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Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market Analysis and Forecast Report 2015-2030

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<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> & <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong><br />

<strong>and</strong> <strong>Forecast</strong> <strong>Report</strong> <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>: Radiant Insights, Inc<br />

Due to the b<strong>and</strong>width limitations of their traditional voice-centric LMR (L<strong>and</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong><br />

Radio) networks, public safety agencies are keen to leverage commercial cellular network<br />

technology to support their growing broadb<strong>and</strong> application needs. Considering its thriving<br />

ecosystem, spectrum flexibility <strong>and</strong> performance metrics, <strong>LTE</strong> has emerged as the leading<br />

c<strong>and</strong>idate for public safety mobile broadb<strong>and</strong> networks.<br />

St<strong>and</strong>ardization efforts are still underway to enhance the <strong>LTE</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ard for public safety<br />

requirements, including MCPTT (Mission Critical PTT) functionality, group<br />

communications <strong>and</strong> proximity services. However, this has not deterred public safety<br />

agencies from early deployments of the technology, particularly in the Middle East <strong>and</strong> Asia<br />

Pacific regions.<br />

The Qatar MOI made headlines when it deployed a private 800 MHz <strong>LTE</strong> network to<br />

complement its existing TETRA network with broadb<strong>and</strong> applications. Since then, several<br />

private <strong>LTE</strong> networks have sprung up across the globe. For example, the Lijiang Police in<br />

China is utilizing a 20 site private <strong>LTE</strong> network for video surveillance <strong>and</strong> related<br />

applications.<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

While most initial public safety <strong>LTE</strong> investments were limited to small scale networks,<br />

South Korea’s nationwide public safety <strong>LTE</strong> rollout is expected to trigger significant largescale<br />

investments throughout the globe. Several early adopter private <strong>LTE</strong> deployments<br />

are also underway in the United States, as part of the planned FirstNet nationwide network.<br />

Europe, on the other h<strong>and</strong>, is predominantly seeing growing adoption of security hardened<br />

MVNO services that utilize commercial <strong>LTE</strong> networks to provide broadb<strong>and</strong> access for<br />

public safety subscribers. However, private <strong>LTE</strong> pilots are also underway in the region,<br />

including engagements with armed forces with a major focus on transportable base station<br />

form factors, such as CIAB (Cell-in-a-Box).<br />

Driven by the thriving ecosystem, we expect public safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure investments<br />

to grow at a CAGR of nearly 40% between <strong>2015</strong> <strong>and</strong> 2020. By the end of 2020,


infrastructure investments which include base stations (eNBs), mobile core <strong>and</strong> mobile<br />

backhaul gear will account for over $2 Billion. The market for ruggedized public safety <strong>LTE</strong><br />

devices will also witness significant growth, with an estimated 4 Million annual device<br />

shipments in 2020.<br />

The “<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> & <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong>: <strong>2015</strong> – <strong>2030</strong> – Opportunities,<br />

Challenges, Strategies & <strong>Forecast</strong>s” report presents an in-depth assessment of the global<br />

public safety <strong>LTE</strong> market, besides touching upon the wider LMR <strong>and</strong> mobile broadb<strong>and</strong><br />

industries.<br />

In addition to covering the business case, challenges, technology, spectrum allocation,<br />

industry roadmap, deployment case studies, vendor products, strategies, st<strong>and</strong>ardization<br />

initiatives <strong>and</strong> applications ecosystem for public safety <strong>LTE</strong>, the report also presents<br />

comprehensive forecasts for mobile broadb<strong>and</strong>, LMR <strong>and</strong> public safety <strong>LTE</strong> subscriptions<br />

from <strong>2015</strong> till <strong>2030</strong>. Also covered are public safety <strong>LTE</strong> service revenues, over both private<br />

<strong>and</strong> commercial networks. In addition, the report presents revenue <strong>and</strong> unit shipment<br />

forecasts for public safety <strong>LTE</strong> devices <strong>and</strong> infrastructure.<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

