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Guide to the Markets - JP Morgan Asset Management

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4Q | 2013As of September 30, 2013<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong>ASIA


Table of ContentsREGIONAL AND LOCAL ECONOMYGLOBAL ECONOMYEQUITIESFIXED INCOMEOTHER ASSETS AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR422355158Global Market Strategy TeamDr. David Kelly, CFATai HuiGeoff LewisYoshinori ShigemiGrace Tam, CFAIan HuiBen LukAnthony Tsoidavid.p.kelly@jpmorgan.comtai.c.hui@jpmorgan.comgeoff.r.lewis@jpmorgan.comyoshinori.shigemi@jpmorgan.comgrace.wm.tam@jpmorgan.comian.w.hui@jpmorgan.comben.tw.luk@jpmorgan.comanthony.tsoi@jpmorgan.com2Past performance is no guarantee of comparable future results. For China and Australia distribution, please note thiscommunication is for intended recipients only and is for wholesale clients only in Australia. For details, please refer <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> fulldisclaimer at <strong>the</strong> end. Unless o<strong>the</strong>rwise stated, all data is as of 30 September 2013 or most recently available.


Page Reference3Regional and Local Economy4. Share of Global GDP and Asian Middle Class5. Asia: Inflation6. Asia: Business Cycle7. ASEAN-5: Fundamentals and Valuations8. ASEAN-5: Trade and Competitiveness9. Australia: Economic Snapshot10. China: Economic Snapshot11. China: Cyclical Indica<strong>to</strong>rs12. China: Real Estate13. China: Total Social Financing and Monetary Conditions14. India: Economic Snapshot15. India: Profits and Flows16. Japan: Economic Snapshot17. Japan: Monetary Policy18. Japan: Public Finance19. Japan: Structural Trends20. Korea: Economic Snapshot21. Taiwan: Economic SnapshotGlobal Economy22. Global Growth23. Global Economics and Demographics24. Global Monetary Policy25. The Importance of Exports26. Sovereign Debt Stresses27. United States: Economic Growth and <strong>the</strong> Composition of GDP28. United States: Inflation and Unemployment29. United States: Cyclical Indica<strong>to</strong>rs30. United States: Consumer Finances31. United States: The Fed and <strong>the</strong> Money Supply32. Europe: Economic Snapshot33. Europe: Economic Fundamentals34. Europe: Cyclical Indica<strong>to</strong>rsEquities35. Global and Asia Equity <strong>Markets</strong>: Returns36. Global Equity <strong>Markets</strong>: Valuations37. Global Earnings Expectation and Valuations38. Global Earnings Momentum39. Global Long-term EPS and DPS Growth40. Global Sec<strong>to</strong>rs: Returns41. United States: Source of Earnings, Corporate Profits and Leverage42. United States: S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points43. Europe: Earnings and Valuations44. Japan: TOPIX at Inflection Points45. Asia: Valuation Analysis46. Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>: Share and Composition of GDP and Earnings47. Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>: Returns48. Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>: Index Composition49. Global Dividend Income50. Asia Dividend IncomeFixed Income51. Global Fixed Income: Yields and Returns52. United States: High Yield Bonds53. Asia: Sovereign Debt and Credit <strong>Markets</strong>54. Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> and Asia: Sovereign Debt55. Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> and Asia: Currencies56. Currencies: Real Effective Exchange Rates57. Currencies: Valuation and External VulnerabilityO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s and Inves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour58. <strong>Asset</strong> Class Returns59. <strong>Asset</strong> Class Correlations60. Interest Rates and Equities Correlation61. United States: Treasury Yields and S&P 50062. Rate Rise Impact on Different Income <strong>Asset</strong> Classes63. REITs and Convertibles64. Commodities: Returns65. Commodities: Energy66. Commodities: Oil Demand67. Commodities: Gold68. Global Inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ <strong>Asset</strong> Allocation by Region69. Real Return on Cash and Retirement Trends in Asia70. Fund Flows


Share of Global GDP and Asian Middle ClassShare of Global Nominal GDPRegional and LocalEconomy100%80%60%40%20%$22,196 $32,331 $63,468 $71,707 $97,599$World Nominal GDP(USD Billions)USEuro Area and UKO<strong>the</strong>r DMChinaAsia ex-China and JapanO<strong>the</strong>r EM0%1990 2000 2010 2012 2018 (F)Share of Spending by <strong>the</strong> Global Middle ClassComposition of <strong>the</strong> Asian Middle Class (2010)60%40%20%0%26%17%10%38%29%20%2009202020307% 7% 6%North America Europe Central and SouthAmerica59%42%23%Asia PacificSingapore 0.8% Thailand 3.2% Taiwan 3.9%Philippines 2.2%Malaysia 2.1%Indonesia 5.6%Korea 8.1%India 11.4%Hong Kong 1.2%China61.4%4Source: IMF, “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries” by Homi Kharas - OECD paper, CLSA “Mr. & Mrs. Asia – Spring 2011,” WorldBank, Euromoni<strong>to</strong>r, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top) Nominal gross domestic product data are based on national currency converted <strong>to</strong> US dollars using market exchange rates (yearly average).Forecasts are provided by IMF, based on <strong>the</strong> April 2013 World Economic Outlook.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) Middle class is defined as households with daily expenditures between USD10 and USD100 per person in PPP terms (2005 USD).(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Right) Middle class is defined as households with annual per capita disposable income of USD3,000 or above.Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Asia: InflationRegional and LocalEconomyMonthly Inflation TrendYear-over-year % changeRising inflation Unchanged Falling inflationCountry 11/2012 12/2012 1/2013 2/2013 3/2013 4/2013 5/2013 6/2013 7/2013 8/2013Central BankTarget/ForecastChina 2.0 2.5 2.0 3.2 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.5Hong Kong 3.7 3.7 3.0 4.4 3.6 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.9 4.5 4.5India 7.2 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.0 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.0-7.0Indonesia 4.3 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.9 8.6 8.8 3.5-5.5Japan -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.7 0.9 2.0Korea 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.3 2.5-3.5Malaysia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0-3.0Philippines 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.1 3.0-5.0Singapore 3.6 4.3 3.6 4.9 3.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 3.5-4.5Taiwan 1.6 1.6 1.2 3.0 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.8 1.4Thailand 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 0.5-3.0*5Source: J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, National Bureau of Statistics (China), Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong), Office ofEconomic Adviser (India), Bank Indonesia, Statistics Bureau and <strong>the</strong> Direc<strong>to</strong>r-General for Policy Planning of Japan, Statistics Korea, Department of Statistics Malaysia,Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), National Statistical Coordination Board (Philippines), Department of Statistics Singapore, Direc<strong>to</strong>rate-General of Budget, Accountingand Statistics (Taiwan), Bank of Thailand, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”All data for Headline CPI unless o<strong>the</strong>rwise stated. India: Data is for WPI.* Thailand’s central bank targets core CPI, which excludes raw food and energy.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Asia: Business CycleRegional and LocalEconomyAsia Export Growth and US ISM Manufacturing PMIYear-over-year % change60%40%20%0%-20%Asia Exports*US Manufacturing PMI-40%'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Index6560555045403530US PMI and Equity PerformanceUS ISM manu. new orders behaviour and subsequent 3-mth market perf.**Below 50 and fallingAbove 50 and fallingMSCI AC WorldS&P 500MSCI JapanMSCI AC Asia ex-JapanMSCI EMGlobal Manufacturing PMI trendsIndex6055ChinaEuro AreaUSJapanBelow 50 and rising50Above 50 and rising4540'11 '12 '13-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%6Source: Institute of Supply <strong>Management</strong>, China Cus<strong>to</strong>ms, Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department, Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Statistics Indonesia,Malaysian Department of Statistics, Philippines National Statistics Office, Statistics Singapore, Korean Cus<strong>to</strong>ms Service, Taiwan Ministry of Finance, Bank of Thailand,Markit, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* Simple average of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand export growth.** Subsequent 3-month performance from January 1988 – present.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


ASEAN-5: Fundamentals and ValuationsRegional and LocalEconomyReal GDP Growth ComparisonYear-over-year % change15%10%5%0%9.57.57.84.47-yr. range7-yr. averageLatest5.55.1 3.8 3.7 3.52.3 3.3 2.5ASEAN-5 GDP ShareNominal GDP, USDIndonesia42%Thailand18%Singapore13%-5%-10%China India ASEAN Korea HongKongTaiwanPhilippines13%Malaysia14%Current Account BalanceUSD billions128IndonesiaThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesASEAN-5 Valuation TableMSCIIndicesForwardP/E5-YR AvgForwardP/ETrailingP/B5-YR AvgTrailingP/B4Indonesia 13.7x 13.0x 3.3x 3.4x0Malaysia 15.5x 14.5x 2.1x 2.1x-4Philippines 18.6x 15.1x 3.1x 2.4x-8Singapore 14.1x 13.4x 1.5x 1.6x-12'11 '12 '13Thailand 11.8x 10.9x 2.2x 2.0x7Source: IMF, MSCI, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


ASEAN-5: Trade and CompetitivenessRegional and LocalEconomyNominal Average Monthly Manufacturing WagesUSD per month2001*1000866Latest**80060045540035234830932319320013914874112520Brazil Mexico China Thailand Vietnam IndonesiaMajor Export Partners% of GDPASEANJapanChinaEUUSA4.6%5.5%5.5%6.3%14.2%0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%Thailand: Export Value Performance <strong>to</strong> ASEANIndex, rebased 2000 = 100800600400200LVMC groupASEAN ex-SingaporeASEANTotal ExportsContribution <strong>to</strong> ASEAN GDP Growth8%6%4%2%0%-2%Domestic DemandExternal Demand80'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Source: International Labour Organisation (ILO), IMF, World Trade Organization, ASEANstats, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* Except for Vietnam, which is 2005.** Latest data from 2012 for Mexico, China and Thailand; 2011 for Vietnam and Indonesia; 2010 for Brazil.LVMC stands for Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Right) Domestic Demand defined as private consumption, government consumption and fixed asset investment. External Demand defined as net trade, change ins<strong>to</strong>cks and residuals. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.-4%'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12


Australia: Economic SnapshotRegional and LocalEconomyReal GDP and CPI InflationYear-over-year % change8%6%4%2%20-yr Avg. 2Q13Real GDP: 3.5% 2.6%Inflation: 2.7% 2.4%Unemployment and Consumer Sentiment*8%7%6%5%UnemploymentConsumerSentimentIndex13012011010090800%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '124%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1270Monetary PolicyYear-over-year % change8% Target Cash RateBroad Money Growth 25%20%6%4%9/2013: 2.50%15%10%5%2%0%8/2013: 4.9%0%-5%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Exchange Rates and Current AccountAUD/USDAUD Billions, inverted scale1.201.00-25-20AUD/USD-150.80-100.60Current Account0.40-50'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '129Source: FactSet, World Trade Organization, Australian Bureau of Statistics, WestPac Melbourne Institute,J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment Index.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


China: Economic SnapshotRegional and LocalEconomyContribution <strong>to</strong> Real GDP GrowthYear-over-year % change12%10%8%6%4%2%3.8%6.1%0.1%0.1%4.6% 4.4%5.1% 5.0% 5.3%4.4% 2.4%6.4%4.0%InvestmentNet Exports3.9% 3.9%10-yr Avg. 2Q13Real GDP: 9.9% 7.5%Consumption1.1%4.7% 4.2% 4.1% 4.3%QoQ Annualized0.1%2.3% 4.1%3.4%CPI InflationYear-over-year % change, sa30%25%20%15%10%5%10-yr Avg. 8/2013Headline CPI: 3.1% 2.6%Food CPI: 7.1% 4.7%Non-Food CPI: 1.2% 1.5%0%-2%-0.1%-0.4% -0.4% -0.2%-0.7% -0.9%1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q130%-5%'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Merchandise Trade GrowthYear-over-year % change, 3-month moving average80%60%40%ExportsImportsBenchmark 1-year Lending Rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio8%Lending RateRRR25%20%7%9/2013: 20%15%20%0%-20%6%9/2013: 6%10%5%-40%'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '135%'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130%10Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


China: Cyclical Indica<strong>to</strong>rsRegional and LocalEconomyManufacturing PMIsIndex level605550Markit Mfg. PMINBS Mfg. PMI45'10 '11 '12 '139/2013: 51.19/2013: 50.2Li Keqiang Index* and MSCI ChinaYear-over-year % change28%160%23%Li Keqiang Index*120%18%80%13%40%8%0%MSCI China3%Correlation: 0.63-40%-2%-80%'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Retail SalesYear-over-year % changeFixed <strong>Asset</strong> InvestmentYear-over-year % change, 3-month moving average25%70%20%50%Real EstateInfrastructure15%30%10%8/2013: 13.4%10%FAI5%'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-10%'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1311Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Markit, CEIC, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> "<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* Li Keqiang index is a self-weighted index that compromises China’s electricity production growth, financial institution loans growth and railwayfreight carried volume growth.Data reflect most recently available as of 1/10/13.


