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The European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI)Paving the Way for theMediterranean Solar PlanENPI 2010/248-486Horizontal Tasks A&B:Activities 3.5&3.6Power System 2020: MoroccoApril 2012This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. Thecontents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the Consortium and can in noway be taken to reflect the views of the European UnionThis project is funded byThe European UnionA project implemented by theConsortium MVV decon/ENEA/RTE-I/Terna/Sonelgaz[Text eingeben] [Text eingeben] [Text eingeben]

1. SCOPE OF THE REPORTThe present reports aims to answer to several questions 2 of Horizontal Task A: Mediterranean Grid andEuropean Backbone Evaluation and of Horizontal Task B: Key issues supporting MSP Master Planimplementation.Namely it deals with :Sub-task A.1: assess the state of play of the electrical infrastructures• Present situation of the generation mix and plans of development at year 2020 (including RES)• Present situation of interconnection capability and plans of development (business as usual).Sub-task A.2: Assess the access to the network and the possible congestion• Potential of the country for power export (in relationship only to the generation capacity)Sub-Task B.1: Definition of the adequacy of generation evolution• Evaluation of the adequacy based on energy not supplied due to lack of capacity or due to lackof energy2. METHODOLOGY.• Collection 3 of information on the existing (year 2010) and planned (year 2020) power systems ofthe MP countries by means of: a questionnaire, requests by mail or phone, visit to the country;request of plans for power system expansion at year 2020.• Re-ordering , comparison with other sources, critical& statistical analysis and modelling of thedata and information collected,in order to verify their co-erence and to adapt to the calculationsoftware for adequacy evaluation• Probabilistic evaluation of the adequacy of the generation mix planned at 2020, analysis ofresults, suggestions.The calculations were repeated under different assumptions, to arrive at asound result• Probabilistic evaluation of the power and annual energy that is potentially available for export atyear 2020.Preliminary indication (parameter) of the energy cost.• First estimate of export capability based on the planned new interconnections.2 The INCEPTION REPORT foresees a number of intermediate reports , to be produced under Task A and Task B, dealing with dataand studies , adequacy and interconnection capability of power systems, ”needs for power transits, possible congestions andconstraints, needs for refurbishment and reinforcement constraints for cross-border electricity transfer, etc . The present report includesmany of these results in a unique report, in order to put in evidence the logic of the study: from the data analysis to the final evaluationof potential and limits for export. Should it be required, splitting in several reports will be easy.3 Most of the activity on this subject was made by RTE experts, under activity 3.1.4 .Experts in charge of horizontal task A and B haveactively cooperated in the preparation of the questionnaire, and in the continous cecking of the data that were progressively madeavailsable by MP countries.3

3. ASSESSMENT OF THE PRESENT SITUATION AND OF THE ENVISAGED DEVELOPMENTS3.1 GENERATION AND DEMAND : main data for the CountryThe country report 4 (Activity 3.1.4) provides the general information reported in Table 3.1Table 3.1MOROCCOGENERATIONInstalled Capacity(MW)Annual generation(GWh)Installed Capacity(MW)Thermal: 4353 183508660• Coal 1785 108664105• Fuel / Diesel 600/203 3074 1190• Gas Turbine / GCC 915/850 4410 3365Hydro: 1 770 (464 pumping) 3 630 (163) 2290Renewable: 241 8114011• Wind 221 659 1991• Solar 20 (CSP) 1 152 2020• Other 0 0 0TOTAL 6364 22 790 14961DEMAND Peak load Annual consumption Peak load(Gwh)TOTAL 4 790 MW 23 705 8 730 MWIMPORTS (**) 4583EXPORTS (**) 643Total system losses 11,3 % (total losses) 3025(**) Import from Spain and balance with AlgeriaPeak at 2020: Country report gives 14883 (at 2010 considered 6336 MW instead of 6364 )year 2010 year 2020(1) 13 MW as PV installed capacity are not connected to the national grid, it supplies 51 559 consumersAnnual generation(GWh)Annual consumption(Gwh)3.2 Composition of the Thermal Generating System at year 2010 and 2020From the circulated questionnaire and from other documents made available, the thermal generating systemof Morocco at year 2020 was defined .It consists of 17 Power plants existing at 2010 for a total of 4,350 MWof installed capacity, and of 6 new power plant (see table 3.2) to be installed from 2011 to 2020, for anadditional capacity of 4317 MW. The complete list of the 23 plants and of the main characteristics of theirgenerating units, for a total of 8,860 MW, is given in Table 3.3 below.Table 3.2Table 3.2 Additional (2011-2020) Thermal Capacitydate ofCoal 2320 CommissioningSafi - "clean coal" 660 2015Safi - "clean coal" 660 2016Jorf Lasfar 700 2013/2014Jerrada 300 2015Gas 16004 Cycles combinés 1 600,0 2017-2020Fuel Oil 387Kenitra 315 2012Tiznit 72 2012Total 43074 COUNTRY REPORT MOROCCO (RTE Hantouche) version ………4

