GSN_Sep_Final_Yumpu

Presidential Memorandum on
climate change
Continued from page 4
climate change, as understood by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, could credibly affect national
security.
These six pathways are:
• Threats to the stability of countries
• Heightened social and political
tensions
• Adverse effects on food prices and
availability
• Increased risks to human health
• Negative impacts on investments
and economic competitiveness
• Potential climate discontinuities
and secondary surprises
Climate change and conflict collide
in the context of complex scenarios
where extreme weather and greater
climatic changes intersect with social,
political, and economic factors. For
example, the assessment suggests that
“rapid sequences of relatively modest
weather events may cause more damage
than very powerful single events”
because the threat to stability is largely
a factor of a “state’s capacity to respond
and recover.” Resilience is a powerful
predictor of stability in a world undergoing
dramatic changes in the climate
system.
The assessment notes the example of
Yemen. Unusually warm conditions in
the Arabian Sea last year produced an
unprecedented two tropical cyclones
in the span of 10 days, including the
first hurricane-strength storm to hit
the country in recorded history. The
compounding effect of the storms,
existing water
shortages, and
humanitarian
crises due to
war paralyzed
relief efforts.
Finally, heavy
rains bred an
abnormally
large locust population with the potential
to devastate the agricultural
sector. Had these events occurred over
a longer timeline, the government and
NGOs may have been able to provide
better relief, but these efforts were
simply overwhelmed by the cluster of
disasters.
Resource availability, particularly
aggregate supply of water and arable
land, could also become a key factor
in disputes between local groups. The
assessment cites small-scale incidents
within national borders, such as conflicts
between agriculturalists and pastoralists
in Nigeria, violence between
citizens and police on the outskirts of
water-stressed Mexico City, and mass
protests and violence over water shortages
in Mauritania, as recent examples.
And in situations where food aid
is needed, access to food could be used
as a tool of control by terrorists, such
as Al Shabaab’s exploitation during the
2011-13 famine in Somalia.
Anticipating New Challenges
The National Intelligence Council also
identified several emerging threats.
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The assessment anticipates that sudden
extreme events and slow onset
events alike will displace an increasing
number of
people, some
temporarily
and some permanently.
The
authors judge
that “over 20
years, the net
effects of climate
change on the patterns of global
human movement and statelessness
could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented.
If unanticipated, they could
overwhelm government infrastructure
and resources, and threaten the social
fabric of communities.”
Climate change will transform how
we navigate the world and the accessibility
of large, unexploited natural
resource reserves. The Arctic region,
with its double-time warming, is opening
up new avenues for shipping – and
geopolitical dispute. Already, there is
disagreement over Russia’s claims on
the Arctic Shelf. There is also concern
over the impact of thawing permafrost
on infrastructure, particularly the
China-Russia crude oil pipeline.
In the arena of climate diplomacy,
there are risks of conflict over climate
responses. The possibility of unintended
“backdraft” from climate actions,
taken unilaterally or with limited
consultation, and the unknown
consequences of geoengineering raise
questions over what sorts of future actions
can and should be pursued.
In conjunction with these changes,