05-4shcwsTyphconHal nearthe timeof its maximumintensity.Except for a few short-termvariaticms,Halnmved in a wast-northwestwardirecticmduringitsfive-daylifetimeas a tropicalstorm and typhcon.This is interpretedin post-analysisas a rmrmalscuth-of-the-subtropicalridge trackmovement.Figure3-05-5shcws tie 500 mb wind patternat201200Z,18-hoursafter the firstwarningwas issmd,but still representativeof the environmentpresentthroughoutHal’s lifetirn=.Nob tt= n=r~ s-tropicalridge mrth of Hal that extendswes-dtcwardsChina. Based cn just thispatternacdassumingthat it would persist,a forecasttrackofwest-northwestwould have been a gcxd choice.Ha?ever,XW’s primaryforecastguidance,the WKM(One-wayInteractiveTrcpicalCycloneMcdel)10N),u’ FI1OE 130E 140E 1s0E32

consistentlyindicateda mere mxthward. and even ars+mrvingn&theastward, track. Figure”3-05-6is aplot of the OICM forecasttracksstartingwith theone cm which the firstwarningwas based. J’FW2follcwedthe guidanceofferedby the CYIVM,and aa aresult,the forecasttrackswere consistentlynorthof Hal’s actual track. In post-analysisit isapparentthat O’ICMwas unable to resolvethe narrcwmid-levelridge becauseof the relativelycoarsegridsize (205km) that the mdel uses. The flew thatCIICM“saw”influencingthe movenentof Hal was thewesterliescn the norti side of the ridge. Thisresultedin the oxthward and recurvingccmponentinthe UF.2Mforecasts. This situationwill likelyariseagain in tie futureyears,and will be clcselywatchedfor by the forecastersat J’IW as a resultofthis qrience.The Philippineislandof Luzon experiencedthestrongesteffectsas the centerof TyphconHal passedjust30 nm (56 km) off the rnrthcoastand wastwardthrcughthe Luzon Straits. The deati tollwas 23~rsons with nine othersreportedaa missing. Therewas widespreadflccdingard cropdamage. Totaldamagewas estima~ at more than$10 milli.cn.Eightcrevmw?nof the US Navy frigateKirk (FF-1087) wereinjuredwhen a largewave crashedover the h. Theship was operatingin the SouthChinaSsn about 5 mn(9 km) southwsstof SubicBay. High winds caus~superficialdamage to the hull.of the destroyer0SSOldendorf(D-972) when a drifting,unnmned bargestruckthe shiu while it was moral at Subic *Y.Strongwinds tixe tie barge fran its mxuing inmid-harborshortlybeforethe incidentcccurred. ASTyphccmIrma approachedfrcm the -st, SubicSayreceivsd30 in (762 nrn)of rainfa11 during the perid26-28June as a resultof the stronglcw-levelsxwthwestmcnsocnflow that continuedover the ar~ afterHal had mcved intoChina and dissipatedas a significanttropics1 cyclone.Taiwanwas also affectedby TyphocnHal as itcausedstrongwinds and heavy rains. 11.mpecpledied, 18 injured,and five peoplelistedas missingas a resultof the typhcmn. EasternTaiwanexperiencedthe heaVleStrainfall,with almost9 inches(229mm) being reported. The heavy rainfallcausadflocdingthat was res~nsible for mcst of the death,injury,and damage.TyphocnHal made landfallapproximately75 m(139km) east-northeastof Hong Kong (~ 45005)at2405002. Maximummean hourlywind speed reportsdatthe Royal Observatorywas 22 kt (11#s) frcmthewest-northwest,with a peak gust to 49 kt (25Q#s).A gust to 50 kt (26tis) was recorde5at the HongKong InternationalAirport (WM345007). Scme minorinjurieswere rqmrtsd and the propertydamagewasslight. All @es of transpctaticmwere disruptsdon 23 and 24 June. Heavy rain on 25 and 26 June,afterlid bad moved inland,causednumerouslam3-slidesin the Hong Kong area with only a few minorinjuries.Over mainlandChina, 13 more peopledied withsane 40,000hcxnesand 321,000acres (130,000hectarea)of cropsdamaged.IME35N+30N+ / .Ar -+ +r.D+#+15N+ b_3”u“ “+19/i8zFigure3-05-6. Plot o{ the OTCM [One-WayIntcmcfittcTRop.icd?Cyc.LoneModti) ~onu.o-b~guidanceot12-houR@in.temvu4?A b.&UUkng when .tkefi,t~t (O1l?}[ itlgCJOA .&wed.33

., ,T. _no. T““/— TYPHOON* SUPER TYPHOON STARTJ , +41 O SUPER. TYPHOON END -1-l-- ;....+++ EXTRATROPICALlo_ T -7:.1● ● * DlssipATING sTAGEt.

TYPHCCNIRMA (06W)AlthoughTyphconIrmawas not one of th moreintensesystemsof the year, it becamenoteworthydueto the magnitudeof prop?rtydamageand loss of Iifeit caused in the Philippims; and later,by passingdirectlyover the Tokyo metropolitanarea. It wasthe third significanttropicalcycloneto developinJune within the nmnsccntroughand the first (inJune) to recurveinto the mid-latitudewesterlies.TyphccmIrma originatedin the easternextensionof the monsocmtroughin mid-June.It was SICW todevelcp,takingeight days to bectxnea tropicalstorm. At 00002 cn the 17th, the disturbana whichlater develcfxedinto Irma was Iccatedapproximately220 nm (407km) southwestof Ponape (PM 91348).Sync@ic data shwed a broadweak surfacecirculationwith winds of 5 to 10 kt (3 to 5 #s). Anotherdisturbamx,whichwculd shortlydevelcpinto Ty@ocnHal, was locatedti the northwestin the same trough270 nm (500km) eest-scutbeastof Yap (WM391413).A broad swface ridgenorth of both disturbancesdcaninate5the northwestPacific.when the disturbax= was initiallymentionedonthe 1706002SignificantTrcpical@clcne Advisory(ABEHPGIW), satellitetigery indi=ted that anupper-levelcold low in the tiopicalupper-trci=spherictrough (’IUIT)was presentnortheastof Guam.This up~r-level low,fiichwas positioned7 to 10degreesof latitudenorth-northwestof Irma,wascontributingto the upper-leveldiffluenceandenhancingthe convectiveactivi~ in the vicinityofthe disturbance.The potentialfor significanttropicalcyclonedevelqznentwas evaluatd as “fair”(meaningthat issuinga ‘ICFAduring the tivisorypericdwas likely). BY 09002 cm the 18th,thedisturbancehad moved west-northwestand was 150 nm(278km) south-southeastof ‘rruk(W&3291334).Satelliteimageryindicatedthe amountof convectionwas increasingarxlhad nvxe organization.Ccnsquently,a‘ICFAon the systemwas issuedat 1812002and aircraftreconnaissancerequestedfor thefollaing day.Over the next tiree days satelliteimageryshcwedvigorous,but pcorlyorganized,convection.The aircraftreconnaissanceflightm the 19th ofJune at the 1500 ft (457m) levelwas unabletolocatea circulationcenterand reporteda FS3LPof1006 mb. On the follcwingday, aircraftreconnaissancefounda surfacecirculationwith a 5 nm (9 km)diameterarea of lightand variblesurfacewinds,adrop in the HSIF’of 4 millibarsfrcxnthe previcusdayand surfacewinds of 10 to 20 kt (5 to 10 nfs). Theflw aloft over the disturbanceWS hsnperedby increasedoutflcwfmm Hal to the west. During thispericd‘ICFASwere re–issuedat 1200Zon the 19ththroughthe 21st of June. Early cm the 22nd, theconvectionwithin the disturbancebecameso suppresse5thatthe TCFA was camelled at 2205002.Unfavorableverticalshear frcmHal hindereddevelopmentof the disturbanceuntil the 24th. The241200zsyncptic data shwed increasingsouthwesterlyla-level flow enteringthe disturbance. This coincidedwith‘l’y@c@Hal makinglandfallover southernChina. Subsequentsatelliteimageryat 2416002revealeda significantincreasein the size of thecentralcloudmass. The fifth,and final,TWA onthis systemfollowedat 2417302.With Hal weakeningoverlafiin mainlandChina,Irma nui began to intensifyin earnest. The firstvarningon tie eystemwas issuedat 2501432,afterthe Dvorakintensityanalysisof the 2500002satelliteimagerysh~ the disturbame had increasedtotropicalstorm intensity. AircraftrecmnaisaanceI.a@rin the day (2505162)locateda 994 mb circulationcenterwith45 kt (23mls) maximumsurfacewinds 90 nm (167km) east-northeastof the center.The initial forecasts cd lled for Irma to follcwin Hal’s fcotstepsup the nmsocm trcwghinto theSouthChina Sea and around the subtropicalridge.Due to the uncertaintyabout the analysisover thedata sparsePhilippineSea, 400 mb syncptictrackaircraftmissionswere flcwnon 25 and 26 June tohelp define the mid-levelflow to the north of Irma.These flightsconficmsdthe presenceof lower400 mbheightsin the ridgealong 130E,which indicatedtheridgewould not steer Irma into the SCUth China Seasas it had done with Hal. JIWC ncw forecasta morenorthwardmovemsntwith eventualrecurvatureto thenortheast. This forecastscenarioprovedcorrect.Irma slowedslightlyas it approachedthe end ofthe ridge at 130E longitudeand continuedto intensify.Early cm the 27th, Irmaattaine5typlxxmintensityas verifiedby syncpticship observationsof 65 kt (33ds ) north-northeastof the centerardthe Dvorak intensityanalysis. For the next two days(Figure3-06-1)Irma roved northwardand reachedamaximumintensityof 90 kt (46m/s) with a FSLP of957 mb at 2900002.Alcq with reachingmaximumintensity,Irmaalso came under the influenceof the mid-latitudewesterlies. Within 24-hcurs,Irma was acceleratingrapidlyto the northeastheadedfor lbkyo arilthe35

KantoPlain area of Japan’sHonshu Islati. Simul-By O1O6OOZ,Irma had ccanpletedextratropicaltaneously,the systembegan waakeningand urder- transiticnand the last warningwas isswd. Thegoing extratropicaltransition.Aircraftreconnais–remainsof Irma continuedto move northeasttiardsance cm the 3Oth indicatd entrainmentof thethe Kuril Islandswhere it mergadwith a ccm@lexlcwccoler,drier air into the system. The Aerialpressurearea just south of the KamchatkaPeninsula.ReconnaissanceWeatherOfficer (~) , at 300817Z,reporteda 30 nm (56km) ellipticaleye with a slightIn sumnary,as the Typhoonpassd east of thetilt to the north-northeast.Philippineacn 28 and 29 June, heavy rainsassociatedFiglllce3-06-1. Duns, with muimum w.i.rd 04 t10 kt[4 I m/b ), ntxzzingpuk .inten.b.@ AoutlI o~ Okhwa,[(ui.the bun low in tkc wti.tthe tioud XoplZMpkg h bhik.ixg) (2W931Z JuneVWSPv~@imagwuj).36

with the strongsouth westerlymonsocnflow fran theSouthChim Sea across the islandof Luzon prcxlucedmore than 28 inches (711mn) of rain. Flccdingwaswidespreadacrossareas of 14anila and other sectionsof Luzon. At least 46 peqle perishedin theseflccds;additionally,over 1,500 lost theirhcmes.Later,when Irma made landfallcm the southeasterntip of Honshu at 301800z,maximumwindswere estimatdat 65 kt (33tis). The Naval OceanographyCcxmnarii Facilityat Yokosukareprted maximumwindsof 51 kt (26tis) with a peak gust to 83 kt (43Ws).The associatedbarographtraceis shcwnin Figure3-06-2. Variousmilitaryactivitiesat Yokosukareportedminor damageand flcoding,but m significantpersonalinjuries.Hcwever,Japanpolicereportedthreedeathsand fivepecplewere missingasa resultof Irma. ltvelvebridgeswere reportedout,flmd damagecccurredto over 20,000banes and pweroutagesaffectefiabout 440,000households.F.igtie 3-Oh-2. Btiogt.aph.Oume{nom Xhe NavalOceanoghaphgCommandFa@Xg in Yoko.&duzdocumenZ&gl!tma’ A pabbage oveh the Kanto P.&i-n.Themini.mamAea-LeveZ phtiAae neeoh.dedWLZ49b3.3 mb at3019302..37

&la. + XV13R3N3 +aMISSl 9NlNtlVM lSV1a31SSl 9NlNdVM lSWJ39V1S 9NllVdlSSlalV>ldONlVtilX3(IN3 NOOHdAl LIIldnSlUVIS NOOHdAl d3dnSNOOHdAlWtiOIS lV31dOWNOlSSlNld3a lV31dOlU33 NV9tlnlSl(l lV21dOWZOOOO/XX lV NOlllSOdA11SN31NI1N3W3AOW 40 a33dsllSOd )l>Vtil 1S39 tlnOH 90tI I-. .-.. ,... ....-. ,1.’ ‘:’ ‘L’ ‘d“e2~‘./ -y sAl”’‘t s’ ‘1 4- ~--““” ““’~-‘“’ “--“”’”8 3v’ ”’- -“:”f- ‘“.——----- . -..Ccl I .n~L “Gcll .0s1 .G91 .OP1 .’3:1 LX 1 ?~?x .021 .s11 JILL

TYPHOm JEFF (07W)Tmhcon Jeff was the lonaest-livaltrooicalcycl=” of the 1985 seascn. it requireda “titalofforty-onewarningsand was finalledby .7’17?2 cn tireeseparateoccasions. During its twelveday life -,Jeff peaked in intensitythreetimes:once =st ofthe ial.arrl of Itm Jim; once west of Okinawa,Japan;W the third time over the YellcwSea. Jeff, as itturnedout, would be tie cnly trcpicalcyckne todwelop duringJuly, a nmnth that normallyprcd~five cyclones.After ‘I’y@@nInnsbecameextratropicalcn 1July, tropi~l activityin the westernNorthPacificdecreased. One significanttropicaldisturbance&-velcpedeast of the Philippineaon 4 July and movedinto the South China Sea cm the 6th beforedissipatingeast of Hong Kong (hYY345005)on 8 July.Thisdisturbancewas tie subjectof a ‘ICFAfrcrnthe 4ththroughthe 7th. After this disturban= dissipati,the ticpicsstayedinactiveuntilTy@xm Jeff devellqeda week later.mentionedin the Prognc6ticReaacmiq Mesaages (WDPAl~) , but the officialforecastwas fm recurvature.Unfortunately,the “mere”likelyrecurvaturescenarioto the northeastdid not last long.Late on tie 23rd as the troughapproached,verticalwindshear fmn the west increasedover theSystm. It _ becameapparent&at Jeff wss weake-and the persistentcentralconvectionwasshearingaway to the -t (Figure3-07-1). The midlatitudstroughpass~to the east rn the 24th,leavingbehitiJeff‘s exposedl-level circulation.‘l’helowlevel circulationwhichwas to matureinti TyphcOnJeff, wSS spawn6din the ~SOCfl trOll#lsouth of Guam a 18 July in a bread area of disorganizecloudinessthat stretchedalong ten degreeanorth letitu3e. Clmaolidatingslcwly,the systemdriftednmthward across the islarxlof Guam andthroughthe northernMariams, bringinglittlemrethan incnaaed rainshcweractivity. Three dayaafter genesis,the develqxnentof persistentomtialconvectiaiad bettercloud organizetion prcn@2d a‘ICFA,valid at 2102OOZ. Aircraftraccn— naissanceinto t~ disturbanm a few hcma laterwas unabletmlwate a surfacecirculation,but insteadfounilabread troughwith 10 to 15 kt (5 to 8 m’s) surfacewinds and a FSLP of 1006 mb. Early the next morning,a secondaircraftrecamaissancamissim fomd atrcpicaldepressicmwith a 1002ub centralpressure.As a result,the firstwarningwas issuedat 220000Z.For the next two days Jeff continuedb intensify,reachinga peek of 60 kt (31#s) cn the 23rd.0p to thispoint, the staxing flew had remainedweak. Initially,Jeff‘s movementhad been to thenorthwest,but then changedto the northeastinrespcnaeto the approachof a mid-latitudetroughfrcanthe rkxthest. ForecastiIxjrecurvatureintothe mid-latit~ westerliesshed of the troughwasthe mcst attractivepoAbili~, especiallysince* trcpicalcyclom was alreadyat 25N latitudeand bad been steadilytrackingnortheastwardfornearly24-hours. In contrastto the persistentnorthe~terlymcwemnt, both nunericalfirecaataida(NICMand C71Ul)consistentlyindicateda north-~terly track. Becauseof the major differanoabetusenwhat was actuallyhappeningad the g~providedby the aids, the possibilityof a returnto a wsterly or northwesterlytrackwas stillconsidered. The “less”likelyalternativeforecastapenario,i.e. northwestwardmovemsnt,was repeatedlyThe residuallcw-levelvortexthen began to movewsbvard, eubeddd in the southeasternporticnof thelar- to mid-levelanticyclonewhich was centeredoverncrthernHonshu. Withoutany regeneration@ thecentralconvectioncn the 25ti or the 2gth,Jeff39

continuedto weaken. By 260600zthe maximmnsurfacewinds htd drcppedbelow 30 kt (15tis). Oespitethefact that a wsll-definedlowlevel circulationwasstillpresent,the lack of persistentcentralconvectionand the systemsrapidmovementto the wastsouthwestmade furtherdevelcgmentseem unlikely(Figure3-07-2). Aa a consequence,the finalwarningwasissuedat 260600z,with the caveatthat “the systemwill be clcselynmnitoredfor indicationsof possibleregeneration.” That was preciselywhathappen~ ! Almost immediatelyafterJeff was finalled,convectionbeganto redevelopabout the lcwlevelcentersincethe shearinginfluenceof thetroughwas absent.Throughoutthe nightof the 26thJeff regenera~d,and ~ immediatelyalertedIMena AB(WM347931)and other custcmerscn Okinawaof thechange. Weathersatellik reccrmaissan~reveal~ adramaticincreasein centralconvectionwhen warningswere again issuedon Jeff, as a 35 kt (18tis)TropicalStorm, at 270000Z (Figure3-07-3). BecauseJeff was less than 24-hoursfran affectingOkinawa,Kadem AB went to Conditionof ReadinessIII as aprecaution. AS Jeff nearedOkinmm it s1-,passingabout 75 nm south @ Okinawaat 280530Z. Thewarningsverifiedwell. MaX.im sustainedwitis atKsdenaAS were 25 kt (13u#s), with a peak gust to39 kt (20tie.)at 280208Z. Naha (WFX347930)had a~ak gust of 47 kt (24I#s) at 280355Z. Eighteenhoura afterpassingsouth of Okinawa,Jeff attainedtyphocxintensity. BY that tine, the ‘fyphm tndturnd to the west-northwestas it startedto movearctuilthe westernside of the subtropicalridge.Futkr intensificaticnto a peak of 75 kt (39II/s)crmrred as ‘I’y@cmJeff approached,and msde lam3-fallon, the coast of mainlandChina approximately180 nm (333km) south of Shanghai (WI)58367) (Figure3-07-4). Once onshore,surfacefrictionaleffectacauseda rapid decreasein maximumwirds. Thepersistentcentralconvectionbegan to fall apartand, once again,the systemwas finalled,although“movementback off the ccast and regeneraticn in theYellcwSea” remaineda distinctpossibility(Figure3-07-5).Im3eed,Jeff was rot finishedyet. Warningnumber36 was issuedat 0000Zon 1 Augustas meteorologicalsatellitereconnaisaancereportedsignificantlyincreasdconvectionover water. The trackwas H to the ncrth-northeastaround the wssternedge of the subtropicalridge. Acceleraticmwasgradualas Jeff redevel~ mxinwm surfacewinds of50 kt (26u#S) @ 1800zon 1 Atxy.st.Strongsouthwesterlywindsaloft himleredthe system!sattenpttofurtherintensifyarxlachieveverticalaligmwsmtFigwte3-07-2. The ne.mtyconvect-ion~fiee&no-.LevetcL.tcuf@tion o~ Jedd a4 Lt woA @ta.Ltedioh the I@.&Ztie [26050LZZ July NOAA v.i.mdi.n!ugtvy].FigoW2 3-07-3.Zf?ge mxa.tiondLtiV.LAu & imag~).Lt4IUtij duvnaVMSP40

etweentbe lw-level cycloneand anticyclonealoft.cated at least 180 pecplewere killed,1400 injuxedThen, at 06002on 2 AugustJeff was finalledfor theand tens of thousandslefthcmsless. In addition,thirdand last time after ccnpleti~ extratrcpical1400 watercraft, mostly fishingboats,were lostortransitionin tie northernYellowSea. badly damaged. Sane 75,000acres (30,352hectares)of cropswere destroyedand another400,0133acresIn retros~ct, easternChinabore the brunt(161,878hectares)badly damaged,by the typhoon.of TyphccmJeff. The provincesof Shanghaiand China’sirrigationnetvmrk-S severlydismptd bycoastalZhejiang ware battered. News repxta indi-flocding.FZguze3-07-4. TyphoonJedd neah maximumin.t@lb.@.tt~C~ti ,@om making.Lana@U ovn U4twVuzingthe how immed.ia.tctg pfLocedingZmL@3tl, a bmdk?banding aye iohmed[292303Z IA.@ tJOAAv.tma.tl&nagW).F.igumz3-07-5. Jqjfjovu m-rid C@uz a@a being&inafxd don the Aecondtime. Je{dApent necm-fij36houAA ove.tmo&&md China bqjolemoving back ovaopenwtiehand ae.intcti.idying (310556ZJu& NOAAvdua.timagwy).41

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TYFHCXMKIT(08W)TvohconKit was the first of seven trooicalcyclcn& to reachwarningstatusduringAu&st1985. As was the case with its predecessor,TyphoonJeff, Kit’s recurvaturepoeed considerableforecastproblems. Like many WESTPACtropicalcyclones,Kitdevel~d frcm an area of increasedconvectioninthe easternporticmof tie moneocntrcugh.As the remnantsof Ty@m_I Jeff transitedeasternChina,satelliteimageryearlyon 31 Julyshcwadthat a pcasiblecirculationwith gd convectiveorganizationwas rapidlyformingnorthof Guam.This area of disturbedmather was developingat thenortheastend of the nmnaocntrough,which at thetimewas linkedto the trailingend of an old frontalboundary. The presenceof this frontalMarymay have providsdsane initiallow-levelcyclcnicshear to accountfor the systsm’srapid formtion.Syncpticdata indicatedthat a low-levelcirculatimwas presentin the disturbd area with winds of 10 to20 kt (5 to 10 #s) and a PH.J?of 1004*. The disturbano2wasmentionedm the SignificantTropicalAdvisory (ASEHFGlV7)at 310451Z,but developmxt wasso rapidand the satellitesignaturem impressive,that a ~A was issued by 3106OOZ. No significantadditionaldevelopmentccmrred wernight, hcwever,as the systemmoved to the ~st-northwest. The firstaircraftreccmnaissancemisaim into the disturbancethe followingday foundwinds & cnly 20 kt (10rds)on the west side of a 1004nb surfacetrough. ‘Me‘ICFAwas reissuedcm the 1st aa develqxmantstillappearedlikely. Fo31cw-m aircraftreccmnaiaaancewas requestedfor the 2nd. This tintsthe investigativemissicnlccatsda30 m (56km) wide surfacecirculationcenterwith bet~r organizd winds of 10to 20 kt (5 to 10 #s) and a FS3LPof 1005mb, onemillibarhigher than m the previousday. A thirtl‘lVFAfollcwedat 0206002as the disturbarm trackedto the rmthweet. Aircraftreconnaissancewas againrsquested.‘I’henext aircraftreconna issance missionflewinto the systemlate m the 2x3, closeda cixculatimat 0222042and repcrtedthat the !SLP had decreasedto 1000A. Both aircraftand synopticdata nowindicati 25 kt (13I#s) surfacewinds near thecenter. JIW respondedby issuingthe firstWarniw’cm ‘rrcpicalDepression08w valid at 030000Z. Duringtk next 24-hcmrathe tropicaldepreasicnslowlyintensifiedwhilemoving to the northwestalcng theamkhem peripheryof a high pressureridge locatedover Japan.Tr~ical Depreasicm 08W was upgradedb Trr.picalStorm Kit at 0400002after aircraftreccanaissancereported35 kt (18tis) winds in all quadrants. Onceupgra&d, Kit continual& intensifyati move slcxvlywest-northwstwardfor the next 24 hours. Extendedforecasts,based on FNW’s NXAPS prcgnsses,imiiicatedthat Kit would mwe mrthwestward UOund tieridgewhichwas expectedto be displacedsoutheastwardin edvanceof an approachingtrough. fiis wculdresultin Kit recurvingto the northeastafter 36hours and eventually’make landfallrn Japan (Figure3-08-1). Hcwever,the troughwas weakerthan fore-st so insteadof ercdingthe ridgeand allcwingKitto recurveinto the westerlies,the troughonlytemporarilyweakened the ridge as it passed ti thenorth. Kit respondd to the troughpassagebyslcwingand turningto the north m the 5th. Ty@ocmKit ii-enmoved SIWIY northwardthroughthe 6th amlinto tie 7th while continuingto intensify. By the7th the troughhad passed to the east and the trcpicalcyclme was left in the weaknessbetween thesubtropicalridge b the east ard a weakeranticyclcneovermainlafiChina. With the passageof themid-latit~ troughover the subtropicalridge,theridgebegan to build westwardcm the 7th. Kitrespcade5by reaming a courseto the west-northwestand intensifying(Figure3-08-2). Kit attaineditsmaximumintensityof 85 kt (44tis) at 0806002southwestof Kyuahuas it moved into tieEast Chinasea. With FNX’s W2GAPSprcgs indicatinganothermid-latitudetroughapproachingfran the west,and Kit definitelynearingthe mstern eti of thesubtropicalridge axis, recurvatureover South Korea,wib extratrcpicaltransitia in the Sea of Japan,appearedlikely. After 0812002,Kit began to -akenas relativelyccolerand dri= lrxv-levelair wasentrainadinto the vortex~s southwestquadrant.Kit recurved south of the Koreanpeninsulaandwas &ely at typhoonstrengthwhen landfallccmrredcm the emthwest tip of South Koreeearly m theloth. Kit still packedquite a punch,however. !lYxrentialrainscn the islandof Cheju EUXIsoutherncastal Koreacausedextensiveprc.pertyand crcpdamage. At least ten pecpleware reportedmissingor killed. Additimally a Departint of Defensecanmunicatiomsite in the area receivd an estimated1.5 milliondollarsdamage. With extratrcpicaltEUlsitioninprcgreas,Kit rapidlylost strengthwhileacceleratingmxthaastward into the Sea of Japan.Extratropicaltransiticmwas cmpletcd and JTiW2issuedtie finalwarningcn Kit at 1100002. Subsequentwarningscnthe extratrcpicalremnantsofKit wre containedin the NA~ ~AMNorliIwe?at PacificExtratcpicalWind Warningbulletins.43

11OE+i“+ . ,“+ ++ + + +20NF-igwca3-Og-l. Compahibono~ 500mb 4$+hoti p&OgnOb& w.i-th uti~y.ing500mbanal.yhib.ThiA chantdep.ictbthe majon 500mb ijeaZw@Aavd.able &om .ttte4~-hounp&ognoAibvalid 0600002 Augub.t:ni.dgeUXLA (dabbedtie), t-toughtine [opendo.tb), 52~0 meten htigh-thop&th [ —zzflzB ), and &o fieca.4iWamling poiti (x). The vh~ying 500mb a~A& & Aho#n ~oh 0600002Augub.t:n.idgeaxi.b[Ao.Udtie), t.toughfie [Aol-i.ddofi),5’ZgOme.-tmhtightdople-th ( --MISW- ), and LlabtTnaclzpOAfiOn [Y) {ot Lit. Innelno~peat,with the 4~- houn paognobh and the lotion o~ %he {oaetitwantig pOA&n (X) - notih04 the nidge [~owaxut} and eiIA.t 06 -thetiough[{ozeuzbt)- a kecunva.tute Acenm.i.o Zookb val.i.d. The tiopical cyc-flone dan .inmw&de Zkne.d.toJapan. tioweva,with the vetidy.ingana@AiA, KLt’&poAtion [Y) nema.inb bou.th o~ the zidge (atuUlg6Zb ) and the -tnough(ana@AiA]. Thi.bi.bno~ ~avonabLeiofihecwwoluze. TM pa.t-tatnAuggebtbweakenedAtetig @x.o,wti A&w and tic ZILopicatcg&one movementwhichi.bwhat occIuLzedon the bfh.44

,45

1.. -1-. +’+”+TROPICALSTORM LEE t t tBEST Tf/ACK TC-09W11AUG-14 AUG 85MAX sFc WIND 60 KTr7++TMINIMUM 51P 980 MBSt:it+,,. . --..1 I .YI av&I , , , !TtP;L . . . ...50’.10”HONG””’”. .[# ,,, . +:::ṁ . ...:@;l,:p1A“. &TtkiAl JiMA:~’2 “’ il/cj6 1 I-’ b ;2 /% “;;:A ---- -IWO JIMA~;” ‘“r;25% .$ k!FA I‘~.” ; -~”‘@’ ‘“ &-,Ojlo, . ..+.+,...< .“= +/.’, , ,. ..’.-.”\:,::- -:,,, ‘-t...’IIfti,. . # ,.. . --.. .,., .,,. “.-.. ,.,, , t , I I I 1, I I A II {1m I , 1 i I ,. . . . .,,A:. . .✎● ☛☛✎—+e+4+● **““ r.w”.. “.-! I I.-..,. . “SPEED OF MOVEMENTINTENSITYPOSITION AT XX/OOOOZTROPICAL DISTURBANCETROPICAL DEPRESS1ONTROPICAL STORMTYPHOONSUPER TYPHOON STARTSUPER TYPHOON ENDEXTRATROPICALDISSIPATING STAGEFIRST WARNING ISSUEDLAST WARNING ISSUED-. .4--4’ ‘wI.,.160°, 1 5“. 17@,.. .SAiPAd..- . . . .- -,,, ..., ,,.’ ““” ‘“’. .0WAKE.- .,.~~ - -- ‘“- ““G$ iM” ””’- ‘“’”- ““”’- ‘“”- ““”””- ““

LEE (09W)Unlikeits predecessors,Typhoms Irma,Jeff,and Kit, that develcpedcn tie northeastperipheryofthe southwestmonsocntrcugh,Lee fonned in tktroughin the centralPhilippineSea. 3,ee’sinitialdevelqmwmt and movementwithinthe msocn trmghwas influencedby ‘I@vxn Kit,whichwas locatedfurtherto the north.On the 31st of July, the omnsrxm trough wasorientad southwest to northeast, =tending frum thecentral Philippine Sea eastward across the northernMariana Islands. To set the stage, Typlmcm Kittwhich develqed m the rmrtheastern end of thetrcaqh, roved northwesb?ard and intensified. ASKit’s low pressure area migrati mrthwestward, theaxis of the OKSISOCn trcmgh repoaitionsd along with ituntil finally, on the 8th of August the mnsccntrough was orient~ almst north to south.Ship reportsat 0812002indicateda broadcirculationin the trough480 xnn(889km) southofthe islandof Okimwa with a mininnnnsea-levelpressure (PEX2)of 1002*. Satelliteimagexyalsoshti that the convectionassociated with thisdisturbancehzd sane curvature. Stice god cutflcwcharar+lswere presentaloft lm the south and southwest,the Signifimnt TropicalWeatherAdvismry (ABFWPGIw)was reissuedat 0820002to includethis system.During the follcwfbg 24-hours,as the disturbancemoved to the mrth-northeast, the convectionremaiti m the aquatorward side of the circulatiimcenter, asscxiated with the 15-25kt (8-13tis) convergentla.+-levelwindflcw. Syncpticdata shca.@cnly 5 kt (3tis) winds on the northwestside of thecirculation.This area of lighterwimk underwentachangeon tie 10th of August. The l~level subtropicalridgebuiltback to the north of the disturbanceandacrossthe Rimkyu Islandsin tie wake ofKit and the pressuregradientincreasedcwer thenorth side of the disturbance. In response,thebroad lu#-levelcirculaticmconsolidatedwithincreasedwinds of 10-15kt (5-8tis) over thenorthwestquadrant (Figure3-09-1). Sinmlta~lyrthe upper-levelwind reportsshwed an anticyclmiccirculationwas developingover an area of cumsa—shapedconvection. The cloudinessincreasedinTlm[10N“400 120E 0 140E 1*EF.iglule 3-09-1. S@ace anc@&A aX 1000002 AugubtAhowi.ngthe hubtzopicalz_&@ wtich bui.& aCtObb -toike noti o{ the diAtu?dwce in the wake o~ .tgphoonKit. The motioondepuabbtin.iAbeginning.tocon60.Lia!de.Tht wnuagent @xo d on&j on the ~ou.thandmk ddti 06 the bhoad dmuhtion cen.tti.47

amount and was near thesurfacecenter. Theseeventsprcmptedthe issuanceof the firstTCFA at 10023OZ.The initialaircraftreamnaissancemission,at10065OZ,into tie disturbancereporteda broadsurfacecirculaticmwith dimensionsof 60 nm (111km)north to southby 90 nm (167km) east to west and a997 Mb MSLP. The naw lccaticnof the circulation~nw, as determinedby tie aircraft,requiredtheissuanceof a secondTCFA at 1008OOZ. The circulationomter was relocated115 nm (213km) furth=rtothe east-southeastand outsideof the origiml ‘ICFAarea whichwas based cn an earlierpositionderivedfranvisualsatellib data.Wing the follcwingtwenty-fcur hours,Leeturnd tcwardsthe northwest,move5 very slcwly,ardshcwedlittleintensification.This SICW intensificationcculdberelatedto the persistentstrongflaaloft fran the rnrthover the distwbance (Figure3-09-2). Satelliteimsgeryfor the same perid isshwn in Figure 3-09-3).Figume 3-09-’2.The 1000002Augtit200 mb aW&Jb~ 6hcwing-thenotihalg@to alo~.tatiohhthe d.dtumbance.--Y’!!X//Figure3-09-3. ui,th-thenotih@ @w 0J30{.thezeiA -fX.tP.e confectionon -thepo-tewtidhide 06 .thcddtwtbance’A c-izcu.ld-ion cen.tti.The tioutitiApwhti ova the &xu--LevetAoutkweAXW@ @WJ(100IO~ZAugu&tUMSF’vtiualimag~).48

An aircraftreccrmaisaanceflightinto thedisturbmre at 110656Zfcund a 25 nm (46km) diameterlightard variablewiti centerwith only 15 kt (8tis) maximnnsurfacewiti aroundit. Hwever, the&SLP hzd drcppd another5 nb during the previoustwenty-fcurhours to 992 rb. This sugportedmaximumwilldSof 40-45 kt (21-23tiS) baS5d on theAtkinsm/Hollidaywiflpressure relationship.Aircraft,ayncpticati satelli~ data indicatedthatstromysrwinds d 25-35kt (15-18tis) were locatedin a band displaced60-180nm (111-333km) to theeast of the center. !l%esedata led to the issuanceof the firstwarningat 1106OOZ. AS a result,Kadena.AB,Japan (WM347931)immxluately set a ConditionofReadinessIII.Fortunately,Lee continuedb exhibittypicalcharacteristicsof a IXSISCMXI depressionwhere themxinmansurfacewixxlsand intenseconvecticmneverconaolida~ at the surfacecenter. Instead,themaxinm surfacewida remind in the easternsemicircle.A,?a consequence,when Lee passedwithin 15mn (28km) northeastof Okimwa at 120430z,themaximumsu.k.tained winds stayedwell to the east ofthe island. In fact, the strongestwinds experienceat KadenaAS we fran the west-southwestat 22kt (11u#s) with 32 kt (16n#s)approximatelytwelvehours later. Naha (VU4347936)lccatsdcn an elevatedSIW3exFossdpart af the islandof Okimwa reportedhighestwinds (inassociationwith the southwestnmsonn flow)of 27 kt (14I#s) with gusts to 40 kt(21mfs) at 121948z. At that tim Lee was 170 nn(315km) to the nm-th-northwestof the staticm.Overall,L&’s track aml asymmetricalwind distributionsparedOkinawa,buttie westernccast K SouthKora appearedto be the next targetand preparationshad begun for the tropicalcyclcme’sapprcach.on the synopticscale,lwer standardpressurelevelheightsprevailedoverthe East China Seabetwem the ~ ridges. AS the mid-latit~ trough(Figure3-09-4) approachedthe YellcwSea m the 13thof August,it came into phase with the shortwavetroughexteding south-southwestwardfran a deepeningSiberian 3DW near 52N 116E. By 1.31200zthe troughwas orientedalong 118E longitudeand the ridge overJapan continuedto build northwardacrossthe Seas ofJapan and Okhotsk. This causedthe mid-levelsteeringflcw fran the south to increaseover Lee.In reapcnse,~ steadilyaccelerate acrossthe EastChina Sea and passed 240 m (444km) wst of theislandof Kyuahu,Japan. Coastalstatio= on Kyushureported10-25 kt (5-13#s) sustainedwinds.Aircraftreccmnaissancereportedthe band of 40-60 kt(21-31dS) maximm winds remainedabout 120 rnn(222km) west of the Ccast.AS & began to break free of the nwxxxxntrough,it reachedit’s peak intensityof 60 ktFi.guht3-09-4. The 12J200Z Augu&t500 mb anufijh.dWith tioughi.ngin the ~uba%opicd tige. OVWL theEa&t China Wa.49

(31tis) (Figure3-09-5). Satelliteimsgeryshowedorientationof the su~rtixxj convection-w;changing,too. The strongupp5r-levelwsterlies werealreadypxs.hing~‘s outfI.cwto the mrtheasttids tk? southwestccdst of South Ko=d.Lee continued to accelerate and followed anortherly trackacross the YellcwSea on 14 Atqnlst,stayingapproximakly 120 nm (222km) offshore. Thissparedthe coastlinefran any significantdamage. Afew reportsof 35 kt (18n#s) sustainedwindswererecorckdat the southwestporticnof the Koreanpeninsula. Iater,Lee tiansitedthe North Koreancosstline60 run(111km) southeastof Sinuiju (W54498)at 1406002,and dissipa&d rapidlyinlandoverthe nmuntainoueterrain. NO reportsof damage!Rreavailable.influenceof the same syncpticscelepatternduringthe first threeweeks of Awyst witi ridgingoverJapan and troughingover rrxtheeatmainlandChina.This patternmaintainedseni-persistentsouth-tonorthmid-levelsteeringflowover the YellowSea.Each tropicalsystemin its cm time recurvedarourdthe westernperipheryof the subtropicalridgeandaceelera@d. Figures3-09-6and 3-09-7shcw theapproximatelocationsnd orientationof the syn@.icscale troughwiti respectto the pint of recurvatureof esch tropicalsystem. The patternshiftedeastwardfran Jeff to Kit, then retrograkd westwardwith M, and later,Mamie’strack. fie @rite ofrecurvaturealso indicatetk westernextentof thasubtropicalridge in each case plus the mnthwarddisplacementof the ridge axis whi~ was well northof its climatologicalpcsition.Of note, the tracksof Jeff, Kit, Lee, andlater,Msmie in the Yellw S= came under theF.igtie3-09-5. Tkophd S.tonmLee al ti maximum.iwkn.4i.tg o~ 60 kt (31m/A]. The uppu-~ev~an?%gclon.ic c&a&&i,oK tipticed bfig~ to thenoz2heaAzo~ the expob ed tau-~evat A-on centQJL(13051gZ Augwt NOAA V&d i.niag@f) .50

6GN+ + + +750+L

’1‘L-G??-A. s?-wl.lI f ,-7 1--1 , J, I I t I ,, 1I“P.LL.1

TYPHCONMAMIE (1OW)Despite reaching a maximum intensity of only70 kt (36tis), Ty@cgn Maoiewas cne of the moredestructive tropical cyclones of the 1985 westernNorth Pacific season. Following a path similarto its predecessor, Trc@cal Storm Lee, Mamie wasresponsible for at least 35 deathsand causedheavydamage to crops,hcanes,and shippitq. For twudays, Mamie skirteda 400 nm (740km) stretchofths easternChinesecoast frcnnShanghai(M 58367)to the ShantungPeninsula,inundatingfarmlatiandwashingaway mmy dikes and dams witi its torrentialrains. I@re than 800,000civiliansand soldiersweremsbilizedto canbatthe flccdingard repairdamage.Estimatesof the destructioncausedby Mamiewerestaggering:over 6.5 millicntreesuprooted,2.9 millionmetrictons of high stalk farm crcparuined,more than 120,000housesdestroyedor damged, wer200 watercraftof varioustypessunk or drivenaground,and over 122,000dcmesticlivestockdrcwmed.Namie formedfran an area of convectionthatwasoriginaly part of the southwestmomsncmflcw intoTrcpicalStorm Lee. At 01292on 14 August,visualsatelliteimageryitiicatedslightcurvaturein anarea of convectiondue east of Taiwan thathad se~aratedfran Leeis inflcw. Figure3-10-1shws thisarea and its relationshipto Lee. Subsequently,thearsa was includd as a “pcrm”m the 1406002SignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory(ABPWFGIW). Satelliteimagerythroughthe remainderof the 14th showedthe disturbancewas turningto the north and becaningmore organizedas the separationfran Lee’switifield increased. The 1506002ABPtiFG1’Wbulletinreflectsdthisdevelcpnentby upgrading the potentialfor develcgmentto “fair”and aircraftreccnnaissanceof the disturbanoswas requestsdfor the follcxvingmorning.At 1512002,a TU?A was issued,based cm increasedcwvatureof the convectivetands and anticycloniccirrusoutflowindicatedbysatelliteima9ery. At this point, the area was beginningtointensifymre rapidlythanbefore,due partlytoLee’s waninginfluencecn the new circulation.At1523402,aircraftreconnaissanceclcsed-offa circulationoftropicalstorm intensity90 nm (167Ion)duewest of Okinawa,prarptirigthe issuanceof the firstwarningon Mam.ieat 1600002. Less than thraehourslaterKadenaA13on Okinawareprted its strcngestwinds frcm Mamie - south at 20 kt (10u#s) with apeak gust to 35 kt (18tis).Hamie acceleratedto 20 kt (37whr) and ~akenedto a 40 kt (21ois) trcpicalstorm justprior tocrossingthe YellowSea and moving towardDairen,China (W 54662). Afterinking landfalljustwestof Dairenat 1912002,Mamiebegan to dissipateoverland. BecauseMamie’sintensitydecreassdto anestimted 25 kt (13#s) and due to its I.ocaticnover the mountainsof northeastChina, the lastwarnimawas issuedat 2000002.F@LAe 3-1o-1. The .fxopicat titibance that becmeTqphoon Mamie & .bcd& w~ 04 ~he ih.fand o~Taiwan. The b&gh.t&j tived wnvetive band and4qWuMX.on {hem the ctoud.inti~ tibotied wilhTt.opkco2stomn Lee .tothe notih wate the @.d Aiod okganirtin {1401292AuguA.ZUMSP viAwa.t.inageOn 16 August Mamie bagan to turn to the northwest.This turn was due to the l~level ridge northof Mamie strengtheningslightlyas the mid-latitudetroughbat had interactedwith the remnantsofTropicalStormLee hsgan to move rapidlyto the eastin the mid-latitudewsterlies. Hcxvever,the ridgeneverbecame strongenough to step Mamie frcm haadingmxth-northwest,then nxth througha waak area inthe ridge that persist~ throughoutNamie’slifetime.Mamie mntinued b intensify,reachingtyphconintensityat about 170000zas it moved northwestat 7 kt(13kmhr) tcwardShqhai (WP1258367).The Typhom reacheda peak intensityof 70 kt(36tis) 12-hourslater at 1712002,just prior toaffectingthe Chinesecoast near Shanghai (Figure3-10-2). Mamie traversedthe Chineseccastline,hittingTsingtao,withdecreasedwinds of 5(Ikt (26D#S)at about 1902002. Mamie then turnednxth aroundthe westernperipheryof the subtropicalridgeaticrossd the Shantungpeninsula,strikingYantai,China (nearFushani$!9154764)at about 1906002.Figuze3-10-2. Mam-iewith @phoon do.tcewinhpUAAingjuAt eaA.to{ Shanghai,China (1.$01492AugustVMSP W&la& i.magenlf) .53

,.. . ...t;,:: t:::,-‘1.,.‘: :,,-,. . . . . .- .,. . .- -.. .. ..- -.. . . . . .. . . . . .- -.. . .- -.. .. -., . .- -.. .- -,. ..1.. ... ,.. J.. -1-. t~~~~‘+ , 1 1 t , t. . . ... ... ..1 . . . .1../---,..,-,,,,/--~ . ,,/---,2‘~W-& t“”,.p.,..m ,.. ,%, , F3y ,,, , +---. . .,@ .8 .-Qw- “-Hi.T.- . . . . --.sHAN dA!o ,,. . . .--.. .*, ,# H30T.,, .,. . ..;lk2410@ .--. . . ~. \.,. , .,~. ., !.4-5*.“1!.,.-— / ,.,/8 w, y 1 ~ /v,, ,+“”~.:1--’j.~lf 7-1? ’’’1 ’’80’/ , 1,,,..‘L-f,. . . . .LEGEND\,0... . . . W 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSIT ;.-IA +1. . . . . . . .PALAU IS 8,.. . . . .,.. .. . . . . . . . .5“4,.. . . .-1 1’! , I, TJ’/Jf:L;LW;Nk 1BEST TRACK TC - 11W17 AUG -24 AUG 1985MAX SFC WIND 95 KT . .MINIMUM SLP 961 MBS,.,.- -.. .,I I , 1.,m ‘“’” “’”’ ““”’ ‘“lIst. I,, 4 1 , 1 , B IA SPEED OF MOVEMENT 1,, ,,1-!:INTENSITYPOSITION AT XX/OODOZTROPICAL DISTURBANCE..0TROPICAL DEPRESSION● *.TROPICAL STORMTYPHOON m::: ::;: :;::; :;:;’:~:! ,.,::;:: :;:;:LITHIQYAP, -‘., .. T’. ,- -“.. .-“. ,. .- -..dv.fi,.. . .,,, . . ..aWOL Efl - -’”” TRUK,.. . -.. . . .. . . . . . . , . . .. . . ,. . . . .. . .,.. - -,, . , --..”.6 ff-,..,.. -,...,.4PON’fPE—.LL1

TYPHOcN NELSON (llW)TyphconNelsonwas the fourthof seven trcpicalcyclcnesthat develcpedover the NorthwestPacificinAucyst. It causedsubstantialdamageancl1- oflife as it passed tiroughthe southernRyukyuIslands,brushed by northernTaiwanand crcssedintomainlandChina.~ 14 AugustTrcpicalStormLee =5 dissipat@as it nmxxl acrc6sNerth Koreaand TyphocnManicwasbuildingnear the southernRYUkyUIslandsjust eastof Taiwan. The follcwingday the disturhrm thatdevelcpedinto Ty@ocn Nelsenwas firstnoticedas asmal1, but persistent,area of pcorlyorgan.imiconvecticm150mn (278km) east-northeastof the islandof Seipanin the Msrisnas. The ar- was locatedinthe near-equatorialtroughwhere the convectivecloudinesswas enhancsrlty the divergentqqxx-levelflew associai=dwith an uppercold low in M tropicalUpper-tropospherictrough (’IVIT) . Syncpticdataat 1500002irdicatedthat sou-terly gradientlevelflow fran the PhilippineS= was near thedisturbance. These factors,plus - satelliteinsqeryat 150300zwhich showeda slightcyclcm.iccurvaturein the convection,prcqted menticnof thearea cn the 1.506002SignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory (ABPWPGrw).curingthe next 24-fcmrhours,satelliteimageryrevealeda marked increasein th amcuntof conveetion over the northeasternportionof the disturbancewith anotherlargerarea of Unorganizedconvecticmnuving towardIhe disturbancefran the west-scutbwest.~ 1600002,synopticda= indicatedthat thesoutweaterlygradientflowhad propagatedeastwardtothe disturbsna?SIX3an asacciatd upper-levelanticyclcnehsdformedover the disturbance.A TrcpicalCyclcmeFormstionAlert (’ICFA)followedat 1606252.Aircraftreccmmissance late cm & sixteenthwas unable tm locatea smf am circulation.~ever, the aircraftreconnaissanceweatherofficer(B) did report:a narrcwl-level trcugh that was200 m (370 km) in extent and elaxjated mrtheastsouthweat;threepcssible 1002 mb pressure centers;and meximum winds of 10-20 kt (5-lo tis) to the northof the trough. The TU?A was reissued at 1705552.A dramtic increase in both & cyclcnicculxature and amount of central convection cccurredat 1716002. The Dvorak intensity estimate of thesystem was 35 kt (18 tis) . tis intensity estba~together with the continuingdevelqanentof the systemled to the firstwarningon Nelscmat 1718002.Aircraftreconnaissanceat 1721312confirmedthisdevelcpmnt, and mxe, when gale force surfacewindswere lccatednorth of a 989 nb low pressure=nter.Specifically,the flightrevealedthe 700 * centerwas displaced31 rnn(57km) to the rzxthwestof thesurfacecenterarr3a bati of 45 kt (23I#s) lcxvlevelwirdswas located90 nm (167km) to tie ruxth-IlOrthwst.Due to the mcertdnty in the Fleet NtanericalOceanographyCenter (FtKx2)mid-levelwind fieldsinthe dab sparseregicmsouth of Japan,a 400 ubm@c track*sire was flwn early cn the 18tito betbr define the mid-levelsteeringfla north ofNelscrl.tlatifran this flightconfirmedthat theridgeext~ed westwardover welscmand indicatedforecastsfor an ‘umiertkE ridge”scenariotereappropriate.This forecastsoenmio proved b becorrect.Purtherintensificetioncccur~d as weleonassuneda more west-northwesterlytrack. At 1900002,Welscnwas qxyaded to a typhom after aircraftreccnnaissameindicatedthe system hal a 5 run(9 I@diameterIightivariablewind oenterwith a 979 mbWJ.P and 65 kt (33ll#S)maxinnmsurfacewindsdispla- 40-120nm (74-220km) northwst of thecenter. Alncat threedaya later,at 2118002,Nelsenreacheda peak intensityof 95 kt (49tis) with aPSLP of 961 !n?Y(seeFigure 3-11-1)..55

.120” 125” 13(Y 135° 14cf 145” 150’ 155” 1G@ 165” 170” 175°—TYPHOONODESSABEST TRACK TC-12W23 AUG -01 SEP 85MAX SFC WIND 90 KT -MINIMUM SLP 957 MBS... . . . . . ..LEGENDW 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSITA SPEED OF MOVEMENTB INTENSITYC POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ. . . TROPICAL DISTURBANCEs ● = TROPICAL DEPRESSION-- TROPICAL STORM— TYPHOON+ SUPER TYPHOON STARTO SUPER TYPHOON END+++ EXTRATROPICAL● ● ● DI$$IpATING STAGEA FIRST WARNING ISSUED tA LAST WARNING ISSUED“’’l’’’!’’”+,,,.,.m0318:,,~17”.,.. -1-. . . +’. .+-t-t-t-+--t-~_ SPEZO IN’CSNS1T223062 2562312z 3062318z 356Zmoz 4062406z 45t+-.‘+”’ ””+”A$RO”.,,’

TYPHOONCDESSA (12W)~essa persistedfor almosttwo weeks andrequireda totalof thirty-eightwarnings- in thisregard,only TyphoonJeff with forty-oneexceedad~essa ts totalduring1985 season. ‘Ihesyst~ ~~part of a multipletropicalcycloneoutbreakalongwith TyphoonPat and TropicalStormRuby. At onetime five tropicalcycloneswere in warningstatus.Ultimately,C!dessautierwenta complexbinary interactionwithTyphoonPat southof Japanbeforecompletingextratropicaltransitionoverthe Sea ofJapan.~ the thirdweek of August,Typhccnhlelscmhadmovd westwardacrossthe northernPhilippineSea.At that tire, the easternend of the mcnsocntroughexterdd acrcasthe PhilippineSea to the vicinityofGuam. The easternend of the low latitudewesterlymonscmnalflw, where it interactedwith the easterlytradewimis,becamethe preferredlccaticnfor maximumcloudiness. Initially,on 19 August,the deep convectioninthis area appearedrandanwith little,orno, curvature,but ita persistencewas sufficientreasonfor its inclusioncn the SignificantTrcpicalweatherAdvisory (ABPWPGIW). With maximumswfacewinds in tie nmnaocnalflcn+of 15 to 20 kt (8 to10 nfs) and a minimumsurfacepressureof 1006ub,the potentialfor develcqmmt was ratedas pax.This potentialfor intensificatiachangd tafair at 2206002as the convectivemass began toincreasein size over a low-levelcirculaticmwhichbegan to separatefran the surroundingcloudiness.A TWA follcwedat 2302302based on meteorokgicalsatelliteimagerywhich ehwed a Centrall)enaeOvercast (CIX3).Aircraftreccnmissan= wasscheduledfor the next dsy. me persistent~, afavorableoutflcwchannelaloft to the scuth,and apre-existinglm-level circulationcenter,prc.mptedthe firstwarningfor TrcpicalDepression12w a shorttime laterat 2306002. The lkpresai~ was upgrad~at 2400002when aircraftreconnaissancecbservedsustainedsurface winds of 30 kt (15ds) thatweregustingto 55 kt (28II#s)southeastof the centertheM(XP was estimatedto be 1000h (Postanalysesreveal~ that Odessareachsdtropics1 storm intensityshortlybefore 231800Z). The aircrafta~o discoveredthatthe low-levelcenterhad driftedscmtheaatwardduringthe night,when interpretitiaofinfraredsatelliteimagerywas restrictd to pc6itioningthepoorlydefinedwFer-level circu~ti~center.F.igww3-12-1. N.igk.ttimeimagatgo{ Odti~a w.ilhab.ingikout@w than.wtthat iA dimeticdequa.tom~(241227Z Augu6X W i.ndmd a9QJY) .Erraticnovementbecams less of a concernascdeasamaturedand assumeda north-northwestlytrack.ticraf t reconnaissa- at 2423402reprted typhomP~,.:-%t?,,ODESSA,. .’--- \ #___F-&ICt 3-12-2. OdeAAa w.&h channti-tu ok nothan.ne.?out@w[2g1024Z Aug~t NOAA ~6WUUfimageh.q].59

+6” I+ tf +4“- -3“- -2“- -looO-+30f--312“- -PAT 20$- - 27 MIDPOINT ❑ETWEENH00ESS& AND PAT- 4= - ODESSA1 ,‘9”8-7”6”5”4”?2” l“00102a 304.5060 ~@&IFiame 3-12-5. The Aim@.@ VOhtt d f C] W)Uk&16& Zhe mi.dpo&t6tiken”&com ha (Al zo (%] in -thephevioti F.i.gtie3-12-4. The pObi-tiO)16 Od boa% Patand 0de6~a hetu..tiveto the mi.doo.in.t fceUect theAs the trcpicalcyclme pressedahti cm ita newtrack,it began to mlerate “inreaptiiaeto theapproachof Typhom pat frcm the amth. me cctwlexinteracticm between tk spatiallyproximatec@mes,or binarys,is mt readilyapparentfrm Figure3-12-4,which depictstbe auperinpcsd tracks. Ifthe midpointis determinedfor each six hourlytimeparicd,the locus of midpoinb fran A to B results(seeFigure 3-12-4). WheiithiS kcua beCUoeS aSiqUbZ pcirit (C)in Figure 3-12-5ad the re~tive positionaof the two ty@oms are replottirelative‘to(C),the subtleattractim and cyclonicroteticninto a circleof 33o m (611km) becmasapparent. It ia interestingto ccqare the relativesises of Pat, which is average,and Odessa,which issmall and cqmct (referanm the surfaceisobaricanalysisin Figure 3-12-6). wturning to Figure3-12-5,it is “Mqxmtant (next)to noe the departureof kdh t@cana fran tbe 330 nm (611km) circleat31OOOOZ. This was the beginningof extratrcpicaltnna.itirmend separation. Satelliteimageryisprwided in Figure 3-12-7.Figwte 3-12-6. Uobazic cUU@bi6 ~Oh 3000002 AugwA.ti,ndicdti the ALze d.iddwence b@oeen P& and thebti compact Odua. Tht waku @AOm to thenohtk?df -d Thopiti %OZM ??u@4, WkiCh h2ma-itdbo.Li,@ujand appahent.tyU’X enZs4 &to theLntaztin.----61

‘l’hemvemnt of Cdessstier the ridgehadservedthe prognosticreasoningwell sti the 27A.The fors.castremainedconservativeand &ld topersistenceas Odessabegan to displayerratictehavior,but the ridge to the northhad changed.Both aids, ~ and NICM, indicatsdnorth to northeasterlyutcv~nt(seeFigure3-12-8). men PatStartedZcelerat@ northeastwardacrms Japan,Odessaexecutsdan abruptturn to the nxtheastand follcnreda its heels. Forecastsfor Odessa’sforwardnmtionproved too SIW as it accderated intothe SESIof Japan and began extratropicaltransition.Fortunatelythe systemwas cmpact emd weakenirgordamagemight have been mora widespread. In Kyushuend other southernislandsof Japan strongrains andwinds frcxn03essakncckedout x ati CSUS4fishingvesselsto capsize. Ships remainedin portat SaSebo,Japan (W@ 47812)as Odessapassedsixtymiles to the north. fie finalwarningwas issuedat011200ZSeptenberas the extratropicalrsmins ofOdessaapproachednorthernHonshu.Fi.g& 3-12-7. In .tUA moon.Qh.tphoto Pa-t’Azaggedqfe and .&wgehwtzoundingcloudmtib dwahj odtiba,which d a&o at tgphoonin&n.6&g [30134$Z AugubtVA(SPvi.wz.limagwy).62

46444g- 72 HR4240m,,,,,,,. OTC M,44--- NTCM 4“—BEST TRACK /,438HR3634323028NE 146I128 lbI132 lb 136 l!MEFig@e 3-lZ-g. P- ti, NTCM and OTCM, at3012002 Augti.ffie~Letia nom-thto notihute@.i%ack.Tha bat tick pobtinb IAoti tie]indicate -thegtince WA bti&W.g coz.zect.63

15“ 110 115” 120° 125° 130° 135” 140° 145° 150° 155” 160” 165°–-—.— .-2-”-T ,.-,.-...,,, ,,. ,., ,/ ““T * m/12z -‘“ “-BEST TRACK TC-13W27 AUG-01 SEP 1985 J“‘MAX SFC WIND 95 KT:. :. .+l&+–---t-.. -.. . . . . -.. .. . . -.. . 23- -- -. ‘--.. ---- . . .-.. . -95 --,”””” --” ‘- “-’” ‘-””#,.. ---- ---- ., . . -----,,.-95 -_,, ,, -.. .“ -- -- --,+.,-“55”- ““’”- ‘“’ ‘-”””.,.45B --“ ~“”””.,. .. . .-., ,,. ...