China: Real EstateRegional and LocalEconomyHousing Inven<strong>to</strong>ry# of Months202 nd Tier Cities15101 st Tier Cities5'11 '12 '133 rd Tier CitiesHousing Mortgage and Property Developers LoanYear-over-year % change60%50%40%30%20%10%HousingMortgageLoans <strong>to</strong> PropertyDevelopers6/2013: 19.4%6/2013: 16.0%0%'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Residential Floor Space Started and SoldYear-over-year % change, seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average100%80%Residential FloorSpace StartedHome PricesIndex, rebased 2007 = 1002602208/2013: 219.660%40%20%0%-20%Residential FloorSpace Sold180140100Beijing / ShanghaiAverageNational Average8/2013: 154.2-40%'10 '11 '12 '1360'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1312Source: SouFun Holdings Limited, China Real Estate Index System, National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Ministry of Construction, J.P.<strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, FactSet, CEIC, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> "<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


China: Total Social Financing and Monetary ConditionsRegional and LocalEconomyTotal Social Financing BreakdownAnnual New Incremental Loans (RMB Billions)18,00015,00012,0009,000RMB Bank Loansas % of TSFNon-Financial Corporate Equity FinancingBankers' Acceptance BillsNew Entrusted LoansRMB Bank LoansNet Corporate Bond FinancingTrust LoansForeign Currency Loans100%90%80%70%6,00060%3,00050%02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD40%TSF* as % of Nominal GDPEstimate vs. Trend150%120%Loan-<strong>to</strong>-Deposit Ratio and Non Performing Loans (NPL)80%30%Loan-<strong>to</strong>-Deposit Ratio25%75%20%90%Trend70%15%60%30%Estimate65%NPL10%5%0%'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1360%'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130%13Source: People’s Bank of China, National Bureau of Statistics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> "<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> - Asia.”* Total Social Financing is based on <strong>to</strong>tal outstanding loans since 2002, not new incremental loans, with estimated 2013 new TSF increase of RMB17trillion. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


India: Economic SnapshotRegional and LocalEconomyReal GDPYear-over-year % change12%10%8%6%4%2%15-yr Avg. 2Q13Real GDP: 7.1% 4.4%0%'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Inflation and Repo Rate16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Repo RateWholesale Price Index-2%'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Private Consumption GrowthYear-over-year % change12%Fixed Investment GrowthYear-over-year % change30%10%8%6%4%2%Average: 7.5%2Q 2013: 1.6%20%10%0%-10%Average: 9.5%2Q 2013: -1.2%0%'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-20%'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1314Source: J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Reserve Bank of India, FactSet, Bloomberg,J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Right) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) value shown is year-over-year % change. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


India: Profits and FlowsRegional and LocalEconomyInvestment Fund Flows YTDUSD billionsForeign Institutional Investments (Equity)35Foreign Institutional Investments (Debt)302520151050-5Domestic Institutional Investments (Equity)Deficits% of GDP6%Current Account Balance2%-2%-6%Fiscal Balance-10%'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Earnings and Market PerformanceForward earnings per share and <strong>the</strong> MSCI India (Local currency)IndexEPSEPS900MSCI India6070050-1050040-15'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12300'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1330Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Office of <strong>the</strong> Economic Adviser - Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong><strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.15


Japan: Economic SnapshotRegional and LocalEconomyReal GDP Growth and CPI InflationQuarter-over-quarter % change, annualized16%8%0%'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02Consumption Tax Hike(from 3% <strong>to</strong> 5%, Apr 97)'03'04'05'06'08'09'10'11Inflation'12'13-8%GDPPM Koizumi Era(Apr 01 – Sep 06)-16%'95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '134%2%0%-2%-4%Department S<strong>to</strong>re SalesYear-over-year % change, 3mma15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Consumption Tax Hike(from 3% <strong>to</strong> 5%, Apr 97)Tokyo AreaNationwide-15%'95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10New Condominium Sales and Price (Tokyo Area)<strong>JP</strong>Y, thousand, 3mmaYear-over-year % change, 3mma800Sales 80%Sales price per square meter70040%6000%500-40%400-80%'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Bank of Japan Tankan Business Confidence SurveyIndex40200-20-40-60-80ManufacturingIndexNon-manufacturingIndex(Forecast)12/2013: 149/2013: 149/2013: 12(Forecast)12/2013: 11'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '1316Source: Japanese Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan Department S<strong>to</strong>res Association, The Bank of Japan, Real Estate Economic Institute,FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Right, Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) Department s<strong>to</strong>re sales, new condominium sales and price per square meter are 3-month moving average figures.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Right) Forecast for September 2013 from Bank of Japan Tankan Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan.Data reflect most recently available as of 1/10/13.


Japan: Monetary PolicyRegional and LocalEconomyCPI and Nominal WageYear-over-year % change, 3mma4%2%0%-2%CPI ex. fresh foodJapanese Yen CrossYen per foreign currency180150EUR/<strong>JP</strong>YDepreciatingJapanese YenAppreciatingJapanese Yen-4%Nominal wage-6%'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13120Yield Spread and Japanese YenYield spread4%USD/<strong>JP</strong>YUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y14090USD/<strong>JP</strong>YAUD/<strong>JP</strong>Y3%1202%1%10-year GovernmentBond Yield Spread1008060TRY/<strong>JP</strong>YBRL/<strong>JP</strong>Y170%'04 '06 '08 '10 '126030'04 '06 '08 '10 '12Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, FactSet, Bloomberg, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong>“<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Left) Nominal cash earnings by employee are 3-month moving average figures.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) Yield spread is <strong>the</strong> difference between 10-year US Treasury yield and 10-year Japanese Government bond yield.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Japan: Public FinanceRegional and LocalEconomyGovernment Expenditure Breakdown% of GDP25%20%15%10%5%Social SecurityO<strong>the</strong>r SpendingInfrastructureDebt ServicingTohoku EarthquakeGST/VAT Tax Rate30%20%10%2%3%Expected Hike in Oc<strong>to</strong>ber 2015Announced Hike in April 2014% in 201319% 20% 20% 21% 21%23% 23%0%0%5%Japan Germany France UK Italy Spain Greece IrelandGovernment Debt Forecast% of GDP, average nominal GDP growth between FY13 and FY22240Net Foreign <strong>Asset</strong>s% of GDP70%2013: 63%210180150Average Nominal GDP Growth: 2.1%Average Nominal GDP Growth: 3.4%FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY2260%50%40%30%20%10%0%'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1218Source: Japanese Cabinet Office, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, KPMG, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Left) Debt repayment refers <strong>to</strong> national debt service, which includes both interest and principal payment.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) Average nominal GDP growth scenarios based on Japanese Cabinet Office assumptions.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Right) Net foreign assets refer <strong>to</strong> changes in holdings of foreign assets minus foreign liabilities held by <strong>the</strong> surveyed financial institutions.Figures are annualized with <strong>the</strong> latest figure as of March 2013. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Japan: Structural TrendsRegional and LocalEconomyOECD Indica<strong>to</strong>r of Market Regulations*Japan as 100150100500OECD Employment Protection IndexBarriers <strong>to</strong> Trade and InvestmentJapan Germany France Australia UK Canada USLabor Productivity Growth by Sec<strong>to</strong>r% annualized between 2006 <strong>to</strong> 20104%2%0%-2%1.1%3.6%0.6%-0.2% -0.2%-0.8%Total Manufacturing Agriculture Construction Service UtilitiesCorporate Tax Rate% in 201350%Temporary Surcharge forTohoku-area ReconstructionFemale Labour Participation Rate% in 201390%40%30%38.0%80%88%83%81%78%76% 75%70% 70%65%20%40% 35.6% 33% 30%24% 23%70%10%17% 17%US Japan France Germany Korea UK Singapore HK60%Sweden France Germany UK US Australia Japan Greece Italy19Source: IMF, OECD, Japan Productivity Centre, KPMG, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* OECD has developed a range of indica<strong>to</strong>rs at both <strong>the</strong> economy-wide and sec<strong>to</strong>r levels. All of <strong>the</strong>se indica<strong>to</strong>rs measure <strong>the</strong> extent <strong>to</strong> which policy settings promote or inhibitcompetition in areas of <strong>the</strong> product market where competition is viable. In general, <strong>the</strong> higher <strong>the</strong> value, <strong>the</strong> more restrictive <strong>the</strong> country is <strong>to</strong>wards that particular criteria.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) Temporary surcharge represents 2.37% in corporate tax rate.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Korea: Economic SnapshotRegional and LocalEconomyReal GDP and ExportsYear-over-year % change60%40%20%0%Year-over-year % change15%GDP (Quarterly)10%5%0%OECD Trade and Korea ExportsYear-over-year % change60%40%20%0%Korea Exports (3MMA)-20%Exports (Monthly)-5%-20%OECD Imports-40% -10%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-40%'81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13Currency CompetitivenessKorean Won per Japanese Yen, inverted scale681012Korean WonAppreciationAverage: 11 <strong>JP</strong>Y/KRWKorea Exports CompositionBased on Korea Ministry of Trade ClassificationO<strong>the</strong>rs15%ChemicalIndustrialProducts13%MineralProducts10%Steel andMetalProducts8%ApparelRelatedProducts3%1416Korean WonDepreciationVehicles andEquipments20%Electronics31%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1220Source: Korea Cus<strong>to</strong>ms Service, Ministry of Trade, OECD, CEIC, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Taiwan: Economic SnapshotRegional and LocalEconomyReal GDP and ExportsYear-over-year % change90%Exports (Monthly)60%30%0%Year-over-year % change18%12%6%0%OECD Trade and Taiwan ExportsYear-over-year % change60%40%20%0%Taiwan Exports (3MMA)-30%GDP (Quarterly)-6%-20%OECD Imports-60%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-12%-40%'85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13SEMI Book-<strong>to</strong>-bill Ratio and TAIEXRatioIndex, year-over-year % change1.61.31.00.7Book-<strong>to</strong>-BillTAIEX0.4'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12100%60%20%-20%-60%Taiwan Exports CompositionBased on Taiwan Ministry of International Trade ClassificationToysandWatches8%BasicMetals9%Electronics47%O<strong>the</strong>rs5%Chemicals7%Vehicles andEquipments4%ApparelRelatedProducts4%MineralProducts8%Plastics and RubberArticles 8%21Source: Ministry of International Trade, OECD, CEIC, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) SEMI stands for North American Semiconduc<strong>to</strong>r Equipment Industry. Book-<strong>to</strong>-bill ratio is <strong>the</strong> ratio of orders taken in a period <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> amount invoiced over <strong>the</strong>same period. Invoicing is usually done shortly after shipping. Therefore, <strong>the</strong> difference between <strong>the</strong> amount ordered and <strong>the</strong> amount invoiced is usually viewed as a leadingindica<strong>to</strong>r of whe<strong>the</strong>r output will rise or fall. A book-<strong>to</strong>-bill ratio of 1 shows stability, above 1 indicates near-term output expansion and vice versa. Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100%due <strong>to</strong> rounding. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global GrowthEmerging Market Real GDP GrowthYear-over-year % change12%His<strong>to</strong>ricalIMF Forecast2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Global Economy8%4%0%-4%EM China India Indonesia Turkey Brazil Korea Russia MexicoDeveloped Market Real GDP GrowthYear-over-year % change12%His<strong>to</strong>ricalIMF Forecast2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158%4%0%-4%DM US Australia Canada UK Euro Area Germany Italy Japan22Source: IMF, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Forecasts are from <strong>the</strong> IMF’s April 2013 World Economic Outlook.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Economics and DemographicsEconomicsDemographicsGlobal EconomyDevelopedGDP(USD bn)GDP perCapita(USD)Real GDPGrowth(%)Inflation(CPI %)CurrentAccount(% of GDP)Population(millions)DependencyRatio(%)LifeExpectancy(years)Australia 1,542 67,723 3.6% 1.8% -3.7% 22 51.6 82.0 37.6Canada 1,819 52,232 1.8% 1.5% -3.7% 35 47.9 81.6 40.8European Union 16,584 32,518 -0.2% 2.6% 1.0% 504 49.2 79.9 41.3Japan 5,964 46,736 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 127 64.4 84.2 46.4MedianAgeUK 2,441 38,589 0.2% 2.8% -3.5% 63 55.2 80.3 40.3US 15,685 49,922 2.2% 2.1% -3.0% 317 51.5 78.6 37.3EmergingBrazil 2,396 12,078 0.9% 5.4% -2.3% 201 45.1 73.0 31.3China 8,227 6,076 7.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1,350 38.3 75.0 36.2India 1,825 1,492 4.0% 9.3% -5.1% 1,221 51.0 67.5 26.6Indonesia 878 3,592 6.2% 4.3% -2.8% 251 50.2 71.9 29.6Mexico 1,177 10,247 3.9% 4.1% -0.8% 116 51.9 76.9 28.3Russia 2,022 14,247 3.4% 5.1% 4.0% 143 42.1 69.9 38.7Turkey 794 10,609 2.6% 8.9% -5.9% 81 48.2 73.0 30.223Source: IMF, UN, World Bank, CIA, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”All economic data are 2012 data from April 2013 World Economic Outlook published by <strong>the</strong> IMF. Population and life expectancy data are 2012/2013estimates from <strong>the</strong> CIA World Factbook. Age dependency ratio is <strong>the</strong> ratio of people younger than 15 and older than 64 <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> working age population.Median age and age dependency ratios for each region/country are based on 2015 projections from <strong>the</strong> United Nations World Population Prospects.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Monetary PolicyGlobal EconomyMonetary base (M0)Indexed <strong>to</strong> December 20074.03.53.02.52.01.5 Japan1.0USEuro AreaMoney MultiplierM2 / Monetary Base10864JapanEuro AreaUS0.5'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '142'04 '06 '08 '10 '12Country Level Monetary Policy and Inflation Central Bank Policy Rate Inflation Rate Real Policy Rate11%7%3%-1%-5%Hong KongUKUSJapanEuro areaCanadaAustraliaTurkeyIndonesiaSouth AfricaRussiaMexicoThailandColombiaKoreaPolandIndiaTaiwanBrazilChina24Developed <strong>Markets</strong>Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>Source: J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Bot<strong>to</strong>m) Central bank policy rates are <strong>the</strong> short-term target interest rates set by central banks. Inflation rates shown represent year-over-year averagequarterly headline CPI rates for 3Q13. Real policy rates are latest central bank policy rates minus year-over-year inflation.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


