BRC Quarterly Trend Analysis - British Retail Consortium

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Jan-111.4%Q4 20091.6%Feb-110.9%Mar-11-0.8%Q1 20101.9%-0.2%Apr-11Q2 20103.6%-0.4%May-11Q3 20102.1%-0.7%Jun-110.3%Jul-11Q4 20100.6%Aug-110.5%Q1 20110.5%Sep-11-3.1%Q2 2011-0.4%Oct-110.6%Nov-11Q3 2011-0.8%0.7%Dec-110.4%Q4 20110.5%Jan-12-0.6%Q1 20120.4%Feb-120.6%Mar-12-1.3%BRC Quarterly Trend Analysiseconomic and job fronts. Overall confidence is stillmuch weaker than a year ago, averaging -31 overthe past six months, compared with -28 in theprevious six months and -26 a year ago.Quarterly change on previous yearGfK Consumer ConfidenceSource: BRC-Bond Pearce REMLabour MarketThe latest unemployment statistics from the Officefor National Statistics (ONS) showed a surprisedrop in the unemployment rate, falling to 8.3% inthe three months to February. The jobless totalfell by 35,000 to 2.65 million, the first quarterly fallsince May 2011. The claimant count rosemarginally by 3,600 to 1.61 million.Fewer shoppers out in the January salescompared with the previous year meant retailerscut back on overtime hours worked by retail staff.However, the number of FTE retail employeesrose in February (0.6%) and March (1.3%) asconditions improved for the sector andsupermarkets continued to open new stores andemploy more people. March’s rise in the numberof FTE retail employees was the strongest sinceJanuary 2011.The overall rise in the employment rate wasdriven by part-time workers, up by 80,000 on thequarter, while the number of full-time workers fellby 27,000 compared with the previous quarter. Asimilar trend was also seen in the RetailEmployment Monitor (REM) which showed theoverall rate was driven by an uptake of part-timeworkers.Total Retail: Annual % growth in retailFTE employmentGrowth in average earnings continued to fallbehind the overall rate of inflation, demonstratingthe continued squeeze on real incomes. In thethree months to February, average earnings roseby just 1.1% for the whole economy while inflationedged up to 3.5% in March, rising three times asfast as wages.The latest data from the REM showed that retailemployment rose by 0.4% in the first quarter of2011 compared with the same period a yearearlier. This is the equivalent of 3,011 more FTEjobs according to our sample.January’s modest decline in the number of fulltimeequivalent staff of 0.6% reflects achallenging start to 2012 and followed news ofdeclining retail sales (like-for-like) and footfallreported earlier in the year.Source: BRC-Bond Pearce REMThe Monitor measured a significant improvementin retailers’ employment intentions during thesecond quarter of 2012. Only 8% of the samplesuggested that they would reduce staffing levelsduring the next three months compared with 29%in the same period a year earlier. One in five ofthe sample suggested that they intend to increasestaffing levels, the highest proportion at this timeof the year since the Monitor started in October2008. While underlying labour market conditionsremain challenging for many, there has been animprovement in sentiment.
BRC Quarterly Trend AnalysisGift Card and VoucherAssociationGrowth but not as we know it for aresilient but restrained vouchermarket in Q1 2012Like-for-like voucher sales grow moreslowly by 3.8% in Q1 2012Growth driven by business-to-businesssales, up by 5.7%; whilst consumer salesgrow marginally by 1.4% Agents sales continue upwards, by 19.5%this quarter; retailer sales remain flatBy Channel, corporate online sales andthird party sales show strongest growth,increasing by 60% and 37.5%respectively; consumer channels remainflatQ1 HighlightsBy category – Agents show strongest growth,whilst Retailer sales remain flatSales of vouchers by Agents continue toshow strong growth with sales up by19.5%. Corporate sales still represent thelion’s share of this type, but consumersales fought back this quarter, makinghealthy gains of 25%.Retailer sales of vouchers remained moreor less flat across both business-tobusinessand consumer sectors, in linewith the performance of the retail marketas a whole. Business to business salesdecreased by just under 1%; whilstconsumer sales lifted by just under 1%.Like-for-like sales of vouchers in theleisure category declined again in Q1 by3.3%, in line with the wider leisurecategory.By voucher type – Good growth for all typesof gift cards offset by sharp fall in papervoucher salesSales of Closed Loop gift cards increaseby 11.8%; as paper gift vouchers fall by12.2%Reported UK GVCA like-for-like voucher sales areup by 3.8% in Q1 2012, a more restrainedperformance compared to the dynamic growth ofprevious quarters. Even given these toughcomparisons, however, it may be the case thatthe voucher market starting to show some signsof wear and tear this quarter. Consumer vouchersales growth is modest, at just 1.4%, with salesthrough stores down by 1.7%. This is against awider retail market that more or less remained flatover the period, only managing a 0.3% increasein retail sales despite a boost from the sunshinein March, as reported by the BRC. Growth in thebusiness-to-business voucher market is still solid,but down to 5.7% year-on-year, indicating thatperhaps businesses are taking a cautiousapproach to the start of the year when it comes toinvesting in employee reward schemes.Closed Loop gift cards made gains of11.8% in Q1, with growth exclusivelycoming from the corporate sector.Consumer sales fell this quarter, year-onyear,by 4.9%, holding back higher growthoverall.The corporate sector continues to drivegrowth in Open Loop gift cards. Salesincreased by 20.5% like-for-like, stronggrowth but not quite at the same levels asin previous quarters.Sales of Paper vouchers declined by12.2% over the period, as corporatespending on this voucher type fell backsharply, down by 19%. Notably consumersales continued to grow by a healthy 15%- one of the few bright spots in theconsumer sector.Restricted Loop cards again recorded themost dynamic growth in Q1, with sales upby 66.7%. The corporate sector provided
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