TYPiiCX3W PAT (13W)Typhcon Pat develcpedeast of Taiwanin thenmnsocntrougha few days afterTyphconOdessaandcme day beforeTropicalStorm Rtby. Pat was significantdueto the ccmplexforecastingproblemsitcaussdand the damage it inflictedin Japan. Thepresenceof two other storms (c15essaand RubY)presentda varietyof poisibleforecastinteractims.The movementof each cyclcmekd to be consid~ed inCc4nbination with the changingsyncpticpattern.The monscon trough remained guite active thelast two waeks of Atxjust.The disturbam= whicheventually evolvad into Pat, origimted in the wakeof Typhcon lielsm as it moved into eastern China.The 2419002SignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory(ABPWR21’w)first identifid this disturbanceas anarea of enhancedconvectionin the nmnsoontrough.The convergencein the southwestmonaoa flewccnbice.dwith upper-leveldivergenceprwided anenviromcentfavorablefor cvntinud develcpnent.The firstTrcpicalCyclcneFormationAlert(!IC!FA) was issued at 2515302when synopticdataindicatedthe minimumsea-levelpressure (lSLP)ha drcppd to 1002mb and winds of 25 kt (13R#s)here present. An aircraftreconnaissancemissionflcw to investigab the regicmcn the 26th. Althoughit was unableto I.cxsate a circulation,the fiatacellectadindicatedthedisturban= was developing- “theMSLP had fallento 999 mb and 40 kt (21I#s) windswere observedcn the soutiside of the mmaocmtrough. As a result,the ‘ICFAwas renewedat2615302. Figure3-13-1shws the activemonsomtroughat &is time. The disturbanceis visiblecm the westernside of the imagerywith ~hocmCdessa furtherto the east.Aircraftrecmnaissanceearly cn the 27thlocatedthe circulationcenter,pranptingissua~of the firstwarning,valid at 2700002. By this tim,Figtie3-/3-1. Tht tILopicM di.btibance which becameTgphoonPa-tb v.di.b.te u.4an ohgo.nizedUAea 04convection.& the monboont.tough.(TgphoonOdti~acan &o be ~eenl (2613z~Z Aw?~~ ou~ ~6JUVCCZCJimagezg).65

Pat, due to the enhancedsouthwesterlynwnsconflew,alxeadywas at tropicalstorm intensi@. - nxmtionedearlier,alargenunberof clifferent factorsneedd to be taken into accountin PatIs forecast.Determining the directicnof the trackkmthe firstprcblem. Becausethe cyclonewas pcorlydefinedm satelliteimageryand as a consequenceclifficult to position,pat was believedto be movingwest-ncrthwestfor the first two warnings,whenit was actuallynmvingeast-northeast.This wascriticalsincepersistencefrcm pest nmvementisoften a major forecastcmsideration,especiallyinthe short term forecasts. Figures3-13-2ad 3-13-3shcw sane of the data availableto the forecasters.A streamlineanalysisof the 2700002August 500 nbdab has been ccn@eted in Figure3-13-2to shcw thelccaticmof the subtropicalridgenorth of Pat.Figure 3-13-3depictsthe firstset of forecastaids,using the east-northeastpersistencetrackas abasis,alongwith the forecastand best track. l%enmst strikingfeatureis, that despitea lot ofdifferentoptionsprovidedby the aids,none reallyhit the mark at seventy-twohours.hitthe mark at seventy-tvmhours.The forecastcalled for Pat to move along thennnaccm trough to the eest-northeast; separatefranthe trcugh,and turn back to the west—northwstum36x the subtropical ridge. l%is w9sin reasmableagreemsntwith the Cn-y InteractiveTropicalCyclcmeFKx3el(CYIt21) ucdel which is usuallythebest performingforecastaid. The FleetNmmerical@eancqraphy Center (=) 72-hcur500 * NavyOperetionalGlcbalAtnwpheric PredictionSystem(NCGAPS)prcgnosiscalledfor & ridge to weakenas a trcughnmved eastwardacrossm~olia. Itappearsd,tier, that the ridgemuld remainstrcagencughto P=ep Pat south and west of Japan. ~ itturredout, the prcgmais was slew on the movemntof the trough,which resultedin the ridge wsakeningover westernJapan.For be rest of the 27th and all of * 28th,Pat remind in the mmeom troughand continueddriftingto the mrtheast. me forecastsituaticnwas furthercomplicatedby the presenceof TyphculFigtie 3-13-2. ki.id-tiopo~phtic (500 mbl Wind {Zuoat 2700002 kguh.t. Tkc dominant Aynopticdea.tumedthe Aub-tzopicalmidge Sx.tendingatiobh China andJapan to Zhe notih o{ Pat.3-129281726252423n21Jcow20NI E I 1 m B I I d1E12312412E 124 E271LU91 131 132 133 134E2066

westwardat this stagedue to binary interactionwithPat rather than fran a response to the ridge. Visualsatellite imagery early aY the 30th (Figure3-13-5)shcws the two wre spatially proximate. It isreasonableto believethat if Pat had been the calytrcpicalcyclcnein the regionat this time,theforecastprcbablywould have been changedcn the 29thrather than m the 30th;providingJapan an ~ditional24hours of warningtime.With the zx5ditional data received cm the 30th,it kcame evidentthat Pat was not respondingto thesteeringflew of the ridgeand was going to hit theJapaneseislandof Kyushu. The 3012002forecastwasthe first to reflectthischange. Figure3-13-6shins the 500 mb dati availableat that time. mencunpari~ it with Figure3-13-2,it is evidentthatmajor synopticchangestcokplace in sevemty-tvmhours. The anticycloneover tie China coastwas goneand a troughwas lccatedjust northwestof the KoreanPeninsula.m in-depthlook at the interaction betheen Patand Odessa, revealed the two typkors rotateii cyclonicallyaround each other. ‘The af fact CXI@es*’strack was greater, however,sincePat was the largersystem. (Measa kept movi.rqwestward,aidedby interactionwithPat. It was inter~ting to note thatPatdid not turn to the north ti ax4eraW untilOdesaar-ted acrcas to the narth-mrtbwest. Thenrasaocxlaa Pat was east-northeast of odeaaa, @essa turmd tothe northeast and both cyclones a=elerated into theSea of Japan. The cl=t point of a~roach betweentbetwwaa270Enn (5001an).At thatpoint, the forecastwas straightforwardwith extratrcpicaltransitiontakingplace in the Seaof J-. Figure3-13-7shcwa Pat duringits transitionwithstablestratcxmnnulus cloudspresentarounda largecpen centerand convectionlimitedto tk northeastquadrant. Pat Canpletd extraticpicaltransiticmata~roximately 3121OOZ. Thewarningscontinua warningcn the systemuntil itroved acrcastie islandof Hokkaidoin nm?cheasternJapan. The finalwarningwas iasud at 0112002.~ pat causedsignificantdamagein southwesternandnortkstern Japan;primarilycn theislandsa Kyushuand Hokkaido. Kyushuwas hit thehardestwiti wind gusts of 107 kt (55II/s}reportedat 3019402in Kagc6hima(WM347851). MisawaAB(WM347580)recordedsustainedwinds of 33 kt (17I#s)with a peak gust @ 52 kt (27II#s)at O1O71OZwhenextratrcpicalremnants of Pat creasedthe northernJapaneseislan3s. A total of 23 pecplewsre reportedkilledwith over 180 peopleinjured. llnestimtsd3,000banes wsre damagedarid148 watercraft of=rying sizea lat. Pat also severelydisrupted~ansportatim by lard,sea and air.Figu)w 3-13-5. Typhoon Pal moving noma%wmd hwazdAKLJubhuand -GUwuzc.tingwith Typhoon Odabba. PaX dIke .tiazgctOff the .tlUO typhooti13005382AugtiC NOAAV.dllatinklga.g).68

Figute 3-13-6. M.id-.tzopohphtic (500 mb) wind &20wa-t3000002 Aug@t bWent@Wo hom a{.tetF-iguae3-/3-2. The aticgtione ovez Zhe coaA-tad Cki.nabgone and a Zzough.i.Amovinginto the Aegion @om .tItenotihwe4X.Figtie 3-13-7. Pat hab nutlg compLtied Lt4Ymtin to an @JuIXAopi4 .tOUIin the Sea 06The convetin A moving .tothe nonthmtleauhg behind a bnoad, L?XpOb& k%w-levet ticu.tdioncentti (311813Z Augu6.tNOAA in&@M?cI imagemj).69

125” 130 135” 140” 145” 150” 155° 160” 165” 170” 175° 180°,, ,.. .40-“’”’ >~’~:-~--~~{ 45-~. . 1..4++’”+ ““”+ ’””’ t”’’ ”t ””. t + L ,.. .,, . 1I 1 1 t 1 I t 1 ,I t 1 , , I A 1 I t I I t 11 I I 1 1 I1!3 1 I , ,1SA1’PAd.,.- -.. . . ... ... ‘“ “~“”- -“””’- -“””- -“”””; ‘: ;;,- -,, ,, ,,, - -,, ,,- -,, ,,- -,, ,,. -, . . .. ,.,4;6 - -- ““- -’””:Gu--M”””- ‘“’””- ‘“””- ‘“”~””- ““- ““””- ‘“””””.*.15

TROPICALSTOW PUBY (14W)Ruby was the last of three disturbam todevelcp in the active southwest umaocn trough mar20N latitude during lateAugust. Unlikeits’predecessors,?yphocns03essaand Pat, Ruby did cotengage in any ccnplexbinary interaction, butappe==d to rem in a solitarysysten. Ruby wsnoteworthy in that it trackd directly over the ~kyometropolitan area.On 24 August the well-develo@ monscontroughwas displacednorth of its climatolcgicalpsiticmaml providedlargescale low-levelconvergi~ flcw.This flowwas the ccnbinatim of the southwestmmsoonand the southeasttradeaaround the routhwestperipheryof the strongsubtropicalridgelocatsdeast of Japan. The lo+level mmexxm trcmghFad anarrwr but active,trqical ~r-tr~spherictrough (~) locatedaloftand to the mnth, and theupper-levelnear-equatorialridge to the south.~qtlc data on tie 25th of Augustrevealedasmall (60nm (111km) diameter)circulationwith aminimumsea levelpressure (~) of 1006nb 330 nm(611km) south-southeastof the islandof okinawa.Initialmnticm of this area appearedcm the 2506002SignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory(ABFWIK31W).The disturbanceweakeneda day later. Post-analysisshowedthe circulatim trackeileastwardati tlx?convectionassociatedwith the disturbanc esbibitedtypicalnmnsccndepressioncharacteristics- sanecurvature,but the enhancedcomixtion cnlyon theequatorwardside of the trcugh. Increasedsurfacewinds of 25 kt (13#s) cm tie easternside of thecirculation and a steady drcp of sea-level pressureto 1002n-b,pranptd na.zmenticnof th disturhsncecn the Significant‘rrcpicalWeatherAdvisory (ABPWPGIW) at 2706002. A Tropical@lone FormationAlert(’ZCFA)followedat 2718002based cm a 25 kt (I3tis)satelliteintensityestimatebased cm ccmvectim thathad cmsolidated into a ragged=tral dense wercast(CZX3)feeture. Aircraftrecmnaiasanaswas subsequentlyscheduledforthe daylighthours of the 28thOf AWust. At that time the-typhocnforecasterwasfacedwith a dilemma:was the flar-up of convectimat the end of the nxm?ccmtroughjust anotherclashof the lmlevel aoutheasterlies,or was the signaturethat of a maturingtrcpicalcyclcme? Rubytsrelativelyclcee proximity to T@- Odessa (to thenorthwest) and the apparent weak surf ace inflcw inthe nortlwest quadrant, as depictedby the s~rseswoptic *tat deepenedthe uncertainty mncerningthe intensity of the systein.l%e questicn was answered when the initialaircraftrecmnaissancemissim at 2800202rqmrtedan elfipitical eye formingand a mininnsnsea-levelpreSSure of 982 inb. %Sed ~ this information,thefirstWrning on TrcpicalStorm Ruby Ws isswedinnnediately.SatelI_.ite imageryshcwd ttrsc1cudinesswas cana shapd with a largebard of convacticncaninginto the centerfrcm the southeast. ThisconvectiveM was positimed over tilestrciqsomof mnvergence betweenthe monsocnand the southeasttradea. The dsta sparseanalysisat 2800002,shwnin Figure 3-14-1,depictsthis ~nvergent area.Additiorbslly, aircraftreconnaissancereportedhat71

maximumsustainedwitis of 50 kt (26#s) with guststo 65 kt (33I#s) were restrictedto the area of thel-level convergenceand clcudband. Elsewhere,tothe west and soutbwsst,tke aircraftfourdcmly 15-30kt (8-15m/s) surfacewids. Figure 3-14-2shcwa theprOximityof Odessa to Ruby. The continuousverticalshear frctnthe cutflowof c&sea to the nortiswastaPPea= to have hanperedR&y’s furtherdevel-t.Wing the folknvingtwenty-fcur kours,Rubyturnednortheastwardand gradua ly increasedspeed.Finally,lateon the 29th,Ruby appearedto be breakingfree of tbs monsom trough. TM forecast philoscpbythroughoutthe 28th and 29th of AugustWS forI@y, like -sa, to turn mm westward,stay equatorwardofthe narrcwsubtropicalridgeand FWSSouthof Honshu,Japsn. This forecastscenariowasbased on Ruby’s interactionwith ‘1’y@mmPat. Rubywas forecastto be pulld aroundthe northern peri@-ery of Pat’smuch largercirculatim, which wascenterd southeastof Okinawa,Japan. Initially,thesyncpticsituationand, as a result,the meteorlogi-CS1 reasoningapp2aredto be similarto that fcr05essaand contraryto guidanceprovidd by the bestforecastaid, the One-way‘1’rcpical CycloneMcdel(G’lCM) . CYIU4nmved my northwardinto tie subtropicalridgeand towardsHcnshu,Japan,but at a slcxerspeed than it had previ-ly with Cdessa. CYIU4apparentlywas respxding to the approachof a midlatitudeshortwavetrough. Figure 3-14-3ccaKMresF.igL#LIz 3-14-2. Ni.gh.ttimmoonUgll.tM-@U.Lte imagwujO& Ruby. Tht C.LOAe ptox.inuXgo{ Odc%~a .toRubgUPPW ~0 kc hAMPQJL& Ruby’h &mthA davtipment.Ruby & n- maximum .LtienALtgo{ 55 b-t[Z~m/A)(2812411ZAuw.M IMP vtiaa.t.imagwj).72

m guidancewiti the forecastsfor warnings04through08. By followingthe forecastphilc60phythat OICM stillcould not resolvethe narrcwsubtropicalridge (dueto its largerinterml gridspacing), the warningsfaikd to reflectRuby’sgradualrecurvatureand subsequentlandfalluntilapproximatelysix hours beforethe event.Over a thirty-six hour pericd, between 2812002and 3000002,the TropicalStormmaintaineda maximumintensityof 55 kt (28tis). Ruby packed55 kt (28tis) winds as it moved scuthof Tokyo,Japan,butbsgan to weaken just prior to movinginto lbkyo13ayaml the Ranto Plain. Satellite imagery shcxA R@lost most of its central convection before makinglandfal 1 due to interaction with the mid-latitudewesterlies. Yokosukareceivd maximumsustaindwinds of 33 kt (17ds) with gusts to 47 kt (24tis)at 3014202,as Ruby passed 5-10nm (9-19km) to tileeast. Ouring this pericxlTokyoreceived three i*(76nun)of rain and minor damage- treesdcwn,windowsbroken and FCWer outagesfor thousandsofbanes. After twelvehours over land,Ruby moved backinto the Pacificand ccanpletedextratropicaltransitionat 311OOOZ./ (Jod .*6— JTWC FORECASTS (4 THROUGH 8A) .//-.-” ‘. OTCM (5 THROUGH 8) \sf /“1:5E++F.igum 3-14-3. A wmpazdon 06 OTCM gu.idanccand the~OkWAtA ~Ok @W WOM&g4 (04 .&tough 08].73

7-4,-, -..1 .1 1. ,.. 1 -1 J+1+I 1.. .1 . . ..’1. “.1. .~L’“:?: ::’: ;::*:’:::e 175” 17i,,- -.. . ,- .,. . .. .25”* I,65, -- *.. -Y. . . -,, ,+,--.. .--,. , 3.2? {* 0.8100 z. . . .--,. . ..- -., . ~8 -.. .-..24”- ~+‘t23”=4,/22”+174”1+u *175” 176°~_ SPEED 12Z2ZNSITY0506Z 45100512z 5090518Z 55IIJ -,.. . . . .- . . . .- . . . .,, 1 t I , tSA fPAd... .. . .&- ,-. ;:””::“ . 20-rr75- ‘“,,- -., .- -.t 7>r., 45---,. &-.k?c& — - 6, 4t*650 ‘ “ AKE—.- . ~- ---./.+pj,5( J-. / ‘.. ..- -,. -,. 14,.r4f,..m :-> 3‘- q/”fl 4 f?, , t /,, ’21-= F- 5of-

TYPHOcNSKIP (02C)Ty@mon Skip was the first systeinin the NorthPacificto be warnedon by toth the NavalwesternCceancgraphyCenter (MKXj, PearlHarbor,Hawaiiand the Joint Typlmm WarningCenter (J’IWC) , sinceTropicalStormCarnwm (02)in earlyApril, 1980.(Note:Trcpicalcyclmes east of the datelinearethe re?$crraibility of the CentralPacificHurricaneCenter (CPHC),Honolulu,Hawaii,but all warningsand alertsare issuedin coordinationwith -.)Skip develcpedin the centralNorth Pacificandtransitd the datelinetwice. Additionally,thesystemachievedtyphom intensitytwice:once eestsoutheast,andthen laternortheast,of Wake Island.Satelliteimagerydetectedan =ea of organizedccmvecticnalong the near-equatorialtroughcn the28th of August. This disturbanceracedwest-northwestwardforthe next forty-eighthcurs urderpressurefran the strongmid-Pacificsubtropicalridge.On 30 August,despitethe 20 kt (10tis) plus movement,sabelliteimagesshwed the clcud system’sorganizationhad increasedsignificantly.Thisprmpt~ the issuanceof a TrcpicalC@me FormaticnAlert (lK!FA)at 3017302by NWX. Alm=t immediatelythe ‘lITFA was followedby the firstwarNng at 3018002on TrcpicalDepression02C. Aa Skip transited~datelinefrcm east to west, it becamethe fourthof what wmuld be a five trcpicalcyclonescenarioin the same ocean basin. The other systeimtit werepart of this unusualwent ware Ck3essa,Pat, Rubynear Japan and Tess southwestof Guam.Respcmaibilitywas tranaferrd at the datelinefran NTKk2to JIW for the accordwarning. Thefollwing warniW Waded Skip to a tropicalstormat 3106OOZbased cn satelliteintensityest.imetes(pxs.tanalysislater showedthatSkip h?d reachedtropicalstorm intensitysix hoursearlier,at31OOOOZ). Coincidentwith intensificationSkipalso began m slew ita forwardmoticn. The ayateincbtainsdtypham intasity at 0112002. A wsaken.imgtretiset in cn 02 Septmber as a mid-leveltroughapproachedfran the northwest,but Wake Islardwasstill threatenadby Skip’sapproach. Finally,labson the 3rd, Skip turnd away from Wake Islandandnmved tcwardathe north. me l?r~icalCyclcnethenexecutedan abruptturn to the east ard moved eastwardfor eighteenhours. During this pericd tiecentralconvectionwas displaced,by strongerwindaaloft,to the east and rortheastof the lw-levelcirculaticmcenter.on 05 September,after the passageof a midleveltrcugh,Skip resumeda northwardtrack thrcughthe subtropicalridge and began to intensifyandaccelerate. A distincteye develcped(seeFigure3-02C-1)aa the peak intensityof 80 kt (41I#s) wasreachedon 07 Septti. But this peak was shortlived,as increased wind ahear aloft fran mid-latitudewesterliesand interaction with a trailingcoldfrontcame into play. Rxtratrcpicaltransitionwasrapidlyccanpletednear the datelineat O721OOZ. @warningresponsibilitywas trensferred fran .llW to- once again as Skip transitedthe dateline,thistime fran west to east,and - 2astwarningfollowedat 0800002.In retrospect,Skip providedits shareof fortoits lccationin the datacastingdifficultiesduesparsecentralNorth Pacificand the ccn’plexinteractionbetweenmid-latitudstroughingardthe subtropicalridge.Skip also proved to be a challengefa the 54th WeatherRemnnaisaanceSquadrcn@ flyprimarilyfor two reasona:its remote location,whichr~ired sta9in9 at the islandsof KwajaleinandWake; and the simultaneousomurrance of the multipletropicalcycloneoutbreakin thewest- lbrtiPacific, that stretched aircraft remnnaissanceassets to their limit. Once it became apparent thatWake 1s land was m longer threatened by Skip, aircraftreccnnaiasance tasking was cancelled.Figure 3-UPC-1. Typhoon Sk@ at maximum -iWtenAitLjwti a wti de@md we. SklpaMa.LQ a.t.tkeendoduco.td{ZOM ctoud band .i%d ex&n& to the notiea&t(070z’29Z.septembtiNOAA .imagvqfl .75

...,.. ..,, ..-.,.‘1.. ... ,.-,. ..,..-....-., . -.. .. -..+ ..-......-.. ..--.. .,-....--....--.. ..-.,.,.-... .--... -....-,...--.. ., , ,, I.1 ITYPHOONTESSBEST TRACK TC - 15W01 SEP -06 SEP 85MAX SFC WIND 75KTMINIMUM SLP 967MBSLEGEND++ 06 HOUR BEST TRAcK POSITA SPEED OF MOVEMENT:.300● *.--—+04+4.**$SUPER TYPHOON STARTSUPER TYPHOON ENDEXTRATROPICALDISSIPATING STAGEFIRST WARNING ISSUEDLAST WARNING ISSUED9Jm:1:1”~‘.

TYPHCKMTESS (15W)Typhoon Teas, the first uf five significanttrcpical cyclcmss to davelcp in September, originatedas a lcw latitude disturbance scutkeast of -(w?-$191217). Althoughbringingneededrain to thePhilippinesduringa s@l of drier than normal*at&r, ‘l?ess also broughtunwanteddeathand destruction.Fcur peoplepariskd, severalwere missingand at least 300 *re lefthomelessas this tropicalcyclonecra%sednorthernLUZUI and disruptd air,groundand sea transportation.In alditicn,atornadospawnd by Tess, ravagedthe coastaltcwn of-KY, 50 nm (93km) southof Manila (W 98425).During the last days of August, the mmsccKItrough was displacail polewrd and extended frm themrthern South China Sea eastward enccanpassing~s Pat andOdessa,and‘Bxpical storm Ruby.This left a broad zone of lcw-levelsouthwesterlyflmr acrcss tbe Philippiw Sea. The surfa@gradientlevelstreamlineanalysisfor 2800Q02(Figure3-15-1)indicati anticyclmic flw overGuam ati a cycloniccirculaticmto the southeast.‘l’his Cyclaic circulationcanter,whichwas movingnorthwestward,remainsdat tk westernend of a bandof maxim.mclcudineasthat shcwedno organization.Initialconditionsfor develqxnantof this lcw latitodedisturbancewre unfavorablebecauseof thes- verticalshear fran the squatorwardOutfla+charml of the multipletropicalcyclcnesto thenorth.At 12002on 30 Augustsatellite&ita indicatedthat the area of cloudiness,them located300 nn(556km) west of Guamr bad shown a marked increasein organizationand amountof convectionover theprevicua12-hcurs. Syncpticdata at tit time confirmsdthe existenceof a lar-levelcirculation,agradualdecreasein se-level pressureand witisest.imtedat 10 to 20 kt (5 to 10 m’s). These dataprmpted issuanceof the firstof two ‘ICFA’sat3019302. Aircraftracmnaissanos was requested forthe -t day.Gn O1O126Z Septssnber,the first aircraftrecmnaisaance flightinto the systemverifiadthelcaationof the surfacecirculation,and foundsurfacsswinds of 30 to 35 kt (15to 18 nis) @ aMSLP of 1003 mb. The first warning on TrqicalDepression 15W followd at O1O4OOZ. The center ofthe depression was located 600 run (1111 km) east ofManila . The tropical cyclone was moving rapidlywestward under the stewing influence of the subtropicalridge which lay to the north. AS the systemmatured, satellite imagery detected the formation ofa ragged Central Dense Overcast (C?30). 3ased m thepersistent @ and associated intensification trend,Tropical Depression 15W was qqraded to TropicalStormTess at 0112002 (Postanalysesshowed thatTessactuallyhed reachedtropicalstorm intensitysixhours earlier). Aircraftreconnaissance36 hcnwslaterat 0223512fcund 65 kt (33tis) maximwnsurfacewinds and a II%P of 983 b. AS a result,!&ss wasfurthery?grtiedto typhom status. At that time,TyphconTess was locatedby a cunbinationof aircraft,satelliteandradar informatim approximately130 nm (241km) east-northeastof Manila. Tess wesdestinedto make landfallover LUZOnwithin sixhours. As Tess nearedLuzon,it took a jog to thenorthwestsparingthe Manilaare frcn the strongesteffacts of the typlmmn.Landfallover mrthern Luzon resultedin theteu??orarydwmgrading of T=S to a tropicalstorm at0312002. Hwever, within elevenhours Tess hadclearedLuzcn and was againover water in the SouthChina Sea. Redavelcpnentto typhcxmintensitywasforecastand did cccur at 0500002when the ~homwas located170 ran(315km) SOUth of HOW Kong(WFfl45005) (Figure3-15-2). Tess continuednorthwestwardunderthe influenceof the subtropicalridgeand witi n 24 hours roved inlandOVGX the southerncoast of meinlandChina near Yangjiang (?FK)59663),120 xnn(222km) WaSt-aouttistOf Hong Kong. Thefinalwarningwas issuedat 0606002.Despitepassingwall scuth of Hong Kong,Tessgenerateda peak gust to 60 kt (31tis) at the llqyalObservatcmy,and 65 kt (33#s) at the Hong KongInternationalAirport (WM345007). Altkugh cmsiderableflccdingandcrop damage cccurredoversoutlxsrnChim as Tess wed inland,therewere noreportsof death m injuries.

Figluw 3-15-1. Tha 280000Z Augu&t m@fce/ghadientLw& &%zan@me ana&jbi6 o~ -the bowtkioeAt motioonalJtcw amhh the PWPinJ2 sea. The &xo-&Xudedi..4tiU.flCt ~outheo.6tOd Guam WUA the ptttiOfi 0~TebA.,78

F.@me 3-?5-2. TgpJtoonTeAA, W.WI u tigged ege, neaApeak i.ntetiilg. The coa&%i.ne along the notihennGut{ o~ Tonbin i..bXo the wti.to{ TUA8 c-iAAuAou.t@xu[050229z .sw-teJn6~uw utiuut .image,y).79

‘4t,.2 1,...+tj+I ! , ! IY ~-mL1tIrIII, [,. . .. .. . . .*. > -o, I + s+t., -$.#*”--..-‘m.m.- ym-- ..p; :*-.. #’\. - ..””,,. -.. .- -. vL- -+ +.b, \- , p/m - -c1. , ms-..+ \’ ‘-i \.~ ,I,i -e~. L..... . . . -.. . .. . -..m.- -,.L,I . . -.. .. .

‘IPOPICALS’IQRMVAL (16w)

1+!&- “-- /’:.-tLl-;>! _- (1 1 I 4 I I I , i-n s!{ /1 ,1, ./! I I 1 1.. ,J’ hn’ .IJi.1,: ,J, L350pN .,. . “i . ...+. ..$+‘“t””””w,..I# II It[ [ 1 I 1,,‘. B.,.. . . . ,,, -Iii.... . ..PI ~ LAIRI!1 }I”a I I/t I. . . ..I , I.. . . i,. . . .. . . b,.. .-.. .t I 1 1 ,,.. .-.. ..-.. . ..,. --.. . .. . . .. .t ,. . . . . . .. . . ..” . .t“’ ‘“”...::t::l’ .:::t:::i:”:i:t::w:4,,,! . . . + . . t . . . . t . . t . . . . t . .,,. Y- . . . . 7 )~x+“SEOUL ,....,.. ..,, ..,. ....,-,i,’..~kOPICAL. . . . . . .,. ....... .,, ....:..,. .,STORM WINONAt1 I I I II 1/ I b I+, ,\ll,, ~ IJ,*I I I I I I ‘ ‘y.!,,..’1 Cl ‘xL.-“ ‘::-i!-:‘ ‘::’ ‘XL0’v“-U,.... . . .. . . .- -.. . . . . . . . ..’, . . . . . .MINIMUM SLP 990 MBS. SHAN< -HA!o, ,,, .,, .b,., . . . . . . . . . ..,. .,,, . .,p,,30T-I>,LEGEND,/-“>~ 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSIT“’q’y :?j ““”” ‘“f.- . . . .\ +’ :-“ii- “... ,..:o~:.BEST TRACK TC- 17 W H19 SEP - 22 SEP 85MAX SFC WIND 50KTC POSITION AT XX/OOOOz.0. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE● . . TROPICAL DEPRESSION *-- TROPICAL STORM— TYPHOON+ SUPER TYPHOON STARTO SUPER TYPHOON END+++ EXTRATROPICAL. ● * DISSIPATING STAGEFIRST WARNING ISSUEDt+3 LAST WARNING ISSUEDiii:’,...Ḣ ..TSAIPA. . .,,, . . ,.LIT HIṪ ,.. .Y:P.,.. .t ‘GikXt .’\’ t PALAU Is a,,.wOLEfl..,. .,,.~::: --v; ;5.: : :,,t-t,..,...euM.,..$x T-.-, .,- .%? ,”.. ..- ------::,-. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... +“ L:tk:t”

.. . . . .-. . ..- -. ...: -. ..- -. . ..- -,. 1“’’~’~’’1’’”- .’~Y~;~ONBEST TRACK TC-18W28 SEP -02 OCT 85MINIMUM SLP 970 MBS 1

TYPHCoNANDY (18W)Typhmn Andy was a relatively short-livedtrcpicalcyclcoe. Developingin the .%uth ChinaSea, My transitd uneventfullyto the west-scuthwest.Altlmughthe cyclcnemade landfalltwice atca near typti strength,therewere m reportsofseriousdamage or injuries.The disturbancethat eventuallydevelqed intoTY@CXXIAndy wss firstdetectedlate cm 25 Septemberaa a smll area of intensecmnvecticnin the mxISocmtrougheast of the Philippines.This cmpact CDOfeaturewas part of a largerarea of disturbedweatherwhich had parsistd east of llindanaoforseveraldaya. l%e southernPortia of this largearea had been the subjectof a lWA on the 24th and25th . when the area of COnvecticnHOved northwstacrcaanorthernLuson earlyon the 26th and enteredthe SauthChina Sea, develcgmantof Iux3ybegan inearnest.se- 2600002 and 2700002 the trcpicaldisturbancemovedto the west-northwestand slowlyconsolidated.Coincidently,an earlyseaacnsurgein thenortheastmonsocmwas UI@erwaygenerating25 to 40 kt(13 to 21 n#s) winds acrossthe TaiwanStraitsandthe northernSouthChina Sea. Tnis surgemost pr*ably contributedto the excess IOtelevelcyclmicvorticityneededto producx2a leesi~ &rcu3aticmoff tie mrthweat coast cf Luson. The dwelqanant ofthis l-level vorti is thought- have aidedthedevelqaxentof Andy. At 270000Z,Dvorak intensityanalysisof the cloud systemestimated30 kt (15n#s)surfacewin3swere present. SparsesupportingSYnOPticdata at that * shcwedcnly 20 to 25 kt(10to 13 nVs) surfacewixr3snear the disturbance’scenter. However,due to the inprwed organizationand the _taticn for furtherdevelq.xnent, a lU?Awas issuedat 270300Z. ties than threehcurs later,satelliteimageryrevealedthe presenceof a partially-adlcw-levelcirculaticmcenter.Continuing to intensify, Andy attained typhoonstrength about 24 hours after the firstwarning,at2906002. At that time, the 5vorakintensityanalysiswas a T4.0, ~ 65 kt (33#s) surfacewirda.?mdy’s intensificationto a typhom coincidd withthe formaticnof a smallraggedeye. Ty@ccm Ar@firstmade landfallm the sc&hern tip of HainanIslatijust east of Yai-Xian(?29359948)at 2918002with UaxiXUnsustainedwir& of 65 kt (33II#s),guststo 80 kt (41tie.}.After a glancingblw to Iiainan(Figure3-18-1), A@ ccntinud weet-sathweatwardecrce5the southernGulf of Tmnkinand reacheditsmaximumintensityof 70 kt (36n#s) at 3018002.Ty@om ?irdymade landfallas a minimalstrengthtyphom approximately30 mn (56km) north of DongHoi, Vietnam (WFK)48848)at O11OOOZ. The trcpicalcyclonerapidlywakend as it nwved inland. Thelast warning, issued at 0200002, downgradedAndy to a25 kt (13n#s) tr~ica.1depreasim as it dissipatedover centralLaos.Altkugh a tiopi-1 cycl- of this magnittslawcmld ~ly be _td to causewidespreaddamage,rxne was reported. Extensivepreparationsmade prim tD the cyclme’s arrivalprobablylessenedthe @act of Andy’spassage.Over the next 24 hcurs, the systemcontinuedto IIK)Veto the wst-northwast in the monaom trough.Despite the presence of the lcw-level circulationcenter m satellite imagery m the 27th, aircraftreconnaissance early on the 28th was unable to finda surface circulation. But, because winds of 25to 30 kt (13 to 15 tis) and a 1001 mb MSL@ werecbserved,the ‘lCFAwas reissuedat 280300Z.‘l’hefirst warning m AI_@, ss TrQical Depression18w, followed several hare later at 280600Z.BY that time it Md becxzm apparent the system wasmore than just a benign circulation in the mmscmtrough. Dvorak intensityanalysesby IXO differentticticalDMSP sites estimated the intensity at 30 and45 k.t(15#s and 23 tis). AS TrOPicalDepression18w matured,it came umler the influenceof lCU- tomid-levelridgingto the north. The TrcpicalCyclcnerespondedby turningto the west-southwest.It movedin this directionfor the remainderof its lifetime.85

1 1 1TYPHOONBRENDABEST TRACKTC-19W29 SEP- 05 OCT 85-+ MA)( sFc WIND 9oKT t--+--+MINIMUM SLP 964MBs, , I , t.... “L+(T:K-,‘+J-’e’”IWO JIMAulGzPEmmImsny—. _Olooz 55601067. 6060112Z 6060118Z 6560200Z 70602062 7502122““””’”’T” t ‘“’” ‘t. . -1.F.,. . . % fl\-+. ./. .~. ...\+ . . . + . ...+%”... .+ .!..+.-%Oe,//’.,‘/’il!i?+“L-$. .+->.“.,!. . . . . ,.. . - . . . . .- -... . .‘-l ‘i-~5e. ------‘;’;’““-. ..,. .....““:... . . ...,- .,.,~,r4?ttt”.t,.’)e-,.:( -’-;l“’’’’”””/. .!...-...++’1000, , 1 t 11“%.: I , I t-“’’1’’’’ 1’”LEGEND--+ ~ 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSIT +-i-1A SPEED OF MOVEMENTB INTENSITYC POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ. . . TROPICAL DISTURBANCE● ● * TROPICAL DEPRESSION-- TROPICAL STORM—. +— TYPHOON* 5UPER TYPHOON STARTO SUPE~ TYPHOON END+4+ EXTRATROPICAL* ● ● DISSIPATING STAGEk FIRST WARNING ISSUEDA LAST WARNING ISSUED: .*,+ i-i -“’’,,1!. *. r *.-+-. . ..–.40- WAKE++; T- ““+‘+- F-t---dt}.L-t--i-~l;” :eENEUETAK+----+ i-i-loot-+- --+*–‘9””,.. kwAJ~!. EI, N. .a..:5 klAJURO‘1“.,>%SRAEl--t’,. .,. , . . .‘%. . O*... ,.. . ,,*T.+”+,,.,.h,

TWHC@l BRHJDA(19W)TyphconBrendadevelcped fran a bread,persistentarea of convecticmin tie mcnsocntrough.Ita Lifewas influencedby two mid-latitudetroughs.The first causederraticemly movemnt. The accordcausedBren& to recurveinto the mid-latit@? westerlies,atrackwhich was wall-for=astby the Jointl’yphwmWarningCenter.me disturbancethatmld bacme Brendawasfirstnoticedon 25 Septedxz as a largearea of~rsistent convection=utheast of Truk (K?4391334).(Fartherw5st, the early sigrsof TyphocnAndy wereevidentin the westernPhilippineSea). Althoughthesystemwas disorganized,god uppar-lwel outflowwaswident. ‘l’heproximityof the ticpicaldisturbanceto Guam ati ita impressivesatellitesignatureresultedin the issuancaof the firstof four‘ICFAaat 2522302. tircraft reccnnaiseanceearly cn the26th was unableto locatea surfacecirculaticm,but did fiti a brozd area of troughing. ‘1’lEareatrackednorthwestthroughthe 26th,with the convticncoveringa broa5 area and u&per-leveloutflm’remainingfavorable. This prcnpted the reissuance ofthe ‘lCFA,at 2622302, but onos again aircraftreconnaissanceearlyonthe 27thwas unable to locateacirculation. This scenariorepeateditselftk nextday. Finally,late cm 28 Septen4x3r,the &p convectionbegan to sh~ an increasein anmuntandorganization.A few hours later,after the fourth‘IU?Awasissued,aircraftreconnaissancefeud a closed15 kt(8tis) circulationat 2903292. ‘lheslew deve@-mant of the disturbancewas surprising,since itappared that all the necessaryingredienta fordevelqxrentwere present. It is thoughtthat theextemelybroad size of the disturbancemay havepreventeda fasterdevel~t, which is mre typicalof WESTPACtropicalcyclczms (Figure3-19-1).The firstwarningon Brendawas issuedat2923472, valid at 2918002,based qmn aircraftreccnnaiasan~which locateda 20 kt (10u#s)circulationand a tSLP of 1000 mb - a ~ of threeFigtie 3-19-I. Vima.t i.mag’uyOd the 7710p.icaZ@A.ttu&ance & the time ai.mJuz&tzacoana.i.&ance @At.tocateda hti~ace c.i.zc.ddioncen.tek.ThiA O@UW@bmxzd Mea o{ convectionAhaued lZt.tte change {hornthe 25th thtough the 28th. Moht o~ the cwxztwte due.toan uppm-.tevti anticgcbne. The abnom@Ltg .WLge&ize o{ the ddtibance mug haue dixoed devtiopment[2901072 Sep.tembu DMSP viwal? .i.magq).87

millibarsin less than 24-hours. Initialforecasficalled for the s~tem to graduallyincreasein intensity,movewest-northwst and cross northernLuzon.This was based cm tie expectationthat the subtropicalridgewould maintainitselfnorthof Brenda.But, Brem3amovad wsst-scuth,rest followedby a briefturn to the northwestbeforea~ently capleting asmallcyclcniclccp on 1 C&o&r. Thesemovementswere relatedto the passageof a mid-latitudetroughto the mxth. Althoughthe tioughdid not ccupletelyweaken the ridge,it erodeclthe ridge enoughtoaffectthe steeringflow. As a result,Bren3amov@slcxvlyand erratically. By the 2nd, tk trcughhadpassed to the northeastand the subtropicalridgebeqan to rebuild. Brentb respondsdby turninqbackto- the west-northwest bile &ntinuifi to int&sify,eventualy reachingtyphocmforceat 0118002. Atthat point it appearedthatBrerdavmuldmissnorthernLuzcn and track just scuti of the islatiof Taiwan.On 2 Cctcber,aircraftreconnaissanced2temthat the,~hocn had increasd in strengthati wasmxe circular. With anothermid-latitudetroughapproachingfrcm mainland China,it appear~ thatBrenda’sback would again b affectd in 24- to 36-hours. Using this informationand the belief thatthe subtropicalridge was mt going to build farenoughWest to drive BrencLathroughthe LUZCZ)straits, the forecasttrackwas ~vised to recurveBrendaaround the end of the ridge just east ofTaiwan. Figure 3-19-2shcws the forecastaids~.,. ‘A30N+OTCM NING.NR-13 i25”+● /1‘{/ i●●I●)...-*●●9●++Qi15”+l15E‘+/$\+12W125E+130E+135EF.@tie 3-19-2. Fokeea4t ti al Z4-ltowLi.n.texvafx,when the @At aecuzva.tute~ofiecatw .iAued,tiecmpazed to the utah.n.ing and %tenda’A beb.ztick.&)h.ite ~ome a.iib(NTCM,COSMOSad TYAN RECURVER){O?WMAX fiecuhvtie; OTCU, JTWC’h bu$ d duIL@the PUAX fjw yexuL.4@-f.4 to indicate aectmvtiemAU d tie A.LGwin fjonewt.ing the bpeed% 06movement dwi.ng Aecuhvttttme.88

availableto the !Irx3when the firstrecurvatureforecastwas issued. This forecastdifferadconsiderablyfrcrnthose of otherwarningagencies,but proved to be quite acmxate, althoughthe speedof mcvsnr2ntwas slow.Bremdahad a uniquesignaturecm satelliteima9erYbecause of ite extremelylargeeye. tircraftreconnaissanceconfirmedtie existenceof alargebandingeye on 3 C@xber. Satelliteimageryshca+ada raggedeye, often largerthan60 nm (111km)in dimter (Figure3-19-3). The largeeye lastedfran 0300002until Brerdamoved aroundthe ridgeandbegan to accelerateinto the westerlieson 4 Cctcber.Duringrecurvature,Brendaperfonmd as bx?-cast. It reacheda uaxirnumintensityof 90 kt(46n#s) at 030600z,and maintainedthat intensityfor 24-hours,aa it turnedb the corti and passedeast of Taiwan. l.kiier the influenceof the mid-I.atitudswesterliesnorth of the ridgeaxis,Brendabxned to the nxthaast and accelerated,paasingjustsouthof Korea cn the 5th. Extratrcpicaltran.siticnwas underwayby 0500002ard tie finalwarningwasissud at 0506002. The extratrcpicalremainsofBrendapassed throughtie Korea (Tsushima)Straitard enteredthe Sea of Japan at 0512002beforeslcwingdown and wakening.Knmn damage fran Brendawas limit63b tbssouthernKoreanPeninsulaand cdjacentkLSIXk.Nearly 12 inches (30cm) of rain was repxtsd owr alargearea. The Korean t?aticnalDisasterReliefCenterreportsd14 dead, 43 missing,ard damage to167 houses,630 watercraft,and 34,600.acrea(14,000hectares)of rioe paddiesas a resultof th storm’spassage. Damagewas greatestm the islandprminceof Cheju and the two provincesnear the coastalcityof Pusan (W@ 47153)in the southeastcornerof thepeninsula.Fi.gume3-19-3. Nighttimeenhancedi.n@uLedimagwy06 Bmnda’b .tahgeqe. Tkeeged 75 m [139fan]indi.amatm(0314072Octobm DMSP enhanced.tn@vu2d.inlagelg) .m

m.-,. . .- -.. . . .-.. .- -.. !,,- -.. ,WAN: :HA!o.,.,.,.. . . .! r 1 1 r [ I‘,,+~:~:+ ‘:” “t’ ‘tt‘::il::t:::~t:::t:●✚☞☞BEST TRACKTC - 20W12-16 OCT 1985MAX sFc WIND 100 KTMINIMUM SLP 944 MBs☞f I /Y3 ~ I I I .-r+, I1, 1 !,/ I/’ ‘,&s’ .* I““#y ’”(’”t’,”’’t’’”’t” ‘“LEGENDM)~A06 HOUR BESTTRACKPOSITSPEEDOF MOVEMENTBCINTENSITYPOSITIONATXX/OOOOZ... TROPICALDISTURBANCEc.●--TROPICALDEPRESSIONTROPICALSTORMi--t—+TYPHOONSUPERTYPHOON STARTO SUPERTYPHOON END+++.EXTRATROPICAL● ● ● DISSIPATINGSTAGE* FIRSTWARNING ISSUED -t-t* LAST WARNING ISSUED: #AIR.,. ..- ... -., .....-.. ..--.. .....-.,.-..-......-.. ....-.. ..--,. ..--.,....,I)!L12m::-tlfYl+-,0, ,.;.6. .I 1 ,.,.. . .-- ,M t -ArII II I1, , 1 A, 1 . .I ● I, , I i t 5“+—.. _!s/’ k---nI:** . . . . . . . . . .&+lc?t:~:; :: ~::H1:1 .%* ‘St .F %““>”.” ,,....,,. . . lfj d O%%..-’.-, 1 ,. . . .-i T ‘9It “GUh t. . i .. . . i . . . f . . .!JLITHIt!,! 1‘m -1IIYZPL ,,. . .. .aWOLE:I.TRUK,,, ,.., I 1/’q %..”-%,’ “’%ooe,,.I-. ~‘7,.1:~,,,%.: T,.. , 1,..

... .L“”: ““:”- : _1 ..”... .,, ..- ., .:,--r ,r # , , I , I,.,-.. .- -., .- -., . . -., ..- -.... ..,. , .- -., . ,- -,.I,.- -.1.,. --,. .,- . . . ,- -... ..- -.. . ,- -., , ,. -.. ,. -,. .- -,.II , ! ,, .,.,. , --.. . ..,. ,_ -,, ‘TVW I bn,.. . --., . .- -,. .- -,,LEGEND. . --.. .- -.. . .- -,, .. --.. . .-., . .- _,, ,.,, , ,,, , ,,, , ,,, ,... . ... . .t t tYPHOONDOTEST TRACK” Fc:2iwIs ~PT. 99 nrr oc1++ 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSIT JA SPEED OF MOVEMENTC POSITION AT XX/OOOOZIRBANCE: MINIMUM 51P 897MBS3SIONo t:?: ‘ t ‘ ‘“”: ‘.} ‘&-;F=yi;E”KT 1 :liaE!M.------------ .....— TYPHOONL . ...4....4.. . ,4- . . . .41.....4 . ..-.4....4.!.. .-L, .m. ,.L -

SUPER ‘rYPHOm m (21W)After Typhmn Brerda,whi~ W developA in thelow-levelsouthwestnbmsocntrough,canpletedextratropicaltransiticmcnthe 5th of Octc&r, the midlevelsubtropicalridgebecamewell-establishedoverthe WorthwestPacific. This syrqtic featurewmuldconfinethe devel~nt of tropicalcyclcnesto lcwI.atitdesnear 10N in the near-equatorialtrough.Also coincidentwith Brenda’smovementto tie northwas the replacementof the lcw-levelsouthwestnmaocm flow over the SouthChinaSea with rmrth-tcnortheasterlyflewoff of the Asiancontinent.TyphocnDot WS the cnly supertyphocm (intensityequal to or greaterthan 130 kt (67I#s)) oftie 1985 WESTPACseascm. It intensified(deepensd)explosivelycausingintensityforecastclifficulties.Other distinguishingcharacteristicswere the smallsize of the area of intenseconvection,the smallradiusof maximumwind, and the absenceof low-levelsouthwestmonsocm inflow. Also of interestwas thelargewird radiusin the northwestsemicircle(whenit was lccatedsouthaastof Luzon)where surfacewinds were enhancedby a strongpressuregradientbetweemthe tropicalcycloneand a polar highpressurecell locatednear 40N 11OE.Dot was firstdetectedas a tropicaldisturbancein the near-equatorialtrough,150 nm (278km) southeastof Pcnape (WFKl91348)m the llth of C&c&r.Figure3-21-1shcwa the disturbancecm the 12th ofOctoberexhibitingsigns of organisaticnin itaupper-leveloutflow. The s~tem moved west-northwestand reachsdtropicalstorm intensitya the 13thsouthof Guam.F@@ 3-21-J. Supet TyphoonDot aA a ddtuhbance inthe nem-eqtio~ tioughwtik Aigvu otjozganireduppa-levti OU@OW [1200062OctobezDMSP V.LSIMI~941 .93

The trackforecastsfor ‘l?y@mmDot did mtpresentany significantclifficultyfor the forecastersatJIWC. Figure3-21-2shcxrsthat themid-leveleasterliesdaninatethe Trust Territorieswsstwardthroughthe PhilippineIslar& and intoSoutheastAsia at 120000z. With no change-tedin the orientationor strengthof the ridge,awest-northwes trackat 10 to 20 kt (19 ta 37 kdhr)under this ridgewas consideredto be the bestforecast. This was in agresmentwith climatolcgicaland analogforecastguidance. The two numericalmrdels,~M (On~ay interactiveTropicalCYClOmkdel) and l?lC?4(Nested Trcpical@lcne Mel), wereof littlehelp during the crucialfirstfar days offorecasts(whenCot was approachingthe Philippines).Due to ccnputerproblemsat Fleet NumericalOceancgraphyCenter (FNX) the olderPrimitiveEquation (PE)rcdel was run in place of the NavyOperationalGlcbalAtmosphericPredictionSystem(NDGAPS). Later,it was detennine5that ~, whenrunningwith data frcanthe PE mcxiel,didn’t haveaccess to the necessarydata fields. Subsequently,OTCM Was tiified to accept the needed&ta.F@Ju? 3-21-2. 400 mb Nunitico,tv Wuu-tiOnd ‘ ?#za&jA&$[NVA)at 120000ZOctobm Ahcwinge.m.ttiti ovenDOZ’h @tMe tick to tht wtit-no~tit.94

T“heone aspectof TyphconDot that did presentconsidaable fo&cast difficultywas intensity. Inthe twenty-threehour periodbetvieen1500222aml152342ZCot’s centralsea-levelpressureCkpped frm969 mb to 903 ti (adecreaseof 66 nb). This translatestoa drop of approximately2.8 Mhour. Thismets and exceedsthe rate of 2.5 Whr (sustainedfor at least12 hours) thatHol.lidayand Thmpxa(1979)used to define explosiveintensificaticm(deepeniwg) . JIT?Cuses a technique(Dunnavan,1981),in which the 700 mb equivalent~tential temperature(Theta-E,a measureof the tiopicalcyclcne’stiennodynamicenergybasedm the central700 nb temperatureand dewpoint)and the o?ntralsea-levelareccmp=ed pressureto forecastexplosiveintensification.‘_hetechniquecalls for intenstiicatimtotelcw 925 mb (hewfar belw can be estimatedfrcxntietechniquealso)wheneverthe plots of centralsealevelpressureandTheta-Einkrsect near thecriticalvaluesof 950 mb and 360 degreesKelvin(bothvaluesbeing statisticalmeans derivedfranpast intensestorms). Figure3-21-3is a plotof Dot’s centralsea-levelpressureand Theta-Eduring the period 140530Zto 180828z. At Point A(142130Z), the two linesshow a bmdency to intersect(noticeextra~laticn to PointA‘). Hcwever,PointB (150022z)reflectsa decreasein Theta-E.Then, at Point C (1506152), this trendreversesardagain extrapolationto PointC‘ would indicateintersection. Point D (150853Z)shcwaa slightTHETA E TraceTropicalCyclone DOT ?bnth OCT 82I.5!!15=F.igum3-21-3. P.Lo.t offD02’A centw..tAea-J?evelpJLeA&meand centmzl.700 MB equiwuknt pot’zti.tempeh.aalMe tig the pezi.od140530z.tolgo~2tZOctobe-t.95

decreasein Theta-Eand m intersection.The nextavailableaircraftreconnaissancedata was mtreceivd until 152102z,ad by that tire ~t’scentralsea-levelpressurehad plunnmtedto 906 mband the central700 mb temperaturehad soar~ fran20 Celsiusto 30 Celsius (yieldinga Theta-Eof 372 Kwhen pairedwith ttrsd~int temperatureof 11Celsius). This forecastnettx.Y3 is a reliablecnein rmst instances. Hc.wever,TyphconDot demonstratesa situationwhen tie lack of timly aircraftdatapreventedthe effectiveuse of the technique. Inpst-analysis, if pressure,tenperattme,and dwpointdata had been availablearcwxl1512002it isa distinct~ssibility that the intersectionof thecentralsea-levelpressureline aridthe Theta-Elinewould have been obserwd.The reliabilityof tiis forecasttechniquewasmentionedearlier. Hcn?ever,in edditicnto thetimingprdlem alreadymentioned,a coupleof factorsshouldbe pointedout. Firat,the ccnputaticmofTheta-Eis very sensitiveto dewpointtemperature(andto a lesserdegree aubienttemperature).Thedewpointmeasurementis also sensitiveto a sunetimesnon-hcmqenecusdistributionof moisturein thestorm’scenter. Seccmi,a rarerbut scanetire.s canplicatingfactoristhe ccr@exity ard delicacyofthe dewpoi.nthygrctmterwhich is an alternatelyccol~ heatedmirror coupld with a thermistor.?he &wPoint te~rature is recordedwhen a thin filmof dew form cn the mirror. Malfunction of theinstnnnentoccasionallycncur.To give the rea%2r an indicationof what @etnot kmavingthat Oot !ms going to explosivelydeepenhad a the intensityforecastscan be seen in Figure3-21-4. The graph &picts the best trackintensities(atsix hour intervals)for the pericd 131800zto1812002ccnparcdto the correspmx3ing12-,24-,48-,and 72-hcurintensityforecasts. Twelve-hourfore-1601501401307~ BEST TRACK------12-HOUR FORECAST— 24-HOUR FORECAST----4 8-HOUR FORECAST------72-HoUR FORECAST_ 24-HOUR DVORAKFORECAST120110100908070605016,I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I IIZ 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12ZF.igwce3-2t-4. Plot o{ Oot’A ba~ tick itiemitiaal Ai_K-boutin.te.tvdand comtiponding 12-,24-,48-,and 7!Z-houhdokemi intetititi ~oh -thepwiod131800Z.tO 181200Z (ktobez 85.96

casts for the pericd 151200Zthrough1606002were 20,15, 15, SIXI10 kt (10,8, 8, and 5 IW’S)lm. For thesameperiod twenty-fcur hcur forecastswere 30, 20,35, and 20 kt (15, 10, 18, and 10 II#s)belcw tie besttrackintensities.Fran the graph cne can see thatthe 24-hour forecastintensitycurve is very close tothe Dvorak forecastintensitycurve. This is usuallythe case since the Dvorakmmlel is the main Jl%C24-hourintensi~ forecasttool. The prcblemwith~losive intenaificaticnreallystartsshcwingup attie 48-hourforecastpericd. ‘l?he48-hourintensityforecastsduxing the pericd1518002through1618002Octc&r were 45, 55, 50, 50, and 35 kt (23,28, 26,26, aod 18 II#s)tco la% The three72-bcurforecaststhatwere effectedby the expl=ive deepmhg werefor the period 1618002through170600ZOtt ard were55, 50, and 35 kt (28,26, and 18 II#S) imo 30W.After M ha explosivelydeepened,the intensi~forecastsreflectedthe storm’shigh initialintensityand the forecasterrorsdacreasadsignificantlywiththe average12-har intensity forecasterror for the pericd 140600Zthrcagh1812002 (18cases)being 5 kt (3#s) , the average24-hourerrorfw the period 1418002through1812002 (16cases)being 14 kt (7I#s), the average48-hourerror forthe perio5 151800zthrough1812002 (12cases)being24 kt (12@s) , and the average72-hourerror for theperird 1618002through181200Z(8 cases)being 28 kt(14#s) . The pint being made is that a forecasterdoesn’t necessarilyhave to knew 72 hours ahead oftime that a system is going to explosivelydeepen,butifhe knu?s120r24 houra ahead oftime then thelongerrange forecastsmade duringthat pericdwillreflectthe higher storm intensityand be mareaccurate.Figure 3-21-5 shwa SuperTy#Ian Dot at maximmintensi~ with a well-define3eye d intense.conveetion confinedto a small area around the system.Aircraftreccrmaissancem the 16th and 17ti ofFigwuz3-21-5. Supn TyphoonfJo.Za.tmar.imvn&&n4-Ltg wtih a weL.2-d@md ega and &no.U mzhoundi.ngting 0{ intenbeconvection(170147ZOcXobctUMSPU.i.brlat.imaguy).97

Octcber consistentlylccatedthe mxinnnnsurfaceClark AB reportedmax.inmnsustainedwindsof 27 ktwinds 5 to 10 nm (3 to 5 km) frcm the centerafi (14Ms) with a peak gust of 44 knots (23tis). Dotradar eye diametersof 10 to 15 nm (5 to 8 km).was a very intensetyphom but the damagedone in thePhilippineswas certainlylimitedby the storm’sFigure3-21-6shcwa the surfacewind circulation smalldiamter of maximvmwind, its smallarea ofpatternaroundDot (whileit was southeastof Luzon)intenseconvection,its path of apprcachto Luzonat 1812002&tcber. Strongwinds extendedout much (thiskept mst of the lcw-levelflew parallelto thefurtherin the rmrthwestsemicirclewhere the surface nmmtainous terrain,reducingorcgraphically-enh~edwinds were frcm the north to northeast. This in-rainfall), cud the absenceof enhancedkm-levelcreased‘fla resultedfran a strongpressuregradient southwestnrmsoalflew.that existedbetweenDot ati a @ar high-pressurecell locatednear 40N 11OE. The figure also shcwsAfter enteringthe SouthChina Sea labs cn tktk absenceof any enhancedlcw-lavelsouthwest 18th crfOctoberwith minimalty@con intensity,Dotrmnscm flew wer the Southtins Sea. began regainingorgani7&im overwaterand‘cxmtinuedcn a west-northwesterlytrack. By 213lZ)OZ, theThe threat posed by Super‘TypkonDot causalall Typhom’s intensitypeake5at 90 kt (46u/s) 300 mnU.S.military installatims in the Philippinesto be (556km) south-scutkastof Hong KOIXJ (VW 45007).placed in l’rcpicalCycloneCcnditim of ReadinessIDot weakenedas it churnedacrossthe southerntip ofand resultedin the evacuationof aircraftfran CubiHainan Island,leavingat least two dead, 2300 hcusesPoint t%%Sand Clark AB, ad the mnssnentof several collapsed,ad flocdingin its wake. Crossingtheships frcm Subic BSy. seventy-four pecples were Gulf of lkmkin in less than a day, it slaum2dintor~~ killed,more than50,000 lefthcmeless,a the coastof NorthVietnam130 nm (241km) SCRM ofdamage b buildingsand crcpsestimstedat 1.3 Hanoi (WFS348819). ‘l%efinalwarningon Oot wasmillia dollars. NA~ Cubi Point reported issuedat 220000zas the system.dissipatadover thea ~.~t of 19 kt (10tis) and net 5, 20WS at Imgg& Umuntainsinland.. ....—F.igwce 3-?1-6. Sum~aceanalgh.da-t1gJ2002 Octoiwz~how.i.ng b.?%Ong wkf2 extending oti a gwa.t diA.tancein the notihw~$ &miti&e and .thtabA encc o~(convmti.on-enha.need) &xu-.&2uetbotieA.t motioon@710.98

Figwce3-’,?1-7 ṠupeA Typhoon Vo.twi,tk85 k.noti(44m/A) a&tek GILOAAingLuzonand ?ce-.itien.@y.Lng in thesouxh Ck&a SQJI(2002272 Octobn VW V.hLdimagmq).99

5?- 33 t 8 1~1,,, w,?,ffjiiw - v, .0 .?,0,’. * ,.. -, .,.. . ...,- -.. .0,.. . . . . . --,. . ,.. . .,.’. . . . . . . . . . . ..08 ,30?+ . ‘1’’’’1’’’’1’’’’1’’”,., . . . .w:-;::”-“’”-“0’*L 264 .IWO JIMA - -,,‘‘ ‘“}.T. if@. .: ’p::, :p::: p:.:,, I — J+. --., . . .-4...- -., ..- -,. . .- -..,.- .TROPICALSTORM ELLISBEST TRACK TC - 22Wt-..,“”’16 OCT -20 OCT 85, I -.J-+11I— 30”MAX SFC WIND 50 KT,,, . -.. .- -,. ..- -.. ,- -,.MINIMUM 51P 995 MBS,., . --.. . .- -.. . .-,!. . .- -.. . ----, I I , I , ,LEGENDi — 25°,. ~ARcu-. @ . . . . .- ..,.~ 06 HOUR BESTTRACKPOSI TA SPEED OF MOVFUKM7 .,.,. !. .... . . . . . . . .B INTENSITY125°1 0°. . .155” . 160”, 1 5° C POSITION AT X: x/ooooz000 TROPICAL . . -----------DISTLURBANCE. -l-.-l.+. +’+. ! .“. I1 7. . . ‘man’> ‘ ‘ ‘CDDESSION1:::::lrwrl~mb u.r~,2lM“::::--- TROPICAL STOR::::!~:::: :::: :::– 20°,.. .-.. .- .,. . ,- -.., .- -.. , .- ..,. . — TYPHOON.-.. . .‘i * SUPER TYPHOOP,. C*A‘y -,”.. .‘l I. . . . . .. . . . .- -.. . ,.. . . . ,.o SUPER TYPHOOIN END------...,- -., . .- -., ,- -.. . .4Y. ,7 .: y:,:: ;5; :., : :. $++ EXTF RATROPICAL “.-JIPATING STAGE.,- -.. .- -,, . ,- ,... ., - ... . .. .* H-il IRST WARNING ~ARNiN( ISSUED; ISSUED1 ..,k. . c1 15“dlI,,- -.. .- -..,.- -,. .5“4 ,. . . . . l.#.. \t!\. .J. J-. + :“”:At J ~,KWAJ~LEIN ,.. . . . . .. . . A2.MAJURO ‘“””. . . .-.. . .- ., , 1, I v.. ..- . . . . . . .‘a# ‘5::::: ::::: :::::: -:;: ;“::;:,:45: ... :... :. . . . .. ...’- - ~ ?TARAY !’ . . . .●t Ir 1 Io+ . 1 , 1 ao“,,,.,,. .- . . . .,.- . . . . ,,,;,,, , .,, - ., ..:’. -:::.’- -:”. .-. . ..- -. . ..- -. ..,- -. ’.- -“,.,, . . . .. . .. . . .. . -....’. -. .,. . . . ..-1 , 1 t+-- , ,5“..- -. . ..- -., ““”- ““”’”- -’”””- -“’”- -’””’-~“%... --“”’- -’”””- ‘“”’”- -“.”’-~~~ -- ~o.~ -“ --’-”””T’””-

l’F!3PICAL STORMELLIS (22W)TrcpicalStormEllis,which formsdin the wakeThis, in ccmbina tion witi aircraftreconnaissanceof SuperTy@on Dot, provedto be a relativelywhich locateda surfacecirculationwith 35 ktshort-live5system. Althcmghit did not pass closeenoughto any populatedareas to cause significantdamage,Ellis was noteworthysince it presentsda(18tis) at the 1500 ft (457m) levelat 1604582,prcmptedthe firstwarningon TropicalStormEllis at160500z. Ellis was forecastto move west-northwestunioueforecastirwrmblem. 0ri9imlly forecastunder the subtropicalridgewhichwas apparentlyw1lto &we west-nor&w&t urrierthe-subtr-&icalridqe establishedto the north of the system. At 17000OZ .--. .—= I&s relativelyclcse to Guam, it &tually SitiEllis slcwedto 3 kt (6 kdhr) as the steeringflcwjust-after reachingtropicalstorm intensityand pmceadedsoutiof the subtropicalridgeaxis maken~ into mve southwestfor almostthreedays before respmse to the passageof a mid-latitudetroughtodissipatingover water.the north. The fore-castphilcsophyof continuingthe west-northwestrackwas mt changedat this‘l’he disturbancewhich aentually develcpedintoTr@ical StormElliswas firstcbservedas acurvedband of convectionnear the islandof Ponape(w&II91348) on 14 Octcber. The ar= was subsWentlYincludedcm the SignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory(A6pw~) at 1406002. The systemnwsi west-northwestand increasedin organizationduring the next36-hours. At 1517302,a ‘lrcpicalCycloneFonmticmAlert (’ICJ?A) was issuedand aircraftreconnsissancerequestedfm the follcwingday.Interpretationof the 1600002visualsate13iteimagery,using the Dvorak intensitytechnique,yieldsda surfacewind estimateof 35 kt (18tis).point,as a resumpticmof thatmovementwas expectsdwhen the mid-latitudetroughroved northeastward.In addition,the synopticguidanceappearedto be inagreementwith this reascming. Figure3-22-1isFleet NumericalOceanographyCenter’s (FNCX2)700 nbNumericalVariationalAnalysis (NVA)field for170000z,which indicatesthe wsak easterlyfl~aroucdthe subtropicalridge and the mid-latitudetroughnorthof Ellis. The 400 nb analysisfor thesame time (Figure3-22-2)indicatessimilarfeatures,exceptthe north-southextentof the subtropicalridgeis much smaller. Note that the flow nearEllisis generallywsak and southerly,with wakto the north.easterlies30%430%2CfN20%10”N10%~.o“130”E 140”E 150% 160%150? WEIFiguze 3-22-J. 170000Z700 mb Numai.cd V~nar-LAduAti [NVAI bkowiw wak tiowhin!l and 15 ktF.@lAQ3-22-2. 7700002 400 mb NVA depicting weak&idghg notih o~ EL?.d.101

Due to tie uncertainty of thesemid-trc@-sphericamlyses, syncptictrackaircraftmissionswere requested. The one flcwnbetween03002 and0700Z on 17 Cctcberprovided400 mb winds in thevicinityof Ellis’ forecasttrack. Figure3-22-3shcws theseobservatias. In contrastto the NVAanalysis(Figure3-22-2)for that time,the flew isgenerallynortherlyto the north and west of Ellis.The lack of data over water in the westernNorthPacificwas probablyrespmsible for the disagreemmtbetweenthe aircraftobservationsand the NVAanalysisat 400 mb. However,the NVA fran thefollcwingday (180000Z)representeda significantchange;the cbservations fran the synoptictrack=e~ !@ agr~ent with tie new anal~is at 400 fi(seeFigure3-22-4).In the reantireaircraftreconnaissanceatlo%,,& 5“+++ ~.’c’..1.-”.8.GUAMT?140”E 145”E I#E10::4F.igwte3-22-3. Obbe.wa.tionbdaom.tkea.dL#Lu&Zneconnalhhancemi.bbi.onAynoptictick at 400 mb,.indicdingnotih@ &fmw vice eaA.teJ@&tow ahead 06EfLLiA .31301 140° 150” 16(XF.Qume 3-22-4. 1800002Octobe.t 400 mb atijbib,blwwing notih~ @xo ahead o{ EU..i.b, which aghetiwtih etien obbWLvationb @om the btjnOp.tiC.Ocack.102

1722002ard 1723452found the lcw-levelcirculaticmcenterwell southof the forecasttrack,indicatingEllis had moved south-southwestduringthe Perid.At that timeEllis also reachedits maximumintensityof 50 kt (26tiS). The featurethat helpedto drivethe low- to mid-levelridgingto the wst and rovedEllis to the south-southwest,was mst probablyanup~r cold lcat,or cell, in the trcpicaluppertrcpospherictrough(TUIT). The 200 * a~lYsis for1900002 (seeFigure5–22-5)indicatsdthat the TUITcel1 was in close proximityto Ellis. Satelliteimageryat that time indicatedthatup~-leveloutflcwwas suppressedin the west semicircle(seeFigure3-22-7). The lc%- to mid-levelflew remainednortherly,and Ellis continuedits southwestwardtrack.At 1912002,Ellis began to weakenas it attemptedtonmve under the m cell and ~riencedincreasedverticalshear. By 200000Zthe intensityhad decrease3to 30 kt (15#s) and the low-levelcloud lineshad lostmost of theircurvatuze. Thelast warningwas issusdat 2006002.In retrospct the One-wayTropicalCyclcneModel(~) presentsda puzzleduringthe initialforecastson Ellis,becauseof its previousperformanceon SuperTyphocnDot severaldays before. With Dot,which also formedin lti latitudes,~ guidancerepeatedly,and erroneously, &we the systemequa-10°d.lfd! -110°L \ m I 1140° E 150° 160°Figwce3-22-5. 1900002Octobu 200 mb anatgh.ddep.itig the .LocaZionof the Tlllland theappa-Leu& co.?d.Lau.103

torward. AS a ~encet the ~ (Fig% 3-224) ~which indicatedsouthwestmvenent for E1lIs,washighlysuspect. Persistenceand climatologyfavoreda west to northwesttrack thrcughthe southernMariansIslands. As it turnedout, Ellis nnvedscuthw2at,passingwell souti of the islandof Gimm.In tiis case the CflKII guidancewas “right”for tie“=-” reasma. After-ttefactit was determindthe =f twaremanagersat Fleet Nuuerical~a~fiCenter that duringthis time the Prtit.iveEquaticn(PE)model was run insteadof the Navy Operaticx=lGlobalAtnwsphericPredictionSystem (N3GAPS).Sincethe PE mcdelwas heinispheric- not glckal- ~,when it received the data fields,only foundthenorthernhemispherewith a boundaryat the equatir.Thus, for a lW latitudesystemslikeEllis and Dot,CYKP!generateda spuriousvortexdue to the lackofsouthernhemispherefields. This causedthe forecastguidanceto fluctuatewildlyand drive the systemtcwardsthe equator. CYICM,subsequently,was mcdifiedto incorporatethe latestsouthernhemispherefieldsbeforerunning.13B12~ BEST TRACK-~----OTCM (1600002) 24HR● ..*●.” ●..--— OTCM (1 606002)●.* ...**..” 24HR %.‘—”=- OTCM (16 1200Z)*.” ~ -“””%.. 1.!,.71110972HR●✎✎✎✌8761‘u 2Qii6zs = ■ ■ ■ ■ m m ● ■ ■ ● 9 9 m n u138E 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154EF-iguhe3-22-6. Comp&on 06 the bebt tick ~ohELUA with OTCM guidance~ot the pehi.od1600002though 1612002Octobu.104

Fi.gwie 3-22-7. T&op.icaZ stO~ Ef.fiA440 w {~15 km)60&tk-AoutkeiUX Oi Guam. C- &u& de{ine tkcou-t6hwbounchvuj-inthe WI- &niticLe. A.LthougkEU d nw tke edge 06 the &vtaU1.teimagag, $keab&ncc 06 W in .tkewtiiexn6emiticle k.GW &t.tkeauticted ou.t@w a&$t due .totke d.oAepkoximitg 06 tke uppct cold&w @.tke,tto .tkewat(1$23252O&obet VW vi.6ua-t imagag].105

I1IOlno,fl!n.@Nm.r 1 , 1. ... —- . . . .. . .t ,,. . . ..1I,... . . ,.. . . . .a.. . .N.. Li. .-L. . .. . .#1“.L- . ..,.,. . .““~...- ‘ —o u--@ I , I I t.g“ ●-””t’. . . . . ,.8- --tm-!x .. A. . . . . . ...3....41“ :L.. ..l. V\. .. . .——-.. .@L. \.: J-, ” . .\&!r-F?s..- .Gs.,. . . .. . . .,......0..-2Iẓ. .$VIt4--..”:... . .‘“”’””’~. .-N” -l--- ..’ 1-{

TYPHCONFAYE (23W)Faye was the lastof four tropicalcyclonesto form in Cctcber,a nmnth that mrmally accountsfor five. Its formaticmwas unusualbecauseit wasmaskedby two other tropicalcyclcmesalreadyin progress.To set the stage,cm 21 &t&r Super Ty&ccoDot was moving frctnthe SouthChina Sea into NorthVietnam. The l-level southwesterlyflw, that tidbeen feadinginto Dot, exterdadacrossthe SouthChina Sea into the PhilippineIslands. A day laterwithDot over lard and dissipating- a fresh cutbreakof polar air frctnthe northeastmoved acrosstienorthernSouthChina S= and Philippines.The lwlevelconvergenceandcloudinessasacciatedwith thesouthwesterlymonscm flw persistedin the southernPhilippineIslands- (thiswas tie startof Faye).To the east in the PhilippineSee the remnanb ofEllis were mbadded in tie westernend of the neareguatorialtrcugh.Ellis had been finalld at(2006002). Although&void of centralcloudiness,itstillretainedsane cyclonicvorticity. As theremnants of Ellis driftedWest-northwes&mrd,satelliteimsgeryat 2212002revealsda resurgenceofits centralconvection.This renewed activityresultedin the issuanceof two TropicalCycloneFormationAlerts (TCFA)at 211200Zand 2203002. Thereinsinsof Ellis,howaver,did not regenerate.With ~con Faye a~roaching, KadenaAB onthe islandof Okinawa set TropicalCycloneC@iticnof ReadinessIII (at 2909002), and CotiitionII at3OO31OZ. During this pericdTyphoonFaye was at itsmaximumintensityof 100 kt (51tis) and beginningto accelerabsto the northeast(seeFigure3-23-1).The clcsest@nt of approschto KadenaAB was 90 nm(167km) to the southeastat 3019002. EVen thoughFaye’sintensityat this tireswas 85 kt (44fls),the maximmncbserve5winds at KadanaAf3were mly18 kt (9 lIiS) .Afterpassirgsouth of the islandof Okinawa,TyphconFaye ccmtinuedto decressein intensitydueto theincreased strerxgtk of the upper-level westerliesandthe associatedverticalwind shear. At3112002,17 hours after its clcaestpoint of approachto Okinawa,TyphoonFaye was dwngrade5 to a tropicalstorm. Faye continuedacosleratingto tie esstnortheastandtransitionalto an extratrcpica lcwwith an intensityof 45 kt (23ds) six hours beforethe finalwarningat 0112002.In conjunctionwith the ccntinuedinterestinEllis, an aircraftraccmnaissanceinvestigaticmmission-s scheduledfw the daylighthours cn tie23rd of Cctober. It locatedeast-southeasterly windsat 10 kt (5tis) and a ~ of 1009m% asscda=with the ‘ICFAarea;hcxwver,as the flightcontinuedta the west, it discovered35 kt (18tis) winds anda WLP of 1004mb associatedwith anothercircula-This prcqted the firstwarningon Trcpical~~&ssion 23w at 230000z. Up to this time therehadbeen nc menticnof this new systemin eith3r theSignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory (ABPWFGIW) orthe lY2FAassociati with Ellis. !l%eticpicaldepression,once identified,uovd northwes@ardUIX3erti subtropicalridge and SICXNIYintensified.It reachedtropicalstormintensityat 2312002.Later (2403002), TrcpicalStorm Fayemade landfallover centralLuzon 60 nm (111km) northeast of MSIWS(wM3 98429)with an intensityof 40 kt (21u#s).Faye trackedto the northwestacrcssLUZUI in 9 hoursand enteredthe SouthChina Sea as a 20 kt (10tis)trcpicaldepressionsane 130 nm (241km) northnorthwestofManila. Duringthe next 12-hours,Fayere-intensifiedover open water and moved cm to thenorthwest. As a consecp3nce& this xmrtlwasterlymovement,Hong Kong (V&2345005)went to l’rcpicalCyclcmeComlitionof Readimss III at 2503032.Althoo@ , the .?@=D W= f~St to ~ SkWlyto the rmthwest and inteneify, the presenceofa mid-latitudetragh over mainlati(!hinachangedthat scenario. Faye was upgradedto tropicalstormint-iQ’ late cm tie 24th and sl.cwedfurther.Actually,satellite,radar and b aircraftneccmnaissancefixesconfirmedthatthe systemccapleteda sndl cyclcnic10CP between2418002and 2518002.Then Faye turnednortheasWatd ard acceleratedthroughthe Luzon Straits. Aircraft-nnsissa~peripheraldata between2621OOZand 270000zahthemaximnnsurfacewinds to be in the rrmtheasten..semicircle. This was due to the increasedpressuregradientbe- tie lcw centralpressureof Fayead the ridge tm the northeastover Japan. Fcx thenext &o days, aftermovingfran the Straits,Fayeslowedagain,coveringonly 140 nm (259km). Theslcwingtrendwas acccnpaniedby intensification.Faye becamea typhom at 2818002.707