The Importance of ExportsExports as a % GDP - 2012Goods exportsGlobal EconomyUSJapanEU9.9%13.4%17.8%USEUJapanChinaO<strong>the</strong>rsBrazil10.8%India15.8%ChinaRussia24.9%26.0%Korea48.5%ASEAN53.5%Taiwan63.4%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%25Source: IMF, CEIC, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Sovereign Debt StressesGDP Growth, Gross Debt-<strong>to</strong>-GDP and Borrowing Costs10%ChinaBubble size = 10-yeargovernment bond yieldGlobal EconomyReal GDP Growth (2012 – 2014F)8%6%4%2%0%-2%RussiaIndonesiaTurkeyAustraliaKoreaMalaysiaMexicoSouth AfricaIndiaBrazilCanadaGermanyUKEUFranceSpainSingaporeUSItaly10%5%JapanPortugal-4%Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>Developed <strong>Markets</strong>Greece-6%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 250%Gross Debt-<strong>to</strong>-GDP Ratio (2013F)26Source: IMF, FactSet, Bloomberg, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, Barclays, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Growth and debt data are based on <strong>the</strong> IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2013. Borrowing costs based on local currency debt. EU overall borrowingcost based on Barclays Capital Euro-Aggregate 7-10 year bond. South Africa’s borrowing cost is based on 7-year government bond yield due <strong>to</strong> dataavailability. Classification of Developed/Emerging Market status based on MSCI’s classification. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: Economic Growth and <strong>the</strong> Composition of GDPEconomy Global EconomyReal GDPQuarter-over-quarter annualized seasonally adjusted, % change10%8%6%4%2%20-yr avg. 2Q13Real GDP: 2.5% 2.5%$625 bn ofoutput lostComponents of GDP2Q13 nominal GDP annualized seasonally adjusted, USD billions18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0003.1% Housing12.7% Investment ex-housing18.8%Gov’t Spending0%-2%-4%$1,323 bn ofoutputrecovered8,0006,0004,00068.6%Consumption-6%2,000-8%-10%'04 '06 '08 '10 '120-2,000- 3.1% Net Exports27Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”GDP values shown in legend are % change vs. prior quarter annualized and reflect 2Q13 GDP.Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: Inflation and UnemploymentInflationYear-over-year % change18%Avg.since1964Avg.since19998/2013Headline CPI 4.3% 2.4% 1.5%Unemployment RateSeasonally adjusted12%Avg.since1964Avg.since19998/2013Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.2% 7.3%Global Economy15%12%Core CPI 4.2% 2.0% 1.8%11%10%9%9%8%6%7%6%3%5%0%4%-3%'64 '69 '74 '79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '093%'64 '69 '74 '79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”28Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: Cyclical Indica<strong>to</strong>rsLight Vehicle SalesMillions, seasonally adjusted annualized rate22Manufacturing and Trade Inven<strong>to</strong>riesDays of sales, seasonally adjusted48al EconomyGlob201816141210Average: 15.28/2013: 16.046444240387/2013: 38.98'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Housing StartsThousands, seasonally adjusted d annualized rate2,4002,0001,6001,200 Average: 1,3718/2013: 891800400'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1236'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Real Capital Goods OrdersNon-defense capital goods orders ex. aircraft, USD bn, seasonally adjusted75706560555045Average: 56.2'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '128/2013: 59.6Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”29(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Right) Capital goods orders deflated by producer price index for capital goods.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: Consumer FinancesHousehold Net WorthUSD billions$80,000$70,0009/2007:$69,0289/2013*:$76,442US Home Sales, Prices, and Housing StartsIndex, rebased 12/1999 = 100175Global Economy$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000150125$10,000'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12US Household Debt Service RatioDebt payments as % of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted15%14%13%12%1007550Price IndexExisting Home SalesHousing Starts11%9/2013*:10.4%10%'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '1025'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '1130Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Federal Reserve, FactSet, National Association of Real<strong>to</strong>rs, US Census Bureau, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong><strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* 3Q13 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> estimates.(Right) Price index is <strong>the</strong> median home sale price.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: The Fed and <strong>the</strong> Money SupplyGlobal EconomyFed’s Balance Sheet: <strong>Asset</strong>sUSD trillions4321O<strong>the</strong>rUS TreasuriesAgency MBS0'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Fed’s Balance Sheet: LiabilitiesUSD trillions43Excess ReservesO<strong>the</strong>r LiabilitiesRequired ReservesMoney MultiplierM2 / Monetary Base10x8x6x9/2013: 3.0x4x2x'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Interest Rate Projections12%10%Long-term Fed Projection8%FOMC Projections216%4%2%9/2013:0.0%-0.25%310'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”0%'84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16Monetary base is defined as <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal amount of a currency that is ei<strong>the</strong>r circulated in <strong>the</strong> hands of <strong>the</strong> public or in <strong>the</strong> commercial bank deposits heldin <strong>the</strong> central bank's reserves. Money multiplier defined as M2 divided by <strong>the</strong> monetary base. Fed projections are based on median of expectations ofFOMC members.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Europe: Economic SnapshotGlobal EconomyEurope Real GDPYear-over-year % change6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%Avg. since19992Q13Real GDP 1.5% 0.0%-8%'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Europe InflationYear-over-year % change5%4%3%2%1%0%Avg. since1999'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11Aug. 2013Headline CPI 2.1% 1.3%Core CPI 1.7% 1.3%Latest Unemployment Rates for European CountriesJuly/August 2013, seasonally adjustedNorwayAustriaGermanyDenmarkNe<strong>the</strong>rlandsUKSwedenFinlandBelgiumEuropean UnionFranceItalyIrelandPortugalSpainGreece3.6%4.8%5.3%6.7%7.0%7.7%8.0%8.0%8.9%10.9%11.0%12.0%13.8%16.5%26.3%27.9%0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%32Source: ECB, Eurostat, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Right) Latest unemployment rate for all European countries are as of July 2013, except Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands, Finland and Sweden, which are as of August 2013.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Europe: Economic FundamentalsGDP GrowthYear-over-year % change6%Euro Area Public and Private Debt% of GDP250%Public DebtPrivate DebtGlobal Economy4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%UKGermanyFranceEuro AreaPIIGS* (Simple Average)-8%'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13200%150%100%50%0%'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12Current Account BalanceEUR Billions, 12-month rolling sum300200Euro Area Total Credit <strong>to</strong> Private Sec<strong>to</strong>rYear-over-year % change16%12%1000-100-200PIIGS*Euro Area8%4%0%8/2013: -1.2%-300'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13-4%'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '1333Source: Eurostat, ECB, Bank of Portugal, Bank of Italy, CSO – Irish Central Statistics Office, Bank of Greece, Bank of Spain, FactSet, MacData,J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* PIIGS stands for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Europe: Cyclical Indica<strong>to</strong>rsGlobal EconomyEconomic Sentiment Index*120110100908/2013: 98.1807060'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13ECB Bank Lending SurveyExpected Credit Conditions Diffusion Index**806040200Tightening CreditConditions7/2013: 1.5-20 Loosening CreditConditions-40'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Export GrowthYear-over-year % change40%30%20%10%0%-10%7/2013: 2.7%-20%-30%'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Retail TradeYear-over-year % change8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%7/2013: 0.7%-6%'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '1334* European Commission Economic Sentiment Index.** The diffusion index is a weighted difference between enterprises expecting tightening or loosening credit conditions.Source: ECB, Eurostat, Bloomberg, FactSet, CEIC, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global and Asia Equity <strong>Markets</strong>: Returns10-yrs ('03 - '12)2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3Q '13 YTD '13 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.China Austra lia Kore a China India Ja pa n India AS EAN US HK Kore a Ja pa n China India8 7 .6 % 3 0 .3% 5 7 .0 % 8 2 .9 % 7 3 .1% - 2 9 .2 % 10 2 .8% 3 2 .2% 1.4 % 2 8 .3 % 14 .9 % 2 4 .3% 19 .3 % 3 2 .5 %India HK India India China US Ta iwa n Kore a AS EAN India Europe US AS EAN Kore a7 8 .3 % 2 5 .0% 3 7 .6 % 5 1.0% 6 6 .2% - 3 7 .6 % 7 9 .2 % 2 6 .7% - 6 .3 % 2 6 .0 % 13 .6 % 19 .7% 18 .3 % 2 9 .6 %. . .Austra lia Kore a Ja pa n AS EAN HK Europe Austra lia HK Austra lia China China Europe India China4 9 .5 % 2 2 .1% 2 5 .5 % 4 2 .4 % 4 1.2 % - 4 6 .4 % 7 6 .4 % 2 3 .2% - 11.0% 2 2 .7 % 12 .2 % 16 .1% 18 .0 % 2 8 .3 %EquitiesAS EAN Europe China Europe AS EAN Ta iwa n AS EAN Ta iwa n Europe AS EAN Austra lia HK Austra lia Ta iwa n4 8 .2 % 2 0 .9% 19 .8 % 3 3 .7 % 3 9 .0% - 4 6 .5 % 7 4 .6 % 2 1.8 % - 11.1% 2 2 .5 % 11.9 % 7 .5 % 15 .2 % 2 5 .0 %Ta iwa n India Austra lia Austra lia Kore a AS EAN Kore a India Kore a Austra lia HK Austra lia Kore a Austra lia4 1.9% 19 .1% 16 .0 % 3 0 .9 % 3 1.9 % - 4 7 .7 % 7 1.3% 2 0 .9% - 12 .0% 2 2 .1% 8 .9 % 5 .1% 14 .8 % 2 3 .7 %Europe AS EAN AS EAN HK Austra lia Austra lia China Ja pa n Ja pa n Kore a Ja pa n Ta iwa n HK HK3 8 .5 % 18 .9 % 10 .7 % 3 0 .4 % 2 8 .3% - 5 0 .7 % 6 2 .3 % 15 .4 % - 14 .3% 2 1.2 % 6 .7 % 4 .5 % 13 .6 % 2 1.8%HK Ja pa n Europe Ta iwa n Europe China HK US HK Europe US Kore a Ta iwa n AS EAN3 8 .1% 15 .9 % 9 .4% 2 0 .0 % 13 .9 % - 5 0 .8 % 6 0 .2 % 14 .8 % - 16 .0% 19 .1% 5 .6 % - 0 .1% 8 .7 % 2 0 .7 %Ja pa n US HK US Ta iwa n HK Europe Austra lia China Ta iwa n Ta iwa n China Europe Europe3 5 .9 % 10 .1% 8 .4% 14 .7% 8 .4 % - 5 1.2 % 3 5 .8 % 14 .5 % - 18 .4% 16 .7 % 3 .1% - 0 .2% 8 .4 % 2 0 .3 %Kore a Ta iwa n Ta iwa n Kore a US Kore a US China Ta iwa n US AS EAN AS EAN US Ja pa n3 5 .0 % 9 .0 % 6 .4% 12 .6% 5 .4 % - 5 5 .3 % 2 6 .3 % 4 .6 % - 2 0 .9 % 15 .3 % - 5 .1% - 3 .6% 6 .6 % 16 .7%US China US Ja pa n Ja pa n India Ja pa n Europe India Ja pa n India India Ja pa n US2 8 .4 % 1.9% 5 .1% 6 .2 % - 4 .2% - 6 4 .6 % 6 .3 % 3 .9 % - 3 7 .2 % 8 .2% - 5 .3% - 12 .8 % 4 .9 % 14 .8%Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Returns are <strong>to</strong>tal (net) returns based on MSCI indices in US dollar terms. 10-yr <strong>to</strong>tal (net) return data is used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.)and 10-yr price return data is used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflect <strong>the</strong> period 1/1/03 – 31/12/12.35Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Equity <strong>Markets</strong>: ValuationsEquity Market Valuations – Price <strong>to</strong> EarningsForward P/E ratios30x36.247.9 59.920-yr. range20-yr. averageLatestEquities20x10x0x22.916.515.116.016.417.314.1 14.614.514.514.313.213.4 14.512.6 12.2 15.014.714.214.1 11.0 13.511.09.210.310.611.1 10.58.5 9.09.88.6S&P 500Europe ex-Asia ex-EmergingASEAN Australia ChinaChina Hong Kong India Japan Korea Taiwan Brazil Mexico TurkeyU.K. Japan <strong>Markets</strong>AEquity Market Valuations – Price <strong>to</strong> BookTrailing P/B ratios5x6.420-yr. range20-yr. averageLatest4x3x2x1x2.82.42.0 1.9 1.91.6 1.5 1.52.02.02.42.02.62.31.4 1.51.41.33.02.51.51.31.3 1.22.11.81.81.42.82.51.91.60xS&P 500Europe ex-U.K.Asia ex-JapanEmerging<strong>Markets</strong>ASEAN Australia ChinaAChina Hong Kong India Japan Korea Taiwan Brazil Mexico Turkey36Source: Standard & Poor’s, MSCI, China Securities Index, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”P/E and P/B ratios are in local currency terms. China A valuations based on CSI300 Index and China valuations based on MSCI China.20-year range for P/E and P/B ratios are cut off <strong>to</strong> maintain a more reasonable scale. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Earnings Expectation and ValuationsEPS Growth Expectations by Region2013, EPS Growth (%)20%AC Asia ex-<strong>JP</strong>15%JapanEM70%60%50%40%Earnings, Dividend and Bond Yields12%30/9/2013 YieldsEarnings Yield 7.4%Dividend Yield 2.6%10%10-yr Treasury Yield 2.6%DM Bond Yield 2.1%Equities10%US5%'12 '132014, EPS Growth (%)15%EuropeJapan30%20%10%22%8%6%MSCI AC World Earnings Yield(inverse of forward P/E)US 10-yearTreasury YieldAC Asia ex-<strong>JP</strong>18%4%DM Bond Yield10%EMUS14%2%Europe5%'12 '1310%6%MSCI AC WorldDividend Yield0%'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1237Source: FactSet, MSCI, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Developed market bond yields represented by J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Government Bond Index (GBI – Global Traded). Earnings yield is calculated as <strong>the</strong>inverse of forward P/E ratio. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Earnings MomentumEquitiesGlobal Earnings Momentum3-month moving average# of companies upgrade / downgrade2.01.51.00.50.0'09 '10 '11 '12 '13EMDMGlobal Net MarginsNet income / sales13%11%9%7%5%3%'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13EMDMEarnings Momentum by Region3-month moving average# of companies upgrade / downgrade2.52.01.51.00.5USEuropeJapanAC Asia ex-JapanNet Margins by RegionNet income / sales12%10%8%6%4%2%0%JapanAC Asia ex-JapanEuropeUS0.0'09 '10 '11 '12 '13-2%'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1338Source: FactSet, MSCI, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Earnings expectations measure <strong>the</strong> number of companies with upward revision (analyst upgrades) over downward revision (analyst downgrades)compared with previous month’s data. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Long-term EPS and DPS GrowthEarnings Per Share (Forward) by RegionIndex, rebased 2003 = 100400Dividends Per Share by RegionIndex, rebased 2003 = 100400 EMEM350350AC Asia Pacificex-JapanEquities300250AC Asia Pacificex-Japan300250Japan200200EuropeEurope150US150US100100Japan50'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1350'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1339Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Earnings Per Share (EPS) is Forward EPS (Next 12 Months). Dividend Per Share (DPS) is Trailing DPS (Last 12 Months).Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Sec<strong>to</strong>rs: ReturnsEquities5-yrs('08 - '12)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . 3Q '13 YTD '13 Ann. Ret.H ealthC areM aterialsC o ns.D isc.H ealthC areF inancialsM aterialsC o ns.D isc.C o ns. Stp.-21.4% 70.1% 25.2% 8.9% 28.7% 11.7% 26.2% 5.9%C o ns. Stp. IT Industrials C o ns. Stp.C o ns.D isc.IndustrialsH ealthC areH ealthC are-24.0% 58.1% 23.8% 7.8% 23.5% 10.9% 24.7% 4.4%. .C o ns.H ealth C o ns.C o ns.UtilitiesM aterials T eleco msIndustrialsD isc.C are D isc.D isc.-30.4% 43.7% 21.6% -0.4% 17.8% 10.2% 18.9% 4.0%T eleco ms F inancials C o ns. Stp. Energy Industrials IT T eleco ms IT-35.6% 36.7% 14.2% -3.0% 16.1% 8.6% 14.6% 1.4%Energy Energy Energy IT IT Energy F inancials Industrials-42.2% 33.3% 11.5% -4.4% 15.3% 7.8% 14.3% -1.7%C o ns.D isc.Industrials IT Utilities C o ns. Stp. T eleco ms IT T eleco ms-42.3% 29.0% 11.3% -4.6% 14.5% 7.5% 13.7% -2.1%IT C o ns. Stp. T eleco msC o ns.D isc.M aterials F inancials C o ns. Stp. M aterials-44.6% 24.2% 11.3% -5.2% 11.0% 7.5% 12.6% -2.8%IndustrialsH ealthC areF inancials Industrials T eleco msH ealthC areUtilitiesEnergy-45.0% 19.5% 6.5% -10.2% 8.1% 6.6% 8.2% -3.1%M aterialsT eleco msH ealthC areF inancials Energy Utilities Energy Utilities-51.9% 16.5% 2.9% -19.3% 2.5% 3.9% 7.6% -5.7%F inancials Utilities Utilities M aterials Utilities C o ns. Stp. M aterials F inancials-53.9% 9.7% 0.0% -21.5% 2.4% 3.1% -4.5% -7.0%Global Sec<strong>to</strong>r Performance*Index, rebased 2007 = 10018014010060CyclicalsFinancialsDefensives20'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Global Cyclicals vs. Defensives*Index, rebased 2007 = 100130100CyclicalsOutperformanceDefensivesOutperformance70'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1340Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Sec<strong>to</strong>r returns are <strong>to</strong>tal (net) returns based on MSCI indices in US dollar terms. 5-yr data is used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized net <strong>to</strong>tal returns (Ann.),reflecting <strong>the</strong> period from 1/1/08 – 31/12/12.* Based on MSCI AC World GICS Sec<strong>to</strong>rs. Cyclical sec<strong>to</strong>rs include Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials and Energy.Defensive sec<strong>to</strong>rs include Consumer Staples, Utilities, Telecommunication Services, and Health Care.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: Source of Earnings, Corporate Profits and LeverageS&P 500 Year-over-Year EPS GrowthGrowth broken in<strong>to</strong> revenue growth and margin expansion, quarterly50%Margin Share of EPS GrowthRevenue Share of EPS Growth25%0%Equities-25%-50%'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Adjusted After-Tax Corporate Profits (% of GDP)Includes inven<strong>to</strong>ry and capital consumption adjustments12% 6/2013:10.1%10%Total LeverageS&P 500, ratio of <strong>to</strong>tal debt <strong>to</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal equity, quarterly240%220%200%8%6%Average: 6.3%180%160%Average: 172%4%140%120%9/2013:104%2%'65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10100%'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1241Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, BEA, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top) EPS based on operating earnings per share. 2Q13 figures are Standard & Poor’s estimates and based on company filings as of 19/9/13.1Q 2009, 1Q2010 and 2Q2010 reflect -101%, 92% and 51% growth, respectively, in operating earnings and are cut off <strong>to</strong> maintain a morereasonable scale. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: S&P 500 Index at Inflection PointsS&P 500 IndexIndex1,8001,600Mar. 24, 2000P/E (fwd.) = 25.6xIndex level: 1,527Characteristic Mar – 2000 Oct – 2007 Sept – 2013Index level 1,527 1,565 1,682P/E ratio (fwd.) 25.6x 15.2x 14.3xDividend yield 1.1% 1.8% 2.2%10-yr Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 2.6%Oct. 9, 2007P/E (fwd.) = 15.2xIndex level: 1,565Sept. 30, 2013P/E (fwd.) = 14.3xIndex level: 1,682Equities1,400+106%+101%1,2001,000-49%-57%+149%800Dec. 31, 1996Oct. 9, 2002Mar. 9, 2009P/E (fwd.) = 16.0xP/E (fwd.) = 14.1xP/E (fwd.) = 10.3xIndex level: 741Index level: 777Index level: 677600'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1342Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Latest forward P/E ratio as of 30/9/13.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Europe: Earnings and ValuationsMSCI Europe: Geographical Source of RevenuesEmerging<strong>Markets</strong>33%O<strong>the</strong>rs3%MSCI Europe EPS and OECD Euro Area CLI*Year-over-year % change40%MSCI Europe EPS20%Index103101EquitiesNorthAmerica18%DevelopedEurope46%0%-20%OECD Euro Area CLI-40%-60%'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12999795MSCI Europe and US: Dividend Yields6%5%9/2013: 3.6%MSCI Europe and US: Relative Valuations1.2xEurope / US Forward P/EEurope relativelymore expensivecompared <strong>to</strong> US4%3%Europe1.0x9/2013: 0.88x2%1%US9/2013: 2.1%0.8xEuroperelatively cheapercompared <strong>to</strong> US0%'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '120.6x'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1243Source: MSCI, OECD, <strong>Morgan</strong> Stanley, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* The OECD Composite Leading Indica<strong>to</strong>rs (CLI) are designed <strong>to</strong> anticipate turning points in economic activity relative <strong>to</strong> trend and continue <strong>to</strong> signaldiverging growth patterns across major economies.Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Japan: TOPIX at Inflection PointsTOPIX Index and Japanese YenIndexUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y3,5002803,00011. Index: 2,881.4EPS: 55.2PER: 48.8xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 143.8USD/<strong>JP</strong>Y240Equities2,5002,0001,5001,000500TOPIX22. Index: 1,123.1EPS: 37.5PER: 33.0xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 126.14. Index: 1741.2EPS: 23.8PER: 42.8xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 107.3343. Index: 982.5EPS: 31.3PER: 31.3xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 117.255. Index: 782.0EPS: 22.1PER: 16.0xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 120.46. Index: 1815.0EPS: 84.5PER: 18.5xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 121.1677. Index: 721.4EPS: 13.8PER: 21.5xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 97.88. Sep 30, 2013Index: 1194.1EPS: 80.8PER: 13.9xUSD/<strong>JP</strong>Y: 98.18200160120800'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '104044Source: Thomson Reuters, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* Latest EPS and forward P/E ratio (PER) as of 19/9/13.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Asia: Valuation AnalysisEquitiesMSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Trailing P/B Valuation AnalysisTrailing P/B ratios since January 1996Subsequent 12-month return120%80%40%0%-40%-80%114%63% 58%12% 8% 8% 2%-16% -12%0.8 - 1.0x 1.0 - 1.2x 1.2 - 1.4x 1.4 - 1.6x 1.6 - 1.8x 1.8 - 2.0x 2.0 - 2.2x 2.2 - 2.4x 2.4 - 2.6x 2.6 - 2.8x 2.8 - 3.0xAsian Equities Trailing P/B Valuation AnalysisAsiaex-JapanMSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Trailing P/BAverage returnSubsequent 12-monthreturns rangeAustralia China Hong Kong India Japan Korea TaiwanLatest P/B* 1.5x 2.0x 1.5x 1.3x 2.5x 1.3x 1.2x 1.8xAverage P/B 1.8x 2.2x 1.9x 1.6x 3.1x 1.7x 1.3x 2.2xRange** 1.4 – 1.7x 1.8 – 2.2x 1.1 – 1.9x 1.2 – 1.5x 2.0 – 2.9x 1.1 – 1.5x 1.0 – 1.3x 1.4 – 2.1xTotal # of times*** 56 80 79 62 91 41 54 102-40%-58%Average return 11% 10% 16% 15% 21% 1% 17% 10%% of times positive 71% 86% 70% 71% 70% 44% 70% 75%Average return (+) 21% 13% 35% 26% 36% 20% 32% 18%% of times negative 29% 14% 30% 29% 30% 56% 30% 25%Average return (-) -12% -6% -27% -11% -14% -13% -17% -12%45Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”* Latest P/B ratio as of 30/9/2013.** Each range is estimated based on +/- 0.5 standard deviation from <strong>the</strong> latest P/B ratio of individual Asian equity indices using MSCI data from January 1996.*** The number of times <strong>the</strong> P/B ratio of an individual Asian equity index has fallen within <strong>the</strong> standard deviation range (i.e. sampling size). The <strong>to</strong>tal sampling size sinceJanuary 1996 included in <strong>the</strong> valuation analysis is 201 months.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>: Share and Composition of GDP and EarningsEM Share of Global GDP% of Nominal GDP (in USD)Share of Global GDPBased on nominal GDP, 201240%30%20%US22%O<strong>the</strong>rDev.9%EM38%Equities10%0%'88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12Japan8%EuropeanUnion23%MSCI EM Earnings% of Global Market EarningsWeight in MSCI AC World Index% of Global Market Capitalization40%30%O<strong>the</strong>r Dev.12%EM11%20%10%US48%EuropeanUnion21%Japan8%0%'88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '1246Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, IMF, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>: Returns10-yrs ('03 - '12)2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . 3Q '13 YTD Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.T urkey Indo nesia R ussia C hina B razilSo uthA fricaB razilSo uthA fricaIndo nesia T urkey R ussia R ussia Indo nesia T urkey125.3% 50.6% 73.1% 82.9% 79.6% -37.9% 128.1% 34.2% 6.0% 64.2% 13.6% 0.4% 28.2% 41.6%B razil M exico B razil Indo nesia T urkey M exico Indo nesia Indo nesia M exico M exico C hina C hina B razil R ussiaEquities114.4% 48.3% 56.4% 73.8% 74.1% -42.9% 126.2% 33.9% -12.1% 29.1% 12.2% -0.2% 25.8% 35.9%. 35.9So uthSo uthSo uth A sia ex-C hinaT urkey R ussia India C hina R ussia M exicoIndiaT urkey B razilA fricaA fricaA frica Japan87.6% 44.9% 56.1% 55.6% 73.1% -50.8% 104.2% 27.6% -14.4% 26.0% 8.8% -0.3% 22.6% 32.8%India T urkey M exico India C hinaA sia ex-JapanIndiaIndiaA sia ex-JapanC hina B razil EM E M exico Indo nesia78.3% 41.4% 49.1% 51.0% 66.2% -52.4% 102.8% 20.9% -17.3% 22.7% 8.4% -4.4% 19.7% 32.6%Indo nesia B razil India B razil Indo nesia EM E T urkey T urkey C hinaA sia ex-JapanEM E M exico C hina India76.5% 35.9% 37.6% 45.3% 54.2% -53.3% 97.5% 20.8% -18.4% 22.4% 5.8% -7.4% 19.3% 32.5%R ussia EM E EM E M exicoA sia ex-JapanB razilEM E75.1% 25.6% 34.0% 41.4% 40.1% -56.2% 78.5% 19.6% -18.4% 18.7% 5.7% -8.3% 18.0% 28.3%EM EIndiaSo uthA fricaA sia ex-JapanEM EIndo nesiaA sia ex-JapanA sia ex-JapanEM ESo uthA fricaA sia ex-JapanSo uthA fricaR ussia R ussia EM E M exico B razil55.8% 19.1% 28.3% 33.3% 39.4% -56.5% 72.1% 19.1% -19.6% 18.2% -1.7% -11.1% 17.8% 26.9%A sia ex-JapanA sia ex-JapanA sia ex-JapanIndiaSo uthA fricaEM E R ussia T urkey C hina EM E B razil R ussia India India EM E EM E46.6% 17.3% 22.7% 32.2% 24.5% -62.3% 62.3% 18.9% -21.8% 13.7% -5.3% -12.8% 16.5% 24.1%So uthA fricaR ussiaC hinaSo uthA fricaSo uthA fricaIndiaSo uthA fricaB razil T urkey Indo nesia T urkey T urkey45.9% 5.5% 19.8% 20.5% 18.1% -64.6% 57.8% 6.5% -35.4% 4.6% -6.7% -14.7% 14.6% 23.9%M exico C hina Indo nesia T urkey M exico R ussia M exico C hina India B razil Indo nesia Indo nesia R ussia32.8% 1.9% 15.1% -7.2% 12.2% -73.9% 56.6% 4.6% -37.2% 0.0% -24.0% -19.7% 13.7% 23.1%A sia ex-JapanC hinaSo uthA fricaM exicoA sia ex-JapanSource: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Returns are <strong>to</strong>tal (net) returns based on MSCI indices in US dollar terms. 10-yr <strong>to</strong>tal (net) return data are used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 10-yrprice return data is used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflect <strong>the</strong> period 1/1/03 – 31/12/12.47Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Emerging <strong>Markets</strong>: Index CompositionEmerging<strong>Markets</strong>Asia exJapanBrazil China Russia India South Africa Turkey Indonesia MexicoCountryCons. Disc. 8.8% 10.1% 4.8% 5.5% n/a 6.9% 21.7% 4.9% 17.1% 8.7%Cons. Staples 8.8% 5.5% 16.4% 6.0% 7.0% 12.2% 6.1% 13.2% 13.8% 27.6%Energy 11.9% 6.3% 15.8% 14.7% 57.7% 12.5% 10.4% 4.2% 4.0% n/aEquitiesFinancials 27.0% 32.5% 29.8% 39.3% 17.5% 23.0% 26.5% 51.6% 35.3% 16.5%Health Care 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 1.2% n/a 7.4% 5.8% n/a 2.7% 0.9%Industrials 6.2% 8.8% 4.9% 6.1% n/a 3.8% 3.9% 12.7% 3.8% 8.6%Technology 15.1% 19.3% 2.7% 9.2% n/a 20.8% n/a n/a n/a n/aMaterials 9.8% 6.0% 17.0% 3.3% 7.1% 6.7% 11.9% 3.9% 6.5% 18.6%Sec<strong>to</strong>r WeightsTelecom 7.6% 6.5% 2.8% 11.6% 9.1% 2.8% 13.6% 9.6% 11.2% 19.1%Utilities 3.2% 3.8% 5.2% 3.2% 1.5% 3.9% n/a n/a 5.7% n/aForward P/E 10.5x 11.1x 11.0x 9.0x 5.5x 14.2x 14.2x 9.8x 13.7x 17.3xP/EDividend Yield 2.8% 2.6% 4.5% 3.4% 3.8% 1.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.8% 1.4%DivTrailing P/B 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x 1.5x 0.7x 2.5x 2.4x 1.6x 3.3x 2.8xP/BROE 12.6% 12.0% 10.0% 14.8% 13.9% 15.5% 14.7% 16.1% 20.5% 13.7%ROEBeta (β) 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2β48Source: MSCI, FactSet, Bloomberg, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Index weights are based on MSCI indices. Beta is calculated against MSCI AC World Index.Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Dividend IncomeEquity Dividend Yield10-year government bond yield6%4.5%4%3.6% 3.7% 3.5%3.0%2.6%2.8% 2.5%2%2.1% 1.9%Dividend Yield vs. EPS Growth3-year average5%AustraliaPoland4%EuropeAsia Pacific countriesO<strong>the</strong>r EM countriesRegionsBrazilTaiwanEquities0%REIT Dividend Yield6%4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.6%4%3.8%10-year government bond yield6.0%5.4% 5.8% 4.0%3.2%Dividend Yield3%2%1%Hong KongAP ex JpChinaMalaysiaSouth AfricaTurkeyThailandRussiaEMPhilippinesIndonesiaUSMexicoKorea India2%0%0%-1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24%EPS growth49Source: FactSet, NAREIT, Standard & Poor’s, Ibbotson, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Left) Yields shown are for <strong>the</strong> appropriate MSCI index.(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) Yields shown are for <strong>the</strong> appropriate FTSE NAREIT REIT index, which excludes property development companies.(Right) Yield and EPS growth are average values over <strong>the</strong> last 3 years from respective MSCI indices and S&P 500.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Asia Dividend IncomeMSCI Asia ex-Japan: Performance by Dividend YieldUSD cumulative <strong>to</strong>tal return of quintiles with quarterly rebalancing (Jan. 2000 base = 100)1,000800600400Top Quintile2 nd Quintile3 rd Quintile4 th QuintileBot<strong>to</strong>m QuintileAll S<strong>to</strong>cksEquities2000'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Total Return: Dividends vs. Capital AppreciationAverage annualized returns over 10 years30%20%10%0%2.3%4.7%3.2% 2.8%6.0%8.0%4.4% 7.4% 8.7%11.5%9.5% 8.9%7.3%10.3%7.2%9.2%12.4% 12.1%10.8% 10.6%16.9% 17.2%3.8%6.1%7.0%7.4%7.5%11.2%7.3%12.4%6.1%11.1%14.3% 14.8%3.3%DividendsCapital AppreciationAsia Pacific O<strong>the</strong>r EM Regions5.5%5.4% 5.3%6.7%6.2%9.0% 10.1%Japan Taiwan Hong Kong Korea Singapore Australia Malaysia China Thailand Philippines Indonesia Russia Poland South Africa Turkey Mexico Brazil US Europe AC Asia EMPacific ex <strong>JP</strong> (Emerging<strong>Markets</strong>)Source: FactSet, MSCI, CLSA, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.50


