A6 RUSHDEN – HIGHAM FERRERS BYPASS ... - Highways Agency

More documents

Recommendations

Info

4. EconomyIntroduction4.1 This chapter first reports the actual cost of the scheme, and compares this with theforecast cost. In addition an evaluation of the actual monetary benefit isundertaken as follows:A comparison is made of the actual time and accident savings on key linkswith COBA forecasts of savings on these same links;The COBA predicted 30-year benefit is then adjusted by the same proportionto give the actual monetary benefit;This benefit is compared to actual costs to determine the scheme value formoney, presented as the Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR).4.2 A schematic representation of the stages of the POPE methodology is included inFigure 4.1.The chapter concludes by evaluating journey time reliability andregeneration.Adjustment FactorActual / PredictedFigure 4.1 - Schematic representation of the stages of the POPEmethodologyOutturn Cost4.3 The cost of the scheme was £16.2 million, as notified by the Highways Agency inAugust 2008. This figure includes works, land, preparation, and supervision. Mostof this was spent between the years 2000 and 2003, with small items ofexpenditure continuing until 2008.40
4.4 The figures supplied by the Highways Agency have been converted to 2002 prices,and discounted to 2002. However, there is virtually no difference between thisresulting discounted cost, and the sum of the costs as spent, because the 2002present value year is within the construction period.4.5 POPE is required to compare this outturn cost with the predicted cost. The COBAfiles supplied by the Highways Agency do not include construction costs, and theeconomic forecasting report is not available to POPE. Therefore the predicted costhas been obtained from the Appraisal Summary Table (AST), converted to 2002prices and discounted to 2002, giving a figure of £10.6 million.Table 4.1 – Scheme Cost (2002 Prices & Values)Cost (£million)Predicted 10.6Outturn 16.24.6 The predicted and actual costs are presented in Table 4.1. They are discountedvalues, although in this case there is negligible difference between these and theundiscounted values. The outturn has exceeded the predicted cost by 53%.Monetary Benefit4.7 The monetary benefit of the scheme has been evaluated as follows. Fromobserved data, it is possible to re-evaluate the two most important components ofeconomic benefit, namely:Vehicle-time savings; andAccident Savings4.8 Annual vehicle-hours have been measured from traffic count and journey timesurveys on key links in the network, in both the ‘Before’ and ‘After’ situations. Theactual ‘Before’ traffic flows have been factored to October 2008, the same date asthe ‘Five Year After’ counts. The vehicle-time is calculated from the product ofvolume multiplied by journey time. The value for the ‘After’ case is subtracted fromthe ‘Before’ value to derive the saving.4.9 The COBA 11.4 files used by the Highways Agency have been run for 2008 inorder calculate the predicted vehicle-hour savings on the same links as for thoseobserved. From this, it is possible to derive the observed:predicted ratio of vehiclehoursavings. This ratio is applied to the predicted 30-year 1 monetary benefit oftime savings, to give a new re-forecast of the time benefit, based on observed data(this may be referred to as the ‘actual’ benefit for brevity).4.10 At the time the forecasts were made, it was customary to run COBA separately forlow-growth and high-growth scenarios. A central-case prediction was based on60% of the low-growth results and 40% of the high growth results. In this report,where COBA results are quoted, they are central-case values derived in this way.1 Note that there was a 30-year evaluation period for this scheme, in accordance with normal practice at the timeof appraisal, and not a 60-year period as is customary for schemes evaluated now.41
Page 3 and 4: Table 6.2 - Allocated Housing Sites
Page 5 and 6: IPLight vehicleNATANRTFNMUOGV1, OGV
Page 7: Executive SummaryScheme Title A6 Ru
Page 10 and 11: 1. IntroductionIntroduction1.1 The
Page 12 and 13: Figure 1.2 - Layout of A6 Rushden -
Page 14 and 15: Based on a single year’s accident
Page 16 and 17: 1.20 A total of 3,000 questionnaire
Page 18 and 19: Figure 2.1 - Count Site LocationsFi
Page 20 and 21: Figure 2.3 - ‘Before’ and ‘Fi
Page 22 and 23: Flow has also fallen from 8,000 vpd
Page 24 and 25: growth between 1990 and 2008 was 46
Page 26 and 27: On the A5028 (Blue route), delays w
Page 28 and 29: However, the savings five years aft
Page 30 and 31: 3. SafetyIntroduction3.1 This chapt
Page 32 and 33: Table 3.1 - Accidents Numbers and S
Page 34 and 35: 3.12 The following points may be no
Page 36 and 37: Table 3.6 - Summary of Accidents by
Page 38 and 39: Changes to lane-marking, and in inc
Page 42 and 43: 4.11 This re-forecast benefit is re
Page 44 and 45: section. These values are shown in
Page 46 and 47: 5. Environmental Impacts5.1 This ch
Page 48 and 49: Landscape5.12 The AST predicted the
Page 50 and 51: 5.23 Table 5.5 contains the effects
Page 52 and 53: 6. Accessibility and IntegrationInt
Page 54 and 55: “Please look at improving public
Page 56 and 57: 6.27 Following completion of the A6
Page 58 and 59: “ASDA's presence has created more
Page 60 and 61: 6.45 Some comments illustrating the
Page 62 and 63: Main Accessibility and Integration
Page 64 and 65: A6 Rushden Higham Ferrers Bypass -
Page 66 and 67: 8. Conclusions8.1 The A6 Rushden -
Page 68 and 69: Table A.2 - Average Journey Times o
Page 70 and 71: Table A.4 - Average Journey Times o
Page 72 and 73: Table B.1 - Summary of POPE-Environ
Page 74 and 75: properties. Subsequent to the ES th
Page 76 and 77: Air QualitySummary of Predicted Imp
Page 78 and 79: Greenhouse GasesFor transport, the
Page 80 and 81: Table B.8 - Proposed Mitigation and
Page 82 and 83: PhotographsPhotograph B.1 - Exchang
Page 84 and 85: Photograph B.5 - High chain link fe
Page 86 and 87: Table B.10 - ES proposed Mitigation
Page 88 and 89: Key FindingsThe AST predicted the s
Page 90 and 91:
PhotographsPhotograph B.15 - The Co
Page 92 and 93:
Table B.14 - ES predicted Effects,
Page 94 and 95:
A6 Rushden and Higham Ferrers Bypas
show all

A6 RUSHDEN – HIGHAM FERRERS BYPASS ... - Highways Agency

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?