10:09?,.. . .t t T T/’”t’Q’ o”%). .+ . ..- ----- -.“:?-tl.TROPICAL.,. . - -.. , .- -,. . .- -.. ,SHAN< :HA!o, ,,, ,.. . %STORM GORDON 1, ~,,T1 1 1 , ! , !# 30? ‘c BEST TRACK TC-24W... .-.. , ,. -., .- -.. ,- -.. . .20 NOV-26NOV1985 “f-. . ..y . . ..- . . . -. . . . . ... . :/ MAX SFC WIND 45 KT,,. . . --.. . .- -.. . .- . . . . . ;MINIMUM 51P 997 MBSt1,. “.&:A-* I I 1t # I—,V“’’’rrr~o’”” ’i’” 105°-’2::~oo::::l:LEGEND++ 06 HOUR BEST TRAcK POSIT f“THONGK-GA SPEED OF MOVEMENT145°INTENSITY: POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE-_LLLL2cLi● ** TROPICAL OPPRESSION—. TROPICAL STORM— TYPHOONSUPER TYPHOON STARTz SUPER TYPHOON END+4+● **$EXTRATROPICALDISSIPATING STAGEFIRST WARNING ISSUEDLAST WARNING ISSUEDSAIPB08°DTGli2°SPEEDli3°INTENSITY2018Z 35521OOZ 3532106Z 3532112Z 3532118Z 3032200Z 3032206Z 3022212Z 30222182 3022300Z 3022306Z 3032312Z 30II“*20/12 z /, I 1*53 *z“t’”’t’”’’”tyPALAU IS 0t“”+GUM’,./t “.:.. t “t1’ .-1-.ewOLEAl,..,.. .11,.+-J+

TROPICAL S1’ORM~(24w)

—.. . . . --. ?...,- -- -, ..- -,:,-, .,, . . . . . ... .: -., ..- -.. . . ..- -., ..- -. ..!,. -.. .●. . . . . . . . . .,. .lJ.l -.. . . ..#’l.. ..l. .l. .L . . ..l. ..l. .. J-}“ f. . . . . . . .,- -.. , -.. .1,,. .T“’”’1 1. . . --.$-+ &+++F-., ~;.: ::, :-; ;,, ;,: : .+;:!.:::., . --- ----- -, , I ,IWO JIMA~: -50B:-’.:’.:. ~ : : ;A~c”3 -::” _/a ‘“” ‘! %5/ f. --19A: 5“+Ixl ‘ /’L1..NPH:ONHOPEBEST TRACK TC-25W17 DEC-24DEC 85MAX SFC WIND 100 KTMINIMUM SLP 948MBSLEGEND: :: :, ?! ~~~~ - - ;-“”: ;“;’> w.Q .,.. -.+ wnl’-F%8;OO;”:TRUK k &N:pE “’” ‘“” MAJ uRo/.. . -, :’-:-””*: ,@.o00.000000 c..eooo~- --,..,- -. ’.- -.,,.- ---- -,, , , 1 s , , , Q , t , , !!KOSRAE!’.!~ 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSITA SPEED OF MOVEMENTB INTENSITYC POSITION AT XX/OOOOZ. . . TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: :--m:::●●* TROPICAL DEPRESSION-- TROPICAL STORM~50 1 . ...1...4. , ~.-1f— TYPHOON,.. ... 155” - . . 1$0175””- SUPER TYPHOON START;,. ., ,’,,. -., ,.. ., .,,O SUPER TYPHOON END+++ EXTRATROPICAL1 t I I:: -:::: -:::’ _: ’.::+/{“03IL ,,. ,,.● ● * DISSIPATING STAGE,k FIRST WARNING ISSUEDM LAST WARNING ISSUED. ./6560/.,.“1,../_J.f- J-,. ..- . . ..- -.,1, i“ t, #, 1 I , , , , I , 1 $ r ,,,1 1/ ‘,/-2A?~. ; ; --,, ,, ... ,.- -. .,,. .,,, .,. ----- ..,- . . . . .. .- -,?4’. ” ““ “’”;:. .,. -.,. ..- -. ..,. .,. ,e. .-, ..- .’. . ..,,18 --- -- -- :1-*’,j/, z’ -- EN EWETAK ,0 - -“”””- -“’”.. . . . - -.. . .- -.. . . . . . .- -,:l+ICw. . . .-KWAJoALEIN - -,, . . . .,I . . . ..$ ,. a,.‘ 1“

TYPHOONIKEE(25W)Hope was a late-seasrntyptwcnthatoriginatedat 3ow-latitudein the near-aquatorialtrough. Itwas aided in ita ‘initialdevel~nt by the presenceof enhancedlu.wlevelrortheastnrmsconflew and anassociatedshear zone. TyphconHope presentedforecastproblem at two differenttis: first at thecrucialturningpoint fran a westwardto a northwardtrack;and after recurvaturewhen extratrcpicaltransiticmwas imninent.After TrcpicalStorm GordondissipatedoverVietnamcm the 25thof November,a winterwsatherpatterndcminatedthe northwestPacificarea. Convectiveactivitywasconfinedto 1* latitmiesin thenear~torial trough. The disturbance,that was tobaccrmTyphoonHcpe, was detectedcm the 13th ofDecenberbe~ ‘rrukand Pohnpei. The disturbancemoved in a generalwesterlydirecticnfor ths nextthreedays and shcwedsigns cf slew intensification.Figure3-25-1shaveHqe as a trcpicaldepressicmlocatedapprcximately 90 IKII(167km) east of Yap. Sy1718002,satellitedata indicatedthe disturbana?hadfurtherintensifiedwhilemewingwast-nmXimres_daidedby the effect of the shear zone to the north.Aa a result,the initialwarningwas issued. Between1718002and 1912002Decenber,Hops nmved northwestbeforecaningunder the full steeringinfluenceofthe mid-levelsubtropicalridge that ca~ thesystemto assumea westwardtrack.TrackingHcpe during the pericd 191200Z-201200Zwas facilitatedty tha.availabilityof four aircraftfixea and severalsatelliteeye fixes. TyphconHopereachedita maximumintensityof 100 kt (52 tis) at2006002 (seeFigure 3-25-2)just thirtyhoura afterthe initialwarning. After that,Hope decreasedslightlyin intensityand maintained65-75 kt(34-39tis) during the pericd2106OOZ-2312OOZ.After the 2003002warning,the One-wayInteractiveTrcQicalCyclae Mcdel (cYICM)shcweddefiniteindicationsof a recurvature@pa track,whereasbeforeit had indicateda generallynorthwestwardtrack.The 0_l?2Mia the primaryforecastingaid. The NestedTrcpicalCyclcnetkxlel(NlK14)didnot ahcw sigm of recurvature,but did indicateaF-igtie 3-25-1. Mope aA a .t.tophl dep@.&.ionappnoximdztg 90 M (167km] ed.t 0( Yap [UMO 91413].The ~hem zOnQ to Zhc notih appamntLy aided Hope’bdevat%ptnen.tby enhancing.th &xo-.Levetnomthti.t@W[170441ZVecembti NOAA VibUd .imgwy).111

FLgtic 3-25-2. TyphoonHope wilh o..t.@ge nagged egeneaz time 06 mtium inten.&Ltg 1200551Z Vecembm NOAAvi&llat .i.nklgvuj) .112

northerlytrack. As indicatedin Figure3-25-3,the~ yieldd gcod forecastguidanceduringthe perio5191800z-201200zand the NflCT4(Figure3-25-4)gavefairlygod guidanw duringthe pericd 191800Z-21OOOOZ. CYI_CF2 indicateda northwestwardtrackandr~urvature to the north-northeast(Figure3-25-3)afterabout 48 hours. NICM indicateda trackchangefran northwestto northward(Figure3-25-4). Thisguidancewas integratedinto the 2015002warning.The trackmade gccd synopticsensesinceit couldbeinterpretedas ~om Hcp movingaroundtie westernperipheryof the mid-levelsubtropicalridge.The forecastsheld with a curvingtrackthat startedtowardthe west-northwest,turnednorth,and becamenortheastat abut tie 48 hcur point.After 201200ZDecember,a sequenceof eventsstartedthatcausedmajor hack forecastprcblems.As has been @nted out earlier,after 2012002~ H* @@I to weakenslightlyand the eyestructuredisappearedfrun satelliteimagery. Thisresultedin dcubtsabout the exact lccaticmof thesurfacecenter of the typhoon. At 210842z, a 31 hour~rial began duringwhich no aircraftfixeswere madeon Typham H- due to aircraftnon-availabilityardmaintenanceproblems. Umler normalcom3itions,fouraircraftfixes wmuld have been made duringthat timepericd. Aircraftpositioningof typhconsis the mcstaccura&emethcd availableand is especiallyi.nprtantat major trackchanges.i3fter21OOOOZ,the CYICMguidancesteppedtherecurvaturescenarioand startedshavingjust ageneralncrthwestmvsment (Figure3-25-5). Itindicatsda more westwarddirecticmwith each run ofthe ndel. NIt24alsoindicateda northwardtiackuntil 21OOOOZ. After that time, it went to astraightWStward tiack (Figure3-25-6). Thiserroneousguidance (ie.the wesixardtrack)reflectedUlKY4and 171CM’sinabilityto forecastin a wintersynopticsituation. With specificrefernceto thenxdel,strongmiddle-t~~r levelwsterliesamarentbf -.caused an early termination of the mcdelIUZL OK (as in this case) misleading guidance.20’OOZ&12s 13+W135E+ 122 + 20N20106Z19n8zJR20Z1 ZOmz+ + + 15Nmlwz125E20M+21100Z20118Z2on2z20100Z130E13s+ 1911sz +15N+ + +,\< D 21moz ~/lsz mn2z Zomoz ~llalF.iwte3-25-3. One-wag&t@ztive TJLop.icu2CycloneMo~& (OTCM) {okecabkhck4 dofLthe p~d191800Z-210000ZDecembat~howi.ng a Re”cwtvaaMe tick.Figuhe3-25-4. #&z&tedTfiophztCycloneMode.t [NTCM)4oheca-4t tich {oh the pe.&i.od 191~OOZ-210000ZPecembti.kxoi.ng&viI@ good doaewt tick guidancein the domn o~ ZJUZCIUwtih not.thu.d movement.r’-’+F.igtie3-25-6. Mated TfiopicatlCqcLone Model (NTCM)~ohWa.4taw.idame{oh-the pa.iod 210bOOZ-220600ZWemmh.d thack.F.i.gme3-24-5. One-wayin.texativeTkopL2dUode& [OTCMI ioheca.bt.@uzcbA4ofithe pwiodCyclone113

The final factorleadingup to the forecastprcblemwas Hcpe’scontinuedvest-northwes~dmovementand decreasingdistancefrcmLuzon. Therewas a &finite need to warn of Hcpe’sapproachiftherewas a pcasibilitythat it was going to continuenmvingwest-northwestand not recurve.The cdinaticn of theseeventspresentsdadilemmafor the typhoonforecaster,who had to issuethe 2203002warning. Hc@ was close to the criticaltrack turningpoint. It was eithergoing to continuemovingwest-northwestandmake landfallm theeast ccastof Luzon,or startnmvingnorthwardandrecurveas had been forecastfor the past 36 hours.The forecasterwas presentd with the followingfacts: (1)Hope’spositionwas kncwnwithinanestimatedaccuracyof 60 m (111km) based m poorlydefinedinfrared~tellite fixes (nosatelliteeyefixesor aircraftfixesbeing available);(2)Hcpeappzed to be continuingm a west-northwestrack;(3)the numericalforecastmcdelswere indicatingastraightwestwardtrackand had not indicatedrecurvatureforabout 24 hours;ard (4) therewas adefiniteneed to warn Deparbnentof Defenseinterestsm Luzon of Hope’sapproach. After carefullyconsideringthe cmbined effest of these factors,theforecasterdecidedto significantlychange theforecastphilsophy and forecastTyphconHcpe titrackwast-northwestacrossLuzon into the ScmthChina Sea.Duringthe next six hcurs;hcwever,satellitefixes itiicatedthat TyphconHcpe was nmving tcarardthe north. A quick reccverywas n!adem the 2209002warningwhen the forecasttrackwas switchedback tome reflettingnorthwardmovement,follcwedbyrecurvatureto the northeast,ard decreasingintensityas extratropicaltransitionccmrred. Thewarningsover the next two days were accuratewith ageneralconceptof eastwardmovemnt with extratrcpicaltransition.The fors.sastrackshad Hopeacosleratingin sped and movingas far east-northeastas 27N 149E beforeccarpletingextratropicaltransition.In retrospect,an extratrcpicaltransitionwheretk tr~ical cycloneis shearedaway by -r-levelwei$ce”rlies and then dissipatesbelcw 20N would havebeen a more representativeforecastfor the finaltwcdays. Clirnatolcgically, this is what me wcwldexpsct to happenin lateDecamber. In the case ofTyphconHcpe, the 400ub troughwith nxderatewesterliesoversouthernChina was super-imposedovernderate-t~strong anticyclmic flew and cold airadvecticnat the 925 mb level. These featuresaredepictedin Figures3-25-7and 3-25-8. Based onthesepatterns,a shearingtype of extratr~icaltransition(follcwsdby a dramaticdecreasein thesystein’sassociatedwind speeds)with m significanteastwardaccelerationis to be expected. Shearing,decreasedwind speeds,and m significanteastwardacceleraticmis exactlywhat tippenedafter 2400002.Figure3-25-9shins the rsnmdntaof Hope. Therewerem reported&atha, injuries,or propertydamaueattributedto this lat&e.eaam t@ho&. - -Fiym 3-?5-7. 400 mb Numtical Lh?&Cional Ana-Ly&iA(NVA)a.t‘Z20000ZDecemba i.nakcdtia .i.tough ex,tti&mm nm 60N 130Eto Z2N 107Ewith modena-tewattzt-?-.iti notih o~ Hope.F.igusw 3-25-8. 925 mb N!fA ana@iA d ZZOOOOZAktoing modaa.te-$o-btiong an.tic.yc.hnic@W and co~dtL4Ladvati.an owu ~outhan China.114

115

“ti I0 (o, I1 &A+++h+.~, n-J%-.;+- + + -ttmnflti’j( .i..+-. g--- ; :.-?R ““Y’” ”””” Y t“”” T”’” 7L+-”z1 L 1--w---l..- -.. . .-.4 $ ,“o1 { t,.,, .- -.z.+ k ~. . . --.,..,+I. . .“. ... . . .+~ii$r;i-’!’:;!~~. . . . .,. ...--++l++-+%’-’Y ‘“ ‘bgiI \,L. I @-&, I (5 i? I I w, 1.. . 1’ ‘\. ..%-l&. .l&’+@l . .“‘k‘“”Y “P-Ṉ::;:::I: Y-’:,.S,1. U( \I . ti-’k%=%-’=+ Y < ,A “P-’-.3 --“””-’- -.’”””- ‘“”””- ‘“”””- ‘“’” ‘-’”” “o“+:; ;jf”f”:z”~;’.:;:; :;::.’: -:::: :;:::- -:; --::: ~,,,’.’O ~’”. ‘“” “’”’ ‘“”” ‘“” ‘“”’ “’” -I /’ s , I ln+- l\, I I I , I Iz,- 7 ‘aU. .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .116

TROPICAL S’KR4 IRVING (26W)F.tgam 3-26-1. Thop&z.L S.totm lfiv.ing waA one o~ IWOh.tgti@ant tiopicalcgc..tonti.to OCCLULin the month06 Decemba. lt j$OM-?d at J%bz WCA.t?JLWOld 0{ th~&xo-.&tLtadeneak-eqaalokial.Ouxtgh.The paoxim~06 the &xu-&wet?notihmt motioonand u.Mociatedw.i.ntmgdti ix ihe South China Sea mtiked Dwing’A.inLtialdevtipmen.t. A.iActa&tecontihance pfioved.Gt&tmmen.tat .& 10ca.t.ing the &xo-.!evelAcula,tioncentezand de6tibing the wind &ie&i o{ J%LA o{{-A Won .t.topiticyclone. DWI.i.ng’ ~ wn.@at dmeovemLzAZ and .Lao-Levet cwmUu.A bpw ate viAib.Leinthe (above).mte5?.iXei.magwy (190Z24ZVecemba UMSPv.ktd .GnagOq).117

3. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONESTrcpicalcyclae activityin the North Indianiticnseaeon,which normallyencompassesthe peak ofCcean was abovenormal. Six significanttropicalthe activity. Tables 3-6 through3-8 prwide a sumcyclcnes,allof tr~ical storm intensity,develqedas canparedto tlw climatolcgica1 mean of four.~ry of info=timearlieryears.for 1985 * c~rison withThese systemsoxmrred in the springand fall trams-1TASLE 3-6.1985 SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONESCALENDAR NUNBER OF MAHMUM BEST TRACKDAYS OF WARNINGS SURFACE ESTINATED DISTANCETROPICAL CYCLONE PERIOD OF WARNING — WARNING . ISSUED WIND KT - fM/S) MSLP MS TRAVSLED NM - (KM~,TC OlB 23NAY - 25MAY 3 8 60 (31) 979 515 (954)’TC O2A 29NAY - 31MAY 3 12 50 (26) 987 609 (1128)TC O3B 90CT - 11OCT 3 7 50 (26) 988 667 (1235)TC O4B 150CT - 160CT 2 4 50 (26) 987 296 (548)TC 05B 15NOV - 18NOV 4 12 55 (28) 983 843 (1561)TC 06B llDEC - 14DEC 4 11 50 (26) 987 1025 (1898)1985,‘TOTALS: 19 54TABLE 3-7.1985 SIGNIFICANT TROPIC!!, CYCLONESNORTHINDIAN OCEANJAN FEB MAR APR NAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL—— —— —— —. —— .— —1985 TROPICAL o 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 6CYCLONES1975 - 1985 .1-- .1 .8 .4 -AVERAGE.1 .3 1.1 1.4 .4 4.5CASES l-- 1 9 4- 1 3 12 15 4 50FORMATION ALERTS : 5 out of 8 Formation Alerts developed into significant tropicalcyclones. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts were issued for allsignificant tropical cyclones, except one, that developed during1985.WAFU?INGS Number of warning days; 19Number of warninq days withtwo tropical cyclones in region:Number of warning days with threeor more tropical cyclones in region:oo118

*glxUIP●POOOOOOOQOOP000110000000000000011000000000000001!-●WOOOOOOOOOW oOOPI0001●&ooowooworPo0000I 000000000000000● Oo1-oooooooo!-0000● 0000OONOOPOw00N)O●:wwowP+01-OP.:w++w..wowl-tQPP. POOOPPOOOPO*Ol+oom0mi

40° 45”30”=.Jo 95” +50° 65° 70° 75° 8fY’ 85” SD 95” Iou’,, .,. ., .,. . . . .25°&TC 02A --“’”’- -“”””,., . . . . . . . --, . . . -. . . . . . . . --.. , .- .,. . .. ----- . ----- . ----15“10°-.%“ “““’”’ ‘-”””: u. -- ...”,.. . .. . . . . ----- . .-. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . .,1‘“- “’”’”- ““””- ‘“”””- ““”’ -- ‘“””” ““”a- ‘“’”” “-”” ‘“””- “’”’- ‘“”..- -.. . .- -.. , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,., . . . . ..,. ..., ., :$:. . . .- -.. . . .. . . . .- . . . . .- -.. . .- -.. . , -.. . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . --.. .,.. . -. . . . .- -,, . . . . . .... , .- . . . . .- -.. . .- ---- .- -.. . .- -.. . -- -.. . .- . . . . .s, 1 1 , r t 4 1 I , t 1 1 [ , I 1 1 , , t&o.5“40” 45° 5CY 55° 6W70° 75” 80’sly90° 95° no”IFWC/JTWCGUAW 3142/62(NEW2-76)

122

TROPICAL CYCUXEOIBTropical Cyclone 03.Swas the firstof tvmcydcnes to form in the North IndianWean duringthe Spring transiticmseason. Althcugh only reachingan intensityof 60 kt (31tis), it was ona ofthe mxt noteworthystormsof 1985 due to tlx?trenwn—dous lossof life the cyclcnemused in Bangladesh.An estimated6,000~le died fran the storm,withan additional300,000~le lefthcmeless. Mxs.tofthe deathawere due to the storm surge,estinwtd at15 ft (5m), which completelyinumlatedmsny of thelcw-lyingislands (DeAngelis,1985).By late May, the Springtransiticmseaacnwaswell uderway in the North ItiianOcean. The southwestmonsoonhad rewed into tie southernBay ofBengaland was creatinga largeanountof convectionacross the region. LSte cn tie 20th of MSy, an areaof convecticmbegan to shcw sane organizationin thesouthwestBay of Bengal. This prcnptedthe SignificantTrcpicalWeatherAdvisory (ARE-iPGIW) b bereissuedat 2020302to ticludementionof thisdisturbance.During the followingnine hours satelliteimageryshcwed tie disturbancecontinuingto imprwein organization.As a result,the ptential forsignificanttropicalcyclcnedevelopmentws upgradedto “fair”cn the 2106OOZSignificantTropicalWeatherAdvisory. Subsequentdata continuedto sha SICWdevelopment.An upper-levelanticyclonewas formingwer the disturbanceand a Dvorakanalysiscf satelliteimageryestimatedsurfacewinds of 25 to 35 kt(13to 18 dS) . This resultedin tAe issuanceof a‘ICFAat 2221OOZaa the disturbancemoved inti thecentralBay of Bengal.Since the disturbancewas developingin themonsom trough (Figure3-03.B-1 ), there was samuncertaintyas to whethera claed suxfacecircu-F.tgww 3-018-1. The h.op.icd titu.tbance,whichbecame TILop.icd Cytine OIB d cotio.U&u2ng in theOag 06 t?enga.tĖ&Xnwted hwqjacewind a-t.thd tieate 25 k [13m/A] [220432ZMay DMSP vaka..!.imagehy] .123

laticmexistedor the disturbancewas stilla broadtrough. Analysisperformedby the Air ForceGlcbalWeatherCenter (AFGW2)m satelliteimageryat2304422quicklysettledthe questicaby estimatingsurfacewinds of 45 kt (23n#s), which suppxted aclcsedsurfacecirculation.Eased co this information,the firstwarningon TrcpicalCYCloneOIS wasissue3at 2312002.‘Iheforecastreasoning for TrcpicalCyclcneOIB centeredcn the presenceof the monsocntiough.The initialforecastcalled for the storm to remsinin the troughaml move h the north-northeast.Thisforest philoac@y proved to be cor=ct, d remaineiiunchangedthroughoutthelifetimeof TropicalCyclcneOIB. As a result,Bangladeshreceivednearlya 36 hcur warningof the cyclonesarrival. The onlyforecastingclifficultywith Tr@ical CyclcneOIB waspredictingits S-. Based cn satellitefixes ofthe pca ly definedcirculationcenterfrca nighttimeinfraredimagery,the firat threewarningsindicateda slcwerforwardspesd thanwas actuallytakimgplace. This was correctedearly cn the 24th,whenvisual aatelIite imageryrevealedthe lccaticnof thelw-level circulaticmcenter (Figure3-OIB-2).TrcpicalCyclae OIB continuedto intensify,reachinga pak intensityof 60 kt (31tis) at241800z. This intensitywas maintaineduntil landfallat 2502002just west of Chittagong,Sangl=esh(W!@41977). The cyclcnelest organizationfairlyrapidlyas it movcxlinland,but stillbrcughttorrentialrainaand extensiveflccdingto the higherelevationsof Bangladesh and eastern In5ia. The finalwarning was issued at 2506002.The fact that Bangladesh was given advancewarning of the Cyclmes approach was responsible forthe savingof thousandsof lives. TrcpicalCycloneOIB inflictedthe greatestdamageand death in thedelta regicnof the Ganges. Severallcw-lyigislandswere completelysuherged due to the 15 ft(5m) stormsurgewhich accanpaniedthe stozmatlandfall. In severalcases the only structuresleftstandingwere concretemulti-stmrysheltersbuiltafter tie 1970 cyclcne (InNovenix=1970, a trcpicalcyclonehit Ba~ladesh and kilkd an esthted300,000pecple). The islandsof Sandwip,Urir Charand Bholawere ammg the mst heavilydamaged.Furtherinland,heavy raina causedsevereflccdingalongBangladesh’sncrtheaatem borderwith Irdia.Gverflcwingriversaffectedtena of thousandsofpecple,with the Tripuraand ManipurStateaof IndiaEeing anmng the hrdest hit regiona.Reference:DsAngelis,Dick, 1985:under MBangladeshCyclone.t4arinersweatherLq, Vol 29,No. 3, PP. 141-143.124

Figtie 3-O IB-2. Tfiophtl? Cyd.one 01B lah than one&j ptia to making.2and@flovu Bangtadtih(240351ZMug z7MSPUdual Image4g}.125

40° 45”30°~o.%3 55° 60° 65° 70° 75” 80’ 05” wc . . /2?5°. . . . .-4. # .- -.. . .- ... .. . . . .-. . . . . -.. “.. --.. , .MINIMUM SLP 987 MBSt —H 06 HOUR BEST TRACK POSIT515°-.. . . ----- . ----- .- -..o.. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. ● * TROPICAL DEPRESSION-- TROPICAL STORM- SUPER TYPHOON START0 SUPER TYPHOON END+++. EXTRATROPICAL●; !I’i;;pti!r%~A&ED - -10° A LAST WARNING ISSUED t –. . ..- . . . ..- -.. . .- -.. . .i-- –““- -;’””- ‘“”’”..- -.. s.- -., . .9 .. . . . . . . . . . ----- . . . . . . . . . . -- .,. ----- . . . . . ..., . . . . . -.. ., I 1 1 t , , t t 1 1 # 1 1 1 I i , I t I t 1 1 1 1 !40” 45” 5P 55° 60° 65° 70° 75° 8@ 85° C30° 95\FWC/JTWC GUAW 3142/62.(NEW 2-76)

TROPICAL CY- 02,AFi.gwte 3-OZA-I . Tmpicd C@one 02A nea pea&.in&MAi..@. The tow-levelticu.b%xt cen.ta.i.Ajtixat the edge o{ the ce.JLOUZL&d MUAA (290533zMugVMSF’Vi.wa.ti.nlagenff) .F.igwte 3-02A-Z. Night-time moonli.ghl image o~ OMweakening 066 the wuz coaAt o~ IncUA. The Low-.teve.tc.dcculation cents & compLaZaiij expo~ed(301753Z Mw VW vi.4u.7.t iJnagVlgl.127

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TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B129

-. -\‘

TROPICALCYCI@IE04BDespitebeing in warningstatusfor only 18hours,TropicalCyclone04B had a long life. Itwas firstdetectedon 9 Cctober,almosta week beforethe initialwarningwas issued,as an area of pocrlyorganizd convectionin the SouthChim Sea. TheTrcpical Disturbance was developing in the activemcnsocm trough, midway between Trcpical Cyclone 03Bin the BSy of Serqal, and a disturbance in tiePhilippine Sea that tmuld soon develop into T@XXMCecil.Satellitefixesof an upper-levelcirculatimcenter,based cm the extrapolationof cirrusardconvectivecurvature,follwed the progressof thesystem55 it moved closerto Vietnam. For the nexttwo daya, the systemcontinuedto move west-northwestwardacrosstie SoutheastAsian Peninsula. Itemergedin the An&man Sea late cn tie 12th,stillapmrly organizedarea of convection. ‘llhe disturbancesvrsstwardprcgreaswasalso reflectedat thesurface,where a 10 to 15 kt (5 to 8 N#s), 1004nblw pressureomter was present.Duringthe 13th and 14th, the disturbanceturnadto the northwest,cr~sed the northernM&man Seaand enteredthe Bay of Bengal. Upper-level supportremained relatively weak and cliffuse. Pasiticning bysatellite imagery, hanpered by mid- to high-levelcloudiness, was accomplished cm these two days nmstlyby analysis of spiral band csxvature ad extrapolationof a poorly defined lcw-level circulatimcenter. With conditions favorable for SICW intensifi~tion,the minimum sea-level pressure drcppedfrcm 1004 ub cm the 12th to an estimated 1000 nb lateon the 14th. .Wrface winds shwd a correspcnd~rise, increasing to 25 kt (13tis). Early forecastson the 14th predictedthe systemwould cross theNorth Orissa-WestBengalCoast lateon the 15th.Early co the 15th, availabledata sh- littlechange. Syncpticdata at 1500002sbcmada 30 kt(15tis) surfacecirculationin the northcentralBayof Bengalwith an upper-levelanticyclcnelcca&daPProxfitelY 80 rum(148Ian)to the northeast. sinceearlierpositionshsd indicatedgreaterseparatimbetweenthe upper-and liner-levelsystems,this mayhave signalsdthe beginningof increas~ organization.Still,availablesyncpticdab S&xw2dnofurtherdecreasein pressurencx significantincreasein surfacewitis. on satelliteimagery,the Systemremainedbred and cliffuse, shwing littleinprovauentin organizationover the paat 24- to 48-hcurs(Figure3-31-1). Meanwhile,c@stal Banglzdeah,withfreshmenmriesof Tr~ical Cyclme OIB, which killedever 6,000people in MSy, braced for the currentcyclcnestillexpectedto hit the coast late cn the15th. Port cities like Chittagong(M 41978),Khul.na(WM341930)and otherswere aivisedto raisecautionarysignalsand fishingkm ts were a3vise5bstay near the coast.AS 1512002dab becameavailable,it was obvicuathat the systemhad, indeed,developd OV= the past6- to 12-hcurs. Sync@ic data frcm zhip6 ~ted arapidlydevelopingcycloneabout 180 nm (333km) south of Celcutta (WM342809). Mininmmsea-levelpressurewas estimatedto be near 990 * ard widehad increasedto 45 kt (23 u#s) . At 1515552, anabbreviated Trcpical CycloneWarningBulletinwasissuedby J’lW to reflectthe latestdab whichitiicatd a cyclonehad formed. Sy then,more portcitieshad hoistedwarningsignals,lw-lying aresawere preparingfor a pcssiblestormsurgeof 4 to7 ft (1 to 2 m) above sea-level,and ntxe fiahingbrats and trawlerahad sought shelter.At 1518002, JTW issti the first ccqlet.ewarning on lkpical ~lone 04B. Subsequentshiprqxxte had indicateda continuedfall in the meansea-levelpressureand COnfirmd surfacewinds of45 kt (23U/S). Satelliteimageryat 1516492shwsda dramsticincreasein organizationsud convectiawer the past 12-hours. fie strcmgeatCCSNecticnwasalreadycmshore,but the low-levelcirculationcenterremainedoffshoreand vsislocatedcm I& mxtheastedge of the strongconvection.By 1600002,l?rq?icalCyclcme04B had reachedmax.imm intcmsityas it made landfallm tk ccestof Indiaapproxima~ly 55 nm (102km) south ofBalasore (WM342895)ard ebmt 140 nm (259km)southwestof Calcutta. A largearea of strongconvectionremdned aescciatedwith the system(Figure3-04B-2), Hwever, shearingconditime hadalreadybegun to disruptverticalorganizaticmand,as the systemcontinuedto track inland,nme andnmre convecticmSI%3organizatia were lost. TiB2final=I@J was issuedat 1612002.At least 38 pople were killed,with war 200reported still missingaa late aa six days after the.$to’rm struckthe -St. Most of the missingwerefrcm the eest Indianstateof Orissawhere a villagewas completelywashed away by floodwaters. Heavyrain-itiucadflcodingcabined with storm-imiucedhigh tides to swaq offshoreislandscutting-offaccessto mre than 500 villages.131

132

F@ULIZ 3-04%-2. Thop.&a,t Cyct.one 048 jti.ta@?l .i.tmzde landddt OVGI ea.&te.hn India. Thcze & aokma.tk lJM?JLeaAtin ohganiztion ab compahed Zo the.imaguuj in Figuze 3-31-T [ 1603482 Otiobat VM.SPvibdimagehq).133

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TROPICAL CYCMNJZ 05BTropical ~clcme 05B formedaa a monsoa depressia cmthe southernperipheryof the monsoontroughapproximably 320~ (222kUI)e=t-acu~ast of Madras,India. The systemwasinitiallythoughtto be aasociati with a disturbancebatformalaI the east Indiancoast near Madras. Hmever, pcstanalysisofsatellitefixesand imageryindicatethat thefirstdisturbanceformednear tk *stem extentof thenmnaccmtroughcn 1112002,thenwent ashoreon abcut 1206002.Therefore,it was determine3that the first systemwas notpart of the disturbmce thateventuallybecauel’rqicalC@one 05B. At 1306002,A amll area of convectioncn thesoutlxxnextsntof the m2msocntroughdwelcped into a cyclcneOf about 25 kt (13tiS) . A ‘Km was issud at 131800Zaa thesystemremainedat 25 kt (13tis) and moved eastalcng thesathern peripheryof the nmnamn trough.A secondTCPA wasissuedat 1418002as the cyclcneremainedat tie sameintenai~ and ccntinue5to mwe east at akcut 9 kt (5&s) .TrcpicalCyclcna05B ftilly began to intensifyslightlywhenit reachedthe easternextentof the nmnaocntroughat about150000z. ~=Y, ~ sya~ s1* ~ -t 6 kt (3m’s), began to IIKWSnorth,and intensifiedto 35 kta (18nis) ,PXQ@@J m ls$LHCe of w firstwarr@ at 1506002.At 1512002, it wss went that l’rcpical Cyclone 05B hadbegun tomvetest toward Itia tier theinflwenceof~tomid-leveleasterliesto the north of the mcnacm trough. Atthis paint,The systemcontinued to intensifyslaly and beganto am2derate, tuning to the wst-northkest. Tropical~1- 05B reacheda maximm intensityof 55 kt (28tis) justprior to lafifal.1at 170600z,90 run(167I@ ncrth af Madras.NO reports of damage or 3.OSSof Iife due to Tropical@clme05B ware receiti.135

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TROPICAL CYCLONE 06BF.igtie 3-06B-1. TJLopieat Cyclone 068 ~otnwd in themonboon.ttougk,in&n&i@d, and moved notititiamdU@Wbb %he 8aLj06 8wga.L. In the b~ut image,the .?au-levct cumu&A &na that tie ~pi.zat%nginto-thec&tc.ulW-ion cents can be been along the Aou.thcz.nedge o~ the cen.tza.t denbe ovehcab$ [1304262DecembmVMSP v.WO..Linlagelg] .137

CHAPTERsouthW - Summary of South Pacific andIndian Ocean Tropical Cyclones1. GENERAL‘lTLsis the firstyear thatSouthernHefnisPheretropicalcyclonesare inclded in the hnual TrcpicalQclme Report. In retrospect,the J’l%Carea ofrespmsibility (~) was expandedon 1 October1980to includethe .~t~rn Hemisphere fran 180 degreeslongitudewestwardto the east ccastof Africa.0&ails cm trcpicalcyclaes in this regicmfor the”July 1980 to June 1982 are containedin Dierckaetal, (1982). For the July 1982 throughJune 1984period,referencethe WXWJIW ‘1’KHWYI’E86-1. Asin earlierreports,data cm tropicalcylrnesformingin, or riming into, the SouthPacific@em east of180 degrees,which is & NavalWesterncdeanogra~Center (NA~) lf3R,are includedfor campleteness.in USCIF321%CIFXST 3140.1 (series) for labellingtropicalcycl~s that develcpin the Scuth IndianOcean(westof 135 degreeseast longittie)is to dd thesuffix‘S” to the assignedtropicalcyclcnenmbe.r,while thoseoriginatingin the SouthPacific&ean(eastof 135 degreeseast lcngitule)receivea “P”suffix. The “P” suffixalso appliesto significanttrc.picalcyclcneswhich form east of the 180 dagressin the ScuthPacificWean. Alao, it shouldbe notedthat to encmpass theSouthernHemispheretKCplCalcycloneseason,which cecurafrcm JanuaiyIhxxqhApril,the limitsof each trcqicalcyclcneyear aredefinedas 1 July to 30 June. llms, the 1985SouthernHemispheretrcpicalcyclcneyear is fran 1 July1984 to 30 June 1985. (Thisis in contrastto theconventionfor labellinclNorthernHemispheretrooicalJIX prwides ~ sequentialn-ring for all cycloneswhich is baaed-en&e calendar-year-1-Smth Pacificand Scuth IndianOcean significant Januaryto 31 Decen&r - to inclde the aeascnaltxqical cyclmas. The cumsnt convention(asstated activityfrcrnMay tiough Weeder. )TABLE 4-1.SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN1985 SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONESTROPICALCYCLONE01s ------------02S BOBALAHY03s EMMA04P ------------05S FRANK06P ------------07P MONICA08P ------------09P DRENA10S CELESTINA11P ERIC12s ------------13P NIGEL14P ODETTE15S DITRA16P FREDA17S GERTIE18P ------------19S l%SITERA20S HUBERT21S FELISKA22S ISOBEL23S GERINRNA24S ------------25S JACOB26P PIERRE27P GAVIN28S KIRSTY29S LINDSAY30P HINA31P SANDY32P TANYA33S HELiSAONINA34S GFJ3TEL35S NARGOT1985 TOTALS :CALENDAR NUl@ER OF MAXIMUMDAYS OF WARNINGS SURFACEPERIOD OF WARNING WARNING ISSUED WINDS - KT (24/s)— —11 NOV - 14 NOV 4 50 (26)03 DEC - 07 DEC 5 1: 55 (28)10 DEC - 12 DEC 3 6 45 (23)12 DEC - 13 DEC 2 35 (18)23 DEC - 27 DEC 5 1: 75 (39)$; ~: : ;; g: 2 2 45 (23)3 5 65 (33)29 DEC - 31 DEC 3 5 45 (23)>> JAN - 13 JAN 3 6 50 (26)12 JAN - 21 JAN 10 20 65 (33)14 JAN - 18 JAN 5 8 100 (51)15 JAN - 17 JAN 3 4 35 (18)16 JAN - 19 JAN 4 8 105 (54)17 JAN - 22 JAN 6 11 100 (51)27 JAN - 31 JAN 5 9 70 (36)28 JAN - 30 JAN 3 6 75 (39)30 JAN - 31 JAN 2 4 55 (28)02 FEB - 06 FEB 5 9 35 (18)05 FEB - 10 FEB 6 11 50 (26)12 FEB - 17 FEB 6 11 55 (28)14 FEB - 19 FEB 6 11 50 (26)14 FEB - 21 FEB 8 15 50 (26)14 FEB - 25 FEB 12 23 65 (33)19 FEB - 20 FEB 2 4 35 (18)19 FEB - 26 FEB 8 15 75 (39)20 FEB - 22 FEB 3 6 45 (23)05 MAR- 07 MAR 3 5 55 (28)07 MAR- 14 MAR 8 17 115 (59)O8MAR-1ONAR 3 5 55 (28)13 MAR- 17 MAR 5 10 135 (69)20 MAR- 25NAR 6 12 120 (62)29 NAR-OIAPR 4 10 60 (31)11 APR - 16 APR 6 12 110 (57)11 APR - 14 APR 4 6 45 (23)12 APR - 17 APR 6 11 70 (36)98* 320*OVERLAPPING DAYS INCLUDED ONLY ONcE IN SUM.ESTIMATEDMSLP - MBNOTE: Nws OF CYCLONES GIVEN BY REGIONAL WAPNING CENTE ss (NANDI, BRISBANE, DARWIN,AND MAUPITIUS ) AND AF’PENDED TO JTWC WARNINGS , WHEN AVAILABLE.987983990996968990971990988975950996937942971966985996987983987987981996966990983930970920920979932988970BEST TRACKDISTANCETRAVELED - NM (KM)PERTH2026 (3752)1208 (2237)1375 (2547)845 (1565)569 (1054)464 (859)1322 (2448)948 (1756)612 (1133)1692 (3134)3030 (5612)874 (1619)2414 (4471)1701 (3150)1154 (2137)2035 (3769)432 (800)941 (1743)1612 (2985)2408 (4460)511 (946)1416 (2622)1298 (2404)756 (1400)2422 (4486)978 (1811)1539 (2850)1389 (2572)579 (1072)2469 (4573)2391 (4428)935 (1732)1769 (3276)483 (895)1111 (2058)138

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEANTROPICALCYCLONESThe 1985 year (1July 1984 through30 June 1985)was unusuallyactive,with 35 tropicalcyclones(seaTable 4-1 and pages 142 through146) reachingwarningstatus.This exceededthe totalof 30 trcpicalcyclcnesfor 1984 (1 July 1983 - 30 June 1984) andproved to be the busiest year to date for J’IW. sixtrcpical cyclcnes ocarred in the South Pacific eestof 165 degrees east longittie, which matched the longterm mean. The Australian area (105 to 165 degreeeeast longittie) accounted for 15 trcpical cyclonffi aaCcanpsred to the climatolcgical mean of 10.3 - fivemore than normal. Fourteen tropical cyclcwas develcpedin the South Indian ocean, which is almst twicethe low term mean of 8.4 qCIOXRS (See Tables 4-2and 4-3) . This representa the highest total for thisarea since at least the 1958-1959 -season (Gray,1979) . In this regard, Eteorological satellite s&-veillance of trcpical cyclones has been. u@&@climatologies since the early 1960s. (This metaorolqicalwatch frcm space detects trqical cyclonesthat might have previously gone undetected over theconventional dab sparae cceanic areas. ) ‘I%US, trcpicalcyclcne climatilqies should benefit frcmincreasedsumeillance fran space in sane areas,forexanple,the South Indianocean.cave t: Intensityestimatesfor southernhemispheretiopicalcyclcmesarederivedprimarilyfransatelliteimageryevaluation(Dvorak,1984) and framintensityestimatesreprted by other regionalwarningcenters. Only, in very rare instancesare theintensityestimatesbased cm surfaceobservationaldata. Estimatesof the minimumsea-levelpreasuxeare usuallyderivedfrcm the AtkineQNand Holliday(1977)relationshipbe- the maxinnnnsustainedone-minutesurfacewind and the minimumsea-levelpresswe (Table4-4). T?& relationshiphas kenshcwn to be representativefor tropicalcyclcriasinthe westerntkx%chPacificand is also used by theAustralianregionalwarningcentersti provideintensi~ estimtes. Hcmever,sin- thesepressureeatimab2sare usuallybased cm witi intensitiesthatwere derivedfra interpretiticnof satelli&@9erYr consid=able cautionshouldbe exercisedwhen using theseresultantpressurevaluesin futuretropicalcycle= work.TABLE 4-2.FREQUSNCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY MONTH AND YEARFOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEANYEARJUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR— —— —— —. —— —(1959 - 1978)AVERAGE* --- --- --- 0.4 1.5 3.6 6.1 5.8 4.7 2.1---- —------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---.19810001326 53319821001139 42319831001135 3519841001255 1:4219850000179 963MAY — JUN — TOTAL0.5---11000(1981 - 1985)AVERAGE 0.6 0 0 0.8 1.6 4.0 6.8 6.8 3.6 3.2 0.4CASES 300482034 3418162------000000024.7-----242525303527.8139* (G8AY, 1979)lW3LE 4-3. YEARLY VARIATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY OCEAN BASIN I(105E WESTWARD)SOUTH INDIAN[105E-165E]AUST=IAN(165E EASTWARD)SOUTH PACIFIC_ TOTAL(1959 - 1978)AVE=GE*----198119821983198419858.4 10.3--------1381211612141415(1981 - 1985) 12.0 10.8AVERAGE5.9 24.6----324251: 252 306 355.0 27.8CASES 60 54 25 139* (GRAY, 1979)

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L MILE ER;::100 500fIFigu,te 5-2. Fm?quancgd.d.tzibu.tbn o{ the 24-,48-,and 72-hou.tdomzcdt moti in 30 m incmmeti 60Ad bl.gI@& &op.&d cgtionu .inth~ OJcbtwi.nNotihPati&c &&&g 1$’~5.FORECASTERRORS (rim)24-HR 48-HR 72-HR——MEAN:MEDIAN:STANDARDDEVIATION:CASES:117 231 367107 202 29672.6 153.3 254.5477 356 241NAUTICALMILE ERROR50o!i’k:348” wHR! >z 10NAUTICAL MILE ERROR148

CHAPTER V - SUMMARY OF FORECAST VERIF[CATION1. ANNUAL FORECAST VERIFICATIONa. Western North Pacific CceanThe ~itions given for warning times ami thoseat the 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecast times wereverified against the final best track positions atthe same valid times. ‘The resultant vector and rightangle (track) errors (illustrated in Figure 5-1) werethen calculated for -ch tiopical cyclcne and arepresented in Table 5-1. Figure 5-2 providea thefrequency distributions of vectorerrorsin 30 nmincrementsfor 24-, 48-, and 72-houxforecastsof all1985 tropicalcyclcnesin the westernNcmth Pacific.A sunmaticmof the mean vectorZ@ right angleerrors,as calculatedfor all tropicalcyclcnesineach year, is shcwn in Table 5-2. A -riaa ofthe annualmean vectorerrorsfor all tropical.cyclonesas ccmparedto ttmse trcpicalcyclonesthatreachedtyphccnintensitycan be seem directlyinTable 5-3. The annualmean vectorerrorsfor 1985~ ~ed to ~ ten previcua years are gra@edin Figure 5-3.BEslWuxPosmoN149

‘24BLE5-2mwiuw mm FORECAST ERRORS (NM) FOR THE WESTERN NORTH ‘AclF1c~24-HouR 48-HOUR 72-HOURYEAR VECTOR RIGHT ANGLE VECTOR RIGHT ANGLE VECTOR RIGHT ANGLE1971197219731s741975197619771978197919801981’1982’1983*1984*1985*111117108120138117148127124126123113117117117647274788471837577797567726666212245197226288230283271226243220237259233231118146134157181132157179151164119139152137134 .317381253348450338407410316389334341405363367117210162245290202228297223287168206237231214* The technique for calculating right angle error was revised in 1981; therefore,a direct correlation in right angle statistics cannot be made for theerrors computed before 1981 and the errors computed since 1981.TABLE 5-3. WNUW Mm FORECAST ERRORs (NM) FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFICYEARALL24-HOURTYPHOON*— ALL48-HOURTYPHOON*ALL7 2-HOURTYPHOON*1950-581959170117**267**19601961196219631964177**136144127133354**2742872462844763744291965196619671968196915113612510511130328027622923741843241433734919701971197219731974104 98111 99117 116108 102120 114190 181212 203245 245197 193226 218279 272317 308381 382253 245348 35119751976197719781979138 129117 117148 140127 120124 113288230283271226279232266241219450 442338 336407 390410 459316 319198019811982198319841985126 116123 117113 114117 110117 110117 112243220237259233231221215229247228228389 362334 342341 337405 384363 361367 355* For Typhoons only while winds were over 35 kt (18 m\sec).** Forecast positions north of 35 N were not verified.150

s%WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST ERRORSYEARLY MEAN& MEDIAN1975 197b ?977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985nm00404407 w1— L m,i0030{360020(DOlzaw12710(m)01975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 W82 1983 1984 1985—MEANI.=. . . . . . .. ... MEDIAN151

. North IndianCceanThe pxitions given for warningtimesand thoseat the 24-, 48-, and 7Z-hourvalid timeswere verifiedfor tropicalcyclcnesin the North IndianOceanby the same methcdsused for the westernNortiPacific. It shouldbe noted that due to the lownunberof North 1ndianOcean trcpicalcyclones,theseerror statisticsshouldnot be takenas representativeofany trend.Table 5-4 is tie forecasterror summsryfor theNorth IndianOcean. Table 5-5 containsthe ZUInUSlaverageof forecasterrors for each year tirough1974. Vectorerrorsare plottedin Figure5-4(Seventy-twolmur for=ast errorswere evaluabxlforthe first tim in 1979). There were no verifying72-hourforecastsin 1983 and 1985.TABLE 5-4.FORECAST ERROR SUUWARY FOT THE NORTH INDIAN OCEANs IGT41FICANT TROPICAL CYCLONESFOR 1985. (ERRORIN NM)WASNING 24-EoUR 48-HOUR 72-2iOURPOSIT RT ANGLE NR OF POSIT RT ANGLE NR OF POSIT RT ANGLE NR OF POSIT ST ANGLE NR OFERROR —— ERROR WRNGS ERROR —— ERROR WRNGS ___ ERROR ERROR WRNGS ——— ERROR ERROR WRWGS ——1. TC 02s 33 14 B 134 29 42. TC 02A 24 14 12 61 38 9 115 -- 43. TC O3B 26 20 7 141 42 34. TC O4B 18 $ 45. TC O5B 47 16 12 188 71 8 369 109 46. TC 06B 21 16 11 113 57 6ALL FOSECAST : 24 14 12 61 38 9 115 -- 4TABLE 5-5ANNUAL NEAN FORECAST ERRORS FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEANYEAR24-HOURVECTOR RIGHT ANGLE48-HOURVECTOR RIGHT ANGLE72-HOUR—. VECTOR RIGHT ANGLE.971*.972*.973*.974*.975~976.977~978L979L9801981**L982**L983**L984**L985**232 - -224 101182 99137 81145138 1::122 94133151 ;;115 73109 65138 66117 46154 71123 51410292 112299 160238 146228 144204 159292 214202 128270 20293 87176 103368 175153 67274 127242 10943716719776238837112673404159k The western Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea were not included inthe JTWC area of responsibility until the 1975 tropical cyclone season.k* The technique for calculating right angle error was revised in 1981;therefore, a direct correlation in right angle statistics cannot be mad{for the errors computed before 1981 and the errors computed since 1981.152

c. South Pacific ad Indian Oceans‘he positicns given for warning times and thoseat the 24- and 48-houxvalid timeswere verifiedfortropicalcyclazesin the south Pacificand ScuthIndianOceansby the same methcdsused for the westernNorthPacific.Table 5-6 is the forecasterrorsummaryfor theSouth Pacificand IndianCceansand Table 5-7 containsthe annualaverageof forecasterrors for eachyear since 1981. Vector errorsare plottedin Figures5-5 (Seventy-t4mhouxs forecastsare not issuedin the southernhemisphere).FORSCASTERROR SG3DIARXFOR TRS S00’3SPACIFICAND SOOTN INDIAN OCSAN SIGNIFICANT TROPICALCYCLONSS FOR 1985. (ERRORS IN NM]rc 01s ----rc 02s EOBALAMrc 03s EMwAm 04P ----rc 05s FRANKrc 06P —--TC 07P SDNICATc o17P ----I’C09P DRENAK10S CSLESTINAWAF221NG 24-HOUR 48-5i0uRPOSIT RT ANGLJ3 NR OF POSIT ST ANGLS NR OF POSIT ~ ANGLE NR OFa ERRDR e m -S S --53 18 s 105 3s 6 1s0 7s 529 22 10 105 76 9 1s1 121 732 19 6 14s 46 4 42S 67 235 19 4 209 152 222 19 10 94 66 8 241 1s0 654 29 1 107 77 1 214 2.16 145 26 5 135 90 3 235 206 143 22 5 176 4s 5 259 57 121 91 55 12: 23 : 195 167 254 37 6 99 62 5 106 57 342 27 20 142 85 1s 228 110 13TC 11P ERIC 31 22 11 239 5s67 67 1 221 216K 12s ----K13P NIGELTC 14P ODDBTTETC 15S DITRAI’S16P FRSDAl’C17S GESTIETc lSP ----T-C19S ESITERATC 20S ROBERT2’C21S FELISBATC 22S lSOEELTC 23s GSRIMBNA7!C24s ----TC 25s JACOSTC 26P PIERRGTC 27P &71NTC 2SS KIRSTYTC 29s LINDSAYTC 30P EINATC 31P SANDYTC 32P TANYATC 33S HELISAONINATC L34S GRETELTC 35S 24ARGOT50 47 4 13s 3321 17 11 105 432s 14 10 9s 422s 16 9 122 5942 23 6 1s7 7118 19 4 152 10450 32 9 146 124642437335446110203162273929203032302837 1017 1111: 1026 1531 2376 414 1516 656 s16 1623 51s 139 1216 1021 1118 621 111521429 510 1451 400 3963 165 229 193 5s8 120 558 145 904 359 305267 s89 107 219 142135 105 1145 65 s 22017994407so1572031012181601096019210217s94 2.353 22239 366 13S6 5131 66S 1499 394 116S 1034 9110 1094 4119 1020137524211911241521731s22325654101945240323140491229129130506131131101591612351s41325s24373.17662459511201113212199992237 8ALL FORSCASTS: 36 23 332 13s 7s 273 242 133 199153

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN FORECAST ERRORSYEARLYMEAN1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985762YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIABILITY CAN BE VERYLARGE IN THIS REGION BECAUSE OF THERELATIVELY LOW NUNBERS OF FORECASTSINVOLVED AND THE RESULTANT INFLUENCEOF EXTREME VALUES ON THE YEARLY MEAN.1n-m4372921371972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985Figtm 5-4. AnnuaL mean uectofi f?htofib [m) ijOfid~zaopLcaL cgcloneh in Xhe Nozth Indian Ocean.154

2. COMPARISON OF OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUESa. GeneralObjective techniques used by J’IX aredivided into five main categories:(1) extra@ aticn;(2) climatolcgical and analcgtechniques;(3) rcdel ou@ut statistics;(4) dynamicmodels;and(5) enpiricaland analyticaltechniques;In Septenber1981,JIW began to initializeits array cf objectiveforecasttechniques(describdbelw) cm the six-hour-oldprelimimry best trackpositicm (aninterpolativepr~ess) rath- then theforecast(partiallyextrapolated)warningposition,e.g. the 06002warningis ncw s-M by cbjectivatechniquesdevelcpedfran the 00002preliminarybeattrackposition. l’hiaoperationalchangehas yieldedseveraladvantages:*tachniquea“canmw be requestedmuch earlierin the warningdevelcpmanttime line,i.e. aaaocm aa the trackcan bs approximatedby one or morefix positionsafter the valid time of the previcmawarning;*receiptof these &chniques ia ‘virtuallyassuredprior to the develcpnentof the next warning;ard*inproved(mean)forecastaccuracy. l%ialatteraspectarisesbecause~ ncw haa a nrmereliableapproximationof the short-termtropicalcyclonemovement. Fuxther,sincemost of the cbjeetive techniquesare biasedfor persistence,this -procedureoptimizestheirperformanm and prwideamore ccmsistentguidancea short-termmvenfent,indirectlyyieldinga nkxe aaurate initialpcsiticmestimateaa wall as lowring 24-h& forecast=mrs.b. Oescripticmof ObjectiveTechniques(1) Xl’F@— Forecastpositionsfor 24- and48-hoursare derivedfran the extensicmof a straightlinewhich connectsthe mat recentand 12-houroldpreliminarybest trackpoaiticns.(2) CUM — A climatologicalaid providing24-, 48-, and 72-hourtropicalcycloneforecastpositicns(andintensitychangesin tie westernNorthPacific)based upa the ~iticm of the tropicalCyclme. The outputia based won data recordsfrctn1945 to 1981 for the wasternNorth PacificCcean ard1900 to 1981 fm the North IndianOcean.(3) TPAC — Forecastpcsitionsare generatedfrcana blend of climatologyand persistence.The 24- and 48-hourpositio~ are equallyweightedbetweenclimatologyand persistenceand the 72-hourpositicmis ona quarterpersistenceand three qU5Ktersclimatology. Persistence ia a straightlineextensionof a line ccmnacting the currentad12-hcw old &W.itiOnS . Climatologyis based cn datafran 1945 to 1981 for the westernNorth Pacfic@sariam3 1900 to 1981 for the North IndianCcean.(4) TYAN 78 — An updatedanalogprogramwhich carbinesthe ewlier versionsTYFN 75 andINJAN 74. The programscansa 3O-yearcli.matolcgywith a similarhistory (withina specifiedacceptanceenvelope)to the currenttrcpicalcyclone. For thewesternNorth Pacific Ccean, three forecasts & poaiticnand intensity are provided for 24-, 48-, and72-hcurs : I?E12R- a mighted mean af all trcpicalcyclones which were categorized as “recurving” durirqtheir best track pericd; S1’RA- a wsighted mean ofa11 acceptedtrcpicalcyclcmeswhich were categorizedas moving “straight” (westward) during their besttrack pericd; TOTL - a weighted mean of all a3ceptedtr~ical cyclmes, including those used in the REXRand STP.A forecasts. For the North IndianOcean,asingle (total)forecasttrackis prcvidsdfor the12-hourintervalsto 72 hours.(5) CIXbKxs— A model outputstatistics(MX) routinebased cn the geostrcphicsteeringatthe 850-,700-,and 500-nblevels. The steeringisderivedfran the HMTRACK point advectiontiel runon Gl&al prognosticfieldsfran the ~IKk21PSpredicticmsystem. The I@S forecastis thenblendd with the 6-hcurpast mcvementb generatetheforecasttrack.(6) UIC14— (One-wayInteractivel’rcpicalCyclcmeMel) A c~semea h, ti_layeX in thevertical,prin!ativequationmdel with a 205 km gridspacingover a 6400 X 4700 km danain. The tiel’sfieldsare ccnputedarounda bcguaed,digitizedcyclonevortexusing~NumericalVariaticml Analysis (NVA)or N2GAPSprognosticfieldsfor the specifiedvalid time. The past nnticaof the trcpicalcyclcneis ccmparedto initialsteeringfieldsand a bias correctionis caqxItedSIX3appliedto the model. ~ NXAPs glcbalprognosticfieldsare uae5 at 12-houxintervalstoupdatetie model’sboundaries. The resultant forecastpcsitionsare derivedby locatingthe 850 nbvortexat six-hourintervalsto 72-hcurs.(7) m — (NestedTropicalCycloneFkdel)A primativeequationmodel with prcperti= similartothe UIU4. l%e N’KN differsby containing a finerscale ‘nested”grid, initializingon NVA analvsisfieldscmly, not containinga (Parsisteme)bias correction,andbeing a channelmcdel which runs indepatientof ~ pr~tic fields (notrecpiring@sting of its boundaries).The “nestedgridn coversa 1200 X 1200 km area with a 41 Iangridspacingwhich mcves within the coursemesh damin tokeep an 850 mb vortexat ita center.(8) TAP1’— An empiricaltechniquewhichutilizesuppar-trogmaphericwind fields to estimateaccelerationassocia~ with the tropicalcyclcnesinteractkm with the mid-latitudewesterlies. Itincludesguidelinesfor durationof aceleraticn,upper-limits,and probablepath of the cyclone.(9) CLIP — A statisticalregreasicmtechniquebased on climatology,currentintensityardpositionand past movement. This techniqueia usedas a crudemasure of real forecastskill when verifyingforecastaccuracy.155

kTABm” 5-7.ANNUAL MEAN FORECAST ERRORS (NM) FOR SOUTH PACIFIC ANDSOUTH INDIAN OCEANS24-HOUR48-HOURYEAR VECTOR RIGHT ANGIE VECTOR RIGHT ANGLE1981 165 119 315 2161982 144 91 274 1741983 154 84 288 1501984 133 73 231 1241985 138 78 242 133 ISOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEANFORECAST ERRORSYEARLY MEAN AND MEDIANNMNM500 500400 400300315274200144136100 ~ 1001981 1982 1983 1984 1985\—-MEAN‘l[’’-SIS MEDIAN156

(10) THETA E — m qirically derivedrelationship betwesn a tropical cyclcne’s minimumsea-level pressure (MSLP) an5 700 mb equivalentpotentialtemperature(Theta-E)was develcpedbySikora (1976)and Dunnavan (1981). By monitoringFSLP ati trends,the forecastercan evaluak thepotentialfor sudden,rapiddee~ning of a tropicalcyclone.(11) WIND RADIUS— Following an analyticmcdel of the radial profiles of sea-level pzessuresand winds in mature tropical cyclaes (Holland,1980) , a set of radii for 30-, 50-, and 100-knotwinds based on the tropical cyclcne’s maxinnnnwindshave been prcxiuced to aid the forecaster in determiningforecast wind radii.c. Testing and ResultsA capariscm of selectedtechniquesis includsdin Table 5-8 for all western North Pacific trcpicalcyclmes, Table 5-9 for all North Indian(kean tropicalcyclones,and Table 5-10 for the South Pacificand South Im3ianOcean ticpicalcyclcmes. In thesetables,“X-axis”refersto techniqueslistedvertially.The examplein the 449 cases availablefor a(hancgeneeus)ccqariaon, the averagevector errorat24 hourswas 123 run(228km) for CCI.YKSand 117 nm(217km) for C7TCM.The differenceof 5 nm (9 km) isshcwn in the lcwerright. (Differencesare notalwaysexact,due to canputationalround-offwhichcccursfor each of the casesavailablefor cmparison).(12) DVORAK— An estimationof trcpicalcyclcme’scurrentand 24-hourforecastintensityismade fran interpolationof satelliteimagery (Dvorak,1984)and providedto the forecaster.These intensityestimatesare used in conjuncticmwith otherintensity-relatedata and trexxisto forecasttropicalcycloneintensity.J1’WCcun=ntly uses TPAC, T?@T,TYAN78,CY2SPK?S, (YICMand NICM operationallyto developtrackforecasts.157

TABLE 5-9. 1985 ERROR STATISTICS FOR SELECTED OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN24-HOUR FORJ3CAST ERRORS (NM)JTIJC TOTL CLIP RECR COSM NTCW OTCM TPr?C CLIM XTRP HPfiCJTWCTOTLCLIPRECR1::1::e0.COSM 00NTCM1:$OTCM ?994.TPC)CCLIMXTRPHPAC-1:21:21:?:1230126-17 1::0 e‘a 00 00000 :izo-16 1:;123 29-2s 92i23-20 1::1239 1::12313 1::123 2910s 00 000 000 00 00 00 0 :0 00 00 0 0dNUMSEROFCASESY-AXISTECHNIQUEERRORX-AXISTSCHNIQUEERROR13RRORDIFFERENCEY-x0 00 000 0 /5310s10; 00006000 0S7 1% e!10s-1200000000 0e030949401s!; 000000@@a0o0 1%m;1%9: 30101101010527000 0 00000e 60 1%1::l%943s 1::10131 1%1320l;? 000:00 00 0 1%1::1%944030133101323013313:1%133a105 @@000@0000 2110016!5-3309994s30 101 30 i3z 39 133 30 99 048-HOUR FORECA5T ERRORS (NM)JTWC 9 242242 0JTIAC TOTL CLIP RECR COSM NTCM OTCM TPIIC CLIM XTRP HP6CTOTL 8 242 181231 -10 1;: 0CLIP L3 9 00 ‘aO00 OeeeRECR 6 0 00 90@e‘a@ 000 0 00Cosm 0 e 00 00Oe 00Sle00 00 OeeoNTCM 20: 17420?d 42eae 0000e 00 00 21:OTCtl 6 ~;~ 0 e 00 019519; !:?00 000 : 21 zTPAC 8 a: 18100 002S81+5 8 0000 : : 20:CLIN 2 24Z ‘ae00 0%330 82 3&5 &00 ’30 00 31:XTRP 8 24: 181 ‘a:2432$; 46 0Oe0000 00 19Z216 a240-2? 19E216-7 Z2Z216loe 302216-20 28;19:JTWC - OFFICIAL JTWC FORECASTTOTL - ANALOC (TYAN 781NTCM - WSSTED TROPICAL CYCLONS WODELOTcw - ONE-WAY TROPICAL CYCLONE NODELTPAC - CLIM AND PES31STRNCE BLEWDCLIM - CLIMATOLOGYXTRF - 12-HOUR EXTRAPOLATIONHPAC - MEAN OF XTRP AWD CLIM19s 18928 1*3 @195 12 3e:112 3$$ :2: 309195 1s9 12 309 12 2278S 2:$ 38 227 -81 22? e..JTWC 000 072-HOUR FORECAST ERRORS (NM)JTIJC TOTL CLIP RECR Costl NTCM OTCM TPfiC CLIIITOTL 0 0 3500 ‘a 35; 0CLIP e 0 0 0 0 00 ‘a @ 0 0 0RECR 0 0 0 0 0 @ 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0COSM 0 @ 0 0 0 00 00 0 ‘a 0 0 0 : 0 0 $NTCM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @ o 0 0OTCM 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0e 00 00 0 0 0 0 00 e ‘a 0 0 0TP!-IC 0 0 350 0 0 ‘a@0 0 0 0 04890 0 48; 138 0 0 0 0 @ o : 0 e 0 48; 0CLIM o @ o 0 0 0 ‘0 0 0 0 0 06390 0 63; %: 0 0 0 0 0 0 @ @ 0 @ 63; %: 63: 0158

TABLE 5-8. 1985 ERROR STATISTICS FOR SELECTED OBJECTI~ TECHNIQUES IN THE WESTERN NORTHPACIFIC OCEAN24-HouR FOREcAST ERRORS (NM)JTIJcJTIJC TOTL CLIP RECR COSM NTCfl OTCM TPRC CLIM XTRP477 117* NUMBER X-AXISOF TEC211iIQU8HPACHPFtC 46S 117 4s6 1 y1 zO 3 120::; 121 f:;0436 132132 0 TECHNIQUE DIFFERENCE421 132 4s7 124 ERROR Y -x124 -? 124 0338 133 ;:: 12:124 -2~;; 130-12430122131-8448le2Zq ;~~ 1230::; 11654721221220431160131294S01591:: & 123404s9159116434721601223847s1s91s9e429128131-14471291236:2: 12344S61Z7115124791291218f~: ::: ::$ 128e131 447 123-9 12e -2:;?1:; 456 115119 3470 121 472 159120 e 12t3 -38472 128 ;:: 120120 -7 0.48-HOUR FORECAST ERRORS (NM)JTwC :;? 2310JTWC TOTL CLIP RECR COSM NTCM OTCW TP*C Cinl XTRPTOTL ::: 231 36S 24:18 249CLIP .:2.: 232 :;; 2s1 268 25323 2 2S3 0.~—.HPftCRECR ::: 231 339 24734 268 20:$: 255 ~:: 26816 0COSM ::: 236 346 2s2 2S4 2S4 327 267@ 24@ -11 247 -6 240 -2SNTCM ::: 234 286 252 267 2S3 266 27S-2 231 -20 231 -20 235 -39OTCM ::: 232 348 248 253 ::: 326 2652 234 -12 228 239 -25TPAC 348 231 359 ::;235 4 236222 252 334 267235 -16 238 -28CLIM ::: 231 361 248 263 2s2 33S 26265 301 52 301 48 304 37xTRP 347 231271 40359 2;; 262 2;? 333 26;268 266 262HPAC 347 231 ::: 248 262 252 333 267234 3-12 235 -16 236 -29355238~380281233239-S294231231e34S2362351280227227e~~~ 237 288 2310 237 6350 2~~ 289 231298 308 76348273237352872672313534s234237-228723s231436023423403522332340~~~ 23503s4 234 ~~~ 23S 372 299299 65 64 299 0352 234 369 .234 37e 298 37’2 26826S 32 269 34 268 -29 262 e3s2 234 369 234 370 292 370 268 370 233231 -2 233 e 233 -64 233 -34 233 0JTLJC TOTL CLIPdJTWC 241 367367 0TOTL 22.8 363373 11CLIP 168 3“57357 0RECR 217 371408 37COSM 226 373367 -SNTCM 186 ~&345OTCM 188 3S8397 40TPAc 232 369374 5CLIM 234 367421 54266 374374 @190 370367 -2249 375413 38253 377386 8208 374353 -21212 364398 342s8 376378 1261 375426 5119S 368368 @181 373417 44186 370406 36194 370348 -20147 349389 40188 371369 -172-HOUR FORECAST ERRORS (NM)RECR COSM NTCM OTCM TPfiC CLIM250 414414 0242 41239s -1s196 4123s7 -55198 407400 –6245 413372 -41263 380380 0207 387 216 352353 -33 352 8213 370 168 329 222 399403 33 393 64 399 0256 382 206 351 214 400 268 373375 -7 379 28 380 -20 373 0190 369 246 413 258 381 210 352 216 399 268 3;: 271 422415 46 418 5 421 40 427 75 434 35 423 422 0159

