Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market Analysis and Forecast Report 2015-2030
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<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> & <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>Forecast</strong> <strong>Report</strong> <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2030</strong>: Radiant Insights, Inc<br />
Due to the b<strong>and</strong>width limitations of their traditional voice-centric LMR (L<strong>and</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong><br />
Radio) networks, public safety agencies are keen to leverage commercial cellular network<br />
technology to support their growing broadb<strong>and</strong> application needs. Considering its thriving<br />
ecosystem, spectrum flexibility <strong>and</strong> performance metrics, <strong>LTE</strong> has emerged as the leading<br />
c<strong>and</strong>idate for public safety mobile broadb<strong>and</strong> networks.<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ardization efforts are still underway to enhance the <strong>LTE</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ard for public safety<br />
requirements, including MCPTT (Mission Critical PTT) functionality, group<br />
communications <strong>and</strong> proximity services. However, this has not deterred public safety<br />
agencies from early deployments of the technology, particularly in the Middle East <strong>and</strong> Asia<br />
Pacific regions.<br />
The Qatar MOI made headlines when it deployed a private 800 MHz <strong>LTE</strong> network to<br />
complement its existing TETRA network with broadb<strong>and</strong> applications. Since then, several<br />
private <strong>LTE</strong> networks have sprung up across the globe. For example, the Lijiang Police in<br />
China is utilizing a 20 site private <strong>LTE</strong> network for video surveillance <strong>and</strong> related<br />
applications.<br />
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While most initial public safety <strong>LTE</strong> investments were limited to small scale networks,<br />
South Korea’s nationwide public safety <strong>LTE</strong> rollout is expected to trigger significant largescale<br />
investments throughout the globe. Several early adopter private <strong>LTE</strong> deployments<br />
are also underway in the United States, as part of the planned FirstNet nationwide network.<br />
Europe, on the other h<strong>and</strong>, is predominantly seeing growing adoption of security hardened<br />
MVNO services that utilize commercial <strong>LTE</strong> networks to provide broadb<strong>and</strong> access for<br />
public safety subscribers. However, private <strong>LTE</strong> pilots are also underway in the region,<br />
including engagements with armed forces with a major focus on transportable base station<br />
form factors, such as CIAB (Cell-in-a-Box).<br />
Driven by the thriving ecosystem, we expect public safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure investments<br />
to grow at a CAGR of nearly 40% between <strong>2015</strong> <strong>and</strong> 2020. By the end of 2020,
infrastructure investments which include base stations (eNBs), mobile core <strong>and</strong> mobile<br />
backhaul gear will account for over $2 Billion. The market for ruggedized public safety <strong>LTE</strong><br />
devices will also witness significant growth, with an estimated 4 Million annual device<br />
shipments in 2020.<br />
The “<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> & <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong>: <strong>2015</strong> – <strong>2030</strong> – Opportunities,<br />
Challenges, Strategies & <strong>Forecast</strong>s” report presents an in-depth assessment of the global<br />
public safety <strong>LTE</strong> market, besides touching upon the wider LMR <strong>and</strong> mobile broadb<strong>and</strong><br />
industries.<br />
In addition to covering the business case, challenges, technology, spectrum allocation,<br />
industry roadmap, deployment case studies, vendor products, strategies, st<strong>and</strong>ardization<br />
initiatives <strong>and</strong> applications ecosystem for public safety <strong>LTE</strong>, the report also presents<br />
comprehensive forecasts for mobile broadb<strong>and</strong>, LMR <strong>and</strong> public safety <strong>LTE</strong> subscriptions<br />
from <strong>2015</strong> till <strong>2030</strong>. Also covered are public safety <strong>LTE</strong> service revenues, over both private<br />
<strong>and</strong> commercial networks. In addition, the report presents revenue <strong>and</strong> unit shipment<br />
forecasts for public safety <strong>LTE</strong> devices <strong>and</strong> infrastructure.<br />
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The report comes with an associated XLS datasheet covering quantitative data from all<br />
figures presented within the report, as well as a list <strong>and</strong> associated details of over 60 global<br />