Global Fixed Income: Yields and ReturnsGlobal Bond OpportunitiesUS High YieldLocal CCY EMDEM CorporatesYTM6.8%6.3%6.1%Duration*(Years)4.24.76.35-yrs('08 - '12)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . 3Q '13 YTD '13 Ann. Ret.Fixed Income Sec<strong>to</strong>r ReturnsUS Tre a s US HY US HY US Tre a sLoc a lEMDUS HY US HY US HY13 . 7 % 5 8 .2 % 15 . 1% 9 .8 % 19 . 9 % 2 .3 % 3 .7 % 10 .3 %Loc a l US D US D Loc a lUSDUS Agg EM CorpCa shEMD EMD EMD EMDEMD5 . 2 % 4 1. 7 % 13 . 1% 8 .5 % 18 . 5 % 1.8 % . 0 .0 % . 10 .3 %Ca shUS DAsia nEM CorpUS IGCorpEM Corp EM Corp US Agg EM Corp1.8 % 2 8 .3 % 13 . 1% 8 .1% 16 . 7 % 1.3 % - 1.9 % 9 .9 %USD EMD6.0%6.9Loc a lAsia nUS DEMDLoc a lAsia nUS AggUS HYUS DAsia nUS Tre a sUSDAsia n1.0 % 2 8 .2 % 12 . 2 % 7 .8 % 15 . 8 % 1.3 % - 2 . 0 % 8 .7 %Fixed IncomeUSD Asian BondLocal CCY Asian BondUS IG Corporates5.3%4.2%3.3%5.35.56.9US IG US IG US D Loc a l US D US D US IG US IGCorp Corp EMD Asia n Asia n EMD Corp Corp- 4 .9 % 18 . 7 % 12 . 0 % 5 .0 % 14 . 3 % 0 .9 % - 2 . 6 % 7 .9 %Loc a lEMDLoc a lEMDUS DAsia nUS HYUS IGCorpUS IGCorpUS DAsia nLoc a lEMD- 6 .9 % 16 . 6 % 10 . 6 % 5 .0 % 9 .8 % 0 .8 % - 2 . 9 % 6 .1%US DAsia nLoc a lAsia nUS IGCorpUS DAsia nLoc a lAsia nUS AggEM CorpLoc a lAsia n- 9 .8 % 6 .3 % 9 .0 % 4 .1% 8 .9 % 0 .6 % - 4 . 0 % 6 .1%US Aggregate2.3%5.5US DEMDUS Agg US Agg EM Corp US Agg US Tre a sLoc a lEMDUS Agg- 10 .9 % 5 .9 % 6 .5 % 3 .5 % 4 .2 % 0 .1% - 4 . 8 % 5 .9 %US TreasuryCash1.2%0.0%5.10.2EM Corp Ca sh US Tre a s Ca sh US Tre a s Ca shLoc a lAsia nUS Tre a s- 16 .2 % 0 . 1% 5 .9 % 0 .1% 2 .0 % 0 .0 % - 5 . 5 % 5 .4 %US HY US Tre a s Ca shLoc a lEMDCa shLoc a lAsia nUS DEMDCa sh- 2 6 . 2 % - 3 .6 % 0 .1% - 6 . 4 % 0 . 1% - 1. 3 % - 7 . 4 % 0 .4 %Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong>, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Based on Barclays US Aggregate Credit - Corporate High Yield Index (US HY), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Government Bond Index – EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local CCY EMD), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Corporate Emerging MarketBond Index (CEMBI) (EM Corp), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Asia Credit Index (JACI) (USD Asian), HSBC Asian Local Bond Index (Local Asian),Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade (US IG Corp), Barclays Capital US Aggregate (US Agg), Barclays Global US Treasury – Bills (3-5 years) (US Treasury) and Barclays US Treasury – Bills (1-3months) (Cash). 5-yr data is used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized returns (Ann.). Returns are in USD and reflect <strong>the</strong> period from 1/1/08 – 31/12/12.51* Duration is a measure of <strong>the</strong> sensitivity of <strong>the</strong> price (<strong>the</strong> value of <strong>the</strong> principal) of a fixed-income investment <strong>to</strong> a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as numberof years. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: High Yield BondsHigh Yield Spreads and Defaults20%15%10%SpreadsDefault RatesAverage LatestHY Spreads 5.9% 5.1%HY Defaults 4.1% 1.1%5%0%'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Fixed IncomeHis<strong>to</strong>rical High Yield Recovery Rates YTDHigh yield bonds, cents on <strong>the</strong> dollar706050Average: 41.2¢403020100'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12Annual High Yield Bond Issuance YTDUSD billions4003002001000'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1252Source: US Treasury, Moody’s, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top) Default rates are defined as <strong>the</strong> par value percentage of <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal market trading at or below 50% of par value and include any Chapter 11 filing, prepackaged filing ormissed interest payments. Yield-<strong>to</strong>-worst is defined as <strong>the</strong> lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without <strong>the</strong> issuer actually defaulting andreflects <strong>the</strong> possibility of <strong>the</strong> bond being called at an unfavorable time for <strong>the</strong> holder. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield-<strong>to</strong>-worst less comparablematurity Treasury yields. Recovery rates and issuance are as of 3/9/13.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Asia: Sovereign Debt and Credit <strong>Markets</strong>Fixed Income2-year Government Bond Yields14%12%10%8%6%4%Yield-<strong>to</strong>-MaturityCountry (30/9/13)India 8.7%Indonesia 7.2%China 3.6%Malaysia 3.2%Thailand 3.0%Korea 2.8%Australia 2.5%Philippines 2.0%US 0.3%US and Asia High Yield CorporatesSpread over Treasuries, basis points3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500Average0'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Asia Pacific Corporate Default summary8%6%Default TotalIG DefaultHY DefaultLatestAsia HY spreads 613 541US HY spreads 642 5082%4%2%0%'09 '10 '11 '12 '130%'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '1153Source: Bond Radar, FactSet, Bloomberg, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics , J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Right) Asia high yield is represented by combining <strong>the</strong> J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Asia Credit Index (JACI). The New JACI Index replaced <strong>the</strong> Old JACI Index inJanuary 2006 after it was discontinued. US high yield is represented by <strong>the</strong> J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Domestic High Yield Index.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> and Asia: Sovereign DebtUS and Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> Sovereign Debt YieldsYield <strong>to</strong> maturity16%12%8%Emerging MarketSovereign (USD)AverageSince 2002LatestEmerging Market Sovereign (USD) yields 7.5% 6.1%Emerging Market Sovereign (LCY) yields 7.2% 6.9%10-year US Treasury yields 3.6% 2.6%Emerging Market Sovereign(Local Currency)4%10-year US TreasuryFixed Income0%'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12EM and Asia Credit Ratings on Foreign Currency Long-Term DebtAAAAAA+A-BBBBB+BB-BAsia2000 2007 CurrentNon - AsiaInvestmentGradeThresholdSingapore China Korea Malaysia Thailand Philippines India Indonesia Poland SouthAfricaMexico Brazil TurkeySource: Standard & Poor’s, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top) The J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> EMBI Plus (EMBI+) is used <strong>to</strong> represent EM sovereign (USD) yields. The J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> GBI-EM Global Composite is used <strong>to</strong> represent EMsovereign local currency yields.54Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> and Asia: CurrenciesCurrency Valuation, Current Account and Nominal Yields20%SingaporeFixed IncomeCurrent Account as % of GDP (2013 Forecast)15%10%5%0%-5%Bubble size = nominal 5-yeargovernment bond yield5%IndiaTaiwanPhilippines KoreaSouth AfricaMexicoPolandMalaysiaChinaRussiaBrazilThailandIndonesia-10%AustraliaAsia Pacific countriesTurkeyO<strong>the</strong>r EM countries-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3REER currency valuations (standard deviations away from mean)Source: IMF, Bloomberg, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Current account forecasts are provided by IMF, based on <strong>the</strong> April 2013 World Economic Outlook.REER is <strong>the</strong> real effective exchange rate of a currency against a basket of its main trading partners’ currencies adjusted for inflation.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.55