TABLE 5-10. 1985 ERROR STATISTICS FOR SELECTED OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES IN THE SOUTH INDIANAND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS24-HouR FORECAST ERRORS (NM)JTLIC TOTL CLIP RECR COSM NTCM OTCM TPhC CLIM XTRP HP6?CJTWC ?73 138138 0TOTLCLIPRECRCosrl,NTCMOTCMTPQC,CLIM.xTRPHPaC1961120%%00021314421313923513223618423611612s 198-1s 1120 00 00 00 00 00 0140 1674 133135 %7s4 13s13s 197-1 125134 198so i7Z!134 197-17 111::; 134 197-i? 124ElNUWBER214 138138 0OFCASESY-AXISTECHNIQUEERROR199 140 :;: 137 237 132133 -6 -s 132 0X-AXISTECHNIQUEERRORERRORDIFFERENCEY-x112 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 140 213 138 237 1:; 238 18360 9 o e 0 0 0 186 4s 184 46 183 183 011: e o 47 9 0 9 :;: :;: e14 138 236 132 23? 184 :;: 1160 0 0 0 0 0 113 -24 116 -1s 116 -67 0112 0 0 0 0 0 199 140 213 138 ;:: 132 ;:~ 184 ::; i16 ::; 1311.3 : 00 0 0 9 133 -6 130 -7 0 -52 1s o48-HouR ForacAsT ERRORS (NM)JTWC TOTL CLIP RECR COSM NTCM OTCM TPFIC CLIM xTRP HPFICJTIJCTOTLCLIPRECRCosmNTCMOTCM199242148232:001632691S82920@z428225 1607 2+2o 0@ 0a 00 00 00 0252 13618 2s6243 137so 2882420: : :c1 00 0 0e @e e 00 0 0 0 0 0 00 00 @ 0 $30249 0 ‘a 0 0 0 e 1747 4 0 0 0 9 0 274243 0 0 0 e 0 0 i 474s 0 0 0 ‘a 0 0 29727402:: 16929s2950JTWC - OFFICIAL JTWC FORECASTTDTL - ANALOG (TYAN 78)CLIP - CLIPPERRECR - R2CURVER [TYAN 78)C08M - COSMOS (MOS)NTCM - NESTED TROPICAL CYC!LONEMQDEL~~ - ONE-WAY TROPICAL CYCIJ)NEMODELTPAC - CLIM AND PERSISTENCE BLENDCLIM - CLIMATOLOGYXTRP - 12-HOUR EXTRAPOLATIONHPAC - MEAN OF XTRP AND CLIMwTPOCCLIMxTRPHPAC17?2671783s1181251177266244 15923 258244 160108 34?244 1597 6!34243 15923 2S7243 0 0 0 0 c1 o 15915 0 0 0 e 0 0 271y? @ ‘a 0 0 0 0 1600 0 0 0 0 @ 353243 0 0 0 0 0 @ 165-8 0 0 0 0 0 0 258243 0 0 0 0 0 9 i 591400 0 0 ee 27027; 163268268 164E5 3s1269 169-10 251292’242926029s-43i89 268268 0189 268 190 351352 84 3s1 e188 269 189 352 195 2592s8 -l@ es? -94 259 926: 164 292 i88 269 189 3S226S -2s 268 e 26? -84189 2S7 189 267267 10 267 072-HOUR FORECAST ERRORS (NM)JTUCTOTLCLIPRECRCOSMNTCMOTCMTP9CJTWC TOTL CLIP RECR Cosri NTCII OTCfl TPAC CLIM00 :@ @ 1a? 3s10 0 351 00 0 0 0 e @0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 @ 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 @ 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‘a0 0 104 3s7 o 0 0 0 0 0 128@ 0 394 3’7 0 0 0 0 0 n 41so 101 34e 0 0 8 0 0 0 107L3 : 456 116 0 0 0 @ 0 0 4560 0 i 22 351 0 @ 0 0 0 0 1240 0 424 73 0 0 e 0 e 0 4324150405 124 47251 472 0410 121 462 146 43321 427 -33 433 ‘aCLIM @ 0 122 351 0 0 @ 0 124 410 121 462 146 433 146 50603 152 : : 0 0 0 0 505 95 497 35 506 73 s06 0160

CHAPTER VI - APPLIED TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH SUMMARYThe follc%vingarticlesdelineatethe extentofthe researchprcgramat the Naval EnvironmentalPredictionResearchFacility (N7! VENVKW)RSC!HFAC)dedicstedto supportingthe operationsat JointTyphocmWarningCenter (J’17?.2) . There are threemajorresearchdepartnmts at NA~ FSCM?AC,each contributingbthe -all program;researchcn currentand futuretrcpicalcyclme models is performedinthe Nwrical McdelingDepartment,the ‘hcticalApplicationsDeparbnentccrductsstatisticalapplicaticmst@ies,and the SatelliteProcessingdDisplayDepartmentdavel~ ccuputerinteractivetechniques.TROPICALCY- AIDS (’K!AIDS) EOR SATELLITE-DA~~SIFK AND DISPLAYSY= (sPADS)(Tsui,T. and A. Truschke,NAVENVWUDRSCHFAC)-oS is a system residingon SPADS ccmpsad ofall existingtrcpicalcyclcneutilityroutines. Fbstof thesercutinesuse digitalsatellitidata togetherwith the environmentalinfomaticm to assistforecastersinmaking a lowcost and timely trcqicalcyclcneforecast. ‘K!AIDSincludestw trcpicalcyclonemovementaids,one intensityforecastingaid,me satelliteimage rotationutility,ad a 16-imageIcc@g displayutility. ‘he nwvementforec at aidsare the satelliteIR patternregressionroutine—ADAPT forecasterand the nationalHurricaneCenter’sClimtXkgy-Persistence (CLIPER)routine. Theintensityforecastaid uses the trcpicalcyclomspiralcharacteristicsto predictthe grcwthof thestorm. ~ia intensityforecastingprogramalso providesvaricuaimagedmncemnt routines.W3RlTiPZCIFICTROPICALCYCLCNECLINA’IW4EY(Taui,T. ard R. filler,NAVENWRE)RSCHFAC)A tropicalcyclone climatologyfor ~ NorthPacifichas been develcped. Dab used for thewesternbasin were taken fran the JTW2 TrcpicalCyclcsxellata13aaeand covereda pericd of 40 years,1945-1984. Easternbasin data spannedthe 34 yearpericd 1949-1982and were cbtainedfran theCcxudidated World-WideTrcpicalC!yclcneData Pese,NationalClimaticData Center,Ashville,WrthCaroltia. Storms for both basinswere sortedraxordingto nuntlVdayof the year into twenty-f=31-dayoverlappingpericda. For each pericd,fourchartsare supplied:1) actualstormpaths;2) meanstormpaths; 3) averagestormspeed;and 4) storm~~ and frequency.ADAPTIONOF GUM(Taui,T. ad A. Truschke,NAVENVPREX3CHPAC)CSUM is a statisticaltrcpicalcyclonepredicticmmcdel develcpedby 14atstmmtoand Gray (ColoradoState University), and has been in@emented into theJIYC canbinedARQ procedure. CSUN incorporatesclimatology,persistence,ardthe Navy OperationalGlcbalAtnmsphericPredicticmsystem (~) 500 ti heightfieldsto forecastup to 72-hourtrcpicalcyclonenrwement. In the cperaticm, trcpical cyclcnes arestratified cn their pceiticn relative to the500 nbeubtrcpicalridge or theirmtions to betterdefinethe environnwmtalinfluencescn the cyclones. The72-hoJrforecasttrack is segmentedinto three24-hcurtime framesto permit the applicationof@ated persistenceand syncpticdata relativeto tienew cyclone~ition. Testing of the optionalversion of the mcdel is w ufierway.ENVI~AL INFLUENCESON TROPICALCYCLGWEINITNSIFICATION(Merrill, R. ard W. Gray,ColoradoStateUniversity)examining the cbaerved~=-Astudytrxeric environmentalflow differencebeintenaifyingandnon-intensifyingstorms& beenccmpleted. Upper-troposphericwind observationsare-sited for 28 tropicalmimes accordingtotheir intensitytetiencies.A rotatd ccordirmtisystembased on the outfla jet locationis used sothat the asynetricflcw structureis preserved.Littledifferace is &served in totaloutflow~ thesynopticscale. Hmever, intensifyingstormshave alessconstrictedcutflw with evidenceof lateralCmnectl“ona with the surroundingflow.EVALUA’MCNOF JIW OBJE?l’IVE AIDS(Tsui, T. ad R. tiller,NAVENVP~MCHmC)Evaluationof all JTW2 cbjective aids is mwunderway. The canplete evaluation of all aids willincltie 1978-1984 perf onnences. Performances since1967 will also be investigated; the study herwillbe limitedto theseaids *sting in the J’lW2data file. The evaluaticmwill expand fran theforecasterror (meanvectorerror)to cross-track/-along-trackerrors,track/ape& errorsand timingerrors. In dditicm, the evaluationwill concentrabcn the ccmbinedperformanceof the leastforecasterrordistanceand the nest consistenthealingforecast.Statisticaltests cn the significanceof theresultswill be carriedout to claxifythe meaningofthe performanceclifferemes.NAVY TAC1’ICALAPPLICATIONSCXHDE (~AG) VOL. 6, PIW.TI:TROPICALWEATHERANALYSISAND FW@CAST APPLICATIONS(Fett,R., NAVENWREDPSCHFAC)Studieswere canpletedfor this volume,besedlargelyon Defenae MeteorologicalSatelliteProgram(EWSP)data. The volumecontainsa nuntxxof newresearchresultsincludinga methodof preciselylccatingthe positionsat equatorialtroughsbysatellite. Studiesare presentlybeing finalizedinpreparationfor the printingprocesswith,anticipateddistributionof Vol. 6, Part 1, in the autumn of1986. Additicmalstudiescurrentlyunder inveatigaticnin Vol. 6, Part II, relateexclusivelyto thetrcpicalcyclcneprcblemand will be publishedat alaterdate.‘IliEADVAtKH) T133PICAL CYCUINE PSXIEL (AlU4)(Hcdur, R., NAVENVPRIIXWXFAC)The Advanced Trcpical Cyclone Mctlel (A’IU-1)isbeing develcped using the recanmendatioms mde at thetropical cyclcne workshop held in Monterey,California (January, 1985). First, the NavyOperational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System161

(KX7APS)is the frameworkfor the AlCM. second,theA’ICMwill have a uniform resolution of 80 km or lesswith at least 10 levels. Third, the dcmain of themcdel will cover tie entire WESTPAC area. Using thisapproach, the A’ICM will only need to be run once perwatch, since all tropical systems can be included inthe mcdel dcmain. This also allcws interactions toCCCUK between storms during multiple stormsituations.The current wxk cn the A’lCM is geared towarddefiningthe initialConditiom of the large-scaleflew and the circulaticmof the tropicalcyclcne.The large-scaleflW will be definedby runningtheATCM with an updatecycle wery wetch. This approachhas two advantages. First,all featuresforecastbyAICM are retainedfran me forecastto the next.Second,the firstguess fieldswill be ccmsiatentwith tie AlC31mcflelequaticne. Two approachesarebeing examinedfor the initialtropicalcyclonecirculation.The firstis to allow tie mcdel todwelcp the storm structurein a no-flcw environment,and then to add tiis circulationinto the I.arg&scaleflew. The secondis to let the mcdel spin-upthetropicalcyclcme(s) with tie large-scaleflcw usingconventionaldata. Encouragingresultswere cbtainedusing the lattertechniquein tie wstern Atlantic,in the fall of 1985.(Eleberry, R. L., Chan, J. C.-L.,ard J. E.Peak, NA~ )l’heperformanceof tropicalcyclcneforecastaids tier differentenvirormwmtalconditionsand forvaricuscyclcmecharacteristicshas been studied.Bsaed cn a rating system for crms-track and alongtrackerrors, the One-way ‘rrcpical ~lcne Mcdel(CY1’CFl) and the Nested ‘rrcpical Cyclone Mcdel (NIW)generally produce the met accurate forecastsat72-hours. ?lqiricalOrthcgoml Furction (FJ3F)-lFS of the wti fieldaaroundwesternNorthPacifictrcpicalcycloneshave been usd to deriveastatistical-synoptic trackpredictionscheme. The72-hourerrorsare ccnpetitivewith the J’IW officialforecasts. Furtherimprwsinentis cbtainedbystratifying the situationa accordingto past stormmtion . A similar improvement can be cbtained if thew’~ ~F’s are used to stratify the situation.An cbjective technique has been tested for estimatingthe warning ~iticn of the tropical cyclone fran thefixes receiv~ during the previous 6-hours. Weightingfactorsfor differentobservationalplatformsandfor the tinw of the fix have been incorpora&. Thecbjectivepositionsare generallysuperiorto theJ!lW qerational positionsduring 1981 and 1982 andare nearlyas gccd aa the JIW during1983. Thecausesof the an-loos trackguidancereceivedduringSuper ‘ryphconAMY (1983)have also beenexamined. The intensityand enormouscirculationofthis super typhocnare suggestedas the reasonsforthe failureof the cbjectiveaids duringa pericdwhen Abby was movingalnnstnormalto the steeringflew.THE NAVY T%WWAY ItWERACTIVE ~ TROPICAL CYCT.CNE~ (-)(Fiorino,M., NA~FAC)Anew versirn of the N1’C?lwaa tested inaresearch male during the 1985 WESTPAC seascm. ‘III.&version (wWM3. O) has three features: 1) on~ayinfluence boundary conditicms p the course grid withforcing fran the NOGAPS wid forecasts; 2) A vortexand heating specificat.h procedure that tisures amore realistic storm evolution; and 3) A pr-forecasttification of the steeringflow that accountsforthe observe5currentmotion.The operationalversicmof the NICM was changedin the earlypart of the seasonbased on experiencewith NK!M3.o. The new ~raticmal versicn (NR2.M2. 2)differsfran the 1984version (NlY2N2 .1) in that thebias-corr=torwas activatedand a seriousprogramerrorwas corrected,which affectedthe interactionbetweentie fine and coursemeshes.Althoughthe time-deperdentboundaryversia ofNICM3.Owas shcwn to be superiorto ita channelmcdelequivalentand to NICM2..l,the ccmparis- of NlKY12.2and NlCt43.0revealedlittleadvantageto the mwversim of the mcdel duringthe 1985 season.162

ANNEX ATROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND FrX DATANORTH PACIFIC CYCLONE DATABEST TReCK iJeRNING _.24 HOUR FORECFISTt!?RORSERRORSPOSIT) POSIT W~ND DST W&,4D POSIT W;~D D5T UJ:D4.1 1s6,10,0 O.@-0. 0. o 0.04,5 1s5,60,0 @.0 0, -0. e 0 0,0 0, –0, 0,4.9 1s5.113,0 O,e 0, ~: :; 0. 0 0.0 :: -e. e.5.4 154,6O.e 0,0‘a. 0 0,0 -0.5.9 1s4.15.9 154.1 3::0. $: 4 1s0.8 4s, 199, 12;6.7 1S3.26.1 1s3. s 3s 5!: 0. 7. 5 1S1.3 5#. 317. 2s8,9 152.07,4 1s2.5 40, 47. 0. 9. 2 149.8 5S. 298. 3fl9.2 1s9.9 9.3 1S0.9 40, 5, 14, 7 147.5 55. S9 3s10.S 149610.6 149.8 30, 1:: 0. 1:. 2 146.6 4!3: 133, 20.12.0 148.S 11.8 148.7 2s 17.0 0.@ -0, 0.13.8 147.9 13.4 148. @ .?s 25. :: :: 0 @.@ 0, -0, e.15.5 148.1 14.8 147,4 2s 5s. 5, 0 e.e e. -0. e.17.2 148.4 16. S 147.8 20. 42, 0. 0: 0 e.e 0. -0. e.PO:e.ee.o0,00.%o.eo.eO.@0.00.0e.eo.e0.00.072 HOUR FORECtISTERRORSirT U&D &T !MNDe.ee.k3 0, -e:0.e e, -e. ;:0.0 0. -0,0.0 g, -e, e:o.e -e. e.e.e e: -e, e,e.e e. -e, e,e,O g, -0, e,o.e -e. g:e,e e: -0.e.e e, -e. ;.e.e e. -e. .fiLL F~;~~~STSURMG 4B-UR 72;:RAVG FORECR5T POSIT ERROR 29. 2:; 484.WC RIGHT #iGLE ERROR 1:, 155, 0.AVC INTENSITY MRGNITUDE ERROR 25: 4@ e.WC INTENSITV BIAS 1: 25, 4! , 0.NutlBER OF FORECRSTS 9 5 0DISTCINCE TR6VELED SV TROPICnL CYCLONE IS 97S. NMF4vER4GE SPEED OF TROPIC&L CYCLONE IS 14. KNOTSTVPHOON;4W;LE OVER 3S KTSLIRtiG 413~HR 7S7~HR0.0, 0. e. e.0. 0. :, ‘e.0. 0. e,e e %’ eTROPICAL STORM ELSIEFIx POS1TIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 1SfiTELLITEFIXESFIXNoFIxPOS1TIONDvOReK CODE COPIMENTSSITIS%sX6%7i:81:111.2x ;:1s161718::212223PCN 6PCN 8PCN 6Fcti 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5Pcri 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6Tf). S/0. S INIT OBSULCC FIXULCC FIXTi.O/l. eINIT 08ST2. w2.0 /Dl,5z?7HRsULCC FIXULCC FIXT2. 0/2,0 /D1 ,@/24HRST2. L3/2, e /SO, O/22HRSULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXPGTWPGTIJPGTIJPGTWPGTUPGTuPGTIJPGTIJPGTL!PGThlPGTLIPGTUPGTWPGTWPGTL.IPGTL!PGTwPGTUPGTWPGTWPGTUPGTIJPGTUFIIRCRI?FTFIXESFIXNOyy FIX F LTPOSITIONLVL790MBHGTOBSMSLPIWX-SFC-UND M(?X-FLT-LVI,-UND I?CCRYVEL~BRGZRNG DIRJVELZ2RGZRNG NaV/METEvE EVE OR IEM- E’r’E TEHP (C) llSNSHAPE DIFIMjToTION OUTX IN< DPzSST NO.:3062238 5.8N 154,4E 15e0FTt372128 10,3N 150.4E lSOOFTe7z355 10,2N 149.6E 15c30FT1002ie03i003es 33e 70 0s0 33 330 7e 10 530 170 94 f:: 29 i7e 94 6 1030 050 9’? 32 0S0 9S ie 10+2S +2S +24 28+23 +25 +34 .S6 ;+24 +24 +W 27 2SVNOPTICFIXESFIxNO.~;~E FIX INTENSITY NEARESTPOSITION ESTIMIITE D6TQ (NM)CONMENTSxi97060e S.ON iS4. OE 03s 2145 91339 91334 91348NOTICE - TME r3STERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE ANO NOT USEO FOR BEST TR61CK PURPOSES,163

BESTTRACKPOSIT12,4 134.012,1 134. ?11.8 134.411.3 134.610. S 13S.29.9 135,99.4 136. ?9,2 137.59,2 138,09,3 138.39,4 138.49.? 138.59,9 138.79.7 139. e9.S 139.19..2 139.09,2 138.89.2 138.69.2 138.39.3 137.9W~~D POSIT0.0 e.e40 ‘a. @ o.e4s @.@ 0.050 e.e 0,055 ie.7 i3s,05@ 10.6 i3s, e4S 10,6 13S. e4s 9,e 137.54s 9,4 138.440 9,6 138,64e 9,6 138.74e 9,5 138, s40 9,7 !38.435 9.9 138.13S 9,S 138,33e 9,e 138,83@ 9,1 138,925 9,1 138,925 9,1 13s.920 9.a 138.8EEEiE3fiLL F;~W;;STSWR~ti ;;13:R ;~;HR&VQ FORECIIST POSIT ERROR 8?.eVG RXGHT $lttGLE ERROR7: 3e. 51. 25.WC INTENSITY iWiGNITUDE ERROR4, le. 12. 19.4VG INTENSITY 81AS 10. 1:. 1:.tiUMSER OF FORE CeSTS 1:” 12lBISTfiNCE TRFIVELED BY TROPICnL C.VCLONE 1S S07 NM0, e. ‘a.9, $ e. 0.9 e e,+VERAGE SPEED OF TROPICAL CVCLONE IS 4, KNOTSTROPICAL STORM FABIANFIX POSITIONS FOR CVCLONE NO. 2SATELLITEFIXESFIxPoSITIONACCRVDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITE4.2N4,7N4.9N4,8N8.~N8.9N9.4N8,SN9.8N10.4N10.8Nl+:;;7.SN8.ONlE.lN8.3N12.9N13.9N14.4N12.8N14.. 8N14.9N14.6N12.8N12.9N13.6N14.4N11.2N12.lNSI.8Nil,2N10.4N9.8N10.I3N10.ON14.lN12.4N12.6N12.3N11.7N11.7N11.lN16J.6N10.4NiL3.3N10.9N10.4N10.7N10.6N16.4N9.ON9,3N9.4N9.SN9.SN9

$1,6N 137. @E$I,2N 137.4E$I,2N 137.3E$),3N 137.6E9,3N 137,7E$). IN 138.8E2.9N 139.3E9.ON 139.4E:).2N 139. .2Efl,lN 138.8ES). lN 138.9E9,7N 138.8E9.2N 138,6E9.2N 138.3ESI.2N 137.7ES),3N 137.8EPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 3PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 3PCN 4PcN 3T3.@/3,5“T1.5/2,0T1.s/1,5/lJO.5/22HRS/111.5/25HR5/SO,O/24ilRSULCCULCCEXPEXPExPULCCEXPExPEXPFIXFIXLLCCLLCCLLCCFIXLLCCLLCCLLCCfil RCRQFT FIXESFl>POSIT 1fJN7;;;8 @BS !WX-SFC-LIND MRX-FLT-LVL-LIND ACCRY E’t’E EvE OR IEN-M5LP \, EL., BRG/RNG DIR/VEL/8RG/RNG NI?V/MET SHfIFE DIw’wT13TIo NEVE TEMP (C)OUT/ lN/ DP/SST; K%%3 0923554 10!3.3475 1022176 102344? 112312il.2N 134.9E1(1.4N i35. OE!) ON 137.4E:],3N 137.8E$l,3N 138 6E{1.4N 138, SE9.aN 138.8E1@90$89$92S90992S92109035 300 4560 240 2S2S 32@ 554s 2?0 9@4s i?2@ 503S Ii@ 302@ 14a i2@910 3B 240 45 3 le310 60 240 ~~ 10 S050 25 32@ 83.?80 47 230 15270 so 220 so 1: :340 25 220 95 10 2250 31 140 20 8 4+29 +27 +24+24 +2S +z5 27+24 +25 +2s 28+24 +2s +2s+25 +2S+25 +2S .?8+26SVNOPTICFIXESFIX :;:E FIXNOPOS1TIONINTENSITY NEARESTE!3T1MWW DATfI (NM)CONNENTSio12@0A 1lElO@O: ii216@0ii09e0s 1110006 1112007 ii150a8 121?00045e4s04504S045045040133091413 9120391413 91?0391413914139141391413 912039141391413NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (x) lNDIc(iTE FIXES UNREPRESENTfiTIVE QND NOT USED FOR BEST TRFICK PURPOSES.....165

EEElBEST TReCK WQRNINGPOSIT WIND POSIT U;ND11.5 13i.9 30 0,0 0,011,9 132.0 30 0,0 0.0 e:12,3 132.0 30 0.0 0,0 0,12.7 13Z,1 30 0.6 0,013.1 i32,1 3S 13,0 131.8 3::13.6 132.1 35 13,3 131,7 40.14.1 i32.1 3S 14.2 132,0 ~~.14.S 132,1 40 14.6 132,014.9 i32,1 45 14,6 13,s.1 45:15.6 131,8 Sa 15,2 13.?.1 45,16,3 i31,4 50 16,1 131.7 45,17,2 130.8 55 17,1 130. S 45.17.8 i3e.2 65 i7,8 130.3 SS,1S.6 129.6 6S 18.7 129,8 Ssi9,e 129,3 70 19,2 129,3 6S19.6 128.9 80 19.8 128. s 7e2e.7 iza.a 90 20.6 128.6 85.21.5 129.2 100 21.5 129,0 i~~,22.4 i3e.e too 22.4 130.1 100.23.4 13e.8 9s 23,2 13e.9 95.24,B 132,e 90 24.7 132.0 85,26.e 133.4 80 25.2 133.0 75.27.6 13S.i 75 27.4 134.8 70.Z9.e 136.8 65 28.9 137.1 65.30.3 138.4 60 30. S 138.7 60.3e,7 139.8 55 31.6 140,1 60.24 HOUi7 FORECIIST40 HOUR FOREC&ST 72 HOUR FORECfiSTCRRORSERRORSERRORSERRORSDST lJ&W F9S1T IJ;:D DST u&iD POSIT LUND DST U;;D POSIT WND DST U;UD-’a e.e 0,8 -0. O.e 0.0 -0. o.e e.e -e-a. e. 8.6 @e e. -$3. 6, 0.% e,o e. -0. 8. 0.0 e.e -e, ::-0, e. e.e e.o ‘a. -0. e. 0,0 0.0 e. -e. e, o.e 0.0 :: -e.-0, @. e.e 0.0 -e. e, e.e 0,0 -0.e:19, 0, 14.5 131.1 4:: 63. e, 16,2 129,9 4:: 98. -2;: l?:: 12;:~ 4:: l;:: -se29. 5, 14.9 130,8 5’a 72. ~. 16.6 1?9,6 50, Ize. -15. iB.3 i28,3 4S. 199. -55.a, 10. 16..2131.1 Ss. 18. S. i8,0 129,4 S0. 60, -20. 19.6 138,.2 4S. 196, -SS,5. 16.6 130.9 S2. 36, e, 18.4 129.3 se. 75. -30. ee.t 12s,2 4s. iHs. -se.i;: 0. 15.S i31,3 SO. 1S2, -15, 16,7 13(3,0 SO. 249. -4e. 18,4 128.4 Se. 433. -4e,30, -5, lG.6 13%,5 4S. 16.2.-2e, 12,5 129,9 4S, 184. -SS. 2e,9 1.22.1 4S. 464, -3S,21. -S. 17.s 13e,4 45. 9s. -2s. 19.2 128,9 4e. 2e2, -6e. 2e.3 127.6 40. 6e@. -35,6. ‘le. 19.1 129,0 5s 31. -25, 20.6 126.9 Se, 274, -45, S2:: 12~:~ 4:: 6S7. -S’0,6. ‘le. i!e.t 127,8 6S, 67. -2S, 22.2 126,8 6S 326. -25.-e.13, -le. 21.S 126,8 62..134. -35, 23,9 127,S 65, 345, -1S, e,e e.e e. -w. ~:12, -S, 21.8 127.2 2@. 169. -20, 24.3 128,~ ?0 422, -5. 8.9 e.e e. -e. .13, -10. 22.S 127,2 80. 2e6. -1S. 25.5 ie9.4 6S, 447. ;. e.e ~:g e, -e.::13. -S, 23.S 128.2 SJ: ;~i?: -5, 25.9 i31.2 6S, 463, e.e e. -e.ii. e, 24.5 13e.5~e, 2;:: 133,8 6; ; 362. le: e.e a.e e. -e. e.6. 0. 2s.9 134.4 as. ie9. w,e.e -e. e. e.o e.e 0. -0.0.13. e. 2S,6 135.4 7S. 162. e.e ~:g -e. g. e.e e.e e. -e.6. +: 3::: 133:: 55. :g: ~:: e, e.e:: -e, e.e e.e e, -e. :;25,e. e.e e.e -e. e: e.e e.e -e20. -s e.e e.e 0. -e. g, 0.6 e.e ~: -e. e. e.o e.e ~: -e.17. e, e.e 0.0 e. -0. e.e e.e 0, -e. e. 6.9 e.e -e. ::20. e. 0.e e.e g. -e. 9: e.e O,e e. -e. g. e.e 0.0 ~; -e. g.56. 5, e.e o.e -e. e. e,e e.e e, -e. . e.e e.e . -e. ,hLL FORECfiSTSlJRNG ;;;HR ;;I:R ~;;HRfIVC FORECfiST PoSIT ERRORi?.WC RIGHT .WiGLE ERROR ::; 79, 65:hVG lNTENSITV MoGNITuDE ERROR :: 25. 43.(4VG INTENSITV BIfiS -2. ;; -::. -4:.NUM2ER OF FORECfiSTS 22DISTflNCE TRAVELED 8Y TROPIC(+L CYCLONE IS 1464, N?4fiVER&GE SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 1S. 1 e KNOTSTVPHDONS AIHILE OVER 3S KTSW# 24-HR ~~W&HR 3;;-HR112.9: 2.5. 79. 65:13. 25, 43,-z : ;;. -::. -4:.22TVPHOONFIX POSITIONS FORGAYCYCLONE NO. 3SIITELLITEFIXESFIXNOFIXPOSITION ACCR’T’ DVORAK CODECONMENTS SITEi3456z1;111213::16x :;% 19* %’22* $:X 25262728X 29* %’32333435363738394a4142::45464748495051525354* :2S7x :!8.3N8.6N9.3N9.lN9.iN9.lN8.8N9.8N8.SN9.3N9.2N8.8N9.ON8.9N9.2N9.lN8.9N10.3N12.3N11.SN13

6@61!2;6566676869%’7273%%787980818283848586* ::8990919293949s%981%1011021 m104105196le7%lesie9%;;:1 16!113114115116117118119iae121122123124125126i272216002217422~174,222210022214822221723@00023004923930@23044623060k323090023091S231028231200231330231600231731231800232ie023215!72321S32400@024@e292403S!0240600i?406172409F1024ie322412002413e924i6e02417202417202421002421e524231025@00025015025030e25e42425e6ee25e90e2se94s251ee725t20e251249135160e25171e.25i71e25i8ee252e44252iee25224626ee0026e41326e6ee26e9ee26092426e9432612002616e026i8ee26222127eee0i2703e027e60e2803e016.7N17, SN16.7N17,5N17,8N17,4N18. ON18, lN18.5N18,5N18.5N18.7N18.7N18,9N19.2N19.3N19.2N19.9N19.5N19.8N20. 2N20. 2N20, 4N2e . 4N21 .ON21 .5N21 .6N21 .8N22. lN22. 4N22. 6N22. 7N23. ON23. 3N23. 4N24. 5N24. 5N24. 7N25. 2N25. 2N2S . 4N25. 6N27. lN27. 3N27. 4N27. 8N27. 9N29. eN29. 4N3e. eN29. 7N29. 4N29. 3N30. ON3e . 5N3e. 8N3e. 8N30. 9N3e . 7N30, 9N31. lN30. 3N3e. 6N29. 9N3e. eN3e. eN3e . eN29. 2N131.5E130.5E130.7E130.6E131. @E130.5E130.2E130.9E130. OE129.8E129.8E129.8E129.5E129.6ElZ’9.4E129.3E129.2E128.9E129.7E128,9E128,7E129,2E129. eE128,7E129. eE129.2E128.8E129.8E130, SE13e. lE129.9E130.6E139.7E13e.8E131 .4E132,1E132.3E132. lE:::.:~132:6E132,8E134. lE134,8E134.2E13S.3E135. lE137. OE137.7E138. lE137.9E137.9E138. lE138. lE139. OEi39. lE139.5E140.9E14e.3E140.6E141 .7E14e.9E141.5E143.2E143.6E144.5E144.9E147.4EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 15PCN GPCN 3PCN 5PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 2PCN 4FCN 4PCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 2PCN 6PCN 6PCN 1PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PcN 2PCN 2PCN 1PCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5;:: gPcN 2PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6~:fi :PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4T3.O/3,0/DO.S22HRST4, L3/4.0 /S@. 0f23HRST4.@/4.0-/Dl.0.

BESTTR&CKI,IARNINGPOSIT16.6 112 616.3 112,316.0 111,516.0 110.916.0 110. S16.2 110.216.4 110.116.6 110.416.6 lle.716.9 111,117.6 111,218,4 110.919.1 110,319.4 109,3u;~D POSIT u&,iD0.0 @.@2s 0.0 0.0 0.25 0.0 0.e 0.25 0,0 0.0 0.30 16.7 110.2 30.30 16,5 109;9 30.30 16. S 109.3 30.30 16. S 109.1 30.30 16, S 110,0 30,30 17.2 11b3.6 30.3@ 17.3 110.8 30,30 17. S 110.8 30.30 18.0 ll@.5 3L3.25 19.4 110,4 2sfiLL FOREC(lSTSURNG ~;;:R 48-HR 72-HR6vG FORECF3ST POSIT ERROR 213, 0.&VG RIGHT !4NGLE ERROR :?: 110, :, e.aVG INTENSITY MAGNITUDE ERROR e. 4. 0.RVG INTENSITY BIAS 4. a; 0.NUMBER OF FOREC$ISTS 1:” 6 z ‘aDISTFINCE TRAVELED B’f TROPICfiL CVCLONE ISf4vER.4GE SPEED OF TROPICAL CVCLONE 1S441. NM6. KNOTSTYPHOONS WHILE OVERURNG Z-4;HR 4~~HR0.e. 9. @.e. 0. ‘a,e. :. 0.ee3S KTS72-HRe,e.e.0.0TROPICAL DEPRESSIONFIX POSITIONS FORTD04WCYCLONE NO. 4SRTELLITEFIXESFIXNO.TIME(z)FIXPOSITION9CCR’fDVOR6KCODECOMMENTSSITEi32*6*78d1112131415* HX 18x 192021222324252627%30:;x %x 353637%X 40PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PcN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PcN 5PCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PcN 3PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN SPCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T1.5/l.5T1.s/l.5T1.5/i.ST1.5/l.ST2.0/2.0T2.5/2.S-/DlT2.5/2.5T2,0/2.0T1.@/l.0T2.0/2.5T2,5/2.ST1.5/2.0/DO.S/20HRS.O/24HRS/S@.0/20HRS/LIO.5/E7HRS/SO.0/28HRS/LIO.Sf26HRSINIT OBSINIT OBS EXP LLCCExP LLCCINIT 08SINIT OBS ULCC FIXEXPINITULCCULCCEXPEXPINITExPEXPEXPExPEXPEXPLLCCOBSFIXFIXLLCCLLCCOBSLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCSYNOPTICFIXESFIXNO.FIXPOSITIONINTENSITY NEfiRESTESTIMATE DAT6 (NM)COMMENTSi341706091709001712001718c3L316,0N 112. OE16.2N 111.8E16.3N 111,3E16.5N 111.OE020 03%59985 S998102el01s59985 S998102902001s04s599855998SS998159981NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (x) INDIC9TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED .FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES.

BESTTRQCKPOSIT14.2 133.514.2 132,514.5 131 s14,8 130 61S.1 129.815.4 1+29,015.8 128.016.2 126.716.7 125.517.8 124,518.7 1E!Z,819.1 121.219.2 120.519.6 119.72@,3 118.920.9 117,921.4 117,021.5 116. Zala 11s.62,3.2 115.422,8 115.3?3.3 i15, e23.7 115,124,0 114.824.2 114. SLJIND ,gos IT25 30 35 14,5 0.0 ~3~;;45 1S,1 139.865 1S.4 1?9,36S 15,6 1?9,175 16.2 12s,385 16.2 126.990 16,9 125.79s 17.7 124.595 18.3 IZZ.785 19.2 121,.280 19 4 120.180 19,7 119 790 2@.,S 119,0100 21.1 117.99S 21.4 116.990 21.7 116.185 21.9 11S.180 2Z.1 115.275 22,8 115,350 23.3 115,240 23,8 115,130 23.9 115.125 0,0 0.0IRNINGLJIND0,3::4555.65.70.85,909595.90.95.85.90.100,100.90,80,80.50.se40.30.0,f4LL F$N7t7~~STSWRNG 48-HR 7E!-HRIWG FORECFIST pOs IT ERROR 15. 137, 380, 630.FIVG RIGHT 6NGLE ERROR 11. 1!:. 347. 57; ;6VG lNTENSITV MAGNITUDE ERRoR 12:Avc INTENSITY BIAS -:: -s 10.NuN8ER OF FORECX45TS 22 19 13 11DIST6NCE TRAVELED 8’f TROPICAL CVCLONE 1S 130S NMfiVERfiGE SPEED OF TROPICC)L CYCLONE IS 9. KNOTSTVPHOON~4~.llLE4~~~ 3S KTSww#72-FIR142, 380. 528,11. 112. 347. 490,15, 1?. 16,-:: ;: ;,21 1:”FIXTYPHOON HFILPOSITION5 FoR CYCLONE NO. 5S9TELLITEFIXESFIxPOSITIONRCCR’fDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITE5.5N lS1.5E5,3N 151. lE4.5N 151.7E4,8N 151.4E5.2N 150.8E5.IN 151,0E4.4N 147.4E3.3N 147,4E5.8N 140.8E17.3N 137.5E5.IN 140.4E6.3N 146.9E8.lN 144.3E7.lN 144.2E11.@N 139.7E10.3N 139.7E10.6N 139.4E11.ON 139.OE11.4N 139.lE12,4N 139.lE12.6N 138.4E13.7N 139.lE12,8N 138.3E13,4N 136.lE12.6N 137,0E15,9N 135.9Ei5.8N 136.lE15,2N 134.9E16.3N 134,4E13,4N 133.5E13.6N 132.OE14.ON 133.2E14.ON 132.6E13.9N 132.3E13.7N 132.3E14.ON 132.3E15.lN 132.6E15.ON 131.lE14.5N 130.9E15.lN 130.@E15.9N 130.2E14,9N 130.5E15,5N 129.9E15,7N 129.9ElS.7N 129.2E15,7N 129.5E16.2N 128.2E16.2N 128.3E16.2N 127.4E16.3N 127.3ElS.6N 126.6E16.8N i26.OE16.6N 126.2E16.5N 125.7E16.7N 125.9E17,4N 125.3E18.ON 1?5.OE18.lN 1?4.8E16.8N 124.8E17.8N 124.2E18.lN 123.7EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN ‘GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PcN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 5PQN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN SPCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PcN 1PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 1PCN 1PCN 3PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6TO.@/0,0T1 ,0/T1 ,9/T1 .0/Tl,O/T1 ,5/T1 ,0/T2.0/2,0T2.63/2.0T2.0/2,0.0.6.0 /SO.O/2414RS.0T2,5/2.5+/D@,5/24HRST3.0/3.0T3,C1/3,0T3,5/3,sT4.5/4,sT4,0/4,0;;,;;:,;T4:5/4:5T4,S/4,5/Di.O/28HRS/DO.5/24HRS/.D1.0/24HRS/Dl,O/25HRS/Di.O/2iHRS/Di,O/26HRS/Di,5/24HRs/Dl,O/24HRS/Dl,5/28HRS/Dl,@/18HRsINITINITULCCULCCINITULCCOBSOBSFIXFIXOBSFIXINIT OBS ULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT OBSINIT OBSULCCULCCULCCFIXFIXFIXPSBL SCNDRV 14.3N 132.8EULCC FIXEXPULCCINITINITLLCCFIXOBS0SS169

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23S237238Z39240241242*E!43.244245X24624724S2492s0%25125225325425525609060009080099100009120009150009159509153509160509163009163s09173s091735091235%91235e919es091935091ss00920350921L3@09213009223032. 6N32.8!432 ,2N32, 9N33. ?N33, 8N33, 9N34. lN33.5N34. It+34. 3N33.5N34, 5N33 .5N34, 5N34. 5N33.9N34. lN33.2N34. 2N34. 3N126,6E126,5Ei26.4E126,3Ei26. OEi26.5E1.26.4Ele6. OE126. OEi26. OE125.7Ei.27. OE125.8Ei27. OE126. OE1Z6. OE1.36. OE126.3E126. lE126.3E126,4ELQNDLFINDL*NDLGNDL4NDLfiNDLfiNDLFINDLANDLFINDLANDLFINDLRNDLFINDLhMDL61NDLANDLfiNDLCINDLANDLONDGOODGoODGOODGOODPOORPOORPOORPOORFAIRPOORPOORFhl RPOORF&IRPOORPOORF611RF61RPOORPOORPOOR3s35 30%2eMOV 3010Mov 9s10flOV3410MOv 34ieWov 3415SPRL 2hRL S6NASPRL BeND AREfiSPRL SflND ilREI?EYE FIX DIFFUSESPRL 2FIND #IRERSPRL 2fIND ARERMOV 36202PRL BhND IIREFISPRL 8FIND i4REI+R6DARFIXESFIXMO.:;yEFIXPoSITIONRfiDllR(ICCR+’EVE EYE RI+DOB-CODESHIIPE D1flN hSUAR TDDFF COMMENTSRfiDeRPOSITIONSITEuMO NoA~s678;;12;:Is16171s2:Z122232425262728293e313Z330804000805000a069e080700es@8eoe80900esleeo081100081290e81 300mg::0s1600‘22170002180e0819&70824300e221e008220$30S230@090000090100090800e9c33ee09049e09050009060e09e7eoe9e8eee9e909e91ee0e91i%0091263030.8N30.8N30.8N30 ,2N30, 9N30. 9N30. 9N30. 9N31. ON31. IN:; ; :~31. 2N31. 4N31. SN31 .6N31 .6N31 .7N31.9N32. OU32. IN32.2N3Z ,2N32. 3N32. 4N32. 6N32. 6N32. 6N32, 6N32, 6N32, 9N33, 9N33,1NIZ9.8E129.6E129.5E129.4Ei29.4E129,1Ei29. OE128. SE12a, ?E128. 6E128.4E122.3E128.2E128. IE127.9E127.8E127.6Ei27.6Ei.2?.4Ei27.3Ei27.lE12S .9Ei26.7E126.6E126.6E126.7E1?6.6E126.6E126.6E126, SE126.3E126.3E126,3ELeNDLI?NDLRNDLl+NDLIINDLfINDL&NDL#iDL6NDLRNDL&NDLfiNDLnNDLtlNDLeNDLhNDLnNDL6NDLf)NDLf?NDLflNDLFINDLFINDLRND:~,:L6NDLRNDLeNDLfiNDL6JNDLFINDLfiNDie4ii 531131041/ 527111041/ 6270S1e4i/ 62sesl@41f s3ees1041/ 527111061/ S2?081061/ S2805.?064/ s30iiao7i/ 5279s2@7i/ s29112171/ 53011.2162/ S300621s4/ s3el 145/// 53113SS/// 53198S5/// S2708SS/// 2.350B55/// 534i36s/// S34116S/// S32116s/// S3’21165/// S271165/// 53111s5/// s021155/// sol 1154/// 5330s65/// 6000055ZZZ s30esss/// s35es!5s1// s34il65/// S34e86SZZ/ S36eSSYNOPTIC“FIXESFIxNo.~;~E FIX INTENSITY NEARESTPOSITION E6T1MFITE DnTf4 (NM)CO?WENTS;34~~~;~~ 34. 2N 126. 2E e6s e364716S 471S8 47182 4718934.5N 126.6Ee6s 0154716S 471S6 47182 47189iee60e 35. 4N 126.8Eefiee15471S8 4716S 47133 47i29lee900 36. 4N 128. OE e4s eis 47133 47135 47143NOTICE - THE F12TERISK2 (S1 INDICfITE FIXES UNREPRESENTfiTIVE fiND NOT USED FOR 8EST TRFICK PURPOSES.

BESTPoSIT22,7 131.322.8 131,123.0 130,823 1 1:i0,523.4 13Q,223.9 1;!9.724.7 1S9.125.5 128.726.4 128.627,6 128.028,8 127.129,7 126.330.9 125.632,2 124.934,2 124.336,4 124.539.4 125,44.2.0 127.6TR13CKlJ:gD POSIT@o 0.02s 0.0 0,025 @.0 0,030 0.0 0.035 23.5 130.240 23 8 129,845 2k.8 15!9,15!3 ?5.6 128S50 26.8 127.9S0 27.8 127.855 28.8 127 560 30.0 126.160 21.4 125.369 32.1 125.260 34.0 124.455 36.3 124.245 39. s 12s.125 41.8 127 1LIIIRNING.Lll ND00.03:.4045,se5@50.55.6060.60.6055.40.25.,,LL F~~13fi~ST5 TYPHOONS UH1LE4~~~~ 35 KTSlJF!NG 43#-HR 72-HP lJRNG 2.4THR 75:HR6VG F0RECf3ST POSIT ERROR 18 129. 2::. ’257. a. 0.IW4C RIGHT ANGLE ERRoR 12, 51. 17, 0. 0. e.0.RVG 1NTEN51TV M$IGNITUDE ERROR 11 :3: S@ 0. a.0.AVG INTENSITY BIAS ;: : 11, 23, 5:. :: :. 0. 0.NUMBER OF FORECfiSTS I@ 6‘a 0DISTfiNCE TRAVELED 8Y TROPICtIL C’fCLONE 1S 13%7 NMhVERhGE 5PEE0 OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 1S 13. K>5uTsTROPICAL STORMFIX POSITIONS FORLEECVCLONE NO. 9SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)FIXPOSITION9CCRVDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITEi*34*S6:1:11121314% :;% t;x $:x 21222352# 2627282930x 3132x ::353637383940x :;4344::::4950515253545556x z;x 596061PCN SPCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 3PCN sPCN 6PCN 5per+ 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6pcri sPCN 6PCN 6PCN spcri 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6pcri 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 4PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4pcr~ 6pcri 6PCN 3PCN 6pcrq sPCN 6PCN spcri 6PCN 6pcri 5pcri 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T1.O/1,0Tl,O/1.OT1.5/l.5Tl,5/1,5T1.5/l.5T2.5/2.5zD@,5/27HRS/D1.0/24HRSINIT OBS PART EXP LLCCINITINITOBSOBSINIT OBSLILAC 2i.ori i29,1EULr4C 23..0N 13@.iET2.S/2.5 /D1.0z26HRST2.S/2.S INIT OBSULCC FIXT3.S/3,S /Dl,@/24HRS -T2.5/2.5T3.@/3.@-/DoT3.0/3,@.5/i9HRsINTI OBSPART EXP LLCCINIT OBSPART EXP LLCCULAC 32.3N 127.OEP6RT EXP LLCCPaRT EXP LLCCT3.5/3.S-/Sb3.(3/24HRS PART EXP LLCCPART EXP LLCCT3.5/3.5-/DlT3.0.-3.0,0f18HRS/SO,@/24HRSuLCCEXPULCCFIXLLCCFIX184

:;yFIXPOSITIONAI RCR*FTFIxEs.FLT 7;’3~6 !OES NAX-SF>-UNL, M9X-FLT-LVL-IJNDLVL fl:~p \, EL.. BR2/RNG DIR/vEL/BFG,R6i GEvE ORIEN-D1OM.TQTIONEVE TEMP [C)OuT/ IN/ DPJSSTMSNNol’al%se11c301g1 l@c5G11@9331122s)312*e3273s275151.113663se+26 +26 +e4+12 +12 + 5+28 +?7 +26 2B+27 +27 +26 28+27 +26 +26 28+26 +26 +26 28+13 +15 + 6+2S +S6 +25+14 +15 + 8+24 +26 +25R14Dfi RF1xE5~T~EFIxPOS1TIONRtiDfiRficcRYEYE5 HAPEk.

MO/ DQ. HI?081506Z081s122081s182081600z081606208161220816182081700208170620817122081718208180020818062eslsizz@B1818Z081990208190620819122@81918Z0820002BESTPOSIT25,2 124.425,7 1;!5.0a6.0 1;!5.726 G 125,927.1 126,027,6 12S,928,2 1?5,728.7 125,329,2 124,829.7 124,030.2 123.430,9 122.531,8 lZ1.632,9 12@.834,2 lzo.335,7 1s!0,237,4 11!0.439.2 121,341. S 123.043,9 125,5TRACKWARNINGLIIND POSITlJ~ND250.@:: :.: 0,0 00.045 26.4 12;;; 4;”50 26.8 126,3 50.50 27.4 126,2 S0.6’8 27.8 126,0 5565 ?9,0 125,3 6S65 29,5 124,7 7070 29.6 124,2 70.7@ 30.0 123.8 70,70 30.6 i22.96s 31,7 122. i ;:.6S 33,2 121,1 65,60 33,9 120.8 60.513 35.8 ti9,8 50.40 36.8 119.8 40.40 39. i 121.3 49.3@ 41.3 122.4 30.25 43.3 125,2 25.-e-e::-e:-e-9 .-e-e,-e:::-e.QLL’F~~~;~STS TYPH00N~4Wl~LE4~~Jj 3S KTSWRNG ~~4:R 7e-HRw:::7Z-I+RRVG FORECeST POSIT ERROR26, 120. 266.115, 203. 249.FIVG RIGHT +?t4GLE ERROR 14. 70. 147, 1$; ;13, 73. 139,91.QVG 1NTEN51TV MfiGNITUDE ERROR9, 18.i. le.14. 23.nvc INTEN51Tv 81As ;:18, 29,I@, 14. 2:.NuMBER OF FORE CftSTS 1?1:” 94 1;’bl 7DISTfiNCE TRfIVELED BY TROPIC(4L CYCLONE 1S 133s Mm.QVERIIGE SPEED OF TROPICf)L CYCLONE IS 12, KNOTSTYPHOON MfIMIEFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 10SATELLITEFIXESFIX,NO.FIxPOSITIONfICCR’fDVOROKCODECOMMENTSSITEx‘....‘d:4PCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNT1.S/1,5Ti.0/l.0T2.5/2,ST2.S/2,ST2.5/2.5T2.S/2.ST3.5/3.S-/Dl.0/24HRST3.@/3,0T3.0/3.eT3.@/3.0-/DCI.5/28HRST4.0/4.0T4.S/4.S-/DlT4.O/4.@-/DlT2.0f3.0T2.5/2.ST2.O/2.S/D1.0/24HRS/Db.5/27HRs/D0,5/24HRS,@/25HRS.@/24HRS/111.@/26HRS/W2.0/24HRSINIT OBSINIT OBSPARTIf4LLY EXP LLCCINIT OBSINIT OBSULCC FIXWELL DEFINED CENTERPf4RTIQLLV EXP LLCCPARTIALLY EXP LLCCINIT OBS PARTIALLY EXP LLCCINIT OBS186

1909001912c3@1914691916001918412@B00@2000392GY@10838. 8N40. 2N39.9N41,6N4??.4N43.3N44. 2N44. lN121 .6E122,0E121.6E122.2E123.6E125. OE125,4E126.4EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6::; :EXPULCCULCCLLCCFIXFIXPG+tJPGTWRKSOPGTwRKSOPGTwRKSORKSO01RCR9FTFIXES:;:EFIX FLT 7;S&~B OBS M9x-SFC!-WNDPOSITIONLVL msLp VEL,, BRG, PNGt+IIX-FLT-LVL-LINDDIR(vEL/BRG/RNGncc RY EYEtmv,m ET SHnPEEvE ORIEN- EvE TEMP (C) MSNDlON/TfiTION OUT, IW DP,SST No.rs?!340 26..*N 126, lE162049 28.6N 125.6Eis00F7 996 5s I@o 10 160 :: :3:76+0f’lB 29B6 9B2 6S 090 70 17060s560 Is 4+26 +27 +25+te +19 + 9 iRADhRFIXES:$yE FIX EYE-Pos I -ITON RhDAR AcCR’i SHfiPEEYE RADOB-COPEDIAN ASW6R TD1,FFR6DilRPOSITIONSITELIMO NO,26. 7N26. 9N27. eN27, lN.26 .9NZ9 5N2$I,6NE@, 3N30, SN12S.5E12s SE12S. SE12S SEi25 . 9E123.9E123.7E123,1E123, sIE6///2 739086///3 7340!36///3 734096/,/3 736056///6 S////34/.3 ?320Z12323 53@1034764 5311234894 S3112STfi LfiT/LONG LINKisoe FIX TIME sTaST* Lf7T/LONG UNK26. ZN 127,8E 4793726.2N 127.8E 47s3726.2N 12?.8E 4793726.2N 127.8E 4793724. SN 12S.3E 478Z7ZX%XN XXXXXE S8760LiiT/LONG UNK XXXXN XXX*XE 5876eXXXXN XX*XXE S8760XXXXN XX*XXE S87603YN0PTICFIXESFIX ~;E FIx1NTENSIT%NO.POSITION EST INRTENE fIRESTDATfi [NM)COMMENTSi 1812W3 33.1 N 121. IE 06sZ 181S0@ 33. -4N 120.3E 06S3 181S09 34. IN 120. OE 0601821630 34.8N i19. BE e5ei! 19e9ee 38 .SN i.2e. 9E ‘a3e6 191200 39,9N 121.3E 0357 192100 43, eN 12S.3E 0250S5eise3e03004eeze040581s0SslsoSzlse58e40536s65S66254157582S15825158040581s.3S8662SB6S6542S9S84S4S427358s39S4172NOTICE - THE F)STER16KS [7. ) lNDI(MTE FIXESUNREPRESENTFITIVE FIND NOT USED FOR BEST TPIICK PURPOSES,187

.Y.,-EEEll’10/Dfi/HR081612Z0Et1618Ze!31700Z0817062081712Z081718Z08180020818062081S122081818Z@8i900Z081906Z081912Z081918Z08?00920820@6z0820L2Z%820182082100Z08210620821 12Z0Zt2118Z08 Z!200Z982 Zf)6Zeszzi 2Z082218Z08238$0Z08,?3@6Z086!312Z082318Z082400Z@824@6ZBEST TRACK wflRNINGPos IT16,917.518,118.819.620.421.221.822.322.522 7143,2142,8142,1141.7141,4140.91 .10.0139.4138.7137.7126,522.923.023.023.123.123.123.323.8135.8124.8133.81!13.11:42.3131.6121.012@,024,0 129 024.124.324,524.624.725,225 5l;!E.O1S6.7125.7li?4.7123,8122.81S1.825.62s,625,525.7d6.1i20.7119,7118.7117.6116.7L!~@lP2020252530xl2.5606570657070757580809@9095908585S@807070503530POSIT0,0 e.o0.0 0.00.8 0.013, Qwe@.’a@.02@.3 141.021. ? 17!J.621 4 13!?.322.2 13!?.322.8 13~.522.6 136.522,8 135.823.1 134.92!3.2 133.723.1 132.123.2 132.223.1 131523.1 130.823.9 130.124.1 129024 .2 127.924.2 126,824.5 125.724.8 124.72~.7 123.725.2 122.725,6 121.82S.7 120.925.7 119.825.6 118.62~,~ 117.50.0W;NDn0.03:40.:265.65.75.70,70,70.7s7s80,808590.90,8%80.S@75.70,70,::.35.0.24 HOUR FOFECPST 48 HOUP F ORE CP.ST72 HOUR FORECflSTERRORSEi7Ro?;ERRORSERRORSDST u;~D P> SIT WIND DST UIND POSIT !J1 til, DST w~; D POSIT IJ;:D DST W;ND-0. 0.0 e 0 8, -’a 0 00 @.@ 0 -e ‘a. o 0.0 -0.-C3 @,c 0.0 0, -e. a, o (! C?o e-e 0. 0.0 0.0 :: -!3. 0.-’a :: 0,0 !3.0 0, -e. a.ooeoe -e. 0. 0.0 0.0-0. 0.-0. :. 0.0 0 0 w -@. a. o @ O.@ 0 -e. 0. 0,0 0.0 0. -@. 0.-0. 0.s! e 0-0. eoo 0.0 -e. @ 0.0 -0.0 2z. @ 138 G 52: s: -5. 2:) @ 125.3 7’: S2. 0, 24.0 13::: 9:: 42, 1::2Z: 0. 2Z.7 135 4 6e. 61 –s. 22 s 131.3 75 10E s. 25,0 128,0 90. 131. 10.25. ;. 23.2 135.8 70. 1s. 24 6 132.1 35 91. 10. 26.1 128.5 9S, 129, S.23. Z4. * 134.8 EO R4 lg. 25 9 130.7 ?iO 17s, 15. 26.7 126.4 9S. 178. S.21, s 24,7 1:13 2. :3: lez. 20. 26 6 129.8 3!5. 20s. 15, 28,1 125,7 100. 234.6. 0, 23.8 132.2 6s 13. 26 0 12E.5 gs 15?. 1S. 28 7 12S,4 190. 2S3. 1::6, 5. 23. ? 131.8 90. 45. . 15. 25 4 127 4 l@O. 121. 10, 28.3 123.6 10S. 230. 2t38. S, 24 9 131.2 90. 5F 15, 25 6 126.6 105 118. 1S. 27.4 121.4 95, 207. i:.13 0. 24 5 129.4 90. 1;;. 10. 26 2 124.3 l@S 172 10. 27. ? 119.2 85, 24S0. L3. 23. 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BEST TRACK W&RNINGP051T WIND POSIT12.8 1X0,8 3S 12,8 180.513,6 1?8.9 3s 1?.9 179.314.4 177. S 40 14, S 177,715.1 1?6 8 45 15.2 176,715,6 1;,6.4 SS 15.6 176.216a 1?6.1 5S 1S.8 175,916, S 1?6,9 60 15.8 17S.916.9 1;,S.7 6S 17,2 17S,617.2 175.4 70 17,6 175,317.5 i;, s.e 60 17,2 174.817 7 :74. s so 17.7 174,418,1 17’3.7 58 18.0 173,318.3 17’3.1 50 18.2 172.918,6 1;,2.s 50 18,4 172.418.9 i72. e S0 18.9 172.019.4 171.6 se 19.2 171.419.9 171.3 45 19,8 171.120,4 171.1 45 20.5 171.52@,9 171.1 40 21.0 171.421,5 171,3 4S 21.4 171.421.6 172. S 46 21.7 172.921.9 173.8 45 22,0 173.722.6 17’4.6 4S 2i?.7 174.623.6 174,7 S0 23.7 17S.124. S 174.7 5S 24.7 175.22S.3 174.6 5S 25,2 174.6efi.1 174.7 SS 26.0 174. S27,2 174,8 60 2?.3 174. ??8.6 174.9 65 28.4 174.930.2 1;,5,1 80 30,2 i7s. e31.8 176.1 75 31.9 175.733,4 1?7.3 70 33.3 177.335.0 17’8.S 65 3S.0 178.9WIND30.30,3s40,50,55.55.66.65.70,60,60.SssO50.so.::.50.45.se.so.50,5e.Ss6e60,6eSs65.79.70.6SERRORSD5T tJJ; B18.48. -5,1:: -5,-5.le. -s17,42, -; :19, 0,2s -5.21, 10.10.22: 10.13. 5.13. 0.0. 0,17. 0,13. 2..23. 5.1:: 19,e.Z3. s.8.::z:: e.30. 0,6. S12. 5.1:: -i::s, -15.21, -5.6. 0.s. 0.24 H8N18.SN18.9N19.IN19.ON18.7NIFJ.2N19.3N19,0N179.9Ei79.3w179.3E178.8E178.OE177.6E177.3E177.3E176.9E176.9E176.4E176,7E176.SE176.lE176.3E176,1E176.OE176.OE176.lE176.OEi76.2E175.4E175.7E175.9E176.OE175.5E175.SE174.4E17s.3E175.3E174.6E175.lE174.8E174.6E174.6E173.5E174.3E173.7E173.8E173.5E173.2E172.8E172.8E172.SE172.6E172,5E172.lE172.2E172.lE171.5E171.8E171 .8E171 .4E170.8E170,7EPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPcNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNT2.5~2,5T2.5/2.5T3.5/3.5T3.5/3.5T3.5/3.5T4.5/4,5T4.5/4.sT4.e/4.0T4.0/4.ST3.5/4.5+/WlT2.5/2,5T3.0/4.0T4.0/4.OT3.5/3.5/Dl,S/25HRS~D1.0/28HRS/D1.@/30HRS/D1.0/24HRs/DO.5f18HRS/lJO.5/24HRS.O/26HRSzSk3.0/24HRS/Wl,O/27HRS/sO.0/24HRS/SO.0/22HRSULCC FIXULAC 12.6N 179.4WULCC FIXINIT OBS ULAC 13.7N 178.9EULRC 14.8N 177.6EULCC FIXEYE FIXDEVLOPNGEYEFIXEVEEYE FIXINIT OBS PSBL EYEULfiC 18.8N 175.3EEX#EXPLLCCLLCCULPC 18.7N 173.8EPART EXP LLCCPART EXP LLCCEXP LLCC ULRC 19.6N 172.9EUL6C 20.ON 174,9EUL.4C 18.8N 172.OEULRC 20.ON 172.4EPGTUKGWCPGTuPGTIJPGThlPGTUKGuCPGTIJKGUCPGTUKGUCPGTUPGTuKGUCPGTUK(XJCPGTUPGTwKGUCPGTUPGTIJKGUCPGTIJPGTb!KGUCKGUCPGTUKGUCPGTUPGTUKGUCPGTUPG7UPGTIJPGTUKGUCPGTuKGUCPGTUKGUCPGTuPGTUPGTblPGTUKGUCPGTLIPGTWKGUCPGTUKGktCPGTUKGUCPGTUPGTUKGIJC

56575859sO%636465666768697071727374757677x %8B818283:2;?8s899@919293949s969798%101102le3194105106107XIC!8109110111ii211311411511611711819,3N 171,@E20.ON 171,5E20,9N 170,5E20.9N 171.lE.21.3N 171.5E20,9N 171,1E21.0!’4 171 .2E&!@.8N 171.2Ei?l.2N 171.5E21. lN 170.4E21,2N 171.6E21..9N 1714E21.3N 172.2E21 .3N 172.7E22.ON 172.@E21.7N 173.5E21. .6N 173.5E21.9N 173.6E22.@N 173.6E22.4N 174.OE22.4N 174.4E22.3N 174.5E23.lN 174.SE23.ON 173.3E23.5N 174.SE2-I.2N 174.7E23.9N 174.7E2’1.4N 174.6E24.3N i74.6E24.8N 174.8E25.ON 174.5E25.4N 174.4E25.3N 174.6E25.6N 174.4E25.7N 174.7E26.9N 174.8E26.IN 174.6E26.7N 174.9E26.8N 175.OE27.3N 174.8E27.8N 174.8E28.3N 174.8E2X.2N 174,3E28.6N 175.OE29.6N 174,9E29,8N 175.lE30.lN 175.7E31.3N 175.6E3Q.3N 17S.7E31.8N 176.3E31.8N 176,2E32.5N 176.7E32.6N 176,2E33.4N 177.3E34.IN 178,0E34.7N 178.5E35.ON 178.7E36.lN 179.4E36.4N 179.8E36.8N 179.7W38,2N 179.4w37.6N 179.7W39. ON 178,8wPCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6p:~ :PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 2PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 4PCN 2PcN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4T3,@/3.0 /111.0/24HRST3,0/3,0+/SO.0/21HRST3,5/4.0 /WO.5/24HRST3,5/3.S /S@.’3/24HRST3.O/3.9 /SO.0/25HRST3.5/3.5-/D@ .5/27HRST3.0/3.S /LJO.5/24HR5T3.5/3.5-/so,0/24HRST2.S/3.@ /L10.5/24HRST4.0/4.0-/D’3,5/24HRST2;S3.O /LdcI.5/25HRST3.5/3,5-/so.O/24HRST4.5/4.5 /D2.0/24HRST5.0/S,O-/Dl.O/21HRST4.5/4.5 /D2,0/24HRST3.S/3.5-/S0.O/24HRST3.0f4.0 /Ul,5/24HRST3.0/4.0+/U2,0/27HRSEXP LLCC UL9C 21.2N 172.5EEXP LLCC ULAC 21.4N 173.L3EULAC 21.7N 172,5ELILAC 2i!.ON 174,4EULRC 22.ON 173.3EUL6C 22.ON 174.3EEXP LLCC ULAC 22.4N 174.2EPART EXP LLCC ULAC 22.6N 175,ULAC 23,9N 17Z.8EULAC 24.8N 174.3EULfiC 24.6N 174.lEEXP LLCCEYE FIXULCC FIXPART EXP LLCC LILAC 2,7,2N 174.EYE FIX20 NM CIRCULR EYEEYE 24 NM DIIIEYE FIxEYE FIXEYE 24 Nfl DICIEVE FIX~;; ::tJl DIQRAGGED EYE FIXULCC FIXULCC 36,4N 179.2EULRC 37.2N 180.OEEXP LLCCfiIRCReFTFIXESFIXPOSITIONFLTLVL7e01’lBHGT08SMSLPMAX-SFC-UNDvEL/2RG/RNGMAX-FLT-LVL-WNDDIR/VEL/BRG/RNGfICCRYNnV/NETEVESHnPEEvE ORIEN-DIW1/TATIONEYE TEMP (C) MSNOUT/ IN/ DP/SST NO,2930305030s33e72306231132982979992996299728882870 974~~ :3: 1935 21@ ::55 040 1550 32sl is2; ;3: 204$3so 3003s 010 3:55 0s0 is35 3064 3e55 040 1s60 i7@ 2S5s 2s0 Is80 Ofie 2see 330 10300 69 040 103ee 4B 2ae IOise ~~ g;g jq320120 54 e7e 3513e 57 04e a020 54 320040 51 330 ;:i3e 6e e4e 20219 48 110 11e80 38 910 2334e 36 110 302ie 57 e60 e2;:: :: :3: 2s1s0 57 i3e i~i3e 77 e2e 2e28e 59 2ie 20179 92 060 3e33e 75 e6e ieie s8322858S211; ;ie 310 28184716212 i2C5362i: :CIRCULfiR2eCIRCUL6R 39CIRCUL6RELLIPTICAL ;! 49 03@CIRCULfiRCIRCULJIR IS+le +19 +ie 2+9+19+3 3+8+17+3+13 +17 + s :+ie +17 +12 4+ +25 +24 27 5+24 +25 +SS 27 s+25 +2? +25 32 6+ +29 +28 Z8 7+ +28 +2S 28 7+2S +S6 +26 27 B+ie +I; + 7 8+2s +22 +2s 28 9+2s +Z5 +25 28+e3 +26 +2S 26 18+8+16+4 10+24 +26 +22 11+11 +14 + 411+1.2 +16i3+ie +is13HOTrCE - THE ASTERISKS (*) lNDICfiTE FIxEs UNREPRESENTATIVE 6ND NOT USED FOR BEST 7RfICK PURPOSES.201