public safety <strong>LTE</strong> network commitments (as of Q2’<strong>2015</strong>).<br />
Topics Covered<br />
The report covers the following topics:<br />
- Business case for public safety <strong>LTE</strong> <strong>and</strong> mobile broadb<strong>and</strong> services, including key<br />
benefits <strong>and</strong> challenges<br />
- Technology, economics, trends, commercial commitments <strong>and</strong> deployment case studies<br />
- List of public safety <strong>LTE</strong> deployments worldwide<br />
- <strong>Public</strong> safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure, devices <strong>and</strong> applications<br />
- Industry roadmap <strong>and</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ardization initiatives<br />
- Spectrum allocation, deployment models <strong>and</strong> funding strategies<br />
- Profiles <strong>and</strong> strategies of over 230 ecosystem players including public safety system<br />
integrators <strong>and</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure/device OEMs<br />
- TCO analysis of private <strong>and</strong> commercial public safety <strong>LTE</strong> deployments<br />
- Military <strong>and</strong> tactical <strong>LTE</strong> deployments
- <strong>Public</strong> safety <strong>LTE</strong> base station (eNB) form factor analysis<br />
- Exclusive interview transcripts from 6 key ecosystem players: Airbus Defence <strong>and</strong> Space,<br />
Airwave Solutions, CalAmp Corporation, Motorola Solutions, Oceus Networks <strong>and</strong> Star<br />
Solutions<br />
- Strategic recommendations for vendors, system integrators, public safety agencies <strong>and</strong><br />
wireless carriers<br />
- <strong>Market</strong> analysis <strong>and</strong> forecasts from <strong>2015</strong> till <strong>2030</strong><br />
<strong>Forecast</strong> Segmentation<br />
<strong>Market</strong> forecasts <strong>and</strong> historical figures are provided for each of the following submarkets:<br />
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<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> (Private) Infrastructure<br />
Submarkets<br />
- RAN (Radio Access Network)<br />
- EPC (Evolved Packet Core) <strong>and</strong> Policy<br />
- <strong>Mobile</strong> Backhaul <strong>and</strong> Transport<br />
RAN Base Station (eNB) Mobility Categories<br />
- Fixed Base Stations<br />
- Transportable Base Stations<br />
RAN Base Station (eNB) Cell Size Categories<br />
- Macrocells<br />
- Small Cells<br />
Transportable RAN Base Station (eNB) Form Factor Categories<br />
- CIAB (Cell-in-a-Box)<br />
- COW (Cell-on-Wheels)<br />
- Airborne Cells<br />
<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Devices<br />
Submarkets<br />
- Private <strong>LTE</strong><br />
- Commercial <strong>LTE</strong>
Form Factor Categories<br />
- Smartphones & H<strong>and</strong>portable Terminals<br />
- Vehicle Mount Routers & Terminals<br />
- Tablets & Notebook PCs<br />
- USB Dongles & Others<br />
<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Subscriptions & Service Revenue<br />
Submarkets<br />
- Private <strong>LTE</strong><br />
- Commercial <strong>LTE</strong><br />
<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> User Subscriptions over Private <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong><br />
Submarkets<br />
- Private <strong>LTE</strong><br />
- Private WiMAX<br />
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<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> User Subscriptions over Commercial <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong><br />
Submarkets<br />
- CDMA2000/EV-DO<br />
- W-CDMA/HSPA<br />
- WiMAX<br />
- <strong>LTE</strong><br />
- 5G & Beyond<br />
LMR Subscriptions<br />
Submarkets<br />
- Analog<br />
- DMR<br />
- dPMR, NXDN & PDT<br />
- P25<br />
- TETRA<br />
- Tetrapol<br />
- Others
LMR Data Subscriptions<br />
Submarkets<br />
- P25 - Phase 1<br />
- P25 - Phase 2<br />
- TETRA<br />
- TEDS<br />
- Tetrapol<br />
- Others<br />
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<strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Applications<br />
Submarkets<br />
- Video Applications<br />
- GIS, AVLS <strong>and</strong> Mapping<br />
- <strong>Mobile</strong> VPN Access & Security<br />
- CAD (Computer Aided Dispatching)<br />
- Remote Database Access<br />
- Telemetry <strong>and</strong> Remote Diagnostics<br />
- Bulk Multimedia/Data Transfers<br />
- PTT & Voice over <strong>LTE</strong><br />
- Situational Awareness Applications<br />
Regional Segmentation<br />
The following regional markets are covered:<br />
- Asia Pacific<br />
- Eastern Europe<br />
- Latin & Central America<br />
- Middle East & Africa<br />
- North America<br />
- Western Europe<br />
Key Questions Answered<br />
The report provides answers to the following key questions:<br />
- How big is the public safety <strong>LTE</strong> opportunity?<br />
- What trends, challenges <strong>and</strong> barriers are influencing its growth?<br />
- How is the ecosystem evolving by segment <strong>and</strong> region?