Table 3.33.2 Thermal Generation: main characteristics of the generating unitsName of Power PlantTotalinstalledcapacity(MW)Type ofUnitNumberof unitsMax netcapacity ofeach Unit(MW)probabilityof forcedoutage(%)days/yr ofplannedmaintenanceType ofFuelMOHAMMEDIA TAG 300 GT 3 95 7% 15 OilMOHAMMEDIA TAG 90 GT 3 30 7% 15 OilTIT MELLIL TAG 180 GT 6 30 7% 15 OilTETOUAN 33 TAG 99 GT 3 30 7% 15 OilAGADIR TAG 40 GT 2 20 7% 15 OilTANGER TAG 40 GT 2 20 7% 15 OilTETOUAN 20 TAG 40 GT 2 20 7% 15 OilLAAYOUNE TAG 90 GT 3 30 7% 15 OilJERADA 159 ST 3 48 20% 45 CoalMOHAMMEDIA 300 ST 2 140 10% 30 OilMOHAMMEDIA 300 ST 2 140 10% 40 CoalKENITRA 300 ST 4 65 5% 30 OilJORF LASFAR 1320 ST 4 310 10% 20 CoalTAHADDART 400 CCGT 1 380 3% 21 NGAIN BENI MATHA 450 CCGT 3 150 184 NGTANTAN Diesel 147 Diesel 7 16,7 7% 15 OilLAAYOUNE Diesel 21 Diesel 3 7 7% 15 OilTiznit Diesel 72 Diesel 4 16,7 7% 15 OilJORF LASFAR V et VI (3) 700 ST 2 330 10% 20 CoalKENITRA TAG 315 GT 3 95 7% 15 OilSAFI I et II (3) 1320 ST 2 660 8% 25 CoalJERRADA (2) 300 ST 1 300 10% 20 CoalCYCLE CONBINE 1600 CCGT 4 380 3% 21 NGThe mix at 2020, includes therefore 4100 MW of Steam units fueled by coal for base duty, 2450 MW ofCombined Cycle fueled by NG as intermediate units, and about 1200 GT for peak services. In addition 600MW of steam units fueled by oil and 240 MW of Diesel units3.3 Hydro Power plantMorocco is relatively rich of hydro resources, as compared to the remaining Magreb Countries:The existing installed capacity of 1770 MW (of which 440 MW are pumped storage) has supplied 3600 TWhin 2010 with the distribution along the year shown Fig 3.1 for year 2010. The time-of-day use of Hydrogeneration is mainly for peak-shaving purposes, as shown in Fig3.2 from ref i4Fig 3.1 Hydro production per monthHydro (GWh/month)80060040020001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 125