BEST TRI+CK U12Wi1NGPOS?T til ND POSIT1S,0 134.0 25 0,0 e.e1s,0 132. s 30 15,0 132.715,1 121.1 35 15,5 132,015.3 129,2 40 15.8 129,315.1 1;!7.6 45 1S.3 127,114 7 126.4 50 14,7 126,214.6 1;!5 2 Ss 14,7 12s,314.8 124.3 55 14.7 124,215 ..2 123.5 G@ 14.8 123.115.8 122.8 6s 1s,6 122.816.4 122 ..2 70 16.5 122.317.3 1s1.2 3S 17.2 121,617.7 119.4 40 17,9 120,118,2 118,2 S0 19.1 118. Z18.6 117,0 SS 18.7 116.918.9 11S.7 SS 19.3 11S.719,1 114.7 69 19,4 114. S19.4 113.9 65 19.4 113.9zO, O 113.3 70 19,9 113,320,6 113,0 7s 20. s 112,921.2 112,6 7S 21.3 li.2.621.8 112,2 50 22.0 112.022,6 111,7 E!5 Z2.7 111.7LI;;D30.30.3s4s,50.S5Ss60.6s70,se.4@.sOSsSs60.Ss;:75:65.45.4S HOUR FGRECfIST 72 HOUR FORECASTERRORSERRORSPC151T LI:NI. DST WIND POSIT w:ND DST wIND0 0.0-0. ‘G, 0.0 0.0 -0.0 12S.3 6s. 195, 0. 19,1 120.4 90 136. 4$:~ ;~W:j 65 178. -5. 19.4 119.4 9D 144, 35.75 117, 40. 20.8 117.5 90. 1s3, 35.5 117.0 70. 145. 30. 20.9 114 9 90 1*9. 30.1 117,7 65 2$1. 15, 21,2 114,8 65 119.1 117.5 65. 41, 10, .32.2 115,7 65. 188. -::9 116.8 70 62, 15. 23. I3 11S.2 60, 189. -15.8 116.1 7515 24,2 115,1 40, 2:;: -:::s 11s,5 65. l;g. 0, 22,2 113,0 65.2 113.8 6S 56. ~~, 21,6 110,4 60, 94, 35.i i13.3 70 34, 6.0 %.0 0, -0. %,0 112.0 7s 36. 0.0 0.0 e, -e, O.2 111.0 30 ie7. -2Z o.e e.0 0, -0, 0.3 10::: 3$. 155. 5. e.0 e.o 0. -e, 0,9-0, @. e,o o.e 0, -0, 0,0 0.0 0 -0. 0. W13 @.@ 0, -0, 0,0 o.a e -0. e. 0.0 0.0 13, +J. 0.0.0 0 -0. 0, 0.0 0,0 f?.e.: 0.0 e, -e. o, e.o e.e 0. -0: 0,e.0 0. -e. e.o o.e e. -0, e,: 0.0 @ -’2, :: 0.0 e,e 0. -0. 0.0 C1.e 0. -0. 0. ‘a.0 e.0 e, -0, 0,FILL FORECASTSURNG f;;:R 4~;UR ;;.2:RIIVG FORECfiST POSIT ERROR 19,FIVG RIGHT ANGLE ERROR Is 70. S6 115’9VG INTENSITV Mti GNITuDE ERROR 3. 1:: 12. 25.FIVG lNTENSITV 810S 14.NUMBER OF FORECASTS 2: 18 1:” 10DISTIINCE TROVELED BY TROPIC61L CYCLONE 1S 14?0 NMeVER(+GE SPEED OF’ TROP1C6L CYCLONE IS 11. KNOTS119T’fPHOONFIX POSITIONS FORTESSCYCLONENO.15SATELLITEFIXESF 1.XNO.FIXPOSITIONraCCR’fDVORfiKCODECOMMENTSSITEx!::1781;1112131415161718%21::222627282930313233%36:;39404142434445464748g525354555657S8596061PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4T1.0/l.0T1 .0/1,0T2.0/2.0T1.S/l.ST3,0/3.0T3.5/3.S-/D2.0/l8HRST3.S/3.ST3.5/3.ST4.0/4.0-/Dl.@/24HRST3,S/3,ST3.S/3.ST3,S/3.5T4.0/4.0T3.@/4,Ct+/WlT3.5/3.5+/soT3.0/3.S+/WO/D1.0/28HRS/DO.S/25HRS/DI.0/22HRS/S@.0/18HRS/SO,O/20HRS/SO.0/25HRS/DO.5/24HRS,0/26HRS.@/24HRS.5/24HRSINIT 08S ULCC FIXULCC FIXINITINITINITULCCULCCULCCULCCULCCULCCULCCEXP08SOBSOBSFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXLL.CCPGTIJPGTWPGT!JPGTIJPGTIJPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTIJPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWRODNPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTIJRPMKPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTWRODNPGTWRODNPGTWRODNRPMKPGTWPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTIJRPMKPGTIJRPIIKPGTIJPGTuPGTwRPMKRKSOPGTIJRODN

62636465666768%717273%76777879808182::8Sa6041600041800c34191204?100634235204,?3520590000502290SQ3@E05060005@6i S0509000512000515090516@@@51800051901052100052302060008060209Es6030@06060006@913c307030019. lN19.2NIEI.4N19.2N19.3N19.3N19.3Nlg, SN19.5N19.9N2Q. ON20.2N20, 7N20. 9N21. lN21 .3N21.5N21.6N21 .6N21.8N22, 2N22. 3N22. 9N23.2N24. 9N114,9E114.7E114,6E114.5E114. OE113.8Ei14. OE113.9E113.9E113.4E113.5E113.2E113. lE113. lEi12,7E;;g.g:11Z:4E112. lE112,2E111.9E111.8E111.7E111. lE109,3EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN iPCN 1PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 1PCN 4PCN 4PCN 1PCN 4PCN 4PCN 2PCN 4PCN 2PCN 4PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T4.O/4.0-/DlT4.0/4,T5,0/5,@.O.’22HRSL3/SO.@/2.lHRST4.O/4.0-/D0.5/26HRST4.5/4.5/D1.5/2GHRST4.5/4.5-/D0,S/24HRSINIT 0?2S EYE FIXE’fE 14 NM DIAOPt.EVEPSBL EYEEYE 30 NM DIRPS8L EYERAGGED EYE FIXRAGGED EYEEYE FIXPSBL EYERAGGED EYEPSBL EYEULCCFIxPGTWPGTWRPFIKPGTWRKSORODNPGTwRPMKPGTwPGTURODNPGTWPGTwRODNPGTwPGTwRKSOPGTWRPMK . ....PGTuRPMKPGTwPGTwPGTl,lPGTwe1RCR61FTFIXESFIXNO.TIME(z)FIXP6S1TIONFLTLVL70+?MB @BS M(IX-SFC-UND MQX-FLT-LVL-WNDACCRVEYEHGT M5LP VEL/BRG/RNG DrR/vEL/BRG/RMC NfIV/MET SHAPEEVE ORIEN- EYE TEMP (C) i’lSNDIQM/T&T1ON OUT/ IN/ DP/SST No.010126: 01223s3 @200304 0205445 :~3;~67 0223518 030515x 9 032134* 113 ‘64002711 04064512 04091815. lN 132.6E14.7N 126.6E14.7N 126,3E14, SN 125,4E14.7N 124.9E15.7N 123, SElS.6N 123,0ElG.3N i22,4E19. @N 119. iElg.5N 11S,9E18,8P+ 116,7E18.9N 116,4ElSOOFT1 SOOFTlSOOFT12.’J0FT150@FT7Jd0MB700MB700MB7s!0MBlS@OFT70eMB700MB293329382940301s2988296Sl@f13995s1939899879833S 03050 22050 14050 34045 09050 1406S 3606S 03031 31048 @6050 OBO50 040170.280Zia;.4:.26’010013004014@1601s040 06036 21042 14050 34047 @9053 14062 36065 e3047 310S4 @6061 08043 %4012 42:210 210 115 224358 1010 LO10 101@ 10CIRCULAR+24+25+25+26+26+15+12+as+11+24+14+12+.25+26+26+28+27+1.2+13+15+13+24+16+16+24+20+21+26+’35+7:1:+13+24+11+11Rf!D&RFIXESFIXNO.i~:~EFIxPOSITION RfiDhR eCCRVe2273t3 lS. lN 124.2E LIIND2 021800 i5,1N 124,3E LfiND3 e21830 lS.2N 124. lE LeND4 %.219@0 15,2N 124. S+E LnND5 e2193@ 15,.2P+ 123. 9E LnND6 022000 15.4N 123.6E LeND7 ezzot?’a 15.3N 123.8E LF!ND8 030000 i5.7N i23. lE LAND9 030200 15.8N 123. t3E LeNDie 0304e9 i6.2N 122.9E Lt3ND11 030430 16.3N 122.7E L&NDIi? @305@9 16.4N 122,6E LRND13 030530 lG.6N 1Z2,4E LhND14 030604) i6.4N 122,1E LRND15 03060’6 i6.4N 12.2. lE LRND16 03e630 17.6N 122,3E LfiND17 930700 i6.4N i22,2E LfiND18 030700 16.8N 122,2E LfiND19 030800 16.7N i21,2E LeND20 030800 16.9N 121.9E LnND.21 .23e90e 17.1 N lZ1.9E L6MD22 0310%0 17. 5N 121 .2E LhND.23 031300 15.8N 123.9E L6ND24 03193’2 18. eN 112.9E L/+ND2s e3.2e’o@ lS. lN 118.8E L#lND26 032030 18.2N 112.8E LfiNDX 27 049 Fx3’6 19.3N 118. eE Lr4ND~~ 040230 19.2” lls. OE LtlNDEw5eeoe 19.5N 114, @E L/!ND39 eseleo lY.4M 113,9E L4ND31 ese2e’a 19,5N 113.9E LAND32 0s0300 19,6N 113.7E LAND33 e50400 18. SN 113.6E LtiND34 0se50@ 19.9N 113.5E L6ND35 ese6’eO 19.9N 113.4E LfiND36 6S(7700 20 .2iN 113.4E LhND37 9Se8S+6 2Ei. lN 113.4E LfiND38 0S0909 20. 2N li3.3E LflND39 esioee 20, 3N 113.3E LFiND40 e5~zee 2tI SN li3.2E LfiND41 0s1200 2e.6N 1i3. lE L6ND42 e5i3ee 20.6N 113. eE LAND43 e514@0 i?O.7N i12.9E Lt+ND44 esl!mo 80. 8N ii2.7E L$lND4S 9S16@Ei 20.9N li2.7E L6ND46 051800 .?l.3N 112.7E LfiND47 051900 i?l.4N 11.?.5E LF!ND48 eszeee 21 .6N 112.5E LfiND49 e5ziee .SI.7N iii?.3E LhNDse es2zee 21 7?4 112..2E LflNDsi es.23ee 21. 8N 112. lE LfiND62 efieeeo i!l.9N ti2. eE LfiND63 e6etee 22, 2N i12. eE LfiND64 e6ezee 22. 3N 111. BE LtiNDEYE EVE RfiDOB-CODESH9PE D1.4M eswhR TDDFFEVEEVEEVES0 PCT DPN NLI FfilR7e PCT CIR GOODFORH INGRhDF)RPOSITION16,3N 120,6E16,3N 1?0,6E16,3N 120.6E16,3N 120,6E16.3N 12e,6E18,4N 12i,6E16,3N 12e.6E16,3N 120,6E16,3N 12%.6E16.3N 12e.6E16.3N 120.6E16,3N 120.6E16,3N 120.6E18,4N 121. sE16,3N lE!e.6E16.3N 12e.6E12,4N 12i.6E16,3N 12e.6E18.4N 12i.6E16,3N laO.6E12,4N 121.6E18,4N 121,6E16.3N 12e,6ElB.3N 12e,6Et6.3N 129,6Ei6,3N 120.6ElG.3N 120.6E16.3N lzO.6E22.3N 1i4.2E.22.3N 114.2Ei?2.3N 114.2E22.3N 114.2E22.3N 114.2E2E.3N 114.2E22.3N li4.2E22.3N 114.2E22.3N i14. ~E22.3N i14.2E22.3N ii4.2E22,3N 114.2E22,3N 114.2E22,3N 114, SE22,3N ii4. eE2.2,3N i14.2E22,3N ii4.2E22,3N 1i4.2E22,3ti i14.2E22.3N li4.2E22,3t+ i14.2E22.3N ii4.2E22.3N 114.2E.32.3N ii4. ilE22.3!4 ii4.2E22.3N li4,2ESITElJPIO NO,NOTICE - THE fiSTERISK6 (X) INDIC6TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT U6ED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOeES.203

MO/ Dfi/HR0S1306Z09131ZZ091318Z6914002P91406Z09141zze9i41sz09i 500Ze91506zs19151zz691518Ze9i600z0916062e9i6f2z@9i618Ze9i7eeze91706z::;3; :;esieeozBEST TRhCK LJfiRNING 24 HOUR FORECtiST48 HOUR FORECtIST ?2 HOUR FORECCISTERRORSERRORSERRORSPOSITERRORSw;~D POSIT W;ND DST IJ;ND POSIT wJ&D DST U~ND POSIT U;ND D’i w&,iD POSIT U;ND DST U&D14,2 141,7@,@ 0.0-0. 9.0 e.e 9,0 O.@0,0 (?,0-0.t4, ? 140. B 25 0.6 0,0-0, ‘a, ‘a, e 0.0 0, -0. 0: 00 0,0 ‘a -e, 0, 0.0 e: -0. e.1s.4 1:39,7 26 0.0 0,0 :: -0. 9.’3 e,o e, -0. 0, @,@ e.e :: -0. 0. O.@ ::: e. -e. e.16.2 138,5 35 0.0 6.6-0. $: e.e e,O 0, -0. :: 0 0 0.0-0, 0. o.a e,o e, -e. e,174 137.4 25 e,O 0.0 :; -0. e. 0.0 0,0 0, -0.00 ‘3,0 0 -0. 0. e,e 6,0 0. -e. e.18,4 126.1 30 e,o 0,0 0. -e. 0. 0.0 O.@ %, -0. ‘a: %.0 9,0 0 -e. b3: 0.0 0.6 e, -e. e.18.2 133.9 30 0.0 e.o-9, @. 0,0 0.0 06 0,00.0 0,6 9, -e18.1 132,0 35 12,0 131.9 :::0. 18.2 124.7 5;: Ii;: 10. 18 9 11B,8 6:. ii:: 20. 1::: 11::: 9:: 24s. ?!:19.5 130,6 40 19,5 131.02:: -5. 19.5 124,7 55. 132, 10. 19 5 118.7 65. 143, 2s26.6 129.0 40 20.2 129.3-e. .45. 29, 5. 21.9 123.3 69. 84, 10, 20,5 117.9 70. 91. 35. 6.6 6.0 ~,21.2 i27. e 45 20,9 12?.7-e.45. 43, 0, 21,0 121,6 6S 29. 1s. 21,9 116.6 so SK. ::; 0.0 ;::21,4 124.9 4S 21,5 125,4 45.-e. ::i29 0. 22,9 tl?.9 50, 175, 5. 2;:: 113.5 3EI: 175.0.0 e:21.2 123 2 45 21,3 123.2-e. g:4s,6. 23,0 115.3 5c?, 269. 10, e,e-e. e. 0.0 0.0 e,21,2 122.0 5021.2 121,4-e50. 3? : 6. 22,3 114, S 65. 231. 30, 00 6.6 0, -’ae.w 0.0 e. -e. e.21,3 121,2 50 21,3 119,9 so, 73. e. .22,3 114,1 55, 195. 2s 0,0 6.6 0, -0. :: 6.0 6.6 e.21,4 Z20,6 4S 21,5 119,2-e. 9.45, 78, ~: ~~:~ II-3.7 4:: 131. 25. % 0 0.0 e, -0. 0. e.o 6.6 e. -e. ~.21.6 119,9 40 21.6 120.6 45.0.0-0. 0. 0,0 0.0 0. -0. 0. 0,6 0.9 0, -e.21.7 flS,9 3S 21, B 119,2 46. 1:: 0,0 6.6 0, -0. 0. 6.6 0.0 .2.: -e. 0. 0.0 e.e e. -e. e:22,0 117,6 30 21,8 118,3 40. 41. 1:: %,0 0.6 0, +: 0, 00 6.6 -0. e. .a.e 6.0 e, -e. e.23.9 116.0 20 22,9 116,8 25. 12. 5. e.e 0.0 0, 0. 0,0 0.6 e, -0” .6. 6.0 8.0 e, -e. e.6LL F~~Wfi~STSURNG48-HR 72-HRfiVG FORECTKT POSIT ERROR31. 160. 129. 249.SVG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR1;; 84, 1*4.12VG lNTENSITV M/IGNITUDE ERROR 16. 28. ?~:RVG lNTENSITV BIAS1:. 2g 7:.NUNBER OF FORECOSTS 1$’DISTnNCE TReVELEO BY TROPIC(!L CYCLONE 1S 163@ NH0.e.::e6VEReGE SPEED OF TROPICRL CYCLONE IS 14, KNOTSTROPICAL STORM VFILFIX POSITIONS FOR CVCLONE NO16SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO.TIME(z)FIXPOSITION ACCRV DVOR9K CODECOMMENTSSITEx;%3:H1213:2;:18%212223242s2627282930313233343s36* ::::+1%444s46474849se51S2S354S5S657S8% :;6263641221*O1.2234613030013044913060013091213120013160013173413201113210014000014010714030014043814060014090014120B141348141724141800142100142131iS00991S0047lS030@lS@60@1s06091509001s10111s12001s13281S16001S18001S18551518S51s21101690001602081602es160300160558i6w5s81609001609S016120016144916160@161800162100170000170148i7e3eo17054817a54817060017@90@1711191712001?142817160017180017210018001111.4N9,4NY.@N14.2N14.4N14.4N14.6N15.3NlS.2NlS.@NlS.3N16.3N16.7N16.4N17. IN17.4N17.9N19.lN18.7N18.7N18.8N17.9N17.6N17.7N18.ON18.8N20. 4N20. 4N20. 2N20. 3N20. 6N20. 9N21

I?IRcRfiFTFIXESFIX ;;yE FIX FLT 7::qE 08sNOPoS1TION LVL !451-PHCIX-SFC-WND HhX-FLT-LVL-UND FICCRY EVEEYE ORIEN- EVE TEIIP (C) ~:1,4VEL/BRG/RNG DIR/ VEL/BRG/RNG NRV/MET 51+RPE DIAM/TAT1ON OUT. 1t4/ DP6ST15QW7 1Z9N 131 .9E 1S@3FT 1ee4 45 060 13 is?e 47 @?@ 150 s to: 15c373G 1~.2N i30. @E lsOOFT1@02 45 OBO 60 140 48 980 30 16 33 169230 21 .3N 124.3E 15wF?G99 35 3a’a 2(3 150 42 040 90 4 1+25 +26 +23 3+23 +?,3 +23 s+2S +26 +26 e6 7NOTICE - THE C+STERISKS (%) lNDICATE FIXES UNRE?RESENTeTIVE fiND NOT USED FOR BEST TRfICK PURPOSES205

MO/DA.HR09:900Z091906Z09191?20919182092000209200620!3201220920182092100Zc19z106z09.2112Z99211826$9,?zo@z092206ZBEST TROCK IJRENINGP0514,815.516.216,717,317,918.4i8 a19. sE!OO20,420,921, ,?21.7;lT115,0114.7114.2113.3112,7112.4112,0111.7111.6111.4111,0110.5110.2110.0w;~D?525253B3030354050S@45::POSIT0.0 O.e0.’2 0.00.0 0.016.4 113.216,6 113,017.8 112.318,5 111,719.1 111.219.5 111.42a.1 111,620,5 111.420.7 110.8E!1,3 110.321.7 110.0ALL F~~~fi~STSIJRNG ~~;~R 72;:RAVG FORECti ST POSIT ERROR 18. 87,fiVG RIGHT GNGLE ERROR 14. 69. 136, *.IIVG 1NTENSIT% Mfi GNITUDE ERROR 1, 0.6VC INTENSITY BIOS ;:. -; : -; : 0.NuMBER OF FOREC/i STS 6DISTCINCE TRnVELED BV TROPICG!L CVCLOtiE 1SfiVERAGE SPEED OF TROPICAL CVCLONE 15518. NM7, KNOTSTROPICAL STORM LIINONAFIX POSITIONS FOR cvcLONE NO. 17SQTELLITEFIXESFIXNOFIXPOSITION9CCRYDVORfIK CODE COMMENTSSITE:34:781:1112131415161718%%.23242526272829%::3536373839404142434445464710.6N 114.6E14,6N 114,8E15.6N 114.9EiS.2N 115.OEiS.9N 114.4E16.2N 113.9E1S,9N 113.8E16.3N 113.3E16.6N 113.2E16.4N 112.8E16.SN 11313E16,5N ii3.2E16.SN li2,9E17.6N llz.7E17.6N 112.7E17.8N 11.2.3E18.lN 112.2E18.5N 111.8E18.9N 111,4E19.lN 111.4E19.2N 112.OE19.4N 111.5E19.4N 111.6E19.8N ii2.@E19.4N 110.9E19.5N 111.9E2@.ON 111.7E20.2N 111.5E20.2N 111.SE20.4N I1O.6E20.SN 111.3E20,4N 111.2E2@.9N 111.@E2Q,4N I1O.8E20.5N I1O.8E21.3N 11O.SE20.7N 11O.6E21.2N 11O.3E21.2N I1O.SEF$l.7N 110.6E20.9N 109.9E21.3N I1O.2E21.6N llCI.lE21.6N 110.OE21.9N 110.2E22.3N ll@.lE22.7N ll@.6EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6T1.0/l.0T1.0/i,OT2.5/2,SULCCINITINITFIX0B5OBSULCC FIXULCC FIXT2.5/2.S INIT 08S ULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXT2.O/2.O /Dl,O/20HRS ULCC FIXT2.S/2.5 INIT OBSULCC FIXT2.5/2.5-/S0.9/24HRST2.0/2.5-/uo,2./25HI?sT3.0z3.O /D1.O/24HRST3.5/3.5-/Dl.0/24HRST3,0/3.O-/Dl,0/24HRSEXPPSBLULCCULCCULCCLLCCEVEFIXFIXFIXPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTIJPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTIJPGTWRPMKRODNPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWRODNPGTWPGTLIRODNRPMKPGTWPGTWRODNPGTWRPMKRODNPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRODNPGTwRPMKPGTWRPIIKRKSOPGTWPGTwRKSOPGTIJRKSOPGTURFIZWIRFIXESFIXNorlME[z)FIXPO S1TIONR/l DfiReCCRVEYE>HflPEE’fE R61DOB-CODED1fiM F3SLJ4R TDDFF COMMENTSRfiD6RPOSITIONSITELIMO NOi3456781:11121314151617181916.9N 11Z7E ~~fl’116,9N 112,6E1?,2N li2.6E LIIND17’.3N 112,5E LAND17.4N 112.4E L+IND17,5N 11a,3E LAND1?,6N 112.3E LRND17,7N llE’,3E LAND17.8N 112. ZE LAND17.8N ll?..?E LANDi7.8N 112.3E L*NDi7.9N 112,4E LhND18.2N 112.2E LAND18,3N 112,1E LnND18,3N 112.3E LfiND18,6N 111,9E L(IND18.7N 111.9E LfiND19. ON 111.9E LAND19,0N 111,8E LAND16.8N 112.3Ei6.8N iie.3E16.8N i12.3E16.8N i12.3E16.8N 112.3Els.8N 11z,3Ei6.8N 112.3ElS. SN 112,3E16.8N llz.3ElS.8N 112.3E16,8N lli?.3E16.8N llz.3E16, BN 112.3E16.8N 112.3E20. ON 11o.4E16.8N i12.3E16.8N i12.3E16.8N i12.3E16,8N 112.3E5998159981599815998159981S9981599815998159981599s1S9981S9981S998159981S97S859981599816998159981

SVNOPTICFIXESFIX :;y FIX lNTENSITV NE*RESTNo POSITION EST1M9TE D&T& (NM) CONMENTSF?O.7N n@. SE; ~;;;~~ 21.2N ll@.2E3 2?0600 21.6N llB.2E040 030 566S8 59647 59754040 @l@59658 5964?035 02s S96S8 S9446NOTICE - THE 9STER1SKS (X) lNDICOTE FIXES UNREPRESENT.4T1VE @ND NOT USED FOR BEST TRflCK PURPOSES.m7

EEElnO/DA/HRc392700Z092706z0927122092718z08880020828062@92812Z092818Z@92900z61929e6z0929 12Ze929i8z0930e’az@930e6z6+93012Z@93018Z1001WZ1001@6z100ii2z10011821002002BEsrTRhCKPOSIT18.4 117,318.6 116,618,7 116.018,9 115,519.2 115.019.2 114,419.9 113 718.8 112.918.7 li2.21s,7 111.518.7 11a,718. S 110,118,3 1@9,418,2 108.918,1 108.418,1 107.818,2 107.2Is. @ 106,717.8 106.317,7 105.817. S 10S,4-0.-0.18,25.0,6.1::6,1;:6.8.1::8,0.8.AVG FOREC&ST POSIT ERRoR9VG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROReVG lNTENSITV FiQGNITUDE ERROR6VG It4TENS1TV 81ASNUf’lBER OF FORECfISTS.QLLURNG9.6.j :DISThNCE TR4VELED B+’ TROPICeL CYCLONE IS 705. NMavERi2GE SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 6, KNOTS;~;HRS418.5.4TYPH00N~4~;;LE4:~fig 35 KTSldRIJG72-HR42. 87. 129,6: ;:; 63 9t14. 12.;!:;:, -8, -:.7TYPHOON ANDYFIx POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 18SATELLITEFIXESFIX TIME FIXNO. (z) POSITION 9CCRY DVOR9K CODE COMMENTS SITEx89::121314i:1718%2122::252627282930313233343s36;$:?424344:247::sO51S2S3545556S75859602S1849 16.4N270000 18.4N270300 18.SN270S42 18.4N270600 18.SN271100 19.lN2?1827 18.SN272158 19.ON2723S4 19.2N280127 19.6N280127 19.6N280300 19.3N2S0600 18.7N2S0713 18.SN280900 18.6N281038 19.4N281200 19.ON281408 19,0N2816S30 18.8N281800 18.7N281959 18.4N282100 18.7N290000 18.6N290248 18.7N290300 18.6N290600 18.6N290721 18.9N290900 18.9N291200 18.8N291s29 18.6N291s0029180018.6N18.SN291948 18.6N29210@ 18.4N300000 18.3N300228 i8.lN300300 18.2N300600 18.2N300608 18.lN300900 18.4N301137 18.lN301137 18.lNym:g18.lN17.9N301600 18.lN301800 18.ON301936 18.lN302109 18,4N302235 18.3N010000 18.lN010208 18.3N010300 18.ON0i060c3 18.2N010640 18.2N01090@ 18.ON@lllls 17.9N011116 l?.6Nol120@ 17.8N011448 17.6N911926 16.9N122.9E116.9E116.8E116.4E116. SE ,-..PCN 6PCN A113.9E PCN 6 T1.0/1,0114.9EllS.4E115.3E114.6E115.2EPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNT1.S/l,ST2,S/2,ST3.@/3,0T2.0/2.c3114.SE PCN114.2E 6..: --IT114.2E113.8E114.8E113.7Eli3.2E112.8E112.7E112,SE112.7E112.2E112.IE111.7E111.5E111.SE111.OE110.9E110.4E110.2E110.2Ei09.9E199.7E109.4E109.2E109.2E108,7E108.7E108.4E108,5E109.lE108,SE108.2E108.2E108.1Ei07.9E107,8E197.2Ei07.3Ei07.2E107.lE106.5E106.9E106.4E106.4E106.7E.106.3E106.6E106.1EPCN 5PCN 6 T2>0/2,0PCN 6/11’Zl,5/llHRS/D1 .O/26HRSPCN ~ T2.0/2.@ /D1.o/2@HRSPCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6 T3.5/3,sPCNPCNPCNPCNPCN63:T4.0/4.@ /Di.S/27HRSPCNPCNPCNPCNg:!T4,0/4,0 /Di.O/26HRS;,- ,.PcN ; T4.5/4.5-/Dl .O/24HRSPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCN i i’4;

RfIDARFIXESFIXNOTIMEFIX(z) F,OS IT ION RQDAR ACCRVEYESHAPEEYE RADOE-CODEDIFIN FISWfIR TDDFFCOMMENTSR6DraRPOSITIONSITELIMO NO1096/ 532/-’E138i? 3281121632 S270611482 5320624542 S320612412 5280611184 527071%384 5?80611375 5270624832 5280610522 5280614S12 S2S%822641 S281022641 S2708EVE 50 PRCNT CIRCLR OPN s16.3N i2e.6E16,8N 11 F2.3E16.8N 11.2,3E16.8N 112.3E16.8N 112.3E16.8N 112.3E16,8N 112,3E16,8N 112.3E16.8N 112.3E16.8N 112.3E16,8N llZ.3E16.8N 11Z,3E16,8N liE!.3E16.8N 112.3E98321S9981S9981S9$+8159981S9981S99815998159981S998159981S99S1S9981S9W1SYNOPTrCFIXESFIX INTENSITY NE fiRESTPOSITION ESTIMATE DfiTe {NM] COMMENTS18,2N 113.3E @40 04e 599S1 fiND SHIPS18,5N liO.4E 06s 055 S9949 59SSS S9981 59838S9845NOTICE - THE 6STER1SKS ( X) lNDICeTE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE eNll NOT USED FOR BEST TR#ICK PURPOSES

. ..... ...-BEST TROCK WeRNINGcon...POSIT LIIND POSIT LIIND DST LIIND16, ? 132.9 E!@ 0.0 0.0 0. -0: 0.- e16,5 13?.3 20 O.e 0,0 -0. 0. 016.4 131.6 25 16 5 131,6 2~ : 6, 016.1 131 e 25 16 4 13@.9 2s 19. 0, +:16.2 130.7 30 16.0 130.2 30. 29. 0, 1616.1 130.4 35 15.8 129.6 35. 50 0. 1516.3 130 1 45 1S,8 130,0 40, 31. -5. 1516.7 129.9 55 16,’a 129.9 S@. 42, -5. 1617.4 129.6 60 17.1 129.3 55. 25, -5, 1817.9 129.1 60 18.0 129.2 5s 8. -5, 191?.7 128.6 65 17.7 128.9 60. 17, -5, i817.8 128.9 70 17,7 128,7 70. 13. O 1818.4 128.2 75 18,1 LF!8.2 70. 18. -5. 1918.8 127.3 80 18.8 127.2 75. 6, -5. 2019,1 126,3 80 19.4 126.4 75. 19. -s, 2119.6 125.3 85 19,5 125,6 8s 18, 0, 2120.5 124.3 90 20.5 124.3 90. 0. ‘2 2521.6 123,4 9@ 21.5 123.5 90.0. 2623.0 i23, @ 90 227 123.0 90. 1:: e. 2824.6 122,7 90 24.5 122.7 90. 6. 0. 3126.0 122.6 90 26.3 12?!.6 90. 18, 0, 332’?,8 123.2 8S 27.8 123.1 905. 029,7 124.3 80 29.4 124.2 85, 1:: 5, 03z.8 126.0 7@ 31,9 126.1 70,0, 033.8 1280 65 33.8 128.2 6S 1:: 0. 0i3LL F;;~&TSLIRNG 48-HR ~~;nRRVG FORECfiST PosIT ERRoR i7 93. 24SAVG RIGHT eNGLE ERROR 12. 43. 106. 23@hvG INTENSITY MfICNITUDE ERROR 2. 6. 8, 17,fIVG lNTENSITV BII%S -1 ;;NUMBER OF FORECASTS 23 & 1;DISTANCE TRfiVELED BY TROPICfiL C’VCLOtiE 1S 1551. NMFIVERRGE SPEED OF TRoPICAL CYCLONE 1S 11. KNOTSTYPHOON BREND9FIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 19SATELLITEFIxESFIXPOSITIONCtCCR’fDvOR6KCODEcOMMENTSSITES.3NB.3N9,9N10.8Ni3.4NlS.lN14.9N14.SNlS.ON15.3N16.9N16.9N16.5N16.6N16.5N17. lN16.3N17.ot417.lN16.9N16.9N17.ON16.7N17.ON16.3N16.ON16.ON16.8N15.7N16. lNlS.9N16.2N16.2N15.8N16.5N16.lN16.5NlS.9N16.4N17.21N17.5N18.ON18.5N18.5N18.9N17.8N18.lN17.8NlS.ON17.4N18.3N18.SN17.6N18.9N18.4N19.lN19.ON156.6E150.3E152,3E;:;.::143:1E141.7E140.2E140.2E139.7E139.OE138.9E137.4E137.3E137.lE134.4E133.5E132.9E132.9E132.4E132.3E131,SE131.7E131.5E130.8E130.2E130.lE129.8E129.9E129.3E129.lE128.7E128,7E128.6E129.OE:g:.:~i29:8E129.8E129.8E129.4E129.5E129.3E129.lE127.2E128.5EIZ9.9E:g;.::128:6E128.lE128.OE127.8E127.7E127.2E127.3E127.@EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6;g: :PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PcN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6T9.5/0.ST1.5/i.5T1.0/l.5+/WO.5/24HRST1.5/l.ST1.5/l.S+/SOT1.5/l.5T2.5/2.STl,5/i.5T2.S/2.5T2.5/2.5T3.6/3.5T3.0/3.0T3.5/3.5/DO.5/23HRS.O/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/Dl,O/24HR5/D1.O/2iHRS/D1.O/24HRS/DGY.5/25HRST3.5/3,S /D1.0z24HRST4.0/4.@+/D@.5/24HRSINITINITULCCULCCuLCCULCCuLCCULCCULCCULCCULCCULCCINITINITULCCULCCULCCINITOBS0B5FIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXOBS08SFIXFIXFIXOBSPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTWPGTL!PGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTLIPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWRODNPGTLIPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTUPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWRODNPGTWRODNPGTLJPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTLIRPIIKPGTIJPGTW

e21428e2i6eee2i8eoe22is3030127e3ei27e3e3eeemfieee306i9639900e3ie33e31e44e312eee314s37e316e0e3i8ee031904032132e4eie7::::::04e6e8e4e9ee04iei204iea204t2e0e4t34?e4i6eee41800e41854e42ieee423ei0423ezeseeoee50046056ss7esefieeese9eei9.3N19. eN19.3N19.6N26. SN2e.4N20. 2N2@.7N26!.6N21 .eN21 .2N.21.i?N21.4N21.9N22.2N22. 6N23. IN23. 8N24. 8N25. SN26. lN2S .9N26. 8N27. eN27, 2N27.7N28. eN28. 6N29. 3N30. eN36c6N31 .7N31 .E!N31.9N32, eN3S.2N33. 2N33. SN126.8E126.5E126.2E126. eE12S,1E12S. iE124.7E124.3E123,7E123.7E123.6E123. SEi23,3E123.2Ei23. lE123.2E123.6E122.3E122.7E122.4E122. iE122.8E123. OE123..2Ei23, iE123.4Ei23.8Ei24.2E124.2E124.8E125. eEi26. iEi2S.8Ei26. eE126.3E129.9Ei26,2E129.8EPCN SPCN 6PCN GPCN 6PCN 1PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN iPCN 4PCN 2PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 2PCN 4PCN 1PCN 2PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PcN 3PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6T3.5/3,Sl’s.0/s.eT4.5/4,STS,O/S.6T4.5/4.5TS.e/S.e-/DO/D6.S/27HRSJD1.s/2?HR!i/DC3.5/22HRSfD1.S/29HRS/Di.0/24HRS.S/24HRST4.5/4.5 INIT OBSEXP LLCC LILAc i9,iNDEVELOPING EvER9GGED EVERAGGED EVEPOORLY DEFINED EYE90 PRCNT CLOSD EYEWLPOORLY DEFINED EVERAGGED EVERAGGED EYEEVE FIXEYE FIXRAGGED EYEPOORLY DEFINED EYET4.0/4,5-/W0.S/24HRSPART EXP LLCCPf3RT EXP LLCC~~;; ~~39N i26.iET3.5/3,SULCC 31,5N 126,3EULCC 32.3N i26,4ET3,5/4.s /lJi,s/24HRST3.e/4,e .&li.5/24HRS ULCC FIXEYEFIx12S.4EOPNSLIRODNPGTWPGTIJPGTwRODNPGTWPGTwPGTwRPMKPGTIJRPMKPGTWPGTWPGTLI ..-PGTWPGTLIRODNPGTIJPGTWPGTwPGTWRKSOPGTWPGTIJRKSOPGTUPGTWPGThIPGTwRPIIKPGTLJRODNPGTIJPGTWPGTWRKSOPGTIJPGTWfilRCRfiFTFIXESTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONFLTLVL7:;7sOBSHSLPMRX-SFC-!JND N4X-FLT-LVL-WND f+CCRY EYEVEL/BRG/RNG DIR/VEL/BRG/RNG NRV/NET SHfIPEEVE OR XEN-DIRM/TfiTIONE’VE TEMP (c) MSNOUT/ lN/ DP/SST NO,E9e32929212.93eee3a3906233098573eaalzBleeseB106z901083s012941B1S!337020545BzoaceBzzezle&s234503ess7B3C+8S203210103333604211084234616.7Ni6.3N16. lNi5.8NIS.9NIS.7N16. SNi7.4Ni7.8N17.5N17. SNi8.4NiB.5Ni9.3Ni9. SN20. 6Nzl, eN23,8N24. 6N31.4N32,4N133. aEi31.4E13e.9E13e.5Ei3e.4E13e. eE129.9Ei29.5Ei29.4E128.7E128. 9EiZB ZE127,7E12S.2E125,7E124.3Ei23.9E122,5Eiz2. BE125, ZEi26,6ElSOOFTie.eem150eFTiseOFTiSLWFT7e0ue7eeNB7aeMB7eel’lB7eeriB70011B7eemB7eeu9700f4B7ee.mB700MB;::;;7ew4B700MB7eemB3e293e223e363ei929372935293 i292S28e027832799a78s273Ba74?2S98294e1ee31000ieei99s99599098698i98S9809B096S966964i5 350 4B25 310 i2615 210 8S3@ 090 1103s 3eo 8Sse e4@ 6@65 15E 3e7e 22e se6s e20 se6e i7e i2e78 e6e 306e i4e i4eee ese 6e9e e3e i3eBO i10 Be75 040 9e70 e7e 12e7e 1s0 12060 ieO 20s6e i6e ieee8ee4e33e14ee2e2009s0:;:26e1s02eei4e22$eese23ei3ei7e06e23016ei7 3s0za i3e2s 21036 e9e41 3eo43 iee27 309so 14045 e7e65 i7070 e6e58 i3e65 ese7s 13071 320SB i2086 %4097 e70B1 32e9! i6092 esese404eR/IDARFIXESrIHE(2>FIXPOSIT 10N RhDhREvE EYE RfiDOB-CODE&CCRY SHRPE OIfiN PISWAR TDDFFCONNENTSRWJfiRPOSITIONSITELIMO NO.6///4 432i965/14 73411sszis s3e226S/14 631146S/i5 730i16S/i4 731672i9e4 733e820974 S276221914 7331022214 5341B219i4 733106///4 5//. /20914 734i216974 536i26///S 534i6149S4 536i9209i4 s34iii4984 S33172@9i3 536116///4 S36162@9i3 736i614923 S34166///5 5@21622914 73S196///4 5362221914 735i9( coon7ePlov 364e1@922 536176///4 5@i19b30600)30900)31000)3ilee)3i 2.30)3i3ee)3i40e)3iseet3is0eb3i6ee13i 6ee)31 free531700b3170eb317eeB31seeB31aeea3i9ee33i9eeD3i9e@a32eeeP32eee032000B3z1ee( 032iee032200a322ee213.2200a322eeD323ee0323ee0323eeB4eeee940000B4e iee049 lee34eieea4eieeB402eeB49200b4e2eeb4e2ee*4e3ee94e3eer4e4ee)404ee$40s00)4e5e0)4e6eeb4e6ee)4e7ee14e8ee)4e9e0b4i4ee)s0200hz.e3eeDse4eeGOODGOODFAIRPOOR7e9ese21914 73Si S36974 2.341S209i S 736173e9i4 536.232a93S 73622229S2 S36276///4 5342724953 S3324:~;;: ;:;;;6s. /s 73423///// /////3S963 53323///// /////3S6S4 S@2106//// 5////$//// 5////6//// 5////6//// s////6//// 5////34a62 7052065//4 /////5s//4 se42465/// 5@432IIOV342eMOV 364@MOV 3440IlOV 36402T#l LeT hND LONG UNKS!4 3N 124. 2E24.3N 124. ?!E24. 3N i24 2E24. 3N 124. 2E24. 3N la4 2E24. 3N 1a4 .2E24 ,3N 124.2E24 ,@N li?l.6E24 ,3N 124.2E24, 6N 1.?1 .6f24,3N i24.2E24,8N 12S.3E24.3N 124.2E24,6N 121.6E24.8N i2S.3Ec4. eN ii?l .6E24.3N 124.2.E24. @N 12i.6E24.3N i24.2E24.8N 12S.3E24. 3N i24 ..ZE24,0N 1.21 .6E24, 8N 125. 3E24 .3N 124. 2E24 .8N 12s 3E24.3t4 124,2E24. 2N 12S 3E24. eN 121 .6E?4 8N 12S 3E24 ,8N 12S.3E24,3N 124.2E.24.8N i25.3E24.3N S24.2E24. BN 12S,3E24.3N 124.2224. ON i21,6E24.2N 12S.3E24, BN i2S,3E24. SN 12S.3E24.2N 121.6E24.3N 124.2E24. BN 125.3E24.8N 12S.3E24.3N 124.2E2S. lN 121 .6E24. eN t21 .6E25. lN 121.6E24.6N i21.6E25. iN i21.6E24.6N i21.6EE!5. iN i21.6E25, iN i21.6E2S. iN lZ1.6EXX*XN X%X*XE33.4N i3@,3E33,4N 130,3E33.4N i36.3E47918478i84791B479i8479184791a479i8466994791646659479184792747912466994792746699479184669947918479274791B46699479274791847927479i847927466S947927479274791847!32747918479?!74791s4669947927479274792746699479ia479274792?47918466964669946696466994669646699466964669646696S876047a%647ae647806211

SYNOPTICFIXESFIx :;y FIx lNTENSi TV NE4RESTNOPOS1TIOM EST IMRTE DfiTfi (Mm) COMMENTS34. ON 128. iE ess 05047168 47162 478L30 47182 47805 47843; ~=~~~~ 34 .7N 128. 9E 05004047168 47800 478@S 4?843 471823 051200 35,3N i30. lE ‘a45 050471S2 47138 4780@ 477554 051S00 36.3N 131.2E040 075 47115 47138 47152 47755 47740NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICflTE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT uSED FOR BEST TRfiCK PuRPOSES212

BEST TRACKPOSITle. ? 120.311 1 119.011,4 117.911.7 117.1lE.2 116.51?.6 115.913.0 11S.313.4 114.813.9 114.314.4 113.514.8 112.715.3 111.71s.9 11’a.616.5 109.3i6.8 108.017.8 1k36.717.0 105.4i7,1 104,2UQRNING 24 HOUR FOREC@ST48 HOUR FORECeST 72 HOUR FOREC+)STERRORSERROR5ERRORSERRORSD5T LIIND POSIT IJIND [sST wIND PoSIT LI;N1 DST LI;:D POSIT UJt,4D D:T lJ&4D-0.4;; & _,; . 0.0 0.0 -0.0.036, -:: 1:;: 11:::lL.9 109,7 5$Z :68, -ZO, l;:: 10~:; 20, 238, -80.36. -5. 11.0 113, s 5s, 172. -10 lZ.5 lC9.0 ?S6. -3L3. 0,0 0. -0.13. 5. 11.5 112,4 70, 1S1. 0. 12.5 108.2 45 264. -S0 0.0 e.e 0, -0. :::; ; 0. 12.0 112.3 75, 163. 0. 12.5 108,4 45 241. -55. 0.0 0,0 0, -e, 0.-5. 13.3 113 3 75. 67. -5. 14 1 109.3 6S 144, -3S. l;:; l$?::: 2:: 1::: -le.19. -5 13.7 112.5 75. 67. -10. 14 6 1CJ8,5 45 135. -55. 9,0, 14.7 112,1 90. 43. -5. 15 5 107,6 45 1;;; -45. 0.0 0.0 :, -0, e.1:: 0. 15.3 110,7 95, 36, -5. 16.6 10S.3 50 e. 0,0 @,@-0, ::0. 0, 16.3 109,6 9s 21 -5, 19 1 105.5 7S 141. 4:, 0,0 0,0 :; -0.0, -5. 16.9 1e8.9 95. s?, -5. 0.0 0,0 0 -0. 0.0 0,9 -e, 0,0. -5, 1?,6 108.0 9s 83. 5. %.0 0.0 0 -0. 0. 0.0 em 0. -@. 0.0, 1s.7 1’a6.6 95. 123 45, g : 0.0 0 @.@ e.e e, -e, :,1:: & ?::; 105.0 5’s: 1E6. 20. e.e e. :;: :: e.e e.o e. -9,17.0.e -0. 0.e e.o g, e. e.e o.e g. -0. 0:17. 0. 0,0 0.0 0. -e. :: e.e e.o -0: 0. 0.0 0,0 -e. g,0, O,e 0.0 e. -0. a, O.e e,e 0. -0.0.0 ::: :: -0.-:: 0, 0.0 0.0 0. -’a. 0. 0.’6 0,0 0. -0. :: 9.9 -0. e:eLL F~~~F2~5TS TVPHOON~4~[;LE4~~fi~ 3S KTSWRNG ~;S+:R ~&:R W:yc 72-HRfIVG FoRECF3ST POSIT ERROR 14. 104. 97. 184. 23a.6VG RIGHT tlNGLE ERROR 11. 93. 159. 139, 11. 85. 183, 1s7.fiVG INTENSITV fIFIGNITUDE ERROR10 37. 45. 2.9. 36. se.avG INTENSITY S19S ;::-2; -4:. ;; -3; -8?NUt’18ER OF FORECfISTS Ii”DISTaNCE TRAvELED By TROPICilL CYCLONE 1SfiVERfiGE SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IS1034. NM10. KNOTSTYPHOONFIX POSITIONS FORCECILCYCLONE NO. 20SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONficCRYDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITEi3456781:111213141s161?18%212223242526272829303132333435363738%4142::4s46474849so5152535455565758591%626364%08180009120@100000100400l@12’ao101600101800111600111800120147120400120600120617120906+12104412120012142.81216001218001219091221001300G!0130127130400130600130612131200131208131600i3180@13185813230314@00014024814030014060014@612140900141146141200141528141600141800141848142100142E!41150@0015002615022715022715030015060015073315084515090@1511211512001515081516001518001521001522~0166)000160c3001602071602075.8N 138.8E5.3N 135.4E7.3N 132.3E7.6N 130.9E8.IN 131.7E8.6N 130.2E8.6N 129.7E9.5N 121.4E9.6N 121.lE10.7N 119.8E10.6N 120.9E10.9N 120.4E11.2N 120.OE10.4N 119.2E11.2N 119.8E10.6N 119.lE11.BN i18.8E10.7N 118,6E10.9N 118.2E11.3N 117.9E11,8N 117.2E12.ON 117.OE12.IN 116.7E12.ON i16.6E11.9N 116.5E12.lN 116.7E12.2N llS.7E12.2N 116.OE12.5N 115.6E12.7N 115.SE13.6N 115.2E13.8N 115.lE13,3N i15.iE13.9N 114.8E13.7N 114.5E13.9N 114.lE14.ON 114.4E14.IN 113.7E14.IN 113.6E14.4N 113.4E14.ON 113.4E14.6N 113.OE14.8N 112.8ElS.2N 112.6E15. lN 11.2.4E15.3N 111.8Els.4N 111.7E15.3N 111.2E15,5N 111.4E15.5N 11O.9E15.7N lli.lE16.ON 11O.7E15.9N 11O.3E16.4N 109.2E16.4N 110.lE16.7N 109.5E16.SN 109.6E16.7N 108.5E~:.g~ ;:::;:16:9N 107.4El?,lN 106.9E16.8N 106.6E17.lN 106.8E16.8N i06.2E17.ON 106.2EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 4PCN 1PCN 2PCN 2PCN 3PCN 2g:: :g:: :PCN 2PCN 1PCN 2Pcti 1;$; :PCN iPCN iPCN 2PCN 2PCN 1PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 1PCN 2PCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3T1.5/i.5T1.5/l.5T2.0/.2.0T1.5/l.5T1.5/l.ST2,5/2,5T3.5/3.5T3.5/3.ST3.0/3.@T3.S/3.5T4.5/4,5T4.S/4.ST4.S/4.S/DO.S/2414RS/DO.5/24HRS/D2.@/23HRS/D1.5/25HRS/D1.O/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/D1.O/25HR5/D1.@/24HRST5.5/S.0-/Di.O/20HRST5.S/5.S /D1.0/24HRST5.5/s.5T5.5/5.5-/Di.0/24HRST5.5/5.5/Dl,@/24HRSINIT 08S ULCC FIXULCC FIXINITINITINITuLCCULCCULCCULCCOBSOBSOBSFIXFIXFIXFIXINIT OBSPSBL EYE LILCC FIXPSBL EVEULCC FIXULCCFIXULCC FIXSM9LL EYESMRLL EYEEYEEYE FIXSMALL EVEULCC FIXRAGGED EYEULCC FIXSMALL EYEDEVLPNG EYEEYE FIXEYE FIXEYE FIXINIT OBSSM6LL EVERAGGED EVE 30 NMEVE FIXEYE FIX4 DEG EYE30 NM EYEEVE FIX~;~ ~fxNM30 NM EVEEYE FIXEYE FIXPGTUPGTIJPGTWPGTwPGTwPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTWPGTWRODNPGTuRPMKPGTIJRPMKPGTWPGTIJRODNPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRODNPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRODNRPIIKPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRPMKPGTWRPMKPGTWRPMKPGTWPGTWRODNPGTWRPMKPGTWRODNRPMKRODNPGTuPGTWRPMKRPMPGTWRODNPGTWRPIIKPGTWPGTWPGTwRODNRPIIKPGTwRPMKRODN213

160300 17.ON 106.OE PCN 4160680 16.6N I04,9E PCN 616S!722 17.2N IFK,5E PCN 516144Z 17.lN I02,2E PCN 4ULCCFIXPGTUPGTWRODNRKSO61 RCR4FT FIXES:;:EFIxPOS1TIONFLT 7fl~c#B “f~~ M9X-SFC-LIND M.QX-FLT-LVL-IJNDLvL VEL/BRG/RNC D1 R/VELJBRG/RriG6CCRVNSV/METEvE EYE ORIEN- E’/E TEMP (C) MSNSHRFE DIF!N/T61T10N OUT/ IN, DP/SST NO11’a22213000013 E115613@2241321151400441406181408s19.4N 1,?8,3Eii.8N 117. @E12. ON 116.8E1?2.4N 116.4E13.3N 115. lE13,4N 1i4.9E13,9N 114.2E14. SIN $14. eEi 500FT700MB 299’s700N8 y~?90MB700FlB 2B86700MB &&7e0HB7eeM8 ?775ioC+699e9s497s9749689632a60ae6S4s7s806e36031003014e3.s0150Sse120070060130.230140z%e16@180360310060140090lse95eI ie3 155 ie5 le2 1010 5Ss85as+24 +24 +.S3 .S8 1CIRCULIIR 4e +12 +14 +10+ie +13 +i3 :CIRCLILflR 2@ +11 +13 + 3+13 +13 +13 2ELLIPTIC*L 4e 2e e3e +13 +1S +13.s~LL1pT1c*L CIF!CULfiR ::+1s +1s + 66s ioe +11 +17 + 6 6~llDWtF lXES;;~EFIXPOSITIOM RfiDF!R flCCRVEVE EVE RRDOB-CODESH(!PE DX)%H e8Ulll? TDDFFCOMHENT5R6DRRSITEPOSITION UMO NO,1s03001se4’aOlsesoe15060015e7eelseseeisiaeei6100eie8/2 /////10785 53ie810772 S32e81077Z 531%9ie782 53e9,le772 53111ie86Z S3e11/6/// /////16.6N 112.3E S998116. BN 112.3E S9S8116. BN 1ii2.3E SSS8116. BN 112.3E S9981i6. SN 112.3E S998116.8N 112.3E 5998116.8N 112.3E s99si17. lN ie4. iE 483SSN071CE - THE 6STERISKS ( X) lMDICFITE FIXES UNREPRESENTfiTIVE IW4D NOT USED FOR BEST TRIICK PURPOSES214

~~;CI~~~R1012002101202.210121221012i8ZiOi300Z1013062101312Z1013I8Z1014OQZ1014062l@1412Z10141s2i@i500Z101506Z101512Z10151821=31609Z10160621016122101618210170P/Z101706Z101?12214)17182lei800z101806210z812Z101818Ziei9e0z10190621019122101918210200021020062102012z1020182102100210i?106Z10211.3z102118zBEST TRACK !J.4RNINGPOE7.e2.e8.?1:.:10,510.911 ..211.411.611.212.212,713.1i3 413.613.014.114.514.614.714.614.514.314,3i4. s14.715.11S.515.61s,816,216.616.917.317 717.918.218. S18 818.8.;I’T155.51S4.31s2.91s1 ,4149.9148,3146.6145,0143.6142.4l’1l. ?140,1139.0137.9136.7135.6134,7133,7132,4131.21,?9.9128.5127.31?6,3125.3124.31?!3,4ii!2,31::%,9119,4118.6117..7116.711s.41 %4,1:;::;109.4107.7106.0104.8WIND20 O.Gc25 0.025 @,@2s 0.%:: :3:35 0,04@ 0,045 11.5S0 11.6Ss 11.860 12,06S 12. 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FM .29.35 2: s!: 2!FIXSUPER TYPHOON DOTPoSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 21S6TELLITEFIXESFIXNO .TIME(z)FIXF>OSITIONACCRYDVORfIKCODECOMMENTSSITE$3456781:x ::131415161718$:212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484911120011160011180012000612040012060012@90012120012124612160012180012210013@00013040013043113060013@90013102713120013160@131716131800132387140000140300140600140900141200i4i6c3014170514180014210014210014224515000015004615030015055115060015090015094015120015160@1516S51S1800152039i52101d152223i6000SI5.SN 155.9E6.7N 155.5E6.9N 155.2E8.7N 153.8E8.5N 153.OE8.6N 153.OE8.8N IS2.8EEJ.ON 15i.5E8.5N 151.2Eg.6N 150.5E9.4N 150.t3EEI.7N 150.6E10.5N 148.8E11.4N 147.5E11.lN 147.7E10.9N 146.3E10.IN 145.9E11.lN 145.2E11.3N 145.lE11>4N 143.6E11. .9N 143.4Ell,SN 143.4E11.8N 142.5E11.9N 142.6Eil.8N 141.5E11,7N 140.8E11.9N 140.7E12.@N 140,6ElF!.5N 139.7E12.6N 138.9E13.lN 139.OE13.lN 138.5E13.2N 138.lE13.lN 138.lE13.2N 138.OEi3.iN 137.5E13.2N 137.2E13.4N 136.4E13.3N 136.7E13.7N 136.2El:i.6N 136. lE13.7N 13S.7ElE1.6N 13S.iE14. ON 134. lE13.6N 134.9E13.6N 133.9Ei3.8N 134.5Ei3.9N 133.9El’1.ON 133.9EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 2PCN 1PCN 1PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2T1. @/l,@Ti.5/l.5T1.5/l.5TZ.$/2.5T2.e/2.@+/DeT3.5/3.ST3.5/3.5+/DlT4.0/4.e+/D2.@/24HRST4.5/4,5+/DiT5,0/5.0?4.S/4.ST6.5/6.5TS.S/5.ST7.5/7.5-/D2/D0,5/28HRS/Di.e/24HRS.5/24HR8,0/24HRS.O/2SHRS/D1.5/24HRS/D2,S/24HRS/D1.6i/23HRS.S/24HRSINIT OBSINIT OBSULCC FIXULCC FIXULCCULCCFIXFIXULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXut.CC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIX.ULCC FIXINIT 0B5PSBL IR EYEIGGED EYE‘E 30 NM DIA RRGGED EVE‘E FIXIGGED EYEIIT OBS 12 NM DIR RRGGED EYE!FINED EYE:FINED 2@ Nfl DIA EYEPGTUPGTLiPGTWPGTblPGTUPGTUPGTUPGTUPGTUPGTWPGTUPGTLlPGTUPGTUF.ODNPGTUPGThlRODNPGTU::;:PGTURODNPGTuPGTUPGTUPGTldPGTUPGTtJRODNPGTUPGTURODNRODNPGTURPMKPGTURPMKPGTIJPGTuRPNKPGTUPGTWRODNPGTURPHKPGTuRPttKPGTu215

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BEST TROCK WC+RNIFiG~~{~W~~R121706218i712Z1217L8Zizisoez121&06Z16!1812Z1218182121s002121906212191221219182t2z000z1220062lezeizz12z018Z1=1OOZ1?!F?106Z122112212211821222002i222@6z1ZZ212Z12221s2i22300Z1223@6Z12231ZZ122318Zi224@0ZP051T9.2 140,09.4 139.49.7 138,810.1 138.310,4 137,818,7 137,311.3 136.9il.6 136.712,1 136.512.7 136.113.4 135.613.6 134.913.7 133.613.6 132,413,7 131.313,7 130,213.8 129.213,8 128,213,9 127.214.4 126,31s.1 12s,815.9 125.716.7 12S.717.4 126.1i8.1 1Z6.618,7 127.219.1 128.818.5 130.218.2 130.8u:)D POSIT w;:D0.0 e.oes 0,0 0.0 0,25 0.t3 0.035 10, S 13S.4 3::40 10.4 137.6 40,S0 10.6 137.0 50.55 10.9 13s.9 5560 11,3 136 2 6865 1.2,0 136.5 65.65 12.7 136,1 70.75 13.3 13S.8 7585 13,8 135.3 80.9s 13.6 133.7 95.1’2’J 13.6 132.5 100.100 13.6 131.3 100.90 13,8 130.2 95.85 13.8 129, ?2 95.75 14,0 128.2 85,65 13.9 127,1 75.6s 14. @ 126.2 75.65 14.6 12s.5 70,65 15.8 125.2 70.6S 16.7 125.4 65.65 17.5 125,6 65.70 18.1 126,7 7s7S 18,9 126.9 75.70 19,3 128.3 75.613 t9.9 1S’9. S 7e50 18.1 130. S 50.12:26.8.6.6,6.lZ:2~ :35.29,17.29,6.21.31,93.6.(ILL FORECIISTSWRNG &:R ;f;:R ~~;HR6VG FOREC*ST POSIT ERROR19,IWO RIGHT hNGLE ERROR 15, ::. 1::: 102:(+VG INTENSITY l’ltiQNITUDE ERROR 15,6VG INTENSITV BIfiS :: -6: -:$. -;:,NUMBER OF FORECRSTS 26 22DISThNCE TRfiVELED BY TROPICi4L CYCLONE IS 1444, NMRVERRGE .SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 9, KNOTSTVPH00N~4~~l-&LE4~~~~ 35 KTSw??:72-HR123. 2e1 159.1s 83. 124. 102.3, 14. 1s. 15.-6. -12 -;:.e:” 2218TYPHOON HOPEFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 25SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO.TIME(z)FIXPOSITION ACCRV DVORAK CODECOMMENTSSITE*123456789:!1213141s161718%Z1222324252627es2936313233343s36373839::4243444s46474849so%53S4Ss2.67,9N i38,3E9.3N 139.SE9.2N 14@.4E9>6N i39.7E9.8N i39.Z!E10,2N i38,6E10.8N 138>3E10.8N 137.7E10.5N 137,3EiO.7N 137.9EiO,SN 137.lEi@.6N 137.9E10,8N 137.2Eii.2N 137.lEii,ON 137.2E11.3N 136.5Eii.4N 136.SE11.6N 136.8E12.4N 136.3E12.8N 136.2E12.8N 136,2E12.8N i36.@Ei3.iN 13S.8E13.2N i3S.9Ei4.2N 135.7E13,7N 13S.SE13,7N 13S.3E13.7N 134.5E13.7N 134.iE14.lN 134.7E14.ON 133.SE13.8N i33.6E14.ON 133.2E13.9N i33.OE13.6N 13.2.5E13.7N i32.iE13.7N i3i.SE13.8N 131*3E13.SN 130.?E13.9N 130,SEi4.lN i30.2E13.9N 13@.OE13.8N i30a6E13.4N 129.8Ei3.GN i28.4Ei3.8N i28.3E13.7N i27.9E13.8N i28.iEi4.3N 127.9Ei4.iN 127.lE14.SN 126.5Ei4.5N 126.SE14.5N 126.4E14.4N 126.2E14.6N i26.OE15.ON i25.7EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PcN SPCN 6PCN 4PCN 2PCN 2PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 2PCN SPCN 6PcN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN ePCN 2PCN 2PCN 4PCN 2PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6:$; :T1.0/i.0T2.0/&!.0T2.@/2.0-/DiT2.f2/2.0T3.0/3,0T4.0f4.0T4.5/4.5-/Dl.S/24HRST4.5/4,ST4.S/4.ST4.S/4.5T4.0/4.0TS.OfS.0T4.5/4.5T4.5/S.0T3,5/4,ST3.tl/4.0.O/i9HRS/Dl,O/22HRS/D2.0/25HRS/DO.5123HRSIDO.S/24HRS/SO.0f24HRSAJe.S/24HRS/Wl,@/24HRS/W1.0/21HRSINITlNITOBSOBSULCC 12!.3N 137.6EINITOBSBANDNG TYPE EYEffi::N:B:VPEEYEDEVLPNG EYEINIT OBS DEVLPNG EYEEYEBANDNG EYEEVE 30NMINIT OBS B+lNDNG E’fEW& :::11RGDDVLPNGULCCULCCULCCEYEFIXFIXFIXEVEPGTWPGTUPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTwRPIIKPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTIJPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTUPGTUPGTLIRODNPGTURPMKPGTURODNPGTWPGTUPGTuPGTIJRPMKPGTIJPGTURPMKPGTUPGTUPGTWPGTUPGTWPGTIJPGTWPGTURODNPGTIJPGTuPGTWPGTWPGTUPGTUPGTwPGTURPMKPGTUPGTURODN;;;!226

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BEST TRACKPoSITIJ::D7,6 114.67,s 114.9 257,5 115. s 307,6 115. s 357.9 115.5 4e8.0 115.2 458.0 114.9 50;.: ;;::~ 556e7:3 114.3 65?..? 113,9 5s7.6 113,5 Se8.3 113,.2 4s8.6 11=.4 4s8,8 111.6 459.0 110.9 459.2 110.1 459.4 109.4 409.4 le8.8 3S9.0 108.3 3s8.3 107.9 307.6 1’J7,Z 306,8 106.6 306,i 10S,9 2SW)RNIMOPosITLI;:De.e 0.09.0 e.e e.0.0 e.e 0,e.e e.e 0.0.0 0.0 e.0.0 0.0 0.e.e O,@?.9 114. ? 6::7.9 114.5 60.8.0 113,9 60.8.0 113,7 60.7.s 113. s se.7.7 113.4 4s.7.s 113.1 45.8.0 112. S 4S.8.5 111.4 45.9,3 t09. ? 4s.s.6 109.2 4S.9,? 10B.5 4e.9,7 ies. i 35.;:: 107.6 30.0.0 e.e.e 0.0 e.0.0 e.e e.?2 NOUR FoRECIISTERRORSPOSIT U;ND _t& U;ND0.e 0,00.0 e.0 0. -e: e:0.0 0.0 :, -E. e.0.e 0.0 -’a. :.o.e O,e g: -e0,0 o.e . -e. e:0,0 0.09.4 ile,4 fig: 1;?: 3::9.s iie.2 6s. 154. 35.9.7 ie7.5 6S. 127. 35.9.s 107,3 ::; :L7~ ; $;;7.6 ile.3e.0 0.0 w. -0. 0.O.e e.e e. -0, :.O.@ 0.0 :. -e.0.0 0.0 -e. e:e.e e.e 0: -e. ~.e.e e.e g. -e.o.e e,e -e. ~;0.0 0.0 g; -Be.e e.e . ~g. e:e.e e.e e.e,e e,e :: -e: e.o.e 0.0 e. -0. e.*LL F~~~;~STSURNG ;;!2:R ;$;~RWC FOR ECeST POSIT ERROR:;; 1;:.WC RIGHT 6!NGLE ERROR ;$ S1hvG INTENSITV H.4GN1TUDE ERROR 2. 1:; 28.tlvG INTENSITV B16S 17: 2a.NUMBER OF FORECfiSTS 1:” i2 9 sD1ST6NCE TRI+VELED 2V TROPI CfiL CVCLONE IS 006, NMnvERflGE SPEED OF TROPICnL CYCLONE IS 6, KNOTSTvPU00N;4~;;LEUR~:e.e. 0. 0:e. 0. 0.0. e. g,e eOVER4~-HR35 KTS7:-HRe:e.0,0TROPICRL STORMFIX POSITIONS FORIRVINGCYCLONE NO. 26SRTELLITEFIXESFIX ~:~E FIXNO. POSITION fiCCR’f DVORAK CODECOMMENTSsiITE:3456781:ii1213141s16171s;:21$!242s262?2829%3233343536373a3940414243444s4647487.6N7.4N7.5N7.6N7,6N7.6N7.9N7.8N7.8N7.9N8.2N8.lN7.9N8.6N8.lN8.lN2.lNS.ON8.INS.ON7,9N9.2N7,7N8.lN2.2N8.2N8.6N8.7N8.7NS.8N8.6N8.6N9.ON8.9N9.ON9.3N9.ON9.3N9.SN9.4N9.3N9.6N9.lN9.4N9.4N9.6N9.3N9.SN8.lN8.3N7.8N7.9N7.4N7.3N6#8N6.7N7.GN::5152535455S65758596.SN5.9Nli4.SEi14.6EllS.lE114.7E114.9E115.3E115.5EllS.lEi15.OEllS.6E11S,2EltS.5E115.2E115,2E114.6E114.6E114.3EI14,3EL14.2E114.IE113.9E113.2E113.8E113.SE113.6E113.6E113.6E113.3Elll,SE113.2E112.6E112.OE112.lE11.3.lE111.4E111.SE111.4Ei09.9Ei10.3E1113.OE109.8E109.2Ei09.3E109.2E199.2Ei08.7E10S.8E108.5E108.8E198.3E108.1E108,eEl@7.9E107.SEle6.lE166.7E106.SEiOe.lE104.8EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN SPCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T1.W1.6Ti.5/l.5T2.5/2.5-/DlT3,e/3.eT2,5/2.s-/DlT3.a/3.0T3.5/3.5T2.5/3.12Ti2.S/3.0T2.S~3.OT2.5/3.0T3.EY/3,0-/D@T2.S./2.ST2.@/2.5T2.O/2.5T2.9/2.STSi.0/i.0.Sf24HRS.L3/24HRS/DO.5f2iHRSllJ9.S/24HRS/WO.S/22HRSAJB.5/24HRs/LJO.5/20HRS.5/i24HRs/SO.Si/24HRS/WO.S/24HRS/W1.0/24HRS/UO.S/24HRS/U2.0/27HRSINIT OBSINIT OBSINIT 08SP6RT EXP LLCCINIT 08SINIT OBSULCC FIXPART EXP LLCCPART EXP LLCCEXP LLCCPART EXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCC228

.OIRCRhFTFIXES::X u~c FIx FLT 7aeMB OBS ?MX-SFC-WND MfiX-FLT-LVL-UND CICCRY EVE EYE ORIEN- EYE TEMP (C) MsriPOSITION LVL HGT MSLP VEL/BRG/RNG DIRzVEL/BRG/RNG NAVZMIIT SH6PE DIFIM/TeTION OUT/ lN/ DP/SST NO.180114 7.9N 114.6E 150@FT 994 so 06’s 14 iso :: ;3; 14i 1B2116 7,2N 114,7E ?’ael’m 3044@90 4s s; i!3 1B2321 7.S!4 113. SE 70%MB 3023 se 6!50 4s i @e 41 070 10NoTICE - THE PSTERISKS I X ) INDICnTE FIxE6 UNREPRESENTATIVE eND NOT USED FOR BEST TRacK PURPOSES229

