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Authoritarian Rule and Democracy in Africa: A Theoretical Discourse

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I group A, B <strong>and</strong> C as models of economic expansion; <strong>and</strong> D, E <strong>and</strong> F as models of economiccrisis. Models of expansion do not rule out possibilities of crisis. In fact, crisis is embedded <strong>in</strong>all the models, given the problems usually associated with markets, state <strong>in</strong>terventions <strong>and</strong>mixed systems of accumulation. I do not discuss specific cyclical crisis situations. A model ofexpansion <strong>in</strong> this context represents positive structural transformations, <strong>and</strong> a model of crisisis associated with negative structural changes. The two deal with development processes thatlead to qualitative changes <strong>in</strong> forms of accumulation. In this context negative structuralchanges can experience periods of positive growth. These models are illustrated <strong>in</strong> thefollow<strong>in</strong>g scale:+3 +2 +1 0 -1 -2 -3A B C D E FThe focus on forms of accumulation <strong>in</strong> construct<strong>in</strong>g the models obviously downplays othercrucial variables like resource endowment <strong>and</strong> class structure – some would say it leaves themout completely. The theoretical focus is, of course, to establish a l<strong>in</strong>kage between forms ofaccumulation <strong>and</strong> political systems that can be classified as either democratic or authoritarian.In any case, some of the other variables, though not explicitly treated, could be deduced fromthe six models which, <strong>in</strong> a way, give us some idea of different patterns <strong>and</strong> levels ofdevelopment. I relate changes <strong>in</strong> forms of accumulation to questions of rural-urban<strong>in</strong>tegration, the nature of system-ma<strong>in</strong>tenance social contracts, the provision of publicwelfare, <strong>and</strong> the dynamics of state-civil society relations. These represent the crucial factors <strong>in</strong>establish<strong>in</strong>g whether <strong>Africa</strong>n countries can experience authoritarian or democratic rule. Imake no attempt, however, to develop quantifiable variables around these issues. I highlightthe qualitative l<strong>in</strong>ks between these issues <strong>and</strong> authoritarianism/democracy <strong>in</strong> Table 2.Table 2Forms of accumulation <strong>and</strong> socio-political systemsForms ofaccumulationRural-urban<strong>in</strong>tegrationWelfareSocialsystemA very high very high social contract(corporate)State/civilsocietyautonomouscivil societyB moderate moderate/high patron-client regulatedcivil societyC moderate high social contract(controlled)/patron-clientD low low collaps<strong>in</strong>gsocialcontract/resurgence ofk<strong>in</strong>ship ties<strong>and</strong> self<strong>in</strong>terestEFlow/extremedualismcollapsedmoderneconomyvery lowcollectivek<strong>in</strong>ship familywelfarecollapsedsocial contractfragmentedk<strong>in</strong>ship tiesstate/partcontrol of civilsociety<strong>in</strong>tensepressures forautonomy ofcivil society<strong>in</strong>tensepressures forautonomy ofcivil societyfusion of state<strong>and</strong> civilsocietyPotentialpoliticalsystemliberaldemocracyclientelistdemocracyauthoritarianauthoritarianauthoritarianauthoritarian/<strong>in</strong>formaldemocracyThe peasant question, which is at the heart of rural-urban <strong>in</strong>tegration, is central to anydiscussion of democracy <strong>in</strong> <strong>Africa</strong> s<strong>in</strong>ce most people live <strong>in</strong> rural areas <strong>and</strong> depend on10

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