Currencies: Real Effective Exchange RatesUSD Trade Weighted Index160REER10-year moving averageEUR Trade Weighted Index120REER10-year moving average140+ 1.5 stdev.100+ 1.5 stdev.120100-1.5 stdev.80'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '1280-1.5 stdev.60'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12Fixed IncomeGBP Trade Weighted Index130+ 1.5 stdev.110REER10-year moving average<strong>JP</strong>Y Trade Weighted Index160140REER10-year moving average+ 1.5 stdev.9012070-1.5 stdev.50'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12100-1.5 stdev.80'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12Source: J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong>, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”REER is <strong>the</strong> real effective exchange rate of a currency against a basket of its main trading partners’ currencies adjusted for inflation. REER is rebased <strong>to</strong> 100 in January 1980. Anupward moving line indicates a streng<strong>the</strong>ning currency.56Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Currencies: Valuation and External VulnerabilityGlobal Currencies Valuation Based on PPP*100%50%0%-50%-63%DM CurrenciesEM Currencies-43% -42% -41% -41%OvervaluedRelative <strong>to</strong> PPP2% 6% 7%-25% -17% -16% -10%-37%-32% -31% -30% UndervaluedRelative <strong>to</strong> PPP18%33% 42%76%Fixed In ncome-100%INR THB MYR PHP ZAR IDR TRY MXN RMB KRW RUB SGD BRL <strong>JP</strong>Y EUR GBP CAD NZD AUD CHFShort-term t External Debt as % of Foreign Reserves (Excluding Gold)350%313% 310%1997300%283%2012250%200%150%100%50%0%211%145%146%119%108%94% 97%66%46%55%49%55%35%40%26%29%30% 36%17%Korea Brazil South Africa Indonesia Thailand Mexico Philippines Turkey Malaysia China India57Source: IMF, Reserve Bank of India, Turkish Undersecretariat of Treasury, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”*Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is <strong>the</strong> rate of exchange between two currencies that gives <strong>the</strong>m equal purchasing powers in <strong>the</strong>ir own economies. Allcurrencies are US dollar per foreign currencies. Undervalued/Overvalued based on <strong>the</strong> spot rate against <strong>the</strong> IMF 2013 Implied PPP Conversion Rateexcept EUR, which is based on OECD 2012 Implied PPP Conversion Rate. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