The report comes with an associated XLS datasheet covering quantitative data from all<br />

figures presented within the report, as well as a list <strong>and</strong> associated details of over 60 global<br />

public safety <strong>LTE</strong> network commitments (as of Q2’<strong>2015</strong>).<br />

Topics Covered<br />

The report covers the following topics:<br />

- Business case for public safety <strong>LTE</strong> <strong>and</strong> mobile broadb<strong>and</strong> services, including key<br />

benefits <strong>and</strong> challenges<br />

- Technology, economics, trends, commercial commitments <strong>and</strong> deployment case studies<br />

- List of public safety <strong>LTE</strong> deployments worldwide<br />

- <strong>Public</strong> safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure, devices <strong>and</strong> applications<br />

- Industry roadmap <strong>and</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ardization initiatives<br />

- Spectrum allocation, deployment models <strong>and</strong> funding strategies<br />

- Profiles <strong>and</strong> strategies of over 230 ecosystem players including public safety system<br />

integrators <strong>and</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure/device OEMs<br />

- TCO analysis of private <strong>and</strong> commercial public safety <strong>LTE</strong> deployments<br />

- Military <strong>and</strong> tactical <strong>LTE</strong> deployments


- <strong>Public</strong> safety <strong>LTE</strong> base station (eNB) form factor analysis<br />

- Exclusive interview transcripts from 6 key ecosystem players: Airbus Defence <strong>and</strong> Space,<br />

Airwave Solutions, CalAmp Corporation, Motorola Solutions, Oceus Networks <strong>and</strong> Star<br />

Solutions<br />

- Strategic recommendations for vendors, system integrators, public safety agencies <strong>and</strong><br />

wireless carriers<br />

- <strong>Market</strong> analysis <strong>and</strong> forecasts from <strong>2015</strong> till <strong>2030</strong><br />

<strong>Forecast</strong> Segmentation<br />

<strong>Market</strong> forecasts <strong>and</strong> historical figures are provided for each of the following submarkets:<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> (Private) Infrastructure<br />

Submarkets<br />

- RAN (Radio Access Network)<br />

- EPC (Evolved Packet Core) <strong>and</strong> Policy<br />

- <strong>Mobile</strong> Backhaul <strong>and</strong> Transport<br />

RAN Base Station (eNB) Mobility Categories<br />

- Fixed Base Stations<br />

- Transportable Base Stations<br />

RAN Base Station (eNB) Cell Size Categories<br />

- Macrocells<br />

- Small Cells<br />

Transportable RAN Base Station (eNB) Form Factor Categories<br />

- CIAB (Cell-in-a-Box)<br />

- COW (Cell-on-Wheels)<br />

- Airborne Cells<br />

<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Devices<br />

Submarkets<br />

- Private <strong>LTE</strong><br />

- Commercial <strong>LTE</strong>


Form Factor Categories<br />

- Smartphones & H<strong>and</strong>portable Terminals<br />

- Vehicle Mount Routers & Terminals<br />

- Tablets & Notebook PCs<br />

- USB Dongles & Others<br />

<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Subscriptions & Service Revenue<br />

Submarkets<br />

- Private <strong>LTE</strong><br />

- Commercial <strong>LTE</strong><br />

<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> User Subscriptions over Private <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong><br />

Submarkets<br />

- Private <strong>LTE</strong><br />

- Private WiMAX<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> User Subscriptions over Commercial <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong><br />

