A Case Study on Automotive Battery System Design - Title Page - MIT

SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY:A CASE STUDY ON AUTOMOTIVE BATTERY SYSTEM DESIGNByMatthew J. RenziSubmitted to the System Design and Management Programon May 11, 2012 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Sciencein Engineering and ManagementABSTRACTFlexibility analysis using the Real Options framework is typically utilized on high-levelarchitectural decisions. Using Real Options, a company may develop strategies to mitigatedownside risk for future uncertainties while developing upside opportunities. The MIT-FordAlliance has extended the techniques of flexibility analysis beyond high-level architecture tocore product design decisions in future vehicle electrification.This thesis provides a methodologyfor a real-time support framework for developing novel engineering decisions.Risk is high in new product introduction. For hybrid and electric vehicles, market demand andtechnology forecasts have substantial uncertainty.The uncertainty is anticipated, as the highvoltage battery pack hardware and control system architecture will experience multipleengineering development cycles in the next 20 years. Flexibility in product design couldmitigate future risk due to uncertainty. By understanding the potential iteration of coretechnologies, the engineering team can provide flexibility in battery pack voltage monitoring,thermal control, and support software systems to meet future needs.The methodology used in this thesis has been applied in a Ford-MIT Alliance project. The Fordand MIT teams have valued key items within the core technology subsystems and havedeveloped flexible strategies to allow Ford to capture upside potential while protecting againstdownside risk, with little-to-no extra cost at this early stage of development.A novel voltagemonitoring technique and a unique flexible thermal control strategy have been identified and areunderconsideration by Ford. The flexibility methodology provided motivation and support forunique decisions made during product design by the Ford team.Thesis Supervisor: Qi Van Eikema HommesTitle: Research Associate in the Engineering Systems DivisionThesis Supervisor: Richard de NeufvilleTitle: Professor in the Engineering Systems Division4