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Poster Abstracts in Word 29oct - American Museum of Natural History

Poster Abstracts in Word 29oct - American Museum of Natural History

Poster Abstracts in Word 29oct - American Museum of Natural History

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habitat selection by bats and the evaluation <strong>of</strong> pecan pest consumption are key componentsto a comprehensive conservation plan <strong>in</strong> the pecan agroecosystem.HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELING FOR THE SHOREBIRDS OF NEW YORKGUY BROOKSCity University <strong>of</strong> New York, Hunter CollegeNew York, New York USAUndergraduate fourth yearGBrook@Hunter.cuny.eduConservation problem or question: Will it be possible for the NYSDEC to develop an analysistool for eco-system based management <strong>of</strong> the near shore environment with our currentlevel <strong>of</strong> available natural history data and GIS technology?Research methods: I am currently conduct<strong>in</strong>g a literature review <strong>of</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g GIS model<strong>in</strong>gtechniques and natural history data for 68 species <strong>of</strong> birds. This data is to be weighted and<strong>in</strong>corporated <strong>in</strong>to conceptual models built by the project manager, Jason Smith, and myself.The conceptual models will be added as layers on ARCGIS which <strong>in</strong>cludes exist<strong>in</strong>g hazardsand developments.Relevance to conservation: The conservation focus maps (CFMs) we are try<strong>in</strong>g to create willprimarily be used by the state to make regulatory decisions based on which coastal areashave the most biodiversity or sensitivity. By highlight<strong>in</strong>g these areas, the NYSDEC can makebetter <strong>in</strong>formed decisions regard<strong>in</strong>g the cumulative impacts <strong>of</strong> development on our naturalresources.EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AMERICAN REDSTART SURVIVALLEONE M. BROWNStony Brook University, Department <strong>of</strong> Ecology and EvolutionStony Brook, New York USAPh.D. fourth yearlbrown@life.bio.sunysb.eduConservation problem or question: Survival <strong>of</strong> w<strong>in</strong>ter<strong>in</strong>g populations <strong>of</strong> the <strong>American</strong>redstart <strong>in</strong> Jamaica is correlated with precipitation. Multiple models <strong>of</strong> climate predictextensive precipitation decl<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong> the Caribbean over the next 50-100 years. I explore therelationship between precipitation and <strong>American</strong> redstart survival over multiple years <strong>in</strong>different habitat types to predict the effects <strong>of</strong> future precipitation decl<strong>in</strong>es on thesepopulations.Research methods: I am us<strong>in</strong>g a Bayesian model<strong>in</strong>g approach to estimate probabilitydistributions <strong>of</strong> survival parameters and future precipitation scenarios. I <strong>in</strong>corporate knownuncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> projected climate scenarios, and estimate future survival based on a currentlong-term dataset. I use hierarchical models to <strong>in</strong>corporate different survival and captureprobabilities across sexes and habitat types.Relevance to conservation: Understand<strong>in</strong>g the potential fate <strong>of</strong> populations <strong>in</strong> response t<strong>of</strong>uture climate change is an <strong>in</strong>tegral part <strong>of</strong> mak<strong>in</strong>g appropriate management decisionstoday. Model<strong>in</strong>g populations us<strong>in</strong>g a Bayesian approach allows estimation <strong>of</strong> probabilitydistributions for population parameters rather than s<strong>in</strong>gle values, which may yield a morerealistic view <strong>of</strong> potential population responses and how they may vary under differentscenarios.ABYSSAL BENTHIC DIVERSITY PATTERNS IN THE GULF OF MEXICORUSSELL CARVALHOTexas A & M University, OceanographyCollege Station, Texas USAPh.D. fourth year

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