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decreasing percentage of the bread wheat area in theYaqui Valley of Mexico.When specific environments were considered, Table 4shows that more than 80% of the area in MEs 1, 4a,4c, and 5a were planted to varieties with racenonspecificresistance. However, most of the area inMEs 4b (97%) and 3 (72%), and a substantial area inME 2 (34%), accrued to race-specific resistance.Characteristics other than race-nonspecific leaf rustresistance might be more important in MEs 2, 3, and4b. For example, diseases such as septoria leaf blotchor fusarium head scab are important in MEs 2, 3, and4b, and aluminum toxicity in ME 3. These MEs alsoappeared more prone to annual yield and areafluctuations (Figures 2 and 4). Susceptible varietiescomprised the minor proportion in all of the MEs,but nevertheless occupied over 10% of the area inMEs 1 and 5.We assumed that the share of each resistancecategory remained constant throughout theestimated diffusion paths for all CIMMYT-relatedspring bread wheats from 1973 to 2007. We alsoassumed that CIMMYT-related varieties releasedafter 1973 followed cumulative diffusion pathssimilar to those of varieties that began to diffuse in1966 (Figure 3). Together, these assumptions implythat in each year of the diffusion path of thesevarieties, beginning in 1973 in MEs 1 and 5 and laterin other MEs, the area was distributed by resistancetype as shown in Table 4. For the overall area acrossall MEs, it was thus assumed that around 10% wasplanted to susceptible varieties, 10% to varieties witheffective race-specific resistance, and 80% to varietieswith varying levels of race-nonspecific resistance.However, in 1974 the only areas with germplasmexhibiting race-nonspecific resistance were found inMEs 1 and 5. 8 Thereafter, the area planted to varietieswith race-nonspecific resistance increased relativelyrapidly in these environments, since over 80% of asharply rising cumulative adoption rate comprises alarge area. No area was planted to varieties withrace-nonspecific resistance in other MEs until manyyears later (Table 1). In the environments with lowercumulative adoption ceilings and slower diffusion,the resulting areas were considerably smaller. In MEs2, 3, and 4b, the percent area planted to varieties withrace-nonspecific resistance was also assumed smallerthroughout their diffusion paths, based on the areaestimates shown in Table 4.Average annual area in CIMMYT-related springbread wheat. Time series of the average annual areasown to CIMMYT-related spring bread wheat by ME,from 1973 to 2007, were generated following anapproach similar to that used for the average annualyield calculations shown in Figure 2 (i.e., bycombining 1990 CIMMYT Global Wheat ImpactsSurvey data with FAO data obtained from http://faostat.fao.org). The ratio of the 1990 zone-level areato the national area in spring bread wheat wasmultiplied with the FAO national average area from1973 to 1998, and aggregated over zones to obtain thecorresponding series by MEs (Figure 4). Trendregressions were used to project areas to 2007. As forthe yield series, the procedure assumed that the ratioof the ME segments within a country to the nationalarea sown to spring bread wheat did not change overtime. ME 1 clearly accounted for the major proportionof the study area. The average annual area estimatedby this approach increased in most MEs since 1973,but decreased in MEs 4a and 4b. Annual areafluctuations were evident in MEs 3 and 4b.Area (million hectares)40ME1 ME2 ME3 ME4a ME4b ME4c ME530201001973 78 83 88 93 98YearFigure 4. Average annual spring bread wheat area by CIMMYTmega-environment from 1973 to 1998.8We have assumed 1973 as the year of CIMMYT’s deliberate change in breeding strategy to emphasize race-nonspecificleaf rust resistance. This is because the first variety recognized and promoted for race-nonspecific resistance was releasedin this year (Torim 73). However, as outlined in the background to this study, CIMMYT breeders had in fact taken aninterest in selection methods favoring diverse, multigenic resistance before 1973. Most CIMMYT lines bred at that timeprobably already carried race-nonspecific resistance, though they might not have been specifically recognized for thischaracteristic. Our adoption estimates are therefore conservative.21
