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tion, Vance's primary motivation in calling for INFCE wasto prevent the acquisition of peaceful nuclear energy bynonnuclear countries. The Carter administration's subsequentheavy pressure on West Germany to abrogate itsnuclear reactor deal with Brazil had a major impact onJapan as well. Japanese firms postponed indefinitely theirplans to export nuclear reactors to developing countries,even though such exports had been an integral part ofthe knowledge-intensification strategy developed in the1970 long-term plan of MITI's Industrial Structure Council.JAERI President Imai charged at the time:INFCE has provided two years of virtual moratoriumon the rising momentum of the world's nuclear energy.It has forced people to realize that this industryis full of factors that are beyond its commercial orindustrial control so that the rules of the game maybe changed overnight on political, rather than economicor technical grounds; from encouragement ofLight Water Reactor plutonium recycling to its prohibition,for example.Under these circumstances, MITI complained, it hadbecome increasingly difficult to convince the private firmsto make years of investment that could go up in smokebecause of a single move from Washington. JAERI presidentImai added, "It is doubtful under the circumstanceswhether even a renewed promotional drive by powerfulcountries could re-create the necessary self-confidence ofthis industry." Thus, MITI is projecting only a 4-gigawattincrease in nuclear capacity per year until 1995, despitethe potential for adding 6 to 10 gigawatts a year.MITI Versus the EnvironmentalistsInternal sabotage of nuclear power development inJapan has proceeded lockstep with the external. Japan'senvironmentalists launched a crusade against nuclearpower in the late 1960s, soon after the first commercialreactor appeared. The main political support for the antinuclearmovement comes from the Japan Socialist Party(JSP), the opposition to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),which has ruled Japan for the last 30 years. The JSP's 1980election platform officially called for zero economicgrowth, which explains why the party has never won anational election. Yet, like the environmentalists in theUnited States, the JSP has made it difficult for nuclearutilities to find plant sites, dragging out construction timeand costs.To counter the problem, MITI and the Science andTechnology Agency have launched popular educationdrives about nuclear energy and created the Japan AtomicEnergy Relations Organization. But the educational workand the pronuclear political leadership behind it have notalways kept up with the opposition. After the Three MileIsland incident in the United States, former prime ministerand Carter ally Masayoshi Ohira announced an indefinitesuspension of new nuclear plant licensing until safetyinvestigations were completed. It was not until March1981, almost two years later, that Ohira's successor permittedthe licensing of the first new nuclear plants inJapan.Antinuclear demonstrators outside Japan's Ministry ofInternational Trade and Industry in June 1979.However, the Japanese enviromentalists have gainedground in the interim. On March 8, for example, antinuclearcrusaders persuaded the residents of the small,18,000-person town of Kubokawa to vote out of office thelocal mayor who had agreed to locate a nuclear plant inthe town. The chairman of the Japan Atomic IndustrialForum, Kansai Electric's Hiromi Arisawa, commented thatthe recall vote meant, "We have not made adequateefforts to persuade people opposed to atomic power."The Future: A New Atoms for Peace?President Ronald Reagan pledged to his first foreignvisitor, South Korean President Chun Doo Hwan, that theUnited States would henceforth be a "reliable supplier"of nuclear technology and fuel. Thus, when former primeminister Takeo Fukuda met with Reagan in March, herenewed the invitation for U.S.-Japanese cooperation infusion research, an-offer snubbed by President Carter in1978. Foreign Minister Masayoshi Ito subsequently askedSecretary of State Alexander Haig to lift the restrictions onJapan's nuclear development imposed by the previousadministration. However, at a joint press conference withIto, Haig said only that the United States would be more"flexible" on the issue—a stalling gesture.Whether President Reagan responds to Fukuda's proposalfor a new era of Atoms for Peace cooperationaround fusion development, or accepts Secretary Haig'stacit continuation of the Carter adminstration's policy,may well determine, as Shoriki prophesied in 1954, ifnuclear power will be used to "banish wars, liberatehumanity from poverty, and end the causes of cold wars."—Richard KatzAugust 1981 FUSION 43