Democratic Breakthroughs and Revolutions in Five Post-Communist ...

26criminal charges led to widespread disillusionment among Orange voters and theirdefection from Yushchenko to Tymoshenko, as clearly seen in the 2006 electionresults. 19Third, Saakashvili has self confidence in his policies and actionsdomestically and abroad; the same is not true of Yushchenko’s dealings with Russia,particularly in the energy sector.Of the five countries with successful democratic breakthroughs andrevolutions, Serbia and Ukraine have many similarities. Presidents Yushchenko andKostunica and former Prime Ministers Tymoshenko and Djindjic represent moderateand radical divisions in the Serb and Ukrainian oppositions. Gordy classifiesKostunica as supporting a ‘soft transition’ while Djindjic backs a ‘hard transition’, 20with Yushchenko and Tymoshenko representing Kostunica and Djindjic respectively.The difference between ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ transition rests upon their attitudes towardsdealing with, and breaking from, the ancien regime.In Serbia, Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and Yushchenko’sOur Ukraine lost popularity after they were elected presidents, a factor that assistedin the return to power of ancien regime parties (i.e. the Radical Party in Serbia, theParty of Regions in Ukraine). President Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine came third in the2006 elections with 13.95 percent, a major decline on its 23.57 percent in the 2002elections. Orange voters had migrated from Our Ukraine to the Tymoshenko blocwhich increased its support from 7.26 percent in 2002 to 22.29, giving it second place.Since the 2006 elections, Our Ukraine has continued to decline in popularity as aconsequence of public reaction to its failed coalition negotiating strategies after the2006 elections. The Tymoshenko bloc’s continued popularity has prevented themarginalisation of Orange Revolution political forces, unlike in Serbia where the