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S E P A R A T E P R IN T<br />
LAW AND STATE<br />
A BIANNUAL COLLECTION<br />
OF REC EN T GERMAN CONTRIBUTIONS TO<br />
TH ESE FIELDS<br />
VOLUME <strong>17</strong><br />
/.'.A ./,.<br />
'<br />
' '<br />
. . / l £<br />
• —'* . - • ’<br />
'! ■ \<br />
Edited in Conjunction with<br />
Numerous Members of German Universities<br />
<strong>and</strong> Research Institutions by the ■<br />
Institute for Scientific Co-operation
A<br />
#<br />
UNDERDEVELOPMENT, DEPENDENCIA, AND<br />
MODERNIZATION THEORY<br />
by<br />
Professor Dr. J ohann Hellwege<br />
University o f Bielefeld<br />
Some Observations on the Theoretical Discussion o f the Past Decade<br />
The first decade of the predominance of the concept “dependencia” in<br />
the Latin-American social sciences is coming to a close. The spread of the<br />
concept of dependencia to explain underdevelopment well beyond Latin<br />
America was frequently considered the end of the series of the theories of<br />
development which predominated up into the 1960’s <strong>and</strong> which, in general<br />
usage, were classified under the collective concept of “theories of<br />
modernization”. Since then, sceptical voices have been loudly raised warning<br />
against an overestimation of the explanatory value of “dependencia”<br />
<strong>and</strong> counselling a return to scholarly common sense. The frequendy emotional<br />
controversy between the “dependencistas” <strong>and</strong> modernization theorists<br />
has contributed little toward an objective analysis of contemporary<br />
Latin-American developmental problems. All too frequently empirical<br />
evidence has been the first victim of the dispute. Used as a new paradigm,<br />
“dependencia” has often degenerated into a pseudoconcept which tries to<br />
explain everything in general <strong>and</strong> hence could explain nothing in particular.<br />
As a “deus ex machina”, “dependencia” had to be made to explain<br />
every phenomenon which in some way appeared “false” or “harmful”<br />
within the framework of Latin-American social development. Abusing<br />
this concept by absolutizing it - when it otherwise could have been used<br />
to good avail by selectively applying it — has been called, with some<br />
justification, a variety of Latin-American nationalism or madnsmo. Non-<br />
Latin-American, in particular German, social scientists <strong>and</strong> full-time<br />
ideologues, however, have also done their bit toward greatly over-working<br />
what was originally only a tentative, descriptive category rather than
46 Johann Hellwege<br />
a theory claiming total explainability. Meanwhile, on the other h<strong>and</strong>,<br />
theories of modernization have been further developed, expecially in the<br />
discipline of historiography, <strong>and</strong> at the same time relativized. Precisely<br />
the experience of the dubious nature of the so-called “western model”<br />
has broken the arrogant back of the universal claim to validity made by<br />
individual theorems from the complex of inconsistent descriptive theories<br />
of modernization. Particularly in view of the fact that the actual historical<br />
phenomenon of Latin America’s dependence upon the western<br />
industrialized countries can in no way be denied, it seems to be time to<br />
reconsider the explanatory value of the two theory complexes which have<br />
been in part artificially contrasted against each other.<br />
Here it is useful to recall the conditions under which dependentismo<br />
originated. For these conditions are partially able to explain weaknesses<br />
<strong>and</strong> particular qualities of the various dependencia theories, which in the<br />
following, for obvious reasons, must be treated essentially in a form which<br />
reduces them to important assumptions rather than in their individual<br />
variations. Similar considerations apply to the concept of “dependencia”<br />
itself, whose substance is by no means clearly <strong>and</strong> unambiguously defined<br />
in the literature. The first decade of development had been ushered in<br />
with great expectations. When it came to an end, the concepts of a universal,<br />
linear developmental process from “traditional” into “modem”<br />
society seemed an utter failure. These concepts, which essentially had been<br />
advocated by North American social scientists, were ultimately ahistorical<br />
<strong>and</strong> involved industrial-capitalist <strong>and</strong> liberal-democratic societies, especially<br />
those of an Anglo-American type. In their practical application, they<br />
acquired the form of development policy or concrete development programmes<br />
promoted by the nation-state. It was primarily Latin-American<br />
social scientists who in the mid-1960’s attacked the crude, dualistic,<br />
ichotomous social model of early theories of modernization. Quite ostracized<br />
by their defensive opponents, they designed a counter-concept which<br />
rep aced the dualism with a monism <strong>and</strong> the dichotomy “traditional v.<br />
modern” with another one, viz. “capitalist development v. underdevelopment<br />
. Modernization theories were inverted, <strong>and</strong> underdevelopment in<br />
t e ird World was no longer defined as a preliminary <strong>and</strong> transitory<br />
stage toward development, but as a consequence of <strong>and</strong> precondition for<br />
j e , urt er development of the industrial-capitalist, western world. Une.r,<br />
f Ve °Pment ar>d development were conceived as necessary components<br />
11 !T « C j COPe a s*ngle, world-wide process. The existence of so-<br />
“tucf • •tl° em sectors” *n developing societies, usually in the shape of<br />
f nm^ Sr°^Ps drawn from a middle class previously highly valued<br />
ns o evelopment strategy, henceforth was no longer an opti
Underdevelopment, Dcpcndcncia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 47<br />
mistic ray of hope for a development which would be as autonomous as<br />
possible, but instead was considered an element which functionally complemented<br />
the so-called “traditional sectors” within the process of the underdevelopment<br />
of a society dependent upon the western industrial metropolises.<br />
The interaction of traditional oligarchies <strong>and</strong> new middle classes<br />
as client classes of the western industrial states was conceived as a manifestation<br />
of how dependencia had been internalized. Underdevelopment<br />
<strong>and</strong> development were understood as necessary <strong>and</strong> as structurally allied<br />
opposite poles within the scope of a world-wide process, namely the formation<br />
<strong>and</strong> further evolution of western industrial capitalism under the<br />
conditions of establishing <strong>and</strong> entrenching underdevelopment in the socalled<br />
developing countries1.<br />
Two observations appear to vindicate this radical rejection of previous<br />
notions about development.<br />
1. Modernization, understood as industrialization, appeared in the mid-<br />
1960’s to have entered into a fatal dead-end street. Industrialization via<br />
the road of import substitution had not reduced dependency. National<br />
industrialization policies had not been able to halt penetration by multinational<br />
concerns, but on the contrary promoted it. Foreign investors remained<br />
in leading positions in the national industrialization process. Inequality<br />
of income distribution, the problem of marginalization <strong>and</strong> unemployment<br />
had grown even further.<br />
2. The middle classes, the beneficaries hitherto of industrialization<br />
strategy “hacia adentro”, again turned their backs on the lower classes<br />
about this time <strong>and</strong>, fearing revolutionary changes <strong>and</strong> a revolution from<br />
below”, entered into a coalition with the traditional dominant classes of<br />
Latin American societies. In many states in Latin America the military s<br />
accession to power put paid to aspirations of political democratization ,<br />
aspirations which had been nourished by the expectation, as expressed in<br />
modernization theory, that industrialization necessarily presupposed <strong>and</strong><br />
would be accompanied by developments toward a democratic society. If<br />
one were inclined to ideological simplification, one could express the<br />
“suspicion” that the dependencia theories, which arose as an answer <strong>and</strong><br />
reaction to these theories, were propounded by Latin American social<br />
scientists who, wanting to compensate for their disappointment at the<br />
failure of the classes from which they originated, radically called into<br />
question their hitherto accepted roles <strong>and</strong> functions, as well as the basis of<br />
their thought <strong>and</strong> action previously recognized as valid. Thus ^ they<br />
also ultimately exonerated themselves from guilt <strong>and</strong> responsibility“. To<br />
be sure, it must be emphatically noted that this thoroughly underst<strong>and</strong>able<br />
disillusionment at the failure of developmental strategies, which
48 Johann Hellwege<br />
were bound up with great hopes, is still not an adequate reason for calling<br />
into question the general feasibility or the model function of western<br />
variations of modernization or industrialization, of which there have<br />
been <strong>and</strong> are many, <strong>and</strong> many different ones - quite apart from the fact<br />
that the development discussion itself, even in negation, remains dependent<br />
upon the horizon of experience of the world of the capitalist industrial<br />
state. To reject the universal-historical claim of the western model<br />
certainly does not mean that the western industrial state model cannot<br />
provide usable examples for present-day developing countries. In this<br />
context, precisely the set-backs <strong>and</strong> breakdowns which the West experienced<br />
as it modernized into industrial states would be of particular<br />
interest. Of course, due to the simultaneity of the processes of modern<br />
development <strong>and</strong> underdevelopment, today’s underdeveloped countries<br />
cannot simply follow the same road as today’s developed economies<br />
have done. Indeed, it is highly questionable whether autonomous industrialization<br />
is possible or even desirable under present international relationships<br />
