RIAC-Visegrad-Report22-Eng

CONCLUSIONto fix the blunders made in implementing the Eastern Partnership. Secondly, theVisegrad Group would become the main ground in the Central Europe for thedialogue between Russia, Europe and the United States on the other. And in thefuture it could possibly play a new Central European role in international politics.Although the situation is changing rapidly, it is possible to make some forecastsand recommendations concerning the further development of relations in theRussia–Ukraine–Visegrad triangle.In the short term, the situation within the Visegrad Group itself attracts a numberof questions. Poland and the remaining Visegrad countries may differ even furtherin their approach towards Ukraine. Other countries – notably the Czech Republic –would try to go Southwest towards Austria and Slovenia, thus restoring theoutlines of Austria-Hungary, from whose shadow the United States has beentrying to pull Europe for a quarter of a century. Here Hungary and Slovakia wouldcertainly back The Czech Republic. The three Visegrad Group countries would beirritated by attempts to force them to move closer to Ukraine because they haverepeatedly barred Kiev’s admission, realizing that another big member that sideswith Poland could bring the group down. Perhaps the shifting political inclinationof Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia towards the Southwest will leadPoland to strengthen its military contacts in the Vilnius–Warsaw–Kiev triangle.The aim of creating a joint military group was already declared two years ago andhas been implemented during the current crisis. Besides, these are more equalpartners who have been close historically, unlike Hungary, Slovakia and the CzechRepublic, which are more similar in various characteristics to each other. Sucha delimitation would simultaneously encourage greater regionalization of Ukraineitself, making federalization all the more inevitable forcing its northern regions todetermine their stance on the matter. Here much would depend on Belarus.Russia needs to understand which scenario best suits its geopolitical interests.Then Moscow has to choose partners or at least temporary allies in Central andEastern Europe.In midterm, it’s possible to revive four countries’ sound relations becauseHungarian–Polish mutual attraction is centuries old. Thus, the Visegrad Groupmay restore itself in a more robust form due to a deeper interaction with theneighbouring regions of adjacent countries. Here it is worth taking a closer look atCarpathian Europe. In any case, Russia has to be ready now and clarify its officialopinion of Central and Eastern Europe. Moscow may build up its authority in theregion if it gives the Visegrad Group an opportunity to regain its status, if only asa venue for negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Meanwhile, thiswould make up, albeit belatedly for the mistakes of the European Union and theVisegrad Group in ignoring Russia’s interests in Ukraine.Long term relations between Russia and the Visegrad Group countries willbe determined not only by the effectiveness of bilateral relations, but also incooperation to resolve the multitude of issues surrounding Ukraine. Given thatthe crisis has already descended into military confrontation, there is little hope forvoluntary reconciliation between the east and west of the country. Ukraine needsmediators, and these mediators could feasibly be its immediate neighbours –Russia and the Visegrad Group countries. Russia’s priority is to avoid confrontationbetween countries under any circumstances. Use-of-brute-force scenariowww.russiancouncil.ru69