The forty-seventh meeting of TMAG was hosted by HP at i - IPR ...

Minutes of the 47 th meeting of the Technology Market Analysis Group (TMAG)
The forty-seventh meeting of TMAG was hosted by HP at its Executive Briefing Center
in Cupertino, California on August 17-18, 2011. The theme of the meeting was Trend-
Spotting and Forecasting Market Disruptions.
TMAG members attending the meeting included:
Claiborne Brown, Adobe
Ryan Dietzen, Adobe
Sheryl Ehrlich, Adobe
Sara Kang, Adobe
Cindy Alfieri, Agilent
Jim Slevin, AMD
Pras Chaudhuri, ArcInsights
Bill O'Connor, Autodesk
Jon Pittman, Autodesk
Jessica Raedler, Autodesk
Yvonne Shu, Autodesk
Richard Yeardye, Avaya
Stephen Heffernan, CareFusion
Usha Andra, Cisco
Mary Ellen Bercik, Cisco
Jane Chou, Cisco
Brian Hutchins-Knowles, Cisco
Shruti Jain, Cisco
Theresa Kushner, Cisco
Shawn Reeves, Cisco
Pia Rieppo, Cisco
Yevgeniy Shishkanov, Cisco
Arielle Sumits, Cisco
Melissa Utter, Cisco
Martin Lee, CSC
Doug Schwegman, CyberSource
Zhengzheng Pan, Facebook
John Apostolopoulos, HP
Raja Bhadury, HP
Jimmy Gonzales, HP
Paul Logue, HP
Sanjeev Madan, HP
Swati Saxena, HP
Catherine Sheldon, HP
Bill Chamberlin, IBM
Renee Chin, Intel
Lisa Sammon, Intel
Brent Johnson, IPR
Jeff Young, IPR
Deanna Graham, LeapFrog
Brad Crysel, Level 3 Communications
Michael Fay, Level 3 Communications
Buvana Dayanandan, NetApp
Cuneyt Kayali, NetApp
Pamela Kirkbride, NetApp
Samarth Mohanty, NetApp
Stephanie Morrison, NetApp
Regina Ramos, NetApp
Lee Hirsch, NVIDIA
Shveta Saggar, NVIDIA
Inga Vailionis, Omnicell
Mihir Barua, Oracle
Kathy Jarvis, PARC
Maia Pindar, PARC
Alexis Jacobson, Seagate
Alex Jukl, Seagate
Jeff Coldani, Symantec
Sanjay Kacholiya, Synopsys
Alan Lee, Synopsys
Matteo Recagni, Synopsys
Yili Chang, TiVo
Alex Petrilli, TiVo
Sarah Mostajeran, Western Digital
Arsy Vartanian, Western Digital
The following participants signed up for remote access:
Maia Jin, Accenture
Stephanie Olla, Accenture
Daya Nadamuni, Adobe
Claudio Capobianco, AMD
Giselle Stancic, Cisco
Jack Lamey, Epson America
Daniel Torok, HP
Ann White, HP
Anna James, National Instruments
Robin Yarmovsky, Qualcomm
Rebecca Burr, Xilinx
Speakers making presentations during the meeting and their guests included:
Aaron Schulman, Toffler Associates
Richard Sear, Frost & Sullivan
Joe Fristensky, Frost & Sullivan
Doug Williams, Forrester Research
Martin Schwirn, Strategic Business Insights

TMAG 47 at HP in Cupertino August 17-18, 2011
Wednesday, August 17
Jimmy Gonzales welcomed attendees to TMAG 47 at HP in Cupertino with some
opening remarks; he was followed by Jeff Young of IPR, who introduced the day’s first
speaker, Aaron Schulman of Toffler Associates. Aaron’s presentation was entitled
“Growing in a Complex World: Uncommon Knowledge for a Competitive Edge”. During
his session, Aaron described the convergences that will shape the future, and outlined
Toffler’s approach to scenario planning as a way of anticipating this future. He
illustrated with a case study involving a global aerospace firm, and shared a video that
provided highlights of the resulting findings from this scenario planning exercise.
After a short break, Richard Sear of Frost & Sullivan then followed with a session
entitled “Innovating with Mega Trends: Adopting them as Part of Your Corporate DNA”.
He was introduced by Brad Crysel of Level 3 Communications. Richard shared seven
examples of mega trends affecting the world today, and described Frost & Sullivan’s
approach to helping companies integrate trends like these into their business planning
processes.
TMAG members then introduced themselves to the group. In the spirit of the meeting
theme – which was intended to help attendees to anticipate the future - members were
asked as part of their introductions to tell about the biggest surprise they had ever
experienced in their lives. Responses ranged widely, and included pregnancy (of both
the human and canine variety), the British Beekeepers Journal, naked pictures in a
photo album, a car parked inside the house, a blown head gasket, winning an inflatable
rowboat in a drawing, and finding a 14 year old daughter “in a relationship” on
Facebook.
After lunch, Jeff Young of IPR led the first discussion of TMAG business. During this
session, members brainstormed on possible themes for the next meeting. Highlights of
suggested topics included:
1. Insights and funding; organizational structure and skill sets: what does a manager need? Building an MI
practice; perhaps orient all this around a specific initiative:
a. Funding models, centralization/decentralization of organization (Jim Slevin, Doug Schwegman,
Jimmy Gonzales), MI operating models/structure, employee (as trusted advisor) retention in MI,
career paths (Cindy Alfieri); organizational benchmarks (Jim, Jimmy) and metrics (Kathy Jarvis);
benchmarking for headcount planning.
b. Packaging and communicating market intelligence for maximum impact; repurposing and
leveraging, in a format that is digestible and actionable. (Doug).
c. Consulting skills within your own organization; how to be more effective communicating with
executives (Pia Rieppo)
d. Send the group a questionnaire on MI structure and budget ahead of time (Jimmy, Jim); pre-work
before the next meeting (Claiborne Brown). Suggested speakers include Sirius Decisions,
Marketing Leadership Council (Jim, Doug), Brad Bortner from Forrester.
e. Does MI handle the interactions with analysts? Knowledge Cap mentioned as a prospective
speaker (Brad Crysel); managing the relationships for evangelization – which was noted as a
function of the internal funding model.