of dependency <strong>and</strong> their effects on the economic backwardness<br />
of the developing countries3. However if today the possibility of a “dependent<br />
development“ (desarrollo dependiente) under a changed Brazilian<br />
industrialization strategy is already being discussed, as in Cardoso’s works,<br />
this demonstrates that among the dependencistas certain trends are at<br />
work toward a revision of the initial hard line. And the introduction of<br />
the concept of “Brazilian sub-imperialism” is rather more an expression<br />
of helplessness vis 4 vis an actual historical phenomenon which cannot<br />
be made to fit a theoretical postulate; such concept constructs hardly<br />
increase our possibilities for analysis. Whether or not such approaches can<br />
still meaningfully be included in the dependencia school is a question<br />
worth discussing.<br />
Like earlier theories of modernization, dependencia theories claim to<br />
provide a universal explanation, <strong>and</strong> for this reason are no more historical<br />
than the former. Though the basic characteristics of these dependencia<br />
theories cannot be traced here, they do display many weaknesses <strong>and</strong><br />
inconsistencies alongside some not inconsiderable advantages.<br />
Without any doubt, the dependencia theory —here used as a collective<br />
concept - does contain a large element of truth, if - as, e. g., according<br />
to Theotonio Dos Santos — dependencia is defined as a “situation” in<br />
which the economy of a certain group of countries is conditioned by the<br />
development <strong>and</strong> expansion of another economy which is subordinate to<br />
t e first, <strong>and</strong> if dependencia involves a “historical condition” which<br />
a ects a given structure of the world economy in such a way that a few<br />
countries can derive advantages to the detriment of other countries, <strong>and</strong>
Underdevelopment, Depcndcncia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 49<br />
the subordinate economy’s opportunities for development are thereby restricted4.<br />
Beyond this thoroughly plausible but by no means original or<br />
new information <strong>and</strong> situational description, however, dependencia theories<br />
do not constitute a uniform, coherent theoretical system of explanation.<br />
Frequendy diey do not involve theories, but at best provisional<br />
assumptions, perspectives or concepts which still want theoretical integration,<br />
as Puhle <strong>and</strong> others rightly emphasize5. This is surely no error,<br />
but rather a natural transitional stage toward theory formulation, provided<br />
that dependencia is not precipitately made into an apriori transhistorical<br />
framework of reference exempt from the need for empirical<br />
verification. The character of a science can hardly be attributed to those<br />
elements in the dependencia school who reject the requirements of empirical<br />
scrutinability <strong>and</strong> principle falsifiability of hypotheses as “bourgeois<br />
scholarly nit-picking” or as “cientificismo” (Dos Santos).<br />
We are still waiting in vain for arguments describing the essential<br />
characteristics of dependencia. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, one frequently encounters<br />
tautologies <strong>and</strong> circular arguments: dependent countries are those<br />
which lack a capacity for autonomous development. They lack this capacity<br />
because their structures are characterized by dependencia. In a world<br />
of growing interdependence, however, it would be interesting to know<br />
what makes <strong>and</strong> keeps dependent countries dependent, <strong>and</strong> why this happens.<br />
If some countries, such as Canada, exhibit a great number of traits<br />
of dependencia, but at the same time are rich <strong>and</strong> possess many of the<br />
characteristics of economically developed nations, then one would require<br />
of any dependencia theory that it be able to explain why some dependent<br />
countries are rich <strong>and</strong> others poor, especially since poverty on the other<br />
h<strong>and</strong> is “explained” as a product of the conditioning dependencia structure.<br />
Just as it can be stated, on the one h<strong>and</strong>, that the descriptive definitions<br />
of dependencia, such as those proposed by, e. g., Dos Santos, Sunkel<br />
or Furtado, have already proven their great value as heuristic research<br />
methods, so on the other h<strong>and</strong> it must be stated that descriptions of a<br />
situation are by no means an explanation of that situation. Even the previous<br />
periodization approaches to the formation of a historical typology<br />
of dependencia do not make up for the absence of explanatory theoretical<br />
approaches, though it must not be overlooked that in historiography too,<br />
there is a great impetus to trace the effects of changes in the form of<br />
western capitalism in the shape of structural changes of Latin American<br />
economy <strong>and</strong> society. The great merit of the dependencia approach was<br />
to have made virtually impossible the isolated mode of observation which<br />
regarded problems of the developing countries as “domestic” problems<br />
that could be solved without taking account of their involvement in the<br />
4 <strong>Law</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>State</strong>
50 Johann Hellwege<br />
world economic context. The deceptive self-assurance that progress could<br />
be made <strong>and</strong> transferred from the social-technological perspective of the<br />
western industrialized states has been challenged by looking at developmental<br />
problems from the viewpoint of the countries of the Third World.<br />
To the historian, many other notions which have been formulated as valid<br />
knowledge within the scope of dependencia theories, with considerable<br />
verbiage, often appear as mere truismus. “Structural heterogeneity” is<br />
simply the temporal <strong>and</strong> concrete coexistence of different developmental<br />
stages in various spheres of economics, society or politics — empirical<br />
contemporaneousness of the non-contemporaneous. History has really<br />
never been a matter of a straightforward, mathematical time. On the<br />
other h<strong>and</strong>, the dependencia school does not provide an adequate explanation<br />
of how the “structural heterogeneity” within present-day developing<br />
countries differs from phenomena such as the complementaryfunctional<br />
coexistence of the “rise of the western world” in the West <strong>and</strong><br />
of the Second Serfdom in the East in early modern Europe, or of the<br />
contemporary coexistence of the northern Italian industrial l<strong>and</strong>scape <strong>and</strong><br />
the Mezzogiorno. “Structural deformation” as a designation of concrete<br />
historical deviations from construed theoretical-typological models, is only<br />
a different form of circuitous argument, but just as banal8.<br />
Dependencia theories ultimately st<strong>and</strong> or fall on the basic assumption<br />
that capitalist development <strong>and</strong> underdevelopment are two sides of the<br />
same coin. The hypothesis deduced from this, that, e. g., the present-day<br />
western industrialized states never knew underdevelopment, so that precapitalist<br />
western Europe was never confronted with problems comparable<br />
to the difficulties of today’s developing countries, hardly st<strong>and</strong>s up<br />
to a historical analysis, although it can be seen that “underdevelopment”<br />
ultimately is recognizable <strong>and</strong> definable only in comparison to “development<br />
. Similarly, A. G. Frank has argued that Latin America became<br />
capitalist with the Conquista <strong>and</strong> consequently never experienced feudalism.<br />
His theory, which gave rise to vigorous <strong>and</strong> highly productive controversies,<br />
can by explained rather more by reference to schematic rigorism<br />
<strong>and</strong> an anti-modernization affect than to historical research. The<br />
father of the idea” may in this case have been the desire to demonstrate<br />
a strategy of revolution in Latin America which is said to be justified <strong>and</strong><br />
imperative within the framework of Marxist historical interpretation.<br />
This is accomplished by regarding capitalism as an already completed<br />
phase in Latin America, <strong>and</strong> the marginalized classes as the revolutionary<br />
proletarian potential to whom the future belongs8. Just as dependencia<br />
theories are, so to speak, powerless in the face of a phenomenon like the<br />
evelopnicnt of the U.S.A. from colonial dependency into an industrial
Underdevelopment, Dcpcndcncia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 51<br />
capitalist power par excellence, so too they have little to say about, e. g.,<br />
Spain’s or Portugal’s course of development from a “late feudal-early<br />
capitalist” - however one might agree to classify each individual case -<br />
imperial colonial power into a developing country. Of interest precisely<br />
in this context is the observation that A. G. Frank, one of the founding<br />
fathers of the dependencia theories, in a controversy with the Weberians<br />
<strong>and</strong> with almost total disregard of dependencia schema, succeeded in<br />
providing an extremely important contribution to the explanation of the<br />
developmental divergence between the U.S. <strong>and</strong> Latin America8.<br />
The dependencistas have until now not presented any stringent, empirical<br />
investigations to support the theory that the development of the<br />
formally independent Latin American states in the 19th century would<br />
necessarily have had to take place in the way in which it actually did. In<br />
the name of the purity of the dogma, too often the complexity of historical<br />
truth has been concealed10. The inadequacies of the dependencia<br />
approach as a historical-analytical category cannot be entered into in<br />
further detail here. As its essential weakness, we can emphasize that the<br />
multilayered quality of historical complexes of events <strong>and</strong> structures, such<br />
as colonialism, imperialism or even dependencia, cannot be comprehended<br />
using the dichotomous approach development v. underdevelopment.<br />
An analysis of contemporary Latin American problems reveals some<br />