2. .NORTH INDIANOCEAN CYCLONE DATA-F&u:;{gt?052300205230620S2312205231f!z0524002052406z05241220524182e52seez0525962BEST TR&CKPOSIT16 ..2 ;::?16.617,1 &.417.7 tie 818.3 89.319,0 :9.719.7 90,0?0.5 90,421.4 90.922.5 91.223,9 91,6IJRRN1 NG )RECASTERRORSERRORSU?ND POSIT W~ND DST WIND 0s17DST LJ:;D;: 0.@ 0.0-0. 0. 0 .s o.e-e0.0 0,0 0. -0, ‘a o .0 ‘3.0-’s. 0,35 0.0 0.9-0. ‘a. o .2? @.@-e. ::4e 17.3 88.0 4:’ 52, 0. 1s .7 88.6–e.4S 17.8 88.9 45. 38, 0. 19 ,3 89 7-’2. 0.4s 12. s S8.6 50. 69. 5. 20 ,3 89.5-esO 19.8 90.0 50. 6. 0. 22 99.9-e. ::5S60E!O.521,090.290 45s60,11,37,0.0.@ ,:‘a .00.eO.e-e-0. ::60 22,4 91,2 60. 6. 9 ,e 0.0-e. 0.30 23,2 91,4 40, 43, 1:: 0 ,0 e.e-e. e.aLL F~~~~~STSWRNG 48;:R 72-HRAVG FOR ECCIST POSIT ERROR 33. 134, 0.AVG RIGHT 4NGLE ERROR 14, 29. e. 0.AVG INTENSITY MRGNITUDE ERROR 2, 11. 0, 0.(WG INTENSITY BIfiS 2. Ij. 0, 0.NUMBER OF FORECfiSTS 8 0 0OISTRNCE TRFIVELED BY TROPICflL CYCLONE 1SAVERfiG& SPEED OF TROPIC4L CYCLONE ISS15. NM9, KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE OIBFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 1SATELLITEFIXESTIME(z)FIXPOSITION DvORftK CODE COMMENTS SITE3.s.5.6.6.6.::7.7.7.7.l’.7.8.8.9.9.9.9.0.9.0.0.0.6!.0.2.;:3:3.4.4.4.PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6;:; gPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T1.5/i.5T2.S/2.ST2.O/2.OT3.0/3,0T3.0/3.0T2.S/2.5T3.0/3,0/DO.5/24HRS/Di.5/~4HRS/DO.S/24HRS/D@,5f24HRS/SO.0/24HRST3.5/3.S /DG!.S/24HRST3.5/3.S-/Di.O/24HRSULRC 17.4N 087.2EULCC FIXULRC 16.8N 89,1EULCC FIXULAC 18.4N 89.3ELILAC 19.lN 90.OEUL9C FIXULCC 18.4N 90.OEULFIC 21.9N 90.3EUL6C 22.6N 09i.4EPGTLIKGWCKGWCPGTLJKGWCKGIJCKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTUKGWCPGTWPGTIJPGTUKGLJCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTwKGuCPGTwPGTWKGWCPGTkKGWCPGTWPGTL!KGWCPGTWKGUCPGTLIKGLICKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDIC9TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES,~BEST TRfICK WARNINGPOS1 T wIND POSIT IJ;:D1s,1 67.4 30 9.0 0,01s.8 67.5 ~: O.e 0,0 e.16,5 67.6 0,917.2 67,7 4S 17.4 fi~:~ 4Z:17.9 67.8 4S 18,7 67,9 50.18.6 68.1 S@ 18.6 67,9 50.19.3 68.3 Se 18.8 67,6 S020.1 6B, S se 19. s 68.0 se.2e.8 68,4 4S 20.8 68.3 50.21.4 ~~:~ ~~ ~~:~ ~~:~ 50.22.1 4s2.2.8 68.4 40 22,7 68.3 45.23.3 68,5 3S 23. S 68,4 45.23.9 68.8 30 24,0 6B,4 35.24.4 69.0 25 24,6 6~:~ 30.24. S 69. S 20 0.0 ‘a.72 HOUR FOREC$ISTERRORSPOSIT WJ:D D:T bl~t,4D0.0 e.ee.e e.e 9. -e. e.e.e 0.0 e. -e. e.0,0 e.e g. -e. e.0,0 e.e -0. e.0,0 e.e e: -e. e.e.e o,e e. -e. 0.e.e e,e 0. -e. e.e.o e.e g. -e. e.e.o 0.9 -e. e.e.e 0,0 e: -e. e.0.0 0.0 e. -o. 0.e.’G e.e e. -e. e.e.e e.e e. -e. e.e.e e.e 0. -e. e.e.e e.e e. -e. e.RLL FIJ~~?~STS TYPHOON~4~~~LE4~~~~ 35 KTSlJRNG :;;UII 72;HR UR]G7~~HRFIVG FOREC.QST POS1T ERROR24. 61.e. e.I?VG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR14. 38. :: 0: e. e.e.WC INTEN51TY ?IFIGNITUDE ERROR4, 12. 1::e. 0. 0. e.AVG INTENSITV BIAS 1:. s. 0. 0. 0.e. e.NUMBER OF FOREC9STS 12’4 0 e e e e230

D15TflNcE TRfivELEn BY TROPI CAL CYCLONERvEReGE SPEED or TROPICAL CVCLONE IS1s 609. NM7, KNOTSFIxTROPICf4LPOSITIOt#SCYCLONE 02AFOR CYCLONE NO, 2SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)FIxPOSITIONACCRYDVORfIKCODECO?lMZNTSSITE*:;34567101112131415:$::::222324252606342617332706172717122805532813452818332821432902252905332910292913242918132921323002!353005123010183014443@175330230331014331045231142331183881043211.lN12.ON13.IN14.6t415.ON16.ON16.5N17.lN18.3N17.9N18.4N18.3N19.4N19.9N2cJ.5N21. .4N21.3N21 .6N22. ON22. 8N23. 3N23. 2N24.:N24.6N24.9N64 .6E66.4E69.OE69.SE67.iE67.OE67.8E67.6E68,4E68.lE67.5E67.4E68.6E68.8E68.8E68,3E68,0E68.6E68.lE68.7E68,4E68.3E69.lE68.7E70.2EPcN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN SPCN 3PCN 4PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 5PCN 5PCN 3PCN 5PCN SPCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5T1.5/1,5T1.0/l.5 /Wk3,5./24HRST2.0/2.0 /D1.0/24HRST3,0/3.0T3.0/3.L3 /D1.0/24HRsT3.O/3,@ /SO.@/24HRST2.O/3,0 /Wl,O/24HRST1T1S/2,S0/2,0/W1.5/24HRS/w1.O/24HRSINITOBSEXP LLCC ULAC 14.9N 66.@EEXP LLCC ULAC lS.2N 65.SEINIT OBS UL9C 15.9N 62.6EUL9C 17.4N 67,5EUL9C IS.2N G6.SEULAC 19.ON 67,1EULAC 2@,0N 67,7EULAC 20.9N 67,4EULAC 5!0.6N S5.SE *UL9C 21.lN 66,8EEXP LLCCEXPLLCCKGLICKGWCKGwCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGLICKGhlCKGLICKGwCKGUCKGwCKGUCKGWCKGwCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGLICKGWCKGIJCKGLICKGLICKGWCNOTICE - THE N3TERISKS (X)[NDCATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVEEiiEElAND NOT USED FOR BEST TRIICK PURPOSES.BESTTRCICKPOSITli, B 90.412.8 90.813,8 90,114,.? 88,614,6 S6.915,1 85,715,8 85.016,4 84.31?,.2 83.718,0 83.318,4 82.8WIND20 9.20 0.$; :.3s 14:40 14.45 16.45 16.50 17.se 17.35 18.W6RN1NGPOSITLI;ND@ 0.0@ 0,0 e,0 0.00~ 8$:2 sj;8 85.6 4@,84.1 45.i 133:: 45.; 82,7 ~;:5 82,9 3S.POE0.00,00.00.00.00.00,00,00,0000072 HOUR !=ORECRSTERRORSPOSIT U;ND DST W~NDe.’d 0,00.0 e.e e: ~:. e:0.0 0,0 e.e.0.0 0,0 Q, -e: e,0.0 e,e e, -0.0.e.e e. -e. e,~:~ 0,0 0. -e. e.0.0 0,0 e. -e. g:0.0 0.0 e. -e.0.0 e,e O, -e. e,0.0 e.e e. -e. e.nLL F;;c3~;STSWRNG48;HR 72;w7eVG FORECFST POSIT ERROR26. 141,fiVG RIGHT L)NGLE ERROR 20. 42, e: 0.fiVG INTENSITY MoCNITUDE ERROR 10. e. 0.$)vG INTENSITY LiIfIS -; : -1:. 0. 0.NUMBER OF FORECRSTS ‘a 0DISTfiNCE TRRVELED BY TROPIC,QL CVCLONE 1S 667. NMhVERACE SPEED OF TROPICfiL CYCLONE 1S 11, KNOTSTVPHOONS WHILE OVER 3S KTSLIRt+: 2jTHR 4gTHR 7;THR0. e, 0. 0.e. f). 0.e.63. e, 0.e.0c1 0 0TROPIC(4L CYCLONE 03BFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 3SATELLITEFIXESFIX ~~~E FIXNO. PoSITION ACCRY DVORAK CODECOMMENTSSITE081600 11.3N 91.5E PCN 6 T1.0/i.0PCN 6 T2.5/2.5PCN 6 T2.5/2.5 /D1.S/26HRSPCN SPCN 6PCN 5 T2.5z2.5 /Di.O/24HRSPCN 3PCN SPCN 6 T3,S/3.S /D1.0/24HRSlNITULCCINITlNITULCCULCCULCCULCCINITULCCULACULGCPARTULACUL6CUL9CULf)COBS ULCC FIXFIxOBS ULRC 13.5N @89.2EOBS13.8N 087.9EFIxFIX14.2N 1288.2EOBS ULfiC 14.4N 086.8EFIx15.8N 085.OE15,7N 084.6EEXP LLCC ULAC lS.3N (?83,i6.2N 083,iElG.4N 082.4E18.6N 6)80.lE18.6N 080.lEPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWKGWC;:;:PGTwPGTwKGWCKGLICPGTwPGTIJKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGIJCKG(JCKGWCKGUCKGIJC231

.25 120126 22.ON 78.4E PCN 526 120509 22,3N 77. 6E PCN 5KGWCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X)INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRFICK PURPOSES.~~;w~RPOSIT18.9 83.11615062 19.3 E18.51015122 19.7 88.01015182 20,2 87.410i6@OZ 20.6 86.8;:::;:; ::: j 86.285. sBEST TRACK LIARNINGWIND30 040 04s 04s 19se 2040 Ei25 ZzPOSITMIND.e 0,0 0,.0 0,0 0..0 0,0.8 87.9 4::.S 86,9 50..3 85,8 40..4 85.4 S!5.ERRORSDST w;ND-0.-B. 0.-0, 0.37. :.2!: 0:6. ‘a.24 HOUR FOREC6STERRORSPOSIT LUND _& IMND0,0 0.00.0 0.0 9, -0, 0,0,0 0.0 0. -0. L3,0.0 ‘a.0 0. -a. 9,0.0 0.0 0, -0, 0,0,0 0,0 :, -0. 0.0,0 0,0 -e, ‘a,AVG FORECF?ST POSIT ERROR 18. 0&VG RIGHT fit+GLE ERROR 8. @fIVG INTENSITY MoGNITUDE ERROR 0, 0RVG IttTENSITV B19S 0. 0NUMBER OF FORECfISTS 4 0DISTFINCE TRhVELED SW TROPICfiL CYCLONE ISGVERCIGE SPEED OF rROPICAL CYCLONE 1SRLL F~~CI~~3TSIJRNG 48;HR 72;~R296, NM0: 0:9, 0.9. 0,0 e8, KNOTS&; H”OONS WHILE OVER 3S KTS2j~HR 4~THR 75~HR0,‘a, 0, 0. 0.0, 0. 6. 0.‘a. 0, s+, 0.e o 0 0TROPICAL CYCLONE 04BFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 4S9TELLITEFIXESFIxPOSITIONf)CCRYDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITES1.8N 116.2E9*4N 116.4E9.8N 111.8E9.lN 109.6E10.8N lll,SE11.lN 111.4E13.9N 97. 6E14.4N 96.5ElS.3N 9S.lE17.5N 87.lE18.9N 89>1Ei7.ON 86,2Elg,4N 88,4E20. ON 87> 2E.2@.2N 87,1E21,1N 87, 7E21 .7N 85, SE21 .9N 85, SE22. 6N 85, SE23.3N 85. OEPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN SPCN 6PCN 6TO,S/0,5T@,S/0,5T1.5/l.STl,5/1.5T1.5/1,5Tl,O/1.5Tl>O/1,(3T2.5/2.5/lJ13.5/2sHRs/S@,O/24HRSULCC FIXINIT OBS ULCC FIXULCC FIX:1#: l==:ULCC FIXINIT 08SINIT OBS ULAC 14.8N @91.6EINIT OBS---KGIJCINIT OBS ULfiC 19.7N 086.?E KGWCUL6C 20.ON 086.5E KGUCKGIJCKGUCKGUCULAC 22.7N 984.9E KGWCKGIJCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X)INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENT6JTIVEAND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES,BEST TRoCK I. WIRNINGPOSIT12, s! 81.912,1 02.512.1 83.112,9 83,911. s 84,711,8 85,512,0 ::::12,512, s 85,912,8 85, s12.7 8S,012.6 84,412.7 x3,713,0 83,013.4 8?.0~.3:; :::;1s,4 79,816,2 7s,916.9 80.4WIND POSITw:~D2s 0.0 0.025 0,0 0,0 0.25 0.0 0.0 f!.2s 0.0 0.0 0.25 (lo 0.0 0.25 0.0 0.e e.25 ‘2,0 9.0 9,30 0.0 0,035 12. S 8S,4 3::35 12. s :8:: 40.35 12.840.40 12.8 84,4 45.4s i2. ? 83, S 45.50 12.1 83,1 55.S0 12.6 83.2 :=.S0 13.0 82.2~~ ;~:; 80.87S,6Ss :so3s 15.8 79,4 35.25 16. S 7S, ? 2s72 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSPOSIT U;ND D:T u~ND0.0 0.00.0 0.0 9, -e. e:0.0 0.0 e, -e. e.0.0 e.e e. -e. e.6,0 e.e e, -0. e.0,0 0.9 e. -0.0.e.e e.e 0. ~:. e.9.9 9.9 0. e.9.9 0.9 e. -e: 12:9.0 e,e g. -e.e.e e.e -e. e.9.0 e.e e: -ee.e e. -e. ~:e.e ::8 e. -e. .e.e e.e ~. -e.g.g:g e.e -e.e.e e: -e. ;:e.e e,e e. -e.e.e e.e e. -e. e:e.e e.e e. -e. e.ALL FORECFISTSIJRNG ;;4-:R ;2-HR 7z;HRFIVG FORECeST POSIT ERROR 47.FIVG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR 16. 71, 1@9, 0.AVG INTENSITY MfiGNITUDE ERROR 3. 12, 18. e.PVC INTENSITY BIAS 1;. 1:. 0.NUMBER OF FOR EC6STS 1:” @3S KTS72-HRe.e.0.e,0DISTfiNCE TRAVELED B’/ TROPICFIL C’,’CLONE 1S 843. NMFIVERfiGE SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 7. KNOTS232

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05EFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONENO, 55ATELLITEFIXESTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONAcCRYDVOR9KCODECOMMENTSSITE13@4271317081321531323S11404071408561412311416471421421501111503471508461S08461s12091S16271521311600S@16032616082916@8351613291616071621201700281?044717082417130817~728172107i8000711,8Nli.8N12,8N12.3Nil.8Nli.8N11.6N11,9N12,3NlF!.7N12.8N;::::12.2N12.8N1Z,4N12,7N12.5N12.ONi2,4N12.9N13.2N13.6N13.8N14.SNlS.2N15,4N16.5N1G,4N17.lNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCHPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNP CNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNTl,S/1.STl,O/1.5T2.S/2.ST2.S/2.ST2.5/2.5T3.0/3.0T3.0/3,0T4.0/4.0/WO.5/24HRS/D1.S/24HRS/Dl,O/241iRS/DO.S/24HRS/DO.5/24HRS/D1.GI/24HRsINIT OBS EXP LLCCEXPEXPLLCCLLCCUL@C 14.iN 086.7EULfiC 13,4N 086.7EUL@C 13,1N 086.3EINITOBSUL9C 12.ON 08S,6EULAC 11.9N OBS,lEUL9C PSBL 17,0N 082,iEKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJcKGUCKGIJCKGLJC::;$KGWCKGLJCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGLicKGWCKGUCKGIJCFJDGKGIJCKGwCKGIJCKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGLICKGIJCKGWCKGLJCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDIC*TE FIxES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST Tf?ACK PURPOSES.BESTTRfiCKPOSIT4.2 90,04.5 90,34.8 90,55.? 90,65.s 90.76,0 9L3,76.7 $10.47,2 89. S7,7 89.08,s 87, s9,3 86, S9.9 85.610.4 84,710,9 84,011,6 z3, e12,3 82,412,8 81.813,6 U1.114,2 XO.414,8 ?9,715, s 79 ‘aLMRNINGU;ND0,0,0,0.0,0.0.0.0,40.40.-4:.50:so,50.50.45.45.35.48 HOUR FORECASTERRORSPOSIT LUNI! DST U;ND0.9 0.0 -0.t3.0 @.o -0. 0:0,0 @.@ $: -8. 0,0,0 0.0 0, -0, 9,0.0 @.@ 0, -0, 0,0.0 O.@ 0. -0, e,0.0 o.@ 0,0.0,0 0.0 9, ::; 0,0,0 0.0 0, -0. 0,9.0 0.0 :: -0. 0,0,8 @.@-0. 0,0,8 O,a 0. -0. cl,0,0 0,s4 0. -e. (3.0.0 0,0 0. -0. 0.e.’a 0,0 0. -0. 0.0,0 0,0 0. -0. 9,0.0 0,0 cl. -~, @,0.0 0,0 0, -a, ~,0,0 0,0 0, -0, 0.0.0 0,0 -0, 0,0.9 0.0 :: -0, 0,72 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSPOSIT bl;ND D:T LI;ND0.0 @,o9.0 0,0 0, -0. 0:0.0 6,0 G). -0.0.8 0,.3 0, -0. ::e.o 0,0 e, -0. 0,e,O 0.0 e.0.0.0 ‘a,e ‘a: ::: e.0.0 0,00.0 e. ~:: ::0.0 ::$ 0,e,9,0 e,e e. -e:0,0 0,0 9, -0. ::e.o 0,0 e,e.0,0 8,0 0, ::: 9.0,0 ‘a. o e,@.0,0 0.0 0, -a :0,0 ‘a. e 0, -0. ::0.0e,e.@.@ ::: @, ::: 0,0,0 e.e ‘a, -e43,0 e,e 0, -0. ::6LL F~~~;;sTSI.IRNG48;HR 72;:R6VG FORECAST POSIT ERROR21, 113,AVG RIGHT QNGLE ERROR 16, 57, @: 0.AVG INTENSITY MAGNITUDE ERROR1,0, 0,AVG INTENSITY BICIS-::0,0.NUMBER OF FOREC(+STSi;”0 ‘aDISTflNCE TROVELED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 102S NMfIVERAGE SPEED OF TROPICCIL CYCLONE IS 9. KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE 06BFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 6SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO .TIME(z)FIxPOSITION ACCR’f DVORAK CODE COMMENTSSITEINIT OBSINIT OBS ULAC 03,7N 090,4EINIT 08S ULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT OBSULCC 04.ON @89.7EULCC 04.9N 091.3EULI’4C OS.ON 091,2EULAC OS.2N 090.7EFJDGKGWCPGTWPGTWPGTWKGLICPGTwKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGUCPGTWKGhlcPGTWPGTW233

* 161?18::212223:i2627_282930313233343536x 373839::4243444s46474849;:52535455!565758ae19zlal1438120031600a1626018c30B2t324‘ai?leoIooee1902310300ie3E510600109001090210910112001130311600116051180012156.20000200022@44620600i2080820859209002120021242.21600;;~:g30122304263@8483e84931221,:;:::40405408385.9N5.4N5.9N6.2N6,3NG.SN6.9M6.5N6.6N7.7N7.2N?.9N7.7N7.8N8.5N8.2N8.3N8.9N8.9N9.4N8.9N10.8N9.5N10.3NlD. ON10. ON11. SN10.4N9.8N10.4N11.4N10.9N11.9N12,4N12.3N12.6N13. IN12.5N12.8N14*1N14,6N14.8N15.6N89. @E90. 4E90. 6E90. 5E90. 8E9a.4E90, 6E90. 2E89.4E90. 2E89. 2E89. SE89. 3E88. 3E89. OE88.4E87, SE87.4E86. 8E86. 7E86. 4E85. 6E8S.2E85, 3E84. 9E85. OE84. SE84. OE84. 2E84.1 E84. OE83. 2E83. 7E83. OE82, 3E82, OE81 .6E81 .OE81 .3E80. 6E80. 5E78. 8E?9 , OEPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 3PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6UL6C 05.6N 089.7EUL9C aS.3N 089.6ET2.0/2.0 /D1.9/24HRST2.5/2.5 INIT OBS UL6C 05.6N 09c3.4EULAC 06.3N 090.3EULAC 06.8N 090.OET2.O/2.5 zWCI.S/24HRS UL6C 07.lN 089.4ET2.0/2.0/S@.0/27HRST3.5/3.5+/D2T2.5f12.ST3.L3/3.0T3.0/3.0T3.S/3.572.S/3.0T3.0/3.0T3.0/3.0.0127HRS/DO.S/24HRS/DO,S/24HRS/D1.0/25HRSfSO.0/24HRS/lJ@.5/24tiRS/W@.0/24HRSfDO.5/24HRSP9RT EXP LLCC UL9C 07.9N 088.ULCC FIXUL(4C 08.2N C187.lEUL12C 08.8N 086.4EULCC FIXUL6C 10.5N 084>7EUL9C 09.6N 08S,1EULfIC 09.3N 084.SEULAC 10.ON C183.9EULCC FIXULRC 11.lN 083.7EULCC FIXULAC il.ON 083.6EUL14C 11.3N 082.5EUL6C 13.9N 081.6EUL9C 13.4N 08@,6EUL9C 14,@N C)8@.7EULAC 15,0N 080,3EKGWCKGLICPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTLJPGTWKGUCPGTLIKGWCPGTWPGTWFJDGKGWCPGTwKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTIJKGWCKGWCPGTWFJDGKGwCPGTW;:;:PGTWKGWCKGWCKGbkCKGWCKGIJCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCFJDGNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXESUNREPRESENTATIVEfiND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES.234

3. SOUTH PACIFIC and SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE DATAll;l~~/~R11$)918z111OO6Z11101SZ111106ZIllllaz1112062i1i2iaz1113062111318Z11140621114182111s062I11518Zlli606Z111618Z11i706zBEST TRaCK UFIRNIt4G 24 HOUR FORECGST48 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSERROZ5ERRORSPOSIT WIND POSITw~:D _~~T lJ;~D POSIT lJ~:D DST wIND POSIT IJ::l, DST W~~D7.8 80.9 20 0.0 0.00,0 0.0-0,000 0.0 -0,8.6 ;,8,8 25 0.0 0,0 :. -0, 0, 0.0 %.0 0, -0, 0. 0 0 0.0 0, -0, 0.9.1 76,6 30 0.0 0,0-’a, ‘a. 0.0 @.@ 0, -0, 0. 0 0 0.0 0. -0. 0.9.4 74,2 3s 0.0 ;;-’a. 0. 0.09,9 ;’:; 45 10.0 7::: 3:’ -i:: 1::: 6?:? 5:: 53. s. 1: : 63. s 6:: 1;:: 2::10.4 45 10.5 88. B 40. 53: -:: ;::: 23: 5s, 75. 10. tl 8 59.3 70. 130. 35,11.1 :~:: ’44 ;$:: :g:: !ss: 24,60, 159, .??, 13.9 59.9 75. 263, 45.11.674. 1?5: ;~:~ ~&:~ .SS. 234.58. S 95. ?82. 65.12,3 61,0 :~;~.~61.7 45. 4s6L3 5: ::. : 51.9 39 34. 0.13,3 S7,7 58.1 40, 26. 5, 1::: 5g:: 3e: se. 0. 0,0 0.0 0. -0, 0.14.2 55,4 30 14:5 54.9 35. 34.0. -0. 0. 0.0 0.0 :. -0, 0.15,0 53,7 30 16.7 St:: 2;: 150. -z : 0,0 0,0 g: -0. 0. 0,0 0.0-0. :,15.7 g::~ 30 O.@ -0, 0, 0,0 0.0 -0, 0, 0.9 0,0 :, -@. .16,8 2s 0.0 0.0 0. -0. 0. %.0 0.0 0. -0. 0. 0.0 0.0 -0.17.8 50.6 E!5 0.0 0.0 0. -0. 0. 0.0 0.0 –e, 0. 0,0 @.@ 0 -0. ::18.6 ~~.~ 25 0.0 ‘JO 0. -0, 0. ‘a. o 0,0 :: -0. 0. 0,0 0.0 0 -0. 0,19,1 . 25 0,0 0,0 0, -0. 0. 0.0 0,0 0. -E. ‘a, 0,9 0,0 0 -0, 0,7Z HOUR FORECI?S’TERRORSPOSIT W~ND _t15T U~ND0,0 0.00,0 0.0 e. -0.0,0 0.0 0. -e ::0,0 9.0 0. -9. e,0.9 e,e 0, -e. e,0.0 0.0 0. -0. e.0.0 0.0 :. -e. e.9,0 e.o . -e. e,a.e 0.0-e. g.O.’a e.e :: -0,0.0 0.9 g, -e. e:0,0 9.9 -0. :.0.0 9.9 0: -e9.0 ‘a, @ 9, -e. ;:9.0 0.0 0, ~e.;:; e.m 0. -e.0,9 e. -e . ::fiLL F; IW$STSLJRNG ;E&:R 72;;RFIVG FORECAST POSIT ERROR 53. 105,aVG RIGHT ONGLE ERROR 18. 3B 78, 0.fiVG INTENSITY MfIGNITUDE ERROR 7, 14, 34. 0,FIVG INTENSITY B1fiS 2, 14, 34, 0,NUMBER OF FORECftSTS B 6 5 0D15TfINCE TRflVELED BY TRoPIC4L CYCLONE IS 2@z6 NMoVERfIGE SPEED OF TROPICI%L CYCLONE 1S 11. KN0T8TYPHOONS IJHILE OVERlJR~G 2~~HR 48-HR0,@. cf. 0.0. :,0. ~:o e’3S KTS72-HR0.0.0.‘a.0TROPICAL CVCLONE 01SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. iSfiTELLITEFIXESFIXNO ,FIxPOSITIONMtibmlDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITE;34*:7x:10x 1112iz15161718k:212223242526272829x %’323334x %!37383940416.4s6.1S5.9s6.9s8.9s10.1s8.3s8.5s10.4!3$),3!39.6S9.2s9.7s10.0s9,4s10.7s10,6$s10.4s10.6S11.0s11.2s11.6S12.0s11.3s11.3s11.6S11. ss11.7s12.6s12.8S11,6S1:1.2s13.2S14.1s14. ss17. ss15.6S17. ss18.3s18.0S19’.3sPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPcNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNT1.s/l.ST1.0/1,0T2.0/2.@T2.0/2.0T2.0/2.0T4.0/4.0+/D2T3.0/3.0T2.5/2.5T2,5/3.ST4.O/4.0T2.S2,ST2.0/2.5Ti.S/l.ST1.S/2.0Tl,S/i.5T2.0/2.0TO.5/l.5/D1.0/24HR5/s6!,0/2sHRs,@/24Hl?s/Dl,O/2414RS/DO.i/24HRS/Lll.S/24HRS/Di.0/24HRS/LJ@.S/24HRS/W@.S/25HRS/Sa,O/2SHRS/DO.S/24HRS/W1.S/24HRSINIT OBSINIT OBSULi?C 06.6S 080.7EEXP LLCC ULAC @8.lS @80.SEULflC 09.SS 078.SEULRC 19.2S 073.9EULC)C 11.8S 063.lEULfiC 11.0S 060.lEULAC 11.9S 060.SEUL6C 13.1S 0S7.3EUL9C 12.9S 056.SEULAC 15.1S 0S2.6EEXP LLCCEXP LLCC ULAC 19.8S 051.2EEXPLLCCNOTICE – THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVEAND NOT USED FOR BEST TRQCKPuRPOSES.235

ITROPICaL CVCLONE 0Z5BEST TRACK DRTfi I~~{~&’~~Rli?e218zi2e3e6z12e318z1.?a4e62ize4i8zi20se6zi20S18Z12068621S!86182i20706Z129718Z12e8e6zBEsT TRaCK Ll&RNING 24 HOUR FORECPST48 HOUR FORECnSTERRORSERRORSERRORSPOSIT LIIND POSIT IJ;:D DsT wIND POSIT W;ND DST WIND PosIT WIND DST LUND10.8 82.1 2S 0.0 0,0-0, 0, 0.0 0,0 -0. 0, 0.0 0,0 0, -e.12.0 ~1:~ 30 0.0 0,00.00. 0,0 0,0 ‘a –e, 0.13.2 40 13,0 8@,2 3:: ::: -:: 12:: 7’9,2 4:: 2:;; ‘5. 17.1 78.0 55. 32s,14.4 +7, ? 45 15,0 77,0 56. 38, 5, 1?. ? 73,9 89,25, 19.0 71,0 90 90. 3;:14.9 75,2 ~~ ;~:~ 7S,2 60. 24. 10. 16.5 ;;:? 86, .+2 25, 17,2 67,9 ::, :g.l: 45.15.7 73,573,2 65. 30. 10, 16,0 86, 146, 25, 17.1 6s,1S@.16.7 72,3 55 15,8 72,1 55. 55. 6, 16, S 6S. S 6S, 128, 20, 18.2 6s,0 75. 171, 45.17.5 71.1 5-; :;:: 71,0 Ss !3. 19.5 :;:: 68, 64, 20. ai.2 64,8 65. 78. 40,18 3 70.1 70,2 50. 1;: 5. 20,140, 81 10, 21.9 6~:~, 3:: 208, 10,19.0 69.0 40 19.3 69,2 45. 21. S, 21,2 67.6 35, 11S, 10, 0.0-0, 0,19.8 67. S 30 i9.9 67,3 35, 13. S. 21,2 63:8 20. 37. 0, 0.0 0.0 ‘a -0, 0.20.3 65. s 25 20,4 65,1 2s 4e. 0. o,e0. -0. 0, 0.0 e.e e, -e. e.20.7 64.2 20 0.0 0,6 0. -0. e, e.e o.e 6. -e. 0. e.e e.e e. -e, e.72 HOUR FORECf+STERRORS?0s1[T UIND DST W;:De.o e.e e. -0.e.e e.o ~. -0. e,o.e O,El -0, e,0.0 e.e e: -e. 0,o.e e.e 0. -0. e,e.o e.e e. -a. e,0.0 e.o 0, -0. e.o.e e.o 0, -e, e0,0 e.e 0. -e. O:0.0 o.e g. -e, 0.e.o e.e -0. e.e.e e.e e: -e. e.0.0 e.e e. -0. e.eLL F;;~;~STS TYPH00N~4~~;LE4g~~~ 3s KTsLIRNG ;;&HR 72;:RWRliG7~i?HRRVG FORECeST PoSIT ERROR29. 105.c+, e.RVG RIGHT flNGLE ERROR 2=; 76. 121: 0,‘e, e. 0,e.GVG INTENSIT’f MfIGNITUDE ERROR 16. 32, 0,e. e. 0, e,evG INTENSITV BIAS 1;. 3$. :, 0, 0. e.e.NUMBER OF FORECASTS i:’0e e 0DISTFINCE TReVELED BY TROPICfiL C’T’CLONE IS l?e8 NMAVERFICE SPEED OF TROPIC(+L CYCLONE 1S B KNOTSFIXTROPIC(IL CYCLONE 02SPOSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO.2SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO .FIxPOSITION 9CCR’# DVORAK CODECOMMENTSSITEi3456789::1213:2::184:212.2.332425262728.?93e31X 3233343s363738394041* ::4445::::se5152x ;:5556S7S859:?6263PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PcN SPCN 3PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 2PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 3T1.0/l.0T1.5/l.571.5/1.5T1.S/l.5Tl,5/1.5Ti.5/l.5T1.5/l.ST2.5/2.5T1.5/i.5T2.0/2,0T2.0/2.5T2.5/2.5Tl,O/i.5+/W@.5/24HRST2,S/2.5T2.S/2.5T4.0/4.0+/Di.5/llHRsT3.0/3,0/D0,5/24HRS/SO,O/24HRS/D1.0/25HRS/W@.S/24HRS/WO.5/24HRS/D0,5/i4HRs/D0,5.f24HRS/D@,S/25HRSINITINITULAClNITULCCINITINITULfiCULCCULACINITLILACULCCINITULACULfiCULCCUL17CUL$ICULCCULRCUL6CULfiCULRCUL9COBS ULAC 06.8s @189.5E08S08.0s 088.8E06S ULCC FIXFIX06S06S ULCC FIX:~x8S 081,6E10.SS 079,8EOBS10.3S 081.OEFIX06S09.9S 081.2E11.3S 08@.3EFIx10.8S 080.OE11.8S 081.9EFIXi2.iS 078.8E13.8S 079.7E14.8S 07B.3E15.1S 076.2E14.0S 076.OE72.S/2.5 /S8,L3/24HRSLILAC 16,0S 073.5ET3.O/3.0 INIT 06S EXP LLCCULAC 16,4S 073,0EEYE FIX UL6C 16.9S 073.0ET3,s/3,5 /s@,9/16HRsT3.s/3.5 /D0,5/24HRSULAC 17.9S 071.2EEXP LLCC ULfiC 19.4S 071.3ET2.S/2.5 /S@.0/14HRST2,0/3.0 /W1.5/24HRS EXP LLCC ULAC 20.0S 071.7EEXP LLCCT2.0/2,S-/W0,5/llHRSEXP LLCCEXP LLCCTO.S/l,S /Lll.5/25HRS EXP LLCCEXP LLCCExP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCKGWCPGTWKGLICPGTwPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCKG(JCKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWFJDGPGTwKGWCKGWCFJDGPGTWKG(JCKGIJCPGTWPGTWPGTWKGWCFJDGKGWCKG(JCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGIJCKGUCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKG(JCKGWCFJDGKGUCKGIJCFJDGKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCNOTICE - THE fiSTERISKS (x)INDICf3TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TR#ICK PURPOSES,

;:{:WD~~R1208182i 2090621209182121006212101821211962li?ll18z1212062121Z18ZBEST TRfiCK LIORNINGPOSITB,4 98, S9.7 100,610.8 102,211.9 103.713.0 10s,114.1 106,815,9 16!9.6lB.0 112,620,0 11s.621,5 118,0WIND0,0.0.3::4s,45,4s4s20,24 HOUR FORECfi STERRORSERRORSDST U;~DISIT LI;~D tJST u;yr-0. e.cc 0,0 -e-0. 0.0 0.0 ‘a. -0. 0.-0. :: 0,0 0.0 0. -0. 0.-’a. El. 0.0 @o 0. -0. 0.35. 0. 13.7 1e7,2 55. 192. 10.‘a. 15. s 110.6! 65. 204. 2@.4:: 0. 18.0 114,3 :2. : 141, 15.24, 0, 22.4 117,7 57. 5.29. 5. 0,0 @.@ 0, -0, 0,66. -5. 0.0 0.0 0, -0, 0.)0.0,0.48 HOUR FORE CFISTERRORSPOSIT W; F+@ _TJ5T L!~:D0 0.00 0,0 0, -0. 0,0 0,0 0. -0, ‘a,0 0,01:: 8 109. S fig: 4;:: 2::16, 8 llj+:~ S:. 388. 60,e. 0 -0. e.e. 0 0.0 -0,0 0,0 :: -0, :::: 0 0,0 0. -’a, 9.P050.00.00.00.00.00.00.90.00.00.0?2 HOUR FORECflSTERRORSIT U;ND DST IJ;NDO.@-’a0.0 -0, e,0.0 :: ~:: 0,0.0 E),9.O.e 0, -0. e,O.’a 0, -0.::: 0, -e ::-0.@.@ t: -0. ::0.0 e, -0, 0,ALL F~~~fi~STSWRNG 48-HR 7Z;;R.QVG FOREC.4ST POSIT ERROR;:. 148. 4:;flVG RIGHT GNGLE ERROR 46. 0.AVG INTEFiSITV NAGNITUDE ERROR 2: 13, 43: 0,F?VG lNTENSITV B16S 0. 13. 43, e,NuMBER OF FOREChSTS 6 4 2 0DIST/kNCE ‘TR6VELED BY TROPICAL CVCLONE 1SC+VERI+GE SPEED OF TROPICAL CVCLONE IS1375. NM13. KNOTSTWPHOONS WHILE OVER 35 KTSIJR;G ?:~HR 4il~HR 7;~HR0. 0. e. ‘a.0, e. 0. e,0. 0, :. 0,‘a 0 0TROPICAL CYCLONE 03SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO3SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO .TIME(z)FIXPOSITIONAcCR’f DVORRK CODE COMMENTSSITE::56;,x 91011x ;:::1718$:* 2122232425262728293031323334353637::4041421:4s4647487.9s 97.9E8.4S 98.2E8.7s9,6S98.2E99. 7E!),7S 100.OEs.6S 100.1E10.3S 100.9E10.6S 101.8E10.7S 103.7E10,8S 102.7E1~..4S 102,SE11.2S 103,3E11,3S 10S.lE11..9S 103.8E12.SS 104,2E12,6S 104.OE12.SS 104.1E12.5S 10S,4E12.6S 104,5ElZ.8S 10S.2E13.7S 104,3E13.9S 10S.9E13.5S 106.4E14.1S 106.7E13.8S 106.7E13.8S 107.OE14.0S 108.OE14.1S 107.4E14.8S 108.5E14.1S 107.7EiS.4S 109.5E1S.7S 109.2E16.6S 109.9E1S.7S 109.8E16.7S 111.3E16.9S 11O.GE17.8S 112.SE17.4S 111.3E18.1S19.2’5112.OE113.6E18.9S 112.9E1S.8S 114.OE19.3S 113.9E19.75 115.OE19.4S 114.8E20.2S 116.9E20.9S 117.4E21.7S 118.9EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4T1.0/1,0ULCC FIXINIT 06S ULCCIJLCC FIXT1.0/1,0 INIT OBSULCC FIXT1.0/l.0ULCC FIXINIT OBS UL9C 10.3s 102.BET1.S1.5 /D0,5.,27HRsuLCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXT2.0/2.0 /Dl,O/24HRSUL9C 10.7S 103.8EULCC FIXULCC FIXT2.S/2.5 /Dl,O/21HRST2.S/2.5 /D1.5/24HRS ULAC 12.2S 10S.6EULCC FIXULCC FIXULRC 14,4S i@S.2EULAC 13.0S 10S.6EULCC FIXT3.0/3,0INIT OBS lJLfiC 13.4S 106.3ET3.0/3,0 /D1.0/22HRs ULCC FIXULCC FIX;~l~ :~k2S 107.6ET3.S/3.5T2.S/2,5/D1.O/24HRS/SO.0/27HRSULCCULCC FIXT2.5/3.S /lJO.5/24HRST3.0/3.0+/SO .O/24HRS ULCC FIXULCCUl,fiCFIX1,2.5S 111.OEULCC FIXUL6C 19.6S 115.lET2.S/3.5 /W1.@/24HRS ULGC 22.0S 116.9EFIXFIXPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTWKGIJCPGTwPGTwPGTWKGUCPGTwPGTUPGTWPGTwKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCKGWCPGTLIKGWCPGTwPGTwKGWCPGTwKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGT(JKGLJCKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTIJPGTIJKGIJCPGT~JKGWCPGTwPGTIJKGWCPGTLJPGTwPGTWSYNOPTICFIXESFIxNO.TIME(z)FIxPOSITIONINTENSITY NEARESTESTIMATE DIIT6 (NM) COMMENTS1121B0022.6S 117.9E020 130 94312 94300NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE .(AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRfICK PURPOSES237

~~;;W~;R120818Zi20906Zi209i8Z1?100621210182121 106z1211iaz1&!i2436Z1.21218Z12i306Zi2i318ZBEST TRACK IJF7RN1NGPOSIT WIND POSIT (J; :D10.1 131.7 25 0,0 0.010.3 130,5 30e.o 0.11.1 130,3 3L3 ~:~ 0,0 0,11. s 131,1 30 0,0 e.o 0.11, s 1:3?.2 25 0.0 0.0 ‘a.11.7 133,3 25 0,9 00 0.12.8 13s,7 25 0.9 0.9 0.13, S 13S,6 30 0,0 0.014,3 139,2 35 14.1 139.7 3:”15.0 138,6 30 14, Z 139,1 30.15.8 138,4 2S 15. ? 138,9 30.16,7 138, ,? 20 16.4 138.5 20.ERRORSDs’1 lJ&lD-0. 0.-0, 0. 0,-0. 0. 0.-0. 0. 0.-0. 0. 0,-0. e, 0.-0. 9, 9,-0. :, 0,31.5s. 0: i::29. 5, :,2s. 0,0.:00@e0,00,0%0000,0@e000.00.0hVG FOREC6ST POSIT ERRoRQVG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR6VG INTENSITV MAGNITUDE ERRORflVG lNTENSITV B16SNUMBER OF FOR EC6)STSfILLLIRNG35.19.1,1.4DISTfiNCE TRGVELED 8Y TROPIC&L CYCLONE IS4VER/IGE SPEED OF TR0PXCf4L CYCLONE 1S84S, NM6. KNOTSTYPHOONS WHILE OVERWRtiC 2~-lHR 48-HR0,0, cl.0, 0, ;;0. 0.0 0 0TROPICAL CYCLONE 04PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 4SATELLITEFIXESTIME(z)FIxPOSITION6CCRYDVORAK CODE COMMENTSSITE:),3s 135,2E10.8S9,9s133.3E131.7E$),8S 131. sE10.2s 131.6E10. SS 129.2E1[).3S 131.8E10.3s10.4s131.5E131,6E10.5S i31,4E10.8S i31.@E10.8S 130.5E10.9S10.8S130.iE131,1E10.7S 129.4E11.0S 132,5E11.2S 132.5E11.1S 132,6E11.0S 131.8E11.1S 132,8E11.6S 131.4E11.0S 133.lE11.2S 133.@E1:!.6S 136.lE12.9S 134,9E1:+.SS 137.6E:2.9S 137.OE1:1.6S 138.2E13,8S 139,7E14.0S 139,7E1’I.EM 139,6E13.7S 138,7E14.0S 139,1E13.9S 139.2E13,9S 139.6E1’1.1S 140,0E1:1.8S 138,2E13.9S 138.2E14.1S 138.lE12.6S 138.OE14.1S 137.3E14.8S 135,4E14.9S 138,8E1S.3S 137.SE14.3S 138.5E16.3S 138,9E17.4S 136,2E1S.3S 135,3E16.1S 138,9E16.8s 136,8E1[:.0S 137,3EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN sPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6Per+ 5PCN 6PCN Spcri 6PCN 5PCN 6pcri 6pcr4 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6pcrq 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6pcr~ 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN ST1.@/l.OTO,@/0.0T1.S/l.5 /DQl,5,’2411?ST1.0/i.0-/Dl,o/2IHRsT2.0/2,0T2.5/2.5T1.5/l.5T1.5/2.0/D1.O/24HRS/D0,5/24HRS/Wt3,S/26HRSINIT OBS ULAC 09,2S 134.7EINIT OBSUL6C 10.0S 132.4EULCCULCCINITFIxFIXOBSULCC FIXULAC 11.9S 132.5EULCC FIXULCC FIXT2.5/2.5 /SO,@/25HRS ULAC 11.3s 134T2.0/2.0 /D0,5/24HRST2.0/2,0 INIT OBS ULF)CT1.O/l.S /W0,5/24HRSULCCT2.0/2.0-/Di.0/24HRS ULCC FIXT3.0/3.0T2.@/2.@T2.5/2.ST1.5/2.0+/WO.S/24HRST2.S/3.0T1.5/2.0/Ll@.5/24HRs/L10.S/24HRSFIXUL9C 14.0s 14@INIT OBS LILACINIT OBSlE2.0S 134.6E3E3.3S 139.lEULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT OBS ULfIC 12.9S 139.3EULCC FIXUL6C 12.6S 139.lEULCC FIXEXP LLCC ULP!C 12.0s 130.4EULOC 15.8S 140,8EULRC 1S.4S 136.5EKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCKGWCPGTWKGLICKGWCPGTwKGWCPGTwKGWCPGTwKGWCKGwCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTwPGTwKGWCPGTWPGTIJKGWCPGTwKGIJCPGTWKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCKGWCPGTWKGWCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRfICK PURPOSES.238

~;f3;;;;Rls1330’Gz122312Z1224002li224t2zla!seez122512Zi226e@Z122612Z1227eez122712ZBEST TR/4CK IJfiRNINC 72 HOUR FORECASTERRORS;IT u;ND DST IJ;:D0.0 -0.e.% 6. -0.0.0 0, -0. ::0.0 -0. e.0.0 :: -0. 0.0.0 -0. e.0.0 :: -0.e.e ‘G. -0. ::POSIT w~~D POSIT U;ND1?. s 12e,9 0.0 e.e1?, S 121.7 3e 17.6 12i.8 4e.1?.7 120,7 40 18.2 120.6 se,17,6 119.6 50 17.9 119.8 55.17,6 118.5 60 17.7 118.3 75.17,5 117.8 70 17.6 117.5 80.17, s 117.5 75 17.8 1.16.6 80.18,3 117. S 7S 18. S 117,3 70.19,3 117,8 65 19.2 117,8 65.20.4 118.5 50 .30.1 118,7 69.21,4 119. S 3% al.6 118.9 30.Po$@.0e.o0.00.0e.ee.o@.@e.e0.0e.0e.fd0, -0. :.:::-’a0.0 :: -0. e:JILL FORECIISTSURNG 2~;:R ;4;*R 72;;R6!VG FORECfiST POSIT ERROR22.hvG RIGHT ONGLE ERROR 19. 66. i:;: 0,hVG INTENSITY MAGNITUDE ERROR 7, 13. 0,AVG INTENSITV BIAS %$. 2:. 0,NUMBER OF FORECASTS 1$’ eDISTANCE TRAVELED IA’ TROPICaL CYCLONE ISfiVERtlGE SPEED OF TROPICI?L CVCLONE IS569. NtlS. KNOTSTVPH00N~4~lJ;LE4~~~~ 35 KTSwR~:7:-HR0, e.0, 0, e. @:0, 0, 0, 0,0. 0, e. 0,0 0 e 0TROPICfiL CYCLONE 5SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO sSATELLITEFIXESFIXNO.TIME(z)FIXPOSITIONACCRYDVORfiK CODE COMMENTSSITE:le1112131415161718$:212223242s2627.282930313233343s3637383946!414243444s4647:::!S25354SsS6S7S8’59:;62::17,25 i23.OE17.5S 122.8E17.7s 122.6E17.4S 12i?.6E1?.3S 121.6E17.3S 121.8E17,SS 121,.2E17.6S 121.OE17.7S 128.8E18.0s i20.8E17.9S 120.7E17.7S 120.4E17.4s 12e.4E18.0S 120.6E17.7S 119.8E17.6S 119.3E17.6S 119.2E17.5S i19.OE17.3S i18.7E17.7s 118.6E17.8S 118.3E17.6S 118.3E17.8S 118.3E1s.0s 118.lE17.6S 118.IE17.6S 117.9E17.7S 117.5E17.4S 117.6E17.4S 117.6E17.4S 117.4E17.6S 117,1E1’7,5S 117.lE17,8S 116.9E1S,1S 116.9E17.9S 117.6E18.2S 116.9E18.2S 117.lE18.1S 117.2E18.SS 116.7E18.3S 117.9E18.3S 117.4E18.7S 117.6E18.7S 117.9E18.9S 117.5E19.1S 117.5E19.2S 117.4E19.3S 117.5E17.8S 117.2E19.3S 118.OE19.6S 118,1E19.7S 118.4E19.9S 118.3E20.0s 118.IE19.9S 118.7E20,3S 119.5E20.3S 118.4E20.5S 118.2E2s!.7S 118.7E20.9S 118,5E21,8s 119,3E21,2s 118!6E21.6S 118.8E21.4S 118.9E21.0S 120.2EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PcN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 2PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 1PCN 2PCN 1PCN 2PCN 2PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN SPCN 4PCN SPCN 4PCN 5PCN 5PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN SPCN 4PcN SPCN 4PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4T2.E$/2.0T1.S/l.5T2.S/2.5T3.Sf3.ST3.0/3.0T4.0/4,0T4.0/4.0T4.5/4.STE.Sf3.0T4,S/4.5-/DeT4.S/4.5T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS/Dl,S/27HRS/D1.5f24HRS/D1.@/24HRS/w1.k3/2SHRS.5/24HRS/SO,O/24Hf?S/WO.5/25HRSINIT OBS ULCC 17.4S i22.4EINIT 08S ULAC 17,3S 121.3EULCC 17.7S 120.9EULAC 17.8S 120.6EEYEINITINITE’fEEYEFIX09SOBSFIXFIXEVE DIA 24NMEYE FIXEYE DIA 18NMEVE DIA 10NM ULCC FIXEYE D161 L36NMULCCULCC FIXT’2.0/2.S /UO.5/24HRST3.5/4.5 /LllsO/24HRS ULCC FIXULCC FIXULCCEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPFIXFIXLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCC

RIIDARFIXESFIXNoFIX EYE EVE RRDOB-CODEPOSITION RRDfiR RCCRY SHF!PE D16!M 6SLIflR TDDFFCOtlMENTSRhDhRSITEPOSITION UliO NO,:34567E232200240400241 O’J6241600242200260100260800?6160017,5S 119.9E17.6S 119,1E17,6S 118,5E17.65 118,1E17.4S 1i7, GE18.6S 117.3E19,3S 117,5E1$),5S 117.7E1/4// /.270731111 /.s!70s2/8// /27042//// /2904Z//// /1S041/3// /17101/9// //40SSYNOPTICFIXESFIXNO;;~EFIX INTENSITY NESRESTPOSITION EST IMfYTE DnTA (NM) COMMENTSi24060017.6S ii8,8E 060 @lo 942@?NOTICE - THE FISTERISKS ( * ) INDIC9TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE 6ND NOT USED FOR 8EST TRflCK PURPOSES.TROP x CRL CVCLONE efipBEST TReCK DfiTfiI!110/Dn/HR122s1221&!2700z1227122laz8eez12 Z812Z1229002BEST TRfiCK u!lRNING 24 HOUR FORECeSTERRORSERRoRSWIND POSITu;:D DST W;:D POSIT W;ND &’T W;ND-0, 0,0 @e40. 2s s,6 lB1.9 Ss: 199: 15:POSITB.4 17S,68.0 180.09.7 lsO. s11. B 181,013.1 181,912.7 18Z,63a 0.0 0,040 8.4 179.94s 9.1 180.840 10.7 18t. i3S 11.7 18i. SeS 12.7 182.540. 40, -~: 10,0 18e.0 30, 1s6. -s3s 66. -~: 1~,~ 18~:~ 2S. 19. 0.3s 87.0, -’a, :,30. 6. s. 0:0 0.0 0. -0,48 HOUR FDRECfiSTERRORSPOSIT W~ND D:T LKNO0.0 e.e9.0 18::: s:: ?3s, 4~e.e -e. .O.e 0.0 :: -0. e.@.e 0.0 -0. e.0,0 e.e e -0. e.72 HOUR FORECnSTERRORSPOSIT u~ND K#T U~NDe.o e.e0.0 0.0 ~: -e: e:e.e e,e-e, e,0,0 e: -e. e.~:; e,e e. -e. e.0.0 0.0 e. -e. e.fILL FORECfiSTSuRF4G ;j;HR ;;3HRavc FORECAST FOSIT ERROR 45.4VG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR F!6 90. 206.IIVG 1NTENSIT% MaGNITUDE ERROR 3. 7. 49,(+VG INTENSITV BIRS -; 3, 4:.NUIIBER OF FORECFISTS 3T’fPHOONS UHILE oVER 3S KTS&4Rti: 2~~HR 43~HR 7;-HR0. e. 0, e:0. e. e. e.e. e. e.e.ee e eDIST6NCE TRi4VELED 8V TROPIC(+L CYCLONE 1S 464. NMRVERRGE SPEED OF TROPICfiL CYCLONE 1S S KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE BGPFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 6SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO .TIME(z)FIXPOSITIONfiCCRVDVOR9K CODE COMMENTS SITEk345:E1:1112* ::* 15X 16* 17* 18::21x 22X 23X 242526000026030026060026090026120026160026180026210026220@27000027030027060’ZI27060027090@2710002712002721002721002800002803002806002809002810002812002823008.8S 177.9E9,0S 177.9E9.1S 178.lE9.0S 177.9ES.7S 17Ei.6E8.7S 178.9E8.1S 179.lE8.1S 1?9.4E8.1S i79.8W8.3s 179.9E8.6s 179.EW2.8s 179.7WS.2S 179.8W7.5s 179.7W7.SS 179,6W7.5s 179.7W9.9s 179.7W9.5S 179,81J12.2s 179.Ow12.8S 178.61J13.2S 178.7W11.8s 17E.EW11.7s 178.lW11.6S 178.3W12,7S 177.8WPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T1.c3/l.0 INIT OBST2.S/2.5T1.S/i.5T3.0/3.0Ti.5/l.ST3.0/3.@TO>O/1.0/D2.0/24HRS/SO.0/24HRS/S@.0/24HRS/W1.S/26HRSuLCCULCCULCCULCCINITINITFIXFIXFIXFIXOBSOBSuLCCFIXULelC 07.8S 179.4ELILCC FIX 07.7S 179.9EULAC 07.8S 179.8EULCC FIXULf)C 07.1S 18e.oEULCCFIXEXP LLCCEXP LLCCULCC 11.7SULCC FIXULCCFI”X17E.7L!PGTWPGTWPGTWPGTLIPGTLJPGTWPGTWPGTUKGIJCPGTWPGTwPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGThJKGIJCPGTUPGTUPGTLIPGTWKGUCPGTUKGWCSYNOPTICFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONINTENSITY NEfiRESTESTIM6TE DATA (NM) CO14MENTS;26120026180(38.4S 178.9E8.8S 17E.EE045 010 LIMO 91643035 030 WMO 91643NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRfACK PURPOSES.

Iii? OPICfi L CVCLONE 07PBEST TRRCK DRTaI!KJ~I;~;R-.122606z122618212270621227182i2a706z1228182122906ZBEST TR9CK 24 HOUR FOFEC/. ST 48 HOUR F@ RECfl STERRORSERRORSPOSITLIIND DST W1_D POSIT WINE EST LJIND.0 0.00. -c. 3. 0 0 0.@ @ -e. e,@ G.ae. -e. a. o 0 es 0 -c. 0,0 0.02 C* 0.0 01 15? 2,93. 2&; 161s 3;. + 4a.:2 154,215 0.0 0..S 15S.435@0 0,0 0 -e. @,0 161. @Q.@o O@@ -e, 0.,0 164.1a e@ 0.0 @ -e, 0.POSIT12.7 145, .13.8 147,815.2 150,516,6 1S,2. S18.4 155.320,3 1s8.122,1 160.925,0 164, .2.-,. -..+W~ND D:,- *~M~ P9S IT+: e. 0.0 0.0e. 0. 0,0 $3 Q-@ e Oe 0.04:: 31 -5 18,6 !57.750 64. -15, 2i,4 15E. E;;: 1e7 -:, 2::: ls:::;.40. 0 0,0 O,@72 HouR FOR ECRSTERRORSPOSIT W;:D DST u;:D@o 0.0 -0,@.o %.0 0, -0. 0,O@e @o. -e@e @.@ 0. -0. ::9 0 :,$ 0, -’a, 0,0.0 c1 -0.‘a.’a %.0 e. -0. ::0.0 @.e 0. -0, e,eLL FOREW!STSURNG ~;.$uR +&lR 72;:RFJVG FOREC63ST PoSIT ERROR 43.(3vG RIGHT fit+GLE ERROR 22. 4s 57. 0,flvG INTENSITY Nf)GNITUDE ERROR 17. 40. cl.FIVG INTENSITY BIAS -~ : 1;. 4:. :.NUMBER OF FOR ECtiS?’SDISTkNCE TRfivELFD BY TROPICfiL CVCLONE IS 1322. NMAVERIIGE SPEED OF TROPIChL CYCLONE 1516. KNOTSTWH00N~4~fl~LE OVER 3S KTS(JRNG 48-HR 72-HI?0. ‘a 0. 0,0. 0. e. e.0 0. 0.a. 0. ‘a0 0 0e.e.8TROPICAL C’fCLONE 07PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLCINE NO7sATELLITEFIXESFIXNO.FIXPOSITION $ICCRY DVOR9K CODE COMMENTS SITE$345x67x !1011x ;$141516x 17182:2122’23242s26%29%32333435* :?X 38* 39404142432.1s2.3s2.6s:J 0s3, 0s2.0s3!3s3!9s3.0S4.8sSOS3. 0s5.1s4.3s6.1S‘}.9s5.0SS.ss6.0s5.9s6.1S7.4s6.6s7.5s7.1s7.9s8.1S8.SSE.8S8.9S8.9sSl,ss1,3s0.7s1.9s1.3s2.5S3.4s3. 2s;2.6S!s.9s:7.3s11,2sPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PcN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3T1.5/l,S INIT OBST1.0/1,0T1.5/l.5ULCC FIXINIT 08S UL6C 13. .3S 149.4EINIT OBSULCC 15.1S 148.7E~~~~ #~xlS 148.4ElJLCCFIXULCC FIXT2.S/2.5 /Dl,O/24HRSULIIC 17.0S lS1.6ELILCC FIXULfIC 17.2S lSI.2EULCC FIXT2.S/2.5 /D1.5/24HRS UL6C 16.9S lS1.2EULCC FIXT3.C!/3.C! /D1.S/24HRS;~;~ :~x4S 152.3EULCC FIXT3.0/3.0lNIT OBS ULAC 17.3s 1S3.0SUL14C 18.5S 1S3.7ET3.S/3.5 /D”i.0/24HRS ULCC FIXT3,5/3.sT4.0/4.0T2.S/3.0T3.5/3.S-/S’dT2,0/3.0/D1.O/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/WO.S/22HRS.0>22HRS/Wi.5/24HRsLILCCULCCULCCULCCULCCULCCEXPFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXLLCCPGTWPGT(JPGTWPGTWPGTWKGUCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTIJPGTIJKGIJCPGTLIPGTWKGWCKGLICPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGT(JKGLICPGTWKGWCKGLICNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRfICK PURPOSES.241

MO/D fi/HR1.?2612Z122700z122712Z122800z1F22812Z122900z122912Z1 ?3@00ZBEST TRACK WfiRNING 24 HOUR FOFECPSTERRORSERROR>POSITwIND POSIT IJ;:D D5T W;ND POSIT WJND _IJST LIIND11.4 1G5 0 20 0.0 0,00.0 0,00.12.1 lGG.4 25 @.@ 0,0 :: -0. 0, 0,0 O.@ 0, -e, a13.7 16?.3 30 0,0 0,0-0, 0. 0,0 0 !3 o, -0, a.15.4 1S8.3 30 0.0 0,0 0, -e. 0. 0,0 0.017.2 1G9.6 40 1?.1 169.2 40. 24, 0. 21,5 171,5 s:: 1;:: 2::18.9 171.7 4S 18,9 171. S 4s 11, 0. i?3,8 174,4 4: ; 220, 15,20.2 174.2 40 20.4 173.9 45. 21, s. 0,0 0.0–0. 0.21,2 177.2 25 21.4 176.6 30. 36. s. 0,0 0,8 0, -0, 0,ALL F~~~?;STSevG FORE Cf+ST pos IT ERRORURNG 48-HR23, 195. 0.72;:RfIVG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR 20. 167, 0, @,6VG INTENs ITV MtiGtiITUDE ERROR 3. 18. 0, 0,6VG INTENSITY 816S 3, 1:, e. 0,NUMBER OF FORE GfISTS 4 0 6D1ST6NCE TROVE1.ED BY’ TROPICAL CYCLONE 1S 948, Ntl3S KTS7~i2HR0e.0.0fIvERAGE SPEED OF TROPICOL CYCLONE IS 11, KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE OZPFIX POSITIC,NS FOR C’fCLONE NO, 8SATELLITEFIXESFIXPOSITIONACCRYDVOR6KCODECOMMENTSSITE11.0s11.2s11.2s11,4s13..3s10.9s11.5s12,1s11..9slj..6s12.4s12,7s13,0s1:4,6S13.3s14.9s14.9s14.9s1s.8s15.7s15.5s1s.8s1s.9s1s.9s16.9S17.3s17.2s17.6s18.ss17.8SlZ.OS1:1.4s18.4s19.2s19.7s19.6s19.8s19.9s20. 2s20.2s20. Ss20,1s20.8520.6s21.0s19,7s18.4s164 ,2E164.OE16S.4E165.5E164.SE163.7E165,1E166.OE166.6E1S6.4E16G.7E167.OE167.2E166.4E167.3E167.8E168.6E167.8E168.9E168.3E168.6E168.8E168.9E168.4E169,0E167.9E169.4E169.6E169.7E170.lE171 .7E171 .2E172.OE172.3E172.7E173.3E173.3E173.3E173.4E173.8E174.6E174.8E175.OE175.6E177.OE179.2u177.51dPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4TO.@/0.0Tl,O/1.L3Tl,5/1.5T2.0/2.O/D2.0/24HRSTl,S/1,5 /SO,O/24HRST2.5/2.5-/D0.5/24HRsT3.0/3,0T3.0/3.0T3.0/3.0-/DOT3.0/3.0T1.5/2.5T2.5/3.0/D1.5/.24HRS.S/24HRS/W1.5/26HRS/W@.5/24HRSINIT OBSULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT 0B5 ULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT OBS ULRC 12,6SULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXUL(lC 13.4S 166.6EUL9C 14.8S 167.9EUL6C 15.0S 168.3EULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXUL9C 17.4S 168.4EULCC FIXINIT OBS ULCC FIxUL6)C 18.9S i70.3EULCC FIXULQC 18.6S 171.6EULCC FIXULRC 18.8S 171.5EUL9C 19.4S 167.7EINIT OBSULCC FIXULCC 21.1S 174.9EEXP LLCC166.4EPGT!JPGTWPGTUPGTLlPGTWPGTIJPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWPGTIJPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTwKGWCPGTIJKGUCPGTLIPGTwKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGLIcPGTWKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTwPGTwKGwCPGTwKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCKGUCKG(JCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (x) INDICfITE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES242

ITROPICQL CVCLONE 09PBEST TR12CK DR’T(41BEST TRACK UeRNING 24 HOUR FORECAST 48 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSERRORSERRORSPOSITW;ND DS.T W;:D POSIT W&ND _t&T WIND POSIT LHNP DST w;ND11,4 184,1-0. 0,0 0,00. 0.0 @,@-0.12.0 184,7–0. 0. 0.0 0,00, 0.9 0.0 -0.19,2 185,03t : 53, 0, 14.4 183.8 4Z: 1A: 0. 16,8 1S4.0 5: 183, 1::14.7 18s.340 34, 0. 16.7 184.5 45. 108. -5, 19.1 186.8 5s +0 15,16.2 1$!S,840 13. -s. 1?.9 186,4 4@. 31. -~: I;:j 18~:$ 35, 9s, 5,17,2 126,350 21 0. 18,5 187,0 45. 41,e. -8. 0.18.1 1s6.940 103. +: l;:; 189,0 3;: 156. 0. 0,0 0.0-0, 0,19,0 187.53s 98.0,0–0. :. 0.0 !3.0 :; -0. 0,20,3 188.80. -0. 0. 0,0 0,0 e. -e. . 0,0 c3.0 e. -0. 0,Pos0.00.00.00.00,00.00,00,00.072 HOUR FORECI?STERRoRSIT W&,iD -~ST W;ND0,0e.e 0.0.9 0,-e: 0.-0, 0.0,0 0, -0,0.0.0 t?. -0. e.0.0 0, -0,0.0.2! 0, -e, 0.9.0 :, -0. e.0,0 -e. 0,9LL FORECASTSTVPH00N~4~~~LE4flfi~ 35 KTsWRNG 2;;:R ;;;HR 72;:R I.JRNG7::HRAVG FORECAST POSIT ERROR54. 0.0, 0,F#G RIGHT QNGLE ERROR3? 62. 57, 0. 0, 0,0. 0.FIVG INTENSITY NfiGNITuDE ERROR 3. 10, 0.0. 0, 0. 0.AVG INTENSITY B19S -:: -; 1:, Q,0. 0, 9.0.NUMBER OF FORECASTS 60 00 .6 0DISTFINCE TROVELED BY TROPICfIL CYCLONE 1S 61?. NM&VERfIGE SPEED OF rROFICAL CVCLONE6, KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE L39PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 9SATELLITEFIXESTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONDvOR9K CODE COMMENTSSITE11,SS 177.OW11.2S 176.2W11.9s 17S.SW11.1s 174.9W12.2s 17s.2u14.1S 175.21J15.5s 174.6W15.8S 174.OLl16.5S I?4.2U16.8s 173.9W17.0S 174.OW16.0S 175.OLl17.6S 173.41J18.0S 172.7U18.3S 172.5LJ19.5s 174.lW19.5S 172.OW19.5s 171.SW19.9S 172.lW22,3S 168.2UPCN 6 T1.5/l.5 INIT OBS ULAC 1.5s t75.71JPCN 6PCN .6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4T2.S/2.ST3.SZ3.S/Di.0/24HRS/D1.0/24HRSULAC li.6S 174ULAC i2.9S 17ST2.S/2.5 /W1.0/24HRS EXP LLCC ULfIC 16.0S 172.BWT3.0/3.0T1.S/2,5/D#.5/21HRS/Lll.5/24HRSEXPEXPLLCCLLCC2WiLJPHNLKGWCPHNLK(NJCKGUCKGWCKGIJCKGIJC:W&PHNLPHNLKGwCPHNLKGIJCKGWCKG!JCPHNLKGWCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPI?ESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TR!-ICK PURPOSES.~BEST TRFICK WFIRNINGPOSITLU:D PosITuple.9 65.70,0 e.e11.4 64.4 2s e.e e.o 0,i2, e 62.9 30 ~:~ e.e 0,12.7 61,2 35 e.e e.13.8 59,7 4s 13. s S9. S 40,15,0 S8.3 55 14.9 57.8 sO16,2 56., 9 60 16.5 S7.4 6e17,4 55,7 6S 17. B ~~,~ 65,18.3 54,9 55 19,26S19,2 5+,2 50 19.0 54:2 Sa19,8 53,7 se 2e.0 ~s:; 4s20.7 S3.4 55 20.755.21.7 53.7 SS 21.2 S2,6 Ss22,2 54,5 55 21.7 S4,6 4e.22.4 SS,7 55 22.7 57,1 4s21.8 56.2 5s 22. i 56,3 S521,3 SS,3 40 22.0 55,0 50.21,3 S4, S 3S 21,7 54,7 45.21.6 S3,9 3S 21.4 S3.4 4s22,0 53.4 4e 22.1 S1.7 4e,23,1 S2.9 40 22.1 53.2 4e.24,4 S2, B 35 23.5 52.4 35.2S,9 52.9 :: :$:: S4. O 35.27.4 53.3S3,0 30,24 HOUR FORECAST 4B HOUR FORECASTERRORSERRORSERRORSDST W;ND POSIT U;~D DST LUND POSITU:m DST U&4D-0. 0.0 0,9-0,0.0 9.0 -0.-0. :, 0,0 0,0 ‘a. -e, cl. 0,0 0.0 0. -0, 0,-0.0.0 0.0 0. -0, 0, 0.0 0.0 0, -0, 0.-0.0,0 0,0-0.%.’a 0, -0.:$; -:: 16.3 5s,3 7:: 92. 1:; 2::? 5?,8 80. 161, 2::-s. 17.7 54,2 75. B8 10, 21.9 53.7 8s. 164, 35.34, 0, 19.6 55,0 80. 78. i?5. 22 4 S6..2 80 210, 39.24, 0, 20.6 ~.:; 75. 93, 2;: ;:, : S2,3 45. 114, -10.71. 10, 22.2 S5, 182,50.4 40. 244. -15.12, 0, 20,7 52,7 40. 39, -15. 22.4 S0,9 30 2F3c3. -25,16, -5, 21.5 52,3 35. -20. 2;.: s::: 2:: 2::: -30,17, 0, 22,6 S2,0 35. Iz:: -29. 0,68, 0, 23, @ S1,5 50. 23S, -5. 24.8 S;:; 42: 32S, S,31. -15. 22.9 S8,3 30. 134, -25. 0.0-0. 0.;:: -10, 24,3 61, S ~& ~~;: -10,0.0 0,0, 22,9 S6,120. 2:. ! s5, i s:: 2;: : 10.45. 10. 22,0 SS,’a S@, 66. 15, 24,1 57.1 35. 238. -s26, ;:: g::: S1 54, ~ s 35, 40. ~::: 0. 24.3 54, S 30. 93. -s30.~:: :~:: ::,: 2s, 33s, -l@.95. e, 22. s 49:7 30. 29s 2:: 3::: -19.62. 0. 22.3 51, B 3S, 224, @. 0,0 0 :.3 e.58, 0, 24.7 s:,: 3!3: 177. @. 0,0 0,0 0. -0, 0.94.0.0-0, 0, 0.0 0,8 0, -0. 0.16. -:: 0.0 0:0 0, -0. 0, 0,0 0,0 0. -0. f!,72 HOUR FORECFISTERRORSPOSIT (J;ND DST lJ&4De.o 0,00,0 0.0 0. -e. 0.0.0 0.0 0. -e. e.0.0 o.e e. -e. e.0.0 0.e g. -e. e.e.0 e.e-e. e.e.e e.e e: -e. e.o,e e.e g, -e, e.e.o o.e-0,e.e e.e e: -e. ::e,e 0,0 e. -0. cl,e.e e.e e. -e e.@.@ 0,0 0. -e. e.e.e e.e e, -e. 0,e.o e.e e, -’d e.e.e e.o 0. ~:. e.e.e e.e e.e.e.e e.e e. -e : e.0.0 e.e e. -e e.e.e e,e .3. -e. ::e.e e,e g. -e.o.e @e-e. :.e.o e.e e: -e .e.0 o.e e. -e. e:CIVG FORECfiST POSIT ERRORfiVG RIGHT fiNGLE ERROR!WG INTENSITY MfiGNITUDE ERROR9vG INTENSITY B167SNUNBER OF ForecastsRLLWRNG42,27.4.-0.zeFORECFISTS;~-4uR4&HRBS lie:12. 17.;:.1:’DISTeNCE TRAVELED BY TROPICFIL CYCLONE 1S 1692. NMAVERfiGE SPEED OF TROPICCIL CYCLONE 1S 6, KNOTSTYPHOONS WHILE OVERWR]G 2-4:HR 4f3:HRe: 0. 0,e. e. e.0, ;. 9.ee35 KTS7::HR0,0,e.e243