TMAG 47 at HP in Cupertino August 17-18, 2011
2. Competitive intelligence: How much and what do you need to know about your competitors? What’s the
best way to research competitors? What can they find out about you in the process? Suggest this topic
be focused on a particular function – such as sales, product development, or M+A:
a. Privacy/security issues? Especially given new methods of research, laws, EU issues and tracking
(Theresa Kushner)
b. Leveraging win/loss analysis, best practices (Inga Vailionis)
c. Finding information on companies that aren’t public (Arsy Vartanian) or when you don’t have a
known competitor (Claiborne) or when the competitor is also a “fellow traveler” or partner (Inga)
d. Reading disruptive market conditions and their effects on your business (Mary Ellen Bercik)
e. Drilling down on CI to gather qualitative info on the customer experience (Cuneyt Kayali)
3. MI in new/difficult markets:
a. International markets (Theresa); particularly emerging markets (Pras Chaudhuri); data analytics
(Regina Ramos) and data quality (Pras) in emerging markets.
b. Emerging technology markets (Brian Hutchins-Knowles)
c. Use of mobile technologies to conduct research
d. The “long tail” problem (Doug)
e. ROI on emerging markets (Claiborne)
f. Research on younger people (Yili Chang), the services market (Mary Ellen)
4. Working with “big” data, mining it, and pulling snappy slides from it; what are people doing with it?
Managing, cataloging, and accessing data/information/everything under the sun; techniques for getting
started/how to organize the data in the first place:
a. Web analytics? (Claiborne)
b. Data visualization techniques and tools (Inga)
c. Drawing the market insights out of it? (Pia)
d. A call for war stories here (Stephanie Morrison)
e. Amorphous data, the “sloppy stuff” (Kathy)
f. Predictive analytics (Renee Chin)
5. Mash-up of best practices and case studies of all the above
a. Best practices on vendor management (Jimmy) and qualifications
b. Research on customer contact and privacy; management of customer lists - rules, priorities
(Yvonne Shu). Community management (Jimmy)
Jeff Young of IPR then recognized the TMAG Recruiting Committee for their efforts to
expand the membership, which led to attendees from several new companies at TMAG
47. Brad Crysel/Level 3 Communications, Regina Ramos/NetApp, and Mary Ellen
Bercik/Cisco agreed to participate in the TMAG Recruiting Committee, where they will
join Susan Walker/Adobe, Jim Slevin/AMD, and Brent Johnson/IPR. Members who
have contacts/prospects they would like the group to reach out to are encouraged to
contact Jeff or one of the members of the recruiting committee.
Jeff Young then introduced the afternoon’s first speaker, Bill Chamberlin of IBM. Bill’s
session was entitled “Horizon Watching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential
Futures”. Bill first described eight IBM foresight initiatives (Global Technology Outlook,
Academy of Technology, First of a Kind, Global Innovation Outlook, InnovationJam,
Institute for Business Value, Market Development & Insights, and the HorizonWatch
Community) by which the company develops a view of the future. He then provided an
overview of how he conducts trends research in his role as a market insights analyst –

