Boxoffice - October 2015

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BOX OFFICE BREAKOUTS OSCAR RACE PREVIEW WILL 2015’S CONTENDERS BE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE? by Phil Contrino n The Oscar race is coming into sharper focus now that two prominent film festivals—Telluride and Toronto—have introduced the world to some of the early contenders. Some films take off, while others fall flat. It’s the same story every year. It’s actually kind of funny that the Oscar season gets started at the same time as the NFL season and the phenomenon that is fantasy football, because the dynamics are kind of similar. Right now football fans around the country are talking about sleepers and duds in the same way that Oscar prognosticators are assessing the race. Sounding great on paper is one thing, but it’s all about execution. Last year’s crop of Best Picture nominees wasn’t a very commercially successful bunch. The Academy missed the opportunity to recognize such huge hits as Gone Girl, Interstellar, and Guardians of the Galaxy in the Best Picture race. Will this year be any better? This month I’ve taken a closer look at the commercial prospects of some of the key contenders. SPOTLIGHT Many influential Oscar pundits are calling this real-life story about Boston Globe journalists exposing cover-ups in the Catholic Church (starring Michael Keaton, above) a lock for a Best Picture nomination, which would mark a new accomplishment for distributor Open Road. Unfortunately, films about journalism have a spotty track record in terms of ticket sales. Such genre classics as The Insider and Zodiac received plenty of critical recognition but failed to catch on in a significant way at the box office. STEVE JOBS There’s no shortage of praise for Danny Boyle’s film about the tech icon. The marketing campaign is already very strong, and it’s sure to intensify as we get closer to release. There’s no reason this one can’t exceed the success of The Social Network. THE DANISH GIRL Oscar pundits are divided on the potential of this one, but most agree that Eddie Redmayne (right) should have no problem snagging a Best Actor nod. The subject matter—a transgender pioneer’s journey in the early 1900s—will tap into the cultural discussion about transgender rights that’s currently going strong. LGBT moviegoers and their allies will show up in support. BLACK MASS Isn’t it great to watch Johnny Depp (left) ditch his cartoony shtick and deliver a tough-asnails performance? It’ll be very surprising if he doesn’t end up on the Best Actor list, but the film itself looks like it will probably be overshadowed. The commercial prospects are high for this one, and U.K. grosses augur well for a strong North American tally. 22 BoxOffice ® Pro OCTOBER 2015
PLENTY OF UNSEEN FILMS REMAIN … Much like a running back who really pops in Week 5, the season will likely be shaped in a big way by some films that still haven’t screened. The two biggest wild cards are Joy and The Revenant. Both films carry strong Oscar pedigrees, and they could easily dominate key categories if the execution is there. n THE MARTIAN This crowd-pleaser should do very well in tech categories, and it also has a good shot at ending up in competition for Best Picture. Director Ridley Scott and a diverse cast led by Matt Damon (above) have crafted one of the most emotionally rewarding sci-fi films ever released. The Martian should easily breeze past $500 million globally. OCTOBER 2015 BoxOffice ® Pro 23
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Boxoffice - October 2015

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