Final Report - Vulnerability Committee

Flood Control Dam Water Resources Infrastructure Assessment -Final ReportToronto and Region Conservation Authority Flood Control DamsTable 4-22InfrastructureComponentLow Risk – High Severity InteractionsClimateParameterSeverityScoreHistoricalProbabilityScoreExistingRiskScoreFutureProbabilityScoreFutureRiskScoreAdministration / OperationPersonnel Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Control Building Hurricane/Tropical5 1 5 2 10StormOperatingprocedures5 1 5 1 5LightningHurricane/TropicalStorm5 1 5 2 10OperatorHurricane/TropicalresidenceStorm5 1 5 2 10Spillway structures (G. Ross Lord only)Hoist building for Hurricane/Tropicallow level outlet Storm5 1 5 2 10Mechanical systemsRadial gates Tornado 5 2 10 2 10Radial gates hoistsystemEmbankment damsEmbankment dam,upstreamLightning6 1 6 1 6Hurricane/TropicalStormEmbankment dam, Hurricane/TropicalcrestStormEmbankment dam, Hurricane/Tropicaldownstream StormGroundwater drainage/management systemsMonitoringsystemsLightning5 1 5 1 5Electric power supplyGrid supply Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Backup generator Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Backup gas motor Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Control and monitoring systemsBackup controls Lightning 6 1 6 1 6CommunicationsTelephone Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Cellular Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Two-way radio Lightning 6 1 6 1 6Safety systemsSecurity systems Lightning 6 1 6 1 65 1 5 2 105 1 5 2 105 1 5 2 10It can be observed from Table 4-22 that the main climate parameters involved in interactions with low riskscores and high severities, which were not considered in Step 4, are lightning, hurricane/tropical storm,and tornado. Recognizing the severity of these events may provide a basis for further assessments,additional investment in the protection of the infrastructure, and/or the consideration of such events inemergency response procedures.Furthermore, it can be seen from Table 4-22 that several interactions show an increase in risk as a resultof anticipated climate change. Although several of these interactions have an increased future risk scoreas a result of climate change, only a few are actually considered to be vulnerable in the future. Table 4-23lists interactions that:Have a “low” existing risk scoreHave a “high” severity scoreHave an increase in future risk score from “low” to “medium” due to climate changeGENIVAR 4-54