TMAG 47 at HP in Cupertino August 17-18, 2011
specifically, the ways in which he leverages social media and communities, and shares
thought leadership via a blog.
Jeff Young then introduced the next speaker, Doug Williams of Forrester Research.
Doug’s session was entitled "Digging for Gold: How Co-Creation Can Lead to
Innovative New Products". Doug led off with a case study – the Goldcorp Challenge –
that illustrates the benefits that can be realized through crowdsourcing. Doug then
described other approaches to co-creation – ideation, communities, contest, and inperson
approaches – with examples of companies who have employed each approach.
He also described the opportunities and benefits that can be realized through cocreation.
After a short break, Brad Crysel introduced the next speaker, Michael Fay of Level 3
Communications. Michael’s session was entitled “Capitalizing on Market Disruption:
Genesis and Evolution of the Online Video Market”. During his session, Michael shared
techniques and approaches that he and his team used to identify the online video
market opportunity as a major disruptive force before this market even existed, and how
they worked to ensure that Level 3 was able to capitalize on this development.
Raja Bhadury of HP then introduced the day’s final speaker, John Apostolopoulos of HP
Labs. John’s session was entitled “Creating the Future: Identifying and Shaping
Trends Several Years Out”. John shared a number of case studies – ranging from
mobile multimedia, to high-quality videoconferencing and future displays - to illustrate
the approaches that HP Labs uses to spot trends and to develop products based on
them.
After the meeting concluded for the day, attendees adjourned to Arya Restaurant in
Cupertino, where IPR hosted the group at a relaxing and convivial reception and dinner
on Wednesday evening.
Thursday, August 18
The first speaker of the second day was Jon Pittman of Autodesk; he was introduced by
Jeff Young. Jon’s session was entitled “Great Conversations: Forecasting the Future in
a Mysterious World”. During his session, Jon described the vehicles by which Autodesk
engages with its customers and the the broader market so as to gain a firmer grasp of
what the future holds. These vehicles include the Autodesk Gallery; the TED
Conference; Singularity University; Autodesk University; and IDEAS – the Innovation
and Design Series.
Jeff Young then led the second discussion of TMAG business. He began by
recognizing our hosts at HP and the agenda committee (Raja Bhadury, Cath Sheldon,
Paul Teich, Brad Crysel, Cuneyt Kayali, Stephanie Morrison, and Seema Swamy) for
their contributions to TMAG 47. After reviewing the suggestions from the previous day,
the group narrowed down the roster of potential agenda themes through three rounds of
voting. The second, third and fourth topics from the previous day came out of the initial

TMAG 47 at HP in Cupertino August 17-18, 2011
round of voting in a virtual tie as candidates for further consideration. In the second
round of voting, the third and fourth topics separated themselves from the pack. During
the runoff between these, the fourth topic (tentatively dubbed “Using Big Data to Drive
Business Decisions”) received a clear majority and will be the agenda theme for TMAG
48.
Four companies indicated a willingness to host our next meeting – two in the Bay Area
(Leapfrog, CyberSource/Visa), one in San Diego (CareFusion), and one outside of
Denver (Level 3 Communications). Most attendees expressed a preference for a Bay
Area location; but the broader TMAG membership will be surveyed before a final
decision is made. Renee Chen/Intel, Pras Chaudhuri/ArcInsight, Kathy Jarvis/PARC, a
Cisco representative (Pia Rieppo, Theresa Kushner, and/or Mary Ellen Bercik), and a
representative from our host company will serve on the agenda committee; Jeff will
follow up with Inga Vailionis/Omnicell to see if she is interested in joining the group as
well, given her interest in the agenda theme.
After a short break, Pras Chaudhuri of ArcInsight introduced the next speaker, Martin
Schwirn of Strategic Business Insights. Martin’s session was entitled “Getting an Early
Jump on the Future: The Scan Process”. He described the sources of uncertainty
involving the future, and the characteristics of an effective approach for navigating this
future – which involves harvesting signals of change, identifying events of interest and
the patterns they produce, ranking/prioritizing based these on impact and uncertainty,
and creating scenarios and developing strategy off of them.
Buvana Dayanandan of NetApp was the day’s final speaker. She was introduced by
Cuneyt Kayali of NetApp Buvana’s session was entitled “Identifying Market Trends:
Making the Most of Customer and Market Intelligence”. She described the process by
which NetApp integrates customer and market intelligence so as to improve its ability to
anticipate what lies ahead.
Feedback on meeting overall was quite positive; attendees offered a number of
suggestions that the agenda committee will consider in planning for the next meeting:
• Rather than pure content for two days, we could try afternoon breakout sessions led
by several of the presenters that open up specific aspects of their presentations to
conversation and brainstorming;
• Collect written feedback on each presentation for three minutes afterwards;
• Remote participants noted that problems with the audio (speakers not using
microphones) and video (slides weren’t showing) made some sessions hard to follow;
• One member liked the request at the outset for attendees to close their notebooks
and give speakers their full attention;
• Would have been nice to have had a little more room at dinner;
• Consider consolidating it down to one day instead of two - with the informal
dinner/cocktail gathering people still have time to mingle;
• For some topics it might be nice to have shorter sessions.

TMAG 47 at HP in Cupertino August 17-18, 2011
Feedback on the speakers was generally favorable, though several attendees felt some
speakers seemed to be plugging their own services more than addressing the agenda
theme. Among the outside speakers, Richard Sear, Doug Williams and Aaron
Schulman were consistently praised; feedback on Martin Schwirn was more mixed.
TMAG member-led sessions were also generally well-received, particularly those by Bill
Chamberlin and Jon Pittman; although Michael Fay was consistently recognized as a
very good speaker, the material he presented was seen as less relevant to the group.
Many thanks to Jimmy Gonzales, Paul Logue and Nicole Marquez of HP for all their
efforts which helped to make 47 th meeting of TMAG such an enjoyable and memorable
experience!