particularly important incriminating logical <strong>and</strong> empirical weaknesses in<br />
existing dependencia theories. In the following, these shall be looked into<br />
in more detail.<br />
All dependencia theories start from the assumption that dependencia<br />
is caused by the uneven world economic development of capitalism which<br />
unilaterally benefits the industrial metropolises. This claim intentionally<br />
ignores similarly plausible, e. g., more complex possible explanations; this<br />
it does on the basis of an illogical statement. It surely cannot be denied,<br />
for example, that the United <strong>State</strong>s of America is a capitalist country,<br />
<strong>and</strong> that Latin America is in manifold ways economically, culturally, etc.<br />
dependent upon the U.S.A. However, this sequence of statements by no<br />
means implies that the first statement caused the situation described in<br />
the second statement. Great powers in all ages have forced dependency<br />
upon weaker neighbours. Soviet imperialism is no less a reality than the<br />
capitalist version. Moreover, there are startling parallels between the kind<br />
of economic dependency which the U.S.A. imposes on Latin America <strong>and</strong><br />
that which the Soviet Union has attempted to implement in, e. g., postwar<br />
Europe. Even the agents <strong>and</strong> clientele classes belonging to the infrastructure<br />
of dependencia are not difficult to ascertain in the socialist states of<br />
eastern Europe. Though there may be differences in the degree of penetra
5 2 Johann Hellwege<br />
tion, the major point, in the present context, is the similarity of the<br />
phenomena11.<br />
Just as Soviet imperialism cannot be justified by condemning U.S.<br />
imperialism in Latin America, so the reverse is also true: American imperialism<br />
cannot be made to seem a natural event by referring to similar<br />
contemporary phenomena. An incriminating weakness of dependenria<br />
theories is, however, their failure to recognize both versions. In this way<br />
dependencia precipitately becomes a political rallying cry like fascism or<br />
imperialism. Thus dependencia theory, under certain circumstances, can<br />
fulfil a thoroughly significant political function, but as a scientific theory<br />
it loses credibility when it refuses to take cognizance of non-capitalist<br />
dependency. Similarly, Marxist imperialism theory, due to its ideological<br />
predispositions, is reluctant to deal with non-capitalist imperialism. If,<br />
on the other h<strong>and</strong>, one resolves to recognize the existence today of at least<br />
two forms of imperialism, then it follows that the common denominator<br />
of the two kinds of imperialism mentioned here is rather less likely to<br />
be capitalism than presumably an unequal distribution of power. In this<br />
case the question of possible alternatives can no longer be solved simply<br />
by a negation of the world capitalist context; but on the other h<strong>and</strong>, more<br />
realistic alternative strategies become more readily possible, as will be<br />
shown.<br />
Dependencia approaches, as a rule, begin with the assumption that<br />
private foreign investment in every case has an exploitative character <strong>and</strong><br />
is inimical to Latin American development, or at most can facilitate<br />
dependent development” (Cardoso). This all too crude simplification of<br />
an extremely complex situation is in general inadequately <strong>and</strong> misleadingly<br />
grounded. If, by contrast, as in the works of Cardoso <strong>and</strong> others,<br />
the analysis includes carefully differentiated effects of different foreign<br />
investments, the dependencia concept loses its specific declarative value<br />
<strong>and</strong> could be replaced by the everyday notion of dependency.<br />
Valid objections can be raised against the treatment of foreign private<br />
investments as a monolithic phenomenon whose effects are in every case<br />
inimical to economic development. The foreign so-called extraction enterprises<br />
are known to have adaptive effects on national economies. Much<br />
can be said in favour of regarding these more as indigenous investments<br />
of the industrial countries which geographically happen to be located<br />
abroad1-. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, however, it is an entirely open question<br />
whether, e. g., Latin American governments are exonerated from blame<br />
when, despite admittedly limited domestic capital formation <strong>and</strong> the<br />
multiplicator effect of such foreign enterprises, they all too frequently<br />
accept expenditures, tariffs, etc. - which often have been received in
Underdevelopment, Dependencia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 53<br />
considerable amounts — as sufficient reason for avoiding serious efforts<br />
toward the reform of the taxation <strong>and</strong> finance system or toward resisting<br />
the trend to specialization in a few exports in the sphere of raw materials,<br />
whose harmful consequences are very soon manifest. It must also be conceded<br />
that there is not much conviction in the argument which ultimately<br />
amounted to a claim that the Latin American economy would be better off<br />
if» e- g-> mineral stores, whose exploitation would require the application<br />
of foreign private capital <strong>and</strong> imported technology, were not tapped13.<br />
Investments in the indigenous industry, however, produce quite different<br />
effects than do investments in the “extraction” sector; here, for the<br />
moment, we may leave open the question of whether the latter should be<br />
ultimately considered as harmful or beneficial. Again, other investments,<br />
such as those in the area of the currency <strong>and</strong> credit system or in the trade<br />
organization or the infrastructure, are accompanied by other effects.<br />
The alleged decapitalization of Latin America by foreign private investments<br />
can by no means be “documented” in the manner frequently<br />
employed within the literature on dependencia, namely by contrasting<br />
the total foreign capital which has poured into Latin America with the<br />
capital retransferred in the same time period. Indeed, in recent times the<br />
outflow has frequently been considerably greater than the capital inflow.<br />
But this is far from being proof that the input of foreign private investments<br />
is vastly exceeded by the outflow of profits transferred abroad.<br />
Let us simply recall, first of all, that the different capital flows must be<br />
classified according to various time phases <strong>and</strong> economic sequences. Capital<br />
which, e. g., was retransferred abroad betwen 1960 <strong>and</strong> 1970, had in<br />
all probability been formed on the basis of investments which were made<br />
before 1960. Thus it is misleading to contrast the total capital flows within<br />
a specific period —in the present example, between 1960 <strong>and</strong> 1970 —<br />
with each other, for the inflowing capital in this period will for the most<br />
part generate capital only after 1970. Further, it must be considered that,<br />
in the context of a successful foreign enterprise, the time will come in all<br />
probability in which the return flow of capital will exceed the subsequent<br />
investments, Moreover, a distinction made between foreign enterprises<br />
active in raw materials exploitation <strong>and</strong> those becoming active in<br />
the industrial sector would demonstrate that one cannot start from a<br />
general assumption of return flow surpluses. Ultimately, however, definitive<br />
conclusions would be possible only on the basis of overall calculations,<br />
for which the source material is not nearly available to an adequate<br />
degree. Without having to take up a supposition frequently expressed by<br />
economic historians, it would be very useful to consider whether, in terms<br />
of an overall accounting of the past 150 years, more foreign capital has
54<br />
Johann Hellwege<br />
not been invested in unsuccessful enterprises in Latin America than has<br />
been retransferred in the form of profits.<br />
But even if it were true that foreign investments were exceeded by<br />
retransferred profits, this alone would not show that a decapitalization of<br />
the recipient countries had taken place as a result of foreign investments.<br />
Capital growth would still be possible, for the sum of wages, salaries,<br />
taxes, etc. paid <strong>and</strong> the remittances to local suppliers could, quite apart<br />
from’ any possible multiplicator effects, very well exceed profits, which<br />
represent only a portion of the value produced.<br />
In the following, three theses on the effects of industrialization by<br />
means of import substitution will be investigated somewhat more closely,<br />
since these are particularly often <strong>and</strong> virtually unanimously advocated<br />
by the dependencia school. The following conclusions are based especially<br />
on recent research carried out by H. Sauter14.<br />
1st Thesis<br />
Industrialization by means of import substitution has favoured capitalintensive<br />
production methods which have contributed litde toward solving<br />
the unemployment problem <strong>and</strong> which primarily produce consumer<br />
goods in dem<strong>and</strong> by the upper <strong>and</strong> middle classes.<br />
A comparison of population growth rates with the number employed in<br />
industry seems to confirm this claim. Economic policy measures taken<br />
with the aim of import substitution have also promoted the implementation<br />
of capital-intensive production processes. The logic of forced import<br />
substitution resulted in the over-estimation of domestic currencies <strong>and</strong><br />
prohibitive customs legislation in favour of consumer goods produced in<br />
the country; this was coupled with concessions for the importation <strong>and</strong><br />
writing off of capital goods, which were adapted to the situation of the<br />
labour market in the industrialized countries <strong>and</strong> were correspondingly<br />
capital-intensive. Social policy legislation forced wages <strong>and</strong> wage-related<br />
costs upward <strong>and</strong> constituted a further impetus toward capital-intensive<br />
modes of production. In most Latin American countries the growth rate<br />
of industrial production exceeded that of the other sectors of the economy,<br />