The real world wheat priceThe real world wheat price, or p tin equations (1) to(3), was used to value the production savings from1973 to 2007 and to estimate the gross benefits.Wheat is the most traded of the world’s three majorcereals and is therefore valued at the world priceequivalent. Most developing country wheatproducers are on average net importers or selfsufficientin the crop, which implies that theopportunity cost of their wheat is the import parityprice. However, it would be exceedingly difficult toestimate accurate reference points reflecting thegeographical distribution of production andconsumption activities for each of the countriesincluded in this study, or to aggregate them into anaverage import parity price by ME. In more completepartial equilibrium models of research impact, pricesare endogenously determined by wheat supply anddemand. In our case, we argued that though thesupply shift avoided through leaf rust resistancebreeding may have been substantial in a number ofwheat-producing countries in the developing world,these changes would in most cases not affect theworld wheat price.The world wheat price based on Hard Red WinterWheat No. 2 was therefore applied in the analysis.This price was used because the USA exports thelargest volume of wheat and hard red winter is itsdominant market class. We applied the base scenarioof a series developed by the International FoodPolicy Research Institute (IFPRI) from United Stateshard red winter wheat prices obtained from theWorld Bank (IFPRI IMPACT, calculated from: WorldBank 2000). The 1998 IFPRI prices were converted to1990 real prices to correspond with the research costseries described in the subsequent section. A longtermdownward trend in the real wheat price wasobserved from 1973 onwards, but the price fluctuatedannually (Figure 5).Research costsCIMMYT’s real research investment from 1967 to1999, expressed in 1990 US$ and estimated for higherand lower cost scenarios, was obtained from Heiseyet al. (2002). Costs were assumed since 1967 to allowa six-year research lag for varieties released in 1973.A five-to six-year research development period for anew wheat variety should be a reasonableassumption in view of CIMMYT’s shuttle breedingprogram, outlined in the background to this study.The cost series by Heisey et al. (2002) was developedon the basis of several assumptions. In all cases, theobjective was to estimate the economic impact ofCIMMYT’s total wheat improvement effort. First, itwas assumed that CIMMYT’s entire budget wasdevoted to genetic improvement of wheat and maize.Though this has been CIMMYT’s primary focus sinceits inception, some research products over the yearsmight not have been confined to crop geneticimprovement only, such as farming systems, naturalresources, and economics research. Second, it wasassumed that the entire Wheat Program staff,including reasearchers involved in plant breeding,pathology, agronomy, physiology, and otherdisciplines, was focused on genetic improvement.This partly reflects the organization of CIMMYT’swheat breeding program.Heisey et al. (2002) considered three approaches tocalculate the research costs, of which we employedthe highest and the lowest. In the higher costscenario, it was assumed that CIMMYT’s entirebudget, including resources invested in otherprograms 9 and administration, could be charged tocrop genetic improvement. CIMMYT’s budget wasallocated between wheat and maize by theproportion that the Wheat Program budgetcomprised of the total budget. The set of figuresPrice (1990 US$/t)60050040030020010001973 78 83 88 93 98 2003 07YearFigure 5. The annual and projected real world wheat pricefrom 1973 to 2007.Source: Adapted from IFPRI IMPACT (calculated from: World Bank 2000)9At the time this study was undertaken, five research programs existed at CIMMYT: Wheat, Maize,Economics, Applied Biotechnology, and Natural Resources.22
Page 1 and 2: E c o n o m i c s P r o g r a m P a
Page 3 and 4: CIMMYT® (www.cimmyt.org) is an int
Page 5 and 6: TablesTable 1. Summary of parameter
Page 8 and 9: The Economic Impact in DevelopingCo
Page 10 and 11: origins or pedigrees are selected f
Page 12 and 13: Most assessments of the returns on
Page 14 and 15: MethodologyIn the capital investmen
Page 16 and 17: likely behavior was predicted based
Page 18 and 19: Table 3. Estimated yield losses fro
Page 20 and 21: esults showed that the annual progr
Page 24 and 25: arising from this assumption may be
Page 26 and 27: Table 6. Discounted gross benefits
Page 28 and 29: our base scenario was minimal (Tabl
Page 30 and 31: esistance. It is conceptually and p
Page 32 and 33: ReferencesAdusei, E.O. 1988. Evalua
Page 34 and 35: Nagarajan, S., and L.M. Joshi. 1985
Page 36 and 37: Appendix ADefinition of CIMMYT mega
Page 38: ISSN: 1405-7735International Maize

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