- What will the market size be in 2020 <strong>and</strong> at what rate will it grow?<br />
- Which countries <strong>and</strong> submarkets will see the highest percentage of growth?<br />
- How does st<strong>and</strong>ardization impact the adoption of <strong>LTE</strong> for public safety applications?<br />
- When will MCPTT <strong>and</strong> proximity services see large scale proliferation?<br />
- What is the status of private <strong>LTE</strong> rollouts <strong>and</strong> public safety MVNO offerings across the<br />
globe?<br />
- What opportunities exist for commercial wireless carriers <strong>and</strong> MVNOs in the public safety<br />
<strong>LTE</strong> market?<br />
- Is there a market for 400 MHz <strong>LTE</strong> networks?<br />
- What are the prospects of tactical, rapidly deployable <strong>and</strong> airborne <strong>LTE</strong> solutions?<br />
- How can public safety agencies leverage unused spectrum resources to fund private <strong>LTE</strong><br />
networks?<br />
- What strategies should system integrators <strong>and</strong> vendors adopt to remain competitive?<br />
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Key Findings<br />
The report has the following key findings:<br />
- We expect public safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure investments to grow at a CAGR of nearly 40%<br />
between <strong>2015</strong> <strong>and</strong> 2020. By the end of 2020, infrastructure investments which include<br />
base stations (eNBs), mobile core <strong>and</strong> mobile backhaul gear will account for over $2 Billion<br />
- The market for ruggedized public safety <strong>LTE</strong> devices will witness similar growth, with an<br />
estimated 4 Million annual device shipments in 2020<br />
- By 2020, the installed base of private public safety <strong>LTE</strong> base stations (eNBs) will reach<br />
150,000. By that time, transportable <strong>LTE</strong> solutions will account for close to 20% of all<br />
public safety <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure investments<br />
- Commercial carriers <strong>and</strong> public safety MVNOs will pocket over $8 Billion in public safety<br />
<strong>LTE</strong> service revenue by the end of 2020, following growth at a CAGR of 50% between <strong>2015</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> 2020<br />
- Almost all major LMR industry players are leveraging partnerships with established <strong>LTE</strong><br />
infrastructure vendors such as Nokia, Huawei, Ericsson <strong>and</strong> Alcatel-Lucent, to offer end-toend<br />
<strong>LTE</strong> solutions<br />
- Consolidation efforts are continuing to take place throughout the industry, particularly<br />
among the largest <strong>LTE</strong> infrastructure vendors <strong>and</strong> public safety system integrators
Table of Content<br />
1 Chapter 1: Introduction 21<br />
1.1 Executive Summary 21<br />
1.2 Key Findings 23<br />
1.3 Topics Covered 24<br />
1.4 <strong>Forecast</strong> Segmentation 25<br />
1.5 Key Questions Answered 27<br />
1.6 Methodology 28<br />
1.7 Target Audience 29<br />
1.8 Companies Mentioned 30<br />
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2 Chapter 2: An Overview of the <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong><br />
36<br />
2.1 Narrowb<strong>and</strong> LMR (L<strong>and</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong> Radio) Systems in <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 36<br />
2.1.1 LMR <strong>Market</strong> Size 37<br />
2.1.1.1 Analog LMR 37<br />
2.1.1.2 DMR 38<br />
2.1.1.3 dPMR, NXDN & PDT 38<br />