sometimes considerably, <strong>and</strong> hence was clearly above that of the gross<br />
domestic product. Since the application of labour-intensive production<br />
techniques is, as a rule, accompanied by low growth rates of industrial<br />
production <strong>and</strong> hence usually involves lower growth rates of industrial<br />
employment as well, it is very improbable that in the long term higher<br />
employment could have been achieved by promoting labour-intensive<br />
production processes. Econometric simulations, which are only available
Underdevelopment, Dcpcndcncia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory<br />
55<br />
for Brazil15, could tend to support the skeptical view that the development<br />
of specialized, or the application of already known, labour-intensive<br />
technologies could better come to grips with the employment problem in<br />
the Third World. Quite apart from which strategy of industrialization is<br />
chosen, the employment effects of industry alone would hardly be sufficient<br />
to do away with unemployment in Latin America, given the present<br />
growth rates of the population. It becomes all the more difficult to<br />
condemn the strategy of import substitution on the basis of its alleged<br />
adverse effects on employment when one observes an increase in the numbers<br />
of those employed in the service industries. These service industries are<br />
largely dependent upon industry, particularly in the cities, <strong>and</strong> they are<br />
growing at a rate exceeding that of the overall population.<br />
Import substitution began with, <strong>and</strong> essentially rests upon the manufacture<br />
of mass consumer articles. The import coefficient could clearly be<br />
decreased in many Latin American countries. At most for small countries,<br />
however, the claim can be sustained that import substitution, with its<br />
domestic production of consumer goods, has already reached the limits of<br />
its possibilities of industrialization. In countries like Argentina <strong>and</strong> Brazil,<br />
completely utilized capacities in the production of consumer goods,<br />
which signify social waste, have admittedly become evident in some<br />
measure. But the causes of this were less low dem<strong>and</strong> or excessive prices<br />
than an excessive substitution of the import of capital goods, which was intended<br />
to do away with the existing consumer goods industries’ dependency<br />
upon imported raw materials <strong>and</strong> semi-manufactured products. The resultant<br />
dearth of foreign currencies was not sufficient to provide the existing<br />
production plants with raw materials <strong>and</strong> semi-manufactured products16.<br />
With a view to Brazil <strong>and</strong> Argentina, one can rather speak of an extensive<br />
import substitution which has already extended into spheres where<br />
production costs in the long term cannot be expected to fall below those<br />
of foreign countries. Other countries’ relatively high share of imports in<br />
the spheres of semi-manufactured products <strong>and</strong> capital goods point to the<br />
fact that the small domestic market does not permit a less costly production<br />
in all spheres of production.<br />
The dependencia school’s objection that import substitution only gives<br />
rise to “industrial enclaves” cannot be sustained in the face of the interlinking<br />
effect which has been demonstrated to exist in Argentina, Brazil,<br />
Mexico, Peru <strong>and</strong> Venezuela. Cardoso <strong>and</strong> Faletto expressly emphasize<br />
that the economic structure of Latin American countries has been considerably<br />
altered by import substitution, <strong>and</strong> that the economy of the<br />
1950’s <strong>and</strong> 1960’s is thus precisely the opposite of an enclave economy of<br />
the customary type<strong>17</strong>.
56<br />
Johann Hellwege<br />
2nd Thesis<br />
Import substitution has led to the establishment of branches of foreign<br />
enterprises, which have made no contribution to economic growth <strong>and</strong><br />
have negatively influenced income growth through exploitation.<br />
Foreign branch firms’ growing share of Latin American industry’s production<br />
is certainly a justified cause for concern <strong>and</strong> represents a social<br />
policy problem for the governments who are instrumentally utilizing<br />
nationalism. To speak of “exploitation” because foreign industrial enterprises<br />
pay wages which are lower in comparison with industrialized<br />
countries, but which still are usually well above the minimum wage <strong>and</strong><br />
the local wage level, is to misunderst<strong>and</strong> the economic realities of a high<br />
labour supply <strong>and</strong> comparatively lower productivity18. Although it has<br />
been demonstrated that the profit rates of foreign investments frequendy<br />
exceed by far what they are claimed to be, because within the enterprises<br />
the most varied profit-concealing techniques are widespread, still the<br />
question remains whether Latin America therefore is the area which<br />
promises the highest profits to foreign investments. Considered on the<br />
basis of the size of investments made <strong>and</strong> demonstrated profit rates, the<br />
enterprises might well consider foreign investments in the industrialized<br />
countries to be more interesting. Simply pointing to the high profit rates<br />
<strong>and</strong> the high share of transferred profits, even if the profits were returned<br />
100% to the mother country, does not prove that the foreign direct<br />
investments do not contribute to domestic income growth, for other parts<br />
of the value produced do remain in the country. Based on the attempts at<br />
quantitative estimation of the income effects in the country which have<br />
so far been made, critics can no longer rightly reproach foreign private<br />
investments for not contributing to the growth of national income18.<br />
In terms of the concern’s internal affairs, a foreign subsidiary in Latin<br />
America is frequently only of secondary importance. This fact, however,<br />
does not prevent the same enterprise in Latin America from obtaining a<br />
power position which becomes a socio-economic <strong>and</strong> political problem for<br />
the host country. Just as one can reproach the foreign concerns with not,<br />
or not adequately taking account of these corollary effects of their actions,<br />
so too one can remind the political leaders of Latin America, <strong>and</strong> especi<br />
ly Latin American social scientists, that it can be dangerous to equate a<br />
foreign subsidiary’s position in the context of the indigenous economy<br />
with its significance within the overall context of the concern. In the pas<br />
<strong>and</strong> in the present, there is no shortage of examples of how the econotm<br />
power of foreign enterprises has been used to obtain massive influence 0<br />
to intervene in domestic <strong>and</strong> foreign politics, public opinion, legis anon,
Underdevelopment, Dcpcndcncia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 57<br />
etc. However, just as, e.g., the 19th century provides a multitude of<br />
instances of Latin American governments not acting, or not having to act<br />
passively <strong>and</strong> as the executors of foreign capital interests, so too the most<br />
recent past shows that an increasingly sensitive Latin American public<br />
has contributed toward a change in the relationship between Latin American<br />
governments <strong>and</strong> foreign investors20. To an increasing extent, investors<br />
from western European countries or Japan are competing against<br />
American enterprises <strong>and</strong> are increasing Latin American governments’<br />
scope for negotiations. This development would be difficult to comprehend<br />
using a structural-mechanistic dependency schema.<br />
The effects of foreign enterprises ultimately could only be completely<br />
comprehended if one were able to compare the present situation of Latin<br />
America with that which would have arisen, had foreign investments<br />
never been made. Concerning the income effect, one might well come to<br />
the conclusion that the national income of Latin American countries <strong>and</strong><br />
the growth rates of the last decades could hardly have been reached without<br />
the investments of foreign enterprises. It is surely a speculative question<br />
to ask what industrialization, to which at present no alternative is<br />
visible, would have looked like or whether it would have been possible at<br />
all without foreign capital investments. Condemning foreign investment<br />
activities within the framework of industrialization as being exploitive,<br />
while at the same time complaining when foreign capital withdraws or is<br />
not invested, amounts however to a schizophrenic way of thinking. Although<br />
it can be observed that foreign capital is happy to see the rule of<br />
“law <strong>and</strong> order” in the investment area <strong>and</strong> consequendy has been all too<br />
ready to give preference to Latin American dictators over “resdess”<br />
democracies21, there are nevertheless solid reasons for formulating the<br />
hypothesis that, without foreign direct investments, in every case we<br />
could expect a great, <strong>and</strong> at times perhaps even greater degree of repression<br />
than that which actually exists, along with the attendant high social<br />
costs, if capital had to be obtained, formed <strong>and</strong> diverted into industrialization<br />
exclusively within the country itself.<br />
3rd Thesis<br />
Industrialization by means of import substitution has not lowered<br />
reliance on imports, but transformed <strong>and</strong> increased it. Foreign debts have<br />
grown larger <strong>and</strong> dependencia has been extended.<br />
The strategy of import substitution, for which there was no realistic<br />
alternative, sought to attack balance of payments problems at their roots<br />
<strong>and</strong> to free exports <strong>and</strong> export earnings from their dependency upon
58 Johann Hellwege<br />
traditional exports of primary goods, such as agricultural products <strong>and</strong><br />
raw materials which are subject to extreme fluctuations. The establishment<br />
of a domestic consumer goods industry, however, also led anew to<br />