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10SFIX POSITIONS FOR CY,2LC!NE NO, 10SATELLITEFIXESFIxP051TIQNDVORAK CODE COMMEN7SSITEPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4.PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 3PCN 6PCN 4T1.0/1,0T2,0z2.13/D1.CV2SHRSINIT09SUL9C 13.1S 61,0ET3.S/3,5 /D1.5/i24HRsT3.5/3.5 INIT OBSULRC 1S.4S 1358.4ET3,S/3SIJLQC 15,1S 058.3ET3.5/3.5 /SEJ.0/24HRS E’T’E FIXEYE FIxT4.0/4.OT2.5/3.!iT3.5/3.5T3.0/3.0T3.S/3.5T3.5/3.5T3.@/3.OT3,0/3.0T3.5/3.sT4,S/4.5T3.@/3.@T4.S/4.ST2.S/3.5T2.S/3.5T2,0/2.ST2,S/2.5T2.O/2.5T@.S/l.S/DO.S/24HRS/111.0/24HRSJD@.5/24HRS/DC).5/24HRS/DO.S/24HRS/DO.S/24HRS/S@.0/24HRS/DO.5/24HRS/SO.0/24HRS/Di.5/24HRS/SO.0z24HRS/Di.0/2sHRS/w2.0/25HRS/w2.t3/2SHRS/WO.5/24HRS/DC!.5/24HRS/WO.S/12HRS/W2.0/24HRSEXP LLCC UL6C 18.9S 055.2EULRC 19.5S 053,3EUL6C 19.0S 053.9ELILAC 20.05 0S3.OEULAC 20.2S 053,0EUL6C 21.0S 052.7EULAC 20.9S 53.9EULFIC 21.6S @53.7EExP LLCCEXP LLCC ULAC 23.2S @S4,6EEXP LLCC ULAC 22.4S 0S4.SEEXP LLCCExP LLCCEXP LLCC UL6C 23.2S 054.3EULAC 22.2S 0S4,SEULAC 23.8S 0S4.7EULfiC 25.0S FJS2.8EULRC 24.7S 0S2.2EULAC 24.SS 051.8EUL6C 25.SS S2.8ET2.5/2.5 /DO.S/24HRS UL9C 26.5S 053.7EKGLICKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGLICKGIJCKGLJCKGWCKGIJCKGIJCKG(JCKG(JCFJDGKGLICKGwCKGIJCKGLJCFJDGKGwCKGLJCKGIJCKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGLICKGWCKGWCFJDGKGIJCKGWCKGLICKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGIJCKGWCSYNOPTICFIXESTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONINTENSITY NEARESTESTIMATE DATS (NM) COMMENTS18060021.4S S5 2E0s0 02s 6198@ 61984NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDIC6TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TR9CK PURPOSES.mBEST TRGCK LJFIRNING 72 HOUR FORECASTERRORSPOSITWIND POSITW:NDPOSIT LUND _tI:T u;ND15,9 161 25 0.0 0,00,0 0,’a1s.6 161 25 o.e e.e e.0,0 0,0 0. -0, 0,1S.6 162 25 e.o o.e 0,0,0 0.0 & -0, 0,1S.5 163 25 e.e 0.e e.0,0 0.0 -0, 0,1s,5 163 30 e.e 0,9 e.0,0 0.0 cl: -’0 0,15,4 16s 30 e.e 0.e e.‘JO 9,0 -0. :,15.4 166 40 16.3 166,2 45.0,0 0.0 0. -e15.5 lG? 50 1S.5 167.6 Ss0,’a 0.0 :, -0, 0:15,9 169 60 15.8 169,2 55.0,0 0.9 -8, 0,16.3 171 75 16.3 171,3 65,0.0 0,0 :: -8, 0,16 9 174 90 16.9 174.6 85,0.0 0,0 -0, e,18,1 178 iee is. e 177,9 90.0,0 0.0 c+: -0. a,.?9.0 183 9e 20. e 182,5 7s0.0 0.0 0. -0, 0,.s1.9 1Z9 75 i?l.8 189.0 9e.0.0 0.0 0, -0. 0,24,1 1Y5 60 23.7 19S,0 fie0.0 0.0 0. -’a, 0,z? .4 261e 4S 27,2 202,5 400,0 0,0 cl. -0, 0.33,6 ~10 30 33.7 211.5 3e.0.0 0,0 0. -0, 0,244

~RN~LL FOREC6STS24-HR &lR 72;:RRVG FOR ECOST POSIT ERROR 31. 239,AVG RIGHT CIF+GLE ERROR 22. 58. 145, Q.nVG 1NTENSIT% MfIGNITUDE ERROR 20. 0.AVG INTENSITY B16S -z : –:: -1;. 0,NuMBER OF FORECf+STS 11 0DISTANCE TRAVELED BY TROP1C9L CYCLONE ISRVERfiGE SPEED OF TROPICf+L CYCLONE IS3030. NM16. KNOTS35 KTS7e–HRe.0.e.‘a.oTROPICAL CYCLONE 11PFIX POSITIONS FOR CVCLONE NO. 11S9TELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(ZJFIxPOSITIONACCRVDvoRfIK CODE COMMENTSSITEix :56789x 10* 1112x 13x 14* 15161718$:x $2232425x $:% 28293@31::34:E* ::394041424344454647482:51x :5545556x 57S859::52. 8E61 .3E61 .3E63.4E62,5E62.4EG2.2E62.6E62.OE::. :~63:3E61.8E62.lE62.5E63.8E63.9E6S.OE65. 4E64, 7E65. SE67. 8E6s 6E66. 2E66.4E66.9E66,7E67.6E68.OE68.lE68. 5E67. 3E68. 6E69. OE69. 7E69.lE69.8E7@.OE70,6E,70,3E.71 SE.70.9E.71 ,OE.72.8E.72.7E.74.3EL74.6EL75>4E176.3E.76.lE.78.OE.78.OE.78.8w.78.6W,77,0wL72!91J(71,t3w(65.9L!159.31J154.lWlS1.6WPcN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PC!+ 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 4PCN 2PCN 2PCN 4PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 6p:: ~PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6T1,OZ1,OT2.0z2.ET1.S/l.ST2.0/2.0T2.0/2.0T2.5/2.5T3.0z3.OT3,5/3.5T3,5/3,ST3.S/3.5T3.5/3.5T4.0/4.O-/DlT4.S/4.5T3,5/3.5/Di.L3/17HR5/SO.0/24HRS/D1.0/24HRSZDI.0Z24!4RS/D1.0/24HRS/Dl,5/25HRS/D1.O/26HRS/SO.’d/24HRS.O/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/SO,@/22HRSINIT 08SUL9C 14.6S 161.3EULF.C 15.3S 164.lEULCCINITFIXOBSUL9C 16.3S 163.lEULRC 1S.0S 164.6EULRC 15.6S 165.7EULAC 13.5S 167.8EULCC 15.2S 167.5EULCCINITFIXOBSULRC 1S.7S 167.3EULCC FIXULCC FIXUL9C 17.0S 169.4EULCC FIXULCCEYET5.S/5.5 /D2.0/24HRS EYE FIXT5.0/5,t3-/Dl.0/27HRSFIXFIXT5.5/S.S /D1.0/24HRS EVE FIXT4.Q/5.@T3.5/S.0T2.0/3.0/w1.5z24HRsAJ2,0z22HRS/W2.0/22HRSULfiC 21.2S 172.6WUL(4C 22.1S 170.4WEXPEXPLLCCLLCCKGUCKGLICKGWCPGTIJPGTLIPGTwKGIJCPGTIJPGTwKGWCPGTIJKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTLJKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGIJCPGTUKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTIJPGTwKGWCPGTLJKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGLICKGIJCPGTWPGTLIPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCKGIJCKGWCPGTUPGTWPGTWKGIJCKGIJCPGTWKGLICKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGLJCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICfITE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BESTTRACKPURPOSESITROPICAL CYCLONE leSBEST TRACK DtiTAIMO/D fi/HR0112067.01i218ZOl1306Zoi1318z011406Z@114i8Zei i2.06zOilsiaz01i606Z011618Zeii706ze117i8zBEST TR~CK lJfiRNING 24 HOUR FORECfiST 48 HOUR FORECAST72 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSERRORSERRORSERRORSLHND DST U;ND POSIT tJ~t,+D DST IJ;ND POSIT IJ;NI, DST U;ND PoSIT w;~D _t):T IJ;:DPos-9. 0.0 O.’a-0. 00 0.0-0, e.o e.e10.80. -0, $3. 0,0 0.0 0. -0. 0. 0 9 0.0 0 -Q. :: 0.0 0.0 e. -e. 0.11,7t?. -0. :. 0.0 0.0 0. -0. 0. 0.0 0.0 0 -0,9.9 e.e :, -e. e,12,60, -’a 0.0 0,0 0. -@, 0, 0.0 0.0 0 -0. e. Cl.@ 0.0-e. e.13,50. -0. e: 0,0 0,0 0, -e 9, 0.0 0.0 0 -0. e. e.e 0.0 e: -e.14,00. -o. 0. 13. e 0.0 0, 0.0 0.0 0 -0. e. 0.0 0.0 e. 4: ::14,6+3. e. 0,0 0:: ~;: ~;~:0,9e.e 0.6 e. e.14,93;: 57, e. 17,1 & 1?. : 79.6 7:: 1;:: 4:: 0.0 0,0 e. -e. e.15. s::; 58, e. 17. s 81. S 4S. 1SS. 0.0 0.0 -o. :. 0.0 a.e e. -e. e.16,248. 0. 1~:~ 76.1 3:; 153. s. 0.0 0.0 g. -e0.0 0,0 e. -e. e.~~::30. 38. e.0.0-e. e. e e 0.0 -0, e: 0,0 0.0 e. -e. e.0. -0. 0. 0.0 0.0 e. -0. e. 0.0 0.0 e -o. e. 0.0 e,e e. -e. e.19,0F)LL F~f?~;~STSuRNG::EHRfiVG FORECfIST POSIT ERRORso 13BWC RIGHT QNGLE ERROR 4; 33. q:FIVG INTENSITV WFIGNITUDE ERROR 13.9VG INTENSITY 81AS :: 1;. 4; :NUMBER OF FOREC9STS3S KTS7::HRo.0.0.0245

DISTeNCE TRRVELED By TROPIC&L CVCLONC IS 874, rimRVER$)GE SPEED OF TROPICOL CYCLONE 1S 7, KNOTSTROPICQL CYCLONE 12SFIX POSITIONS FOR C’fCLONE NO, 12SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)FIXPOSITION6CCRVDVORAKCODEcOMMENTSSITE*12326%:x 10x 111213141s::18i:212223242526i?72a29140S311416001416301418001421001500001503~01S05101506@0151@331S11561s120015166391518B01600361604S01606@01608541610201s13161617311623t351701561704301711501712S4171710180S5119053114,13,14.:::14.13.14.13.16.16.1s.15.1s.1s.15.16.16.16.16.16.17.18,18.18.18.% :20,83, 6E85. @E85 BE85.4E85. 2E86. 2E86. 2E87. OE85. 5E86.2E86. &!E85.sE85. 2E84.7E84. OE83.4E83. OE82. 7E82. 6E81 .7E81.OE80. 3E80.lE79.IE77.5E77.6E77.3E7S.9E68.8EPCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN SPCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4::.:;; .: zsO.0/2sHRs. .T2.0/2.OT2.5/2.5T2.S/2.ST2.5/2.5T2.0/2.ST1.5/2.0T2.S2.ST3.0/3.0TO.5/l.STO.S/O,S/D1.0/24HRS/D1.0/20HRSlWO.5/24HRS/W@.5/27HRS/DO.5/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/W2.S/24HRS/S@.0/24HRSINIT OBSULRC 13.2s 085.7EULCC FIXINIT OBS ULCC FIXULRC 13.8S 086.OEULCC 14.2S 08S.9EULQC 14.8S 085.7EULCCINITFIX0B5UL9C 16.2s 085.0EUL9C 17.6S 086.8EEXP LLCCEXP LLCCULRC 17.5S 082.3EEXPEXPEXPEXPLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCKGuCPGTwKGbJcPGTWPGTwPGTtJPGTbJKGUCPGTWKGUCKGUCPGTLIKGIJCPGTwKGIJCKGLJCPGTLJFJDGKGWCKGIJCKGuCKGIJCKGWCKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGUCKGMCKGblCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRFICK PURPOSES.~MO/ Dfi/HR01140ez@11412Z01 lseoz011512z01160@Z011612Z0117@ez011?1.22oiiaoez011812z01190fiZ011912Z0120002012012z01210b3zBEST TR6cK LW?NING 24 HOIJR FORECFIST 4B HOUR FORECASTERRORS ERRORS ERRORSPOSITWIND 3S1T IJ;:D DST lJ&iD POSIT WND DST W&iD POSIT l.l&,+D DST !J~:D16.4 1S0,9 as 0.5( 0.0-’a 0,0 O,@0.0 0,0 -0.16. s 1s1.9 25 e,e 0.0 9. ~:, 0, 0.0 0.0 0. -0, ‘2: 0.0 0.0 0. -0. :,16.6 152.9 25 0,9 0.0 0.0. 0.0 0.0 :: -0. 0, O.@ 0.0 0. -0,16.3 1S4.5 30 e,9 0,0-0: 0. 0.0 0,9-0. 0, 0.9 0.0 0. -0. 0:16.1 156,1 3s 16,1 1s5.7 3Z : 23, 0. 16.4 15S.6 ;:: ~;& -1S, 16,8 161.8 6S, 3S9. -15,16.0 15a.7 S0 16,1 158,3 50. 24, 8. 16.4 162,6-5, 17. B 167, @ BO. 267. -10,1s.8 i61.5 65 15,9 161 ,S 6S 6. 8. 16.3 167,4 90. 51. 10, 17,6 173. S 105. 114.1S.6 164,6 75 15,6 164, S 7s 6, 0. 16,0 171,1 ies.1S. 17.4 177.7 10@. 143. 1;:15,6 167,9 :: ~::g 167.9 80. 0. 0. 16. s 174,9 les. 2:: @, 18.8 1S2,9 SO, 12i, 20.1s,9 1?1.2171.1 90. 6. 0. 17. S 178,5 10(3. 9B. 15. ee.7 1a6.7 75. 143. 35,16, a 1?5.3 10S 16,9 175.1 100. 13. -5. 2s3,1 1s3,6 se. ee S:: e;:~ la;:g 5$: 20a, 20,ia.1 180. I 85 ia.3 179.9 90. 17. 5. 22.3 ia9,7 65. 1F!3.-0, 0,19.5 ia4.9 60 19,5 18s.0 80. 6. .20, a::: 19::: s:: 2:;. 20, 0.0 0.0 0. -0. 0.20.3 1S9.2 40 20,8 ia9.3 60, 31. 20,0, O.e 0.0 0, -0. 0,20.9 19?,3 30 22,9 19i ,0 S5 9a. 25. 0.0. e,o 0. -’a: 0, 0,9 0.0 0. -0. ‘a,CiLL FOl~&TSWRNC;;LtHR 72;HRRVG *ORECOST pOslT ERROR21. 106.(AVG RIGHT eNGLE ERROR 17, 43. 58. 0.flVG INTENSITY PIFIGNITUDE ERROR 7. 14. 1:.E+.aVG INTENSITY BIcIS9.0.NUMBER OF F0REc6isTs 1?”97’ ‘aTYPHOONS WHILE OVER 35 KTSL4R~ti 2::HR 4::HR 7::HR0,0. e.0.0,0. 0. 0.0.0. 0.e.00 e oDISTRNCE TRIIVELED BY TROPICAL CVCLONE IS 2414, Ntlc4VERI+GE SPEED OF TROPICOL CYCLoNE IS 14. KNOTaTROPICAL C’fCLONE 13PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 13SATELLITEFIXESFIX TIME FIxNO. (z) POSITION fiCCR’f DVORaK CODE COMMENTSSITE*1300473 1318003456789 140000140026140309140604314c1713140900141125141600:: 14180012 14182413 14195314 14210015 Iseeee16 1500e617 ise3e016.SS16.2S16.5S16.6s16.6s16.SSlG.SS16.SS16.9s17.e517.2S16.8S17.5s17.1s16.4S16.2S16.SSlSO.OE152.lE151.9E1S1 ,SE1S1 .7E151.eE151 .7E151 .2E152.8E152.6E152,9ElS1.5E156.6E153.lE152.4E1S2.5E152.8EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPcfi 6~i,efi.eri,eti.eTi,e/i.eT2.S/2.ST1.5/l.ST1.0/l.0/D1.5/24HRS/50.0/24HRSINIT OBSINIT OBS ULCC FIXINIT OBSULCCINITFIXOBST1.0/1,0 /SO.0/24HRST1.S/2.S /111.0/24HRS ULfIC 16.6S 1S3.6EKGUCPGTUPGTldKGUCPGTL4PGTblKGUCPGTUKGUCPGTWPGTIJKGUCKGUCPGTIJPGTwKGUCPGTU246

16.5S lS3.OE16.5S 1S4.lE16.1s 1S4.lE16.2S 154.OE16.@S 1S4.8E16.3S 15S.4E15.8S 1SS,3E1S.6S lSS.lE1s.9s LS6.IE16.3S 1S5.7E16.2S 156.2E16.1S 157.OE16.0S 158.2E16.2S 1S7.7E16.1s 157.OE16.1S 158,1E15.8S 158.9E16.0S 160.lE15.7s 16i.13E1S.7S 161,4E1S.8S 161.SE15.8S 162..2E1S.7S 163,0E15,4S 163.9E1S.5S 164.5E15,4S 16S.5E15.ss 166.lE1S.6S 166.4E1S.4S 166.9E15.7S 167.5E15.6S 167.9E15.7s 168!SE1S.8S 169.4E1S.SS 170.lEPCN ~PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 4PCN ?PCN 4PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2T1.S/l.5T2,0/2,0T3,0/3.0T2.S/2.ST3.5/3,sT3.0/3,0T4,0/4,0T4.0/4.0T5.0/S.0T4,5/4.5T4.s/4.sT4.S/4.5/SO.O/24HRSfDl,b3/24HRS/Dl,5/24HRSzD1.5/24HRS/D1.0/22HRS/Dl,O/24HRS/D1.5/27HRS/D1.S/24HRS/D1.5/26HRs/DO,S/24HRS/D0.5.

%4@4142434445464748495051x ::x 54555657S859x E:6263646516.5slG.9S16.7s16.8s16.7s17’.4s17’.1s1;’,0s16.9s17.2s1;’.0s17.5s17’.2s17’,9s1s.3s18.6S19,4s19,7520.2s20. 5s20,0s20.9s20. 5s23. 0S21.0s21 .6S21 .7s21 .9s161. OE161.8E161.4E162.4E162.6E163.8E163.5E164.2E164.9E165. OE165.4E16G. lE166.3E167.3E168.4E170. OEli’2.7E170.2E171 .3E172.3E171.6E173.2E172.2E176. OE174.3E175.2E176. OE176. lEPCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCIA 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6Pcri 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PcN 4T4.5/5.0T3.5/4.ST3.S/4,5T2.5/3.5+/wE!,O/22HRS/W@.S..z24HRS/U&’,0/24i4RS/w1.5.,z4HRST2.S/3.5 /W1 .O.,24HRS?1,S/2,5 /W2,0.,24HRS---PGTI.IKGIJCPGTWULfiC 17.8S 163.8Eb:::PGTwKGuCEXF LLCCPGTWEXF LLCCPCTIJULRC 13.5S 16S.8E KGWEPGTWKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCKGLICKGWCPGTwPGTWEXPLLCCEXF LLCCTO.0/0.5 /lJ2,S.

110/DR/HR01241ZZOlzse@zei.?!si2z912600291261229127002elt!7iez012800291 Z812Ze129@ez0129122ei3eeezetaetczBEST TR!ACK LNIRNING 48 HOUR FORECOSTERRORSW;:DPOSIT W;NE D5T WIND0 e.e 0.POSIT15.0 203.15.9 2a2.16,8 201.17.7 20e,19.4 198,20,7 196,.2Z. i 194,.?3.8 191,25.8 189.2s.5 i87.30.9 187.34.2 ~92.36.2 199.7e.e.0.e.e.s::60,65,6s3e.4e.0 0,0 0, -e. 0.‘a e.e 0, -0, 0.0 0,0 e. -0, 0,0 9.0 e. -0. 0.0 e.e 0. -0. 0.0 0.00 189. e ?:” 2;:: 2::s 19::: 3r3: 493, -5,0 -0, 0,0 o.e 0. -e. g,e e.e g: -0.e e.e -E, 4+:72 HOUR FOREC#ISTERRORSPOSIT WJ:D -~ST W;NDo.e 0,00.e e,e 0. -0: e.e.o e.e 0. -e. e.e.e e,e 0. -0. e.e.e e,e e, -e. e.0.0 e,e 0, -0. e.e.e 0.0 e. -e. 0.O,e e.e 0. -e. e.e.e e.e 0, -0, e.e.e 0,0 e. -0, 0.e.e e.e g. -0,0.c3,L3 e.e -0, e.0.0 e,e 0: -e, e.WC FORE CI?ST POSIT ERRORRVG RIGHT .4NGLE ERRORWC INTENSITY MAGNITUDE ERROR.4VG INTENs ITv B113SNUU8ER OF FoRECRSTSFILL FORECASTSWRNG ;;;HR ~~B-:R 72; HR42.23. 71, 3::. ‘e:8.-:: -:. 8: e.zoTYPH00N~4~~~LE4~~~~ 3S KTS[Jl??c72-HR1S7, 359. 0,23. 71. 305. e.9, 13. e.-:, -:: 8, 0,4 z 0DISTflNCE TRAVELED BV TROPICFIL CVCLONE IS 2035. NM6VERAGE SPEED OF TROPICfIL CYCLONE IS14, KNOTSHURRICANEFIX POSITIONS FOR16PCVCLONE NO, 16SATELLITEFIXESFIXPOSITIONfICCR’fDVORfIK CODE COMMENTSSITE14.2S iS7,11J1s.5s 1S6.4W17.2s 159.2W18,1s 160.4W19.0S 162.2W2S3.3S 162.OW2S$.1S 16E!.7U20.ss 163.S!J23.4S 166.7W24.6S 169.lW24.3S 168.9(J25.1s 169.7W2s.2s 170.51J26.5S 171.5!J27.1s 171,6W28.1S 171?.Iu28.4S 173.OW29.0S 172.5w29,5S i72.41J30.6S 173.7W32,CN3 170.5U33.8S 168.71J3S.SS 164.9U35.7S 163.OW35.0S i68.OU37.0S 1S4.5UPCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 1PCN 2PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6T1.0/1,0T2.0/2.0T2.5/2.5T2.S/2n5T2.@/2,ST3,S/3.ST3.S/3.5T4.Sf4.ST3.0/4,eT3.S/4.0T3.0/4.OT1.5/2.S/D1.0/24HRS~DO.5124HRS/D@.S/24HRS/Ya.5/24HRSlD1.5/24MF4S/D1.S/24HRS/D2.0/47HRSl!J6.5/2SHRS/W1.9/24HRS/S6.0/24HRSfW1.!E./24HRSINIT 06S LILACUL6C 14.5S 1S7ULAC 17.9S 160UL6C’18.2S 161ULAC 20.5S 162EYEEYEEVEEYEEYEEYEFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXFIX2.5S 156,9WOw2W5WSwEXP LLCCUL6C 34,0S 167.6WUL9C 35,0S 163.8WULAC 35,4S 162.lWKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCPHNLKGWCPHNLKGWCPHNLKGWCKGWCKGWCKGUCKGWCKGIJCNPOCPHNLKGLJCKGWCKGWCKGUCKGWCKG(JCNPOCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDIC6TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVEAND NOT USED FOR BEST TR@CK PURPOSES.-ll~l~~Reizsizzei3eeezet3et2zei3ieezei3ii2zBEST TR6CK WARNINGPOSIT UIND POSIT LWND18.1 i2e.6 2s e.e e.e18,3 119.1 35 e.e e.e18,2 118.0 4S 18.3 llS. i 3::ls, s 117,1 SS 18.4 116.8 ~~:2e,3 ij7. e 4s 26.0 iis. sZ2.3 116,9 3s 22.2 116.7 se.48 HOUR FORE CfiSTERRORSPOSIT U::r’ DST WINDe.e e.e -e. ;.e,o 0.0 e. -e.e.e 0,0 c1 -0. e:0.e e.e e. -e. 0,e,e e.e e. -e. ~.e.e 0,0 0. -0.72 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSPOSIT klj~D D5T W~NDe.o e.ee.e e.e e, -e. e:9.0 e.e ~. -e. e.0,0 e.e -e. e.e.e e.e e: -e. e,0,0 e.a e. -o. e.fiLL FORECASTSIJR;; ;~&~R 48;HR 72-HReVO FORECMST POSIT ERROR0,RVC RIGH, +?NGLE ERROR1:: 1:$. e,flvG xNTENSITV I’VIGNITUDE ERROR:: 0.WC INTENSITV 81AS 1: 1:: e.NUHBER OF FORECASTS 4 e“ eDISTaNCE TRAVELED 8V TROPICfiL CYCLONE IS 432. NMAvERflGE SPEEO OF TROPICAL CVCLONE IS 7. KNOTSTVPHOONS WHILE OVERLIRt+: 2~-4HR 43THR0, 0, e.0, ‘a. e.e, 0, e.‘a e e3S KTS7::HRe.0.e.e249

TROPICAL CYCLONE 17SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 17Sf?TELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIIIE(z)FIxPOSITION ACCRY DVORAK CODE COMMENTS SITE:34567:1011121314151617290208290737291021291307’29202129230130014830030@3009063009s93014293020093022393i83b931093831120031140S18.2S 120.@E18.7S 119,8E18.7S 119,5E18.6S 118.9E17.7S 118,5E18.0S 118.2E18,4S 117,8E20.8S 116,9E18.4S l17,0E18.4S i17.lE18.9S i17.4Elg.6S 117.3E20.1S ii7.iE21.1S ii7.iE2?.0s ii6.7E2.2.2S ilG.8E22.8S ii7.iEPCN 5PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 1PCN 6PCN 1PCN 1PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN iPCN 3PCN 6PCN 4T1.5/i.5 INIT OBS ULAC 17,SS li8.iEULRC 18,4S ii7,SEUL6C 18.9S ii8,SEUL9C 18,0S i18.2ET3.5/3.5T4.0/4.0T3.s/3.s/D2.0/24HRSINIT OBSRGD EYERGD EYEINIT 08SEYE DIR ,6 NMKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCffiwcKGIJCKGWCPHIKKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGUCKGUCKGWCKGIJCPHIKKG(JCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDIC9T5 FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES.~BEST TReCK LwRNINGERRORSPOSITW$~D PosIT LUND DST WIND P11.6 156.7 -0. la, e.e13,5 1S6,0 35 A:: 15::: 35. 60. 0, 12.614,4 153.8 3s 13,9 1s4.2 40. 38. 5. 14.214,2 ISI. B 3S 14.1 1s2,9 4S. 13.13.5 150,1 35 14,2 150.4 49. 45. S, 15.213.4 147, s 3S 13,9 148,0 35.0, 14.813,6 145,8 3s 13,4 144.8 35. ::: 0. 13.613.3 144.7 3s 13, s 143,0 30. ieo. -;, 14.113. S 143,6 30 13,3 142.2 30. 8=. 0.01 +.7 143,5 25 14,7 143.6 2s. . 0: 0.010.15.224 HOUR FORECfiSTERRORS,3SIT IJIND D5T U;~De.e152.7 6:: 1@9. 25.1S1.6 4S. 97. 10.149.2 S0. 146. 15.147.7 50. 146. 1s144.2 30, 95. -si4@.9 3s, 158.138.9 S:, ?70 2::0.0 -0.0.0 0: -0. ‘a:4B HOUR FORECtiSTERRORSPOSIT > !Jj ND DST WJND0.0 0.04,s 1s.0.2 7s, 1;:: 4e:6,0 149. S S0. 2S8, 16.6,8 147. e :s?: :;.4. 1s.6.5 14j:~s.0.0-e: &0.0 0.0 :: -0,0,0 0.0 0. -0, 0.0,0 0,0 0. -0, 0.0.0 0.0 0, -0, e.:::e.ee.ee.ee.ee.ee,oe.ee.e72 HOUR FORECCiSTERRORSPos IT U;ND &T U;ND::: e. -0: e:e.o 0. --e. e,:.: 0. -o. e,~. -e, ~,0:0 -e ,e.e 0: -e, e:o.e 0. -0. e.0.0 0. -e. e.e.e e. -e. e./)LLFIVG FOREC6ST POSIT ERRORWRNG50.$IVG R GHT CIN6LC ERROR3:,fiVG I ATENSITY M6GN1TUDE ERRORWC INTENSITY BIAS z:NUMSER OF FOREChSTS 9FOREC(+STSTVP};~;UR ~s#R 7Z;HR tJRNGa,124. 142. 0: 0,14. 19. 0, 0.13. 1:, 0,0,7e@ONS WHILE OVER2~-HR 4~~HR‘a: e.0, 0.63, 0,eo3S KTS7:-HRe:e.e.eOISTONCE TRRVELE. D BY TROPICAL CYCLONEs 941. NMW’ERfiGE SPEED OF TROPICfiL CYCLONE IS9. KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE 18PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 18SaTELLITEFIXESFIX TIME FIxNO (z) POSITION I.)CCRY DVORAK CODE COMMENTS SITE*3*4*5UL6C 14.2S 155.SE:311800 15 3s i6i.8EPCN 5011800 15,3s i60.8EPCN 6012306 12.8S IS6.2EPCN 6 Ti.0/t.e020000 13.2s 160.2EPCN 6020300 12.7s is8.6EPCN 6 T3,0/3.0INIT OBS6 020714 12.3s iS6.OEPCN 6ULAC 13.4S IS6.2E7 020900 13.0s 156.9EPCN 48 021146 13.3s 155.8E PCN 6050752 12.9s 146.4E PCN 641 0512Wd 13.6S i44.9E PCN 6ULCC FIX021200 14.8s 1S5.8E PCN 6021749 13.8S 155.8E PCN 6021800 14.4s iS5.iEPCN 6ULAC 14.2S IS4.7E021954 13.9s 154.2E PCN 6UL9C 13.7S i55.OE030000 14,2S i54.SEPCN G030027 14.0s iS3.9EPCN 5 T2.5/2.5 /Di,Sz25HRSULRC 14.2S 154.4E0303@0 14.5s 154.6E PCN 6 T2.O/2.0 /Wi.0/24HRS030730 14.2s 151 .5E030834 13.7s 152.7EPCNn.hl.“,,4eQT2.S/2.5 INIT OFIS031126 13,8S 152.OE PCN 6 T2.5/2.5031200 14.ss 153.7E PCN 6031600 14,2s 150.7E031600 14,3s i50.8EPCN 6031736 13.9s i5@.8EPCN 6ULFIC 13,9S i50.iE031800 14.7s i53,iEPCN 6031800 13.9s i50,5EPCN 6ULCC FIX032100 14.ss 151.iEPCN 6c332ii4 13.ss i50.6EPCN 6ULAC 14.0S i5i.iES$4e000 13.BS ISO.2E PCN 6e4n807 13.0S i49.6EPCN 5 T2.5/2.5 /S@.n/24HRS~~L& &9S i5i.SE040300 13.0S 149.8E PCN 6 T2.5/2.5040600 12.8S i49.3E PCN 6040813 13.1s 147.7E PCN 6ULAC 12.0S 149.7E040900 13.4s i48,iE PCN 604i2e0 13.4s i47.6E n.. c; ;;N ~041247 13.7s i46.8E ----T2.O/2.S /w0,5/24HRSULAC 14.SS 148.EIE041724 14.4s 146.2E PCN 6ULRC 13.4S 147.5E0420S3 12,4S 145.2E PCN 6042100 14,0S i45,8E PCN 6ULCC FIX050128 13.8S 146.iE PCN 5 T3.0/3.0 /DC).5/25HRS850300 13.4s 145.lE PCN 6 T2.5/2.5+/SO.O/24HRSx910ii121314* is161718x 192021x :52425262728293031323334% :;37383940IWIT OBS ULfIC 13.2S 160.2EULGC 14.0S 153,2ElNIT OBS ULAC 13.4S 152.8EPCN 6 T2.0/2.0 INIT OBS ULCC FIXPHIKPHIKKGUCPHIKPHIKKGWCRODNKGUCPHIKKGWCPHIKKGIAICPHIKKGUCPHIKRODNKGLJCKGIJCPHIKPGTURPHKKG!JCPHIKPGTWRPNKKGIJCPGTUKGwCPGTLJ:2;:PGTWPGTIJKGUCKGUCKGIJCPGTUKGQC::;:PGTU250

4243444s46x ::49x :;x ;;55565758596061626364656613.0s13.4s13.2s1?.8S13.1slJ.3S14.8S14.1s14,7s15.1s14.6s15.2s14.8S14.8S14.9s15.2s14.8S15.4s14.5s14.C7S!J.8S15.0s14.7s1s.ss16. Is144.5E144.lE143.7E143.5E144.OE143.7Ei40.9E143.6E143.5E140.3E143.5E145.3E143.2E144.2E145.lE145.3E14S,8E145.8E149.lE148.8E149.2E152.6E149.8E156.OE152.7ETl,5/1.5Tl,5/1.5T1.0/l.0Ti.5/l.5T1.5/l.5TO.5/i.S/SO,O/24HRSlD@.5/24HRS/W1.0/24HRSINIT OBS ULCC FIXULCC FIXLILOC 13.5S 143.6ELILAC 13.0S 143.7EINITEXPOBSLLCCLILAC 14.2S 137.6EULRC 15.1S 145.7EULAC 1S.3S 146.OEULAC 15.3S 148.8EULflC 14.0S 149.5EULCC FIXIJJ~~ &3S lS1.7ENOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXES UNREPI?ESENTeTIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRfiCK PURPOSES.~BEST TRaCK LIORNINGERRORSPOSIT wIND POSIT U;ND DST U~;D PO1.2.3 70,1 30 0.0 e.o -0,0.013.4 68,9 3S i3.1 68.3 35, 39, 0, 13.814,4 67.4 30 13.9 S6:s 40. 60. 10. 1s.315,4 G5,9 30 15.9 35. 65. S, 18.314,9 63.9 25 lS. S 64.4 35. 46, 1:: 16.816, S 60 .,? 30 16. @ 6~:~ 3L3: 125. @.o16,6 y:: 35 6.0 -0, 0, 0.016,5 40 16.9 56.0 35, 42, -5, 17.9:6,7 i;3 1 50 17.0 S3,8 40. 44, -10, 18.717,9 SO. S ~~ ~~:~ S0.3 S0. 38, 9, 21.5i8,8 48.1 S0.3 ~;: 126. 5, 19.219.1 4s.8 ;: 19.9 46.1 51, 10, 0.019.1 44.1 0.0 0,0 0, -0. 0, .0.0SITO.@65.16?.861.562. S0,05::?49.848. S49.50,00.0HOUR FORECAST 48 HOUR FORECflSTERRORSERRORSU&iD DST IJIND POSIT WING DST WIND-0.sO . 107. Z:: 1~:~ 68:: 6;: 1::: 3::60. 68. ::. ;::: S9,6 7s. 1.?2, 40,45, 131.5::: s:: 3!;. 10.2:: 2~.3: -10: 0.00,0. 0.0 0.9 a, -0: 9,0. -0.11. -Ig: :;:g ~g:~ 3:: 1;:: 1::::: 97.2+5: 264. 1:,35, 299, 1S, 0.0 0.0-0.3;: 306. 15, 0.0 0.0 0, -0. ::-0. :, e,O 0,0 0, -’a.e, -0, 0,0 0,0 0, -0. 0:72 HOUR FOREChSTERRORSPOSIT W$ND &’T w;ND@,@ 0.00,0 0.0 e: -0: e:0,0 0.9 0. -0, :.0,9 0.0 e. -Gi.C+,’a e.e 0. -0. g:0.0 9.0 6. -e.,0,0 0.0 0. -0, ::0,0 a.e e, -0,0.9 o.e e. -0. e:O.e 0,9 0. -0. 0.0.0 @e :. -0, 0,0.0 O.e -0. 0,0.0 O,e 0: -0. 0.oLL FORECASTSWRNG ~~;HR Q74HR 72;HR!lVG FORECfiST POSIT ERROR 64,AVG RIGHT ANGLE ERROR 37. 67: 91. 0.6VG INTENSITY M(IGNITUDE ERR3R 6, 16. 20. ‘a.hVG INTENSITV BIAS i;, 2:.b.NUMBER OF FORE CC,5TS 1:‘aDISTF3NCE TRFIVELED BY TROPICHL CYCLONE IS 1612, NMl+VERflGE SPEED OF’ TROPICFIL CYCLCINE IS 11. KNOTSTVPH00N~4~; ;LE OVERuR~G4:-HR0,0: ‘a, 0:0. e’, ‘a,0, 0, 0,0 @ 035 KTS7:-HR0:0,0,0TROPICAL CYCLONE 19SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 19S9TELLITEFIXESFIX TIME FIXNO (z) POSITION fiCCRY DVORAK CODECOMMENTS13.2s13.6S12.8S12.5si2.9S13.0s13.4s14.8S14.8SlG.2S15.8S~5,5515.9s14,4s14,7!314.3slL.5S15.8Slb.5slC>.4S1(;.1s:? 7s2;’,@lsL#’,5slL.4S17.5s17’.4s18.4s1:{.4s17 Ss19.1s17.7s19.4s19,6S19.1s1s).4sPCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 3PCN 4PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4 ,PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6Pc!i 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5T1.5/l.5T2,0/2.0Tl,5/1.5T2,5/2.5T1.5/l.ST2.S/2.5T2,5~2.5T3,0/3.0T3.5/3.5T4.0f4.0/D@.S/12HRS/SO.0/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/S@.0/24HRS/SO.01e4HRS/Di.0/25HRs/Di.0/24HRS/Dl,O/24HRSINIT OBS ULACExPEXPEXPEXPEXPLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCC ULACEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCC13.7S 070.SE14.5S 062.lEEXP LLCCEXP LLCC UL!AC 15,9S 0S9.5EEXP LLCC UL+IC 15.1S 0S8,4EULAC 1640S 956.9EULfIC 16.3S 055.7EINIT OBS UL6C 16,1S 052.OEULAC 17.SS 05i.BEULAC 18.2S 05i.iEULCIC 16.0S 950.iETO.5/6.5+ INIT OBS251

S’i’NOPTICFIXESFIX TIME FIx INTENSITY NEARESTNO. (z) POSITION ESTIMATE DATA (NM) COMMENTS16,9s S6 OE 035Qg@ 61976 61995 SHIFk ::::::16.8S 55. 3E 04007061976 61995 619843 a9063@ ‘.7,0s 53. 8E035 0s0 61976 6199S 61984NOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (x) INDICATE FIxEs UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEsT TFGCK PLIRpOSES.ITROPlcAL CVCL3NE 20s6cs T TRecK DtiThIBES,TRhCKIJARNING4:4.4.5.5.G.6.7,8,9,0,8.a.8.99,11’ WIND127,2 20 0.126.0 2s e,1S4.3 30 0.122. s 3s 15.1;!0.4 45 16.117.8 55 16.114.6 S5 16.111.0 5S 18.107.4 55 1s,l:;:; !5: ::.96, 2 3S 18:93, 1 30 i8,90.3 25 18.88,2 20 0,X6.1 e’a 0.POSITW$NDo 0.00 0.0 ‘a,0 0.01 122.2 32:0 120,7 4s6 117.6 S58 114.6 ~~.O 110.82 107. s 65S 103.8 60.s 101. s 45.S 96,0 403 93.1 3sS 9~:~ 30.0 0.@ 0.0 0.s?LL F;~H;STS TYPH00Ng4~;;LE4:~~~ 3s KTsURNG 48-HR 7e-HRIJRNG7iZ:HR&VG FORE CfIST POSIT ERROR 24. 142. 37s e, 0,0.%. ‘6VG RIGHT ANGLE ERROR17. 89. 229. Q.0,0. 0. e,eVG INTENSITY MfiGNITUDE ERROR4, I@, 12, 0.0. cl. 0,e.*VG INTENSITY B1fiS1:, 0,0. 0. 130,NUMBER OF FORECASTS 1:” i:”a 0 @QeDISTFINCE TRfiVELED BY TROPICRL CYCLONE 1S 240S, NMflVERfiGE SPEED OF TROPIC&L CYCLONE 1S 13, KNOTSTROPIC(+L CVCLONE 20SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO20SATELLITEFIxESFIxPOSITIONACCRVDvOR9KCODECOMMENTSSITEi27.3E126.8E1E!6.6E126.4E12S.9E126.2E12S.3E126.OE12S.2E125.5E124.6E124,9E124.6E124.2E124,2E123,6E123.2E122,4E123.OE122,4E121.4E122.OE121.8E121.6E120,6Ei21,0Ei20,8E119.9E120.lE119.OE119.2E118,3E118,3E117.6E117,4E116.8E116,SE116.lE115.SE115.lE114.6E113.4E112.5E112,6E111.SElli,9E110.6E11O,OE109.6E109.3E109.3E108.5E107.IE105,4ET2.072.oT1.S/1,5T2.0/2,0T2.S/2,5T3.0/3,0T2.5/2.ST3,5/3,5T3.0/3.0T3.0/3.0T3,0/3.5T3.5/3.5T4,0z4.0/D1.0/24NRS/D1.O/24HRS/D1.S/24HRS/D0,5/25HRs/S@,O/24HRSAJo/DOzDl,o/24HRs5/24HRsS/25HRSLILCC 14,4s 126,2EEXP LLCCULCC FIXEXP LLCC ULCC 13,9S 125.6EULCC 13.9S 125.2EULAC 13.6S 124,3ELILAC 12.8s 123,4EINIT OBS ULRC 13,7S 122.2EINIT OBSULAC 15.SS 122.5EUL9C 15.9S 122.SEINIT OBS ULCC 15,SS 121.lEUL9C 15.3S 121,0EULfIC 15.3S 119.9EULCC FIXULCC FIXlJLCC FIXULCCEVEULCCULCCULCCFIXFIXFIXFIXFIX

5s56575859E:x 6263x 64* 65x 6667686970?1?27374757677787980818283848586871s1,3s19,2s1!3,5s19,4s21 .0s19,7s2.!ss18.4s121.5s13.4s18.4s18.3s18.3s12!.5s18.6S18.9s18.3S1S,1S:1; .ss19.8S1’3.7s1$),2s105.7El@4.4Ela4.8E103.6E101.7E103. iE103.2E103.2El@O.5E102. OE101.7E100. QE98. 4E97. 9E97. OE96.8E96. lE9S SE95.2E94. SE94. BE95. OE::; ;:93. OE92. OE91. lE91 .2E9* 4E9@ 4E;3 .::84:9EPCN 6PcN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN GPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6FCN 6OCN 6PCN 6oCN 6FCN 4PCN 4PCN 4per+ 4PCN 5PCN 6PC.! 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PcN 4per+ 6pcri 4PCN 6PCN 5pcr$ 6PCN 6PCN 5T3.O/3.0T3,5/3.5T1.5/i.5T2.5/3.5T1.5z1.5T2,CT/3.0TO.0/l.0T1.t!/l.ST1.5fl.5T1.S/l.5T@.5/i.0TO.5/l.0TO.O~i.0TO.020.5/S@.0/24HRS/S@.0/24LlRS/W1.5~25HRS/LI1.0.’24HRS/W2.5Z2SHRS/lJ@.5/24HRS/D1.5/24HRS/W1.5/24HRS/W@.5,’24HRS/Wl,5/24HRS/D@.5/24HRSINIT OBSINIT OBSEXF LLCCExP LLCCExP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCINIT OBS EXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCExP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWFJDGPGTWKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCKGWCKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWFJDGPGTWKGIJCPGTWKGWCKGIJCPGTWKGWCKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWFJDGKGWCKGIJCFJDGNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X) INDICIITE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSESITROPICfiL CYCLONE 21SBEST TRACK DeTn[BEST TRfICK W.4RNING 24 HOUR FORECI?ST 4B HOUR FORECGST72 HOUR FOREC4STERRORSERRORSERRORSERRORSMO/DA/HR PoSIT WIND POSIT hl&+D D5T u;ND POSIT IJ;ND D5T W;ND POSIT W:NO DST W~ND POSIT tl;~D D5T LI;ND0213122 15.0 :::; 25 0.0 0.0 -e.0,0 0,0 00 0.0 -0.9.0 e.e0214002 15,9 35 0,9 0.% -0. m. 0.0 0,00.0 0.0 0.0 0. -0, 0:4:: ‘a. 14.9 46.7 4:: lGZ:@21412Z 14.9 46,1 40 ls. e 45,8 lB.-:: l::; 4::; 3;: I:j: -1:: ‘a. o 0.0 0. -0. :.0. 0.0 6.0 0. -0,021s002 143 46,2 .44 ;::; 46,8 40. 46. 0. i4.6 ~1.~ ;63: ;~~: –23.02151.22 13. s 45.6 46.3 40. 54. -5. 14.1 -5. 13,8 47.0 40. 83: 5. 0.0 8.0 e. ‘0. 0:021600Z 12 7 4s, s ~: ;::: -44:: 40 43, -If), 11,2 43:9 4s. 179. 5. 10.2 ~~:; 45. 321. 10. O.’a O.e 0. -e. 0,0216122 12.2 .16. 1 40. 29, -S, 10.9 4S,2 45. 166. 1@. 100 4S. 29S 15. e.fi 0.0 g. -0. 0,0?17002 1,?,1 46.8 40 lE.1 46.1 4s 41, S. 11.4 46,6 4S. 124. le. 1::: 47.5 4& 232. 20. @:@ 0,0 -0. 0,0z1712Z 12. s 47. s 35 12.3 47. s 40, 12, S. 11.7 48,6 40. 12S. 10. 0,0-0. 0. 0.0 0,0 a: -0. 0,0Z1800Z 13,1 47.8 3S 12.2 47. S 35. 54. g: 1::$ 4::: 3:: 14@. 10. 0.0 0,0 0. -0. :. 0,0 0.0 e. -0. 0.0218122 13.7 48.0 30 13.3 y:: ::. 30. -0. e. 0.0 9.0 0. -0. 0,0 (!.0 0. -0. 0,0219’aoz 14.3 48.2 20 14. ? 0, s. 0,0 0,0 0. -0. 0. 0.0 0.0 0. -0. 0: O.@ e.o 0. -0, 0,flLL FEI~3~;STSTYPHOONS WHILE OVER 3S KTSL!RNG 48-HR 7z;:R MR~G 2::HR 45:HR 7:i?HRhvG FORECAST POSIT ERROR 33. 145. 220.nVG RIGHT RNGLE ERROR 19. 65. 129.0. e. 0. 0, 0.4, 9. 12. 0, @. 63. 0, 0,tiVG 1NTEN51TV MAGNITUDE ERROR9VG IMTENSITV B1f15 2, 8. 0, 0.:. 0. :,NUMBER OF FORECGtSTS 1: a 5 a 00DISTANCE TReVELED BY TROPICRL CVC1.ONE ISRvERfiGE SPEED OF- TROPICAL CYCLONE 1S511. NM4. KNOTSTROPIcfiL CVCLONE 21sBEST TRfiCK DATO!40/DR/HR021 406Z021418Z021S062021 S18202160628EST TRACK WQRNINGPOSIT15,0 45,614,6 .16.313.9 4s 913,1 45.512.4 4S.8WIND POSIT40 14.8 46.2400@ e.o45 0.0 0.050 0.0 0.04s 0.0 0.0i&,iD0.0.0.0.4B HOUR FORECAST 72 HOUR FORECRSTERRORSERRORSPOSIT t,l~Nn _&T W;ND POSITIJ;NO D:T W~ND0.0 0,09.0 0.900 0,0 e. -0. =3: e.e 0.0 0: -0. 0.0.0 9,9 0, -e0.0 ‘2.’a -0. 0.0.0 0.0 0. -0. :: e.’a @.@ :: -0. :.0.0 0,0 0. -e 0.9 0.0 e. -0.ALL FORECASTSTVPHOONS WHILE OVER 3S KTSURNG f;::R 4B;HR 72;UR WR~G W-4HR 4~~HR 7~-HRAVG FORE CfIST POSIT ERROR37.fivG RIGHT 9NGLE ERROR s. 105. 0: @.0, 0, 0. 0:avG INTENSITY MAGNITUDE ERROR0, 1s 0. 0. 0, 0, 0. 0.*VG INTENSITY 81AS 0, -1;. 0. e. :. 0, 0. :,NUMBER OF FOR EC fiSTS 1 0 0 0 0DISTF!NCE TR6VELED By TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAVERAGE SPEEO OF TROPICfiL CYCLONE IS194. NM4. KNOTCTROPIC($L CYCLONE EISFIX POSITIONS FOR C’T’CLONE NO, 21SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(ZJFIXPuSITIONRCCR’fDVORAKCODEcOMMENTSSITE1:i34567813071313125313151@13181214000014@35@1406531412451414421419332G.OS14.8S1s.0515.1sJs 1s14.8S15.2s14.8S14.4s15.2sPCN sPCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6Ti.5/l.5 INIT OBST2.5/2.S/D1.O/24HRSEXP LLCCUL9C 14.8S 04S.SEULAC 14.9S 045.lET2.5/2.S INIT OBS ULfiC 14

~4.7s14.3s1:1.8S13.5s1:1 4s::!.4s13.1s12.6s12.ss12,5s12. -+s12.4s12. @s12.4s12.4s1:1.2s13.1s1:).1s13.4s14.4s13.8S14.0s46.3E46,3E45.7E45. GE45, @E46.6E45.5E45,6E45.5E4S.9E46,6E47,4E47. OE47.3E47. @E46.2E46.6E48. lE48. OE52.7E47.9E48. OEPCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN sPCN 4Pelf 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PcN 4PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6T3.0/3.0/DO.5/24HRSUL#Ic 14.8s @46,1EEXP LLCC UL(4C 14,?S 946,2ET3.0/3.5 /WO.5/24HRS EXP LLCCT3,5/3.S /D1.@/2-3HI?s ULAC 13,2S 045.7EULAC 11,8s 043.7EULAC 12.2S 044.3ET2,5/3,0/WGY.S/2SHRSEXP LLCC ULSC 11,5S C142.SEEXP LLCC ULAC 13,9S 044.8ET2.5/2.5T2,0/2.5Ti.S/2,ST2,0f2.0/SO.0/24HRS/LJO.5/24HRS/Wl,O/2-$liRSEXPINITLLCCOBSKGWCKGwCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGLJCKGWCKGLICKGWCKGWCKGWCKGLICKGWCKGLJCKGwCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGLICFJDGKGWCKGWCSYNOPTICFIXESTIME(z)FIXPOSITIONINTENSITY NE9RESTESTIMATE DATA (NM)COMMENTSli300@@12.1s 47. 7E03S@4s61968NOTICE - THE SSTERISKS (X) INDICATE FIXESUNREPRESENTATIVE 6ND NOT USED FOR BEST TR6CKPURPOSES.ALL F~~07;~STS TVPHOONS WHILE OVER 35 KTSWRNC48-HR 72;:RlJR~G 2:-t HR 4;:HR 7::HRnVG FORECFIST PosIT ERROR54. 1:!3: :::,hvc RIGHT 9NGLE ERROR ?6 0, 0:0, 0,0,evc INTENSITY MAGNITuDE ERROR 6, 8:a,8. 0, 0, 0.AVC INTENSITY PICIS ;: : ;:, e,0.0, 0. 0,NUMBER OF FORE C(ISTS 1:’00 e 0 0DISThNCE TPo>vEL, ED B’f TROPIC(+L CYCLONE IS 1416, NNWERACE SPE1 1) QF’ TROPICfiL CYCLONE IS 7, KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE 22SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 22SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO.~$~EFIxPOSITION ACCRY DVORAK CODE COMWENTSSITEULCC FIXINIT OBS ULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT OBS ULAC 12.2S 099.7EINIT OBSULAC 1,?,SS l@@,6EULCC FIXINIT OBS ULAC 12,7S 100.1EEXP LLCC&~CL~~c6S 100,4E~~lA+ &7S 103.3E254

32333435x 2$383940414.24344454647::so5152.535455565758596061626364656667686970;;737475767778;:818.2838485x ::88899@91921:;,SS 103.6E13.95 103.5E13,6S 105.OE13.7S 104.9E14.1s 105.2E14.5S 103.7E14.0S 104.5E14.SS 105.3E14.6S 10S.8E15.5S 104.4E1S.5S 106.1E16.2S 105.OE16.2S 104.7E1S.5S 104,SE1S.9S l@4,0E15.6S 104.7E15.8s 103.6E16.5S 103.5E15.8S 103.7E15.9S i03.2E16.2S 103.5Elfi.5S 102.8E1?.1S 103.8E17’.1S 103.I3E1;>.3S 103.6E17.3s 102.4E17.5s 10i?.4E17.6S 10I.9E1;’.4S i02.6E1;>,8S 101.2E17.6S 100.8E17.9S l@l.6E17,8S 101.8E17.6s 100.7E18.6S 101.6E18.2S 100.8E18.6S 100.7E18.9S 1L30.6E1:;,3S 101.3Elg,~s 99.8Elg),os 10’O,6E+9,6s 99.5E19.9s 100.OE19.3S 99,7E20.0S 99.5E20.7S 99. 7E$$:~~ 99.8E99. 7E21.0S 99.5E2j..OS 99.lE20.6S21.3S98.4E98.lE~;.~; 98.lE21;9s :Z:::23.3S 97,0E23.4S 96.6E24.4S 95.6E2s.2s 94.7E2S.6S 95.iEti!;.5s 94. 2EPCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN SPCN 5“PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6TZ.5/2.5T3.O/3.0T2.5/2.5T3,C/3.0T3.0/3.0T2.5/3,0T2.S2.5T3.0/3,0T2.S/3,0T3.0/3,0T3.5/3.5T3.SY/3,0T2.5/2.ST3,0/3.0T2,0/3.0T2.5/2,5T2.S/3.0T2.0/2.OT2,@/2.5TO.5/l.5/Dl,5/24HRS/Do.5/24HRS/DO.5/24HRS/SO.0/24HRSllJ@.5/24HRS/SCI.0/25t4RS/S.0,0/25HRs/LJ0,5/24HRS/D0,5/24HRS/Di.0/24HRS/so.0/24HRS/sO.0/24HRS/SO.0/24HRS/w1.5/24HRS/S@.0/24HRS/IJO.5z24HRS/SO.0z24HRS/W0,5/24HRS/111.5/24HRSINITOBSULAC 15.3S 105.1EULAC 15.9S 103.7EULAC 15.0S 104.7E“ULAC 16.0S 103.8EULCC FIXULRC 18.1S 10@.9EUL9C 19.2S 100,9EULR. 19,5S 101.3EULAC 19,6S l@O.2EUL6C 20.1S 099.OEExPEXPExPEXPEXPLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCNOTICE .- THE ASTERISKS (x) INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES.BEST TRACK LJflRNINGW;ND0.32.40,40,40,45.4s40.3s40.35.3s40,40.so.45.7e?055.45.45,40,40.30.0,PosO.e0.00.00,00,00.90.00.e0,0e,e0,0e,e0,9e.o0.00.0e,’a0,00.0e.o‘e. @O,@0.00.00.00.00.072 HOUR FORECfiSTERRORSIT LI:ND DST U&400.0 -0.0,9 0. -e0,0 e. -0. ::9.0 0, -0.O.e e. -0.0.0 :. -@ ::0.0 -0.0.0 0: -0. ::O.e 0. -0. 0.e.0 e. -0, 0.0.0 0. -e, 0.0.0 :. -e. e.e.e -e. e,e-a e: -e. 0.e.e e. -e. e.e.e e. -e. e.e. -e~:; ~. -e. ::e.e -e”. e.e.o e: -e. e.e.e g. -e. e.e.e -e. e.e.e 0: -e. e.o.e e. -e. 0.0.e e. -e. 0.e.e e. -e. e.e.e 0. -e. e.ALL F13;3;;STSL!ENG ;;;:R 72;~RhvG FORECFIST POSIT EFROR 4s, 94.hVG RIGHT ONGLE ERROR 31. 53. 58. 0,RVG INTENSITV MAGNITUOE ERROR 11. 15, 0,AVG INTENSITY El 9S -;: -3. -s. 0,NUMBER OF FORECfiSTS 23 22 20 @DISTRNCE TRtIVELED B’i TROPIC*L CYCLONE IS 129B NMhVERfiGE SPEED Of’ TROPICfIL CYCLONE 1S 4. KNOTSTYPHOONS WHILE OVER 3S KTSwR~G 2~~HR 48-HR 7~~HR0.0, e. :. e.0, 0. e.0, e. g: :.0 %255

TROPIC6L CVCLONE 23SFIX POSITIONS FOF? C’fCLONE NO, 23SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)CTY ..,.POSITION4CCRVDVOR#IKCODECOVMEN-SSITE5x :89PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PC!+ 6PCN 4PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 5PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 5PCN 1PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 4PCN SPCN 4PCN SPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 3PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3T1.5/l.5Tl,O/1 ,5 /WQ),5. &!44RSTl,5/1.5 /DQ,5/2S-lRST1.k3/l.0T2,5/2.sTi,5/l,s/SO,O/24HRST1.5/l,S /W0,5/24HRST2.5/2,5 /SO,O.,24HRST3.@/3,0 /Dl,5/24HRsT2.5/2,5 /SO,O/25HRST2.O/3.0 /W1.0/24HRST1.5/2.5 /W1.0/24HRST1.5/2.0 /WO.5/24HRST2.5/2,5 /Di.0/24HRST2.0/2.0 /SC).n/24HRST3.@/3.0 /DO.5/24HRST2.5/2.S /S@.O/24HRST&!.5/2.S /S0,L3/24HRST3,5/3.5 /DO.5/25HRST3,0/3.o /DO.5/2SHRST4.5~4.5 /Dl,O/24HRST3.0/3.0 /SO,O/24HRST2.5/3.5 /W2,0/24HRST2,5/3.0 /lJ@.S/24HRST3,@/3.0 /DO.5/24HRST2,5/2.5 /SO,O/24HRST2.s/2.sTi.0/2.@ /W1.S/24HRST2.o/2,0 /l)i.0/24HRsT1.0/2,0 /W1.0/25HRSINIT0B5LILfIC 1s,1S 05!3,3EINIT ‘3BSUL6C 15.1S 0S7,2EINIT OBSULAC 15.0S 0S6.6EExPLLCCUL9C 15.9S 057,8EUL9C 15.6S 055,SEUL6C 15.6S 0S5,7EULAC 15,2S OSS.6EULf?C 15.3S 055,2EEXPLLCCULflC 16,7S ‘3S3.7EEXP LLCC UL$IC 17.0S C152.OEEXP LLCC UL/IC 16.9S @S1.9EULRC 1S.0S OS1.8EULFIC 1S.6S 052.lEULf?C lS.3S. OSO.4EULAC 1S.9S 0S2.4EULOC 1S.3S 051,7EULAC 16.0s C152.3EULfIC 16.9S 0S2.OEEYE FIX ULf)C 16.4S 0S2.6EULAC 16.2S 0S2,2EULAC 1S.3S 052.3EEVEEYEEYEFIXFIxFIXULFIC 22,5S 052,2EEXP LLCC ULf)C 22,5S 61S3.OEUL9C 22,7S 054,2EULAC 23,8S 051,8EULAC 23,c3S 051,SEULAC 24,0S L352.IEULAC 24,0S 9S2,2EUL(lC 24,6S CIS2,.2EUL9C 24,SS 0S2,6EULAC 24,6S 0S4,3E:~1-; &8S 054.6EULRC 27,0S OSS.6EExP LLCCExP LLCCExP LLCCEXP LLCCExPLLCCKGWCKGWCKGLJCKGwCKGWCKGIJCKGLJCKGWCKGWCKGIJCFJDGKGLJCKGwCKGwCKGLICKGWCKGIJCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGLICKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGLJCKGWCKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGLICKGIJCKGWCKGLICFJDGKGWCKGLICKGLICKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGLICKGUCKGWCFJDGKGLICKGwCKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGLICKGWCKGLICKGwCKGLICKGWCKGLICKGWCKGUCKGWCKGIJCKGIJCFJDGKGLJCKGIJCKGWCKGWCKGwCKGLICKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKG(JCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X)INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TR8CK PURPOSES.~BEST TR6CK LMRNING 24 HOUR FORECfiST48 HOUR FORECAST 72 HOUR FORECASTERRORSERRORSUO/DfI/HRERRORSPOSITERRORSUIND POSIT WIND DST LI;ND POSIT L&40 DST LJ~:D POSIT lJINIa DST W;~D POSIT WjND D5T U;ND$:;:$~; ;::: 7s,7 30 k3,0 0,0O.e 0,0 -e0,0 0:: 7:, ,1::: ‘a,’a 0.977.6 35 14,0 73,4 3:: e:~: 0. 16.3 70,0 SS, 627. 2S. 17.745. 0,00219122 13,8 79.10.0 e. -e, e:79,4 35.0, 16.8 6x3.4 4S, 167. 20. 0.0 0.0 0 -0, 0. 0,0 e,e e,0220002 15,2 89.8 ~~ ;g:j 80.4 3s.-e. e.5. 1~:~ 79.2 3:; 4:; ie. 00 0.0 e. -0. g: 0.0 0.0 e. -e. e.0.22912Z 17.0 83.3 25 16.7 81.1 3:: 15:: s.0.00.0 0.0 e, -0.e.9 0.0 e.022i WZ 18.6 86.7 2S 0.0~~, e.0.0-e, e. 0.0 0.0 0, -e: :; 0.0 e.e e. -0, e. 0,0 e.e 0. e.256

dAVC FORECRST POSIT ERRORAVG RI GliT FINGLE ERRoRfiVG INTENSITY MJ+GNITUDE ERROR*VG INTENSITY BI asNUMBER OF FOREC24HRS/SC3,0/27tiRSINIT OBSINIT OBS ULAC 12.8s 121,1EULRC 14.1S 117.4EULGC 13.3s 118.sEINIT OBSULAC 13.5s 118.5EUL9C 15.4S 116.3EPGTWKGWCKGwCPGTLJKGIJCPGTwKGWCPGTwPGTLJKGWCKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWC

