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J.6624-Sunday-Times-June-2015-Report

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<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour &Attitudes<strong>June</strong> <strong>2015</strong>Opinion Poll5 th – 15 th <strong>June</strong> <strong>2015</strong>Prepared forPrepared by Ian McShaneJ.6535J.6179


Technical Appendix2


Technical Appendix●●●●The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 912 eligibleIrish voters aged 18 years +.As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3 percentagepoints at the 95% confidence level.Fieldwork was conducted on an in-home, face-to-face basis over the period 5 th – 15 th<strong>June</strong>, <strong>2015</strong>.The sample was stratified across constituencies at 125 locations in the country withindividuals selected for interview by way of Demographic Quotas (age, gender, socioeconomicstatus) in line with Central Statistics Office (CSO) and market research industrypopulation estimates.3


Technical Appendix●●●The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile ofIrish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates from theCentral Statistics Office (CSO).Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technicaladjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in supportlevels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking variableelection day turnout levels into account.All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are implementedin accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the Association ofIrish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion &Market Research (ESOMAR).4


Charted Summary5


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Government andParty Leader Satisfaction Levels12thFeb2011(f/w:31stJan –12thFeb,2011)24thAug,2011(f/w :16th –24thAug,2011)2ndOct,2011(f/w :20thSept –2ndOct,2011)18thOct,2011(f/w :16th –18thOct,2011)12thDec.2011(f/w :7th-12thDec,2011)20thFeb2012(f/w :15th –20thFeb.2012)17thApr,2012(f/w :11th –17thApr.2012)23rdMay2012(f/w:18th –23rdMay,2012)9thSept.2012(f/w:4th -9thSept2012)13thNov2012(f/w:1st-13thNov2012)21stJan2013(f/w:15th –21 stJan.2013)26 thMar2013(f/w:11 th -26 thMar.2013)24 thJun2013(f/w:11 th –24 th<strong>June</strong>2013)17 thSept2013(f/w10 thSept –17 thSept2013)15 thDec2013(f/w3 rd –15 thDec2013)19 thFeb2014(f/w:11 th –19 thFeb2014)16 thApr2014(f/w:6 th –16 thApr2014)13 thAug2014(f/w:4 th –13 thAug2014)22 ndOct.(f/w:14 th –22 ndOct.2014)21 stDec(f/w:9 th –17 thDec2014)11 thMar(f/w:2 ndMar –11 thMarch<strong>2015</strong>)**11 thMay(f/w:1 st –11 thMay<strong>2015</strong>)**15 th<strong>June</strong>(f/w:5 th –15 th<strong>June</strong><strong>2015</strong>TheGovernment5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24% 26% 22% 25% 24% 24% 35% 31% 28% 27% 29% 29% 35% 30% 28%MicheálMartin43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34% 42% 48% 44% 43% 37% 43% 43% 45% 39% 37% 39% 38% 35% 40%EndaKennyEamonGilmore/Joan Burton40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38% 41% 39% 39% 37% 34% 44% 41% 40% 35% 29% 28% 32% 29% 28%55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34% 29% 26% 29% 26% 26% 32% 31% 37% 45%* 41% 34% 37% 35% 36%Gerry Adams 40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39% 40% 43% 45% 43% 41% 33% 39% 48% 47% 40% 34% 37% 33% 32%Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 33% 37% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32%*Inclusion of Joan Burton as Tánaiste** Face-to-face surveying employedQ.2Q.3Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is runningthe country?Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his/her job as (…….)?6


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party SupportLevels12 thFeb.2011(f/w:31 stJan –12 thFeb,2011)24 thAug,2011(f/w:16 th –24 thAug,2011)2 ndOct,2011(f/w:20 thSept –2 ndOct,2011)18 thOct,2011(f/w:16 th –18 thOct,2011)12 thDec.2011(f/w :7 th -12 thDec,2011)20 thFeb.2012(f/w:15 th –20 thFeb.2012)17thApr,2012(f/w:11 th –17 thApr.2012)23 rdMay2012(f/w:18 th –23 rdMay,2012)9thSept.2012(f/w:4th -9thSept2012)13thNov2012(f/w:1st-13thNov2012)21 stJan2013(f/w:15 th –21 stJan.2013)26 thMar2013(f/w:11 th -26 thMar.2013)24 thJun2013(f/w:11 th –24 th<strong>June</strong>2013)17 thSept2013(f/w10 thSept –17 thSept2013)15 thDec2013(f/w3 rd –15 thDec2013)19 thFeb2014(f/w:11 th –19 thFeb2014)16 thApr2014(f/w:6 th –16 thApr2014)15 thMay2014(f/w:3 rd –15 thMay2014)13 thAug2014(f/w:4 th –13 thAug2014)22 nd 21 stOct. Dec(f/w: (f/w:14 th – 9 th –22 nd 17 thOct. Dec2014) 2014)11 thMar(f/w:2 ndMar –11 thMarch<strong>2015</strong>)*11 thMay(f/w:1 st –11 thMay<strong>2015</strong>)**15 th<strong>June</strong>(f/w:5 th –15 th<strong>June</strong><strong>2015</strong>Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12% 16% 19% 19% 19% 15% 19% 16% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 17%Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 17% 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 18% 20% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19% 15%Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14% 11% 16% 16% 15% 22% 17% 20% 19% 17% 16%Green Party 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1%Independents/Others10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9% 15% 12% 14% 13% 14% 18% 16% 17% 21% 23% 17% 21% 19%Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30% 29% 33% 27% 29% 30% 28% 24% 24% 25% 19% 24% 22% 24% 25% 28%* Face-to-face surveying employedQ.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your firstpreference vote?7


Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note●●●●●Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All theevidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the periodbetween elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland publishtheir raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of voters. Theyalso build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we have reports of howpeople voted in the last general election as well as how they intend to vote in the nextone we can use these data to model the likely level of swing from the last electionresults.We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do notanswer that particular question.Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a forthcomingGeneral Election.This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.9