dependency upon imports. Of course these imports were of a different<br />
kind, namely capital goods, raw materials, semi-manufactured products,<br />
etc. Where formerly one could, without great relative repercussions, restrict<br />
the import of consumer goods during periods of balance of payments<br />
difficulties, now by contrast a restriction on the new imports also meant<br />
jeopardizing the level of production, income <strong>and</strong> employment. The dependencia<br />
school rightly points out that import requirements, in consequence<br />
of the policy of substitution, have grown more inflexible. It must be<br />
started, however, that this is by no means proof that this results from<br />
dependencia. Furthermore, actual foreign currency savings through import<br />
substitution can only be achieved if the new import needs, which arise<br />
with domestic industrialization, at the same time are sufficiently matched<br />
with already successfully substituted imports as a consequence of investments<br />
already made earlier. The high degree of diversification of the<br />
larger national Latin American economies, which has been achieved with<br />
unusual rapidity <strong>and</strong> as a rule without specialization according to the<br />
principle of comparative advantage, seems to indicate that phase extensions,<br />
for considerations of currency needs, are hardly aimed at.<br />
To the extent that empirical investigations have been carried out on<br />
the connection between import substitution <strong>and</strong> currency requirements,<br />
these reach different conclusions about the savings effect22. On the other<br />
h<strong>and</strong>, however, it may be supposed that import requirements would be<br />
even greater today if one assumes that changes in dem<strong>and</strong>, which appeared<br />
through import substitution, <strong>and</strong> the same income growth, would have<br />
taken place without this process. Yet there can be no question that Latin<br />
American import substitution policy has involved hindrances of exports<br />
which have contributed considerably to the development of bottlenecks in<br />
their balance of payments. Thus internal price relationships have frequently<br />
been changed in favour of the new industries <strong>and</strong> at the expense<br />
of the traditional production of primary goods. The over-evaluation of<br />
domestic currency signified a further difficulty for raw materials <strong>and</strong><br />
agricultural products which made up the major portion of exports. The<br />
industries originating in the course of the import substitution process were,<br />
for various reasons, not in a position to export sufficient industrial goods<br />
to compensate for the falling returns on the export of raw materials <strong>and</strong><br />
agricultural products. On a comparative international scale, domestic<br />
industries’ cost level was not always raised to unusual levels by low<br />
efficiency; but frequently it was the officials who hampered competition
Underdevelopment, Dependencia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 59<br />
in the international market through a system of multiple exchange<br />
rates <strong>and</strong> export expenditures which discriminated against export activities23.<br />
Only in very recent times have countries such as Brazil <strong>and</strong> Mexico<br />
more firmly adjusted their industrialization strategy to the promotion of<br />
industrial exports, since they have recognized the limited possibilities of<br />
currency saving through import substitution.<br />
Foreign enterprises, with their prohibitions <strong>and</strong> taxes on exports, have<br />
frequently impeded industrial exports <strong>and</strong> hence have made a smaller<br />
contribution to the balance of payments than they otherwise might have<br />
done. If foreign enterprises, despite their principal orientation toward the<br />
Latin American domestic market, have nevertheless assumed a leading<br />
role in Latin America’s industrial goods export, then this is primarily due<br />
to the fact that, together widi the national enterprises’ even lower degree<br />
of national export orientation, international concerns’ multi-national character<br />
involves them more in the international economy, <strong>and</strong> they can<br />
better capitalize on export opportunities. But on the whole, foreign direct<br />
investments appear to have worsened Latin American states’ foreign currency<br />
position24.<br />
With respect to the balance of payments problem, the dependencia<br />
school’s theses manifestly have a high degree of plausibility. However, the<br />
question again arises as to whether the growing foreign debts are caused<br />
by the strategy of import substitution. It is impossible to see how the<br />
high overall economic growth rates of the past decades could have been<br />
achieved without ongoing import substitution <strong>and</strong> with a low credit<br />
requirement. The problem of foreign debt can presumably be solved only<br />
if every effort is made to increase industrial exports while increasingly<br />
capitalizing on all export opportunities in the traditional export sectors.<br />
It is very difficult to imagine another way in which the existing overcapacities<br />
in many Latin American countries, which are produced by<br />
exaggerated import substitution <strong>and</strong> excessive production <strong>and</strong> which signify<br />
an enormous social waste, can be purposefully utilized, since an<br />
increase in domestic dem<strong>and</strong> would have to lead to imports. A strategy<br />
of industrial exports presupposes that the products, because of their<br />
quality <strong>and</strong> price, will find buyers on the international market, i. e., that<br />
they will take foreign interests into account. In this connection, the role<br />
of assistance provided by multinational concerns would have to be examined<br />
without bias <strong>and</strong> the export potential of foreign enterprises would<br />
have to be considered25. A strategy of this kind would be in contradiction<br />
to the dem<strong>and</strong>s of the dependencia school, but at present may well be the<br />
only realistic alternative.<br />
The discussion surrounding dependencia has made a world-wide public<br />
I
60<br />
Johann Hellwege<br />
aware of the problems of industrialization in Latin America. This is the<br />
great service of the dependencia school. Its frequently one-sided emphasis<br />
upon external impediments to development has created an awarenessof<br />
the problems of unequal, unjust relationships with foreign busmess. The<br />
definition of the developmental process as modernization after the western<br />
model has been righdy called into question. However, the tendency<br />
to attempt to explain all faulty developments by “dependencia has<br />
promoted an uncritical method of analysis. The explanatory schemata, in<br />
the majority of individual cases, have not been adequate. Here, we certainly<br />
do not wish to suggest that direct foreign investments in Latin<br />
America are always <strong>and</strong> inevitably useful. It is an extremely difficult tas<br />
to determine the effect of foreign investments, <strong>and</strong> one can hardly do it<br />
justice using an undifferentiated approach. Here the dependencia school<br />
is challenged to re-examine its theories against empirical detailed studies<br />
<strong>and</strong>, where necessary, to modify them.<br />
In this context, let us specifically point out the work by Kaufmann,<br />
Chernotsky <strong>and</strong> Geller28. For the first time, seventeen Latin American<br />
countries are compared, on the basis of known statistical materials, according<br />
to hypotheses deduced from dependencia theories. Though here<br />
we cannot discuss the rightness or wrongness of the statistical materials<br />
or of individual hypotheses, let us point out that this “provisional test”<br />
now transfers the burden of proving their hypotheses to the dependencistas<br />
themselves. Precisely in the economic sphere, which is central to the<br />
dependencia theories, the correlations are least convincing in this first<br />
larger attempt at an empirical-statistical study.<br />
In order to conclude the dependencia complex, we shall examine the<br />
problem of alternatives, of alternative development policy strategies, in<br />
so far as they are ascertainable in the various camps of the dependencia<br />
school.<br />
Where dependencia theories conceptualize dependencia - non-dependencia<br />
as dichotomous variables, rather than as a continuum, they imply<br />
that “non-dependencia” is potentially attainable. It is noteworthy, however,<br />
that all variations of this theory avoid, with what amounts to trepidation,<br />
providing a definition of what “non-dependenda” would be<br />
<strong>and</strong> what a non-dependent economy would look like. To reject dependencia<br />
- non-dependenda as a continuum is at the same time to reject<br />
explicitly, or at least to encumber greatly, alternatives aimed at eliminating<br />
dependencia.<br />
To be sure, some dependencia theorists who espouse Marxism (e. g.,<br />
Dos Santos, Bodenheimer, Cdrdova or Michelena), in accordance with<br />
the logic of the basic dependencia theorem, dem<strong>and</strong> a radical withdrawal
Underdevelopment, Dcpendencia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 61<br />
from involvement in the capitalist world market. However, they do not<br />
even discuss - but do implicidy assume to answer - whether following<br />
the desired revolution one s association with the socialist states or the<br />
establishment of socialism within the Latin American nation-state framework<br />
in themselves means the abolition of dependencia. It may be mentioned<br />
in passing that socialist states have always tacitly profited from<br />
existing dependencia relations; <strong>and</strong>, more recently, they have increasingly<br />
come into competition against the Third World countries by luring capitalist<br />
enterprises into their own countries with worthwhile investment opportunities<br />
<strong>and</strong> by attempting to obtain, in the most diverse ways, high<br />
credits from the governments of western industrialized states. Another<br />
marginal notation is the presumption that Marx, for very good reasons,<br />
may be regarded as a precursor of modernization theories27.<br />
The key question about which development policy measures to take<br />
