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UTI A,.. "'AA.LV-TnAI::A 1Q(l1ATooling and Machining ForecastsThe following forecast report was released in July by the National Tooling and Machining Association (NTMA), 9300 LivingstonRoad, FortWashington, MD 20744. 301/248-6200. NTMA is comprises of3,200 contract precision machining, tool, die, mold,and special machine companies throughout the United States. This industry generates sales of$25 billion annually.While several indicators signal that the consumer sector ofthe economy seems to be turning up, capital-goods producingcompanies - including tooling - have seen little improvement asyet. Moreover, significant gains for these companies are probablyabout three months away, even ifthe apparent budding recovery inthe general economy is interrupted by a second decline. A lag ordelay between upturns in the consumer and the capital goodssectors would be quite consistentwith past recoveries duringwhichimprovements in capital-goods orders have lagged the consumersector by one or two quarters.New NTMA orders for tooling and machining during the firsthalfof 1991 appear to be running behind last year's pace by about20 percent. However, we expect that starting around September,the new order rate will quicken, cutting the full year decline moreclosely to the 14 percent forecast previously. We may need to revisecertain of our existing forecasts later, perhaps, by increasing theprojected declines for Special Machines and Tools, Dies, andFixtures sectors. We are not, however, changing any NTMAforecasts at this time. Individual sector forecasts ofnew orders for1991 are: Tools, Dies and Fixtures, down 15%; Molds, off 12%;Aerospace Machining and Fabrication, off 12%; SpecialMachines, down 14%; and Precision Machining, down 15%.TOOLS. DIES, AND FIXTURES250I'"CI"I eft'"lII' I, ,. ',.,'.:!!.!!!'200-15'5050MOLDS........, c"..... ,,.....,....,.........,75 76 77 76 79 80 81 82 63 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91YEARPRECISION MACHINING IExcl Aerospace)300c::J CONSTANT S _ CURRENT.250E.::J CONSTANT I _ CURRENT •250200200,50'50'00'005050o·Ur-~~~75 76 77 76 79 80 61 62 63 84 65 86 87 88 69 90 9'YEARSPECIAL MACHINES75 78 77 78 79 80 81 62 83 84 85 88 87 88 89 90 91YEARAEROSPACE MACHINING AND FABRICATIONNote: Constant S shipments (grey) reflect shipment value aher stripping aw.oy the effects ofinflation. tracing shipments as if there had been no inflation since 1975.In order to deflate current S (black bars), the general price increases for durable goods, as reported by the government, have been used.
Meeting CalendarNOVEMBERICALEO '91 - The Laser Applications ConferenceThe Laser Institute ofAmerica, Nov. 3-8, San Jose, CAContact: 407-380-1553Nontraditional Machining Symposium and Tabletop ExhibitsSME, Nov. 4-7, Orlando, FLContact: 313-271-1500, ext 378DTIC '91Defense Technical Information Center, Nov. 4-8, Alexandria, VAContact: 703-274-3848 or DSN 284-3848Surface Mount Technology Conference and ExpositionIC Management, Nov. 5-8, San Diego, CAContact: 312-271-1500, ext 293AUTOFACf '91 Conference and ExpositionSME and CASNSME, Nov. 10-14, Chicago, ILContact: 313-271-1500, ext 293New Books in Manufacturingcontinued on page 6Artificial Intelligence in Canada, 212 pages, National ResearchCouncil ofCanada, 1991.Business Process Improvement, H. James Harrington. 266 pages,McGraw-Hill, 1991.Making Niche Marketing Work, Robert E. Linneman and John L.Stanton, Jr. 260 pages, McGraw-Hill, 1991.Statistical Process Control and Company-Wide Quality Improvement,Nevin McMillen. 183 pages, IFS Publications, 1991.Surpassing Your Customer's ExpectationsTQM Conference and ExpositionThe second Total Quality Management (fQM) Conferencewas held in Washington DC, July 16-17, 1991. The Societyof Manufacturing Engineers (SME) sponsored the program.The quality of the speakers and their presentations wasexcellent. 300 registrants attended.Washington, DC provided an interesting mix of DoD andindustrial participants at this conference. "TQM Goes to War"was the subject ofthe keynote presented by General Michael J.Dugan, USAF (Ret). John R Veatch of the Navy described"Total Quality Initiatives at a Naval Station." Ron Kurtus,USAF, talked about "TheThree Phases oOmplementingTQMin the Air Force SOl Program." Col. James J. Folz, USAF,covered "Partners in Excellence - The Role ofLabor ManagementRelations in TQM." Ernie Renner, director ofthe Navy'sBest Manufacturing Program discussed "Breaking DownTQMIsolationism: A Means to Cross Company Borders." Both thedefense and civilian industries were well represented. Theplenary session on the second day offered "Quality at FederalExpress - Our People-Service-Profit Philosophy" and "TheCadillac Quality Story."The 1992 conference will be in Washington, DC, onJune 8-9.Anyone interested in presenting a paper should submit anabstract to Peg DuFresne at SME, P.O. Box 930, Dearborn, MI48121-0930.Let theDefense Technical Information Center(OTIC)Stock Reduction in Manufacturing: A Methodology for the SmalUMedium Company, R. H. Hollier and C. Cooke. 152 pages, IFSPublications, 1991.Technology 2001: The Future of Computing and Communications,Derek Leebaert. 392 pages, MIT Press, 1991.Time to Market: Reducing ProductLead Time, Cyril Charney. 270pages. Society ofManufacturing Engineers, 1991.Achieving the Competitive Edge Through Integrated TechnologyManagement, Gerard H. Gaynor. 300 pages, McGraw-Hill, 1991.Forecasting and Management ofTechnology, Alan L. Porter et al.448 pages, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.Forecasting Systems for Operations Management, Stephen A.DeLurgio and Carl D. Bhame. 648 pages, Business One Irwin, 1991.Management ofTechnological Change, Yassin Sankar. 350 pages,John Wiley & Sons, 1991.Solve Your Defense Information PuzzleJoin us at the OTIC '91 Annual Users Training Conference.OTIC's goal for you is to meet the challenges of managingDefense Information, plus find new ways to make the mostof OTIC's products and services.4-8 November 1991Ramada Hotel - Old Town Alexandria901 North Fairfax StreetAlexandria, VAFor more information contact Ms. Kay Grigsby703-274-3848 or DSN 284-3848
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