16% 1718x 19x 20* 212223242s2627x 2:* :?32x ::3536:;39404142434445* !:48495051525354555657:;60616263646566676S697071;5;2x 76777879:!8283848586878a899091929394959697981;;101102103104105106107108109110111112113*114115116117118119120121t810011812001814491816001818B018210018224119@’ZIOO1903@n190330::;:!:1909001909391912001914291916601918001918S619210019222020000020n30020@3102@@60@20074220090020110020120020160L320180020184620210020234821000021B.249216$300~;:;:l21090021103821120e2115302116002118@@21183S21210t321234922000022022922030022@6002207212209@022101722120’a2215102216002Z1800221824226!10023@0002300392303002303S02306002307i02309@023113723120023144923180023195524000024001?24030e24033024068024084124084124e9e024111624120024142924160024180024194S2421002423S6258000~;g:g;2506092S083025e9002510S52512002S15S0251808251934~:g:;;260600261033~;~:~~14.5S 117.5E15.6s ils.8E15.4S 117)9E15.6S 115.6E1S.2S llS.3E1S.8S 114.8E15.3s 116.8E14.9s 116.2E1S.1S 115.7E14.9s 116.8E15.1S 115.2E1.5.0S 115.lE1S.3S 115.OE14.9S 113.9E1s.3S 114.3E17.1S 113.3E15.3S 114.OE1S.3S 113.8E16.8S 112.8E1S.2S 113.lE14.8S 112.5E15.5S 112.4E16.0S 113.OE14.8S 112,7E15,8S 112.2E1S.1S 112.OE15.8S 111.7E16.0S 111.3E16.1S 111.3E1s,9s ILC$.8E15.9S 110.4E17.0S lil.lE15.7S 11O.OE16.0S 110.2E16.0S 109.7E16.0S1s,7s109.9Eleg,lE16.1S 108.9E16,0S i08.9E16.2S 108.3E1S.8S 108.lE16.2S 107.7E16.9S 107.OE16.lS 106.7E16.3S 106,1ElG.6S 106.5E16.1S 10S>6E17.0S 105,4E16.0S 10S.2E17.3S 105.2E16.8S 104.8E17.1S iL34.4E1?.SS i03.4E17.0S 103.SE1?.4S 104.lE17.0S 102.9E18.4S 103.OE17.3S 102.2E17.4S 10I.6E18.8S 103.2E17,8S 101.OE18.7S 102.6Elg,es 102,4E18.9S 10i.8E19.0S 101>9E1s).3s 101,4ElsI.4S 101.6E19.5S 100.9E20.5S 100.lE19.8s l@@.2E21.1s 99.4E20. 6S 99. lE21.1S 99. SE22, 0s 98. IE22.3S 98. 6E22. 6S 97. 5E$~.;~ 97.8E96. 9E23:2S 96.9E23. 2S 96. 8E23. 3S 96.7E23. 7S 96. 5E23. 4S 95. 9E24 .SS 96. 2E24. SS 9S.7E24.7S 9S.4E25.1S 96. 4E2s.1s 94. 9E25.7S 9S . 7E26, 0s 95.4E26. 6S 95.SE2G.7S 96. OE27. 4S 95. 3E27. 5s 9S SE28.2S 95. SE28.2s 95. 2E28.6S 94. 7E28. 7s 95.3E29.0s 94. 4E30. 0S 9s . 8E31.3s 96. OE33. 5s 97. 7E:;. :2 97. 7E98, 2E36: 0s 99.6E37.SS 102.8EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6FCN 4PCN 2PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4T2.0/2.0T3.0/3.0T3,5/3.5T3.5/3.5T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS/D2.0/24HRS/D2.0-’25HRS/D1.S/24HRST4.@/4.0-/Dl.0/24HRST3.S/3.5 fSO.0/24HRST4,5f4.5/Di.0z24HRSLILRC 14,4S 116.3EULAC 14.0S i15.9EULQC 14.5S 117.2EULC!C 15,4S 113,9EULAC 14.1S 114.9EULRC 14.SS 114,2EINIT OBS ULAC i6,5S 113,8EUL6C 15.0S 112.6EULCC FIXULRC 16.3S 112.9EULAC 16,8SULCC FIXT3.0/3.5 /WO.5/24HRST3.5/4.@ /WO.S/24HRS ULCC FIXULCC FIXT3.S/3.ST3.0/3.5T3.5/3.5T3.5/3.5T3.0/3.5T3.0/3.5T2,5/3.5T2.S/3.5/SO.0/48HRS/W1.5/24HRS/DO.5/24HRSzSO.O/24HRS/W@.5/24HRSfS@.@/24HRS/W1.@/24HRS/W1.0/25HRSULCCFIXULCC FIXULRC 16,6SULCC FIXULCC FIXULCCULCCULCCULCCFIXFIXFIXFIXULCC FIXULAC 17.3SULCC FIXUL6C 17.4SULCCygFIX;;xosT2.S/3.O /UO.5/24HRS ULAC 20.4SEXP LLCCT3.S/3.5T3.,S/3.5T3.5/3.ST2.5/2.ST3.5/3.5T2.S/3.5T2.0/2.5T1.5/2,5T2.5/3.nzDl,O/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/S@,@/24HRS/SO.0/24HR5/W1.0/2SHRS/UO.S/2SHRS/W’J.5/24HRS/Lll.0/27HRS110.2El@7.SE103.5E102.7E102.3EEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCC ULfIC 18.6S 101.7EEXP LLCCEXPINITULCCLLCCOBSFIX999. OE095. 5E095. 5EUL9C 3S.0S 100.3EEXPEXPLLCCLLCCKGWCPGTLIKGbJCPGTIJPGTWPGTWKGLICPGTLJPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTIJPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKG(JCPGTWPGTldPGTwKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTwKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTL!KGWCPGTUPGTWKGIAICPGTWKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTIJPGTwKGhlCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTIJPGTWKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTblKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTLJKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTWKGLICFJDGPGTUKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTIJKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGLJCPGTIJKGIJCKGIJCKGWCPGTWKGIJCKGWCKGUCNOTICE - THE 6STERISKS (x) INDICfiTE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE fIND NOT USED FOR BEST TRFtCK PURPOSES258

BEST TRfiCK LWIRNING24 HOUR FORECAST 48 HOUR FORECfiST ?2 HOUR FORECfiSTERRORSHO/ DfI/HRERRORSERRORSWIND POSIT LI;;D ERRORSDST U&4D POSIT U~ND DST WIND POSIT021906Z 12 P; S;45.2W~~E DST W;ND25 O.@ 0,0POSIT-0.W;ND -15T U&ND0.0 @,@ez19i8z 14.1 145.9 2S-0. 0, 0.0 0,0 -0.0,9e,e 0.00,0 ~:: 0, @o 0.L30, 0,0eze006z 15, s 146,7e,o 0,35 15.2 146,7-0. 0: 0,94::0.0 f!: -e: ::5. 1?. ? 142,6 6:: 1;:: 20, 20,2 1s9,7@2201sz 17.7 148.070, 1:::45 17,4 147. s40. 0,94s e. -0.3:; 0. 21.4 150.0 S5. 70. 20, 24.1 152,9 S@.O221O6Z 20,4 149,5 40 20.3 149. S25, 0.940,::: e.0. 24.8 1S3.0-e. e:35. lee. 5. 2~:; 15;.~ 3;, 271.022118Z 22,3 1se,8 35 23,4 151,610. 0.0 0.0 e3s 79. ?3, 28.5 155, s-0.0,25. z82. e,022206Z 23,4 1S2.0 30 23,3 151,7-0. e. 0,0 0.0 e: -e. O,35. 18. 5. 2;.: 12.::: 3:: 167, 10, @o 0:0 0.ozazlsz 24.0 1s4.0 25 ?4,4 15j:~ 25.-e, e. 0,0 0.0 e.32, 0. -0.0.-e. 0. 0,0 0.0 0,e2230sz 23.9 156.1 20 0,0e. 0,0e. -e, e,0.0 0.0:0 0.0 0.-e. e,-0, 0, 0.0 0.0 e. ‘~: e. 0,0 0.0 e. -e. e,PILL F~~~j~STSIJRNG ;;;HR 72-HR6VG FORECeST POSIT ERROR31. 1;; 0.AVG RIGHT ,+NGLE ERROR16.I;g ; 6.fiVG INTENSITY FWIGNITUDE ERROR 2. 11:0.I+VG INTENSITY SIFIS2. ii. 2:.0,NUMBER. OF FORECnSTS6 eDISTeNCE TRPOIELED BY TRoPIC6L CYCLONE IS 97S. NMAVERAGE SPEED OF TROPICAL CVCLONE 1S10. KNOTS“;;~HOONS UHILE ovER 3S KTSZj~HR 4~THR 73-HR0.0, 0. e. 0:0, 0. e. e.e. 0,e. 0,0e e 0TROPICRL CYCLONE ~6”PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO,26S9TELLITEFIXESFIXNO.FIxPOSITIONACCRYDVORAK CODE COMMENTSSITE2.1S 137.8E5.0S 138.OE2.4S 145.2E2,7S 145.3E3.9S 14S.5E4,3S 145,9E4.3S 146.3E4.4S 146.4E4.6S 146.9E4,9S 146.6E4,8S 146,SE3.5S 146.5E;,0S 146,9E;,4S 147.3E3,8S 147.4E7.2S 147,4E7,0S 147.5E?.SS 147,SE3,3S 148.SE7.9S 148.OE3.5S 148,3E3,3S 148,9E3.5S 149,0E3,9S 149,2E3.3S 149,SEL.4S 15@,2E3.4S 150,7E3.1S 151,5E3.3S 1!52.6E$.6S lS1.9E5.2S 152,7E3.2S 151.2E3.1S lS1.lE3.2S lS1.3E3.2S 151.4E3.5S 151.9E1.3S 1S2.4E3,SS 153,2E*,OS 153.7E$.1S lS3,0E+.9S 1S4,3E3.8S 155.lE3.7s 155,6E3,9S 156.2E3.9S 158.7E?,2S 160.9EPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN GPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 2PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4T1.5/l.sT1.0/i.0T2.S/2,ST2.5/2,ST2,5/2.ST3.0/3.O/D1.5/21HRS/D1.5/22HRST2,S/2.5 /S@,@/24HRsT2.5/2.5-/S@,0/24HRST2.5/2.5T1.0/2.0Ti,O/2.@TO.0/@,OT@,@/i,@TO.O/l;OTO,O/O.0/S21,0/24HRS/W1.5/24HRS/W1.S/24HRs/111.@/24HRsYtJI.O/Z4HRS/SO.0/24HRSINIT 06SINIT OBSULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXINIT OBS ULfiC 16.BS 147.OEULCC FIxULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCINIT OBS EXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCExP LLCCExP LLCCExP LLCCEXP LLCCKGuCKGUCPGTWPGTWPCTUPGTuPGTWPGTLJKGUCPGTUKGWCPGTu::;~KGIJCPGTUKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTUPGTUKGUCPGTUKGIJCPGTWPGTUPGTUKGWCKGWCPGTIJPGTUKGWCPGTIJKGIJCPGTUPGTUKGUCPGTIJPGTuKGUCKGUCKGUCPGTIJPGTUPGTUPGTuNoTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X)INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PuRPOSES.BEST TRllCK LJFIRNING 24 HOUR FORECfIST48 HOUR FORECeST 72 HOUR FOREChSTERRORSERRORSPOSITWINDERRORSPosiTlJ~ND DST U;:D ERRORSPOSIT W;ND &T U~ND POSIT u&411 DST U;NO16.7 170,7 30 0.6POSIT0.0U;~D & u&tD0.0 0,0e.e.r 0,0-0, .17.6 172,0e.e35 0.0 0.0e.e-e. e,e, -e: e. 0,019.5 173.3e.e35 19,7 172.90.0 e.e e.3Z : 26, e, 2;:; 17g1~-e: e:72. e. 26.7 i79.3 3:: is:: -2g:21,4 1?4.9 40 21.8 1?S.3e.e 0.0 e.3s 33.-e. e.-S. 2S,7 178,7 ~~:-s, 2::~ 181,3 3;; 2~~. -15,23,1 176.7 45 24. S 176.50.0 0.0 g.4s as.-e. e.0. 29.7 179,7 35. 2~~: -2e.0.024.2 179.0 50 25. B 17S.2e, 0.0 9,0 g.45. ies. -s, 3e. i i80.8 ~~: f;:: -i::::. :.0.9 0.0 e. -e: e, e.e2s.0 18e.8 SS 26.6 180.1e.S0, 103. ‘S. 30,0 182,40.026.1 iB2.3e.50 26,2 1S,?.9-e. e, 0.0 .~;g e.50. 33.~:.::0. 3~:: i8~:3 4:: 346, 0, 0.0 ;:: e29,4 lss, s 4S .SS,4 185.5-e. e, 0.0 9.9 e. .4s. ~~, e,-e. e, 0.0 0.0 e. -e. g,34.3 i91. e 40 3s,1 i9i,50.0 0,0 e.40. e,-0.9:0,0 0.9 e, -e, e. 0.0 e.e e. -e. e, 0.0 0.0 e. -e. e.

ALL F~~W?;~STSURNG ;;JHR 7Z;HR4VG FORECFIST POSIT ERROR 6i? 203.five R1cHr fINGLE ERROR 56. 13;. 1s9./)VG 1NTENSIT% MfiGNITUDE ERROR 18. ::AVG INTENSITY BIAS -2: -:: -i?. e.NUMBER OF FORECtiSTS E 0DISTQNCE TRI+VELED BY TROFICfiL CVCLONE 1S 1s39 NMGVERAGE SPEED OF TROPICFIL C’fCLONE IS 14. KNOTSTYPHOON~4~~~LE4~~~~ 3S KTSIJRri:72-HR0, 0. 0,0. 0, 0. 0.a. 9, 0. 0,0. :. 0. 0.e ‘a 0..,:TROPICAL CYCLONE 27PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 27SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOTIME(z)FIXPOSITION9CCRYDVOR6K CODE COMMENTSSITE**.xxxPCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN GPCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4T1.@/l.@T1.5/i.5T1.5/l,ST2.5/2.5Tl,S/1.S/D1.@/24HRS/SO.O/24HRSINIT OBSULCC FIXINIT OBS EXP LLCCINIT OBS EXP LLCCEXP LLCCULAC 16.9S 172.9EULRC 1?.0S 172.OEULfiC 16.8S 171.5EULCC 16.9S 171ULCC FIXT2,5/2.5INIT OBS LILACULCC FIXT3.O/3.0 /D@.5/24HRS ULfIC 18.SS 172T2.5/2.5 /D1.O/24HRS ULCC FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXTZ.5/2s5/SO.0/24FlRST2.0z2.O INIT OBSULAC 20.6S 174.9ET3.0/3.O /SO.0/24HRS ULFIC 21.8S 176.3ET3.0/3.0 zDO.5/24HRST3.5/3.ST2.S/2.S-/DOT3.5/3.ST3>S/3.S-/DOT3.S/3.5T2.5/3.ST3.0/3.5TO.0/l.S/D1.13/24HRS.5/22HRS/DO.S/24HRS.5z24HRS/S’21,0/24HRS/W1.0/24HRS/w@.5/24HRS/W2.S/24HRSULCC 23.SS 17B,@EUL9C 23.SS 176.9EULCC 23.9S 177.6E4ES.8S 171.3ESEULCC FIXRGD EVE DIA 1 DEGULCC FIXULCC FIXULAC 24.7S i80.OE:~1~ ;;X9S 172,9EULCC FIXULCC FIXUL9C 24.9S 179.4WULCC FIXULfiC 28.8S 173.7WULRC 30,2S 172,4WEXPLLCCPGTWP(ITWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTLIKGWCKGWCKGLJCKGWCPGTwPGTIJPGTwPGTWKG(JCPGTwKGWCPGTwPGTWPGTWKGWCKGWCKGWCPGTWKGWCKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGLJCKG(JCKGWCKGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X)INDICI?TE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES.BEST TRACK LII+RNINGPOSIT11,5 93, s12.1 91.812,9 +0,213,6 SS,613.7 86,914,3 B5,61s.3 84.916.6 84.3;;:: 84,.284, s19.8 8S,020.7 85.621,5 86.222.4 86,823, s 87. s24,4 89,126.0 91.7Wj~D POSIT0.0 0,04s 12,0 90.8S5 12,7 90,87S 13,9 88,19s 13,9 86.6105 13,7 8S.011’J 1s.2 84.911S 16.3 84,1115 17.6 84.310s 19.4 8S.290 19,8 85.07S 20.6 85.565 20.9 86.0S5 22,3 86.6S0 24.0 88.’a4S 24.9 88.940 26.3 91.5W;(+O3s45.60.65.90.10s.120.12s.120.90.70.55,55.50.4s40,7Z HOUR FoRECFISTERRORSPOSIT W;:D DST w&D0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0, -0. 0.8.!? 0,0 0, -0. 0.0.9 0.0 cl, -0. 0.0.0 0.0 e, ~:. 0.@e O.e e. 0.0.0 9,$3 0, -0: 0.0,0 0,0 0. -0. :.0,9 9,0 0, -0.0.0 0.0 0, -0, 0:0.0 0,0 :, -8, 0.9.43 e.o -0. 0.O.’a 0.0 e: -a, 0,0,0 e.o 0. -0, ‘a.0.0 e.e f), -e, 0,0.0 0.0 0. -e. :.0.0 0,0 e. -0,9LL F~~CI~~5TSLIRNG48-HR6VG FORECAST POSIT ERROR27. 101. ;:;AVG RIGHT FINGLE ERROR 16, 68..c)VG INTENSITY MflGNITUDE ERROR 8. 18. 29:AVQ lNTENSITV 816S ;: ;:NUMBER OF FORECASTS 12TVPHOON~4W&LE4~~~~ 35 KTS72-HRURt’i:7.2:HR0,0. 0.0, 0. 0. 0, e.0. e. 0, 0, ::0, 0. 0. e,0 0 e e 0260

D15ThNCE TRfiVELED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE IS u 1389, NMAVERAGE SPEED OF TROPICnL CYCLONE IS 7. KNOTSFIXTROPICfiL CYCLONE 28sPOSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 28SfITELLITEFIXES;;XTIME(z). . . ..fim..FIXPOSITION T DVORfIK CODEFtbtimCOMMENTSSITE$345$81:1112i~x 15161718::21222324252627:::!32* 3334353637383940414243444s46:Z;;S25354555657S85960616263646566676869707172737475;?;:8081828384858687888990919293949596979810.6S10.5s11.3s11.2s11.4S10.3s11.2s12.0s11.ss11.ZS11.9s12.7s12.0s12.6S10.7s12.2s12.5S12.8S12.9513.4s13.1s13.4s13.8S13.6S13.6S13.4s13.5s13.5s13.5s13.1s13.5s13.8S12.9s13.6S14.0s14.0S14.3s13.8Si3.as14.5s14.5s14.6S14.7s14.7s1s.1s15.1s15.4s15.6S1s.5s16.2S1[;.7s16.7S1-?.0s17.1s17.1s17’.4s17.6s17.2s17’.9s18.5S1s.4s18.6S18.8S18.9s19.4s19,3s~9.8S19.3s19.7s19.9s19.4s20.2s19.5s21.3S20.1s22. 1s20.4S20.3S20. 3s20. 5s20.9s20. 8S21.7S22.2s22.6S22. 1s23.3S23.9s23.5S23. 8S24.1S24.4S25.0S26 .0s25,6S26, 0s26,4S26. 7S98.8E99.2E95.lE94 3E93, lE97.3E92. 2E93. 4E91.9E91 .6E91 .8E91 .8E91 .5E91 .7E9@ . 2E91 .OE91 .2E9@.9E90.7E89.7E89.7E89. 4E89.5E88. 7E87. 5E88. GE87. OE87. 9E87. SE86.2E86.7E86.4E87.OE86. 4E86.lE85. 5E86. OE85. 3E84. 7E85. 5E85. 2E85.8E85.IE85. 3E84. 9E85. OE85. OE84, 9E84. 6E3.4> .6E84.4E84.9E84.iE84.8E84,0E83.9E84. 4E84.2E84. 9E84,6E84.8E84.7E84.lE84.7E85.3E84.4E85.OE84.7E85,5E85. 5E85.lE86.iE85.lE86.3E85.5E86.4E85,5E85.5E84.7E85.7E84.6E8S.9E86.OE86.6E87.2E85. 5ES7.SE87.9E87. 4E88. 2E89. 2E89.3E90.5E91.C!E!99.L3E94: SE9S.6EPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPC NPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCNPCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 5PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3T1.5/i,5T3.0/3.0T1.5/i.5T2,S/2.5T2,Sf2,5T2.O/2.0T3,@/3.@T3.@/3.0T3.5/3.5T3.0/3.0T4.5/4.5T4.6/4a0T4.5/4.5T5.5~5.5T5.O/5.OT5.O/S.0T6,S/6.5T6.5/6.5T6.0/6.0T5.5/6.5T4.0/5.0/DO.5/24HRS,’Dl.0/24HRS/DO.5/25HRS/D1.5/22HRS/DO.5/25HRSzDO.5/24HRSfD1.5/24HRS/DO.S/24HRS/D1.0/24HRs/D1.0/25HRs/D1.0/24HRS/D@.5/24HRS/Dl,O/25HRS/D1.5/25HRS/D1.0/24HRS/W1.0/24HRS/lJ2.5/24HRSINIT 08SULRC 12.0S 098.OEINITOBSULCC 12.1S 091.OEULf$C 12.4S 091,@EULCC FIXULCC FIXEVE FIXULCC FIXULCC FIXEYE FIXULCC FIXEYEEYEEYEE’fEEYEEVEFIXFIxFIXFIXFIXFIXEVE DIf) S/2,ST2.S/3.0T1.S/2,ST1.5/l.5TI+5/2.5/DCI.5/24HRS/W@,5f24HRS/W1.@/24HRS/Wl,O/24HRS/uI,*/24HRsNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (x) INDICfiTE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE087.3E@88.@E@9i.4E093.3EAND NOT USED FOR BEST TR9CK PURPOSES.KGWCKGWCKGWCPGTWFJDGKGUCPGTUKGUCPGTWPGTWKGwCPGTWKGWCPGTwFJDGKGWCPGTwPGTL!KGWCKGWCPGTwPGTwKGWCPGTWPGTuKGUCPGTWKGLJCKGIJCFJDGPGTwPGTWKGwCKGwCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTLIKGwCFJDGKGUCPGTWKGWCKGLICPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTwPGTwKGWCFJDGKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTIJKGWCPGTwKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTwKGIJCPGTWKGIJCPGTwKGWCKGWCPGTuKGWCPGTwKGLJCKGWCKGWCKGWCPGTWKGWCKGWCKGWCKGUCKGWCKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGwCKGUCKGuC261

BEST TRACK U6RNING 24 HOUR FOREC@ST48 HOUR FORECOST 72 HOUR FoREC6STERRORSMO/DA/HR POSITERRORSWIND POSITERRORSUIND ERRORSDST WIND POSIT0308062WIND DST WIND POSIT12.4 117.7LJINC DST ~l:D3s 11.9 11?.0POSIT L!;:D -EST U&4D40. S1 s, 13,7 116.1030818265. 28@.13,6 11.9,210, 1: : 11s,0 80 56s4S 12.8 113.0 L3,’a e,e4s 85. e, 14.9 118.6 6S 266.0309062 15,8 l;!O, s10, 0,0 @SS 16,0 120,8-e. 0. ‘J.0 0,0 t).30.-o: e.e. 2;:: 122.603’d9i 823:: l!:: -1s,18.2 li!1,70.0 0,0-e. 0. 0.0 0,9 e,55 18.5 121.7 ;~; 18,-0. e,-5.0.003100620,20.1 123,50.0 0.04s 20.2 123,7:: -0. 9. e.L3 O,e 0,13. 0. 0.0-e. 0,0.0 0. -0. 9,00O,@ 0, -0. 0. @.@ 0,0 0, -e. 0.aLL F~~~;~STSIJRNG48-HR 72-HRFIVG FORECAST POSIT ERROR39. 2;; ; S6S 8.WC RIGHT eNGLE ERRoR.23. 23S0.!4VG INTENSITY N(IGNITuDE ERROR 2. 12. 3s0.f7VG INTENSITY 81FIS0. 2. 3;.0.NUMBER OF FORECOSTSs 3 0DISTfiNCE TRaVELED B’f TROPICaL CYCLONE IS S79 NMTYPHOONS WHILE OVER 35 KT5WRiXG 2$:HR 4::HR ?~,?HR‘e. 0.9. 0.‘a.0. e.e.0, e.e. e,00 e eflVERAGE SPEED DF TROPICAL CVCLONE IS12. KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE 29SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 29SATELLITEFIXESFIXNOFIxPOSITION ACCRV DVORflK CODE COMMENTSSITE12.0S 117.lE12.0S IIB,9E11.7S 117.4E11.9S 116.8E13.1s 118.SE12.8S 118.5E11.9s llB.4E13.3s 118,BE13.7S 119.3E12.6S 118.9E13,2S 119.SE14,0S 120,2E14.4S 119,9Ei4>7S 120.4E15.4S 120.4E16>1S 120.SE16,8S 120.8E17,4S 120.8E17.SS 121.lE17,7s 121.OE18,1S 121.5E18.3S 122.SE18.8S 122.OE19.2S 123.OE19.3S 122.3E19.5S 123.lE19.6S 123.OE20.0s 123.5E22.7S 12S.2E24,4S 126,7EPCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5“PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5Tl,O/1.0T3,0/3.OT2.S/2.ST3.0/3.0T2.5/2,ST3.5/3,S-/DOT3.5/3,s/Di.5/24HRS.5/24HRS/Di.6/24HRSItlITINITOBSOBSULfiC 15!.7S li7,3EULAC 13,1S 116.8EULRC 13,9SULACls.es~Bi~Eesi9.SE20. 4EULAC 23.9S i23,8Eii7,9EPGTIJKGUCPGTIJPGTIJKGWCKGWCPGTblKGWCKGUCPGTUPGTIJKGIJcPGTIJKGIJCPGTuPGTuPGTUKGLICPGTuKGUCPGTUKGWCPGT(JKGIJCPGTUKGUCPGTWPGTldKGUCKGIJCNOTICE - THE fISTERISKS (Xl INDICfETE FIXES UNREPRESENTI.)TVEfiNDNOT USED FOR BEST TR(4CK PURPOSES.TROPICAL C?CLONE ~ept ““- 8EST 7RacK DI+T4 fjBEST TRfiCK WARMING 24 .HOUR FORECflSTMO/D fI/HR POSIT LJIND POSITU;~DERRDRSERRORSDST Ll&4D POSIT U;ND D5T U~:D8:::::; 14,7 170.4 25 $3.0 0.00.0 e.e14,9 167.9 30 0,0 0.0 Q, -e. 0, 0,0 r$. e-e.031300Z 14,1 166.1 4@ 14.4 165.9 44? ::; 0, 14. S 162.4 5~: 176. -:: :03131ZZ 13.3 iEis, O 50 12.9 164.9 4s,-s, 12.0 16.2,3 5s, 212, -25, !0314062 12, S 164.6 60 13.0 164.6 S5, 30. -S, 12.4 163, S 7S, 224. -2S, j0314122 11.8 165.9 80 11.4 165.6 65. 30. -1S, 19.0 168.3 99, 180. -30, j0315%02 12.1 1S7,3 l@O 11,7 167.4 sO 2s -20, 11.8 t7e,7 110, 177, -2e,0315122 12,8 169,4 120 12,8 169.4 119. ;. -10, 34.8 173. e 130, 1s0. -s, j0316+302 14,3 1?2,3 130 14.2 172.3 125,-S. 18.3 177,4 135, 6e. 25, z0316izz 16.4 17S,0 135 16,3 17S,1 140,S. 21.8 iBe,7 116, 163. .20, :0317902 19,3 177,3 11L3 19.1 177,4 12s, 1:: 1S. 26.2 1S2,4 95, 189. 25, :0317122 24,2 179.3 90 23,6 179.2 11S. 36, 2S. 32.5 183.2 75, 66. 25.0318eoz 29,2 1S1.3 70 3L3.5 182.9 ~~: 114. i=. 3~.~ i9~:~ S~, 164. 15,0318122 3?,5 1E14.5 S0 33.0 18S,039.-0. e,0319002 3s,7 lza,4 35 35. S 187,9 3S. 27, e: 0:9 e.e e: -e. e,4872 HOUR FOREChSTERRORSPOSIT U;ND DST U~D9.0 e,e9.0:. -e.0..2 ::: -e . ~:e.e e.e e: -e.e.e g:g e. -e. e:e.e e. -e. e.e.e g.$ ;. -e. e.e.e-e. e.e.e e:e o: -e .e.e e.e ~: -e. ;:e.e e.e-e.e.e e.e e. -e. g.e.e e.e-e.e.e e.e ::e:e.e e.e e. ~~: e.FILL FORECASTSLIRNG ;~-l:R ~;;HR 7a-#RfiVG FORECFST POSIT ERROR29..+vG RIGHT FINGLE ERROR 18, ::. 184: 0:6VG INTENsITY MLIGNITUDE ERROR ie. 3:, e.AVG INTENSITY 81aSe.NUMBER OF FORECASTS 1:’1!’ 9’ eDISTFINCE TRnvELEO 8V TROPICfiL CYCLONE IS 2469, NMTVPHOONS UHILE OVER 3S KTSuRIC 2:-HR 4:3HR 7::HR8: e: e.0,e. e.0,e, e.eeee.e.e.ef+VERflGE SPEED OF TROP1C,9L CYCLONE IS 15, KNOTS262

TROPICAL CYCLONE 30PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 30SfITELLITEFIXE5FIxNO .TIME(z)FIxPOSITIONfiCCRYDVORAKCODECOMMENTSSITEi326:1:111213141s161718;:21222324:227282930313233343536373839::424344::47:;505152535455::585960616263:2E:6869;;727374;2;;;:* :*8384858687888990102.226111107111800li21@@11234612043001204@012060012c1900121@46121200121s10i2i6@0121800121957122100122326130009130300130600139656130900::;;;;1314s913160013193613210013230614@0@01403001403451406ee14e64314@9e@1412w@14144814160014180014191414210e142247t5e0001503001506001506131509001511271512001514271516001518001S18531s22261600L301603L3016032316@55216@600lGe9@0160925;:;;::1614271616e@161800161832162100162206170e0e17e300i7e31217e53e17e6001709ee17e9e517120017141617160017180017181ii72ie017214618e@eo;;::::186S5.@91808451814e518212516.6S 174.9E17.5S 172.8E14.7S 171.8E14.5S 171.7E1S.1S 179>8E13,9S 170,6E14.7S 169.SE1s.3s i69.e14.9S 168.2 E14.9S 169.2E15.es 168.lE14.8S 167.lE14.7S 167,6E14.7S 167.2E14.SS 166.7E14.6S 166.4E14.0S 166.SE14.2S 165.9E13.7S 165.4E13.3s 165.IE13.5s 166.lE13.3S 164.8E12.9S 164.9E12.9S 164.5E13.1S 164.7E13.3S t64.7E13.0S 164.8E13.3S 164.9E12.65 164.7E1?.7S 164,5E12.4S 165.2E12.4S 164.9E12.0S 165.4E12.SS 164.2E11,8S 165,7E11.2s 166.9E12.1S 166.3E12.2s 166.6E12.3S 166.7Eli..9S 166.5E12.2S 167.9E12.0S 167.OE12.2S 167.4E12.4S 167.8E12.45 168.3E12.2S 167.8E12.6S 168.3E12.7S 169.lE12.8S 169.5E1:).1S 170.4E13,4S 17CI.5E13.6s 17’3,9E13.7S 171.lE14.1S 172.lE14.3S 172.3E14,9S 172.9E1.1.8S 172.6E15,.2S 173.5E15.1S 173,8E15.7S 174.5E15.7S 174.OE16.2S 174.8EiG.4S 17S,1ElG.8s 175,5E17.4S 175.8E17.8S 176.lE17.9S 176.3E18.4S 176.7E18.6S 176.8E19.3S 177.4E20.5S 178.lE20.8S 177.6E21.5S 178.9E21.5S 178

t10/DR/HRe319J36z03191s2e32ee6ze32ei8z03ale6z032ilsz0322062032zisz::::0:;k33z+e6z032418Z03 Z506Ze325i8ze326e6ze33ei8ze331e6ze33ii8ze40106ze40i 182e4e206ze4e21aze40306z040318zBEST TRF3CK LJFIRN lNG 72 HOUR FoREcfisTERRORSWIND POSITW&,iDPOSIT W;ND D5T W;~DO.e 0,00.0 9.0 e. e.9.0 9.0 :, ::: 6!.POSIT13,7 138.314.1 139.114,2 129,813, s 139,513,6 138,913.3 138,613. S 13S.814. s 13s.915.2 138. S1s.4 137, s15,3 136. S15. e 135, s14.7 134,614,4 133,614,1 132,814. @ 124,014.2 121,115.1 117.615, s 114,515,6 112,415.6 111,215.6 !09.515.4 te7.415.2 104.525 0.e 0.030 @.e 0,040 14, k3 139,750 14,3 140,260 13,7 139,47S 13,6 138.290 13,5 138,510S 14.5 138,9120 15,3 138,6110 15,5 137, s100 15,6 136, S7e is, e 13s. e50 14,6 134.230 14, S 133.52e e.o 0.020 e.o o,e25 e.o o.e25 0.0 o,e25 e.e 0.030 0,0 0.03e 0.e 0.03e e.e e.e25 o,e e.o25 e.e e.fa3Z :40.60,65.90.leO.115.lie.lee.70,4s30e.0,e.0.0.0.0,0,0,0,0,e.e.0.e.0.e.e.e.e.0,0 O.@-0, e,0,’a 0.0 :: -0. 0.0,0 %.0 -0, 0,0.0 O.e 0: -0, 0,0,0 0.e :. -0, 0.0.0 0.0 -0. 0.0.0 e.0 9: -0. 0.0.0 0.0 0, -0, 0.0.0 0.0 -e, 9.0.0 O.e :: e,0.0 e.e e. ::: 0,0.0 0.0 e. -ee.o 0.0 e. -e z:0.9 0.0 SI. -0. e,0.0 Z1. o :: -0.0.0 e.e -0. ::0.0 0.0 :, -a, e,0.0 e.e -e0.0 e.e g: -e. ::e.o 0.0-e.e.o 0.e e: -e. ~:RLL F~F/~/~STSWRNG f~2!HR 7Z;7ROVO FORECFIST POSIT ERROR 20. ie9.flVG RIGHT eNGLE ERROR 8. 68, 13.s. e.avc INTENSITY MfIGNITUDE ERROR 12, 29. L3.I?VG INTENSITY B16s -:: -;:. -14. 0.NUMBER OF FOREC/!STS 12 9 0DISTFINCE TRfiVELED BY TROPIC4L CYCLONE IS 2306. N1’1AVERI?GE SPEED OF TROPICfiL CYCLONE IS 8, KNOTSTROPICAL CYCLONE 31PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO. 31SATELLITEFIXESFIXNO.TIME(z)FIXPOSITIONACCR’+DVORfiK CODE COMMENTSSITE12.5S 139.3E13.2S 138.9E13.SS 138.8E13.6S 137.2E13.7S 138.OE13.7S 139.OE13.8S 139,SE14.1S 138.8E14

* 6061626364::676869;:7273;:76$:79::828384::8788* ~;* 92x 9394x 9596:;:;?le2103104105*106107xl@8109110Xlll1121131141151161’5.4S 137,2E15.7S 137,6E15.5S 137.9E15.5S 137.SE15.5s 137.2E1S.SS 137,5E1S.6S 137,0E1S.7S 136,9E15.4S 136,4E1S.2S 13G.IE15.4S 136,0E15.2S 13S.8E1S.1S 135,4E1S.0S 135.5E14,9S 133,7E14.8S 134.6E14.4S 134,9E14.3S 134.5E15,0S 134.2E15,4S 134,8E14.5S 134,2E14.8S 134,2E14.5S 134.lE14.5S 133.5E14.5S 133.7E14.4S 133.3E14.1S i33.4E14.1S 133.OE13.4S 121.8E13.3S 121.5E14.8S 117,7E14.9S llS.7E15.8S 113.lE16,4S 112,9E1S.0S 113,2E16.7S 112.3E14,7S 113.OE16.2S 111,7ElS.eS 112.6E15,2S 112.2E14.9S 112.2E14.8S 112.2E1S,8S li2.eE1S.2Sl~,ss11O.5E~~o.e~15,6S 11O.2E18.2S 112.@E15.9S 110.4E19.2S 112.OE16.4S 11O.3E15.SS 110.OE15.9S 11O.1E15.0S 109.3E15.3s 108.8E15.7s 108.9E15.2S 104.9E14.7S 103.OETS.0/6.O /w1.S/24HRS EYE FIXT6.0/6.0-/D0,S/24t4RSEYE FltiT4.0/4.5 /WO.S/24HRS EVE FIXT4.S/S.S /W1.S/26HRST1.0/l.@TZ,O/2.0+/Dl.0/ZIHRSTi.5/l.5T2.0/2.0T2.0/2.OT1.Sfl,S/SO.0/24HRS/SO.0/24HRsEVEFIXULfIC 15.?S 135.7EULi2C 15.3S 136.OEUL9C 15.8S 134.7EULCCUL&CINITINITULCCULCCULfiCINITULACULCCULACT1.5/i?.0 /b10.5/24HRS ULCCULCCULfiCTI.SI.5 /SO.9/24HRS ULRCTO.S/l,S/Ltl.0f24HRSEXPEXPFIx1S.3S 134,6EOBSOBS ULfiC 1S.SS 114.6EFIXFIX15.3s 111.3EOBS ULCC FIX14.9S 11O.OE19.0s 111.7E18.3S 112,1E19.4S 112.4E1s.2slio.8E15.SS i09,8E16.6S 109,ZELLCCLLCCKGWCPGTwKGWCPGTwPGTWKGIJCPGTwKGL!CPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCKGWCKGWCPGTLJ~GWCKGIJCPGTW~:::PGTUKGWCPGTbJKGWCPGTWPGTUPGTIJPGTwPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTLJPGTldKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTIJKGWCPGTWKG(JCPGTwPGTwPGTLJKGWCPGTUKGWCPGTu:g;:KGWCKGUCPGTUKGLJCKGIJC110/D fi/HR032E12Z0329@0z03291220339002033012Ze33t00z0331122e4’aleOz04011220402002040212Z0403002040312204040ez@40412zNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (X)BEST TR6CK UARNINGSIT 1s9,4149,4148,3147,3146.3145.3144,3143.3142.6141.8149.8139.6138.7137,2135.1WIND2s O,;(3s 13,745 13,655 14,660 13.960 13,955 13.945 13.830 14.020 14,020 15.412s L3,025 O.@25 0,0.ze 0.0)SIT0.0148.7147. ?147.0146.0i44.5144.3143.3142.3140,6140.70.00.09.0O.ew;:D35.4s60.60.6S6s5s2s30.2’ae.c!.0,0.INDICfiTE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE fiND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES,E=zl48 IHOURF ORECI$ST) POSIT Ll:NtERRORSDST IJ;NDe.tl @,@-e.1s.3 144.9 Ss 93. -s1S.7 143. S 4s 123. -10.1s.7 143,7 3s i;~. -le.14.6 142.5 3s13.9 143,3 4e. ie3: 22:14,2 141. S 3s 62, 1s.13. s 140.6 4s 72, 29.14. s 138,1 4s2e.1::: 135.7 S5 1::: 30.k3.6 e. -e. g.0,0 0.0 e. -e0.s e.o e.e:O.e 6.0 e. :;; :.e.e e.e e.7s!IPOSITe.e e,ee.e e,ee.e e.ee.e e,ee.e e,ee.e e.ile.e e.ee.e 0.0e.e e.ee.e e.ee,e e.ee.e e.ee.e e.e0,0 e.ee.e e.oI?LL FORECIISTSWRNG 2~;HR 4~;~R 72;HROVG FORECF3ST POSIT ERROR3’a&VG RIGHT fINGLE ERROR 16. 34: :g cl:RVG INTENSITY M/lGNITUDE ERROR s. 11.0,(+VG ZNTENSITV BI(+S1;. 9:e.NUM8ER OF FORECtiSTS 1:”9eTVPHOONS IJHILE OVER 35 KTSLIRiXG 2.4:HR 4::HR 7:i?HRe.0. e.e.e. 0.::e.:. e. e.e e eDISTONCE TRAVELED BY TROPICfiL CVCLONE IS 93S NMA’VERfiGE SPEED OF’ TROPICflL CYCLONE IS 6. KNOTSTROPIC(+L C%’CLONE 32PFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 32SATELLITEFIXESFIX TIME FIXNO . (z) POSITION fICCR’f DVORIIK CODE;271800 12.4S lSI.4E PCN 6272100 13.0S lS1.SE PCN 6T1.0/l.e3 Tl,O/1.e4 280109 12.9S PCN 5 T2.@/2.0280000 13,8S 151.5E1S0,9EPCN 6S 280300 14.0S 151.7E PCN 66 28060@ 11.3S 1S2.6E PCN 67 280822 12.9S 150.OE PCN 68 280900 11..9S 152.4E PCN 6* 9 281200 12.4S 152.OE PCN 6COMMENTSINIT OBS ULCC FIXINITINITULCCULCCULCCOBSOBSFIXFIXFIXSITEPGTL!PGTwPGTwKGUCPGTWPGTwKGWCPGTuPGTU265

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flLL FORECeSTSIJRt4G ~;;:R ~~;URQVG FoREC*ST POSIT ERROR 3.2.6VG R IGH1 aNCLE ERRoR2:; 119, 243,Avci INTENSITY MAGNITIJGE ERROR1s. .24.AVC XNTENsl TY BI&S;:. ;:. 2,Null#ER OF FORE C6STS 9DISTANCE TReVELED BV TROp Ic6L CYCLONE IStlvERflGE SPEED OF TRoPICRL CYCLONE 1S1769. NM9, KNOTS72;uRe.0.0.@3S KTS7~1HR0.0.0.0TROPICfiL C’fCLONE 33SFIX POSITIONS FOR CYCLONE NO, 33S6TELLITEFIXESTIIIE(z)FIXPOSITIONAcCR’fDVOR9K CODE COMMENTSSITE100s12190857101753102151ll@233110452llle3711103811133211173311214012021212061312102612102712131112171212213013015113055313101s1310161314311316521321191403111405331410@41410051414091418131421081502501S06541509541509541S1348151753160228160633161125161733170613171854172218180327i8e73418110318142618183319071411.4s11.4s12.1s11.6s11.6S11.7s12.1s12.ss12.ssi3.4s13.7s14.0514.ss1s.1s15.es15.4s15.6S16.4S16.7s17.0S17’.2s17.3s17.7s17.7s18. 1S18.2s18.5s18.9S19.0S18.8s18.8s18.8s18,2S17.9s1?.ss18.7S17.ss17.7s17.3s17.0S16.9S16.5S1s.8s15.1s14.4s14.6S14.8S15.2St5.7s16.4S1?.9s73.2E72, 2E72,1E72.OE72. 2E70. 7E69. 9E69.8E68.9E69.sE69.lE68. 9E68. 4E67. 4E67. 4E67.lE66. 6E66. 3E65. 2E64. 8E64.lE63. 8E63. 7E63, 4E62. 9E63. 5E63. SE63.4E::.::63: 8E64.2E64.SE64.4E64. OE63.5E~;. ;:60: 5ES8 . 9ES8 . 7ES9 . 2ES6.lES4 . OE53. 9ES2 OES1 .6ESO.4E50. 3E50, 2ES1,6EPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6;:; :PCN 2PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2PCN 6PCN 2PCN 2::; gPCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 2PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 3PCN 3PCN 4PCN 3PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN SPCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN ST1.@fl.0Tl,5/1.5T2,S/2.ST2.S/2.ST3.0/3.0T3.S~3.ST4.0/4,0T3,S/3.ST5.O/5.0TS,5/5,5T5.0/5.9T6.0z6,0T6.0/6,0T5.S/S.ST4.S/S.ST4,2!/S.0T4.5/4.sT2.0/3.0T2.0/3,13T1.0/2.0T2.S/2.5T1.5/l.5RD1.5/2SHRS/D1.S/24HRS/D1.0/24HRs/Dl,S/25HRS/DO,S/24HRS/D1.5/24HRS/D1.S/24HRS/D1.5/24HRs/D1.9/24HRs/DO.5/24HRS/Dl,O/24HRS/W1.S/24HRS/W2,t3/24HRS/Wl,5/24HRS/W2.S/24HRS/W2.0/24HRS/111.@/23HRs/Dk3,5INIT 09S UL9C 11,7S 1374.2EINIT 0B5INIT OBS ULFIC 12.0S t171.7EUL12C 11.5S 07 .SEEYEE’fEEVEEYEFIXFIXFIxFIxEYE DIA 12EYE DIA 12E’fE FIXEVE FIXEYE FIXEYE FIXEYE FIxEYE DIA 15EYE DIA 1SULflC 18.9SULRC 19,1SULfiC 18.6SULAC 18.4SULAC 18.1sULRC1?.4SEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCCINIT OBSULQC 13.9SNMNMNMNM OPN SW063, 7E064.9E064.3E064. 7E064. SE064. 6EeS4. 4EKGIJcFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWC::;:KGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCKGWCKGL!CFJDGKGWCKGIAICKGWCKGIJcKGWCKGWCFJDGKGWCKGWCKGWCKG(JCKGWCKGIJCKGUCKGwCKGUCKGWCKGUCKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIJCNOTICE - THE QSTERISKS (x)INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTflTIVE AND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES,ITROPICflL CYCLONE 34sBEST TRfiCK DATAIBEST TROCK wfiRMING24 HOUR FORECAST48 HOUR FOREC&ST ?2 HOUR FORECf4STERRoRSERRORSERRORSERRORSMO/OWHR POSIT W“IND POSIT WIND _tI:T WJ~D POSIT W~ND DST lJ~:O POSIT W~ND _~ST LJ~ND POSIT IJ;ND -IST iJ&iDf+41106Z 10.5 13S,8 30 0.@ O,e0.00,9 0.0 0.0 k3::e4ii18z 10.5 134.’G 35 10.5 133.7 3~: 18. 0. Il. @ 12::: ::: ii;: 5, 12.5 125.2 ?e, 280: 35. 0. -e: 0:041 Z136Z 11.0 13,?.5 45 10.8 132,6 4s 13, 0. 11. s 16!9,788. 1s. 1::: 126,0 6;: 183, 3:; ::: 0.0 e, -0. e.0412i8Z 12!.0 131.3 4S 11.8 13@. g 55, 26, 10. 14.1 128,1 6S. lel. 3@.0.0 -0. 0.0 0.0 g. -0. :,0413e6z 12, B i3e.4 40 13.2 130.1 45, 30, 5. 1::: 12;:; 4:. 115. 10. 0.0 0.0 e. -0. ‘a: ::: e.e -0.041318Z 13,8 129.8 35 14.8 129.9 4s 60, ie.-e. 0. 0,0 0.0 e, -0.0.0 e: -0, ::@41406Z 14.1 129,0 30 14. @ 129.5 30. 30. e. 0.0 0,0 e: -e. e. 0.0 0.0 e. -o. e, 0.0 0.0 e. -0.f4LL FORECASTSWRg~ ~j-fHR ~~;HR 72;HRQVG FORE Cfi ST POSIT ERROR6VG RIGHT FINGLE ERROR 18: 94.&VG INTENSITV IIQGNI’TUDE ERROR 4, 15, 3:: ::AVG INTENSITY BII?S 4, 1:. 3:. 0.NUMBER OF FORECfISTS 6 @DIST6NCE TRflVELED 8V TROPICFIL CVCLOflE 1S 4s3. NM3S KTS?~~HR0.0.0,0evERhGE SPEED DF TROPICilL CVCLONE IS 7. KNOTS267

vTROPIC(4L CYCLONE 34SFIX POSITIONS FOR CVCLOWE NO 34SfiTELLITEFIXESFIxPOSITION OCCRV DVORAK CODE COMMENTS SITEPCt4 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6T1.0/i,O INIT 08S PGTWPGTWT1.0/l.0/SL3.0/24HRSTi.S/l.5 INIT OBST1.S1.5T2.0/2.0T2.5/2.5T2.5/2.5/Di.O/21HRS/D1.O/22HRST3.0/3,0 /D1.5/24HRST3.0/3.0-/Dl .O/24HRST3.5z3.5-/DITO.0/0.0TO.0/0.0,0/26HRs/SO.0/18HRSINIT OBS ULAC 10.6S 13S.7EUL9C 10.1S 134.7EINITULCCULCCULCCULCCULCCOBSFIXFIXFIXFIXFIXULCC FIXULRC 14.9S 130.8EULCC 14.4S 1Z9.8EULCCFIXULCC 1S,SS 129.8EINIT OBS EXP LLCCEXP LLCCPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTWPGTUPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTLIKGWCPGTIJPGTwKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTIJPGTWKG(JCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTwPGTWKGLJCPGTWKGWCPGTwKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTIJPGTuKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWPGTIJReDfiRFIXES1rlME[z)FIXPOSITIONRFIDAREVE EYE RADOB-CODEoCCRY SHI+PE DI+lM IWJRR TDDFF COMMENTSRAD&R SITEPOSITION UIIO NO ,121200i2140@~22300I 39200130400L30s0e13100013140011.8S 13S.9E11.6S 13i.7E12. ss 13’e.4E1.2.6S 130,4E12.7S 130,9E12.8S 130..2E13.2S 129.8E13. SS 12.9.8ELfiNDLRNDLflNDL14NDLF4NDLflNDLFINDLeND4e//e 424084///0 6208745150 526135///2 523044//32 5241245/// 7129440/// 6211045//e 7e7e0912.4S 130, SE 9412012.4s 13e,8E 9412012.4S 130. SE 9412012.4S 130. sE 9412012,4S 130. sE 9412012,4S i3@. EE 941201=.4s 130. SE 9412012.4S 130. SE 94120SVNOPTIC FIXES *rxm[z)FIxPOSITIONINTENSITYEST IMfiTENEfiRES1DATfi (NM>COMMENTSi4eoee14.0s 129, SEe35029Umo 94111NOTICE - THE 6STERISKS

eLL FORECfi STSWRNG ;;+:R ~;l&HR 72;:ReVG FORECAST POSIT ERROR EO4VG RIGHT F7NGLE ERROR 21. 119. Z3? : 0.4VG INTENSITY MfIGNITUDE ERROR 3. 18. 26. 0,fIVG INTENSITY 816S 2;, e,NUMBER OF FORECfiSTS 1?’ 1:” 0DISTONCE TR6VELED BV TROPICfiL C’fCLONE ISfWERIIGE SPEED OF TROPICALCYCLONE 1S1111, NM7, KNOTST’fPHOONS IJHILE OVER 3S KTSwRi+G ?~~HR 4~~HR 75~HRe. e. e. 0.0. 0. cl. e.0, e, :. e.e o eTROPICAL CYCLONE 3SSFIX POSITIONS FOR CY2LONE NO. 35SATELLITEFIXES;;X TIME(z);:5678::12::15,161718;;212223242s2627282930313233343536373839:?4243444s::48$y5253645sS65?5859606162636465:;686970;;73747s7677787980ai828384858687FIXPOSITION8.8S l@9.3E8.6S i07.2E8.5S 106.9E9.0S 106.3E9.2S 105.7E9.9s lt34.9E9.2S 101.2E8.7S 100.9E8.8S 100.3E8.6S 101.2EE1.os 99. 9E9.0s 99. SE9,0s 99. 4E$),0s 99. 9E9,0s 99, OE9.0s 98. 7E~.~~ 99.6E98.6E6:3s 99. 3ES1.ss 99. 3E9.5S 99.SE1~.~~ 99.6E99. SE1CI:4S 99. 4E10.4s 99. 7E10.2s 99. 3E11.0s 99.lE10.6S 99. SE11.1s 99. SE11.1S 99,9E11.1S 100.6E11.1s 100.8E11.1S 101.3E11.6S l@0n9E11.4S 190.8E11.6S 101.lE11.SS 101.SE11.9S 101.4E12,SS 101.6E12.7S 101.2E12,6S 101.7E13,1S 101.4E13.4S 102.3E14.2S 103.2E14.3S 103,OE14.2S 103.7E14.3S 103.6E14,8S 104.8E14.8S 1c34.3E.14,7S 104.9E1S.3S 1L3S.3E15.7S~~,gs10S.8El@6.@E16.4S 106.2E16.8S 106.9E16.9S 106,9E17.6S 108.@E18.4S 1K38.2E18.6S 109.OE18.7S 109.3E19,0S 108.8E18.7S 109.7E18.8S 109.2E1s),2s 109.9E18.6S 109.4E19.SS 110.3E18.8S 110.SE18.8S 11O,6E18.7S 119.6E18.9S ll@.8E18.8S 11O.9E18.7S ll@.9E18.4S 110.SE1S.7S 11O,9E17.9S liO.SE18.0S 11O.5E1?.7S 110.OE17.8S 110.lE17.8s 11O.5E17.4S 11O.1E17.5S 110.OE17.4S 109.8E17.4S 11O.4E17.4S 11O.4E18.1S 11O.8E17’.7S 112.6E18.6s 111.6EACCR’fPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 5PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6;?; gPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN SPCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 6PCN 3PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 4PCN 6PCN 6PCN 4PCN 4PCN 3PCN 4PCN 6PCN 5DvOIVIKT1.SZI.5T1.S/l.5T2.5/2.5T3.0/3.eT3.0/3.OT3,S/3.S-/DlT2.5/2,5T1.S/l.5T3.S/3,5T4.0/4.eT3.S/3,5T4.0/4.OT3.@/35/23HRST2.S/3.0T2.5/3,@T3.0/4.0T1.S/2.0T1.S/2.ST1.0/l.ST1.0/l.0T1.O/l.0Tl,e/1.0T1.0/l.O/WO.5/24HRS/W@.S/24HRS/W1.0/27HRS/111.0/24HRs/lJl,5/24HRS/I&O.5/24HRS/D1.0/24HRS/SO,O/24HRS/S13,0/24HRSlNITINITINITULCCULfiCULCCULACINITUL6CULfiCULCCULIICULCCULRCINITULACuLfiCUL$ICULACULACULACCOMMENTS08SOBS ULAC 09.3S 101.9EOBS ULCC FIXFIX09.2S 102.1EFIX09.4S 099.SEOBS ULAC 09.ZS 099,SE99.3S 099.2E~7i6S 098.8E09.6S 999.4EFIX10,E!5 e98.7’Ei)Bs11.0S 100.4E11.1S 10B.4E11.3s 101.3E13.1S 100.9E12,6S 1’J1.9E13.4S lV3.iEULCC 1S.1S 105ULGC 16.1S 10SULCC FIXULCC FIXEXP LLCC UL*CEXP LLCC ULFICEXP LLCC ULfAC2EGE7,9S 107.4E9.1S le8.9E9.4S 109.6EEXP LLCC ULAC 20.3S 109.4EEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPEXPLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCLLCCEXP LLCCINIT ORSEXP LLCCEXP LLCCEXP LLCC ULAC 17.SS 111.2EULRC 18.1S i13.8EUL9C 18.4S 114.SESITEPGTuPGTWPGTWPGTwPGTWPGTWK(3WCPGTWPGTWKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTuKGWCPGTWKGwCPGTLJKGWCFJDGPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGUCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTIJKG(JCFJDGKGIJCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTLiKG(JCPGTUKGIJCPGTWPGTWKGWCKGWCKGWCKGIAICPGTWKGUCPGTWKGWCPGTWKGWCPGTIJKGWCPGTUKGIJCPGTWKG(JCPGTWKGUCPGTWKG(.JCPGTWKGwCPGTWKGWCPGTWPGTwPGTLIPGTUKGWCPGTWKGWC.KGWCNOTICE - THE ASTERISKS (Xl INDICATE FIXES UNREPRESENTATIVE (3ND NOT USED FOR BEST TRACK PURPOSES.

APPENDIXDEFINITIONSIISJ?STRACK - A subjectively smothed @ch,versusa precise and very erratic fix-to-fix path,used to represent tropical cyclcne mvemnt.~ - The vertical axis m com of a trcpicalcyclone. Usually determind ky wind, temperature,.snd/orpressure distrtiution.CYCLONE- A clcrwd atmospheric circulat.imrota--tit an area of lcsipressure (countercldcwiaein tie Northern Hemisphere).pml’mRls - Pcsiticn of a bcdy (satellite) inspace as a functicn of time; used for gridding eatel-I.iteimagery. Since ephemeris gridding is hasedsolely m the predicted pxitia of the satellite, itis susceptible to errors fran vehicle pitch, orbitaleccentrici~, erd the &lateness of the earth.EXPLOSIVED~ING - A decrease in the mininmnsea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5IIWhr for 12 hrs m 5.0 IWhr for six hra (All?1971).EX’IRATROPICAL -Atermused in warnings andtrcpical smmriee to irdicate that a cyrlone haalost its “tropical” characteristics. ‘The termimplies tith polaweml displacement fran the trcpicaand the conversion of the cyclcme’s primary energysources fran release of latent heat of cotiensationto baroclinic prccesees. The term carries mimplications as to stiength m size.EYE- A term used to describe the antral areaof a =qical cyclone wham it is more than half surroundedby wll cloud.FtKII- ~ - An interaction in tiichtrooical cvclones within about 700 nm (1296km) ofeaciother- beyin to rotate about one Mother. “Whenintense trcpical cyclones are within about 400 rrn(741km) of each other, they my also begin to moveclc6er to each other.14AXIMUU SUSTAI~ WIm - Highest surface windqwxrl averaged war a one-minuti ~ricrl of time.Peak gusts over water average 20 to 25 percent higherthan sustained winds.RAPID DEEPSNING- A decrease in the minimnnsea-level pressure of a trcpical cyclme of 1.25I&#hr for 24 hrs (ATR 1971).SOWWWWW - The turningof a trcpical cyclcnefran an initial *th tcward the west or northwest toa pea toward the northeast.RIG+TANGLEERK3R - ~e distance &scribed by a~cul=line fran the best track to a forecastposition. (See Figure 4-1).TROPICAL CYCIENE - A non-frontal low pressuresystem of synoptic scale developing over trcpical msubtropical we ters and having a definite organizedcirculation.‘IIK)PICALCYCLCNE AIRCRAFT RECUNNAIS8AIVC!EC13CXWIN?.lt3R- A US21t.K!PACAFrepresentative designatedto levy tropical cvx210ne aircraft weatherrecun&issake r@irasnents of reconnaissance unitawithin a designatti area of the PAC?X and b funct.icmas coordinator between USCIIKPACAF, aircraft wsatherreccnnaiesance units, ati ttxsappropriate typh30r/-hurricane warning center.TROPICAL DEPRESS1ON - A trqkal cyclme inWhich the maximum sustained surface wind (one-minu&mean) is 33 kt (17ldS) or leas..l’FtOPICALDISTUMMKE - A discrete system ofapparently or9enizedconvectico - general lY 100 to300 nm (185to 556 km) in diameter - originating inthe trcpics or subtropics, having a mn-frontalmigratorycharacter, and having maintained itaidentity for 24 hours or more. It may cr may not beassxiati with a detectable perturbation cf the windfield. As such, it is the basic generic designaticmwhich, in successive stages of intensification, maybe classifid aa a tropical depression, tropicalstorm or typhccn (hurricane)~.TROPICALS’N3RM- A trq?ical cyclcne with maxi.mmsustained surface @ (one-minute man) in therange of 34 to 63 kt (17to 32 II#s) inclusive.TROPICAL UPPER-TAO KEPHERIC ‘1’RWQi(TV1’1’~ - Adunimnt climtological system (mPer-level trcwh) .and a daily Syncptic feat-Gre,of ‘he summer seas&n” ‘wer the trcpical worth Atlantic, North Pacific ardSouth Pacific oceans.lYIHCON/HURRl- - A tropical cyclme in whichthe maximum sustained surfaos wind (one-minute man)is 64 kt (33tie.) or greater. west of 180 degreeslongitude tiey are callE13 typhcons ard east of 180degrees they are called hurricanes. Foreigngwernmen ts use these m other terms for trcpicalcyclcnes and may apply different intensity criteria.VH2K)RENtOR - The distane described by astraight line frm the forecast positicn to theposition at verificatim time aa found cm tie besttrack . (See Figure 4-1).wAILcsouD - An cxganizedband of cumuliformclouds immediately surrounding the central area of atrcpical cyclcme. The wall cloud may entirelyenclose m c.mlypartially surrouIY3 the center.SI(WE’IQNI’ ‘IROPICAL CYCLCXJE - A trcpicalCYcl.one ~s “significant” with the i.SSUSI-IIZS of& first ntrnbered &arning ~ the responsible vmminga9encY.SuPERTYPHcctwmRIcANE - A typhtihurricane inwhich the maximum sustained surface wind (one-minuteman) is 130 kt (67#s) or greater.270

APPENDIX ItFOR TROPICAL CYCLONEScolumn 1 column 2 column 3 column .4ANDY ABBY ALEXAGNESBRENDABENBETTYBILLCECILCARMEN CARY CLARADOT DOM DINAHDOYLEELLISELLEN ED ELSIEFAYE FORREST FREDA FABIANGORDON GEORGIA GERALD GAYHOPE HERBERT HOLLY HALIRVING IDA IAN IRMAJUDY JOE JUNE JEFFKEN KIM KELLY KITLOLA LEX LYNN LEEMAc NARGE MAURY MAMIENANCY NORRIS NINA NELSONOWEN ORCHID OGDEN ODESSAPEGGY PERCY PHYLLIS PATROGER RUTH ROY RUBYSARAH SPERRY SUSAN SKIPTIP THELNA THAD TESSVEm VERNON VANESSA VALWAYNE WYNNE WARREN WINONANOTE :Names a?e assigned in rotation, alphabetically. When the lastname (WINONA) has been used, the sequence will begin again with ‘ANDY”.Source: CINCPACINST 3140.1 (series)271

APPENDIXIllREFERENCESAtkimson,G. D., and C. R. Holliday,1977:Tropical@lcce Minimm Sea LevelPressure- MaximumSustainedWind RelatimahiD for the westernNorthPacific.@kmthlyWed’&r — —f Review Vol.105,No. 4, pp. 421-427.Brand,S., 1968: Interactionof BinaryTr@icalCyclonesin the WesternNorth PacificDcean.NWWMSXFAC TechnicalPaperNo. 26-68,25 ~.Brand,S., and C. P. Guard,1978:Extratrcpi=l StoxmEvolution fran TrcpicalCyclmes in the WesternNorthPacific. NA~PSCHFAC TechnicalReFortTR 78-02,20 ~.Chen,L., and W. M. Gray, 1985:GlcbalView of theUpperLevel OutflcwPatternsAssccia~ withTrQical Q&me Intmsity ChangeDuringEGGS.AbnoaphericSciencePaper 39?2,NASA NAG 5-299,Departmentof AtmosphericScience,~loradoStateUniversity,Fort Collins,Colorado,1*PP.DeAngelis,D., 1985:u@er & BangladeshC@me.NarinersWestherLcq, Sunuer1985,Vol. 29,No. 3, pp 141-143.Diercks,J. M., R. C. Weir and M. K. Kopper,1982:ForecastVerificaticnand ReconnaissanceDatafor southernHemispherel’rcpicalCyclmes (July1980 throughJune 1982). NA~JTFClK2i tW1’E82-1, 77 W.~, K., @ C. J. Neumann,1983:On the lW.ativeFbtionof BinaryTrqical Cyclcnes. kmthlyWaatherReview,Vol. 111,pp 945-953.Dunnavan,G. M., 1981:ForecastingIntense TropicalCyclcnes Using 700 * Equivalent PotentialTemperature and Central Sea-Level Pressure.~~JIWC T132HWI’S 81-1, 12 P.Dvorak,V. F., 1984:TrcpicalCycloneIntensityAnalysisUsing SatelliteData. NOAA TechnicalReportNESDIS 11, U.S. Departmmt of Canmerce,NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministration,NationalEarth SatelliteService,Washington,D.C., 20233,46 PP.Gray,W. M., 1979:TrcpicalCyclme Origin,lkwemmtand IntensityCharacteristicsBased on DataCcqx=iting Techniques. NAVmVPREDRXHFACContractorReprt CR 79-06,124 pp.Riehl,H., 1971:Intensityof Recurv-lng Ty@xxls .NAVWAR%WFAC Paper W9. 3-71,11 pp.Sadler,J. C., 1976:TrcpicalCyclme Initiationbythe TrcpicalUpper-TrqosphericTrough.NA~RSCXFAC TechnicalPaperNo. 2-76,103PP.Wirfel,W. P., and S. A. .%rdgatie,1986:ForecastVerificatinand ReccmnaissanceDa& for SouthernHemispherel?rcpicalCyclcnes (July1982 throughJune 1984). NA~JITC l’mH Nurs 86-1,102 ~.272

APPENDIX IVPAST ANNUALTROPICAL CYCLONE-REPORTSCopiesof tkpast AnnualTropicalCyclone#TyphconReportacan be cbtainedi+lrough:Naticnal Technical InformationService5285 Port ROyal RoadSpringfield,Virginia 22161Refer to the followingacquisitionnunberswhen Ord=ing:mACQUISITIONNUMBER1959 m 7861471960 AD 7861481961 AD 7861491962 m 7861281963 m 7862081964 m 7862091965 m 7862101966 m 7858911967 AD 7853441968 m 7852511969 m 7851781970 m 7852521971 AD 7683331972 AD 7683341973 AD 7770931974 AD 0102711975 m A0236011976 m A0384841977 m A0555121978 AD A0709041979 m A0820711980 m A0946681981 AD Al120021982 m A1248601983 m A1378361984 AD A153395273

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UNCLASSIFIED3ECUFil TY-CLASSIFICA~10N OF THIS PAGE1REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGEla, REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATIONUNCLASSIFIED28. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION ,4 UT HOFil TY*i2b. DE CLASSIFICAT IOfQ/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE14~4.PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S)lb. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS3. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY OF REPORTAS IT APPEARS IN THE REPORT/DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUh4BER(S)6a NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION ~b. OFFICE SYMBOLNAVOCEANCOMCEN/JTWC6c. ADDRESS (City, State and ZIP Code)(If ap~licable)COMNAVMAR BOX 17F.P.O. SAN FRANCISCO, CA 96630Sa. NAME OF FUNDING/SPONSORING 8b. OFFICE SYMEOLORGANIZATION (If applicable)NAVOCEANCOMCEN/JTWC&.AODRESS (City. State and ZIP Co&JCOMNAVMAR BOX 17F.P.O. SAN FRANCISCO, CA 966307a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATIONNAVOCEANCOMCEN/JTWC7b, ADDRESS (City, State and ZIP Code)COMNAVMAR BOX 17F.P.O. SAN FRANCISCO, CA 966309. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER10. SOURCE OF FUNOING NOS.PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORK UNITELEMENT NO. NO. NO. NO.11.TIT LE (lnclu& Security Claaei fication)1985 ANNUAL TROPICAL12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S)ANNUAL?3a. TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED16. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION14. OATE OF REPORT (Yr., Mo.. Day) 15. PAGE COUNTFROM JAN85 To DEC85 276’plus i-vii17. COSATI COOES 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on n?uerse if neceesary and identify by b!ock number)FIELD GROUP I SUB. GR. TROPICAL CYCLONES TROPICAL STORMS04 02 TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS TYPHOONS/S UPER TYPHOONS! TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH METEOROLOGICCAL SATELLIT1%9.ABSTRACT (Continue on reuerae if neceseary and identify by block number)ANNUAL PUBLICATION SUMMARI ZING THE TROPI CAL CYCLONE SEASON IN THE WESTERNNORTH PACIFIC , BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA, AND SOUTH PACIFIC ANDSOUTH INDIAN OCEANS . A BEST TRACK IS PROVIDED FOR EACH SIGNIFICANTTROPI CAL CYCLONE. A BRIEF NARRATIVE IS GIVEN FOR ALL TYPHOONS AND SELECTE1TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEAN.ALL RECONNAISSANCE DATA USED TO CONSTRUCT THE BEST TRACKS. ARE PROVIDED.FORECAST VERIFICATION DATA AND STATISTICS FOR THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNINGCENTER (JTWC) ARE SUMMARIZED.20. DISTFll BUTION/AVAI LABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21. ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATIONUNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED ~ SAME AS RPT. ~ DTIC USERS nUNCLASSIFIED22a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b. TELEPHONE NUMBER 122c. OFFICE SYMBOL(Include A ma Code)FRANK H . WELLS 671-344-52401- ṈOCC/JTWCX)FORM 1473,83 APR EDITION OF 1 JAN 73 IS OBSOLETE._JNCLASSIFIED---.,...,-. ,-..--.-,.. — . . .-

UNCLASSIFIEDBLOCK 12 (CONTINUED)TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK DATATROPI CAL CYCLONE FORECASTINGAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCEDYNAMIC TROPI CAL CYCLONE MODELSTYPHOON ANALOG MODELTROPICAL CYCLONE STEERING MODELCLIMATOLOGY/PERSISTENCE TECHNIQUESTROPI CAL CYCLONE FIX DATA