following a successful socialist revolution is in general passed over by the<br />
Marxist dependencistas. The continuation of industrialization, to which<br />
at present no alternative is visible, would in any case have to exact exceptional<br />
sacrifices from the Latin American population. To characterize<br />
economic growth as having great regional disparities or to denounce the<br />
working <strong>and</strong> entrepreneurial as having been the sole beneficiaries of<br />
industrialization policies in Latin America (when in fact they have only<br />
been one of the most important beneficiaries) is not to provide the historically<br />
unprovable evidence that industrialization can ever be possible<br />
in a way which offers simultaneous <strong>and</strong> equal advantages <strong>and</strong> sacrifices<br />
to all citizens <strong>and</strong> all regions. Let us assume the rightness of the apparently<br />
extremely naive notion that, if an unselfish stream of capital <strong>and</strong><br />
technological aid were to flow from the socialist state, the revolution<br />
would have “arrived”. Even then we would have to ask whether new<br />
dependency relations would not have to develop. Certain basic laws of<br />
the market are not abolished, even in intercourse with fraternal socialist<br />
states, because certain structural compulsions are still at work. With the<br />
“international socialist division of labour” the principle of comparative<br />
advantage has been recognized as being also applicable to the socialist<br />
economic bloc as, e. g., Cuba discovered in 1962. Even Marxist observers<br />
(e. g., Huberman <strong>and</strong> Sweezy) have confirmed that the Cuban development<br />
has suffered under a forced specialization in raw sugar production<br />
within the framework of socialist division of labour-8.<br />
If we assume the universality of the principle of comparative advantage<br />
<strong>and</strong> if at the same time we determine that until now the price for<br />
violating this principle, which Latin American industrialization has pai ,<br />
has usually been an extremely great impediment on intra-Latin American
62<br />
Johann Hellwege<br />
foreign trade <strong>and</strong> the possibility of equal economic intercourse with the<br />
industrialized states, then it seems admissible to conclude that die underdeveloped<br />
countries must see the necessity of concentrating their endeavours<br />
in the export sectors in which they can produce most price-efficiently.<br />
Every specialization of the export economies simultaneously takes<br />
account of the needs of other countries, <strong>and</strong> the result is what, e. g., Dos<br />
Santos has described as dependencia. His observation that private <strong>and</strong><br />
national interests must be eliminated so that a world economic integration<br />
without relations of dependency could be possible, amounts to a<br />
proposal to “dissolve” nations’ dependency relations by abolishing the<br />
nations. Quite apart from the utopian character of such a proposal, such<br />
an approach could hardly be made palatable to Latin American governments<br />
<strong>and</strong> Latin Americans, for the strength of nationalism is unabated-9.<br />
The bourgeois-nationalist group within the dependencia school (e. g.,<br />
Cardoso, Sunkel, Jaguaribe) starts from a continuum of dependencianon-dependencia<br />
<strong>and</strong> thus is increasingly able to discuss degrees of dependencia<br />
<strong>and</strong> differences in the character of dependencia (e. g., trade dependency,<br />
capital dependency). Its greater relation to reality results from its<br />
rejection of rigorous, schematic mental constructs. One is however struck<br />
by the fact that, as this grouping reflects upon the development of alternative<br />
strategies for the elimination of dependencia, it still resurrects<br />
modernization theorems, albeit in modified form. With its discussion of<br />
the framework for organizational policy <strong>and</strong> its emphasis on the role of<br />
the state’s power, with its reference to sustaining groups of development<br />
policy (say in the form of a “progressive” military), with the broad area<br />
which it accords to Latin American integration policy in the discussion of<br />
alternatives of industrialization, <strong>and</strong> not least of all, with its concession<br />
of participation opportunities to foreign enterprises, the originally radical<br />
verdicts of the dependencia discussion are increasingly falling into the<br />
realm of the forgotten. By contrast, one finds relatively frequent interconnections<br />
with modernization theory as set down, for example, by<br />
Bendix, Gerschenkron or Eisenstadt30.<br />
The dependencia discussion has not provided any economic policy<br />
alternatives to the import of “western” capitalism or “western” industrialization<br />
in those regions where the preconditions for the development<br />
of an autonomous capitalism or autonomous industrialization were not or<br />
are not extant. Perhaps this explains why the dependencia theories enunciated<br />
from a Marxist viewpoint are being attacked with increasing<br />
vehemence. The significance of the dependencia discussion, therefore,<br />
should not be sought primarily in the scientific sphere, but apparently<br />
has more to do with the fact that it enabled an indigenous self-awareness,
Underdevelopment, Dependenda, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory<br />
63<br />
repeatedly challenged by the rise <strong>and</strong> the strength of its northern Anglo-<br />
Amencan neighbour, to give vent to its feelings. Dependenda seems to<br />
explam the deeply felt inferiority toward the U.S.A. <strong>and</strong> those West<br />
European states to which Latin Americans - as incidentally do North<br />
Americans - feel culturally <strong>and</strong> intellectually bound; <strong>and</strong> dependenda<br />
theory’s reference to the complicity of international capitalism makes this<br />
inferiority appear externally caused. It is also surely no coincidence that<br />
the monocausal explanation of dependenda as a consequence of the<br />
development of world capitalism, together with geographic or climatic<br />
factors, suppresses those explanations of developmental divergence between<br />
North <strong>and</strong> South America or Western Europe <strong>and</strong> South America<br />
which would have to start from a recognition of the fact that, in the<br />
majority of Latin American countries, there is no racial homogeineity<br />
<strong>and</strong> that class differences have been stabilized via the conservation of<br />
racial barriers. Just as it cannot be ignored that the dependencia discussion<br />
so far has released forces which could contribute to the elimination<br />
of dependency <strong>and</strong> the promotion of independent development, so for<br />
the time being it is an open question whether, now that the guilty party<br />
has been established, namely international capitalism, Latin Americans<br />
will proceed to the next phase — that of searching for deficiencies in<br />
one’s own back yard.<br />
It is high time to realize, for example, that the scholarly discussion<br />
surrounding developmental problems during the past decade was by no<br />
means identical with the dependencia debate. In a truly remarkable learning<br />
process —which the dependencia school, apart from a few laudable<br />
exceptions, quite overlooked — social scientists engaged in the study of<br />
modernization have drawn conclusions from bitter experience. Three<br />
developments have forced would-be explanatory theories to become more<br />
modest in scope: the failure of both the western <strong>and</strong> Soviet-socialist<br />
developmental models in the Third World, the shortcoming of ambitious<br />
plans for development, <strong>and</strong> the loss of confidence in general theories<br />
claiming universal validity <strong>and</strong> purporting to be realizable. And now,<br />
with the rediscovery that there are many historical factors, these theories<br />
have become more related to reality. Modernization theory, using the<br />
comparative method, has become increasingly aware that present-day<br />
developmental problems, as problems of catching up, cannot simply be<br />
compared to the starting situations of western industrial societies development.<br />
The non-linear theoretical construct: “traditional versus modern<br />
has been ab<strong>and</strong>oned. The modernization process has been recognized as<br />
an ongoing symbiosis of the most varied “traditional <strong>and</strong> modern<br />
elements, whereby the concepts “modern” <strong>and</strong> “traditional each desig-
64<br />
Johann Hellwege<br />
!sion between elements of the social process which « is t <strong>and</strong><br />
defined in detail, <strong>and</strong> the definable requirements of the devel-<br />
<strong>State</strong>s. IV IU U C U llL d U U U tjbuvMww —---------- * e . f . J . 31<br />
social science aware of the limitations <strong>and</strong> relativity of its findings .<br />
Some of the reasons why this has happened are: observation of the grea<br />
variety of traditional starting situations, diversity of possible reference<br />
societies for today’s “stragglers”, different historical periods which were<br />
<strong>and</strong> are available for modernization, <strong>and</strong> not least of all the faltering<br />
course <strong>and</strong> frequent breakdowns of the process of modernization.<br />
The normative statements of modernization theories - like all theories<br />
forced to explain the overall process of social change - are being more<br />
<strong>and</strong> more explicitly formulated <strong>and</strong> supported, so that the opponents of<br />
modernization theories are compelled to lay bare their own criteria o<br />
comparison <strong>and</strong> to show how the costs <strong>and</strong> opportunities, sacrifices <strong>and</strong><br />
progress in pursuit of their own normative refuge (which are directed<br />
against modernization theories) are or can be greater or lesser. It is noteworthy<br />
that Europe <strong>and</strong> North America have again found their way mto<br />
the centre of modernization studies, whereas the Third World no longer<br />
represents the central focus of research or enjoys the predominance it did<br />
in the early years of modernization theories. The arrogant-instructing<br />