Submarkets<br />

- CDMA2000/EV-DO<br />

- W-CDMA/HSPA<br />

- WiMAX<br />

- <strong>LTE</strong><br />

- 5G & Beyond<br />

LMR Subscriptions<br />

Submarkets<br />

- Analog<br />

- DMR<br />

- dPMR, NXDN & PDT<br />

- P25<br />

- TETRA<br />

- Tetrapol<br />

- Others


LMR Data Subscriptions<br />

Submarkets<br />

- P25 - Phase 1<br />

- P25 - Phase 2<br />

- TETRA<br />

- TEDS<br />

- Tetrapol<br />

- Others<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Applications<br />

Submarkets<br />

- Video Applications<br />

- GIS, AVLS <strong>and</strong> Mapping<br />

- <strong>Mobile</strong> VPN Access & Security<br />

- CAD (Computer Aided Dispatching)<br />

- Remote Database Access<br />

- Telemetry <strong>and</strong> Remote Diagnostics<br />

- Bulk Multimedia/Data Transfers<br />

- PTT & Voice over <strong>LTE</strong><br />

- Situational Awareness Applications<br />

Regional Segmentation<br />

The following regional markets are covered:<br />

- Asia Pacific<br />

- Eastern Europe<br />

- Latin & Central America<br />

- Middle East & Africa<br />

- North America<br />

- Western Europe<br />

Key Questions Answered<br />

The report provides answers to the following key questions:<br />

- How big is the public safety <strong>LTE</strong> opportunity?<br />

- What trends, challenges <strong>and</strong> barriers are influencing its growth?<br />

- How is the ecosystem evolving by segment <strong>and</strong> region?


- What will the market size be in 2020 <strong>and</strong> at what rate will it grow?<br />

- Which countries <strong>and</strong> submarkets will see the highest percentage of growth?<br />

- How does st<strong>and</strong>ardization impact the adoption of <strong>LTE</strong> for public safety applications?<br />

- When will MCPTT <strong>and</strong> proximity services see large scale proliferation?<br />

- What is the status of private <strong>LTE</strong> rollouts <strong>and</strong> public safety MVNO offerings across the<br />

globe?<br />

- What opportunities exist for commercial wireless carriers <strong>and</strong> MVNOs in the public safety<br />

<strong>LTE</strong> market?<br />

- Is there a market for 400 MHz <strong>LTE</strong> networks?<br />

- What are the prospects of tactical, rapidly deployable <strong>and</strong> airborne <strong>LTE</strong> solutions?<br />

- How can public safety agencies leverage unused spectrum resources to fund private <strong>LTE</strong><br />

networks?<br />

- What strategies should system integrators <strong>and</strong> vendors adopt to remain competitive?<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

Key Findings<br />

The report has the following key findings:<br />

- We expect public safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure investments to grow at a CAGR of nearly 40%<br />

between <strong>2015</strong> <strong>and</strong> 2020. By the end of 2020, infrastructure investments which include<br />

base stations (eNBs), mobile core <strong>and</strong> mobile backhaul gear will account for over $2 Billion<br />

- The market for ruggedized public safety <strong>LTE</strong> devices will witness similar growth, with an<br />

estimated 4 Million annual device shipments in 2020<br />

- By 2020, the installed base of private public safety <strong>LTE</strong> base stations (eNBs) will reach<br />

150,000. By that time, transportable <strong>LTE</strong> solutions will account for close to 20% of all<br />

public safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure investments<br />

- Commercial carriers <strong>and</strong> public safety MVNOs will pocket over $8 Billion in public safety<br />

<strong>LTE</strong> service revenue by the end of 2020, following growth at a CAGR of 50% between <strong>2015</strong><br />

<strong>and</strong> 2020<br />

- Almost all major LMR industry players are leveraging partnerships with established <strong>LTE</strong><br />

infrastructure vendors such as Nokia, Huawei, Ericsson <strong>and</strong> Alcatel-Lucent, to offer end-toend<br />

<strong>LTE</strong> solutions<br />

- Consolidation efforts are continuing to take place throughout the industry, particularly<br />

among the largest <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure vendors <strong>and</strong> public safety system integrators


Table of Content<br />

1 Chapter 1: Introduction 21<br />

1.1 Executive Summary 21<br />

1.2 Key Findings 23<br />

1.3 Topics Covered 24<br />

1.4 <strong>Forecast</strong> Segmentation 25<br />

1.5 Key Questions Answered 27<br />

1.6 Methodology 28<br />

1.7 Target Audience 29<br />

1.8 Companies Mentioned 30<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

2 Chapter 2: An Overview of the <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong><br />

36<br />

2.1 Narrowb<strong>and</strong> LMR (L<strong>and</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong> Radio) Systems in <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 36<br />