Party Support Levels(Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)2ndOct,2011(f/w:20thSept –2ndOct,2011)18thOct,2011(f/w:16th –18thOct,2011)12thDec.2011(f/w:7th-12thDec,2011)20thFeb,2012(f/w:15th –20thFeb.2012)17thApr,2012(f/w:11th –17thApr.2012)23rdMay2012(f/w:18th –23rdMay,2012)9thSept.2012(f/w:4th -9thSept2012)13thNov2012(f/w:1st-13thNov2012)21stJan2013(f/w:15th –21stJan.2013)26thMar2013(f/w:11th -26thMar.2013)24 thJun2013(f/w:11 th –24 th<strong>June</strong>2013)17 thSept2013(f/w10 thSept –17 thSept2013)15 thDec2013(f/w3 rd –15 thDec2013)19 thFeb2014(f/w:11 th –19 thFeb2014)16 thApr2014(f/w:6 th –16 thApr2014)15 thMay2014(f/w:3 rd –15 thMay2014)13 thAug2014(f/w:4 th –13 thAug2014)22 ndOct.(f/w:14 th –22 ndOct.2014)21 stDec(f/w:9 th –17 thDec2014)11 thMar(f/w:2 ndMar –11 thMarch<strong>2015</strong>)*11 thMay(f/w:1 st –11 thMay<strong>2015</strong>)*15 th<strong>June</strong>(f/w:5 th –15 th<strong>June</strong><strong>2015</strong>Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 22% 24% 23% 24% 21% 21% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 21%Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 26% 27% 27% 25% 30% 30% 21% 26% 24% 25% 24% 27% 27% 24%Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 7% 7% 11% 11% 9% 9% 7% 14% 9% 5% 9% 8% 9%Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18% 14% 19% 15% 16% 18% 15% 18% 20% 21% 19% 19% 22% 19% 20% 19%Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2%Independents/ Others17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18% 25% 23% 23% 21% 21% 26% 24% 22% 25% 29% 23% 26% 26%* Face-to-face surveying employed●Adjusted figures based on:All who state they would definitely voteWeighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a general electionand who they voted for in the last election, a quarter of the way between stated voting intention and the result ofthe last election.Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in last election.Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preferencevote?10


Support for Introduction of Abortion(f/w: 15 th – 21 st Jan. 2013)(f/w: 4th – 22nd Oct. 2014)(f/w: 5 th – 15 th <strong>June</strong>, <strong>2015</strong>)Where Fatal Foetal AbnormalityPrecludes survivalWhere PregnancyResults from Rape or IncestJan. 2013(950)%Oct 2014(920)%Jun <strong>2015</strong>(912)%Jan. 2013(950)%Oct 2014(920)%Jun <strong>2015</strong>(912)%In favour of80 80 76 74 7670Opposed toDon’t know(Refused)15 174 215 20 198 5 41613(1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)Q.8Q.9Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatalfoetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where thepregnancy results from rape or incest?*11


Support for Introduction of Abortion x DemographicsGender Age Class Region AreaTotal Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins Muns Conn/ Urban Ruralter ter UlsterBase: 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Fatal AbnormalityIn favour 76 76 76 83 81 63 80 76 53 84 75 74 68 79 72Opposed 15 13 16 11 12 22 12 15 27 9 14 18 18 13 17Don’t know 8 9 7 6 6 13 7 8 16 6 10 5 13 7 9Refused 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 5 0 1 3 1 1 2Rape or IncestIn favour 70 72 68 79 77 53 74 70 46 77 71 69 61 72 68Opposed 16 14 18 10 12 28 15 16 25 11 15 20 21 17 16Don’t know 13 13 12 11 10 18 10 13 26 12 14 9 17 11 15Refused 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 3 0 1 2 - 0 1Q.8Q.9Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatalfoetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where thepregnancy results from rape or incest?12


Support for Introduction of Abortion x Party SupportTotalFianna Fail Fine Gael LabourPartyParty SupportGreen Party Sinn Fein Independent/OthersWould notvote/Don’t knowBase: 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241% % % % % % % %Fatal AbnormalityIn favour of 76 71 72 82 75 86 74 76Opposed to 15 19 20 8 16 9 18 11Don’t know 8 8 8 4 - 6 6 12Refused 1 3 - 6 9 - 2 1Rape or incestIn favour of 70 67 63 71 91 83 70 69Opposed to 16 21 18 12 - 13 19 14Don’t know 13 10 19 11 9 4 10 17Refused 1 1 - 6 - - 1 1Q.8Q.9Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatalfoetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where thepregnancy results from rape or incest?13


Commentary14


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll SeriesBackgroundFieldwork for today’s poll was conducted over the period 5 th – 15 th of <strong>June</strong> last. As such,surveying took place just one month after our last poll, the results of which indicated aconsolidation of the Government party’s uplift in support which had originally registered inMarch of this year.The reasonably healthy support levels for both Fine Gael and Labour in May were attributedto a run of good news in the run-up to the survey, including statements by Michael Noonanabout likely tax reductions in the end of year budget, perhaps even stretching to a cut in theUniversal Social Charge.Since then, the socio-political landscape has been a little rockier, with the Governmentaccused in some quarters of deferring any potential fall-out from the Site Serve controversyuntil after the election by way of the establishment of a formal enquiry.There have also been rumblings of industrial unrest in recent weeks with, for example,thousands of Dunnes Stores workers and supporters protesting at Merrion Square lastSaturday, 6 th <strong>June</strong> in support of improved pay and working conditions.Crucially, a series of consumer confidence surveys and associated economic reports pointtowards a clear and persistent divide between urban and rural Ireland in relation to theeconomic recovery, with rural communities in particular still suffering from the consequencesof the recession.15


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll SeriesBackgroundMeanwhile, media commentary throughout the fieldwork period was heavily flavoured withcoverage of the acute possibility of a Greek Euro exit, and the potentially disastrous effectthis could have on an open economy like Ireland’s.All of the above dynamics would suggest an electorate which is increasingly weary of waitingfor the benefits of the economic recovery to reach themselves and their families, at a timewhen all the indications are that we are facing into a further period of global economicuncertainty.Fine Gael and Labour might, of course, have expected an electoral bounce following thepassing of the marriage equality referendum by a significant margin.In reality, both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin managed to garner their share of the limelight inthe hours and days following the referendum result, perhaps best exemplified by the imagesof Micheál Martin and Gerry Adams broadcast nationwide from Dublin Castle as the resultsrolled in.Indeed, the last few weeks have generally been good ones for Fianna Fáil in general. Apartfrom benefitting, at least in part, from the post-referendum feel-good factor, the party was ofcourse successful in the Carlow Kilkenny by-election held on the same day.16


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll SeriesBackgroundThe result of that by-election saw Bobby Aylward of Fianna Fáil capture 28% of the firstpreference vote, taking the seat on the ninth count ahead of Fine Gael’s David Fitzgerald.This win may prove to be more significant in the longer term than it initially appears. It wasthe first by-election win for Fianna Fáil since 1996, and the first time Fianna Fáil gained aseat from Fine Gael since the Donegal-Leitrim by-election exactly 45 years ago.Fianna Fáil will be hoping that this victory will mark a turning point in the party’s fortunes, astime begins to run out prior to the looming General Election.17


