Probabilistic Method for Predicting Ship Collision Damage

applied to each of the four ships. SIMCOL calculates damage penetration, damage length and absorbed energy for each ofthese cases.Table 1. Struck ship principal characteristicsDH150 SH150 DH45 SH45Displacement, MT 151861 152395 47448 47547Length, m 261.0 266.3 190.5 201.2Breadth, m 50.0 50 29.26 27.4Depth, m 25.1 25.1 15.24 14.3Draft, m 16.76 16.76 10.58 10.6Double bottom height, m 3.34 NA 2.1 NADouble hull width, m 3.34 NA 2.438 NATable 2. Stuck ship structural characteristicsDH150 SH150 DH45 SH45Web frame spacing ,mm 5.2 5.2 3.505 3.89Smeared deck thickness, mm 29.4 28.2 27.6 30.5Smeared inner bottom thickness, mm 37.1 NA 27.8 NASmeared bottom thickness, mm 36.6 44.2 34 38.5Smeared stringer thickness, mm 14.9 NA NA NASmeared side shell thickness, mm 26.7 27.8 24.5 23.6Smeared inner side thickness, mm 28.1 NA 20.1 NASmeared long bhd thickness, mm 25.1 24.5 20 33.4Smeared upper web thickness 12.5 12.5 12.7 19Smeared lower web thickness 14.5 16 12.7 19Figure 16 and Figure 17 are the resulting probability density functions for damage penetration and damage length. Table 3lists mean values for scenario variables, damage penetration, and damage length. The damage pdfs for the four struck shipsare quite similar. Unlike the IMO standard pdfs, penetration in these pdfs is not normalized with breadth. The larger struckships must absorb more energy due to their higher inertia, but structural scantlings are also larger so damage penetrations andlengths for the 150k dwt ships are similar to the 45k dwt ships. Comparing the mean values in Table 3, on the average, thesingle hull ships do have larger penetrations and damage lengths than the double hull ships, and the larger ships have largerpenetrations and damage lengths than the smaller ships.3000Number of Cases2500200015001000SH150 - 2522 cases nopenetrationDH150 - 2533 cases nopenetrationSH45 - 2530 cases nopenetrationDH45 - 2545 cases nopenetration50000 5 10 15 20 25Maximum Penetration (m)Figure 16. Damage penetration pdf19