Fig 3.2From 2011 to 2020 the installation of additional 520 MW is planned , for a total of 2,290 MW (and 4,650GWh/yr)3.5 Wind GenerationMorocco has an excellent wind potential mainly in the North and in the South and many locations, generallyon the coast, have favorable conditions for the installation of Wind Power Plant. Existing Wind farm (seeTable 3.4) confirm high values of load factor. In 2010 an installed capacity of 231 MW produced 659 GWh,equivalent to 2,853 hours/yr of operation at full capacity.and a total installed capacity of 2000 MW is plannedat year 2020 , with energy production of 6,000 GWh (3,000 hrs/yr).4 Table 3.4 existing wind farmsInstalledCapacityAnnualProductionAnnual Hoursof Utilizationdate ofcommissioningMW GWh/yr Hours/yr yearPark Abdelkhalak Torres(40 km east of Tangier ) 50,4 226 4484 Aug.2000Experimental Park: 3,5 14,5 4143 Oct 2000Park Essaouira (15 kM south of Essaouira) 60 200 3333 2007Park Tanger 140Park Lafarge (10 MW in 2006 and 22MW in 2011) 32 2006/2011The analysis of the Cronological hourly production in 2010 (see Annex) of the wind farms ONE and CEDevidences a rather regular trend of the monthly energy productions (fig 3.4a) and during the time of day(fig3.4b).Fig 3.4 Morocco 2010 :a-Monthly Wind Generation (in p.u. of yearly production) .b-hourly generation in Januaryand June (average hourly value of the 31 days of the month, in p.u of installed capacity)0.120.10.080.060.040.020.500.400.300.200.10january(avrg)July(avrg.)0J…F…M…A…M…J…J…A…S…O…N…D…0.001 4 7 10 13 16 19 226

3.6 Solar GenerationAt present, solar generation of electricity in Morocco is scarce: the 54 kW photovoltaic Tit-Mellil plant(inaugurated in 2007) and the 20 MW solar thermal plant associated to the combined cycle Ain Beni Mathar(commissioned in 2009, for a total combined capacity of 472 MW). In the future, Morocco has an ambitiousprogram for solar electricity generation, mainly from installations working on the basis of concentrated solarpower (CSP) 5 . A total installed capacity of 2000 MW (4500 GWh/yr) is anticipated at year 2020.At the time of preparing this draft no precise information is available on the actual shape and amount of thesolar production curves, both of the PV and CSP type. Request has been made to provide hourly productionof the Tit-Mellil plant.3.7 Load characteristicsThe main characteristics of the load demand- as resulting from the questionnaire- are shown in table 3.5Table 3.5 Peak and annual electricity demandTab3.6.1 Main characteristics of the load year 2010 year 2020Annual load peak (MW) at year 2010 4790 8730Annual energy demand (GWh)* 26471,13 49890Annual export (GWh) at year 2010 643,23Annual import (MWh) at year 2010 4582,69(*energy demand = gross generation-auxiliary consumption-net export)Shape of the load demand : the hourly values of the demand of 2010 (8760 values) were analysed:• Both monthly energy and peak have their maximum in August (fig 3.5 a, b)• The daily diagrams have a peak in the evening, both in winter ans summer (fig 3.6)Fig 3.5a and b:monthly energy (p.u.)0.150000.100000.050000.000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121.2001.0000.8000.6000.4000.200-Max peak(p.u)Min Peak(p.u)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec5 In November 2009 the government announced a most ambitious programme for renewable energy, known as the IntegratedSolar Energy Generation Project. The essence of the project is a proposal to generate electricity from installations working on thebasis of concentrated solar power (CSP). The aim of the CSP component is an installed capacity of CSP of 2,000 MW by 2019 on5 sites covering 10,000 hectares. The investment includes 3x500 MW plants and single plants of 100 MW and 400 MW.; thecapacity created would be equal to 38% of the current total installed capacity in Morocco. The generation from these plants wouldbe 4,500 GWh per year, corresponding to 18% of the current annual generation. The cost, as estimated in the solar plan, would be70 billion Moroccan Dirhams (9 billion US dollars). The schedule is demanding; the first plant is to be commissioned in 2015 andthe final component by the end of 2019. It is envisaged that the programme would save approximately 1 million toe per year, with avalue at present prices of about $ 500 million dollars and would save about 3.7 billion tonnes of CO 2 emissions each year.7