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll SeriesParty Support and Leader Satisfaction LevelsIn today’s poll, Government satisfaction has slipped (albeit statistically insignificantly) to28%, bringing it back to the average Government satisfaction rating which prevailedthroughout all of 2014.With two-thirds of the electorate actively dissatisfied with the manner in which theGovernment is running the country, the opposition has still therefore a significant opportunityto maximise its share of the vote come election day.Over the last number of polls, half of all Labour supporters have indicated they are unhappywith the Government’s performance, although this can presumably be attributed in large partto a perception amongst Labour apparatchiks that they are not receiving enough credit forrecent economic improvements.Government dissatisfaction remains highest amongst the blue collar working C2DE socioeconomicgroup, and in areas outside the large cities.A similar pattern pertains when we review Enda Kenny’s personal satisfaction rating asTaoiseach, with his rating registering at an average of just 29% over the last eight months.Leader satisfaction ratings for Joan Burton, Gerry Adams and Eamon Ryan are practicallyidentical to those measured last month.18


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll SeriesParty Support and Leader Satisfaction LevelsMicheál Martin’s standing as leader of Fianna Fáil has, however, improved significantly by fivepercentage points – the only party leader who has registered a significant uplift.Notwithstanding that, Martin’s satisfaction rating of 40% today is merely on a par with hisSummer/Autumn 2014 level – its real significance is that his ongoing slide in popularity hasfinally been arrested.Most encouragingly for the Soldiers of Destiny, however, is the increase in Fianna Fáil partysupport to 21% following 12 months (May 2014 – May <strong>2015</strong>) stuck on an average 18%. 21%brings the party back up to its average support level of March 2013 to April 2014, whenFianna Fáil and Fine Gael were tussling for top spot alongside the Independent bloc.An analysis of those sections of the electorate driving this increase in Fianna Fáil support isrevealing. Specifically, the party’s support has improved particularly so amongst workingclass C2DEs and residents outside the main urban areas. In other words, the disenfranchisednon-urban ordinary worker who continues to suffer despite the promises of better things tocome.In addition to this dynamic, it is a fact that practically all of Fianna Fáil’s improvement isaccounted for by those aged 55 years + - that very constituency which grew up when FiannaFáil was at the height of its populist power, and when its natural level of support stood at inor around 40%.19


<strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll SeriesSupport for Introduction of AbortionFinally, the <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Social issues tracker continues this monthwith an update on levels of support for the introduction of abortion in Ireland under specificcircumstances.Results in this regard are on a par with those of January 2013 and October 2014. Specifically,when the undecideds are excluded, support for abortion where fatal foetal abnormalityprecludes survival currently stands at 84% (83% in 2014 and 84% in 2013), with support forabortion where pregnancy results from rape or incest currently 81% excluding theundecideds (80% in 2014 and 79% in 2013).The proportion of undecideds has, however, increased in relation to both issues, a trendwhich in itself is indicative of marginally more consideration being given to the matter byvoters.Undoubtedly, the final percentage of voters who would support abortion, even in thesespecific circumstances, would reduce from these very high numbers in the event of whatwould undoubtedly be a heated campaign, although both amendments would likely still bepassed.20


Tabular Data


Q1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Satisfied 915 483 432 273 345 297 468 386 61 369 182 213 150 645 27028% 29% 27% 26% 29% 30% 35% 22% 30% 40% 22% 24% 25% 33% 21%Dissatisfied 2,088 1,012 1,076 664 773 651 742 1,211 135 499 592 589 407 1,180 90864% 62% 67% 63% 64% 66% 56% 70% 66% 54% 70% 66% 68% 60% 70%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)251 141 109 123 87 41 109 134 8 52 69 89 41 139 1128% 9% 7% 12% 7% 4% 8% 8% 4% 6% 8% 10% 7% 7% 9%Table 1 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 1


Q1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Satisfied 915 106 380 56 22 41 125 184 878 750 128 23 14 374 352 18928% 19% 76% 41% 60% 8% 21% 20% 32% 33% 24% 11% 6% 32% 31% 20%Dissatisfied 2,088 422 86 67 14 470 455 573 1,744 1,375 369 138 174 730 715 64364% 76% 17% 49% 40% 91% 76% 63% 63% 61% 70% 65% 77% 62% 63% 69%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)251 29 32 14 - 4 19 153 153 119 33 49 38 76 76 998% 5% 6% 10% - 1% 3% 17% 6% 5% 6% 24% 17% 6% 7% 11%Table 1 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 2


Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Satisfied 905 494 410 309 307 288 438 389 78 311 175 219 199 562 34328% 30% 25% 29% 26% 29% 33% 22% 38% 34% 21% 25% 33% 29% 27%Dissatisfied 1,995 967 1,028 544 792 659 736 1,140 119 507 581 551 356 1,191 80461% 59% 64% 51% 66% 67% 56% 66% 58% 55% 69% 62% 60% 61% 62%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)354 175 179 207 106 41 144 202 8 102 87 122 43 211 14311% 11% 11% 19% 9% 4% 11% 12% 4% 11% 10% 14% 7% 11% 11%Table 2 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 3


Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Satisfied 905 87 387 55 18 61 110 187 853 710 143 43 9 327 342 23628% 16% 78% 40% 49% 12% 18% 21% 31% 32% 27% 20% 4% 28% 30% 25%Dissatisfied 1,995 433 80 65 19 440 439 520 1,711 1,364 347 121 133 711 725 56061% 78% 16% 47% 51% 85% 73% 57% 62% 61% 66% 58% 59% 60% 63% 60%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)354 37 32 17 - 14 49 203 210 171 40 46 83 142 76 13511% 7% 6% 13% - 3% 8% 22% 8% 8% 8% 22% 37% 12% 7% 15%Table 2 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 4


Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her job as Tanaiste?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Satisfied 1,171 573 598 433 382 356 548 547 77 368 235 347 220 735 43736% 35% 37% 41% 32% 36% 42% 32% 37% 40% 28% 39% 37% 37% 34%Dissatisfied 1,855 950 905 501 762 591 677 1,064 114 492 546 487 329 1,110 74557% 58% 56% 47% 63% 60% 51% 61% 56% 53% 65% 55% 55% 57% 58%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)228 114 114 125 60 42 93 121 13 60 61 58 48 119 1097% 7% 7% 12% 5% 4% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 6% 8%Table 3 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 5


Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her job as Tanaiste?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,775 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Satisfied 1,171 174 350 97 24 105 177 243 1,096 931 165 52 23 437 381 35336% 31% 70% 71% 67% 20% 30% 27% 39% 41% 31% 25% 10% 37% 33% 38%Dissatisfied 1,855 364 125 22 11 392 387 554 1,510 1,207 303 136 171 645 713 49757% 65% 25% 16% 31% 76% 65% 61% 54% 54% 57% 65% 76% 55% 62% 53%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)228 19 24 18 1 18 34 114 169 107 62 22 31 99 48 817% 3% 5% 13% 2% 3% 6% 12% 6% 5% 12% 10% 14% 8% 4% 9%Table 3 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 6


Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Satisfied 1,314 618 696 450 441 423 499 734 82 353 296 417 248 807 50840% 38% 43% 42% 37% 43% 38% 42% 40% 38% 35% 47% 42% 41% 39%Dissatisfied 1,529 819 710 418 630 481 622 795 112 420 436 362 311 908 62147% 50% 44% 39% 52% 49% 47% 46% 55% 46% 52% 41% 52% 46% 48%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)410 199 211 192 134 84 197 202 11 148 111 113 39 249 16113% 12% 13% 18% 11% 9% 15% 12% 5% 16% 13% 13% 6% 13% 12%Table 4 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 7


Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,775 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Satisfied 1,314 420 219 60 12 136 114 354 1,164 942 222 82 60 462 493 36040% 75% 44% 44% 32% 26% 19% 39% 42% 42% 42% 39% 27% 39% 43% 39%Dissatisfied 1,529 107 208 61 22 348 377 407 1,304 1,047 257 92 114 581 509 43947% 19% 42% 44% 62% 67% 63% 45% 47% 47% 48% 44% 51% 49% 45% 47%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)410 30 72 17 2 31 107 150 307 255 52 36 51 138 140 13213% 5% 14% 12% 6% 6% 18% 17% 11% 11% 10% 17% 23% 12% 12% 14%Table 4 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 8


Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Satisfied 1,038 573 465 357 409 272 386 627 25 317 280 226 215 665 37332% 35% 29% 34% 34% 27% 29% 36% 12% 34% 33% 25% 36% 34% 29%Dissatisfied 1,692 814 878 461 646 584 749 801 142 470 421 475 325 1,009 68352% 50% 54% 44% 54% 59% 57% 46% 69% 51% 50% 53% 54% 51% 53%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)524 249 274 241 150 132 182 303 38 134 142 190 57 290 23416% 15% 17% 23% 12% 13% 14% 18% 19% 15% 17% 21% 10% 15% 18%Table 5 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 9


Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,775 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Satisfied 1,038 172 135 28 5 408 126 163 922 741 181 56 60 411 397 23032% 31% 27% 21% 13% 79% 21% 18% 33% 33% 34% 27% 27% 35% 35% 25%Dissatisfied 1,692 307 269 101 28 68 383 535 1,446 1,166 279 104 113 564 587 54152% 55% 54% 74% 78% 13% 64% 59% 52% 52% 53% 50% 50% 48% 51% 58%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)524 77 95 7 3 39 89 212 407 338 69 50 52 206 158 16016% 14% 19% 5% 9% 8% 15% 23% 15% 15% 13% 24% 23% 17% 14% 17%Table 5 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 10


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Satisfied 1,046 581 465 400 333 313 511 496 39 439 143 276 187 762 28432% 36% 29% 38% 28% 32% 39% 29% 19% 48% 17% 31% 31% 39% 22%Dissatisfied 1,171 618 553 288 506 378 436 638 98 274 372 264 262 636 53636% 38% 34% 27% 42% 38% 33% 37% 48% 30% 44% 30% 44% 32% 42%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)1,036 437 600 372 366 298 371 598 67 207 328 352 149 566 47032% 27% 37% 35% 30% 30% 28% 35% 33% 22% 39% 39% 25% 29% 36%Table 6 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 11


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,775 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Satisfied 1,046 199 183 82 32 120 179 251 924 768 156 57 65 335 349 36132% 36% 37% 60% 89% 23% 30% 28% 33% 34% 30% 27% 29% 28% 31% 39%Dissatisfied 1,171 183 119 19 3 265 260 321 1,012 773 239 76 69 469 446 25636% 33% 24% 14% 9% 51% 43% 35% 36% 34% 45% 36% 31% 40% 39% 27%No opinion (DO NOT READOUT)1,036 175 197 36 1 129 159 339 839 704 135 76 91 376 346 31432% 31% 39% 26% 2% 25% 27% 37% 30% 31% 25% 36% 41% 32% 30% 34%Table 6 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 12


Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Fianna Fail 557 301 256 137 171 249 184 316 58 78 174 159 146 250 30717% 18% 16% 13% 14% 25% 14% 18% 28% 8% 21% 18% 24% 13% 24%Fine Gael 499 263 236 112 223 164 254 192 53 162 92 123 122 319 18015% 16% 15% 11% 18% 17% 19% 11% 26% 18% 11% 14% 20% 16% 14%Labour Party 137 55 82 30 37 71 68 65 4 43 44 39 12 93 444% 3% 5% 3% 3% 7% 5% 4% 2% 5% 5% 4% 2% 5% 3%Green Party 36 14 22 13 4 20 19 17 - 28 3 6 - 36 -1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% - 3% 0% 1% - 2% -Sinn Fein 515 292 223 189 218 108 166 337 11 121 194 96 104 339 17516% 18% 14% 18% 18% 11% 13% 19% 6% 13% 23% 11% 17% 17% 14%Independent / Other 598 286 313 190 226 182 268 301 29 186 131 194 87 377 22218% 17% 19% 18% 19% 18% 20% 17% 14% 20% 16% 22% 15% 19% 17%RENUA 24 9 15 3 15 6 15 9 - 9 9 7 - 16 81% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1%Don’t know 742 351 392 311 264 167 299 394 50 256 143 235 109 421 32123% 21% 24% 29% 22% 17% 23% 23% 25% 28% 17% 26% 18% 21% 25%Would not vote 168 75 94 77 63 28 59 109 - 47 62 41 19 128 405% 5% 6% 7% 5% 3% 4% 6% - 5% 7% 5% 3% 7% 3%Table 7 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 13


Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Fianna Fail 557 557 - - - - - - 516 412 105 13 20 188 161 20717% 100% - - - - - - 19% 18% 20% 6% 9% 16% 14% 22%Fine Gael 499 - 499 - - - - - 485 421 64 5 8 152 210 13715% - 100% - - - - - 17% 19% 12% 3% 4% 13% 18% 15%Labour Party 137 - - 137 - - - - 133 123 10 2 2 80 27 314% - - 100% - - - - 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% 7% 2% 3%Green Party 36 - - - 36 - - - 31 26 5 - 6 17 19 -1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% - 3% 1% 2% -Sinn Fein 515 - - - - 515 - - 468 393 75 33 13 236 159 12016% - - - - 100% - - 17% 18% 14% 16% 6% 20% 14% 13%Independent / Other 598 - - - - - 598 - 548 463 85 26 11 197 226 17618% - - - - - 100% - 20% 21% 16% 12% 5% 17% 20% 19%RENUA 24 - - - - - 24 - 24 20 4 - - 11 11 21% - - - - - 4% - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 0%Don’t know 742 - - - - - - 742 587 406 182 105 32 239 273 23023% - - - - - - 82% 21% 18% 34% 50% 14% 20% 24% 25%Would not vote 168 - - - - - - 168 6 2 4 25 132 72 67 295% - - - - - - 18% 0% 0% 1% 12% 59% 6% 6% 3%Table 7 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 14


Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All voters excludingundecidedTotal Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 2,343 1,211 1,132 672 877 794 960 1,228 154 618 639 616 471 1,415 928Unweighted Total 671 344 327 169 257 245 295 339 37 180 183 179 129 433 238Fianna Fail 557 301 256 137 171 249 184 316 58 78 174 159 146 250 30724% 25% 23% 20% 19% 31% 19% 26% 37% 13% 27% 26% 31% 18% 33%Fine Gael 499 263 236 112 223 164 254 192 53 162 92 123 122 319 18021% 22% 21% 17% 25% 21% 26% 16% 34% 26% 14% 20% 26% 23% 19%Labour Party 137 55 82 30 37 71 68 65 4 43 44 39 12 93 446% 5% 7% 4% 4% 9% 7% 5% 2% 7% 7% 6% 2% 7% 5%Green Party 36 14 22 13 4 20 19 17 - 28 3 6 - 36 -2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 2% 1% - 5% 0% 1% - 3% -Sinn Fein 515 292 223 189 218 108 166 337 11 121 194 96 104 339 17522% 24% 20% 28% 25% 14% 17% 27% 7% 20% 30% 16% 22% 24% 19%Independent / Other 598 286 313 190 226 182 268 301 29 186 131 194 87 377 22226% 24% 28% 28% 26% 23% 28% 25% 19% 30% 21% 31% 19% 27% 24%RENUA 24 9 15 3 15 6 15 9 - 9 9 7 - 16 81% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1%Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Table 8 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 15


Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All voters excludingundecidedTotal Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 2,343 557 499 137 36 515 598 - 2,181 1,837 344 80 61 869 802 671Unweighted Total 671 158 142 42 10 151 168 - 627 532 95 22 18 244 249 178Fianna Fail 557 557 - - - - - - 516 412 105 13 20 188 161 20724% 100% - - - - - - 24% 22% 30% 17% 33% 22% 20% 31%Fine Gael 499 - 499 - - - - - 485 421 64 5 8 152 210 13721% - 100% - - - - - 22% 23% 19% 7% 14% 17% 26% 20%Labour Party 137 - - 137 - - - - 133 123 10 2 2 80 27 316% - - 100% - - - - 6% 7% 3% 2% 4% 9% 3% 5%Green Party 36 - - - 36 - - - 31 26 5 - 6 17 19 -2% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% - 9% 2% 2% -Sinn Fein 515 - - - - 515 - - 468 393 75 33 13 236 159 12022% - - - - 100% - - 21% 21% 22% 42% 22% 27% 20% 18%Independent / Other 598 - - - - - 598 - 548 463 85 26 11 197 226 17626% - - - - - 100% - 25% 25% 25% 33% 18% 23% 28% 26%RENUA 24 - - - - - 24 - 24 20 4 - - 11 11 21% - - - - - 4% - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 0%Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Table 8 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 16


Adjusted Party Support : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All voters excludingundecided : Will definitely voteTotal Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 1,813 913 900 463 705 646 780 926 107 534 483 470 326 1,189 624Unweighted Total 532 268 264 118 209 205 246 259 27 152 145 139 96 361 171Fianna Fail 379 190 190 84 116 178 124 229 27 58 105 108 108 193 18621% 21% 21% 18% 17% 28% 16% 25% 25% 11% 22% 23% 33% 16% 30%Fine Gael 439 228 211 91 196 151 233 158 48 152 94 110 82 290 14824% 25% 23% 20% 28% 23% 30% 17% 45% 28% 20% 23% 25% 24% 24%Labour Party 155 68 88 33 44 79 74 79 2 50 51 39 15 107 489% 7% 10% 7% 6% 12% 9% 9% 2% 9% 11% 8% 5% 9% 8%Green Party 31 17 14 9 5 17 16 15 - 31 - - - 31 -2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% - 6% - - - 3% -Sinn Fein 345 195 150 121 143 81 113 223 9 91 129 67 59 247 9819% 21% 17% 26% 20% 13% 15% 24% 8% 17% 27% 14% 18% 21% 16%Independent / Others 463 216 247 124 200 139 220 222 21 153 103 146 61 320 14326% 24% 27% 27% 28% 22% 28% 24% 20% 29% 21% 31% 19% 27% 23%Table 9 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 17


Adjusted Party Support : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All voters excludingundecided : Will definitely voteTotal Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 1,813 379 439 155 31 345 463 - 1,813 1,813 - - - 684 668 462Unweighted Total 532 123 121 36 7 114 131 - 532 532 - - - 192 207 133Fianna Fail 379 379 - - - - - - 379 379 - - - 129 112 13821% 100% - - - - - - 21% 21% - - - 19% 17% 30%Fine Gael 439 - 439 - - - - - 439 439 - - - 127 208 10324% - 100% - - - - - 24% 24% - - - 19% 31% 22%Labour Party 155 - - 155 - - - - 155 155 - - - 94 30 329% - - 100% - - - - 9% 9% - - - 14% 4% 7%Green Party 31 - - - 31 - - - 31 31 - - - 15 17 -2% - - - 100% - - - 2% 2% - - - 2% 2% -Sinn Fein 345 - - - - 345 - - 345 345 - - - 153 117 7519% - - - - 100% - - 19% 19% - - - 22% 18% 16%Independent / Others 463 - - - - - 463 - 463 463 - - - 166 183 11426% - - - - - 100% - 26% 26% - - - 24% 27% 25%Table 9 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 18