intentions of the first years have faded away as it became more evident<br />
that, although modernization can be conceived as a systematic process<br />
during which general problems are posed, modernization as a historical<br />
process has produced quite different solutions. The ideological ballast of<br />
the first years has been largely thrown overboard.<br />
Against this background, we may briefly summarize a few advantages<br />
of historical-comparative modernization studies to Latin American social<br />
sciences. Inasmuch as historical modernization theory helps to illuminate<br />
the preconditions <strong>and</strong> consequences of the rise of modern industrial soae-
Underdevelopment, Dcpendencia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory 65<br />
ties, it can also more precisely comprehend <strong>and</strong> analyse the effects in the<br />
Occident, as well as those in the remainder of the “Europeanized” world.<br />
However justified one’s scepticism may be about the value of possibility<br />
of imitating the capitalist West or the socialist Occident32, every socalled<br />
“individual road” in the Third World ultimately involves only a<br />
minor correction, since it will not have its own historical experience; <strong>and</strong><br />
development is not conceivable without regulating Leitbilder which, however,<br />
can only be designed if they take account of basic phenomonological<br />
traits in the image of historical modernity. Without having to duplicate<br />
the experiences of <strong>and</strong> traverse the same road as the West - particularly<br />
since here too, there were no st<strong>and</strong>ard sequences - every conception of<br />
development will have to start from the fact that a few basic tendencies<br />
are bound up with the road to modernity. Some of these are: attainment<br />
of <strong>and</strong> striving toward social <strong>and</strong> political equality, the extension of<br />
planning capacities, the differentiation of the division of labour <strong>and</strong> the<br />
universalization of the ends-means calculus. Within this horizon of experience,<br />
which modernization studies have thematized, the problems of<br />
the “stragglers” in the modernization process will have to be analysed,<br />
once the task has been set of connecting historically outmoded structures<br />
<strong>and</strong> their typical tensions with the effects of the ideas <strong>and</strong> techniques<br />
coming from the outside. The development of a before-<strong>and</strong>-after construct<br />
or model - which is peculiar to modernization theories - is an unavoidable<br />
task of every developmental analysis <strong>and</strong> planning. The normativepractical<br />
dimensions inherent in a theory of modernization, which of<br />
course by no means represent a consistent theoretical system, have become<br />
evident in a multiplicity of concepts, categories <strong>and</strong> models, whose utility<br />
<strong>and</strong> applicability in social scientific analysis has already been demonstrated.<br />
If an application of modernization-theory model notions, which<br />
amount to the production of catalogues of deficits, to problems of the<br />
developing countries still all too frequently end in disappointments in<br />
the practice of development policy, then this by no means signifies that<br />
the conceptual-theoretical results of the western discussion on modernization<br />
are at best valuable as developmental policy contrasts, which in any<br />
case ought not to be underestimated. Rather, this shows that modernization<br />
theories today must warn against viewing the sum of partial modernizations,<br />
which takes place as development policy is realized in everyday<br />
practice, as development itself. Development ultimately can only be the<br />
result of an ongoing, interactive transformation of an overall social system,<br />
for which it would be difficult ever to produce recipe-like directions.<br />
Despite all its inadequacies, modernization theory, with the sum of its<br />
reflections, concepts, theorems <strong>and</strong> knowledge, at present offers the prob-<br />
5 <strong>Law</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>State</strong>
66 Johann Hellwege<br />
ably most differentiated instrument of analysis to comprehend social<br />
change as a whole. The modernization discussion, which began with such<br />
facile optimism, is currently rather more filled with scepticism about the<br />
possibility of being able to explain <strong>and</strong> comprehensively to plan social<br />
change in its entirety, <strong>and</strong> to include all its causes. If it is the task of the<br />
Latin American social sciences to investigate the possibilities of development<br />
under the historical conditions <strong>and</strong> within the concrete constellations<br />
of Latin American countries, then without bias they should attack,<br />
analyse <strong>and</strong> improve the instruments of analysis which have been produced<br />
in the course of the modem theoretical discussion of recent years.<br />
Concrete policies which aim at reducing dependencia are only possible in<br />
development policy practice if strategies grounded in <strong>and</strong> deduced from<br />
modernization theory are developed. If one were to resort to the socialist-<br />
Marxist variation of development policy, one would have to work just as<br />
hard for the “treasure of the western experience” as one might find it<br />
difficult to prove that socialist development theory, in so far as it leads<br />
back to Marx, does not st<strong>and</strong> in the traditional context of modernization<br />
theories33.<br />
The possibilities of a policy directed toward reducing dependencia have<br />
grown as a result of the world political development in the postwar<br />
period, particularly in the most recent past. The radical rejection of the<br />
concept of modernization can hardly be politically justified any longer.<br />
The strategy of the O.P.E.C. countries has shown how income from raw<br />
materials exports increases, <strong>and</strong> facilitates a more just world economic<br />
balance without involving sudden expropriations which previously have<br />
always been “shots that went off in the wrong direction”. The Andes Pact<br />
is an example of how foreign direct investments can be channelled into<br />
forms <strong>and</strong> directions which one may assume to be more conducive to<br />
national developmental autonomy.<br />
Of course one must warn against undue optimism bound up with the<br />
control of the much maligned multinational concerns34. With the increasing<br />
strength of the socialist economic bloc, the Latin American countries1<br />
scope for negotiation has become greater. An outward looking strategy in<br />
trade <strong>and</strong> industrialization is opening up new opportunities precisely in<br />
the present period in which insight into the necessity of world economic<br />
co-operation is growing. Political reason dem<strong>and</strong>s that we pay heed to<br />
the experiences of the western model, without at the same time making it<br />
into a norm for future development.
Underdevelopment, Dependenda, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory<br />
67<br />
NOTES<br />
1 The literature of the dependenda school cannot be listed here. However,<br />
it must be conceded that a brief summary cannot do full justice to the complexity<br />
of the dependencia theses. Two useful, critical surveys do exist: Sotelo,<br />
Ignacio: Subdesarrollo y dependencia. Notas para una evaluacidn de<br />
la categoria de la dependencia en el analisis del subdesarrollo. In: Sistema,<br />
No. 10; July 1974; pp. 4 1-49; <strong>and</strong> O’Brien, Philip J. O.: A critique of Latin<br />
American theories of dependency. In: Ivar Oxaal, T ony Barrett <strong>and</strong><br />
David Booth (eds.): Beyond the Sociology of Development. Economy <strong>and</strong><br />
Society in Latin America <strong>and</strong> Africa. London: 1975: pp. 7-27.<br />
1 Cf. Stansfield, D avid E.: Perspectives on Dependency. In: Cedla Incidentele<br />
Publicaties, No. 2; Amsterdam, June 1974; pp. 3-10; here p. 9.<br />
s See, e. g., Gerschenkron, A.: Economic Backwardness in Historical<br />
Perspective. Cambridge, Mass.: 1972; passim-, <strong>and</strong> on this see Barsby, L.:<br />
Economic Backwardness <strong>and</strong> the Characteristics of Development. In: Journal<br />
of Economic History, Vol. 29; 1969; pp. 449-64.<br />
4 Cf. Dos Santos, T heotonio: Über die Struktur der Abhängigkeit (On<br />
the Structure of Dependency). In: D ieter Senghaas (ed.): Imperialismus<br />
und strukturelle Gewalt. Analysen über abhängige Reproduktion. Frankfurt/<br />
Main: 1972; pp. 243-57<br />
6 Cf. Puhle, Hans-Jürgen: Tradition, Stability <strong>and</strong> Development. Ioward<br />
a Critique of Dependency Theories. (Unpublished manuscript, in German);<br />
<strong>and</strong> O’Brien: Loc. cit.,p. 11 etseq. . . . , , . t. - i„<br />
8 A discussion between historians <strong>and</strong> sociologists, conducted in Bielefeld<br />
in June 1975 under the topic “Latin America, Histormai Reality <strong>and</strong><br />
Dependencia Theories” did deal with this problem complex, u<br />
to bring it any closer to a solution. . . . on ><br />
7 See, e. g., Kossock, Manfred: Feudalismo y .c a p u “ * ? hlf 973.<br />
colonial de America Latina. In: Comunidad, VoL 8, > caDitalismo en<br />
PP. 643-58; <strong>and</strong> Van Bath, B. H. Schucher: Feudahsmo y capitaligno en<br />
America Latina. In: Boletin de Estudios Latinoamencanos y<br />
Problem des Spätmarxismus (The Future of the P 574_ 616_<br />
Problem of Late Marxism). In: Futurum, No. , >P. ' j Weberiens:<br />
• Frank, Andre Gunder: Smith et Marx v s . Hegel e tie s ^<br />
Origines du developpement et 4]1/ ^ ^ ^ l ^ J a n u a r y - J u n e 1975; pp.<br />
Monde. In: L’Homme et la socidtd, No. 35 36, ja y<br />
149-185. _ . , rnnnuista. Zur amerikani-<br />
See also Hellwege, J ohann D.: Frontier un ürcjigen historischen<br />
sehen Entwicklungsdivergenz am “ t Developments in America<br />
Vergleichs (Frontier <strong>and</strong> Conquista. On Div g Comparison). In: Iberoas<br />
Revealed by the Example of a Dubious Historical Gomp<br />
Amerikanisches Archiv, New Series No. 3 ;. * r Dependency: An histo-<br />
. 10 See, e. g., Blakemore, Harold: ^ “J os Latinoamericanos y del<br />
nan’s view <strong>and</strong> case study. In: Boletin de<br />
Caribe, No. 18; June 1975; pp. 74-87.