10.80.60.40.2Jan 2001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Fig 3.6 Daily Diagrams have an evening peak both in Winter and Summer4. BASIC MODELS AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR YEAR 2020As described before, the adequacy of each individual country generation system is assessed inprobabilistic way by using a computing tool based on Monte Carlo simulation technique and speciallytailored for the analysis of generation systems that include renewable intermittent energy sources asSolar and Wind.The analysis is developed on a yearly basis and provides both the adequacy indexes,such as theEENS (expected Energy Not Supplied) and the annual expected utilization of the various types ofgeneration : namely their running hours per year and expected annual fuel cost (this last strictlydepending on the assumed values of the primary energy and on the efficiency of power plants).In the followings, the main modeling assumptions are described for the case of Morocco, for which theCountry Manager provided a quite complete set of data, partly through the answers to the Questionnaireand partly through additional documents and dedicated questions4.1 Thermal generationDifferent types of thermal units have been considered according to the information provided by theQuestionnaire. Generating units of the same type (size, primary fuel, technology) and location have beengrouped in a unique group but individually modeled. For each thermal unit the following parameters aretaken into account:• Maximum output, net of auxiliary services consumption• Forced outage probability• Average duration of planned maintenance• Production costs (€/MWh) and relevant merit order• Running reserve margin (assumed equal to 3% of the maximun net output)The annual maintenance plan of all conventional units is automatically assessed beforehand by using asearch algorithm procedure whose goal is to obtain a reserve margin along the year which is as uniformas possible.The production costs have been calculated according the thermal efficiency factor provided by theCountry and an assumption on primary fuel costs which is consistent with the one adopted for otherMediterranean countries involved in the Project 6 .The commitment of thermal units to cope with the hourly demand is based on the above calculated meritorder.On the basis of these assumptions, the probabilistic simulation provides , for each hour of the year, thecumulated curve of the available thermal capacity .For the purpose of presentation of results, generating units of the same type (size, primary fuel,technology) and have been grouped in a unique equivalent power plant.6 Namely: NG (13 US$/MMBTU); Coal (100 US$/to); HFO ( 480 US$/ton); LFO(660 US$/Ton)8

4.2 Hydro generationFor the year 2020, hydro production is deterministically modeled by accounting for:• an increase of hydro power capacity of 520 MW until 2020, with the same global capacity factoras per 2010. This means: Total installed capacity: 2,290 MW; Annual generation: 4,650 GWh• The same monthly production, in p.u. of the annual value, as per year 2010 (see fig. 3.1)The shapes of hydro daily productions have been assumed to be different from the ones of shown in Fig3.2, taken from the ONE document “Résultats d’éxploitation du système électrique annèe 2010”. This ismainly because at the year 2020 there will be an important average solar production (from severalhundreds of MW up to 2000 MW) during the central hours of the day. Therefore it results useful to havea lower contribution of hydro energy in the central hours of the day, for concentrating hydro productionin the hours of the evening peak. (trying to levelize the thermal generation in the various hours ofthe day. In any case both power and energy constraints of the hydro power system are respected.4.3 Wind GenerationMorocco provided the hourly output (8,760 figures) of 2010 installed wind capacity which is characterizedby a capacity factor of some 32.1 %. At year 2020 the capacity factor of wind farms is expected to be abit higher (34.2 %). Consequently the average profile of wind farms production in p.u. of the 2020 Windfarm capacity has been modified. This profile enables to obtain a probability distribution of the actualoutput of Wind farms on seasonal basis (winter from October to March and summer from April toSeptember) from which the Wind production in a given hour is drawn using Monte Carlo technique.• To summarise at the year 2020 it has been assumed:Total installed Capacity : 2000 MW• Annual energy production (average value) :6003 GWh4.4 Solar generationThe hourly output profile of already existing solar power plant (20 MW CSP) has been not providedthrough the filled Questionnaire received from Morocco. Therefore two typical daily generation curves(one per season) have been adopted according to the variation of solar radiation on 1 m 2 horizontalsurface during the 24 hours: the radiation is practically nil from 5 pm to 7 am (14 hours) and from 8 pm to6 am (10 hours) in winter and in summer respectively, while it has a sinusoidal shape during day lighthours. The absolute values changes depending on season.A randomly distributed attenuation factor has been accounted for to simulate the effect of variablecloudiness. Its values and range width depend on season too.To summarize:• Total installed Capacity:2000 MW• Annual energy production (average value): 4484 GWh• Daily production according to a theoretical sinusoidal shape.4.5 LoadThe load variability along the year is modeled by means of a set of 8760 hourly sequential figures (fromhour 1 of January 1 st to hour 24 of December 31 st ). The data received are relevant to the year 2010. Thesame shape has been adopted for year 2020, which is obviously referred to the corresponding peakLoad value Neither short-term nor long-term randomness have been modeled.To summarize:• Peak : 8,730 MW• Annual energy: 50,637• Hourly values: same p.u of peak values as for year 20109