Q8 Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatal foetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324In favour of 2,472 1,242 1,230 875 976 621 1,051 1,313 107 772 631 661 408 1,549 92376% 76% 76% 83% 81% 63% 80% 76% 53% 84% 75% 74% 68% 79% 72%Opposed to 473 219 255 113 141 219 152 266 55 87 118 163 105 254 21915% 13% 16% 11% 12% 22% 12% 15% 27% 9% 14% 18% 18% 13% 17%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)263 154 109 59 76 127 96 135 32 59 82 45 78 146 1188% 9% 7% 6% 6% 13% 7% 8% 16% 6% 10% 5% 13% 7% 9%Refused (DO NOT READ OUT) 45 21 24 12 12 21 19 16 10 3 12 23 7 15 301% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 5% 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2%Table 10 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 19


Q8 Would you be in favour or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where a fatal foetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249In favour of 2,472 396 359 112 27 441 446 691 2,126 1,734 392 158 169 900 884 68876% 71% 72% 82% 75% 86% 74% 76% 77% 77% 74% 75% 75% 76% 77% 74%Opposed to 473 104 100 12 6 44 108 100 395 327 67 18 49 152 166 15615% 19% 20% 8% 16% 9% 18% 11% 14% 15% 13% 9% 22% 13% 14% 17%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)263 43 40 6 - 30 34 111 220 157 64 32 8 113 87 638% 8% 8% 4% - 6% 6% 12% 8% 7% 12% 15% 3% 10% 8% 7%Refused (DO NOT READ OUT) 45 14 - 8 3 - 11 9 33 26 7 3 - 15 6 241% 3% - 6% 9% - 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 3%Table 10 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 20


Q9 Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the pregnancy results from rape or incest?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324In favour of 2,290 1,183 1,107 842 927 521 976 1,220 94 711 597 615 367 1,413 87770% 72% 68% 79% 77% 53% 74% 70% 46% 77% 71% 69% 61% 72% 68%Opposed to 529 230 299 103 145 281 198 280 51 101 123 177 128 327 20216% 14% 18% 10% 12% 28% 15% 16% 25% 11% 15% 20% 21% 17% 16%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)409 213 196 112 119 178 133 223 53 107 115 84 103 217 19213% 13% 12% 11% 10% 18% 10% 13% 26% 12% 14% 9% 17% 11% 15%Refused (DO NOT READ OUT) 25 11 15 3 14 8 12 8 5 1 8 16 - 7 181% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 2% - 0% 1%Table 11 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 21


Q9 Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland in circumstances where the pregnancy results from rape or incest?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249In favour of 2,290 376 314 98 33 426 418 625 1,950 1,634 317 154 168 846 816 62870% 67% 63% 71% 91% 83% 70% 69% 70% 73% 60% 73% 75% 72% 71% 68%Opposed to 529 118 90 17 - 66 114 124 467 369 98 24 34 173 188 16716% 21% 18% 12% - 13% 19% 14% 17% 16% 18% 12% 15% 15% 16% 18%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)409 58 95 15 3 23 61 154 337 224 113 27 24 155 134 12013% 10% 19% 11% 9% 4% 10% 17% 12% 10% 21% 13% 10% 13% 12% 13%Refused (DO NOT READ OUT) 25 5 - 8 - - 5 7 20 18 2 5 - 6 4 151% 1% - 6% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% - 1% 0% 2%Table 11 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 22


J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Q10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Would definitely vote 2,245 1,142 1,103 591 888 766 982 1,116 146 697 548 613 387 1,442 80369% 70% 68% 56% 74% 77% 75% 64% 72% 76% 65% 69% 65% 73% 62%Would probably vote 530 262 267 266 166 98 209 281 39 128 155 91 155 264 26516% 16% 17% 25% 14% 10% 16% 16% 19% 14% 18% 10% 26% 13% 21%Might/might not vote 210 105 105 103 58 49 59 144 7 21 58 95 36 88 1226% 6% 6% 10% 5% 5% 4% 8% 4% 2% 7% 11% 6% 4% 9%Would probably not vote 72 34 38 42 28 2 20 49 3 23 23 12 14 50 222% 2% 2% 4% 2% 0% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2%Would definitely not vote 154 74 80 50 61 43 32 122 - 52 43 54 6 119 355% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2% 7% - 6% 5% 6% 1% 6% 3%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)44 19 25 9 4 31 16 19 8 - 17 27 - 1 431% 1% 2% 1% 0% 3% 1% 1% 4% - 2% 3% - 0% 3%- ANY Would Vote 2,774 1,404 1,370 857 1,054 864 1,191 1,398 185 825 702 704 542 1,706 1,06985% 86% 85% 81% 87% 87% 90% 81% 91% 90% 83% 79% 91% 87% 83%- ANY Would Not 225 108 118 91 89 45 52 171 3 75 66 65 20 169 577% 7% 7% 9% 7% 5% 4% 10% 2% 8% 8% 7% 3% 9% 4%Mean 4.45 4.46 4.43 4.24 4.49 4.61 4.61 4.30 4.68 4.52 4.38 4.39 4.51 4.46 4.43Standard deviation 1.04 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.05 0.94 0.84 1.18 0.63 1.06 1.08 1.13 0.79 1.10 0.94Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5Table 12 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 23


J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Q10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Would definitely vote 2,245 412 421 123 26 393 463 408 2,245 2,245 - - - 803 867 57469% 74% 84% 90% 70% 76% 77% 45% 81% 100% - - - 68% 76% 62%Would probably vote 530 105 64 10 5 75 85 185 530 - 530 - - 195 144 19016% 19% 13% 7% 14% 15% 14% 20% 19% - 100% - - 17% 13% 20%Might/might not vote 210 13 5 2 - 33 26 130 - - - 210 - 72 32 1066% 2% 1% 1% - 6% 4% 14% - - - 100% - 6% 3% 11%Would probably not vote 72 8 - - - 5 3 57 - - - - 72 25 34 132% 1% - - - 1% 0% 6% - - - - 32% 2% 3% 1%Would definitely not vote 154 13 8 2 6 9 8 108 - - - - 154 70 59 245% 2% 2% 2% 16% 2% 1% 12% - - - - 68% 6% 5% 3%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)44 7 - - - - 13 23 - - - - - 15 6 231% 1% - - - - 2% 3% - - - - - 1% 1% 2%- ANY Would Vote 2,774 516 485 133 31 468 548 593 2,774 2,245 530 - - 998 1,011 76585% 93% 97% 97% 84% 91% 92% 65% 100% 100% 100% - - 85% 89% 82%- ANY Would Not 225 20 8 2 6 13 11 164 - - - - 225 95 93 387% 4% 2% 2% 16% 3% 2% 18% - - - - 100% 8% 8% 4%Mean 4.45 4.63 4.78 4.83 4.24 4.63 4.70 3.82 4.81 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.32 4.41 4.52 4.41Standard deviation 1.04 0.80 0.63 0.63 1.43 0.79 0.70 1.39 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 1.10 1.05 0.94Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 5 5 5Table 12 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 24