<strong>Asset</strong> Class ReturnsO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour10-yrs ('03 - '12)2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . 3Q '13 YTD '13 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.Asia e x-Ja pa nUS REITsAsia e x-Ja pa nUS REITsAsia e x-Ja pa nUS BondsAsia e x-Ja pa nUS REITsUS REITsAsia e x-Ja pa nUSEquitie sUSEquitie sAsia e x-Ja pa n4 7 .0 % 3 1.5 % 2 3 .2 % 3 5 .9% 4 0 .5 % 5 .2 % 7 2 .5 % 2 8 .5 % 8 .7 % 2 2 .7 % 5 .9% 2 0 .5 % 15 .0 % 2 6 .1%US REITsAsia e x-Ja pa nCmdtyAsia e x-Ja pa nCmdtyCa shUS HighYie ldAsia e x-Ja pa nEMDEMDAsia e x-Ja pa nUS REITsUS REITs3 6 .7 % 17 .7 % 17 .5 % 3 3 .7% 11.1% 1.8 % 5 8 .2 % 19 .9 % 8 .5 % 18 .5 % 5 .9% 4 .3 % 11.6 % 2 3 .1%. .US HighY ie ldBa la nc e d US REITs Ba la nc e d Ba la nc e d EMD Ba la nc e d Cmdty US Bonds US REITs Ba la nc e d2 9 .0 % 13 .2 % 12 .1% 17 .3% 10 .2 % - 10 .9 % 3 7 .2 % 16 .7 % 7 .8 % 17 .8 % 2 .8% 3 .7 % 11.6 % 18 .4 %USEquitie sEMDEMDUSEquitie sUS BondsUS HighY ie ldUS REITsBa la nc e dUS HighY ie ldUSEquitie sUS HighY ie ldUS HighY ie ldBa la nc e d2 8 .7 % 11.7 % 10 .7 % 15 .8% 7 .0 % - 2 6 .2 % 2 8 .6 % 15 .4 % 5 .0 % 16 .0 % 2 .3% 3 .3 % 10 .6 % 14 .8 %EMDUS HighY ie ldUS REITsAsia e x-Ja pa nCmdtyUSEquitie sUS HighUS HighUS High US US HighBa la nc e dBa la nc e dEMD Ba la nc e d EMDCmdty Ca sh Ba la nc e d Ba la nc e dY ie ldY ie ldY ie ld Equitie s Y ie ld2 8 .6 % 11.1% 10 .1% 11.8% 6 .3 % - 2 8 .4 % 2 8 .2 % 15 .1% 2 .1% 15 .8 % 2 .1% 0 .0 % 10 .2 % 12 .1%EMDUSEquitie sUSEquitie sEMDUSEquitie sCmdtyUSEquitie sUSEquitie sCa sh Ba la nc e d EMDAsia e x-Ja pa nUSEquitie s2 5 .7 % 10 .9 % 4 .9 % 9 .9 % 5 .5 % - 3 6 .6 % 2 6 .5 % 15 .1% 0 .1% 15 .0 % 0 .9% - 0 .1% 7 .1% 11.4 %Cmdty Cmdty Ca sh Ca sh Ca shUSEquitie sCmdty EMD Ba la nc e d US Bonds US Bonds US Bonds US Bonds EMD2 2 .7 % 7 .6 % 3 .0 % 4 .8 % 4 .8 % - 3 7 .0 % 18 .7 % 12 .0 % 0 .0 % 4 .2 % 0 .6% - 1.9 % 5 .2 % 8 .9 %US BondsUS BondsUS HighY ie ldUS BondsUS HighY ie ldUS HighYie ldUS REITs US Bonds US Bonds Cmdty Ca sh Ca sh EMD Cmdty US Bonds4 .1% 4 .3 % 2 .7 % 4 .3 % 1.9 % - 3 8 .0 % 5 .9 % 6 .5 % - 13 .4 % 0 .1% 0 .0% - 7 .4 % 2 .3 % 3 .6 %Ca sh Ca sh US Bonds Cmdty US REITsAsia e x-Ja pa nCa shCa shAsia e x-Ja pa nCmdty US REITs Cmdty Ca sh Ca sh1.0 % 1.2 % 2 .4 % - 2 .7% - 16 .8 % - 5 2 .2 % 0 .1% 0 .1% - 17 .1% - 1.1% - 2 .0% - 8 .6 % 1.7 % 0 .0 %Source: MSCI, Dow Jones, Standard and Poor’s, Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”The “Balanced” portfolio assumes <strong>the</strong> following weights: 20% in <strong>the</strong> S&P 500 (US Equities), 20% in <strong>the</strong> MSCI Asia ex Japan (Asia ex Japan), 15% in <strong>the</strong> J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> EMBIG Index(EMD), 10% in <strong>the</strong> Barclays Capital Aggregate (US Bonds), 15% in <strong>the</strong> Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index (US High Yield), 5% in <strong>the</strong> DJ UBS Commodity Index (Cmdty), 10%in MSCI US REITs Index (US REITs) and 5% in Barclays US Treasury – Bills (1-3 months) (Cash). Balanced portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. All data except commoditiesrepresent <strong>to</strong>tal return in US dollar terms for <strong>the</strong> stated period. 10-yr <strong>to</strong>tal return data is used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 10-yr price return data is used <strong>to</strong>calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflect <strong>the</strong> period 1/1/03 – 31/12/12. Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.58


<strong>Asset</strong> Class Correlations10-year CorrelationsAsia ex-JapanEMEquitiesUSEquitiesLocal CCY USDAsian Bond Asian BondLocal CCYEMDUSDEMDEMCorpUS HighYieldUS IGCorpUSAggCmdtyGlobalREITsAsia ex-Japan 1.00 0.97 0.76 0.55 0.60 0.34 0.63 0.62 0.71 0.45 0.13 0.56 0.66EM Equities 0.98 1.00 0.78 0.53 0.59 0.33 0.64 0.62 0.70 0.41 0.11 0.62 0.68US Equities 0.76 0.80 1.00 0.50 0.52 0.30 0.55 0.55 0.72 0.32 0.03 0.51 0.85Local CCYAsian Bond0.72 0.70 0.50 1.00 0.60 0.70 0.67 0.57 0.54 0.56 0.47 0.38 0.64USD Asian Bond 0.66 0.62 0.47 0.82 1.00 0.63 0.93 0.97 0.72 0.81 0.64 0.41 0.64Local CCY EMD 0.34 0.33 0.18 0.76 0.74 1.00 0.69 0.58 0.36 0.56 0.59 0.09 0.49USD EMD 0.58 0.57 0.41 0.83 0.92 0.83 1.00 0.92 0.75 0.80 0.65 0.43 0.70EM Corp 0.77 0.75 0.60 0.85 0.97 0.69 0.89 1.00 0.75 0.83 0.61 0.44 0.63US High Yield 0.85 0.83 0.80 0.68 0.76 0.42 0.68 0.85 1.00 0.62 0.24 0.46 0.80O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour59US IG Corp 0.34 0.26 0.05 0.62 0.71 0.66 0.69 0.67 0.53 1.00 0.82 0.28 0.49US Agg -0.07 -0.15 -0.31 0.41 0.47 0.64 0.53 0.35 0.11 0.85 1.00 0.06 0.25Cmdty 0.67 0.70 0.69 0.65 0.53 0.35 0.50 0.60 0.61 0.15 -0.09 1.00 0.48Global REITs 0.70 0.70 0.79 0.75 0.73 0.61 0.70 0.81 0.86 0.44 0.14 0.64 1.003-year CorrelationsSource: FactSet, Bloomberg, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Barclays Capital, DJ UBS, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Economics, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Correlations based on MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan (Asia ex-Japan), MSCI Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> (EM Equities), S&P 500 (US Equities), HSBC Asian Local Bond Index (Local CCY Asian Bond), J.P.<strong>Morgan</strong> Asia Credit Index (JACI) (USD Asian Bond), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Government Bond Index – EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local CCY EMD), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Emerging Market Bond Index Global(EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index (CEMBI) (EM Corp), Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index (US High Yield),Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade (US IG Corp), Barclays US Capital Aggregate (US Agg), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index (Cmdty) and FTSEEPRA/NAREIT Developed REITs Index (Global REITs). 10-year correlations are based on monthly returns from 30/9/03 – 30/9/13, except for REITs as data wereunavailable prior <strong>to</strong> April 2006 and 3-year correlations from 30/9/10 – 30/9/13. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Interest Rates and Equities CorrelationCorrelations Between Monthly S<strong>to</strong>ck Returns and Interest Rate MovementsMonthly MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan and S&P500 returns, change in monthly 10-year US Treasury yield, rolling 2-year correlation0.80.8Asiaex-JapanUSO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourCorrelation Coefficient0.40.0-0.4Positivecorrelationbetween yieldmovements ands<strong>to</strong>ck returnsNegativecorrelationbetween yieldmovements ands<strong>to</strong>ck returns-0.80% 3% 6% 9%0.40.0-0.4-0.80% 5% 10% 15%10-year US Treasury Yield60Source: MSCI, US Treasury, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Returns are based on price index in USD terms only and do not include dividends. Data available since 1970 for S&P 500 and 1988 for MSCI AC Asiaex-Japan. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


United States: Treasury Yields and S&P 500S&P 500 and Benchmark US 2-year yieldsPeriods of tightening by <strong>the</strong> US Federal Reserve S&P 500 (Left) US 2-year yields (Right)Index2000%10%18009%16008%14007%12006%10005%8004%O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour6004002000'88 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '113%2%1%0%61Source: US Federal Reserve, Standard and Poor’s, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia."Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Rate Rise Impact on Different Income <strong>Asset</strong> ClassesTotal Return Impact in a Rising Rates Environment<strong>Asset</strong> classes, rolling 3-month average <strong>to</strong>tal return (USD), 1994-2013Sec<strong>to</strong>rs’ Relative Total Return Impact in a Rising Rates EnvironmentRolling 3-month average <strong>to</strong>tal return (USD) relative <strong>to</strong> MSCI AC World broad index, 1994-2013High Div. EM EquitiesHigh Div. Asia Pac. ex-<strong>JP</strong> Equities9.1%8.1%ITMaterialEnergy2.2%2.8%3.2%High Div. AC World Equities5.5%Con. Disc.1.5%High Div. DM EquitiesConvertible Bonds4.6%4.1%IndustrialsFinancialsTelecom-2.2%-0.5%1.1%US REITs3.8%Con. Stap.-2.8%O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourUS High Yield2.5%Asian Bonds (USD)1.4%EMD (USD)1.3%EMD (LCL)1.1%IG Corporate -0.7%US Aggregate -0.7%US 10-year Treasury -3.3%-6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9%HealthcareUtilities-3.7%-3.3%-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%Composition of MSCI High Dividend Equity IndicesDefensives Cyclicals FinancialsMSCI AC World 45.8% 37.8% 16.4%MSCI World (DM) 51.8% 36.5% 11.7%MSCI EM 22.9% 47.7% 29.4%MSCI Asia Pacificex-Japan22.0% 37.6% 40.4%62Source: Barclays, MSCI, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong>, BoA Merrill Lynch, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Left) Periods of rising US yields are defined as rolling 3-month periods when <strong>the</strong> US 10-year Treasury yields increased over 25bps from January 1994 <strong>to</strong> September 2013,data permitting. Returns are <strong>to</strong>tal returns in US dollar terms. <strong>Asset</strong> classes shown above include MSCI Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> High Dividend Index (Data since 2001), MSCI ACWorld High Dividend Index (Data since 1999), MSCI World High Dividend Index (Data since 1996), MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan High Dividend Index (Data since 1999),MSCI US REIT Index (Data since 1996), Barclays US Treasury (10-year) Bellwe<strong>the</strong>rs Index, Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index (Data since 2002), Barclays USInvestment Grade Credit Index, Barclays US Aggregative Index, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> EMBI Global Index, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> GBI-EM Broad Composite Index, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> JACI - AsiaCredit Index (Data since 1999) and BofA Merrill Lynch US Convertibles Index. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