5. MAIN RESULTS OF THE YEARLY SIMULATIONThe following Table 5.1 summarises the main assumptions and results of the probabilistic simulation ofthe power system at year 2020.Table 5.1 Results of annual simulation: Adequacy index (ENS) and energy production by type ofunitsANNUAANNUALGENERATION CAPACITY (MW)L LOADPEAKLOAD AND POWERENERGLOADTHERMASYSTEMYHYDRO SOLAR WIND TOTAL(MW)LCHARACTERISTICS(GWh)Yearly generation8.730 50.637 8.178 2.290 2.000 2.001 14.469ENERGYNOTSUPPLIEDTOTALTHERMALPRODUCED ENERGYHYDRO SOLAR WINDGWh/yr 2,991 50.637 36.005 4.772 3.858 6.000P.U. of Load EnergyDemand5,907E-05 1 0,711 0,094 0,076 0,1185.1 ADEQUACY OF THE GENERATING SYSTEM:The annual value of Energy Not Supplied (ENS) due to lack of available capacity is equal to 2.991 GWh,corresponding to 0,00006 in p.u. of the total load delivered. Usually a system is considered adequatewhen ENS is lower than 1/10000, and therefore the 2020 Morocco power system results to be fairlyadequate, and the need of an increase in the installed capacity at 2020 is not envisaged.5.2 ANALYSIS OF SYSTEM OPERATION (IN VIEW OF POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT)In addition to evaluating ENS, the simulation provides a series of information 7 on the power systemoperation:5.2.1 According to the assumptions made, the total annual generation resulting from the simulation isassured by thermal units for about 71%, by Hydro 9%, by Solar 8,%,and by Wind 12%. Fig. 6.1shows the load duration curve and the cumulative production curve by different generationtechnologies.5.2.2 Use of thermal Generation: According to the merit order assumed, the largest share (77 %)ofannual production (see table 5.2) is by steam units fired by coal. They show an equivalentutilization of about 7,000 hrs/yr, while Combined Cycles (22 % of total T.P.) are used forintermediate duty(3,400 hours/yr). Futhermore Fig. 6.1 shows that CCGT, Steam HFO fired andGT units have wide room for an increase of their energy production (of course by respectingpower capacity limitations) thus confirmig that adequacy is good as to the risk of lack of energy.7 These results should not be considered as detailed as those that can be obtained by using more sophisticated programsdevoted to the simulation of the annual operation , with more data characterizing the power system and relevant units ( theplannig purpose and time schedule of the project excluded this option).There are however general aspects that the simulationhas evidentiated (see fig 6.1,2,3)and that can be cosidered of general validity.10

Table 5.2 Results of the annual simulation: use of thermal unitsTHERMALGENERATIONsubdivided by typeSteam(Coal)Steam(HFO)CombinedCycle(NG)GasTurbines(DO)DieselEngine(DO)TotalthermalgenerationMax net output (MW) 3.944 540 2.350 1.140 204 8.178Annual production (GWh) 27.605 256 8.011 82 51 36.005Annual production (p.u.) 0,767 0,007 0,222 0,002 0,001 1,000Yearly utilisation (hrs/yr) 6.999 475 3.409 72 248___5.2.3 Use of Solar PV and Wind generation :the hourly equence of generated power is imposedby the respective sources (the case of CSP - concentrated solar production- was not examined)5.2.4 Control requirements: the presence of a large share of not-dispatchable generation, such aswind and PV , will impose severe regulation duty to the thermal and hydro. The simulation adopteddoes not consider these control problemsFig 6.1: Annual load and generation duration curveFig. 6.2: Average hourly production curve of winter working day11