Q11 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,290Unweighted Total 912 457 455 260 342 310 393 472 47 255 239 253 165 588 324Fianna Fail 514 269 246 106 157 251 175 275 64 95 139 159 121 258 25616% 16% 15% 10% 13% 25% 13% 16% 31% 10% 16% 18% 20% 13% 20%Fine Gael 830 435 395 174 362 294 386 373 71 302 202 165 160 560 27026% 27% 24% 16% 30% 30% 29% 22% 35% 33% 24% 19% 27% 29% 21%Labour Party 271 135 136 47 117 106 127 140 4 107 66 84 14 195 768% 8% 8% 4% 10% 11% 10% 8% 2% 12% 8% 9% 2% 10% 6%Green Party 22 15 7 3 9 10 11 11 - 22 - - - 22 -1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 2% - - - 1% -Workers Party 9 - 9 4 5 - - 4 5 4 - - 5 4 50% - 1% 0% 0% - - 0% 3% 0% - - 1% 0% 0%Sinn Fein 355 210 146 121 149 85 117 227 11 78 127 72 79 223 13211% 13% 9% 11% 12% 9% 9% 13% 6% 8% 15% 8% 13% 11% 10%Socialist Party 2 - 2 - 2 - - 2 - 2 - - - 2 -0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - 0% - - - 0% -Independent/Other 384 182 202 127 148 109 178 189 16 154 86 71 73 243 14112% 11% 13% 12% 12% 11% 14% 11% 8% 17% 10% 8% 12% 12% 11%People Before Profit Alliance 5 2 4 - 4 2 - 5 - 5 - - - 5 -0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% - 1% - - - 0% -Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 3 1 3 1 - 4 - - - 1 3 - 1 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% - - - 0% 0% - 0% 0%Don’t know 465 198 267 223 154 88 175 262 29 63 131 185 87 174 29214% 12% 17% 21% 13% 9% 13% 15% 14% 7% 16% 21% 15% 9% 23%Did not vote 392 189 203 251 98 43 145 243 4 90 91 154 58 277 11512% 12% 13% 24% 8% 4% 11% 14% 2% 10% 11% 17% 10% 14% 9%Table 13 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 25


Q11 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 931Unweighted Total 912 158 142 42 10 151 168 241 783 637 146 51 67 327 336 249Fianna Fail 514 403 2 3 6 9 16 74 479 405 74 11 24 159 171 18416% 72% 0% 2% 16% 2% 3% 8% 17% 18% 14% 5% 11% 13% 15% 20%Fine Gael 830 47 418 20 7 58 102 178 779 625 154 32 15 346 316 16826% 8% 84% 14% 19% 11% 17% 20% 28% 28% 29% 15% 7% 29% 28% 18%Labour Party 271 12 21 92 - 30 55 61 250 218 32 18 2 95 109 678% 2% 4% 67% - 6% 9% 7% 9% 10% 6% 9% 1% 8% 10% 7%Green Party 22 - - - 17 - 5 - 22 17 5 - - 8 14 -1% - - - 46% - 1% - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% -Workers Party 9 - - - - - 9 - 9 9 - - - 9 - -0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 1% - -Sinn Fein 355 4 - - - 317 23 11 325 285 40 24 6 162 100 9411% 1% - - - 62% 4% 1% 12% 13% 8% 12% 3% 14% 9% 10%Socialist Party 2 - - - - - 2 - 2 - 2 - - - 2 -0% - - - - - 0% - 0% - 0% - - - 0% -Independent/Other 384 14 4 6 - 18 290 53 355 318 38 10 13 114 181 8912% 2% 1% 4% - 4% 48% 6% 13% 14% 7% 5% 6% 10% 16% 10%People Before Profit Alliance 5 - - - - 4 2 - 5 5 - - - - 5 -0% - - - - 1% 0% - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - - - 1 3 -0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 0% 0% -Don’t know 465 45 15 14 3 27 42 320 360 255 106 68 18 166 123 17614% 8% 3% 10% 7% 5% 7% 35% 13% 11% 20% 33% 8% 14% 11% 19%Did not vote 392 32 39 2 5 52 48 214 184 105 79 46 147 122 117 15312% 6% 8% 2% 12% 10% 8% 24% 7% 5% 15% 22% 65% 10% 10% 16%Table 13 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 26


Q11 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Voters Excluding didnot vote (Last Gen Election)Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 2,403 1,252 1,150 592 954 857 1,004 1,227 172 768 625 556 453 1,514 889Unweighted Total 686 352 334 149 271 266 309 338 39 214 177 166 129 457 229Fianna Fail 514 269 246 106 157 251 175 275 64 95 139 159 121 258 25621% 21% 21% 18% 16% 29% 17% 22% 37% 12% 22% 29% 27% 17% 29%Fine Gael 832 435 398 177 362 294 388 373 71 302 202 168 160 560 27235% 35% 35% 30% 38% 34% 39% 30% 41% 39% 32% 30% 35% 37% 31%Labour Party 271 135 136 47 117 106 127 140 4 107 66 84 14 195 7611% 11% 12% 8% 12% 12% 13% 11% 2% 14% 11% 15% 3% 13% 9%Green Party 22 15 7 3 9 10 11 11 - 22 - - - 22 -1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 3% - - - 1% -Workers Party 9 - 9 4 5 - - 4 5 4 - - 5 4 50% - 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 3% 0% - - 1% 0% 1%Sinn Fein 355 210 146 121 149 85 117 227 11 78 127 72 79 223 13215% 17% 13% 20% 16% 10% 12% 19% 7% 10% 20% 13% 17% 15% 15%Socialist Party 2 - 2 - 2 - - 2 - 2 - - - 2 -0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - 0% - - - 0% -Independent/Other 388 185 202 131 148 109 182 189 16 154 90 71 73 243 14416% 15% 18% 22% 16% 13% 18% 15% 9% 20% 14% 13% 16% 16% 16%People Before Profit Alliance 5 2 4 - 4 2 - 5 - 5 - - - 5 -0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% - 1% - - - 0% -Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 3 1 3 1 - 4 - - - 1 3 - 1 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% - - - 0% 1% - 0% 0%Table 14 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 27


