EPA is proposing - Petroleum Equipment Institute

Congress. As a result, the methodology EPA has currently evaluated uses a number ofmodels and tools to provide a comprehensive estimate of GHG emissions. We have useda combination of peer reviewed models including Argonne National Laboratory'sGREET model, Texas A&M's Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model(FASOM) and Iowa State University's Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's(FAPRI) international agricultural models as well as the Winrock International databaseto estimate lifecycle GHG emissions estimates. These models are described in moredetail in Section VI and have been used in combination to provide the lifecycle GHGestimates presented in this proposal. However, we recognize other models and sources ofinformation can also be used and these are also discussed in Section VI.Based on the combined use of these models we have estimated the lifecycle GHGemissions for a number of pathways for producing the increased volumes of renewablefuels as mandated by EISA. Section VI of this proposal outlines the approach taken anddescribes the key assumptions and parameters used in this analysis. In addition, thissection highlights the impacts of varying these key inputs on the overall results.We estimate the greater volumes of biofuel mandated by RFS2 will reducelifecycle GHG emissions from transportation by approximately 6.8 billion tons of CO 2equivalent emissions when accounting for all the emissions changes over 100 years andthen discounting this emission stream by 2% per year. This is equivalent to an averageannualized emission rate of 160 million metric tons of CO2-eq. emissions per year overthe entire 100 year modeling time frame if that average annualized emission rate is alsodiscounted at 2% per year. Determining lifecycle GHG emissions values for renewablefuels using a 0% discount rate over 30 years would result in an estimated total reductionof 4.5 billion tons of CO2-eq. over the 30 year period or an average annualized emissionrate reduction of 150 million metric tons of CO2-eq GHG emissions per year. (SeeSection VI.F of this preamble for additional information on how these emissionreductions were calculated).Our analysis of the petroleum consumption impacts took a similar lifecycleapproach. For the year 2022, we estimate that the 36 billion gallons of renewable fuelmandated by these rules will increase renewable fuel usage by approximately 22 billiongallons which will displace about 15 billion gallons of petroleum-based gasoline anddiesel fuel. This represents about 8% of annual oil consumed by the transportation sectorin 2022.2. Economic Impacts and Energy SecurityThe substantially increased volumes of renewable fuel that would be requiredunder RFS2 would produce a variety of different economic impacts. These wouldinclude changes in the cost of gasoline and diesel, a reduction in nationwide expenditureson petroleum imports and the associated increase in energy security, and increases in theprices of agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans.34