World Energy Scenarios

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WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | SCENARIOS 2.4.1.1 Strong National Governments Geopolitical tensions run high as developed regions react to the global migration challenge and weaker economic performance with nationalist and protectionist policies. Political systems all over the world experience extreme pressure. Continued instability plagues LAC, MENA and some parts of SSA as well. In the EU, fragmentation and the migration crisis challenge regional cooperation. In fact, the UNHCR statistics below indicate the current crisis may only be the tip of the iceberg. JUST HOW BIG IS THE MIGRATION CHALLENGE? IN 2015, UNHCR REPORTED: • 65.3mn forcibly displaced people • 21.3mn refugees fleeing wars and persecution (50% under 18) • 2.5mn asylum requests pending, of which, 1.3mn are in EUR Source: UNHCR In the US, divisions in political parties strain global relationships. Developing regions are increasingly disenchanted with The Washington Consensus and instead look to the Chinese archetype of state-controlled economic growth. Shifting political systems provide substantial benefits on a national level, but lead to a lack of global cooperation which, in turn, limits global competitiveness. Dampened economic growth limits funding capacity for social programs and renewables support schemes, and governments must use top-down mandates to balance environmental sustainability, energy equity and security concerns. The result is occasional economic losses for industry. Government RD&D investments concentrate on national interests, and some regions successfully develop breakthrough solutions to complex local issues such as the <strong>Energy</strong>, Water, and Food nexus (EWF). However, low global cooperation means some technology development happens in isolation, with many countries working on the same issues but not always collaborating to optimize outcomes. Technology areas of emphasis for RD&D include: • Electricity and power • Nuclear energy • <strong>Energy</strong>, Water and Food (EWF) • Solar and wind energy • Quantum computing • Cyber security 74
2.4.1.2 Societal Values Societal values are widely different across geographic and socioeconomic groups. Among young urban dwellers, communities seek to build a more sustainable and resilient future locally. With pollution continuing to negatively affect public health and growing issues with structural unemployment, the public demands more stringent regulation of industries and more requirements for creating local benefits from operations. Consumers also increasingly want products and services that are customised for local contexts. Lower migration options and wage stagnation in the private sector make careers with NGOs and in public administration more attractive to young talent, which produces a new generation of policy leaders. Young people increasingly engage in local politics and seek strong and competent government at all levels to consider how to proactively mitigate systemic risks. In the face of rapid demographic, technological and political changes, some groups pursue self-preservation via rather self-centred and competitive ways, increasingly pressuring governments to provide protection from perceived threats. This leads to support for nationalist and protectionist policies. In some regions, this translates into ageing populations that are less willing to tolerate the erosion of safety nets and loss of control over immigration that has accompanied unchecked globalisation. In other regions, wage stagnation and other socio-economic challenges make low-income citizens less willing to pay more to subsidise cleaner energy generation. 2.4.1.3 Local Business Models Businesses must navigate increasing complexity to expand their global footprint. With growing fragmentation, each region has increasingly disparate values and, therefore, requirements for entry and their own strong governance system to enforce them. Consumers and companies also take advantage of the lack of policy coverage over e-commerce transactions to work around requirements and restrictions. Companies with sufficient resources learn to navigate the challenges and balance conflicting demands from one region to the next by allowing flexibility in local operations and adopting a new focus on local solutions. Leading multi-national companies overcome an increasingly fragmented global marketplace by: • Engaging with local communities • Employing and training local staff • Developing local knowledge • Adapting global best practices to local context • Developing new technologies for local needs • Tailoring customer offerings to local context • Managing reputational risk 2.4.1.4 State-Owned Enterprises The period begins with governments, not private shareholders, already owning the worlds’ largest oil companies and controlling three-quarters of the world’s energy reserves. Sovereign wealth funds account for one-eighth of global investment, and that figure is rising. These trends reshape the global economy by increasingly transferring economic power and influence to the central authority of the state. 75
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World Energy Scenarios 2016 l THE G
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PREFACE The World Energy Council ha
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The ability to incorporate the wide
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COMPARATIVE SUMMARY 90 Introduction
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Many lessons can be learned from th
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the destruction of vast amounts of
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Chapter one The ‘Grand Transition
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1.2 FACTORS THAT SHAPED WORLD ENERG
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Figure 2: Energy Use and Income Per
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1.2.5 ENERGY POLICIES AND THE ROLE
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1.3.2.2 New technologies New techno
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Page 41 and 42: Carbon intensity of GDP falls at an
Page 43 and 44: 2.2.5.1 Energy Demand 2.2.5.1.1 Fin
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Page 91 and 92: 3.1 INTRODUCTION The previous secti
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Page 109 and 110: Chapter four Appendix 109
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Page 113 and 114: GLOSSARY Acronym Definition % perce
Page 115 and 116: REFERENCES 1. Accenture Strategy, 2
Page 117 and 118: DATA TABLES MODERN JAZZ TABLE 21: M
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TABLE 37: UNFINISHED SYMPHONY OIL I
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TABLE 41: HARD ROCK TOTAL FINAL CON
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TABLE 45: HARD ROCK COAL IN TPES BY
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METHODOLOGY PROCESS Methodology 1 A
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References BGR (2016): Reserves, Re
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THE GRAND TRANSITION ACCENTURE STRA
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World Energy Scenarios, published b
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