Manchester Report

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In contrast, only 13% of the city’s residents are older than 60, while the national average is just above 22%. Population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that Manchester’s population will increase by around 12% over the next 20 years, compared to a 10% rise in the Greater Manchester area. Greater Manchester has one of the largest student populations in Europe with over 105,000 students across four universities: Manchester University, Manchester Metropolitan University, the University of Salford, and the University of Bolton. In addition to the four universities in the city region there are a further 18 universities and higher education institutes in the North West, making for an additional population of around 515,000 students in the surrounding areas. In the academic year 2014-15, Manchester University had the second highest number of foreign students (12,215) among UK higher education establishments. Planning Manchester’s Core Strategy was adopted in July 2012 and is the key document in the Manchester Local Plan. It sets out the long-term strategic policies for Manchester’s future development and covers the period from 2012 to 2027. The Regional Centre will be the focus for economic and commercial development, retail, leisure and cultural activity, alongside high-quality city housing. The growth of Manchester Airport will act as a catalyst for the regional economy, and will also provide the impetus for a second hub of economic activity in this part of the city. Manchester also forms part of the Government’s Northern Powerhouse initiative. Linked to this scheme, the Greater Manchester Devolution Deal will give new planning powers to local government in order to encourage regeneration and development, including a new £300 million fund for housing and greater control over local transport planning. Manchester city centre is defined as the area inside the Inner Relief Route and extends to the south to encompass the Oxford Road Corridor. The City Centre also includes Chapel Street, within the administrative boundary of Salford City Council, and the two city councils continue to work together to build a strong shared strategy for city centre regeneration. The City Centre Strategic Plan sets out a long-term vision for the future of the city centre, which will see the most intensive development of housing in Manchester. Key locations for residential development have been identified as Castlefield, Piccadilly, the Southern Gateway and the Northern Quarter. Residential Market Demand Manchester had a total of 217,240 homes according to the 2011 census. Owner occupation (37.8%) is way below the national average (63.3%), and the number of households renting privately (28.4%) well above the national average (16.8%). In addition to normal household demand, the large corporate and student sectors also make the city popular with investors. The University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan University have more than 64,000 students between them, with many living in the City, equating to 12.5% of the City’s population. Residential sales in Manchester have averaged just over 6,800 per annum over the past decade. As in the rest of the country, transaction numbers have not recovered to the levels seen in the preglobal recession peak but have improved steadily over the past three years. In 2015 a little over 6,700 transactions were recorded, just over 50% of the 2006 peak of just over 13,000, though almost in line with the ten-year annual average. 4
Figure 1: Manchester residential sales 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Land Registry An increasing number of people are choosing to live in the regional centre, with the population rising from 7,000 in 2001 to 25,000 in 2016. This trend is set to continue, with around 50,000 new homes anticipated to be needed by 2040. Household projections and demographic trends suggest that future demand for flats is likely to be considerable. The regional centre housing market is dominated by flats, sales of which have accounted for over 95% of total sales over the past decade. Flat sales averaged 2,177 in the period 2006-15, which includes the years of market downturn following the global recession. The market has gathered momentum over the past three years with annual sales averaging 2,235. Figure 2: Residential sales v flat sales within Manchester regional centre 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 All sales Flat sales Source: Land Registry 5
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Manchester Report

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