REITs and ConvertiblesREITs’ Market CompositionCanadaAustralia & 4%New Zealand8%Asia13%Europe13%RoW1% Market Cap(USD Billions)US61%US 680Europe 144Asia 143Australia &New Zealand89Global Convertible Bonds IssuanceUSD billions1208040USEuropeAsia ex-JapanJapanO<strong>the</strong>rCanada 46Rest of012 World (RoW)1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2013YTDO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourReal Estate Net Operating Income (NOI) and US GDP15%10%5%0%-5%NOI Growth (YoY)GDP Growth(QoQ annualized)US Convertible Bonds and US EquitiesIndex, <strong>to</strong>tal return in USD, rebased 2002 = 100250200150100AnnualizedReturnCorrelation: 0.85AnnualizedVolatilityConvertibles 6.9% 10.8%Equities 5.2% 15.4%BoA Merrill LynchUS ConvertibleMSCI USA-10%'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '1350'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1363Source: BCA, BoA Merrill Lynch, MSCI, Bloomberg, FactSet, MacData, NCREIF, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Bot<strong>to</strong>m Left) NOI is lagged four quarters. GDP is smoo<strong>the</strong>d using a two-quarter average.Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Commodities: ReturnsO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour10-yrs('03 - '12)2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . 3Q '13 Ann.Me ta ls &Me ta ls &Coppe r Crude Oil Me ta ls Crude Oil Gold Coppe r Iron Ore Gold GoldIron OreMining (E)Mining (E)6 7 .8 % 3 6 .9 % 4 0 .5 % 5 3 .9 % 5 7 .2 % 5 . 8 % 14 0 . 2 % 4 2 .8 % 10 .1% 7 .1% 18 . 3 % 19 . 2 %Coppe r Crude Oil Coppe r Coppe rMe ta ls &Mining (E)Gold(E)Me ta lsGold(E)Crude Oil Iron Ore Iron Ore Coppe r4 7 .5 % 3 3 .6 % 3 9 .5 % 4 4 .0 % 5 0 .5 % - 2 4 .6 % 9 7 .5 % 3 2 .7 % 8 . 2 % 4 . 6 % 12 . 8 % 17 . 7 % .Ene rgy Me ta ls & Me ta ls & Ene rgyMe ta ls &Ene rgyGoldMe ta lsCmdty.Coppe rMe ta lsGold(E) Mining (E) Mining (E) (E)Mining (E)(E)(E)4 4 .0 % 2 5 .0 % 3 6 .8 % 4 1. 0 % 3 1. 2 % - 3 6 .6 % 9 0 .2 % 3 0 .2 % - 5 . 0 % 4 . 5 % 8 . 6 % 17 . 0 %Gold(E)Me ta lsGold(E)GoldGoldEne rgy(E)Crude Oil Gold Cmdty. Coppe r Coppe rMe ta ls &Mining (E)4 3 .3 % 2 3 .7 % 2 9 .3 % 2 3 .2 % 3 0 .9 % - 4 3 .4 % 7 7 .9 % 2 9 .6 % - 13 . 4 % 4 . 4 % 8 . 2 % 15 . 6 %Ene rgy(E)Me ta ls &Mining (E)Ene rgy(E)Ene rgy(E)Gold(E)Me ta ls Iron Ore Me ta lsGold(E)Me ta ls &Mining (E)2 5 .6 % 16 .5 % 2 8 .6 % 18 . 2 % 19 . 7 % - 4 9 .2 % 6 5 .9 % 2 3 .8 % - 17 . 4 % 2 . 3 % 7 . 7 % 12 . 2 %GoldGold Me ta ls &Ene rgy Ene rgyCmdty. Cmdty. Me ta lsCmdty. Crude OilIron OreCrude Oil(E)(E) Mining (E)(E) (E)2 2 .7 % 7 .6 % 2 4 .0 % 16 . 6 % 11. 1% - 5 3 .5 % 3 2 .5 % 2 2 .4 % - 18 . 6 % - 0 .1% 7 .1% 11.4 %Gold Gold Gold Crude Oil Coppe r Coppe rEne rgy(E)GoldCmdty. Coppe r Cmdty. Me ta ls19 .4 % 5 .5 % 17 .9 % 0 .0 % 5 .5 % - 5 4 .0 % 2 9 .9 % 16 . 7 % - 2 0 .8 % - 1. 1% 6 . 8 % 9 .1%GoldMe ta ls &GoldCrude OilCmdty. Cmdty. Me ta lsGold Crude Oil Me ta ls Crude Oil Crude Oil(E)Mining (E)(E)4 .2 % - 9 .5 % 17 .5 % - 2 . 7 % - 8 . 3 % - 5 6 .1% 2 4 .4 % 15 .1% - 2 1. 5 % - 7 .1% 6 . 0 % 8 . 3 %Note: Iron Ore data unavailable prior <strong>to</strong> 2009.Cmdty.Ene rgy(E)Me ta ls &Mining (E)Gold(E)Cmdty.Me ta lsEne rgy(E)Cmdty.18 . 7 % 9 .1% - 2 8 .3 % - 13 . 2 % 2 .1% 2 . 3 %Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Dow Jones, Standard and Poor’s, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(E) represents equity indices, while <strong>the</strong> rest represent spot price indices. Based on Crude Spot (WTI Cushing) (Crude Oil), LME Copper 3-Month Futures (Copper), Iron OreSpot (Iron Ore), Gold Spot (Gold), London Metal Exchange (LME) LMEX Metals Index (Metals), MSCI AC Metals and Mining Index (Metals & Mining (E)), MSCI AC Energy(Energy (E)), HSBC Global Mines Gold Mines Index (Gold (E)), and DJ UBS Commodity Index (Cmdty.). 10-yr data are used <strong>to</strong> calculate annualized returns (Ann.). Thesereturns reflect <strong>the</strong> period from 1/1/03 – 31/12/12, except for Iron Ore where returns reflect <strong>the</strong> period from 1/1/09 – 31/12/12 due <strong>to</strong> data availability.64Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Commodities: EnergyNatural Gas PriceUSD / MMBtu1612Net Imports as % of Total US Energy Consumption% of <strong>to</strong>tal energy consumption35%30%25%EIA Forecast84Average: USD4.0/MMBtu9/2013:USD3.6/MMBtu20%15%10%5%0 0%'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '121990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourShale Gas as % of Total US Natural Gas Production100%EIA Forecast75%O<strong>the</strong>r50%25%Shale Gas0%1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Source: EIA, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”Major Shale Gas Basins by CountryCountries outside EIA scopeCountries within EIA scopeAssessed basins withresource estimateAssessed basins withoutresource estimate(Top Left) Gas price based on NYMEX Natural Gas Futures: One million British <strong>the</strong>rmal units (MMBtu).65Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Commodities: Oil DemandShare of Total Petroleum Consumption% of global consumption in 1992 and 2012Africa, 3%MiddleEast, 5%Eurasia,12%AsiaPacific,23%Europe,22%NorthAmerica,30%1992Central &SouthAmerica,6%Oil ImportsNet imports (imports minus exports) as % of GDP, 2012-14.0%ThailandKoreaSingaporeTurkeyIndiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaJapanChinaIndonesiaBrazilAustraliaArgentina-0.8%-0.9%-4.5%9.4%6.9%6.6%5.4%5.3%4.2%3.3%2.9%2.3%1.3%0.7%0.6%MalaysiaVietnamMexicoRussia13.0%-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourAfrica, 4%MiddleEast, 9%Eurasia,5%AsiaPacific,33%Europe,17%NorthAmerica,26%2012 Annual Change in Oil ConsumptionMillion barrels per dayCentral &SouthAmerica,7%3.02.01.00.0-1.0EIA ForecastEM ex ChinaChinaG3O<strong>the</strong>rs'10 '11 '12 '13 '1466Source: EIA, IMF, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Left) Eurasia includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Es<strong>to</strong>nia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Commodities: GoldWorld Gold Official ReservesTotal holdings, thousand <strong>to</strong>nnes32% of foreign reserve% of foreign reserve14%Change in World Gold Reserve HoldingsQuarter-on-quarter change, <strong>to</strong>nnes6003028Total holdings12%10%8%4002000-2006/2013:98.4 <strong>to</strong>nnes*26'00 '03 '06 '09 '126%-400'00 '03 '06 '09 '12SPDR Gold TrustUSD Billions100Cumulative FlowUSD Bn40Gold PricesUSD / oz2,500O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour806040 NAV200'04 '06 '08 '10 '1230201002,0001,500Gold, Inflation adjusted1,000500Gold0'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10Source: World Gold Council, SPDR Gold Shares, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Left, Top Right) Gold reserves include gold deposits and, if appropriate, gold swapped.67* 98.4 <strong>to</strong>nnes represents 0.3% change from previous quarter.Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Global Inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ <strong>Asset</strong> Allocation by RegionSurveyed Retail Inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ PortfolioFixedIncome25%Equities42%CashandDeposits27%O<strong>the</strong>r6%FixedIncome14%CashandDeposits53%Equities29%O<strong>the</strong>r4%FixedIncome13%CashandDeposits55%Equities32%CashandDeposits77%FixedIncome13%Equities10%US Households European Households Developed Asia Households Emerging Asia HouseholdsInstitutional Inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ <strong>Asset</strong> Allocation by GeographyO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourO<strong>the</strong>r4%Asia8%Europe13%NorthAmerica75%North AmericaNorthAmerica20% Europe61%O<strong>the</strong>r6%Asia13%EuropeEurope5%NorthAmerica6%O<strong>the</strong>r4%AsiaAsia84%68Source: Ipreo, BNY Mellon, McKinsey Global Institute, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top) Surveyed retail inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ portfolio is based on McKinsey Global Institute’s “The emerging equity gap: Growth and stability in <strong>the</strong> new inves<strong>to</strong>rlandscape” survey. Developed Asia includes Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan. Emerging Asia includes India, Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. (Bot<strong>to</strong>m) Inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ <strong>Asset</strong> Allocation by Geography is based on BNY Mellon’s “Asia’s Evolving InvestmentLandscape – Considering Hong Kong, Mainland China and Singapore as Investment Sources” survey, which depicts <strong>the</strong> asset allocation pattern ofinstitutional clients around <strong>the</strong> world. Asian inves<strong>to</strong>r portfolio covers only Hong Kong, Singapore and Mainland China institutional inves<strong>to</strong>rs.Total may not sum <strong>to</strong> 100% due <strong>to</strong> rounding. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Real Return on Cash and Retirement Trends in AsiaAverage Annual Real Deposit RateBased on respective country’s deposit rate less year-on-year inflation6%2008 – 2013 YTD2000 – 20074%2%0%-2%-4%3.3%1.9%0.6%0.7%1.6%0.6%-0.1% -0.3%-0.1% 0.0%-1.0%-1.4%2.6% 2.6%-1.8%0.3%-3.2% -3.5%-6%Korea Japan Taiwan China Thailand Malaysia India Hong Kong SingaporeAgeing Population% of population over 6540%201020202030Preference on Benefit Allotment% of respondents Monthly Payments80%Lump Sum PaymentO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r Behaviour30%20%10%0%JapanHongKongTaiwan Korea Singapore China India60%40%20%0%Singapore Hong Kong Korea Taiwan China69Source: UN, CSIS – “The Future of Retirement in East Asia,” IMF, FactSet, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top) Inflation based on <strong>the</strong> IMF’s April 2013 World Economic Outlook. (Bot<strong>to</strong>m Right) Response <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> CSIS survey of non-retired respondents on<strong>the</strong>ir preference of how <strong>the</strong> benefit should be paid when <strong>the</strong>y retire. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


Fund FlowsO<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Asset</strong>s andInves<strong>to</strong>r BehaviourCumulative Flows in<strong>to</strong> S<strong>to</strong>ck & Bond FundsUSD Billions, includes both mutual funds and ETFs since 20032,0001,6001,200800400S<strong>to</strong>cksBonds8/2013:USD1,747bn8/2013:USD1,309bn0'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Cumulative Flows in<strong>to</strong> Asian S<strong>to</strong>ck MarketUSD Billions, monthly5004003002001000Asia* ex JapanJapan-100'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13Monthly U.S. and International Fund FlowsUSD Billions, difference between flows In<strong>to</strong> s<strong>to</strong>ck and bond funds7550250-25EquitiesExceedBonds8/2013: USD36bn-50Bonds-75 ExceedEquities-100'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Net Foreign Equity Flow in<strong>to</strong> Asian S<strong>to</strong>ck MarketUSD Billions, Net foreign equity flow1612840-40.213.5-0.8-0.9-0.41.19.91.95.45.63Q 2013YTD 2013-0.8-3.4India Indonesia Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand70Source: Bloomberg, Investment Company Institute, J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> “<strong>Guide</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Markets</strong> – Asia.”(Top Right) Data include flows through August 2013 and exclude ETFs. ICI data are subject <strong>to</strong> periodic revisions.*Countries include India, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/9/13.


