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limitations on political contributions by individuals and corporations,
creating a new breed of SuperPACs — political
action committees with seemingly unlimited dollars to spend
in support of candidates and issue advertising to influence
tight races.
The fact that neither party has rallied around a single
choice for nominee has raised the specter of on-air brawling
early in the primary season across states that might not
otherwise have seen big spending. And most of the 10 states
identified as hard-core battlegrounds this time around —
Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia,
Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire — are
also expected to have hard-fought Senate or gubernatorial
elections. With control of the Senate up for grabs once again,
Democrats , Republicans and their affiliates will be digging
deep in those fights. The only sure thing is that these
factors will substantially increase the flow of ad dollars to
local media.
“We haven’t seen anything like this in the post- Citizens
United era,” says Elizabeth Wilner, senior VP and head of
Kantar’s CMAG. “All of those contested races are going to
produce enormous amounts of spending.”
Wilner adds that even candidates in statewide races
that hadn’t previously been waged on TV, such as those for
state supreme court posts, are starting to produce substantial
ad dollars.
Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω
The maxim that all politics is local is surely underscored by
campaign spending trends. According to CMAG, local broadcast
TV stations are projected to haul in $3.3 billion in 2016
spending, with another $800 million going to local cable, and
the rest divided between national broadcast and cable networks.
Digital spending will grow “exponentially” this time
2016 by the
Numbers
115
Electoral college
votes up for grabs in
contested states
Colorado, 9; Florida, 29;
Iowa, 6; Nevada, 6; New
Hampshire 4; Ohio, 18;
Pennsylvania, 20; Virginia,
13; Wisconsin, 10
5
Number of highly
competitive
Senate races
Illinois, Florida, New
Hampshire, Nevada,
Wisconsin
5
Number of highly
competitive
gubernatorial races
Kentucky, Missouri, North
Carolina, New Hampshire,
West Virginia
14
Number of highly
competitive
House races
Arizona, Colorado, Florida
(2), Illinois, Iowa, Maine,
Minnesota, Nebraska,
Nevada, New Hampshire,
New York, Pennsylvania,
Texas
SOURCE: COOK POLITICAL REPORT
Small Screen
Stumping
Political spending on
broadcast TV stations
$3 BILLION
2
1
0
’08 ’10 ’12
Spending on broadcast
TV for presidential advertisements
between the
nominating conventions
and Election Day
$300m $500m
’08 ’12
SOURCE: TELEVISION
BUREAU OF ADVERTISING
around, Wilner says , although CMAG does not forecast a specific
amount of spending in the sector.
But as lucrative as the 2016 picture appears, this presidential
cycle may mark the peak of television’s dominance
of the field. By 2020, Wilner notes, the generation that
has grown up online will be hitting the age when voter
participation in state and federal elections starts to pick up.
That, plus the general drift of audiences toward digital platforms
throughout the day, is sure to tilt the scales on ad
placement decisions.
For now, however, TV stations in battleground states are
poised to cash in on the campaign trail like never before.
“We are easily looking at another record year,” says Mark
Fratrik, senior VP and chief economist at media consulting
firm BIA/Kelsey. “There are so many significantly funded
Republican candidates, and surprisingly, Hillary Clinton has
some competition with some money on the Democratic side.
And there are many Senate races that are already being funded
pretty well.”
Local news is the magnet for political ads on broadcast TV.
Likely voters tend to be regular viewers of such newscasts.
Those are the people campaigns are eager to reach.
In the final weeks of an election, “nothing is more paramount
for a candidate than to put ads on the air of local television
stations,” Fratrik says .
The chase for political dollars has been a big driver in the
recent burst of TV station mergers, as a handful of owners
seek to create mega-groups with the kind of reach that gives
them leverage with advertisers. Stations in traditional swing
states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are significantly
more valuable than those in states that are solid red or
blue, because of the promise that they will hoover up copious
amounts of political dollars every few years.
For months, TV and radio station owners like Tribune,
Sinclair Broadcast Group, CBS and Tegna have been preparing
what amount to campaigns of their own geared to political
media buyers. Station groups have invested in hiring sales
execs with deep roots in Washington and have taken steps to
centralize their sales efforts through D.C.-based reps. There’s
also been a premium on tapping new hires and consultants
with expertise in handling the granular audience data analysis
of vital importance to political media buyers. President
Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign was notable for its effective
use of digital-audience targeting tools. TV industry vets
say that put everyone on notice that Big Data would be key to
effective sales pitches in 2016.
Just last week, Nielsen unveiled a Voter Ratings service for
radio stations designed to help campaigns target Democratic,
Republican and independent voters according to the stations
and formats they prefer. Nielsen has a similar service for TV
stations in the top 56 TV markets.
Broadcasters’ willingness to invest in new people and new
tools underscores the importance of the periodic political
windfall to the bottom lines of station owners. The marriage
of money and politics may be bad for democracy, in the view
of many Americans, but it is a boon for anyone with an electronic
bully pulpit to sell.
“We’ve seen a lot more strategy and effort going into
staffing on the (buying) and on the sales side,” Wilner says .
“Everybody’s going out and hiring political experts to talk to
each other. You’re seeing a whole cohort of (TV) sales people
in Washington that didn’t used to exist. It’s the station groups
and others doing everything they can to get that revenue
bump in the near term.”
The biggest bonanza comes from SuperPAC spending. By
law, advertisements purchased directly by a candidate in the
45-day period before a primary election and 60-day period
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