TECHNOLOGIES TO watch - Consumer Electronics Association

PARKS ASSOCIATES FOUND THAT WIRELESS RADIO LINKS ALREADYACCOUNT FOR UP TO ONE-QUARTER OF THE 10 MILLION-PLUS HOMENETWORKING CONNECTIONS IN BROADBAND HOUSEHOLDS.14than triple to 9.3 million by the end of 2003, with NorthAmerica accounting for about half of the total. In a separatestudy, Gartner forecasts that the number of frequent Wi-Fiusers in North America will jump from 4.2 million in 2003 tomore than 31 million in 2007.Similarly, Gartner projects that the number of public Wi-Fi hotspots will keep exploding. The research firm sees the worldwidetotal of hot spot locations, which is already growingexponentially from 1,214 at the end of 2001 to an estimated71,079 at the close of 2003, more than doubling again to151,768 at the end of 2005.Although not as gungho as Gartner, the Yankee Group is prettybullish too. It sees the total number of U.S. hot spots quadruplingfrom 3.020 in 2002 to 12,080 in 2003. The Yankee Groupthen envisions the total increasing six-fold to 72,480 in 2007.The possibilities for growth are even greater. In the U.S. alone,Boingo estimates, there are nearly two million potential hotspot locations, including conference centers, train stations, airports,hotels, business centers, gas stations, restaurants, barsand clubs, and, most of all, retail stores. “It’s a land grab,”Boingo says.Public Wi-Fi Hot Spots WorldwideLocation 2003* 2004* 2005*Airports 292 378 423Hotels 11,687 22,021 23,663Retail outlets 50,287 82,149 85,567Enterprise guesting areas 1,762 3,708 5,413Stations and ports 623 2,143 3,887Community hot spots 5,637 20,561 30,659Others 790 1,526 2,156Total Market 71,078 132,486 151,768*Estimates Source: Gartner Dataquest, June 2003Total U.S. Public Hot SpotsYear 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007# of hot 3,020 12,080* 21,140* 36,240* 54,360* 72,480*spots*Estimates Source: The Yankee Group, April 2003Thanks in part to sharply falling prices for consumerelectronics equipment embedded with Wi-Fi technology,industry analysts project that unit sales will keep climbingstrongly over the next few years. Analysts generally forecastthat shipment revenues will keep rising too, in spite of thesharp price declines, because of the surge in unit sales.For example, In-Stat/MDR’s figures indicate that Wi-Fihardware unit shipments tripled from 9.6 million in 2001to an estimated 28.8 million in 2003, generating $2.9 billionin revenue. In-Stat/MDR projects that unit shipments willmore than double again to 74.9 million in 2006, generating$3.9 billion in revenue.Total Wi-Fi Market Hardware UnitShipmentsYear Number of Units Revenue2001 9.6 million $1.8 billion2002 18.4 million $2.2 billion2003* 28.8 million $2.9 billion2004* 44.4 million $2.8 billion2005* 60.2 million $4.1 billion2006* 74.9 million $3.9 billion*Estimates Source: In-Stat/MDR, December 2002Likewise, computer chip makers are enjoying banner sales forWi-Fi chipsets as prices decline dramatically. In-Stat/MDRreports that chip unit sales will more than triple from 8.8 millionin 2001 to an estimated 33.3 million in 2003, producing$422 million in revenue.5 TECHNOLOGIES TO watchOCTOBER 2003