2.1.1.4 P25 39<br />
2.1.1.5 TETRA 39<br />
2.1.1.6 Tetrapol 40<br />
2.1.1.7 Other LMR Technologies 40<br />
2.1.2 The Perceived Role of <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> in <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> Scenarios 41<br />
2.1.3 The Limitations of LMR Data Capabilities 41<br />
2.2 <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> for <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 42<br />
2.2.1 Partnerships with Commercial Carriers 42<br />
2.2.2 Private <strong>LTE</strong> <strong>and</strong> WiMAX Deployments 42<br />
2.3 How Big is the <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> <strong>Market</strong>? 42<br />
2.3.1 Will the <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> Segment Witness the Same Level of Growth as the Consumer<br />
Segment? 43<br />
2.3.2 What are the Growth Drivers? 43<br />
2.3.3 Will LMR Systems Continue to Support Mission-Critical Voice? 45<br />
2.4 The Use of Commercial <strong>Mobile</strong> <strong>Broadb<strong>and</strong></strong> Technology for <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 46<br />
2.5 Why <strong>LTE</strong>? 46<br />
2.5.1 Performance Metrics 46
2.5.2 Coexistence, Interoperability <strong>and</strong> Spectrum Flexibility 47<br />
2.5.3 A Thriving Ecosystem 47<br />
2.5.4 OPEX Reduction 48<br />
2.6 <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Technology & Architecture 49<br />
2.6.1 E-UTRAN – The <strong>LTE</strong> RAN (Radio Access Network) 50<br />
2.6.2 TDD vs. FDD 51<br />
2.6.3 UE (User Equipment) 51<br />
2.6.3.1 Smartphones & H<strong>and</strong>portable Terminals 51<br />
2.6.3.2 Vehicle Mount Routers & Terminals 52<br />
2.6.3.3 Tablets & Notebook PCs 52<br />
2.6.3.4 USB Dongles & Others 52<br />
2.6.4 EPC (Evolved Packet Core) – The <strong>LTE</strong> <strong>Mobile</strong> Core 53<br />
2.6.4.1 SGW (Serving Gateway) 53<br />
2.6.4.2 PGW (Packet Data Network Gateway) 53<br />
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2.6.4.3 MME (Mobility Management Entity) 53<br />
2.6.4.4 HSS (Home Subscriber Server) 54<br />
2.6.4.5 PCRF (Policy Charging <strong>and</strong> Rules Function) 54<br />
2.6.5 LMR Network Integration <strong>and</strong> Inter-Working 54<br />
2.6.6 Support for Roaming in <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> 55<br />
2.6.7 Inter-System Roaming 55<br />
2.6.8 Intra-System Roaming to Commercial Carriers 56<br />
2.7 <strong>LTE</strong>-Advanced & 5G: Implications for <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> 57<br />
2.7.1 The Move Towards <strong>LTE</strong>-Advanced Networks 57<br />
2.7.2 Impact on <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Rollouts 57<br />
2.7.3 5G Requirements: Looking Towards the Future 58<br />
2.8 <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Deployment Models 59<br />
2.8.1 Private <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> 59<br />
2.8.2 Shared Commercial <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong>: Private-<strong>Public</strong> Partnerships 59<br />
2.8.3 <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Access over Commercial Networks 59<br />
2.8.4 Hosted Core <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Networks 60<br />
2.9 Funding Models for Private <strong>Public</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>LTE</strong> Network Deployment 60<br />
2.9.1 BOO (Built, Owned <strong>and</strong> Operated) by Integrator/Vendor 60<br />
2.9.2 Owned <strong>and</strong> Operated by the Government Authority 60<br />
2.9.3 Local Agency Hosted Core 61
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