2.1.1 LMR <strong>Market</strong> Size 37<br />

2.1.1.1 Analog LMR 37<br />

2.1.1.2 DMR 38<br />

2.1.1.3 dPMR, NXDN & PDT 38<br />

2.1.1.4 P25 39<br />

2.1.1.5 TETRA 39<br />

2.1.1.6 Tetrapol 40<br />

2.1.1.7 Other LMR Technologies 40<br />

2.1.2 The Perceived Role of <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> in <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> Scenarios 41<br />

2.1.3 The Limitations of LMR Data Capabilities 41<br />

2.2 <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> for <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 42<br />

2.2.1 Partnerships with Commercial Carriers 42<br />

2.2.2 Private <strong>LTE</strong> <strong>and</strong> WiMAX Deployments 42<br />

2.3 How Big is the <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong>? 42<br />

2.3.1 Will the <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> Segment Witness the Same Level of Growth as the Consumer<br />

Segment? 43<br />

2.3.2 What are the Growth Drivers? 43<br />

2.3.3 Will LMR Systems Continue to Support Mission-Critical Voice? 45<br />

2.4 The Use of Commercial <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> Technology for <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 46<br />

2.5 Why <strong>LTE</strong>? 46<br />

2.5.1 Performance Metrics 46


2.5.2 Coexistence, Interoperability <strong>and</strong> Spectrum Flexibility 47<br />

2.5.3 A Thriving Ecosystem 47<br />

2.5.4 OPEX Reduction 48<br />

2.6 <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Technology & Architecture 49<br />

2.6.1 E-UTRAN – The <strong>LTE</strong> RAN (Radio Access Network) 50<br />

2.6.2 TDD vs. FDD 51<br />

2.6.3 UE (User Equipment) 51<br />

2.6.3.1 Smartphones & H<strong>and</strong>portable Terminals 51<br />

2.6.3.2 Vehicle Mount Routers & Terminals 52<br />

2.6.3.3 Tablets & Notebook PCs 52<br />

2.6.3.4 USB Dongles & Others 52<br />

2.6.4 EPC (Evolved Packet Core) – The <strong>LTE</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong> Core 53<br />

2.6.4.1 SGW (Serving Gateway) 53<br />

2.6.4.2 PGW (Packet Data Network Gateway) 53<br />

Browse Full <strong>Report</strong> With TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/thepublic-safety-lte-<strong>and</strong>-mobile-broadb<strong>and</strong>-market-<strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>-opportunitieschallenges-strategies-<strong>and</strong>-forecasts<br />

2.6.4.3 MME (Mobility Management Entity) 53<br />

2.6.4.4 HSS (Home Subscriber Server) 54<br />

2.6.4.5 PCRF (Policy Charging <strong>and</strong> Rules Function) 54<br />

2.6.5 LMR Network Integration <strong>and</strong> Inter-Working 54<br />

2.6.6 Support for Roaming in <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> 55<br />

2.6.7 Inter-System Roaming 55<br />

2.6.8 Intra-System Roaming to Commercial Carriers 56<br />

2.7 <strong>LTE</strong>-Advanced & 5G: Implications for <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 57<br />

2.7.1 The Move Towards <strong>LTE</strong>-Advanced Networks 57<br />

2.7.2 Impact on <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Rollouts 57<br />

2.7.3 5G Requirements: Looking Towards the Future 58<br />

2.8 <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Deployment Models 59<br />

2.8.1 Private <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> 59<br />

2.8.2 Shared Commercial <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong>: Private-<strong>Public</strong> Partnerships 59<br />

2.8.3 <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Access over Commercial Networks 59<br />

2.8.4 Hosted Core <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Networks 60<br />

2.9 Funding Models for Private <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Network Deployment 60<br />

2.9.1 BOO (Built, Owned <strong>and</strong> Operated) by Integrator/Vendor 60<br />

2.9.2 Owned <strong>and</strong> Operated by the Government Authority 60<br />

2.9.3 Local Agency Hosted Core 61


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