Fig. 6.3: Average hourly production curve of summer working day6 POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT6.1 Aim of the analysisThe final scope of Task A consists in assessing the techno-economical potentiality for Import/exportamong the MP countries and with European countries and in defining the relevant network constraintsand reinforcements,that limit or permit these exchanges.To this purpouse, the first step to be undertaken consists in investigating the technical and economicalaspects relevant to a potential export from a given MSP Country Partner, independently from thedestination of power and energy.A model of a flat power export during the whole year has been implemented, by adding to each hourly8760 values of the internal load a constant additional demand in MW.This scenario of export is fairly simple but suitable to provide useful information, in particular as itconcerns the impact of the power export on the country system adequacy, on its annualized generationcosts (Mn€/yr) and on the average and marginal fuel costs (€/MWh) of the energy to be exported fromthe national system under analysis.6.2 Assumptions and resultsIn the case of Morocco two export scenarios have been considered, 200 MW and 500 MW, whichrepresent 2.3 % and 5.7 % of 2020 annual peak load respectively. The corresponding exported energyvolumes amount to 3.5% and 8.6% of the total energy demand of Morocco at year 2020. The analysishas been carried out by using the same system models adopted for the probabilistic adequacy analysis.In particular the generation system has been kept unchanged when dealing with two export scenarios.The results of this parametric analysis are summarized in Tables 6.1 and 6.2 below. In Table 7.1 thecorresponding indicators assessed for the Base Case (without any export) are shown as well.Tab.6.1: Export scenarios and relevant techno-economical operation parametersBase caseExport 1200 MWExport 2500 MWBasic assumptions• Flat Export (MW) 0 200 500• Exported energy (GWh/yr) 0 1.752 4.380• Total peak demand to be fed (MW) 8.730 8.930 9.230• Total energy demand (GWh/yr) 50.637 52.389 55.017Yearly production per type ofpower plants• Solar plants (GWh/yr) 3.858 3.854 3.85212

Base caseExport 1200 MWExport 2500 MW• Wind farms (GWh/yr) 6.000 6.004 6.013• Hydro plants (GWh/yr) 4.772 4.775 4.775• Dispatchable thermal plants(GWh/yr) 36.005 37.750 40.358Risk Inidices• EENS (MWh/yr) 2.991 6.313 18.328• EENS (p.u.) 5,9E-05 1,2E-04 3,3E-04• LOLE (h/yr) 11,7 23,7 60,6Economic figures• Total fuel cost (M€/yr) 1.303 1.416 1.596• Max marginal cost (€/MWh) 159,3 162,2 164,1• Average cost of exported energy(€/MWh) --- 64,3 66,9Table 6.2: Contribution of different types of thermal plants to provide the assumed power/energy Export.∆ Energy productionPlant typeInstalledcapacityExport 1: 200 MW Export 2: 500 MW(MW) (GWh/yr) (%) (GWh/yr) (%)Steam Coal 3.944 201 11,5 380 8,7Steam HFO 540CCGT 2.350GT 1.140Diesel Engine 204113 6,5 349 8,01.347 77,2 3.344 76,856 3,2 194 4,528 1,6 88 2,06.3 Main commentsThe analysis of the results - of the two scenarios considered for export- permits to draw the followingconclusions:a) The annual energy to be exported requires an equivalent increase in the Morocco power systemannual generation and this increase is fully provided by dispatchable thermal plants. The largestshare comes from Combined Cicle GT: roughly 77 % for both Export 1 and Export 2; most ofthe remaining part (23 %) is supplied by Steam Coal power plant, by Steam HFO and by GasTurbines in decreasing order. The results are consistent with the models adopted for thegeneration from Renewable Sources, which involve that the relevant generation capacities andenergy annual output are fully exploited in the base case, without any export.b) The additional production of electricity for providing the amount to be exported causestherefore an increase in the system operational cost that can be assumed as the minimumamount of revenues to be obtained from the exsported energy. Its average value can becalculated as the ratio between annual fuel extra-cost and annual exported energy,and results tobe 64,3 €/MWh for Export 1 scenario and 66,9 €/MWh for Export 2 scenario. The results areconsistent with the assumptions made on the specific cost of thermal units.13