Q11 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Base : All Voters Excluding didnot vote (Last Gen Election)Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 2,403 480 447 121 29 436 508 381 2,233 1,888 345 99 61 893 902 608Unweighted Total 686 142 131 38 8 128 142 97 642 546 96 25 16 250 267 169Fianna Fail 514 403 2 3 6 9 16 74 479 405 74 11 24 159 171 18421% 84% 1% 3% 19% 2% 3% 20% 21% 21% 22% 11% 40% 18% 19% 30%Fine Gael 832 47 420 20 7 58 102 178 782 627 154 32 15 346 316 17035% 10% 94% 16% 24% 13% 20% 47% 35% 33% 45% 32% 25% 39% 35% 28%Labour Party 271 12 21 92 - 30 55 61 250 218 32 18 2 95 109 6711% 2% 5% 76% - 7% 11% 16% 11% 12% 9% 19% 4% 11% 12% 11%Green Party 22 - - - 17 - 5 - 22 17 5 - - 8 14 -1% - - - 57% - 1% - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 2% -Workers Party 9 - - - - - 9 - 9 9 - - - 9 - -0% - - - - - 2% - 0% 0% - - - 1% - -Sinn Fein 355 4 - - - 317 23 11 325 285 40 24 6 162 100 9415% 1% - - - 73% 5% 3% 15% 15% 12% 25% 10% 18% 11% 15%Socialist Party 2 - - - - - 2 - 2 - 2 - - - 2 -0% - - - - - 0% - 0% - 1% - - - 0% -Independent/Other 388 14 4 6 - 18 290 57 355 318 38 14 13 114 181 9316% 3% 1% 5% - 4% 57% 15% 16% 17% 11% 14% 22% 13% 20% 15%People Before Profit Alliance 5 - - - - 4 2 - 5 5 - - - - 5 -0% - - - - 1% 0% - 0% 0% - - - - 1% -Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - - - 1 3 -0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 0% 0% -Table 14 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 28


J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Q12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Social Class Region AreaMale Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin LeinsterMunsterConn/UlsterUrbanRuralWeighted Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336Unweighted Total 949 470 479 281 355 313 413 488 48 267 248 265 169 615 334Yes, eligible 3,254 1,636 1,617 1,060 1,205 989 1,318 1,731 204 921 843 892 598 1,964 1,29095% 97% 92% 91% 94% 99% 93% 95% 95% 93% 94% 95% 96% 93% 97%No – not eligible 170 45 125 92 70 8 85 75 11 56 51 42 20 129 405% 3% 7% 8% 5% 1% 6% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 3% 6% 3%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)16 5 12 14 0 2 8 9 - 9 - 2 6 10 60% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% - 1% - 0% 1% 0% 0%Table 15 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 29


J6624 : <strong>Sunday</strong> <strong>Times</strong>/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll <strong>June</strong> Barometer No1 <strong>2015</strong>Q12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Party Support Likelihood ConstituencyFiannaFailFineGaelLabourPartyGreenPartySinnFeinIndependent /OthersDon'tKnow /WouldNotVoteWouldvoteWouldDefvoteWouldProbvoteMight/mightnotWouldnotVote5 Seats 4 Seats 3 SeatsWeighted Total 3,440 563 501 137 41 515 614 1,068 2,785 2,255 530 216 342 1,257 1,217 966Unweighted Total 949 160 143 42 11 151 170 272 786 640 146 53 90 340 351 258Yes, eligible 3,254 557 499 137 36 515 598 911 2,774 2,245 530 210 225 1,181 1,142 93195% 99% 99% 100% 89% 100% 97% 85% 100% 100% 100% 97% 66% 94% 94% 96%No – not eligible 170 6 3 - 5 - 16 141 8 8 - 6 108 72 62 365% 1% 1% - 11% - 3% 13% 0% 0% - 3% 32% 6% 5% 4%Don’t know (DO NOT READOUT)16 - - - - - - 16 2 2 - - 9 5 12 -0% - - - - - - 2% 0% 0% - - 2% 0% 1% -Table 15 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 30


The Questionnaire1


<strong>J.6624</strong>BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES JUNE POLL QUESTIONNAIREGood Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling fromBehaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than10 minutes to complete.The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - allresults will be shown in aggregate form only.ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which theGovernment is running the country?Satisfied 1Dissatisfied 2No opinion 3Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing hisjob as Taoiseach?Satisfied 1Dissatisfied 2No opinion 3Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing herjob as Tanaiste?Satisfied 1Dissatisfied 2No opinion 3Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing hisjob as leader of Fianna Fail?Satisfied 1Dissatisfied 2No opinion 3


Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing hisjob as leader of Sinn Fein?Satisfied 1Dissatisfied 2No opinion 3Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his jobas leader of The Green Party?Satisfied 1Dissatisfied 2No opinion 3Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidatewould you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUTFianna Fail 1Fine Gael 2Labour Party 3Green Party 4Workers Party 5Sinn Fein 6Socialist Party 7Independent 8People Before profit Alliance 9Anti-Austerity Alliance 10RENUA 11Other specify _________________ 12Don’t know 13Would not vote 14


Q.8 Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland incircumstances where a fatal foetal abnormality means the baby cannot survive?In favour of 1Opposed to 2Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT) 3Refused (DO NOT READ OUT) 4Q.9 Would you be in favour of or opposed to the introduction of abortion in Ireland incircumstances where the pregnancy results from rape or incest?In favour of 1Opposed to 2Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT) 3Refused (DO NOT READ OUT) 4Q.10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBETO APPROPRIATE CODEWould definitely vote 1Would probably vote 2Might/might not vote 3Would probably not vote 4Would definitely not vote 5Don’t know 6Q.11 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference votein the last General Election? DO NOT READ OUTFianna Fail 1Fine Gael 2Labour Party 3Green Party 4Workers Party 5Sinn Fein 6Socialist Party 7Independent 8People Before Profit Alliance 9Anti-Austerity Alliance 10Other specify11_________________Don’t know 12Did not vote 13


Q.12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?Yes, eligible 1No – not eligible 2Don’t know 3Q.13 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?Yes 1No 2Don’t know 3

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