Province of Balochistan Pakistan

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T i m e d u r a t i o n High temperature, low relative humidity, less cloud cover Increased evaporation & transpiration Variation in Natural Cli Precipitation insufficiency (amount, timeliness and adequacy) Reduced infiltration, runoff, deep percolation and groundwater recharge Soil water deficiency, plant water stress, reduction in crop area, production and yields, reduction in livestock numbers and their live Reduced flow in rivers/streams, depleting water tables, reduced water availability, reduced flows/drying of karezes and tubewells Agricultural drought Hydrological drought Meteorological drought Physical, Environmental, Agricultural, and Socioeconomic impacts Figure 4.1: Linkages between different drought types and various physical, environmental, agricultural and socio-economic factors in Balochistan 4.2.1 Meteorological drought Meteorological drought occurs when precipitation deficiency in terms of amount, intensity and timing causes reduction of water infiltration, runoff and deep percolation, and diminished groundwater recharge. Moreover, high temperature, strong wind, low relative humidity, greater sunshine and less or no cloud cover causes increased evaporation and transpiration (Tiwari et al., 2007; Wilhite & Glanz, 1985; WMO, 2005). Other conceptualizations may relate actual precipitation departures to average amounts on monthly, seasonal, or annual time scales (WMO, 2005). The definition of meteorological drought must be considered specific to a region, since atmospheric conditions vary from region to region (Wilhite & Glanz, 1985). Meteorological drought is predicted by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In 2009, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommended the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) as the global standard hazard index to measure drought via the ‘Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices’. The SPI is computationally easy and enables transferability 16
across temporal and spatial scales. The main obstacle in using the SPI is that it needs long-term rainfall data (at least 30 years of error-free data) to establish distribution parameters that capture the nature of meteorological drought in a given region. SPI is measured here only for Quetta meteorological station due to non-availability of data of Dalbandeen, Muslim Bagh, etc, stations in Balochistan. SPI can be calculated by the following expression: SSSSSS = RRRR − RRRR σσ Where R i is the annual rainfall and R m is the long term seasonal mean rainfall and sigma is the standard deviation. Many districts of Balochistan have been experiencing meteorological drought in terms of amount, timeliness, and intensity of precipitation in recent years. The Bureau of Meteorology (2011 & 2013), reported that the lower half of Balochistan received very little rainfall during 2011 and 2013, ranging from 25 to 200 mm, leading most of the areas there towards a meteorological drought. Figure 4.2 shows a declining trend in precipitation over an extended period of time in Quetta, Balochistan. The SPI index was used to compute meteorological drought occurrence and intensity. Rainfall (mm) Linear (Rainfall (mm)) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Figure 4.2: Rainfall over the period 1970 to 2013 (Source: Balochistan Agricultural Research Development Centre, Quetta, 1970-2013) 4.2.2 Standardized precipitation index (SPI), Quetta SPI was calculated on the basis of annual rainfall data for Quetta city from the year 1965 to 2014 (Figure 4.3). The analysis showed that out of fifty years, twenty years experienced mild drought, seventeen near normal, three moderate and, in contrast, two years were extremely wet. The SPI indicates that during the year 2014, moderate drought prevailed. 17
Page 1 and 2: Drought Risk Assessment in the Prov
Page 3 and 4: 4.2.4 Hydrological drought 20 4.2.5
Page 5 and 6: List of Tables Table 3.1: District
Page 7 and 8: Executive summary • Recurring dro
Page 9 and 10: • The drought has differentially
Page 11 and 12: Chapter 1: Introduction Drought is
Page 13 and 14: Chapter 2: Overview of the study ar
Page 15 and 16: district of which some 6.8 persons
Page 17 and 18: The district headquarter is Uthal.
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 3: Methodology 3.1 Assessme
Page 21 and 22: Figure 3.1: Case study districts of
Page 23 and 24: At the province and district levels
Page 25: east, returning every 8, 20, and 60
Page 29 and 30: Figure 4.4: Severity of meteorologi
Page 31 and 32: hydrological year to study the effe
Page 33 and 34: 4.2.5 Standardized water level inde
Page 35 and 36: Figure 4.10: Severity of socio-econ
Page 37 and 38: Figure 4.11: Severity of drought in
Page 39 and 40: intrusion (V8) was marked higher th
Page 41 and 42: Chena Alizai, and in some villages
Page 43 and 44: Figure 4.16: Drying fruit trees due
Page 45 and 46: 0% -10% -20% Pishin Killa Saifullah
Page 47 and 48: Figure 4.22: A view of Zanginawar L
Page 49 and 50: 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0
Page 51 and 52: one daily meal (FAO/WFP, 2000). But
Page 53 and 54: 100 Killa Saifullah Loralai Pishin
Page 55 and 56: Figure 4.30: Vineyards considered a
Page 57 and 58: So far, the provincial government o
Page 59 and 60: Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 5: Policy recommendations f
Page 63 and 64: sectoral involvement of government
Page 65 and 66: • Define the duties and responsib
Page 67 and 68: important process of enforcing the
Page 69 and 70: To date, however, a common response
Page 71 and 72: Chapter 6: Conclusion Drought in Ba
Page 73 and 74: References Abarquez, I. and Murshed
Page 75 and 76: PDMA (Provincial Disaster Managemen
Page 77 and 78:
Appendix B: Groundwater balance in
Page 79 and 80:
Appendix D: Household survey drough
Page 81 and 82:
5. Crop patterns and changes over t
Page 83 and 84:
8. Estimated gross family income (R
Page 85 and 86:
10. Water resources and management
Page 87 and 88:
13. Vulnerability context Indicate
Page 89 and 90:
Appendix E: Key informants survey q
Page 91 and 92:
Please indicate the significance of
Page 93 and 94:
How many Karezes and springs are fu
Page 95 and 96:
Appendix F: Stakeholders survey que
Page 97:
Have there been any changes occurri
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Province of Balochistan Pakistan

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