Opening powerpoint presentation by H.G. Brauch, 21 November 2005

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5.2. Climate Change as a Security IssueGlobal Warming vs. Cooling:Slow-Onset vs. Abrupt Climate ChangeRegional Cooling Science Context: Rahmstorf(PIK) hypothesis: on suddenchange in the Gulf stream, US Nat. Academy of Science:Abrupt Climate Change:Inevitable Surprises (2002) J. Marotzke,Kiel (1990, 2000) Mike Hume: Tyndall Centre Robert Gagosian, President ofWoods Hole Oceanogra-phicInstitute (2004) Pittinger/Gagosian (10/2003)Global WarmingScience Context: 3 IPCCAssessment Reports (1990,1995 & 2001) & ReportsArhennius Hypothesis of1896: burning ofhydrocarbons con-tributes toglobal warningBasis of political agenda settingof Reagan Administ.1988Increase in energy consumptioncontributes to: a)temper ature increase. b) sealevel riseBasis: of UNFCCC & IPCC
5.3. Climate Change and ConflictsHobbesian: http://halfgeek.net/weblog/special/gwreport/Pentagon.htm lGrotian: http://www.bmu.de/files/climges.pdfPeter Schwartz/Doug RandallContract Study for DoD, NetAssessment, Oct. 2003The purpose of this report isto imagine the unthinkable –to push the boundaries ofcurrent research on climatechange so we may betterunderstand the potentialimplications on United Statesnational security.Vantage point: HobbesianNeo-Malthusian pessimist &Cornucopian optimistPentagon, US nationalsecurityHans Günter <strong>Brauch</strong> (AFES)Contract Study for German EnvironmentMinistry, Nov. 2002The purpose is to provide emp.evidence on climate changeand conflicts and to contributeto the national & internationaldebate on climate protection.Contribute to crisis prevention& crisis management & provideadditional supportive argumentsfor precautionary &ambitious climate protectionpolicy.“
Page 1 and 2: 15424 HS: SectorialisingSecurity in
Page 4 and 5: Definition of security: concept, va
Page 6 and 7: 1.1. Defining Security:Science vs.
Page 9 and 10: 1.4. Security Perception:Worldviews
Page 11 and 12: 1.6. Robert Kagan*): Mars vs. Venus
Page 13 and 14: 1.8. Questions for any Security Con
Page 15 and 16: 1.10. New Linkages: 11th EADIInsecu
Page 17 and 18: 2.1. Global Contextual Change &Scie
Page 19 and 20: 2.3.Fall of the Berlin Wall:Change
Page 21 and 22: 2.5. New York 11 September 2001,Mad
Page 23 and 24: 2.7. Two causes forreconceptualisat
Page 25 and 26: 3. Widening, Deepeningand Sectorial
Page 27 and 28: 3.2. Focus: Sectorialising of Secur
Page 29 and 30: 3.4. Four Security Dangers: Threats
Page 31 and 32: 3.6. Ideal type worldviews on secur
Page 33 and 34: 4.1. Global Environmental Change(GE
Page 35 and 36: 4.3. Model: Global Environmental Ch
Page 37 and 38: 4.5. The Pressure (Cause), Effect,
Page 39 and 40: 4.7. International Policy Activitie
Page 41: 5.1. The Causes of GEC as Objects o
Page 45 and 46: 5.5. Desertification as a Cause and
Page 47 and 48: 5.7. Impact (Hazard & Disaster) & S
Page 49 and 50: 5.9. Scientific Goal: Enhancing Kno
Page 51 and 52: 5.11. Extreme Weather Events in 21
Page 53 and 54: 5.12.Diagnosis: Coexistence of Outc
Page 55 and 56: 5.14. Bangladesh: Disaster & Confli
Page 57 and 58: 6.1. Competing Schools andConcepts
Page 59 and 60: 6.3. Three Groups ofHuman Security
Page 61 and 62: 6.5. Human Security Network Members
Page 63 and 64: 6.7. Security vs. Survival dilemma?
Page 65 and 66: 7.1. Several Political Reassessment
Page 67 and 68: 8. Reconceptualising Security at UN
Page 69 and 70: 8.2. SG‘s High-level Panel on Thr
Page 71 and 72: 8.4. SG‘s High-level Panel on Thr
Page 73 and 74: 9.1. European Commission Barroso Go
Page 75 and 76: 9.3. Commission of the European Com
Page 77 and 78: 9.5. EU Commission: Communication:A
Page 79 and 80: 9.7. The European security strategy
Page 81 and 82: 9.9. Barroso: Guiding principles an
Page 83 and 84: 10. Reconceptualising Security:Goal
Page 85 and 86: 10.2. Montreal, Sopron, The Hague,2
Page 87 and 88: 10.4. Hexagon Series on Human andEn
Page 89 and 90: 10.6. Conclusions:Research & Policy
Page 91 and 92: 10.8. Structure of the Seminar (2)T

Opening powerpoint presentation by H.G. Brauch, 21 November 2005

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