68<br />
Johann Hellwege<br />
11 Cf Ray, David. The Dependency Model of Latin American Underdevelopment:<br />
Three Basic Fallacies. In: Journal of Inter-American Studies <strong>and</strong><br />
W «r c f s S c E R H W •9U.3i PFortign Investment in Underdeveloped Areas.<br />
The Distribution of Gains BetweenTnvesting <strong>and</strong> Borrowing Countries In:<br />
Im e riä n Economic Review, Vol. 40; 1950; Supplement, pp. 473-85; here<br />
p. 475.<br />
1S Cf. Blakemore; Loc. a t., p. 76. . t- i_• „<br />
u Sautter, H.: Unterentwicklung und Abhängigkeit als Ergebnisse<br />
außenwirtschaftlicher Verflechtung. Zum ökonomischen Aussagewert der<br />
“dependencia”-Theorie (Underdevelopment <strong>and</strong> Dependency as a Result<br />
of Involvement in Foreign Economies. Concernmg the Economic Value ofAe<br />
“Dependencia” Theory). (Ibero-Amenka Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung-<br />
Universität Göttingen, Diskussionsbeitrage, No. 8). Gottingen; 1975. This<br />
work appeared in 1976 as part of an anthology, edited by H.-J;Puhle^on<br />
“Latin America - Historical Reality <strong>and</strong> Dependencia Theories (in Ger-<br />
15 Cf M orley, Samuel A. <strong>and</strong> J effrey G. Williamson: Dem<strong>and</strong>, Distribution<br />
<strong>and</strong> Employment: The Case of Brazil. In: Economic Development<br />
<strong>and</strong> Cultural Change, Vol. 23, No. 1; October 1974; pp. 33-60.<br />
10 Schydlowski, Daniel: Latin American Trade Policies in the 1970 s:<br />
A Prospective Appraisal. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 86;<br />
1972; pp. 263-89; here p. 271 f. On Argentina see especially Kenworthy,<br />
Eldon: Argentina: The Politics of Late Industrialization. In: Foreign Affairs,<br />
Vol. 45; 1966-67; pp. 463-476.<br />
<strong>17</strong> Cardoso, Fern<strong>and</strong>o Henrique <strong>and</strong> Faletto, Enzo: Dependencia y<br />
desarrollo en America Latina. Ensayo de interpretaciön sociohSgica. Mexico:<br />
2nd edition 1970; p. 146.<br />
18 On this see L<strong>and</strong>es, David S.: Some Thoughts on the Nature of Economic<br />
Imperialism. In: Journal of Economic History, Vol. 21; 1961; pp.<br />
496-512.<br />
10 Sautter; Loc. cit., p. 19 et seq.<br />
20 Peter F. Drucker calls our attention to the hazards of setting up<br />
newly-created myths, in his: Multinationals <strong>and</strong> Developing Countries:<br />
Myths <strong>and</strong> Realities. In: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 53, No. 1; October 1974; pp.<br />
121-34.<br />
21 On this, see also Hellwege, J. D.: Zwischen Demokratie und Diktatur.<br />
Eine Analyse der strukturellen Voraussetzungen in Lateinamerika (Between<br />
Democracy <strong>and</strong> Dictatorship. An Analysis of the Structural Preconditions<br />
in Latin America). In: im gespräch, No. 1/2; 1975; pp. 3-6.<br />
22 Sautter: Loc. cit., p. 22 et seq. The relevant literature is mentioned<br />
here.<br />
25 Cf. Schydlowski: Loc. cit., p. 272 et seq.<br />
24 This conclusion is reached in the model study by Bos, H. C., S<strong>and</strong>ers,<br />
M artin <strong>and</strong> Secchi, Carlo: Private Foreign Investment in Developing<br />
Countries. A Quantitative Study on the Evaluation of the Macro-Economic<br />
Effects. (International Studies in Economics <strong>and</strong> Econometrics, Vol. 7).<br />
Dordrecht <strong>and</strong> Boston: 1974.<br />
25 Cf. Drucker: Loc. cit.
Underdevelopment, Dependcncia, <strong>and</strong> Modernization Theory<br />
69<br />
:8 Kaufman, R obert, Daniel S. Geller <strong>and</strong> Harry I, Chernotsky-<br />
A Preliminary Test of the Theory of Dependency. In: Comparative Politics<br />
Vol. 7, No. 3; April 1975; pp. 303-330.<br />
» Cf. Sotelo: Loc. cit., p. 48; <strong>and</strong> R ay; L oc. cit., p. 13 ff. On “Marx as a<br />
modernization theorist” see especially: H oselitz, Bert F.: Karl Marx on<br />
Secular <strong>and</strong> Social Development: A Study in the Sociology of Nineteenth<br />
Century Social Science. In: Comparative Studies in Society <strong>and</strong> History, Vol.<br />
6, No. 2; Jan. 1964; pp. 142-63; <strong>and</strong> Aveneri, Shlomo: Marx <strong>and</strong> Modernization.<br />
In: Review of Politics, Vol. 31, No. 2; April 1969; pp. <strong>17</strong>2-188. On<br />
Marx’s evaluation of the peasants, see Duggett, M ichael: Marx on Peasants.<br />
In: Journal of Peasant Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2; Jan. 1975; pp. 159-82.<br />
M Cf. Huberman- L. <strong>and</strong> P. Sw eezy: Socialism in Cuba. New York: 1969.<br />
8 Cf. Silvert, K. H. (ed.): Expectant Peoples. Nationalism <strong>and</strong> Development.<br />
New York: 1963; chapter’s, 3 ,7 .<br />
50 This would admittedly best be reserved for a later article. On the resurrection<br />
of modernization theory, see W ehler, Hans-Ulrich: Modernisierungstheorie<br />
und Geschichte (Modernization Theory <strong>and</strong> History).<br />
(Kleine V<strong>and</strong>enhoeck Series 1407). Göttingen: 1975.<br />
51 See esp. W ehler: L oc. cit., p. 58 ff.; <strong>and</strong> J. D. Hellwege, R. Liehr<br />
<strong>and</strong> H. J. Puhle: Traditional Society <strong>and</strong> Modern Economic <strong>and</strong> Social Development.<br />
Toward an Analysis of Traditional <strong>and</strong> Development-Inhibiting<br />
Factors in Typical Socialization <strong>and</strong> Economic Processes in Latin America.<br />
(Unpublished manuscript, in German. 1973). ,<br />
s: Cf. M ols, M anfred: Zum Problem des westlichen Vorbilds ini der<br />
neueren Diskussion zur politischen Entwicklung (Concerning the Pro em<br />
of the Western Model in the Recent Discussion on Political Development).<br />
In: Verfassung und Recht in Übersee, Vol. 8; 1975; pp. 5—22.<br />
55 Cf. Note 27 <strong>and</strong> Wehler: Loc. c/i.,p. 51 et seq.<br />
51 See Drucker: L oc cit.-, <strong>and</strong> J oseph S. Nye: Multinat ona P<br />
tions in World Politics. In: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 53, No. ,<br />
pp. 153-75.
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