c) The increase of total demand (power and energy) to be fed by the generation system ofMorocoo, following the two adopted export scenarios, obviuously involves a worsening of thecalculated system adequacy quantitatively measured by the increase of the two considered RiskIndices:• EENS index (Expected Energy Not Supplied) becomes 2 and 6 times higher than the valueof Base Case – assumed as reference value-, for Export 1 and Export 2 Scenariosrespectively• LOLE (Loss Of Load Expectation) results to be 2and 5,2 times the reference value.Since the adequacy of Base Case is good (EENS of some 0,6*10 -4 of annual demanded energy)a flat 200 Mw export scenario does not worsen too much generation system adequacy; in factEENS still results to be only 20 % higher than usually adopted upper limit of 10 -4 .On the contrary more critical it seems to be the Scenario 2 with 500 MW export. In this caseEENS is 3,3*10 -4 of total demand and consequently additional reinforcement of generationsystem could be envisaged.d) However it has to be stressed that the adequacy of the supply of the internal load of Moroccocan surely be kept at the satisfactory value calculated in absence of export, by assigning theincrease of ENS to the exported energy . One can estimate that 200 MW flat export (1,750GWh/yr) will be affected by a deficit of some 3,322 GWh/yr (1.9*10 -3 p.u.) due to lack ofgeneration capacity, while in the case of 500 MW flat export (4,380 GWh/yr) the expected deficitequals to 15,337 GWh/yr (3.5*10 -3 p.u.).e) The above quoted potential for export - without having a strict necessity to increase thegeneration installed capacity above the values that assure the stand alone system adequacy - isnot usual and may create a certain surprise. It can however be understood when considering thevery high reserve margin that the Morocco system requires (see Table 3.1), due to the presenceof a large share (28 % in terms of capacity) of randomly intermittent primary sources like solarand wind.7 INTERCONNECTIONS WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES7.1 Present situationAccording to the Morocco Country Report, circulated among the partners of the Consortium, twointernational interconnections are presently in operation with:• Spain through two 400 kV submarine AC cables.• Algeria through:o 400 kV double circuit overhead line from Bourdim (M) to Hassi Ameur area (A),o two 220 kV overhead lines from Oujda (M) to Ghazazouet and Tlemcen (A).According to the document MEDRING-UPDATE, issued on April 2010 in the framework of MED-EMIP Project, total tie line thermal limits of the interconnections are 1400 MVA and 2870 MVA toSpain and Algeria respectively, while Max Transfer Capabilities are 700 MW to Spain and 1400 MWto Algeria.7.2 Future developmentsThe information provided through the questionnaire show that only the interconnection with Spain will bereinforced by adding a third submarine AC cable with the same characteristics of the previously installedones. Ther total thermal capacity will be improved by 700 MVA thus totalling 2100 MVA, while Max TransferCapability could attend 1400 MW.14

References1 Résultat d’exploitation année 2010 ONEIMME-Declaration-Algiers-June-2010:Action Plan 2010-2015 Annexed to the Algiers Declaration ofMinistersFEMIP Study on the Financing of Renewable Energy Investment in the Southern and Eastern MediterraneanRegionMEDRING Update: April 2010, VolumeI,II,II IV, MED-EMIP project is funded by the European Union4th SYSTINT Report: European, CIS and Mediterranean Interconnection: State of Play 2008EURELECTRIC (Ref: 2009-XXX July 2009)Bilan des activites industrielles et commerciales 2010 ONE15