EPA is proposing - Petroleum Equipment Institute

Table II.B.4-1 Changes from the 2005 Baseline to the Mississippi River at Grafton, Illinois from the Upper Mississippi River Basin 2005Baseline 2010 2015 2020 2022Average corn 141 150 158 168 171yield(bushels/acre)Nitrogen 1433.5 + 5.5% + 4.7% + 2.5% + 1.8%million lbsPhosphorus 132.4 + 2.8% + 1.7% + 0.98% + 0.8%million lbsSediment 6.4million tons+ 0.5% + 0.3% + 0.2% + 0.1%After evaluating comments on this proposal, if time and resources permit, EPAmay conduct additional water quality analyses using the SWAT model in the UMRB.Potential future analyses could include: 1) determination of the most sensitiveassumptions in the model, 2) water quality impacts from the changes in ethanol volumesbetween the reference case and this proposal, 3) removing corn stover for cellulosicethanol, and 4) a case study of a smaller watershed to evaluate local water quality impactsthat are impossible to ascertain at the scale of the UMRB.EPA also qualitatively examined other water issues, which are also discussed indetail in Section X of this Preamble, and Chapter 6 of the DRIA.5. Agricultural Commodity PricesThe recent increase in food prices, both domestically and internationally, hasraised the issue of whether diverting grains and oilseeds for fuel production is having alarge impact on commodity markets. While we share the concern that food prices haveincreased significantly over the same time period in which renewable fuel production hasincreased, many factors have contributed to recent increases in food prices. As describedby the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Department of Energy (DOE), theCouncil of Economic Advisors (CEA), and others, the recent increase in commodityprices has been influenced by factors as diverse as world economic growth, droughts inAustralia, China and Eastern Europe, increasing oil prices, changes in investmentstrategies, and the declining value of the U.S. dollar. While the increase in renewablefuel production has contributed to the increase in commodity prices, the magnitude of thecontribution of the RFS has most likely been minor, as market conditions have continuedto push renewable fuel use beyond the mandated levels.As the mandated levels of renewable fuels continue to rise in the future, oureconomic modeling suggests that the impact of the RFS2 program on food prices willcontinue to be modest, particularly with the expansion of cellulosic biofuels. Table41