J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> – Index DefinitionsAll indexes are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do notinclude fees or expenses.The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as <strong>the</strong> best single gauge of <strong>the</strong> US equities market. This world-renownedindex includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of <strong>the</strong> US economy.Although <strong>the</strong> S&P 500 Index focuses on <strong>the</strong> large-cap segment of <strong>the</strong> market, with approximately 75% coverageof US equities, it is also an ideal proxy for <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal market. An inves<strong>to</strong>r cannot invest directly in an index.The Tokyo S<strong>to</strong>ck Price Index ('TOPIX') is a composite index of all common s<strong>to</strong>cks listed on <strong>the</strong> First Section ofTokyo S<strong>to</strong>ck Exchange (TSE).The index is basically a measure of <strong>the</strong> changes in aggregate market value of TSEcommon s<strong>to</strong>cks. The base for <strong>the</strong> index is <strong>the</strong> aggregate market value of its component s<strong>to</strong>cks as of <strong>the</strong> close onJanuary 4, 1968. The aggregate market value is calculated by multiplying <strong>the</strong> number of listed shares of eachcomponent s<strong>to</strong>ck by its price and <strong>to</strong>taling <strong>the</strong> products derived <strong>the</strong>re from.The Bombay Exchange Sensitive Index (‘SENSEX), first compiled in 1986, was calculated on a "MarketCapitalization-Weighted" methodology of 30 component s<strong>to</strong>cks representing large, well-established and financiallysound companies across key sec<strong>to</strong>rs. The base year of SENSEX was taken as 1978-79. SENSEX <strong>to</strong>day is widelyreported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media. It is scientificallydesigned and is based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. Since September 1, 2003,SENSEX is being calculated on a free-float market capitalization methodology.The Korea Composite S<strong>to</strong>ck Price Index (‘KOSPI) is market capitalization based index on all common s<strong>to</strong>ckslisted on <strong>the</strong> S<strong>to</strong>ck Market Division of <strong>the</strong> Korea Exchange (KRX) and excludes preferred s<strong>to</strong>cks. The s<strong>to</strong>ck priceindex is calculated using <strong>the</strong> actual price traded on <strong>the</strong> market and not <strong>the</strong> “base price” used for marketmanagement such as establishment of price change limits. When no market price is available for issues that arenot being traded or have halted trading, <strong>the</strong> latest closing price is used. KOSPI was a assigned a base index of100 set <strong>to</strong> January 4, 1980.The China Shenzhen Composite Index is an actual market-cap weighted index that tracks <strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>ckperformance of all <strong>the</strong> A-share and B-share lists on Shenzhen S<strong>to</strong>ck Exchange. The index was developed on April3, 1991 with a base price of 100.The MSCI® EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Net Index is recognized as <strong>the</strong> pre-eminent benchmark in <strong>the</strong>United States <strong>to</strong> measure international equity performance. It comprises 21 MSCI country indexes, representing<strong>the</strong> developed markets outside of North America.The MSCI Emerging <strong>Markets</strong> Index SM is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed <strong>to</strong>measure equity market performance in <strong>the</strong> global emerging markets. As of June 2007, <strong>the</strong> MSCI Emerging<strong>Markets</strong> Index consisted of <strong>the</strong> following 25 emerging market country indices: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China,Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco,Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted indexthat is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. As of June 2009<strong>the</strong> MSCI ACWI consisted of 45 country indices comprising 23 developed and 22 emerging market countryindices.The following MSCI Total Return Indices SM are calculated with gross dividends:This series approximates <strong>the</strong> maximum possible dividend reinvestment. The amount reinvested is <strong>the</strong> dividenddistributed <strong>to</strong> individuals resident in <strong>the</strong> country of <strong>the</strong> company, but does not include tax credits.The MSCI Europe Index SM is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed <strong>to</strong> measuredeveloped market equity performance in Europe. As of June 2007, <strong>the</strong> MSCI Europe Index consisted of <strong>the</strong>following 16 developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,Ireland, Italy, <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom.The MSCI Pacific Index SM is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed <strong>to</strong> measure equitymarket performance in <strong>the</strong> Pacific region. As of June 2007, <strong>the</strong> MSCI Pacific Index consisted of <strong>the</strong> following 5Developed Market countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, and Singapore.The MSCI Europe ex UK Index SM is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed <strong>to</strong>measure <strong>the</strong> equity market performance of <strong>the</strong> developed markets in Europe, excluding <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom. TheMSCI Europe ex UK Index consists of <strong>the</strong> following 15 developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium,Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,and Switzerland.The MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index SM is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed <strong>to</strong>measure equity market performance in <strong>the</strong> Pacific region, excluding Japan. As of June 2007, <strong>the</strong> MSCI PacificIndex consisted of <strong>the</strong> following 4 Developed Market countries: Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, andSingapore.The MSCI USA Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong> USmarket. With 586 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers approximately 84% of <strong>the</strong> free float-adjusted market capitalizationin <strong>the</strong> US. The MSCI USA Index was launched on Dec ember 31, 1969.The MSCI China Index SM captures large and mid cap representation across China H shares, B shares, Red chipsand P chips. With 148 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers about 84% of this China equity universe. The MSCI ChinaIndex was launched on December 31, 1992.The MSCI Indonesia Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong>Indonesian market. With 25 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers about 84% of <strong>the</strong> Indonesian equity universe. The MSCIIndonesia Index was launched on December 31, 1990.The MSCI Korea Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong>South Korean market. With 105 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers about 84% of <strong>the</strong> Korean equity universe. The MSCIKorea Index was launched on December 31, 1989.The MSCI India Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong> Indianmarket. With 71 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers about 84% of <strong>the</strong> Indian equity universe. The MSCI India Index waslaunched on December 31, 1993.The MSCI Japan Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong>Japan market. With 315 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers approximately 84% of <strong>the</strong> free float-adjusted marketcapitalization in Japan. The MSCI Japan Index was launched on December 31, 1969.The MSCI Hong Kong Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong>Hong Kong market. With 42 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers approximately 84% of <strong>the</strong> free float-adjusted marketcapitalization of <strong>the</strong> Hong Kong equity universe. The MSCI Hong Kong Index was launched on December 31,1972.The MSCI Taiwan Index SM is designed <strong>to</strong> measure <strong>the</strong> performance of <strong>the</strong> large and mid cap segments of <strong>the</strong>Taiwan market. With 113 constituents, <strong>the</strong> index covers approximately 84% of <strong>the</strong> free float-adjusted marketcapitalization in Taiwan. The MSCI Taiwan Index was launched on December 31, 1989.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is <strong>the</strong> underlying commodity for <strong>the</strong> New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futurescontracts.The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is composed of futures contracts on physical commodities andrepresents nineteen separate commodities traded on US exchanges, with <strong>the</strong> exception of aluminum, nickel, andzinc.The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Subindexes represent commodity groups and sec<strong>to</strong>rs, as well as singlecommodities, that make up <strong>the</strong> Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. The subindexes track exchange-traded futuresof physical commodities, and <strong>the</strong> commodity groups and sec<strong>to</strong>rs, like in <strong>the</strong> case of <strong>the</strong> broad index, are weighted<strong>to</strong> account for economic significance and market liquidity. The different subindexes are Energy, Lives<strong>to</strong>ck, Grains,Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals.71


J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> – Index Definitions, Risks and DisclosuresPrice <strong>to</strong> forward earnings is a measure of <strong>the</strong> price-<strong>to</strong>-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings. Price <strong>to</strong>book value compares a s<strong>to</strong>ck's market value <strong>to</strong> its book value. Price <strong>to</strong> cash flow is a measure of <strong>the</strong> market'sexpectations of a firm's future financial health. Price <strong>to</strong> dividends is <strong>the</strong> ratio of <strong>the</strong> price of a share on a s<strong>to</strong>ckexchange <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> dividends per share paid in <strong>the</strong> previous year, used as a measure of a company's potential asan investment.Bonds are subject <strong>to</strong> interest rate risks. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.The price of equity securities may rise, or fall because of changes in <strong>the</strong> broad market or changes in acompany’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. These price movements may result fromfac<strong>to</strong>rs affecting individual companies, sec<strong>to</strong>rs or industries, or <strong>the</strong> securities market as a whole, such aschanges in economic or political conditions. Equity securities are subject <strong>to</strong> “s<strong>to</strong>ck market risk” meaning thats<strong>to</strong>ck prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.Small-capitalization investing typically carries more risk than investing in well-established "blue-chip"companies since smaller companies generally have a higher risk of failure. His<strong>to</strong>rically, smaller companies's<strong>to</strong>ck has experienced a greater degree of market volatility than <strong>the</strong> average s<strong>to</strong>ck.Mid-capitalization investing typically carries more risk than investing in well-established "blue-chip" companies.His<strong>to</strong>rically, mid-cap companies' s<strong>to</strong>ck has experienced a greater degree of market volatility than <strong>the</strong> averages<strong>to</strong>ck.Real estate investments may be subject <strong>to</strong> a higher degree of market risk because of concentration in aspecific industry, sec<strong>to</strong>r or geographical sec<strong>to</strong>r. Real estate investments may be subject <strong>to</strong> risks including, butnot limited <strong>to</strong>, declines in <strong>the</strong> value of real estate, risks related <strong>to</strong> general and economic conditions, changes in<strong>the</strong> value of <strong>the</strong> underlying property owned by <strong>the</strong> trust and defaults by borrower.International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchangerates and differences in accounting and taxation policies can raise or lower returns. Also, some markets maynot be as politically and economically stable as o<strong>the</strong>r nations. Investments in emerging markets can be morevolatile. The normal risks of international investing are heightened when investing in emerging markets. Inaddition, <strong>the</strong> small size of securities markets and <strong>the</strong> low trading volume may lead <strong>to</strong> a lack of liquidity, whichleads <strong>to</strong> increased volatility. Also, emerging markets may not provide adequate legal protection for private orforeign investment or private property.Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if<strong>the</strong> instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected bychanges in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or fac<strong>to</strong>rs affectinga particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, wea<strong>the</strong>r, lives<strong>to</strong>ck disease, embargoes, tariffs andinternational economic, political and regula<strong>to</strong>ry developments. Use of leveraged commodity-linked derivativescreates an opportunity for increased return but, at <strong>the</strong> same time, creates <strong>the</strong> possibility for greater loss.Derivatives may be riskier than o<strong>the</strong>r types of investments because <strong>the</strong>y may be more sensitive <strong>to</strong> changes ineconomic or market conditions than o<strong>the</strong>r types of investments and could result in losses that significantlyexceed <strong>the</strong> original investment. The use of derivatives may not be successful, resulting in investment losses,and <strong>the</strong> cost of such strategies may reduce investment returns.There is no guarantee that <strong>the</strong> use of long and short positions will succeed in limiting an inves<strong>to</strong>r's exposure<strong>to</strong> domestic s<strong>to</strong>ck market movements, capitalization, sec<strong>to</strong>r swings or o<strong>the</strong>r risk fac<strong>to</strong>rs. Investing using longand short selling strategies may have higher portfolio turnover rates. Short selling involves certain risks,including additional costs associated with covering short positions and a possibility of unlimited loss on certainshort sale positions.72


J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> – Risks and DisclosuresThe Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference <strong>to</strong> products. Designed as a <strong>to</strong>ol <strong>to</strong> help clients understand <strong>the</strong> markets and support investmentdecision-making, <strong>the</strong> program explores <strong>the</strong> implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.The views contained herein are not <strong>to</strong> be taken as an advice or recommendation <strong>to</strong> buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor it is commitment from J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> or any of its subsidiaries (collectivelyidentified as "<strong>JP</strong>MAM" ) <strong>to</strong> participate in any of <strong>the</strong> transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions andcurrent market conditions and are subject <strong>to</strong> change without previous notice. All information presented herein is considered <strong>to</strong> be accurate at <strong>the</strong> time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of anyerror or omission is accepted. This material should not be relied upon by you in evaluating <strong>the</strong> merits of investing in any securities or products mentioned herein. In addition, <strong>the</strong> Inves<strong>to</strong>r should make an independent assessment of <strong>the</strong>legal, regula<strong>to</strong>ry, tax, credit, and accounting and determine, <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r with <strong>the</strong>ir own professional advisers if any of <strong>the</strong> investments mentioned herein are suitable <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir personal goals. Inves<strong>to</strong>rs should ensure that <strong>the</strong>y obtain allavailable relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that <strong>the</strong> value of investments and <strong>the</strong> income from <strong>the</strong>m may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and inves<strong>to</strong>rs maynot get back <strong>the</strong> full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide <strong>to</strong> future performance. Exchange rate variations may cause <strong>the</strong> value of investments <strong>to</strong> increase or decrease. Investments in smallercompanies may involve a higher degree of risk as <strong>the</strong>y are usually more sensitive <strong>to</strong> market movements. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile and <strong>the</strong>refore <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>to</strong> your capital could be greater. Fur<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong>economic and political situations in emerging markets may be more volatile than in established economies and <strong>the</strong>se may adversely influence <strong>the</strong> value of investments made. The information presented herein is for <strong>the</strong> strict use of <strong>the</strong>recipient who have requested such information and it is not for dissemination <strong>to</strong> any o<strong>the</strong>r third parties without <strong>the</strong> explicit consent of J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong>. These views do not necessarily reflect <strong>the</strong> opinions of any o<strong>the</strong>rfirm or o<strong>the</strong>r division of <strong>the</strong> <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> Chase & Co. group.This communication is for intended recipients only and may only be forwarded or presented <strong>to</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r persons in compliance with local law and regulations which shall be <strong>the</strong> intended recipients’ sole responsibility. Investment involvesrisks. 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Results shown are not meant <strong>to</strong> berepresentative of actual investment results.J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> is <strong>the</strong> brand for <strong>the</strong> asset management business of <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. This communication is issued by <strong>the</strong> following entities: in Brazil by Banco J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> S.A.(Brazil) which is regulated by The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) and Brazilian Central Bank (Bacen ); in <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulatedby <strong>the</strong> Financial Conduct Authority (FCA); in o<strong>the</strong>r EU jurisdictions by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (Europe) S.à r.l.; in Switzerland by J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> (Suisse) SA, which is regulated by <strong>the</strong> Swiss Financial Market Supervisory AuthorityFINMA; in Hong Kong by JF <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Limited, <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> Funds (Asia) Limited or <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Real <strong>Asset</strong>s (Asia) Limited, all of which are regulated by <strong>the</strong> Securities and Futures Commission; in India by<strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> India Private Limited which is regulated by <strong>the</strong> Securities & Exchange Board of India; in Singapore by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (Singapore) Limited or <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Real <strong>Asset</strong>s(Singapore) Pte. Ltd., both are regulated by <strong>the</strong> Monetary Authority of Singapore; in Taiwan by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (Taiwan) Limited or <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> Funds (Taiwan) Limited, both are regulated by <strong>the</strong> Financial SupervisoryCommission; in Japan by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (Japan) Limited which is a member of <strong>the</strong> Investment Trusts Association, Japan, <strong>the</strong> Japan Investment Advisers Association and <strong>the</strong> Japan Securities Dealers Association, andis regulated by <strong>the</strong> Financial Services Agency (registration number “Kan<strong>to</strong> Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 330”); in Korea by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (Korea) Company Limited which is regulated by <strong>the</strong>Financial Services Commission (without insurance by Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation) and in Australia <strong>to</strong> wholesale clients only as defined in section 761A and 761G of <strong>the</strong> Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong><strong>Management</strong> (Australia) Limited (ABN 55143832080) (AFSL 376919) which is regulated by <strong>the</strong> Australian Securities and Investments Commission; in Canada by <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> (Canada) Inc.; and in <strong>the</strong> United Statesby J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Investment <strong>Management</strong> Inc., or J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> Distribution Services , Inc., member FINRA SIPC.EMEA Recipients: You should note that if you contact J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> by telephone those lines may be recorded and moni<strong>to</strong>red for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that informationand data from communications with you will be collected, s<strong>to</strong>red and processed by J.P. <strong>Morgan</strong> <strong>Asset</strong> <strong>Management</strong> in accordance with <strong>the</strong> EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through <strong>the</strong> following websitehttp://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy.© 2013 <strong>JP</strong><strong>Morgan</strong> Chase & Co.Unless o<strong>the</strong>rwise stated, all data are as of September 30, 2013.Prepared by: David Kelly, Tai Hui, Geoff Lewis, Yoshinori Shigemi, Grace Tam, Ian Hui, Ben Luk and Anthony TsoiMI-GTMASIA-E Oc<strong>to</strong>ber 2013Brazilian recipients:73

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