TECHNOLOGY AT WORK
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48<br />
Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2015<br />
One reason for the relatively low dependence of the auto industry in Japan is the<br />
simple fact that current production capacity is over 10 million, while production in<br />
2014 was around 9.5 million units, including exports. As shown below, helped in part<br />
by the weak yen, demand for robots from the auto industry has seen a recovery<br />
over the past three quarters but on an annual basis demand is still well below the<br />
pre-Global Financial Crisis level. At the same time, the domestic auto industry<br />
already has one of the highest robot densities globally (1,520 units per 10,000<br />
workers) compared to only 214 in all other industries.<br />
Figure 39. Annual demand for robots from the auto industry in Japan<br />
(Units)<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
Figure 40. Quarterly demand for robots from the auto industry in Japan<br />
(Units)<br />
6,000<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br />
0<br />
2007 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2008 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2009 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2010 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2011 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2012 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2013 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
2014 Q1<br />
Q2<br />
Q3<br />
Q4<br />
Source: JARA, Citi Research<br />
Source: JARA, Citi Research<br />
Robots and the workforce<br />
In terms of the impact of robots on employment, the relationship is complicated.<br />
Using Yaskawa as an example, visiting their robotics plant in Jiangsu (China) we<br />
recently saw a plant where monthly production is being ramped up towards 500<br />
units but there were only a handful of robots being used to tighten screws and in the<br />
paint shop. As of late November 2014, the plant employed 190 people and was<br />
producing ~320 units/month. However, it is clear that more people will be employed<br />
to cope with the expected increase in output. In contrast, the company told us<br />
recently that at its new #3 robot plant in Kita Kyushu (Japan) they have managed to<br />
reduce workers at one assembly process by about 80% (from 20 to only 2-3), and<br />
have re-assigned these workers. Similarly, their dual-arm robots are being used on<br />
the assembly line at their domestic servo motor plant in Iruma (Saitama) with the<br />
specific aim of reducing higher cost employees.<br />
© 2015 Citigroup