The Mayor’s Outer London Commission Final Report
The Mayor's Outer London Commission: Final Report - Planning ...
The Mayor's Outer London Commission: Final Report - Planning ...
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On the basis of existing evidence how much<br />
employment growth might be expected in <strong>Outer</strong><br />
<strong>London</strong>?<br />
Scenario 1: continuation of 1989 – 2006/7 historic trends in <strong>London</strong> employment and no<br />
change in outer <strong>London</strong>’s share of this = 4,600 more jobs pa (in context of 22,000 more jobs<br />
pa across <strong>London</strong> as a whole): a static view of how employment might change, taking no account of<br />
the changing importance of different sectors in the future<br />
Scenario 2: 2008 <strong>London</strong> Plan forecast based on a triangulation of now dated historic<br />
trends, estimates of development capacity and improvements to public transport accessibility<br />
= 10,000 more jobs pa: takes account of changing relationships between different sectors but does not<br />
reflect the most up-to-date information on economic trends<br />
Scenario 3: Oxford Economics 2009 forecast = 10,500 more jobs pa: an up-to-date, top-down,<br />
macro-economic view but does not reflect local infrastructure investment and development capacity<br />
New <strong>London</strong> Plan forecast based on new employment, development capacity and public<br />
transport capacity data: work in progress….. But could be 6,000 – 8,000 more jobs pa, perhaps<br />
spread across almost all outer <strong>London</strong> boroughs.<br />
Conclusion: forecasts taking account a range of factors all suggest growth<br />
above historic trend
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